Auh EAD GHG Executive Summary Report-En Final

GREENHOUSE
GAS INVENTORY
AND PROJECTIONS
FOR ABU DHABI
EMIRATE
Executive Summary of the Fourth Cycle
April 2021
GREENHOUSE
GAS INVENTORY
AND PROJECTIONS
FOR ABU DHABI
EMIRATE
Executive Summary of the Fourth Cycle
April 2021
© Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi (EAD) 2021
Greenhouse gas inventory and projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate-

Executive Summary of the Fourth Cycle, Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in

a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic,
electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or
otherwise, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Photography:
ADNOC
Emirates Global Aluminium
iStock
Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi
Prepared and designed by:

Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi
P.O. Box 45553, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Tel: +971-2-6934444
Fax: +971-2-4463339
[email protected]
www.ead.gov.ae
We are able to achieve the desired balance between growth
and preservation of the environment, in the sustainability of
its resources, and the preservation of its biological diversity, to
ensure a clean and safe green environment that contributes to
providing prosperity, well-being, health, stability and happiness
for us and for future generations.
His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan

President of UAE
5
I commend the efforts of the Abu Dhabi Environment Agency
for the greenhouse gas inventories of the Abu Dhabi Emirate
that will help further strengthen the base of knowledge needed
to address climate change in the context of Abu Dhabi’s diverse
and rapidly growing economy, and help the emirate fulfil its
commitments to the UNFCCC.
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UNFCCC

(2016-present)
7
Table of Contents
Foreword 11
01 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

DPSIR Analysis
13
14
05 Industrial Processes Sector Emissions
5.1 Sources of GHG Emissions in the Industrial Processes Sector
55
57
State of Climate Change 14 5.2 Trend of GHG Emissions in the Industrial Processes Sector 59
Drivers and Pressures 14 5.3 GHG Emission Projections for the Industrial Processes Sector 62
Impacts 14
Response
Outlook
15
15
06 Agriculture Sector Emissions
6.1 Sources of GHG Emissions in the Agriculture Sector
65
67
6.2 Trend of GHG Emissions in the Agriculture Sector 68
02 Scope and Method

2.1 GHG Inventory
17
18
6.3 GHG Emission Projections for the Agriculture Sector 71
2.2 GHG Projections 20

07 Land-Use Change and Forestry Sector Emissions and Removals
7.1 Sinks of CO2 Removals in the Land-Use Change and Forestry Sector
73
75
03 Total Emissions
3.1 Trend of GHG Emissions
23
24
7.2 Potential Emissions from Wetlands
7.3 Trend of CO2 Removals in the Land-Use Change and Forestry Sector
76
77
3.2 Sources of Emissions 26
3.3 Emission Indicators
3.4 Inventory Verification and Uncertainty Level
33
37
08 Waste Sector Emissions
8.1 Sources of GHG Emissions in the Waste Sector
79
81
3.5 Projection of GHG Emissions 37 8.2 Trend of GHG Emissions in the Waste Sector 82
8.3 GHG Emission Projections for the Waste Sector 85
04 Energy Sector Emissions 45

4.1 Sources of GHG Emissions in the Energy Sector
4.2 Trend of GHG Emissions in the Energy Sector
47
49
09 Lessons Learned and Recommendations 87
4.3 GHG Emission Projections for the Energy Sector 52

Acknowledgements 90
8 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Table of Contents 9
Forward
The impact of human activities on the global climate has been irrefutably recorded and Abu Dhabi Emirate’s first GHG inventory was established for the baseline year 2010.
documented by the scientific community. According to the Intergovernmental Panel The second and the third cycles of GHG inventories targeted data from the years 2012,
on Climate Change (IPCC), human activities result in emissions of greenhouse gases 2014 and 2016 and established emission projections for 2030. This fourth cycle of
(GHGs) which accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to increase with Abu Dhabi’s GHG inventory involved updates of GHG data for the year 2018, and
time. Significant increases in all of these gases have been recorded during the industrial projections of emissions for up to 2030.
era and these increases are attributable to human activities.
Those inventories were instrumental in laying a foundation of knowledge regarding
National and international efforts to reduce the human impact on the global climate the baseline emissions and projections in the emirate, and also in strengthening the
rely on knowing the quantity of emissions released and of the carbon absorbed as capacity of local entities for efficiently tracking and reporting their sectors’ emissions.
a result of human intervention. GHG inventories provide information that is vital for the The emirate-level GHG inventories enable development of emirate-level climate
design of policies and measures to both reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the policies and also support the federal government in fulfilling its commitments to the
atmosphere and to enhance their removal in forests and other lands. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by enhancing the
robustness of the UAE’s National GHG Inventory, National Communication and Biennial
Air quality and climate change in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi have been the focus of Update Report submissions.
the authorities for decades. In line with its strategic priority to secure the resilience of
Abu Dhabi through mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and protection of air This report provides an executive summary of the achievements and key findings of the
and marine water, the Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi (EAD) was pro-active in 4th cycle of the GHG inventory and emission projections compiled using the best available
commencing biennial GHG inventories as part of its comprehensive plan for monitoring data, standard methods and best practices in compliance with the Intergovernmental
atmospheric emissions in the emirate. Abu Dhabi’s diverse and rapidly growing economy Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines.
calls for conducting a comprehensive GHG inventory to ensure a proper basis upon
which to form policy and make decisions.
10 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Forward 11
1
CLIMATE
CHANGE AND
GREENHOUSE
GASES
12 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 1: Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases 13
DPSIR Analysis
State of Climate Change Response

Climate change is already being felt globally. Effects include higher air and water The Government of the UAE is fully committed to the UNFCCC negotiating process.
temperatures; lower precipitation levels; and a rise in sea level, seawater acidity and The UAE National Agenda has set a target for clean energy to contribute 27 % of the
salinity. Acidity levels in the Arabian Gulf are increasing at a faster rate than most other country’s total energy mix by 2021. In response to the climate pledges to the Paris
oceanic waters around the world. Abu Dhabi Emirate’s marine biodiversity is impacted Agreement, UAE has defined its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that
State of Climate Change
by a variety of stressors, including coastal development, over-exploitation, habitat reflect enhanced ambition with the inclusion of an economy-wide emission reduction
Temperature increase,
fragmentation and pollution. target (23.5 % GHG reduction by 2030 relative to business-as-usual). The UAE Energy
sea level rise, acidity and
Strategy aims to increase the contribution of clean energy to 50 % by 2050. The national salinity increase,
energy strategy sets a target to reduce CO2 from the power system by 70 % and to precipitation change
Drivers and Pressures improve energy consumption efficiency by the residential and commercial sector
by 40 %. In recent years, new policies have been introduced in the electricity and
The main drivers for the increasing pressure exerted by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions water sector in Abu Dhabi, which aim to curb consumption through a reduction
in Abu Dhabi Emirate are rapid growth in population as well as economic development, of subsidies and the introduction of incentives to increase end-user efficiency.
coupled with an ever-increasing demand for water and energy. The main source of GHG New policies have also been introduced in the transportation sector to reduce Drivers and Impact
emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels for electricity and water, oil and gas, and emissions through a comprehensive surface masterplan, low emission zones and vehicle Pressures Marine and terrestrial
transportation. efficiency standards. Population and economic habitat quality and
growth, high demand of food security
energy and water, and
Impacts Outlook
associated GHG emissions
Abu Dhabi Emirate is particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to Existing plans and proposed strategies for sustainable development ensure that
its extreme arid climate and low-lying coastal areas. The emirate’s exposure to storm- Abu Dhabi Emirate will achieve significant GHG reductions in the mid-term. The emirate
induced erosion and flooding could be affected, with concomitant impacts on coastal has undertaken a number of measures to tackle this issue, including tariff reform; Response
infrastructure and habitats. The Arabian Gulf is already one of the most stressed marine green building regulations and efficiency standards; district cooling; a new fuel pricing Increase contribution of
environments on earth. Changes in habitat quality and primary production may also economy; and a federal freight network. However, the potential for change should not be clean energy and
affect productivity for fisheries. Increased salinity, temperature and acidity levels are introduce new
underestimated and adaptation to the impacts of climate change should be emphasized
all expected to take their toll on the marine environment as a result of climate change. transportation policies
in the future development plans.
Increased aridity and recent climate-driven changes in vegetation are also likely to
impact local agriculture, bird species and a wide range of desert animals. Climate change
may also have significant impacts on public health, the specificities of which are the
subject of ongoing research.
14 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 1: Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases 15
2
SCOPE
AND
METHOD
16 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 2: Scope and Method 17
2.1 GHG Inventory
CO2 CH4 N20 HFCs PFCs SF6
Compiling a GHG inventory can be described as the systematic approach to record
and account for the contribution of human activities to global net GHG emissions.
The quality of the inventory data relies on the use of appropriate methods, reliable CARBON METHANE NITROUS HYDROFLUORO PERFLUORO SULFUR
statistical information and representative factors to derive emissions and removals. DIOXIDE OXIDE CARBONS CARBONS HEXAFLUORIDE
Following the IPCC Guidelines for GHG national inventories, the inventory targeted
both direct emissions (carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxide (N2O),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 )) and
indirect emissions (carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2 )
and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)) from the economic activities
CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs BC
in the energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste as well as land-use change and
forestry sectors.
In addition, anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emissions were studied in the fourth cycle CARBON NITROGEN SULFUR ORGANIC BLACK
as potent climate-warming components (460–1 500 times stronger than CO2 per unit of
MONOXIDE OXIDES DIOXIDE COMPOUNDS CARBON
mass) using the North American Black Carbon Emissions Estimation Guidelines. Carbon
sequestration and storage by the Abu Dhabi wetlands, particularly mangroves and
seagrass, was estimated using the 2013 IPCC Wetlands Supplement.
Sectors’ activity data was collected in close collaboration with the relevant local
authorities and data sources. Several face-to-face meetings were held with stakeholders.
Significant data were collected, crossed-checked and validated from different data
sources using sectoral questionnaires. The encountered data gaps were resolved by the
justified assumptions.
GHG
inventories
Energy Sector Industrial Processes Agriculture Sector Land-Use Change and Waste Sector
Emissions Sector Emissions Emissions Forestry Sector Emissions
Emissions and Removals
2.2 GHG Projections
Two sectoral inventory iterations were performed for the inventory year 2018; the
primary iteration followed the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines coupled with the Good
Practice Guidance, and the complementary iteration followed the 2006 IPCC Guidelines
coupled with the 2013 IPCC Wetlands Supplement. The complementary iteration allowed
verification of the inventory results by comparable standard method and provided In addition to emission inventory updates for 2018, the future GHG emissions up to
analysis on the effect of the method and emission factors updates. It also allowed the year 2030 were studied. Two emission scenarios were projected and analysed by
calculation of the CO2 removals and storage by the mangroves and seagrass sinks. sector and subsector: a Business-As-Usual scenario as per the state of emissions and
Abu Dhabi Emirate was among the first worldwide to conduct an inventory incorporating implemented mitigation measures in the year 2016 (BAU2016); and a “Mitigation Path”
the 2013 IPCC Wetlands Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. scenario as per the state of actual emissions in 2018 with extended emission control
policies and plans.
The GHG emission projections were developed using the best available population,
economic and sector activity growth data . A set of announced government mitigation
IPCC Guidelines policies and development plans for 2030 in the emirate were analysed. The potentials of
for National emission reductions by the Mitigation Path scenario were assessed against the BAU2016
GHG Inventories scenario. Also, the avoided cost of environmental damages and the health co-benefits of Renewable Transport Waste Industry energy
those emission reductions were quantified. energy plan management efficiency
The sectoral bottom-up approach was adopted for estimation of the GHG emissions, The mitigation policies and plans that were analysed include:1
while the reference top-down approach was used for verification of the CO2 emissions • Nuclear energy programme.
from fuel combustion.
• Renewable energy programme.
GHG emissions were calculated and analysed by sector, subsector and gas using the • Electricity and water demand side management (DSM) programme.
UNFCCC non-Annex I GHG inventory spreadsheets and the IPCC 2006 inventory • Surface transport master plan (demand strategies and high efficiency vehicles).
software combined with the IPCC emission factor database. A key category analysis
• Oil and gas energy efficiency, environment, health and safety (EHS) programmes.
was performed to identify the main sources that are responsible for 95 % of total direct
GHG emissions in the emirate. The uncertainty level in the inventory year 2018 and • Waste sustainable management programme. Studied
the uncertainty in the historical emissions trend were estimated using the 2006 IPCC • Carbon capture and storage project.
Guidelines (error propagation approach) and the IPCC default uncertainty factors. • Energy efficiency programmes in industry.
Strategies
For the inventory benchmark, five emission indicators were assessed for Abu Dhabi
Details of the input data, scenario assumptions, mitigation practices and projection
Emirate following the international best practices; CO2 per capita, CO2 per GDP, CO2
calculations are presented in the technical report “Greenhouse Gas Inventory and
per kWh electricity produced, GHG per GDP intensity growth rate (EPI index), and CO2
Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate- Technical Basis & Results of the Fourth Cycle”.
growth rate (EPI index). Comparison of emission indicators with some selected
countries and regions was performed using the emissions and economic data from
the international data sources such as IEA, WB, IMF, WRI, EDGAR, and Yale Center for
Environmental Law & Policy.
Details of the input data and inventory calculations are presented in the technical report
“Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate- Technical Basis & Nuclear Electricity and Oil and gas Carbon capture
Results of the Fourth Cycle”. 1
Data collection for the 4th inventory and projection cycle was completed in February 2020, therefore, the impact of energy water DSM energy efficiency and storage
COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities was not considered in the studied projections.
3
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
22 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 3: Total Emissions 23
3.1 Trend of GHG Emissions
Anthropogenic GHG emissions in Abu Dhabi Emirate have been driven largely by Compared with the emissions level in 2016, the 2018 emissions were decreased by
economic and population growth and the increasing demand for water and energy. 11 % mainly due to the lower fuel quantities used in operation of the transport, oil and gas
The emirate’s GHG baseline (2010) and update inventories for 2012, 2014, 2016 and activities, and to the improved emission factors in aluminium production processes.
2018 have shown that total direct GHG emissions increased by 21.5 %, from 99 101
Gg CO2-eq in the year 2010 to 120 405 Gg CO2-eq in 2018 (Figure 3.1). The trend of
emissions (2.8 % average annual growth) was in line with the trend of the emirate’s
population (4 %) and GDP (4 %, constant 2007 prices). GHG emissions have shown good
correlations with both the population (0.91) and the GDP (0.87). 160 000 160 000
140 000 140 000
120 000 120 000
GHGs 100 000 100 000
Gg CO2 -eq
Gg CO2 -eq
80 000 80 000
60 000 60 000
40 000 40 000
20 000 20 000
0 0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
4% 4% 2.8 % Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste CO2 CH4 N 2O F-Gases

Population GDP GHG
annual growth annual growth annual growth
Figure ‎3.1: Trend of Sectoral and Total GHG Emissions in Abu Dhabi Emirate.
3.2 Sources of Emissions
Across the different activities in energy, industrial processes, agriculture, land-use change and forestry (LUCF) and waste, the energy sector was the dominant contributor (75.9 %) of
the emirate’s GHG emissions in 2018 (Table 3.1, Figure 3.2).
CO2 CH4 N2O PFCs2 HFCs SF6
75.9 %
Energy Sector
0.00364 (CF4) GHG Emissions
Gas quantity (Gg) 108 199.07 450.17 5.57 0.0015 0.0416
0.000347 (C2F6)
6 500 (CF4)
Global Warming potential (IPCC-SAR) 1 21 310 3 800 23 900
9 200 (C2F6)
70.0 % 0.6 %
9.6 % Other energy
Percentage of total emissions (%)

60.0 % Transport
Gas quantity (Gg CO2-eq) 108 199 9 454 1 727 26.83 5.78 993.26
50.0 %
40.0 %
Gas contribution (%) 89.9 % 7.9 % 1.4 % 0.9% 12.3 %
30.0 % Manufacturing 34.6 %
industries Electricity
20.0 % and Water
Table 3
‎ .1: GHG Emissions in Abu Dhabi Emirate, 2018
10.0 %
0.0 %
16.7 % 5.3 % 2.1 % 75.9 % 18.8 %

Industrial Waste Agriculture Energy Oil and Gas
processes
2
EAD estimation of PFCs was based on the EGA’s local emission factors for their production lines in Abu Dhabi.
Figure ‎3.2: Sources of GHG Emissions in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018
The key category analysis of GHG emissions in the emirate showed that the CO2 emissions attributed to energy industries (oil, gas and power, combined with water desalination), Considering the amount of emitted GHG gases in the emirate and their global warming potential (according to IPCC Second Assessment Report), CO2 was the major gas mainly emitted
manufacturing, road transport and metal industrial processes require particular attention in mitigation plans (Figure 3.3). from fuel combustion, constituting 89.8 % of the total GHG emissions. Other GHG gases such as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the F-gases (PFCs, HFCs, SF6) contributed
less: 7.9 %, 1.4 %, and 0.9 % respectively (Figure 3.4).
Abu Dhabi Emirate's Total GHGs

120 405 Gg CO2-eq 41679 41564
GHGs Electricity and Water

20704
Oil and Gas
Key sources of Transport

ENERGY CO2
emissions (75.9%) 14807 (89.8%)
Manufacturing
706 705
Other energy
1972 1972
Fugitive emissions
CH4
3441 3441 (7.9%)
Mineral products
60.0 % 51.7 % INDUSTRIAL 2117
PROCESSES Chemical Industry
Energy industries (oil, gas and power, Manufacturing Road Metal industrial (16.7%) 13581
Metal production
13554
50.0 % combined with water desalination)
Percentage of total emissions (%)
industries transport processes 27

999 Consumption of N2O
HFCs & SF6 993 (1.4%)
40.0 %
954
Enteric fermentation
222 154
30.0 % AGRICULTURE Manure management
(2.1%) PFCs
1301 1301
Agricultural soils (0.03%) PFCs
20.0 % 12.3 %
5950
9.4 % 9.3 % 5950
MSW disposal
4.9 % 376 310
10.0 % 1.9 % 1.7 % 1.6 % 1.5 % 1.2 % WASTE Wastewater handling
HFCs
(5.3%) HFCs
4
Waste incineration 3 (0.01%)
0.0 % - 2493
CO 2 from CO 2 from CO 2 from CO 2 from CH 4 from CO 2 from CO 2 from CH 4 Fugitive CO 2 from CO 2 from Forestry & Settlements
Stationary Manufacturing Road Iron/ Steel Solid Waste Aluminum Ammonia from Oil/ gas Limestone/ Cement LAND USE & - 832
Palm & Fruit trees SF6 SF6
Combustion Vehicles Disposal Production Production Operations Dolomite Use Production FORESTRY
(0.83%)
(CO2 Removals) - 911
Mangroves
CH 4 CO2
Figure ‎3.3: Key Category Analysis of GHG Emissions in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018
Figure ‎3.4: Abu Dhabi Emirate’s GHG Sankey diagram for 2018.
In 2018, between 4 236 to 5 240 Gg of CO2 emissions (≤5.5 % of the emirate’s total CO2 For the indirect GHG emissions (Figure 3.5), the IPCC estimation method showed
emissions) were sequestered by the extensive natural system of forests, perennial that the main source of NOx and CO was fuel combustion activities, while the main
croplands and mangrove plantations throughout the emirate (Table 3.2). source of NMVOCs was mineral products (asphalt), and the main source of SOx was
Carbon sinks in Abu Dhabi oil and gas activities.
Carbon sequestration3
Plantation type
(Gg CO2)
Forests and Settlement trees 2 493 – 3 115 800
700
Wetlands (Mangroves) 911
600
Perennials cropland
832–753
(Palm and Fruit trees)
Gg of emission
500
Harvested Wood Products 461 400
Total 4 236 – 5 240 300
200
Table 3
‎ .2: Carbon Sequestration by Vegetation, 2018
100
According to the IPCC supplement for wetlands, the added value of Abu Dhabi Emirate’s 0
wetlands (mangroves and seagrass meadows) is in holding about 61 324 Gg of CO2, NOx CO NMVOCs SOx
where carbon is stored in the soil and biomass of the plants. This maximum potential of
emissions may be released if the wetlands are extracted or drained.
NOx CO NMVOCs SOx
5 240 61 324
Figure ‎3.5: Total indirect GHG emissions in 2018 for Abu Dhabi Emirate.
Gg CO2 Gg CO2
Annual sequestration by Stored in Abu Dhabi
Abu Dhabi natural system wetlands
3
2006 IPCC Guidelines provided higher sequestration than IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines.
6 045 28.4 % 3.3 Emission Indicators
For black carbon (BC) emissions as potent climate-warming, the estimates showed 6 045
tonnes released in 2018 in Abu Dhabi Emirate. Diesel fuel combustion was the dominant
source of BC emissions. About 1 % of BC emissions came from non-fuel combustion Tonnes
activities (Figure 3.6).
Black carbon released in 2018 Abu Dhabi contribution
Abu Dhabi’s contribution to world total GHG emissions is quite small and did not emissions), oil and gas extraction and processing (19 %), manufacturing and industrial
Compared with the UAE’s total BC emissions in 2014 (21 312 tonnes, latest available data in Abu Dhabi Emirate in UAE total BC emissions
exceed 0.25 % in 2018. Compared with the UAE total GHG emissions5 in 2018, Abu Dhabi processes (31 %) and transport (11 %). Those activities are therefore key areas to target
from EPI 2020 report4), Abu Dhabi contributed to about 28.4 %, assuming comparable Emirate’s GHG emissions accounted for about 56 % of the national GHG emissions in for future improvement in the emirate’s emission indicators.
levels of BC emissions in the years 2014–2018. the year 2018. At a local level, the UAE aims to ensure sustainable development while
preserving the environment, and to achieve a perfect balance between economic and The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) contains a GHG growth indicator, which
social development. However, the per capita CO2 emissions in Abu Dhabi Emirate were represents the average annual GHG intensity growth rate over the period 2010-2018.
Total BC Emissions among the highest in the region, reaching 38.8 tonnes CO2 per capita in 2018, an increase It rates 180 countries6 globally, from the best performing (-0.0673) to the worst
of 4.4 % from the 2010 baseline level. performing (0.0297). Abu Dhabi’s indicator was estimated at -0.054, which translates
to a score of 86, where 100 is for the highest performance. This serves as a signal of
Solid Waste Incineration
While the emission indicator CO2 per GDP in 2018 was similar to the 2010 baseline level, Abu Dhabi’s progress in decoupling emissions from economic growth (Figure 3.7).
at 0.175 kg CO2/AED-constant 2005 prices, the carbon intensity for electricity production
Industrial Processes decreased to 0.39 Kg CO2/kWh in 2018 (a reduction of 16 % from 2010). This reflects the Compared with neighbouring countries in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi Emirate’s emission
switch to a cleaner fossil fuel (natural gas) for electricity and water production in the past indicators linked to the economy or electricity production were low (Figure 3.8 and
Other Transport few years. Figure 3.9). This reflects the effective performance of economic development with low
emission intensities in Abu Dhabi Emirate, and the use of efficient technology and clean
However, the main player in emission indicators is CO2 which is linked to 82 % of fuel fuel compared to other countries in the region. It should be noted that no single indicator
Marine Transport combustion activities. The main activities contributing to 2018’s CO2 emissions were the can provide a complete picture of a country’s CO2 emissions performance or its relative
production of public electricity and water desalination (contributed to 38 % of all CO2 capacity to reduce emissions.
Metric tonne
Rail Transport
Aviation Transport
Road Transport 38.8

CO2 per Capita
Tonnes
Other Energy Activities
Manufacturing & Construction 0.39 kg CO2/kWh

Carbon intensity for electricity
0.175
Oil & Gas activities
Levels of emission
Electricity & Water production kg CO2/AED
indicators in 2018 CO2 per GDP
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000
Figure ‎3.6: Black carbon emissions in 2018 for Abu Dhabi Emirate. 5
Source: EAD estimation using the UAE historical GHG data for 1994–2014 (sourced from MOEI 2000–2018), and the UAE’s GHG average annual growth rate (sourced from EDGAR 2019).
4
2020 Technical Appendix, EPI 2020 (https://epi.yale.edu/). 6
2020 Technical Appendix, EPI 2020 (https://epi.yale.edu/).
EPI performance score of average annual GHG intensity growth rate 2010-2018
(100 for best performance)
0.6
0.5
0.4
kg/ PPP $, 2011 prices

0.3
0.2
0.1
58 68 91 86 87 63 77 0
33 31 33 19 45
China Iran Saudi Kuwait Australia South United Arab World Iraq United Abu Dhabi EU-28 Norway
Arabia Korea Emirates States
USA Norway Iraq Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar UAE Abu Dhabi Iran Australia South Korea China
Figure ‎3.7: GHG Intensity Growth Rate Performance for Abu Dhabi Emirate and Other Countries
Figure ‎3.8: Emission Indicator CO2 per GDP for Abu Dhabi Emirate and Other Countries
3.4 Inventory Verification and
Uncertainty Level
1 400 Verification analysis showed that the emirate’s total GHG emissions in the year 2018
were 3.3 % lower using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, compared with the Revised 1996 IPCC
Guidelines. This is due to the enhanced emission factors, avoided double counting of
1 200 emissions and estimates of actual emissions rather than “potential” by the updated
guidelines.
Verification of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (the major emission contributor)
1 000 showed that the deviation between the Reference top-down and the Sectoral bottom-
up approach of estimation was 0.36 %. The achieved results are consistent with the IPCC
expectation (<5 %).
800 Using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and default uncertainty values, the uncertainty in 2018
(g/ kWh)
total GHG inventory and the uncertainty in emissions trend from 2012 to 2018 were
estimated at 2.9 % and 3.8 % respectively.
600
400
3.5 Projection of GHG Emissions

200
Analysis of emission projections indicates that Abu Dhabi’s total GHG emissions can
reach 254 526 Gg CO2-eq by the year 2030 if the development plans continue according
to the Business-As-Usual scenario as in the year 2016 (BAU2016); an increase by a factor
-
of 2.57 from the baseline level in 2010 (or a factor of 1.88 from 2016 level). In this BAU2016
Iraq Autralia Saudi Kuwait Middle East China UAE Iran World United Abu Dhabi EU- 28 Norway historical scenario, sectoral GHG emissions by the year 2030 can reach 296 %, 176 %,
Arabia States 134 % and 103 % of their baseline levels in the energy, industrial processes, agriculture
and waste sectors, respectively (Figure 3.10).
Figure ‎3.9: Emission Indicator CO2 per kWh for Abu Dhabi Emirate and Other Countries
Analysis of the future opportunities for GHG mitigation shows that the emirate has achieved by considering the emission control measures embedded in the announced
the potential to reduce around 51 % (130 332 Gg CO2-eq) of its “BAU2016” scenario government strategies and sectors’ development plans (listed in Section 2.2), in a so-
emissions by the year 2030, and to stabilise the emirate’s total emissions at a level of called “Mitigation Path” (Figure 3.11).
124 194 Gg CO2-eq by 2030 (8 % lower than the 2016-reference level). This will be
51 %
Total potential of emission reduction by
8%
Emission reduction by 2030
2030 relative to the Business-As Usual level from the 2016-reference level
300 000 300 000
Potential of GHG Reductions by Mitigation Measures in 2030

(Total 130 332 Gg CO2 - eq ; 51%)
Cumulative direct GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)

"BAU2016"
Cumulative direct GHG emissions (Gg Co-2eq)
250 000 250 000
Oil and Gas

31 266 ; 12%
51 %
200 000 200 000
Electricity and Water
56 701 ; 22%
150 000 150 000 Transport

2016-reference level 17 905 ; 7%
8%
Manufacturing & Others
100 000 100 000 11 487 ; 4.5%
Industrial Processes
6 475 ; 2.5%
50 000 50 000 Agriculture
Solid Waste
5 387 ; 2%
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2010 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Wastewater
Oil and Gas Electricity and Water Transport Manufacturing & Others Oil and Gas Electricity and Water Transport Manufacturing & Others
Industrial Processes Agriculture Solid Waste Wastewater Industrial Processes Agriculture Solid Waste Wastewater
Figure ‎3.10: Projected GHG emissions for Abu Dhabi Emirate according to Business-as-Usual 2016 Figure ‎3.11: Projected GHG emissions for Abu Dhabi Emirate according to the Mitigation Path
The largest potential for emission reductions in the year 2030 is expected to come from Projected CO2 per GDP Indicator for Abu Dhabi Emirate
the power sector (combined electricity and water production with DSM, 22 %), followed 1.20
by oil and gas (12 %), transport (7 %), industry (7 %), waste and others (3 %). By the year 66 %
2030, with support of the DSM programme, nuclear and renewables are expected to
contribute around 58 % of the generated electricity in Abu Dhabi Emirate and avoid
60 % 1.00
26 802 Gg of CO2-eq of emissions.
kg CO2 / USD 2005 prices

0.80
As for the emission indicators, after the year 2020 and with extended implementation of 40 %
renewables, energy efficiency, DSM and operation of the nuclear plant (Mitigation Path Mitigated level of 0.60
scenario), it is expected that by the year 2030 the CO2 per capita, CO2 per GDP and emission indicators
CO2 per kWh will drop to 66 %, 60 % and 40 % respectively of the reached 2016-
by 2030 relative to 0.40
reference levels, whilst under the Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU2016), the trend of
emission indicators might slightly increase (Figure 3.12).
2016-reference level
CO2 per CO2 per CO2 per 0.20
capita GDP kWh

0.00
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2016-reference level Mitigation Path
Projected CO2 per Capita Indicator for Abu Dhabi Emirate Projected CO2 Intensity for Electricity and Water Productiuon
60 for Abu Dhabi Emirate
0.80
50 0.70
0.60
40
Tonne CO2 per Capita

0.50
kg CO2 per kWh

20
0.40
20 0.30
0.20
10
0.10
0 0.00
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2016-reference level Mitigation Path 2016-reference level Mitigation Path
Figure ‎3.12: Projections of CO2 emissions indicators for Abu Dhabi Emirate
Analysis also shows that the mitigation strategies will have public health co-benefits Furthermore, the avoided cost of damages8 to the environment due to emission
by improving the air quality through reducing the short-lived gases and anthropogenic reductions in 2030 were estimated in the range of 12.5–15.8 Billion USD.
particulate matter. It is estimated7 that in the year 2030 around 839 premature deaths
and 11 700 health facility visits can be avoided by the mitigation path, compared with the
“BAU2016” scenario.
Health co-benefits
and avoided
cost of damages
due to emission
reductions by 2030 839
Premature deaths
11 700
Healthy facility visits
12.5 -15.8
Billion USD can
can be avoided can be avoided be avoided
However, these projections and analysis will need to be reviewed and updated where 2020 will be lower than the calculated results from the scenario paths presented in this
possible in close collaboration with the relevant stakeholders by using Abu Dhabi- report. The EAD’s impact study of the COVID-19 pandemic on Abu Dhabi’s environment
specific local valuation coefficient factors. showed reductions of about 12 % and 3 % of the emirate’s GHG emissions during the
first and second half of 2020, respectively. At the global level, the international studies9
It should be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic had a direct impact on economic activities estimated a reduction of 7 % of GHG emissions in 2020. However, this impact will be
and consequently on emissions during the year 2020. It is expected that the emissions in reflected in the next inventory cycle when more information is available.
7
Estimates were based on local health co-benefit factors; sourced from the public health co-benefits of GHG mitigation strategies in Abu Dhabi, AGEDI 2016.
8
Social cost of carbon; estimates were based on 2015 valuation coefficients (62–78 US$/tCO2e) and 3 % annual growth rate of the SCC; sourced from the method document-Valuing corporate environmental impacts, pwc 2015.
9
Global Carbon Project: https://www.icos-cp.eu/gcp-covid19.
4
ENERGY
SECTOR
EMISSIONS
44 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 4: Energy Sector Emissions 45
4.1 Sources of GHG Emissions in
GHG emissions in the Energy sector derive from the combustion of fuel (main source)
or from fugitive emission sources. Fuel combustion emissions include emissions from
the Energy Sector
the combustion of fuel for the specific generation of energy, whilst fugitive emissions The Energy sector was the source of 91 461 Gg CO2-eq (75.9 % of the emirate’s total GHG It should be noted that the inherent CO2 fugitive emissions from oil and gas activities
include leaks, unintended and irregular gas releases during the extraction, processing emissions) in 2018. Fuel combustion accounted for 98 % of these emissions, while fugitive were not accounted for in the GHG inventory as per the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines.
and delivery of fossil fuels to the point of final use. emissions from oil and gas contributed only 2 %. Public electricity and desalinated water Additionally, in consultation with ADNOC, it is expected that the actual CH4 emissions
production was the single largest source in the Energy sector, followed by oil and gas, from the oil and gas activities might be less due to the fact that ADNOC deploys high
The Energy sector is split into the Energy Industries, Transport, Manufacturing and manufacturing and transport (Figure 4.1). CO2 was the primary direct GHG in the sector, efficiency (~99.9 %) combustion equipment such as boilers, heaters and gas turbines
Construction and Other Energy subsectors. The Energy Industries subsector comprises and CH4 was primarily generated from fugitive sources (Figure 4.2). which results in lower equipment specific CH4 emission factors.
of combined electricity and water, oil and gas industries.
98 %
Fuel combustion
13 %
Transport
1%
Other energy
emissions
16 %
Manufacturing
91 461
industries 45 %
Electricity
Gg CO2-eq and Water
Associated emissions to energy
activities in 2018
2%
Fugitive emissions
25 %
Oil and Gas
Figure 4.1: Contributions of energy subsectors towards total

Energy-related GHG emissions in 2018.
4.2 Trend of GHG Emissions in
100 000 the Energy Sector
90 000 The overall trend of total GHG emissions from the Energy sector was increasing during
the period 2010–2016 then decreasing in 2018 (Figure 4.3) ; between the years 2010 and
2018, the total GHG emissions from the Energy sector increased by 27.2 %.
80 000
70 000
120 000
60 000
Gg CO2 -eq
50 000 100 000
40 000 80 000
Gg CO2 -eq
30 000
60 000
27.2 %
20 000
40 000
10 000
20 000 Emission increase in
energy sector during
0
2010-2018
All Energy Electricity and Oil and Gas Manufacturing industries Transport Other energy 0
Water 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O
Figure 4.2: Breakdown of direct GHG emissions from Energy sector in 2018.
Figure ‎4.3: Trend of total GHG emissions by gas from the Energy sector during 2010-2018.
The energy subsectors’ trends of emissions varied during the previous years; the trends (Figure 4.4). Those emission trends reflect the change in activity data and reflect the To better understand the trends of emissions and their causes, the energy subsectors emissions in the oil and gas subsector in 2018 compared to 2016 was the decreased gas
of emissions were increasing along the period 2010–2018 in the combined electricity effect of mitigation measures in decoupling emissions from their economic activities in emissions were linked to their drivers (Figure 4.5). flaring and the improved efficiency in oil and gas activities (lower fuel combusted). In the
and water production and manufacturing subsectors, whilst the trends of emissions both transport and oil and gas subsectors. transport subsector, the drivers for the decreased emissions in 2018 compared to 2016
It is obvious that GHG emissions were consistently proportional to the production quantities
in both oil and gas and transport subsectors were varied during the previous years were the increased conversion to clean CNG fuel and the decreased fuel quantities used
in combined electricity and water generation, or to the non-oil GDP in manufacturing
in the road and other transport activities (lower domestic fuel sales reported by SCAD),
and construction along the whole period 2010–2018. The main driver for the decreased
although there was an increased total volume of vehicles in the emirate.
45 000
Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Electricity and Water
Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Manufacturing
40 000 80 000 50 000
100 50 000
70 000 90 45 000
Annual Growth 7.4 % 45 000
35 000 Annual Growth 6 %
Generated electricity
80 40 000
Generated electricity
GHG emissions
60 000
70 35 000
GHG emissions
Annual Growth 4 % 40 000
30 000 50 000
60 30 000
50 25 000
35 000
40 20 000
40 000
Gg CO2 -eq
25 000 30 15 000
30 000 Annual Growth 18.3 %
30 000 20 10 000
20 000 10 5 000
20 000 25 000 0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
15 000
Generated electricity (GWh) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq) Non-Oil GDP (Billion 2005 USD) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)
10 000
Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Oil and Gas Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Transport
5 000
14 000 50 000 1 200 000 50 000
45 000 45 000
0 12 000
Annual Growth 5.9 %
1 000 000
Annual Growth 4.5 %
40 000 40 000
Number of vehicles
Electricity and Water Oil and Gas Manufacturing industries Transport Other energy 10 000 35 000 35 000
GHG emissions
GHG emissions
Produced fuel
800 000
30 000 30 000
8 000
25 000 600 000 25 000
6 000 20 000 20 000
Annual Growth 6.1 %
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 400 000
4 000 15 000 15 000
10 000 10 000
200 000
2 000
5 000 Annual Growth -3.9 % 5 000
Figure 4.4: Trend of GHG emissions by Energy subsector in Abu Dhabi Emirate during 2010-2018. 0 0 0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Produced fuel (PJ) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq) Number of vehicles GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)
Figure 4.5: Trends of GHGs and their driving activities in Energy subsectors during 2010–2018
4.3 GHG Emission Projections
for the Energy Sector
Analysis of emission projections (Figure 4.6) indicates that if development plans The existing mitigation strategies and development plans considered in the Mitigation In comparison with the emirate’s total potential of emission reduction (130 332 Gg
continue according to the historical Business-As-Usual scenario as in the year 2016 Path scenario will control the Energy sector’s emissions at a level of 95 315 Gg CO2-eq CO2-eq), the contribution of Energy sector in emission reduction is expected to be
(BAU2016), future GHG emissions from the Energy sector are expected to increase by by 2030. This means a reduction of 55.2 % (117 358 Gg CO2-eq) from the BAU2016 significant (90 %).
a factor of 3.0 from 2010 to reach 212 673 Gg CO2-eq by the year 2030. emissions level in 2030.
By the year 2030, with support of DSM programme, nuclear and renewables are expected
The status of actual GHG emissions in 2018 is lower (24.2 %) than the projected 2018 The largest potential for emission reductions in the year 2030 is expected to come to contribute around 58 % of the generated electricity in Abu Dhabi Emirate and avoid
level by the BUA2016 scenario. This reflects the performance of mitigation measures from the combined electricity and water production and demand side management 26 802 Gg of CO2-eq of emissions.
implemented after the year 2016, particularly in the power production, oil and gas (26.7 %). These are then followed by oil and gas (14.7 %), transport (8.4 %), and
and transport. manufacturing (5.4 %).
280 000
260 000
95 315
240 000
Gg CO2-eq
Direct GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)

220 000
by 2030
200 000
Controlled level of emissions by the existing
180 000
energy strategies and mitigation plans
160 000
140 000
120 000
10 000
80 000
60 000
55.2 % 14.7 % 26.7 % 8.4 % 5.4 %

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
BAU2016 Mitigation Path

Emission reduction in Emission reduction Emission reduction from Emission reduction Emission reduction
energy sector relative to from oil and gas the combined electricity from transport from manufacturing
BAU2016 emissions level activities and water production activities industries Figure 4.6: Projected GHG emission scenarios for the Energy sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate.
in 2030
5
INDUSTRIAL
PROCESSES
SECTOR
EMISSIONS
54 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 5: Industrial Processes Sector Emissions 55
The Industrial Processes sector covers GHG emissions occurring
from industrial processes, the use of halocarbons and SF6 in
the Industrial Processes Sector
products, and non-energy uses of fossil fuel carbon. Only GHG
emissions from physical and chemical transformation processes The Industrial Processes sector was the source of 20 138 Gg CO2-eq (16.7 % of the and chemical production (mainly ammonia production) (Figure 5.1). CO2 was the main
are considered here. emirate’s total GHG emissions) in the year 2018. Metal production (mainly iron and direct GHG in the sector, whilst the other gases (CH4, PFCs, HFCs and SF6) were minor
steel, and aluminium) was the single largest source of emissions in the sector, followed (Figure 5.2).
GHG emissions from the Industrial Processes sector may result by mineral products (mainly limestone and dolomite use, and cement production),
from the production and consumption of mineral products
(cement, asphalt, lime, limestone and glass), the chemical industry
(production of ammonia and ethylene), metal production (iron
and steel and aluminium) and the production and consumption of
halocarbons and SF6 (used for refrigeration and in circuit breakers). 5.0 %
Consumption of
halocarbons and SF6 10.5 %
20 130
Chemical industry
Gg CO2-eq
Associated emissions to
industrial processes in 2018
17.1 %
Mineral products
67.4 %
Metal production
16.7 %
of the emirate’s total
GHG emissions
Figure 5.1: Contributions of industrial processes subsectors towards total GHG

emissions from the Industrial Processes sector in 2018.
the Industrial Processes Sector
12 000
Between the years 2010 and 2018, the total direct GHG emissions from the Industrial 25 000
Processes sector increased by 12.5 %. Among the different gases, the trend of the
10 000 dominant gas (CO2) was increasing, whilst trends of CH4 and PFCs were decreasing
(Figure 5.3). This reflected the change in activity data (increasing productions of the 20 000
Direct GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq)
industrial processes) or change in emission factors. Compared with 2016, the emissions
level in 2018 decreased by 8.2 %, mainly due to the decreased PFCs emissions from the
8 000
aluminium industry. Although aluminium production increased in 2018, PFCs emissions 15 000
Gg CO2-eq
decreased, thanks to the EGA’s state of the art technologies and the significant
enhancement in the PFCs intensity rates which are much lower than the rates in other
6 000 technologies10 (Figure 5.4). 10 000
4 000 5 000
12.5 %
0
2 000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Emission increase in the

0 industrial processes sector CO2 CH4 F-Gases
Cement Lime Limestone Soda Ash Ammonia Ethylene Iron and Steel Aluminium Refrigeration Electric during 2010-2018
Production Production and Dolomite Use Production Production Production Production and Air Substations
Use Conditioning Figure 5.3: Trend of total GHGs from Industrial Processes
sector by gas during 2010-2018.
CO2 CH4 HFCs & SF6 PFCs

8.2 %
Lower emission level in
Figure 5.2: Breakdown of direct GHG emissions from the Industrial Processes sector in 2018.
2018 compared with 2016
World Aluminium (https://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics/

10
perfluorocarbon-pfc-emissions/).
Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Chemical industry
To better understand the trends of emissions and their causes, the industrial processes 5 000 000 5 000
subsector emissions were linked to their drivers (Figure 5.5).
25 000 4 500 000 4 500
4 000 000 4 000

It is obvious that GHG emissions were proportional to the production quantities
3 500 000
in mineral, chemical and metal industries during the whole period 2010–2018 with 3 500
GHG emissions
Annual Growth 11.6 %
Production
the exception of aluminium industry in 2018 where emissions decreased due to the 3 000 000 3 000
significant reduction in PFCs emissions that are linked to technology improvement in 2 500 000 2 500
20 000 the aluminium industrial processes. 2 000 000 2 000

Annual Growth 27 %
1 500 000 1 500
1 000 000 1 000
500 000 500
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
15 000
Gg CO2-eq
Production (tonne) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)
10 000 Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Mineral Industry Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Metal industry
15 000 000 10 000 10 000 000 40 000
9 000 9 000 000

13 000 000 35 000
8 000 8 000 000
Annual Growth 19 %
11 000 000 Annual Growth 6.3 % 30 000
7 000 7 000 000
GHG emissions
GHG emissions
9 000 000 25 000
Production
Production
6 000
5 000 6 000 000
7 000 000 5 000 5 000 000 20 000
4 000 4 000 000

5 000 000 15 000
Annual Growth 33.6 % 3 000 3 000 000
3 000 000 Annual Growth -3.1 % 10 000
2 000 2 000 000
1 000 000 5 000
1 000 1 000 000
0
-1 000 000 0 0 0
All industrial Mineral Chemical Metal Consumption of 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
processes products industry production halocarbons and SF6
Production (tonne) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq) Production (tonne) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Figure 5.4: Trend of total GHG emissions by Industrial Processes subsector during 2010-2018. Figure 5.5: Trends of GHGs and their driving activities in Industrial Processes during 2010–2018.
5.3 GHG Emission Projections for the Industrial Processes Sector
Analysis of GHG emission projections (Figure 5.6) indicates that if development plans Iron and steel industrial processes will remain the main source of emissions in 2030,
continue according to the historical Business-As-Usual scenario as in the year 2016 constituting around 45.8 % of the total sector emissions, whilst aluminium industrial
(BAU2016), future GHG emissions from Industrial Processes are expected to increase process (10.7 %), cement industrial process (9.1 %), and the other industrial processes
by a factor of 1.76 from the 2010 levels to reach 31 537 Gg CO2-eq in the year 2030. (34.4 %).
The mitigation strategies and development plans considered in the Mitigation Path In comparison with the emirate’s total potential of emission reduction (130 332 Gg CO2-
scenario will control the Industrial Processes’ emissions at a level of 25 062 Gg CO2-eq by eq), the contribution of this sector in emission reduction is expected to be small (5 %).
2030. This means a reduction of 20.5 % (6 475 Gg CO2-eq) from the BAU2016 emissions
level in the year 2030.
25 062 Gg CO2-eq
36 000
31 000
by 2030
Controlled level of emissions by the

26 000 existing Industrial Processes strategies
and mitigation plans
21 000
16 000
11 000
6 000
20.5 %
1 000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Emission reduction in Industrial

BAU2016 Mitigation Path Processes sector relative to
BAU2016 emissions level in 2030
Figure 5.6: Projected GHG emission scenarios for the Industrial
Processes sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate.
6
AGRICULTURE
SECTOR
EMISSIONS
64 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 6: Agriculture Sector Emissions 65
6.1 Sources of GHG Emissions
GHG emissions in the Agriculture sector derive from enteric
fermentation, manure management and agricultural soils.
in the Agriculture Sector
Enteric fermentation is a digestive process by which
The Agriculture sector was the source of 2 477 Gg CO2-eq (2.1 % of the emirate’s total GHG 1 400
carbohydrates are broken down in ruminant animals.

emissions) in 2018, with agricultural soil being the single largest source of the emissions
Manure management refers to capture, storage, treatment, (Figure 6.1). The direct GHGs were mainly N2O, followed by CH4 (Figure 6.2). 1 200
and utilisation of animal manure. Agricultural soil GHG 1 000
emissions are due to the application of soil nitrogen and
the cultivation of organic soils. 800
600
400
200
38.5 % 0
Enteric fermentation Enteric Manure Agricultural
fermentation management soils
CH4 N2O
Figure 6.2: Breakdown of direct GHG emissions from
the Agriculture sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018.
52.5 %
Agricultural soils
9.0 %
Manure management
Figure 6.1: Contributions of Agriculture subsectors towards total GHG emissions

from Agriculture sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018.
2 477
Associated emissions to
Gg CO2-eq 2.1 %
agriculture activities in 2018 GHG emissions
Apart from 2010, where fertiliser and animal waste management data were a challenge quantities applied in the soil, and the number of livestock in the emirate. The main drivers
due to low certainty, the total annual emissions increased from 2012 to 2016 then slightly for the emissions were the agricultural cultivated areas (and the fertiliser quantities
decreased in 2018. This reflected the change in agricultural cultivated areas, fertiliser applied in the soil), and the number of livestock in the emirate (Figure 6.4).
the Agriculture Sector
3 000
Between the years 2010 and 2018, total direct GHG emissions from the Agriculture sector
increased by 2.6 % (Figure 6.3).
2 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
2 000
Gg CO2-eq
Gg CO2-eq
1 500
1 500
1 000
500
1 000
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
CH4 N2O
500
Figure 6.3: Trend of GHG emissions by gas from the Agriculture

sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate during 2010-2018.
0
All Agriculture Enteric fermentation Manure management Agricultural soils
2.6 %
Emission increase in the
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
agriculture sector during

Figure 6.4: Trend of total GHG emissions by Agriculture subsector in Abu Dhabi Emirate during 2010-2018
2010-2018
for the Agriculture Sector
To better understand the trends of emissions and their causes, the agriculture subsector Analysis of GHG emission projections (Figure 6.6) indicates that if development plans of 25.4 % (822 Gg CO2-eq) from the BAU2016 emissions level in the year 2030. The large
emissions were linked to their drivers (Figure 6.5). continue according to the Business-As-Usual scenario as in the year 2016 (BAU2016), reduction (73 %) will be in the enteric fermentation emissions. The main contribution
future GHG emissions from Agriculture activities are expected to increase by a factor of emissions in 2030 will be from the agricultural soil (54.0 %), followed by enteric
It is obvious that the slightly increased general trend of GHG emissions during the period
of 1.34 from the 2010 levels to reach 3 234 Gg CO2-eq in the year 2030. fermentation (39.6 %), and manure management (6.4 %).
2010–2018 was affected by the combination of the increased number of livestock,
increased use of synthetic fertilisers, and decreased cultivated area and its production Assuming that the livestock numbers reach the sustainable grazing carrying capacity of In comparison with the emirate’s total potential of emission reduction (130 332 Gg
of nitrogen-fixing crops and crop residue. the land by 2030 (Mitigation Path), future GHG emissions in the Agriculture sector are CO2-eq), the contribution of Agriculture sector in emission reduction is expected to
expected to stabilise at the same level of 2018 (2 413 Gg CO2-eq). This means a reduction be minor (1 %).
4 300
Trend of GHGs and Driving Activity in Agriculture Sector
5 000 010 40 000

3 900
2 413 Gg CO2-eq

Cultivated area
Annual Growth -1.3 %
4 500 010
35 000
3 500
by 2030
4 000 010
30 000 Future GHG emissions in the Agriculture
Number of livestock
3 500 010
Annual Growth 5.8 % 3 100 sector are expected to stabilise at the
25 000
3 000 010 same level of 2018
2 500 010 20 000 2 700
2 000 010 15 000
GHG emissions
1 500 010 2 300
10 000
1 000 010
Annual Growth 1 % 5 000 1 900
500 010
10 0
1 500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
25.4 %
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Number of livestock Agriculture GHG (Gg CO2 -eq) Cultivated area (ha)
BAU2016 Mitigation Path
Emission reduction in agriculture

sector relative to BAU2016
Figure 6.5: Trends of GHGs and their driving activities in Agriculture Figure 6.6: Projected total GHG emission scenarios for the Agriculture
emissions level in 2030
sector during 2010–2018. sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate.
7
LAND-USE CHANGE
AND FORESTRY
SECTOR EMISSIONS
AND REMOVALS
72 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 7: Land-use Change and Forestry Sector Emissions and Removals 73
7.1 Sinks of CO2 Removals in the Land-
The Land-use Change and Forestry (LUCF) sector covers GHG emissions and
removals from different land uses. Land types assessed include managed forests,
Use Change and Forestry Sector
perennial cropland, settlements trees, and wetlands.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is removed from the atmosphere through photosynthesis as The GHG emissions attributed to the desalinated water quantities and diesel fuel used in
Only CO2 removals from woody biomass growth were assessed due to the lack woody biomass grows. Inventory results showed that in the year 2018, the LUCF sector forest irrigation were estimated at 184 Gg CO2-eq. Those emissions offset about 7.4 % of
of data related to land conversion, abandonment of managed lands, and CO2 removed between 4 236 to 5 240 Gg of CO2 emissions11 (≤5.5 % of the emirate’s total CO2 the forests’ annual carbon sequestration, leading to a net sequestration of 2 310 Gg CO2
emissions/removals from soils. Additionally, no projections were made for this emissions), most of which was removed by the forest areas (Figure 7.1). by the forest land.
sector due to a lack of data.
19 %
Mangroves
5 240
Annual removals by the
Gg CO2
65 % LUCF sector in 2018

Forest &
Settlement trees
16 %
Palm & Fruit trees
Figure 7.1: Contributions of woody biomass categories towards total CO2

removals in Abu Dhabi carbon sinks in 2018.
5.5 %
Carbon offsetting capacity
relative to the emirate’s
total CO2 emissions
11
2006 IPCC Guidelines provided higher sequestration than IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines due to the improved
estimation method and the improved emission factors in the updated guidelines.
7.2 Potential Emissions from Wetlands 7.3 Trend of CO2 Removals
Use of the updated 2006 IPCC Guidelines allowed for the assessment of carbon removal biomass and soil of these lands, of which 66 % is stored in the seagrass areas and 34 % is
in the Land-Use Change and
in the mangrove and seagrass wetland areas. Those are natural resources in the emirate
that are not accounted for under the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Calculations showed
stored in the mangrove areas. If wetland areas are extracted12, a maximum of 61 324 Gg
CO2 may be released to the atmosphere. This equates to about half of the emirate’s total
Forestry Sector
that 911 Gg CO2 is removed from the atmosphere annually by the mangrove growth. CO2 emissions in 2018. If the mangrove land area is drained, about 450 Gg CO2 may be
emitted (Figure 7.2).
Calculations also showed that Abu Dhabi’s wetlands (mangroves and seagrass meadows) Analysis, based on the best available data, showed that the removals of CO2 from woody
hold a maximum of 16 709 Gg carbon which has accumulated over the years in the biomass growth (excluding mangroves) slightly decreased after the year 2012. This might
be due to the minor changes in the forest areas that have taken place in the past few
years (Figure 7.3).
40 608
Carbon stored in
Abu Dhabi wetlands
45 000 5 000 4 737
CO2 removal or potential emission (Gg)
16 709
4 609
4 800
35 000 Gg carbon
4 600 4 292
25 000
4 227 4 236
4 400
Gg CO2
20 716
15 000
-911 450
4 200
66 % 34 %
5 000
4 000
-5 000 Annual removals by Potential emission by Potential emission by
Mangrove growth Wetland extraction Wetland drainage Stored in the Stored in the
3 800
seagrass areas mangrove areas
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mangroves Seagrass
Potential emissions CO2
Figure 7.2: Annual CO2 removals and potential CO2 emissions from extraction and if the wetlands are
61 324
drainage of mangrove and seagrass areas in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018. extracted
Figure 7.3: Trend of CO2 annual removals in the LUCF sector (excluding mangroves)
Gg CO2 in Abu Dhabi Emirate during 2010-2018.
may be released to the atmosphere
Extraction refers to the excavation of wetlands for port, harbour and marina construction, construction for
12
aquaculture ponds and construction of salt production ponds, with soil dredging.
8
WASTE
SECTOR
EMISSIONS
78 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 8: Waste Sector Emissions 79
The Waste sector includes GHG emissions from municipal
solid waste disposal to landfill, emissions from domestic
the Waste Sector
or commercial wastewater treatment, and emissions from
waste incineration. The Waste sector was the source of 6 329.36 Gg CO2-eq (5.3 % of the emirate’s total GHG 7 000

emissions) in the year 2018. Solid waste disposal on land, wholly deriving from municipal
solid waste (MSW) disposal to landfill13, was the primary source of GHG emissions, whilst 6 000
emissions from wastewater treatment or waste incineration were small (Figure 8.1).
5 000
CH4 was the primary direct GHG in the sector (Figure 8.2).
4 000
3 000
2 000
5.94 % 0.06 %
Waste incineration 1 000
Wastewater handling
0
Solid waste Wastewater Waste
disposal handling incineration
CH4 N2O CO2
Figure 8.2: Breakdown of GHG emissions from the Waste sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018.
94.00 %
Solid waste disposal
Figure 8.1: Contributions of Waste subsectors towards total GHG

emissions from the Waste sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate in 2018.
6 329
Associated emissions
Gg CO2-eq 5.3 %
to waste sector in 2018 GHG emissions
MSW includes household waste, yard/garden waste, commercial/market waste and organic industrial solid waste.
13
MSW does not include inorganic industrial waste such as construction or demolition materials.
the Waste Sector 9 000
8 000
Between the years 2010 and 2018, total direct GHG emissions from the Waste sector
decreased by 7.7 % (Figure 8.3). Some variations in the trend of total GHG emissions
were observed (Figure 8.4). The decrease in emissions in the past few years was mainly 7 000 Between the years
due to the decrease in solid waste disposed to landfills that was related to the decreased 2010 and 2018
generation rate of waste and the increased conversion from landfills to recycling.
The change in composition of waste material (lower degradable organic compound- 6 000
DOC) and the improved wastewater treatment technology (lower biological oxygen
demand and methane conversion factors) also contributed to emission decrease to
a small extent. 5 000
Gg CO2-eq
9 000 4 000
7.7 %
Emission reduction in the
8 000 waste sector during 2010-2018
7 000 3 000
6 000
5 000 2 000
Gg CO2-eq
4 000
3 000 1 000
2 000
1 000 0
All Waste Solid waste disposal Wastewater handling Waste incineration
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
CH4 N2O CO2
Figure 8.4: Trend of GHG emissions by Waste subsector in Abu Dhabi Emirate during 2010–2018.
Figure 8.3: Trend of GHG emissions by gas from the Waste sector
in Abu Dhabi Emirate during 2010–2018.
To better understand the trends of emissions and their causes, the waste subsector
emissions were linked to their drivers (Figure 8.5). The main driver for the emissions
trend was the disposed quantities of solid waste to the landfills.
It is obvious that during the period 2010–2018, the trend of total GHG emissions from
the Waste sector was largely affected by the quantity of the disposed solid waste.
for the Waste Sector
Additionally, the improvement in the wastewater treatment technology has led to
decoupling of emissions from the volume of handled wastewater.
Analysis of GHG emission projections (Figure 8.6) indicates that if waste development by 2030. This means a reduction of 80 % (5 678 Gg CO2-eq) from the BAU2016
plans continue according to the historical Business-As-Usual scenario as in the year emissions level in the year 2030. Although 95 % of this reduction will occur in solid waste
Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Solid Waste Disposal
2016 (BAU2016), future GHG emissions from Waste sector would be slightly increased emissions, solid waste disposal will remain the dominant source of future emissions.
8 20 000
(3 %) from the 2010 baseline emissions level to reach 7 082.65 Gg CO2-eq in the
7 18 000
year 2030. In comparison with the emirate’s total potential of emission reduction
16 000 (130 332 Gg CO2-eq), the contribution of Waste sector in emission reduction is
6
The mitigation strategies and development plans considered in the Mitigation Path expected to be small (4 %).
Disposed solid waste

14 000
GHG emissions
5
12 000
scenario will control the Waste sector’s emissions at a level of 1 405.12 Gg CO2-eq
Annual Growth 1.3 %
4 10 000
8 000
1 405
3
2
6 000
Gg CO2-eq
1
2 000
15 000 by 2030
Direct GHG emissions

0 0 Controlled level of emissions
(Gg CO2 -eq)

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 10 000 by the existing waste sector
Disposed solid waste (million tonne) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq) strategies and mitigation plans
5 000
Trends of GHGs and Driving Activity in Wastewater Treatment

400 2 000 0
1 800 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
350
1 600
Collected wastewater
1 400
300 BAU2016 Mitigation Path
GHG emissions
80 % 95 %
250 1 000
800 Figure 8.6: Projected total GHG emission scenarios for

200
600 Waste sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate.
150
400 Emission reduction in waste Emission reduction in
Annual Growth -0.7 % 200 sector relative to BAU2016 solid waste emissions
100 0 emissions level in 2030
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Collected wastewater (million m3 ) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)
Figure 8.5: Trends of GHGs and their driving activities in Waste sector during 2010–2018.
9
LESSONS
LEARNED AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
86 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 9: Lessons Learned and Recommendations 87
Lessons Learned Recommendations
The comprehensive work performed in the fourth GHG inventory cycle For future inventory iterations, local emission factors should be developed where
demonstrates an improvement of understanding of the relationship possible and where stacks monitoring data is available, especially those that are
between GHG emissions and anthropogenic activities over time and affected by the climate conditions or driven by the local-specific technology or process.
represents a step forward in the inventory compilation process. The Additionally, data collection should be improved by establishing a comprehensive data
extended scope and analysis of the inventory, as well as the increased acquisition system for all atmospheric emissions including GHG data, air pollutants,
interaction with the local stakeholders, contributed to the enhanced quality mitigation measures, local capacities, and financial support. This data acquisition
and reliability of the outcomes. will serve all emission inventories and eventually support the national measurement,
reporting and verification (MRV) process to the UNFCCC, as part of the requirements for
Abu Dhabi GHG success stories and the leading proactive approach of National Communications and Biennial Update Reports (BURs).
implementing the requirements of emissions inventories in accordance
with the official standards (Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines), with voluntarily To better understand emissions from supply and demand chains, and to set
testing and applying the latest updates (2006 IPCC Guidelines with the disaggregated GHG emission targets at the emirate, corporate and activity levels,
2013 Wetlands Supplement), has contributed to building knowledge consistent GHG inventories should be compiled and incorporated at multiple levels:
and enhancing capacity and preparation for future requirements of community or city, corporate, and sector levels. Government motivation systems are
measurement, reporting and verification of atmospheric emissions. crucial for better involvement of the public and private sector in GHG accounting and
management (example: corporates carbon accreditation system for emission mapping,
The GHG inventory compilation process is naturally continuous and must reduction and offsetting), using the international standards (example: ISO 14064,
revolve through cycles to iteratively improve the quality of the inventory. GRI 305) for emissions quantification and reporting at organisational and project levels.
Emission inventories require complex data, making high-level stakeholder
commitment and stakeholder capacity building essential. Data collection For emission projections, the project provided a third iteration of emission forecasting
is one of the major tasks in the inventory compilation that requires that needs to be continuously updated in close collaboration with the relevant
substantial effort and time. Also, suitability of emission factors to the stakeholders and aligned with similar efforts coordinated by the local and federal
local circumstances is a key factor in reflecting the actual emissions and entities. More involvement is required from the stakeholders with reliable data about the
performance of local mitigation measures. sectors’ development plans and targets. However, there is a particular need for a robust
GHG integrated model that is capable of assessing emission scenarios and track the
performance of mitigation strategies against their technical viability and environmental
and economic sustainability.
All activities related to GHG data and mitigation measures should be coordinated at the
emirate level as well as at the national level. A GHG expert working group is recommended
to be established for Abu Dhabi Emirate, comprising of representatives from all relevant
stakeholders, to consolidate monitoring, reporting and verification of GHG data, and to
facilitate insights for management of GHG emissions at the emirate level.
88 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate Chapter 9: Lessons Learned and Recommendations 89
Acknowledgements
This project is part of EAD’s strategic priority to secure the resilience of Abu Dhabi
through mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and protection of air and marine
water. A multidisciplinary team was involved in developing the 4th cycle of Greenhouse
Gas Inventory and Projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate, which could not have been
produced without the commitment, data sharing and verification from the experts of
many different sectors.
EAD would like to thank all the individuals and organisations for their contributions to the
Abu Dhabi GHG Inventory and Projections Report.
Government and Semi-Government Entities Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi (EAD)

UAE Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (MOCCAE) Dr Shaikha Salem Al Dhaheri, Secretary General
Eng. Sheikha Ahmed Al Hosani, Executive Director, Environmental Quality Sector
UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure (MOEI)
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
EAD’s Project Management Team
Abu Dhabi Police
Ruqaya Mahmoud Mohamed
Department of Energy (DOE) Hussein Ibrahim Hamed
Khalifa University - (KU)
Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi (SCAD) EAD’s GHG Compilers
Abu Dhabi Waste Management Center (TADWEER) Hussein Ibrahim Hamed
Mouza Ismail Al Zaabi
Abu Dhabi Airports (ADAC)
Abu Dhabi Ports (ADPORTS)
Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority (ADAFSA)
EAD’s Project Support Team
Dr Richard Perry
Department of Municipalities and Transport (DMT) Rashed Al Kaabi
Abu Dhabi Sewerage Services Company (ADSSC) Oriol Teixido
Department of Economic Development (DED) Eva Ramos
Mohammad Alam
Abu Dhabi Quality and Conformity Council (QCC) Humaid Kanji
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) Mohammad Mosa
SENAAT Yasser Othman
Tawfiq Darawsha
Emirates Steel Mariam Al Memari
Arkan Building Material Mohammed Riyaz Azam
Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi Tel : +971 2 6934444 [email protected]
P.O. Box 45553, Abu Dhabi, UAE Fax : +971 2 4463339 www.ead.gov.ae

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GREENHOUSE

© Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi (EAD) 2021

Greenhouse gas inventory and projections for Abu Dhabi Emirate-

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in

Prepared and designed by:

His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan

Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UNFCCC

01 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

02 Scope and Method

2.2 GHG Projections 20

04 Energy Sector Emissions 45

4.3 GHG Emission Projections for the Energy Sector 52

State of Climate Change Response

140 000 140 000

120 000 120 000

GHGs 100 000 100 000

4% 4% 2.8 % Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste CO2 CH4 N 2O F-Gases

CO2 CH4 N2O PFCs2 HFCs SF6

Percentage of total emissions (%)

16.7 % 5.3 % 2.1 % 75.9 % 18.8 %

Abu Dhabi Emirate's Total GHGs

GHGs Electricity and Water

Key sources of Transport

industries transport processes 27

Forests and Settlement trees 2 493 – 3 115 800

Harvested Wood Products 461 400

Total 4 236 – 5 240 300

Road Transport 38.8

Other Energy Activities

Manufacturing & Construction 0.39 kg CO2/kWh

kg/ PPP $, 2011 prices

3.5 Projection of GHG Emissions

300 000 300 000

Potential of GHG Reductions by Mitigation Measures in 2030

Cumulative direct GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)

250 000 250 000

Oil and Gas

150 000 150 000 Transport

26 802 Gg of CO2-eq of emissions.

kg CO2 / USD 2005 prices

capita GDP kWh

2016-reference level Mitigation Path

Tonne CO2 per Capita

kg CO2 per kWh

2016-reference level Mitigation Path 2016-reference level Mitigation Path

Figure 4.1: Contributions of energy subsectors towards total

50 000 100 000

CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O

Direct GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)

55.2 % 14.7 % 26.7 % 8.4 % 5.4 %

BAU2016 Mitigation Path

Figure 5.1: Contributions of industrial processes subsectors towards total GHG

Emission increase in the

CO2 CH4 HFCs & SF6 PFCs

World Aluminium (https://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics/

4 000 000 4 000

20 000 the aluminium industrial processes. 2 000 000 2 000

1 000 000 1 000

500 000 500

Production (tonne) GHG emissions (Gg CO2 -eq)