Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Habitat International
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/habitatint

Flood induced vulnerability in strategic plan making process of Riyadh

city
Kh Md Nahiduzzaman*, Adel S. Aldosary, Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman
Department of City and Regional Planning (CRP), King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals (KFUPM), Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, is undergoing a critical transition when the conventionally thought
Received 1 March 2015 desert climate has been witnessing ‘turning-to-be-regular’ flash floods. Since 2009, the city has been
Received in revised form repeatedly hit by flash floods that has put further adverse consequences on the properties and even
17 May 2015
resulting in death tolls. Such critical transition has made the think-tanks seriously re-think about the
Accepted 29 May 2015
resilient capacity of the existing infrastructure. Although the city has been attempted to plan, develop
Available online 20 June 2015
and expand under a number of master planning regimes, the ‘emerging-recurrent’ flash flood was not
critically considered in the plan making process. However, the recent MEDSTAR comprehensive strategic
Keywords:
Flash flood
development initiative has brought a new hope with re-conceptualizing the planning strategies in the
Social and physical vulnerability plan making and revision processes. Thus, this study attempts to evaluate the credibility of master plans
Flood vulnerability index with an especial focus on MEDSTAR to find out the resilience power against flash flood driven adverse
Strategic plan consequences. The evaluation is carried out with the lens of social and physical vulnerabilities of flash
floods and associated risks of the proposed strategies for growth and land use of Riyadh until 2030. The
evaluation suggests that many areas of Riyadh city, formally proposed with specific land uses, densifi-
cation and expansion plan, are prone to both social and physical vulnerabilities of flood in the scale of
‘high’ to ‘moderate’ vulnerability induced risks. With the aid of composite flood vulnerability (social and
physical) index, therefore, this study suggests MEDSTAR comprehensive development strategy to un-
dergo another re-evaluation process that perhaps will strongly influence the current investment decision
on infrastructure to make Riyadh resilient against the ‘emerging-recurrent’ flash floods.
© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction (ominous) events are making city planners seriously re-think

about the city infrastructure and its adaptive capacity to the new
With the increased pervasive consequence of climate change, transition. A series of consecutive floods, notably in 2009, 2010,
the entire earth is witnessing recurrent and abnormal events, often 2011, 2012 and 2014 has already put a tremendous challenge on
turned into disasters, with a heightened frequency than ever the existing infrastructure, urban planning process and questioned
before (IPCC, 2008; Schmidt & Wolfe, 2009). Such adversities also its adaptive capacity against such ‘turning-to-be-regular’ natural
hit middle-eastern countries including Saudi Arabia. Although odds. However, keeping changing climate and its adversities in the
flood is understood as historically rare event in Arabian landscape, forms of ‘newly-recurrent’ flash flood into consideration, the Saudi
recent recurrent flash flood incidents put the contemporary Arabian capital, Riyadh, aims to get prepared to achieve resiliency
landscape to a critical transition. As a result, the flash floods in in the end (Craven, 2009; IPCC, 2008; Medstar Review, 2009).
large metropolises e.g., Jeddah, Riyadh, and Dammam has been Therefore, the capital city underwent a number of master plans
occurring on a year interval, labeling it as a regular event, and driven changes since 1971. While the revision is still ongoing, the
cause extensive property damages and death tolls (Middleton, latest structure plan, called Metropolitan Development Strategy
2009). Essentially, such emerging and ‘turning-to-be-regular’ for Arriyadh (MEDSTAR), has been drafted (2009 and 2012) in the
aim to provide strategic planning and development guidelines
until 2021, first, and then to 2030. Yet, one of the primary questions
* Corresponding author. still co-exists about introducing adaptive approach in the strategic
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (K.M. Nahiduzzaman), asdosary@kfupm. plan, which is capable of incorporating ‘newly-recurrent’ and
edu.sa (A.S. Aldosary), [email protected] (M.T. Rahman).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.05.034
0197-3975/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
376 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385

unforeseen event(s)-induced physical and social vulnerabilities - insuring participation of the city governments in national
and associated risks on the planning endeavors as it moves over disaster risk reduction planning and framework.
time horizon. The socio-economic and climatic context against
which MEDSTAR comprehensive plan making process was initi- Often, the challenges of planning policies and regulatory
ated, the city already started to experience adverse consequences legislations are rooted to the unpredictable nature of flood and,
of flash floods (Middleton, 2009). On that ground, the following thus, lies on city's adaptive capacity to cope with it. Therefore,
question remains unanswered while flash flood has been an UNISDR (2013) identifies ’10 essentials' for making cities
emerging-recurrent phenomenon for Riyadh and other metro- resilient among which building essential infrastructure and its
polises: what is the adaptive capacity of the strategic plan to upgradation are considered to be the vital steps for built-
advocate city growth as well as land use policies and prepare for environment resilience. Moreover, financing and allocating re-
the unforeseen events? This, in turn, further encourages studying sources for necessary infrastructure, and enforcing building and
the strategic plan to see its potential adaptability to deal with the land use regulations are equally appraised as the supporting
effects of unforeseen events and the options in which land use and pillars towards achieving resiliency against (e.g.,) flood (Kelly,
growth policy might be altered with certain ‘adaptive-flexibility’. 2010; UNISDR, 2013). Nevertheless, the investment decision
Therefore, with the aid of empirical evidence, this paper aims to on building infrastructure depends on the ability to ‘knowing
scientifically review the comprehensive strategic plans of Riyadh possible risks’ e understanding the nature of exposed risk and
city from flash flood induced social and physical vulnerability state of vulnerability. This is why, researchers (e.g., Cutter et al.
standpoints. 2008; Johnson & Blackburn, 2014; Silva, Moench, Kernaghan,
Luque, & Tyler, 2010; Winsemius et al., 2013; Ward et al.,
2. Flood induced vulnerability and urban planning policy 2013, etc.) fundamentally stress on the risk assessment exer-
cise e ‘multi-hazard risk assessment’ to maintain updated data
Vulnerability due to flood fundamentally depends on two on hazards and vulnerabilities, assess risks and use these as the
domains: intensity of flood and conditions of the built environ- foundation for urban development (re-)plans and resilient (re-)
ment (i.e., types and density of infrastructure) and socio- framework. Many city governments, notably Mumbai, Cape
demographic and politico-economic characteristics of the in- Town, Vancouver, Johannesburg and San Francisco (Philippines)
habitants (Mitchell, 1989; Cutter, 1996; Cutter, Carolina, Boruff, & carry out regular disaster risk assessments by drawing com-
Shirley, 2003; Cutter & Finch, 2008; Balica, Popescu, Beevwre, & munities' indigenous knowledge and experiences into account.
Wright, 2013). Although researchers (e.g., Asare-Kyei, Kloos, & Evidently, such risk assessment strongly influences the prepa-
Renaud, 2015; Krellenberg et al. 2014; Koks, Jongman, Husby, & ration of a city development plan (Johnson & Blackburn, 2014;
Botzen, 2015; Rojas, Feyen, & Watkiss, 2013; Romero-Lankao UNISDR, 2012).
et al., 2014; etc.) attempt to understand, identify and operation- Flood induced risk assessment entails physical, socio-
alize, flood-induced ‘vulnerability’ is commonly grounded on and demographic, cultural and economic dimensions and the state
defined by nature and intensity of flood, its associated risks and of vulnerability relies on resistance, coping, recovery and
exposure. This study, therefore, adopts fundamental nexus of adaptive capacity of a city (Cutter et al. 2008; Silva et al. 2010).
vulnerability, which is the function of flood-induced risks and Hyndman and Hyndman (2010) attempt to integrate the
exposure that largely relies on population characteristics of the physical and social sciences dimensions to identify and describe
district residents in Riyadh and availability of the essential general principles that can enhance the understanding of
infrastructure. physical, social, and economic forces inherent in natural di-
Environmental hazards have always been a threat for the city sasters, including flash flood. Physical vulnerability of flash
infrastructure. Hence, it poses a consistent challenge and, at the floods is an obvious and widely witnessed phenomenon.
same time, derives experiential knowledge that feeds into Therefore, it is essential that the physical characteristics of
formulating sustainable planning framework, which, in turn, flood and prevailing perceptions around (e.g., magnitude,
brings resiliency against e.g., floods that could be recurrent, duration, and frequency, the individual and community per-
discreet or unpredictable in nature (Smith & Petley, 2009). The ceptions) need to be thoroughly explored, appraised and
increasing frequency of flood throughout the world is perceived to recorded. On the same thread, social vulnerability is somewhat
be one of the pervasive consequences of climate change undermined during the assessment of overall flood-induced
(Satterthwaite, 2013). Thus, growing concern of the city govern- vulnerability at the household level (Linnekamp, Koedam, &
ments on development plans to deal with the mounting conse- Baud, 2011). Contrarily, reducing overall flood risk signifi-
quences of recurrent disasters (e.g., floods) become a regular day- cantly depends on the adaptive capacity of the individual
to-day task (Downtown & Pielke, 2001). Many city governments households, which is associated with the demographic struc-
including in the third world nations (e.g., India, Sri Lanka, China, ture of the household, education, age, gender, ethnicity, and
Thailand, Philippines, Peru, Argentina, etc.) have become more income level, among others (Cutter et al., 2003; Kienberger,
proactive in taking effective actions to improve governance in Contreras, & Zeil, 2014; Koks et al., 2015). Thus, composite
order to reduce disaster risk and vulnerability (Johnson & vulnerability score incorporating physical and social vulnera-
Blackburn, 2014). These local governments have been persis- bilities has been effective in actual assessment of potential
tently investing on (Johnson & Blackburn, 2014), risks posed by floods and resulting damages. Use of composite
score values as input-decisive variables in the master plan
- expanding capacities emphasizing on local indigenous knowl- making process has been quite an established practice in North
edge, and experience; America, European Union and far eastern countries including
- building partnerships between the local communities, private China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia (Kim & Rowe, 2013;
actors, Non-government organizations (NGOs), academic in- Viegas, Saldanha, Bond, Ribeiro, & Selig, 2013). Specifically,
stitutions and other stakeholders; investment decision on city's infrastructure to make it resilient
- prioritizing needs of the most vulnerable groups including against the natural disasters including flood is largely influ-
women, elderly, children, etc. by insuring their participation in enced by the estimated vulnerability score of the city neigh-
the local plan making process; and borhoods (Melgarejo & Lakes, 2014; Saraswati, 2014).
 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385 377

3. Study area e Riyadh, the Saudi capital well as rainfall data (Gornitz & Kanciruk, 1989; Gornitz, White, &
Cushman, 1992; Mclaughlin & Cooper, 2010). This study takes
Riyadh is strategically located at a major crossroads of the into account a set of context-specific indicators relative to Riyadh
continents of the Kingdom and the eastern part of the Arabian that also comply the required input variables to run simulation
Peninsula. Until 2012, the total (developed) area in Riyadh city was through the Watershed Modeling Systems (WMS): surface eleva-
1297 sq. km (ADA, 2013). The area allocated for urban development tion, rainfall intensity and duration. At the outset, the geographical
is expected to reach 3115 sq. km in 2029 (Medstar Review, 2009). areas of interest in Riyadh city are identified that have been
The core city consists of 153 neighborhood districts, which are the repeatedly hit by flash floods in the recent past. In other words,
habitats of majority (98%) residents and includes 13 municipalities these are the areas that are potentially prone to flood vulnerability.
in addition to Addiriyah governorate that accommodates 209 Thus, PVI is created studying those areas using the WMS. In the
quarters (Qahtani & Al Fassam, 2011) (Fig. 1 around here). Notably, simulation, gridded surface subsurface hydrologic analysis model
the expansion beyond its original walls has resulted in Riyadh city of WMS is used to calculate rainfall event (before, during and after)
becoming one of the three largest metropolitan areas in the for each grid cell and then the response from individual grid cells
Kingdom, together with Makkah and Jeddah in the West and are integrated to produce a comprehensive watershed response
Dhahran, Dammam and Khobar in the Eastern Province. In the map. A 30 m ASTER digital elevation model (DEM) is fed as the
current land use setting, the housing neighborhood represents the input data into WMS where aforementioned indicators are
major share i.e., about 17.8% of the city area, and the allotment for analyzed to determine the depth of flooding throughout Riyadh
other uses is as follows: industrial e 1.88%; transport services e city. The model was executed under a ‘worst flood scenario’
3.12%; commercial e 1.97%; health government and educational e (60 mm/h and 6 h of continuous rainfall) to simulate maximum
10.66% (Qahtani & Al Fassam, 2011). depth and volume of water that may accumulate over the study
Riyadh as a rapidly expanding multi-cultural city hosts a blend area. Afterwards, the flood depth map was converted into a 30 m
of 65% Saudi and 35% non-Saudi populations. The conventional city raster grid layer and the water depth was reclassified to a scale
climate is featured by hot dry summer while the winter enjoys cool score of 1e5 to measure flood induced physical vulnerability of the
moist weather with mean annual rainfall ranging between 85 and city. Areas with a score of 1 corresponds to have ‘very low’
116 mm (Al Saleh, 1997; Alyamani and Sen, 1992; Subyani, 2004). vulnerability while score of 5 were identified as ‘highly vulnerable’
However, in the recent past, the rainfall pattern has changed to flash floods.
resulting hours to days of downpour causing high volume of surface Besides politico-economic factors (e.g., land ownership and
run-off (ADA, 2013). property values, etc.), a number of demographic attributes,
including population density, population growth, age, gender,
4. Study method family size, race, ethnicity, etc., and social indictors, such as
housing conditions, per capita GDP, urbanization, household in-
As far as physical indicators are concerned, the most common come, etc. are commonly taken into account to create social
choice set includes the following to create a physical vulnerability vulnerability indices (Balica, Wright, & Meulen, 2012; Cutter &
index (PVI): geomorphology, flood heights, tidal wave distances, as Finch, 2008; Rygel, O'Sullivan, & Yarnal, 2006). Nevertheless, the

Fig. 1. Location of Riyadh in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

378 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385

choice of variables is adaptive to the context, which differs based attempted to fit into the proposed urban settings in an unsuitable
upon the socio-economic and political characteristics of the urban manner. In the process of economic boom, the planning focus was
geographies in focus (Cutter et al., 2003; Zhang & You, 2014). predominantly diverted to building financial infrastructure and
Riyadh is characterized by higher mix of foreign populations and supporting amenities with a diminished priority to execute what
differentiated socio-economic status (Aldosary & Nahiduzzaman, has been proposed on the development and preservation of green
2010; Middleton, 2009), which makes the choice of variables infrastructure in the master plan. As a result, the development
relatively critical. Therefore, after a due consideration of the so- proposed for Wadi Hanifa, as a main green belt and drainage outlet,
cial, economic and demographic (understood as ‘socio-economic’) in order to integrate in the park system at the city level and pro-
composition, total 7 variables are chosen to create social vulner- mote natural drainage system, was not fully implemented (ADA,
ability index (SVI) where presence of Arabs (non-Saudi) and 2003) (Fig. 2 around here).
Asians are duly accounted because of their varying exposure to However, under the ‘urban limits policy’ while the attempt was
flash flood-induced risks. An SVI of the city's residents (both made to concentrate the development within a certain urban
Saudis and non-Saudis) to flash flooding is computed accounting cordon and restrict sprawl development, city expanded more than
the following variables: (1) average family income; (2) percent of 632 sq. km and the vacant land decreased from 50% to less than 30%
population below 7 years and over 65 years; (3) population putting a further pressure on the natural drainage outlets
density; (4) land use; (5) percentage of Arabs (non-Saudi); (6) (Middleton, 2009).
percentage of Asians; and (7) percentage of people unemployed in
each neighborhood. The rank scores for all seven indicators were 5.3. Comprehensive strategic plan (MEDSTAR): 1996e2021
summed and averaged to compute the social vulnerability index
(SVI) for each neighborhood. By multiplying physical and social Comprehensive strategic plan (Metropolitan development
vulnerability scores, composite flood overall vulnerability index strategy for Arriyadh e MEDSTAR) is considered to be one of the
(FVI) for each neighborhood of Riyadh city is computed using the important milestones of planning endeavors in Riyadh to
following equation: FVI ¼ SVS*PVS. Finally, based on FVI, this accommodate future requirements, adapt to upcoming changes
study attempts to review the prescribed growth policy, land use and avoid the negative dimensions of city growth, particularly
settings as well as the investment decision about building infra- those resulting from fast growth leading to urban sprawl and
structure in all master plans with an emphasis on the latest resultant consequences. Under the comprehensive strategic plan,
comprehensive strategic plan of Riyadh i.e., MEDSTAR. structural plan defines and specifies the environment protection
zones, open areas, directions and boundaries of urban develop-
5. Urban planning practices and natural disaster induced ment along with land use regulation, and city transportation
vulnerability system, among others. The structural plan covers all parts of
Riyadh city within the protected boundaries of development
The need for (strategic or comprehensive) urban planning in having an area of 4900 km2 and projected population of 7.2
Riyadh does not necessarily stem to build adaptive capacity to cope million by 2024 (Ministry of Economy and Planning, 2010). On
with the unforeseen or ‘newly-recurrent’ natural disasters such as that note, following key features of the strategic plan requires a
flood and its associated risks. Traditionally, the urban development reiteration in order to understand the urban growth policy taking
practice has been a direct result of the urban decisions made at that ‘emerging-recurrent’ flash flood into consideration, which, how-
time on case by case (e.g. Almalaz, old airport etc.) (ADA, 2003). For ever, has been existed in the desert climate of Riyadh in varying
example, Arriyadh development authority (ADA) realized the need magnitude:
for establishing control over the urban development process by The revised zoning regulations and land use plan, understood to
only relying on popular regulatory tools such as land subdivision be effective executive tools for development plans, defines the
plans (Middleton, 2009). current and future land use regulations until 2021. While the
zoning regulation aims to set control on population and building
5.1. Frist master plan (1971) density, height (FAR), use and other terms to ensure privacy and
protection of property and environment, it attempts to regulate the
Perhaps merely from the preservation point of view, Doxiadis construction of city infrastructure, which intends to serve the
assumed a linear development along the spine extending in a desired number of population in a sustainable manner.
north-south direction of Riyadh, parallel to the Wadi Hanifa while Transportation plan has always been a top agenda to accom-
the growth was proposed to be limited against the traditional modate current and future demand, taking into consideration the
development corridor of towards east-west direction (ADA, 2003). need for an increased population, urban growth policy and land use
Due to high economic boom, Riyadh experienced a heightened settings. Thus, the urban growth is highly encouraged and stimu-
magnitude of urbanization causing the city to grow outside the lated by the financial investment decisions to diversify the eco-
pervasive boundary that superseded this master plan. Due to nomic base. On this continuum, the strategic plan still encourages
loosened-control over the actual development, the strong pressure horizontal expansion of the city boundary simulating to ‘urban
of the east-west direction development along the traditional cor- sprawl’.
ridors had countered the concept of north-south direction devel- In the strategic plan, environment management and protection
opment. As a result, many of the natural drainage outlets towards plan gets a serious attention to achieve a sustainable environment
the Wadi either started to disappear or experience blockages while while attempting to preserve natural resources and improve
the urbanization process continued (Middleton, 2009). overall city environment. This is strongly connected to the provi-
sion of public utility plan that includes electricity, water, tele-
5.2. Second master plan (1976e81) communication, sewerage, sanitary waste and rainwater drainage.
The current rainwater drainage does not adequately drain rain-
While the first master plan underwent revision, a new master water owing to the fact that the network covers only about 26% of
plan was proposed with an expansion of 850 sq. km. until 1990 to the total developed areas, mainly the central drainage area of the
accommodate increased population of 1.6 million. However, the Wadi Hanifa, Bat'ha and Al Aisin area (ADA, 2003; ADA, 2013).
growth strategy was hindered by the advent of new projects that Thus, rainfall with relatively intensified rates in a short time span
 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385 379

Fig. 2. Growth of Riyadh city from 1910 till 1996 (ADA, 2003).

leads to acute flooding problem in the main streets and low land planning problem due to the increasing incidence of rainfall and
areas. This is partly caused by poor design of the drainage system flash flooding and a growing problem of continuous high ground
and that many of the ducts crossing the roads were closed by the water throughout city districts (Qahtani & Al Fassam, 2011).
developers in the areas to which water was planned to drain out Moreover, since 1996 the net national in-migration to Riyadh from
(Middleton, 2009). Moreover, lack of thoughtful consideration for other regions in the Kingdom decreased to more than half e less
an appropriate use of the natural Wadi courses and flood drains at than 37,000 persons per annum. As a result, the anticipated growth
the time of planning further contributes to exacerbating flood rate for Riyadh had reduced from 8 percent to 4.2 percent per
situation in those areas. annum (Medstar Review, 2009). In spite of that, Riyadh's revised
structure plan 2030 reveals the growth strategies for urban land
6. MEDSTAR 1996e2021 & revised 2030: new urban strategy use and infrastructure and presents policies strongly encouraging
physical expansion and development of the city and entire region
The current MEDSTAR comprehensive plan reflects a major shift (Fig. 3 around here).
on how the spatial form of Riyadh is conceptualized, developed To regulate and diversify the financial investment, the major
and governed. The new planning approach is a comprehensive commercial center at the heart of the city is proposed to be sup-
value driven action strategy that integrates urban governance, plemented by a number of metropolitan sub-centers, which, in
economic development, urban identity, regional development, turn, would cluster commercial and public activities in proximity
urban growth and infrastructure. The first MEDSTAR 2021 draft to sub-regional populations. As shown in Fig. 3, high-density
regional strategic plan was finalized in 1997 with 2009 MEDSTAR spines will be supported by the sub-centers, and terminate at
revision, which extended with further development option to 2030 two new cities shown in yellow color to accommodate
(Middleton, 2009). The objective is to formulate phase wise 50,000e100,000 persons with gross residential densities in the
implementation plan with an adaptive inclusive approach so that range of 10e20 dwellings per hectare in district groupings. This
the plan would be updated at regular intervals: 50-year vision; 25- means, sub-urbanization will be encouraged with relatively high
year strategic framework; and 10-year comprehensive imple- population density in the south-west, south-east and north-east
mentation plan. regions of the city while high density development will be pro-
Under MEDSTAR comprehensive plan, the planning program moted with mixed of commercial and residential development at
took into account the traditional planning concerns emphasizing the city core (see Fig. 3) (Medstar Review, 2009). Thus, the devel-
ecological and environmental projects, which increasingly were opment of urban nodes (shown in red (in web version)) are plan-
addressing ‘emerging problems’ of flash flood and the Wadi Hanifa ned to be high density and mixed-use which, will reflect
watershed (Middleton, 2009). Topography along with water origi- hierarchical concept of centers to serve community needs
nally viewed as the limiting resource that would limit the city (Middleton, 2009). Notably, the ecological remediation of the Wadi
growth and development potential turned out to be an unexpected Hanifa highlighted as key urban projects, exhibits the notion of
380 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385

Fig. 3. The Riyadh Metropolitan Structure Plan 2030 (Medstar Review, 2009).

preserving natural heritage. However, it awaits further clarification density development (see Fig. 4). In that case, the question re-
that how this is going to contribute to the emerging flash flood mains to be answered onto the nature and type of infrastructure
induced drainage problem and associated risks. to be instilled, which would enable the flash-flood water to be
Urban limits have been revised in the MEDSTAR 2030 plan with drained out at a faster rate. Otherwise, the proposed moderate to
the majority of lands to be released for development are concen- high density core and suburbs will be subject to high vulnera-
trated along the northern axial spine and to the south west of the bility against flooding and further adverse consequences.
city center. Doxiadis prescribed growth along the north-south In terms of physical vulnerability, this study suggests that areas
corridor to maintain natural water flow in the Wadis and at the in the north-west, part of north and southeast regions are high to
same time safeguard the future development initiatives from being moderately vulnerable to flash floods (Fig. 6 around here). This also
vulnerable to potential water logging and flooding. However, the inscribes a further challenge on ArRiyadh Development Authority
density proposed for the south-west region of Riyadh is relatively (ADA) to promote high density mixed use development along with
high (Fig. 4 around here). Therefore, new development and urban options for transport corridors while building necessary infra-
expansion to the west side of the Wadi Hanifa will potentially pose structure that must be resilient against the recurrent flash flood
a major challenge for the installation of infrastructure services, driven consequences.
requiring substantial infill due to the Wadi geography and topo- Although the urban planning regimes of Riyadh city has been
graphical features. undergone several revisions and changes, no attempts has been
made yet to assess current flood-induced risks and associated
7. Comprehensive strategic plan and flood-induced socio- vulnerability while prescribing future guidelines and regulations
physical vulnerability for the metropolitan city. While MEDSTAR proposes for expansion
in almost all directions, except to the west, of Riyadh, a diversified
The comprehensive structure plan (MEDSTAR) suggests the land use settings are prescribed that is expected to bring financial
north and south-west axial spine of Riyadh to be considered for investment and promotes desired threshold population density
future urban expansion in 3 different phases. The flood water (see Fig. 3). However, the study results find that with the current
depth values suggest that the core and suburb areas have low to infrastructural conditions, majority of the built-up areas are prone
moderate flood depth, which at its current state does not pose to risks and highly vulnerable of recurrent flash floods (Fig. 7
any risk of flooding to the settlements (Fig. 5 around here). around here).
However, as per the MEDSTAR development guidelines, both the Riyadh being the diverse cultural and socio-economic-centric
core and suburbs would be promoted with moderate to high- city is very likely to witness differential effects of flood at the
 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385 381

household level in each districts. Having a high mix of foreign

population with diversified ethnic backgrounds even makes the
magnitude of vulnerability to a critical state. On the contrary,
MEDSTAR strategic plan doesn't seem to pay attention on flash
flood driven social vulnerability emanating from the following
key socio-economic attributes: population density, income level,
ethnicity, age (proportion of children and elder), and employment
status. This study attempts to evaluate social vulnerability of
Riyadh city based on scores generated from the combined effects
of these variables. The result suggests that central part (core
downtown and adjacent areas), part of south-east, south-west,
and north-east regions of Riyadh are prone to socially most
vulnerable to flooding while the adjoining areas would have
moderate to low vulnerabilities (Fig. 8 around here).
This study further portrays that in the composite flood vulner-
ability index (FVI), combining social and physical vulnerability
scores, the following areas of Riyadh city are potentially found to be
‘very high’ vulnerable to flash flood and associated risks while the
adjoining areas are high to moderately vulnerable: south-west,
south-east, central core and part of north-east (Fig. 9 around
here). Moreover, MEDSTAR strategic plan aims to encourage the
growth of residential and commercial development to the areas
that are found to be high to moderately vulnerable to future flash
floods, as the results suggest. Furthermore, there is a concern about
high-density mixed-use development in the city core where
chances of experiencing potential adverse effects by flood are be
very high. Again, advanced preparation (mitigation plan) in the
form of (re-)construction of essential infrastructure would help
reduce the overall ‘vulnerability’ situation in the future city of
Fig. 4. Current and future (proposed) population distribution (in thousand) for the year Riyadh, from ‘very high’ to a ‘low’. Nevertheless, at its current state
2021 (MEDSTAR Review, 2009). and proposed urban planning and growth policies, it is much is
needed to take into consideration the flood induced potential vul-
nerabilities against which a resilient plan can be made to tackle the
possible adversities.

Fig. 5. Distribution of simulated flood water depth across Riyadh city.

382 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385

Fig. 6. Physical vulnerability scores across Riyadh city (1 indicates low and 5 indicates high vulnerability).

Fig. 7. Vulnerability rank scores assigned based on percentage of the built-up areas.
 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385 383

Fig. 8. Distribution of social vulnerability scores across the study area.

Fig. 9. Distribution of composite flood vulnerability index (FVI) values across Riyadh city.
384 K.M. Nahiduzzaman et al. / Habitat International 49 (2015) 375e385

8. Concluding thoughts considering further revision of the strategic plan.

The appropriate approach and means to engage communities
MEDSTAR attempts to offer a new spatial direction for Riyadh, and incorporate their indigenous knowledge and experiential
which infuses the strategy-making effort with predominantly thoughts into building vulnerability index is important and critical
project oriented development and conceptualize modes of urban for the future of Riyadh. However, this study did not account these
spatial change, governance of development in unconventional inputs in preparing vulnerability scores due to limitation of re-
ways. It reveals a model of urban governance where land use sources to access to the communities.
planning and implementation attempted to (re-)define socio- The flood simulation in WMS is run on 30 m (DEM) resolution
spatial processes to re-activate the sense of place, and consid- imagery, which is freely available for the researchers. A finer res-
ering environmental change(s) (Middleton, 2009). However, on the olution (e.g., 5 m, 10 m, etc.) might have produced better index
plan making and revision process, recurrent floods and its fore- scores for Riyadh, which the researcher(s) might want to further
seeable consequences were not taken into account to scientifically investigate in the future. Furthermore, while running simulation
justify the expansion strategy and land use propositions. Thus, the ‘worst flood scenario’, the rainfall is evenly considered throughout
study findings, in many ways, put a ‘concern’ mark both on what Riyadh to identify the flood depth for each district. In reality, some
has been proposed in MEDSTAR and its ongoing revision effort. of the districts might not experience the same of amount and in-
Therefore, a sense of urgency has emerged to re-evaluate the entire tensity of rainfall, which adds another dimension of future research
plan making strategies and urban planning growth policies by to assess flood depth by accounting district specific rainfall infor-
employing the vulnerability measures e in the form of index based mation of Riyadh.
scores as presented in this study.
Flash flood has turned out to be a ‘recurrent-regular’ phenom- Acknowledgment
enon in the Saudi physical and social landscape. The criticality lies
on the fact that ADA needs to be flexibly adaptive to (re-)build The authors acknowledge and appreciate the support provided
infrastructure and allocate resources accordingly based on area- by King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) through
specific state of vulnerability and from that ground, whether the the Science & Technology Unit at King Fahd University of Petroleum
future propositions for growth and land use settings will bring any & Minerals (KFUPM) for funding this work through project number
sustainable solutions to make Riyadh resilient against regular flash 11-ENV1646-04 as part of the “National Science, Technology and
flood driven adversities. Thus, urban planning think-tank(s) for Innovation Plan (NSTIP)”.
Riyadh city will have to be adaptive enough to tackle its vulnera-
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