Fama French For Indian Market
Fama French For Indian Market
Fama French For Indian Market
&
CA Aarsh Dua
Manager, Corporate Finance
HCL Technologies Ltd.
(External Supervisor)
Executive Summary
The aim of this project is to test the efficiency of Carhart four factor model
in Indian equity market over the period of 3 years from April 2011-March
2014. The comparative performances of capital asset pricing model
(CAPM), Fama-French three factor model, and Fama-French four factor
model is also examined. Each of these three models is regressed on 5
different sets of portfolios, i.e., monthly excess returns of five portfolios
each of size, B/M, momentum and six portfolios each of size-B/M and sizemomentum are used as dependent variables in time-series regressions.
Confronted with the excess returns of the portfolios, the Carhart 4 factor
model outperforms both CAPM and Fama French three factor model based
on the results of adjusted R-squared values and minimum pricing error in
the models.
Contents
Certificate
Acknowledgement
Executive Summary....................................................................................1
List of Tables................................................................................................3
1. Introduction...........................................................................................4
1.1 Objective............................................................................................4
1.2 Project structure.................................................................................4
2. Literature review...................................................................................5
2.1 Theoretical Background......................................................................5
2.2 Research paper...................................................................................7
3. Data and Methodology..........................................................................8
3.1 Portfolios formation for calculating SMB, HML and WML....................8
3.2 Calculation of four factors (Rm Rf, SMB, HML and WML)...................9
3.3 Calculation of four factors free from correlation...............................10
3.4 Portfolios formation for dependent variables of regression..............11
3.5 Regression analysis..........................................................................11
4. Findings and discussion.......................................................................12
5. Summary and Conclusion....................................................................18
Bibliography..............................................................................................19
List of Tables
Correlation matrix of original 4 factors
Correlation matrix after auxiliary regression
Regression summary for CAPM model
Regression summary for Fama French 3 factor model
Regression summary for Carhart 4 factor model
Comparison of goodness of fit for all three models
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1. Introduction
Asset pricing has always been one of the main areas of modern financial
economics. It can be claimed that the introduction of capital asset pricing
model (CAPM) by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), and Black (1972) made a
breakthrough in the area of financial economics. Even today, it is apparent
that the CAPM is one of the most widely used models among
academicians and practitioners. The fact that CAPM can be used in
performance evaluation, estimating the cost of capital, selecting
portfolios, and measuring abnormal returns etc., is one of the main
reasons why this model is so much appreciated. Despite its popularity and
success, since its introduction there have always been criticism, with
claims that CAPM is not sufficient to explain the variations in excess
returns. In line with this argument Fama and French (1992, 1993 and
1996) showed that there is a relationship between size and average return
on one side, and B/M and average return on the other side. Moving from
this claim, they laid the foundations of their three factor model by adding
two more risk factors to CAPM. Fama-French model gained big importance
in modern finance as CAPM. Carhart constructed his own 4 factor model
(1997) using Fama and French 3 factor model and Jagadeesh and Titmans
(1993) one year momentum anomaly and found that adding momentum
factor noticeably reduced pricing errors.
1.1 Objective
The main aim of this project is to examine how well CAPM, Fama and
French 3 factor model and Carhart 4 factor model capture average returns
for portfolios formed on size, value, momentum, size-value and sizemomentum. For examining the efficiency of these models, hypotheses to
be tested are significance of intercept term, coefficients of all four factors
and goodness of fit (adjusted R2) for all models.
2. Literature review
2.1 Theoretical Background
One of the main attempts of the financial economics has been to describe,
predict or assess the relation between risk and return since 1950s. After
Markowitz introduced his renowned and famous mean-variance model in
1952, many models were developed based on his theorem. One of the
most important models based on his theorem was CAPM (Capital Asset
Pricing Model) which was introduced by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965),
and Black (1972). Since its introduction, it still continues to constitute one
of the cornerstones of modern finance theory. It is widely used in
performance evaluation, estimating the cost of capital, selecting
portfolios, and measuring abnormal returns. To be able to comprehend
CAPM better, we should examine some details about the development and
assumptions of the model. In his paper Capital Asset Prices: Theory of
Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk (1964), William Sharpe put
forward an argument to construct a relation between average return and
standard deviation. He claimed that in equilibrium there will be a simple
linear relationship between the expected return and standard deviation of
return for efficient combinations of risky assets. (Sharpe, 1964). This
relationship was described by beta, which implied the systematic risk.
Each individual asset or portfolio has a beta value, which shows the
riskiness of that asset or portfolio relative to the riskiness of the market. In
other words, this beta shows the level of responsiveness to the
movements in market. The assumptions underlying CAPM are as follows:
1. All investors are single-period expected utility of terminal wealth
maximizers who choose among alternative portfolios on the basis of
mean and variance (or standard deviation) of return.
2. All investors can borrow or lend an unlimited amount at an
exogenously given risk free rate of interest and there are no
restrictions on short sales of any asset.
3. All investors have identical subjective estimates of the means,
variances and covariance of return among all assets.
4. All assets are perfectly divisible and perfectly liquid, i.e., all assets are
marketable and there are no transaction costs.
5. There are no taxes.
6. All investors are price takers.
7. The quantities of all assets are given (Jensen, 1972).
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1 Companies with negative book to market ratio are also included in low book to
market companies for calculating HML.
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Find the monthly returns for all the companies by using formula:
R1 = (P1 P0)/P0
Where
R1 is return for 1st month
P1 is stock price for 1st month
P0 is stock price for month 0.
Thus using this formula monthly returns for all the companies are
calculated.
For SMB calculation, average returns for all the small companies and
large companies are calculated. The difference between average
return of small companies and avg. return for large companies is
SMB factor for each month.
SMB = Avg. return of small companies Avg. return of large
companies
2 All of 4 factors are independent of each other, i.e., SMB is not impacted by
value and momentum and similarly HML and WML depend only on value and
momentum returns respectively.
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Hence now all values are very small except -0.01133 and 0.0598. These
values are tested for 5% level of significance and t test is performed.
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p values
Portfolio
size sorted
Big
p2
p3
p4
Small
intercep
t (a)
8.64E05
0.00019
0.00201
7
0.00040
1
0.02754
coefficie
nt Rm-Rf
(b)
(a)
(b
)
1.181
0.9642
1.263
0.9508
1.245
0.715
1.362
1.138
0.9492
0.0001
0
0
Adj.
R
squa
re
0.95
4
0.90
8
0.84
6
0.86
5
0.69
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High b/m
P2
value (B/M)
sorted
P3
P4
low b/m
Winner
p2
momentu
m sorted
p3
p4
Loser
big - high
b/m
big - neutral
size b/m
sorted
size
momentu
m sorted
0.00592
2
0.00199
5
0.00601
6
0.00625
6
0.01899
9
0.01366
7
0.00886
1
0.00126
3
0.01138
7
0.00403
3
0.00494
4
0.00063
3
0.00347
9
0.00829
6
0.01091
1
0.03478
4
1.656
0.3284
1.365
0.7024
1.270
0.2679
1.003
0.0604
0.836
0.0607
0.941
0.0024
0.838
0.0144
1.134
0.7729
1.291
0.2311
1.927
0.5793
1.737
0.381
1.357
0.850
0.862
0.262
1.493
0.206
1.073
0.113
0.961
0.051
winner - big
0.007
0.893
0.0376
neutral - big
-0.002
1.111
0.5336
loser - big
winner small
neutral small
-0.002
1.864
0.6488
0.019
0.937
0.0049
0.008
1.101
0.2451
0.020
1.584
0.0504
loser- small
0.85
4
0.83
1
0.86
6
0.88
4
0.29
2
0.76
2
0.85
9
0.87
4
0.48
4
0.85
6
0.83
8
0.91
9
0.86
7
0.83
1
0.73
9
0.13
6
0.85
0
0.92
4
0.85
3
0.70
2
0.77
0
0.51
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For Fama and French 3 factor model, the results obtained are as follows;
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Size effect
CAPM results show that the extra normal returns (after adjusting for
market risk) is 2.7% per month for small stock and 0.008% per month for
large stock portfolios. Small stock portfolios earn statistically significantly
positive extra risk adjusted returns confirming the size effect.
There has been no substantial difference between beta coefficient of small
and large stock portfolios which indicates that market risk of small firms is
not substantially larger than that of large firms. This is the reason why
CAPM fails to explain size effect.
Adjusted R2 is low for small stock portfolios vis-a-vis large stocks showing
that the portfolios of small stocks have a very large unexplained variation
in their returns. Fama-French 4 factor regressions show that both SMB
coefficients are significant.
However these factors only partially explain the size effect, as the small
size portfolio still provides an abnormal return of -1.4% per month which is
statistically significant. Thus FF 4 factor model fails for small companies.
Value effect
The market model results show that the intercept value is low for the low
B/M portfolio as compared to the high B/M portfolio, suggesting that low
P/B stocks generate higher CAPM based risk adjusted extra normal returns
during the study period. However, CAPM is unable to absorb cross
sectional differences on value sorted portfolios.
The h coefficient is negative (-0.686) for low BE/ME and positive (0.629)
for high BE/ME confirming the presence of value effect. The value effect is
very high and is very significant in explaining the portfolios.
Momentum effect
CAPM results show that intercepts for winner portfolios are statistically
significant. My findings confirm that market factor does not explain
momentum. This could be attributed to the fact that there is very small
difference in betas of the corner portfolios
The intercept of the winner portfolio is significant and provides an
abnormal return of 1.367% per month. The FF model fails to capture
momentum owing to the fact that loser portfolio tends to load more
heavily on value factor compared to winners portfolio which is in contrast
to risk theory.
Winner portfolio should have comprised of more distressed high B/M
stocks for providing a risk explanation. So winner stocks are growth
stocks. Further there is no significant difference between the sensitivity of
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winner and loser portfolios to the size factor. WML factor is significant
under 5% level of significance in Indian market returns.
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Bibliography
Carhart Mark M. (1997), On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance, the
Journal of Finance
Sehgal Sanjay, Subramaniam Srividya, and Laurence Porteu De La
Morandiere (2012), A Search for Rational Sources of Stock Return
Anomalies: Evidence from India, International Journal of Economics and
Finance Vol. 4
Eugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. French (2011), Size, value, and momentum
in international stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics, SciVerse
Science Direct website
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