(Expressed in millions of Rupiah) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

By Product Category
Architecture solution 4,164,191 4,496,901 4,506,022 5,305,745
Trading goods 957,981 1,172,830 1,225,239 1,473,898
Net sales 5,122,172 5,669,731 5,731,261 6,779,643

By Distribution Channel
Owned distributor 4,442,180 4,948,774 5,040,553 5,916,968
Third party distributor 565,515 652,716 636,378 843,441
Direct sales 114,477 68,241 54,330 19,234
Net sales 5,122,172 5,669,731 5,731,261 6,779,643

Growth
By Product Category
Architecture solution 7.99% 0.20% 17.75%
Trading goods 22.43% 4.47% 20.29%
Net sales 10.69% 1.09% 18.29%

By Distribution Channel
Owned distributor 11.40% 1.85% 17.39%
Third party distributor 15.42% -2.50% 32.54%
Direct sales -40.39% -20.39% -64.60%
Net sales 10.69% 1.09% 18.29%

Proportion
By Product Category
Architecture solution 81.30% 79.31% 78.62% 78.26%
Trading goods 18.70% 20.69% 21.38% 21.74%
Net sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

By Distribution Channel
Owned distributor 86.72% 87.28% 87.95% 87.28%
Third party distributor 11.04% 11.51% 11.10% 12.44%
Direct sales 2.23% 1.20% 0.95% 0.28%
Net sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Population (in million) 264.1616 266.9119 270.2039 272.6825

Growth 1.07% 1.04% 1.23% 0.92%
Urbanization rate 55.33% 55.98% 56.64% 57.29%
Number of urban residents 146.16061328 149.41728162 153.04348896 156.21980425
 Growth 2.23% 2.43% 2.08%

Owned DC 78 90 95 101
Third party DC 33
Mini owned DC

Avr Rev/Owned DC 56,951.03 54,986.38 53,058.45 58,583.84

Growth -3.45% -3.51% 10.41%

0.65% 0.66% 0.65%

Urban Architecture
146.1606133 4,164,191
149.4172816 4,496,901
153.043489 4,506,022
156.2198043 5,305,745
159.7557623 5,384,019
 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

5,384,019 5,746,961 6,100,017 6,479,808 6,840,675 7,184,859

1,310,152 1,362,558 1,417,060 1,487,913 1,577,188 1,687,591
6,694,171 7,109,519 7,517,078 7,967,722 8,417,863 8,872,450

5,841,474 6,224,653 6,621,461 6,970,921 7,334,516 7,649,172

822,453 810,211 858,031 956,962 1,041,258 1,178,916
30,244 35,351 37,585 39,839 42,089 44,362
6,694,171 7,070,215 7,517,078 7,967,722 8,417,863 8,872,450

1.48% 6.74% 6.14% 6.23% 5.57% 5.03%

-11.11% 4.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00%
-1.26% 6.20% 5.73% 5.99% 5.65% 5.40%

-1.28% 6.56% 6.37% 5.28% 5.22% 4.29%

-2.49% -1.49% 5.90% 11.53% 8.81% 13.22%
57.24% 16.89% 6.32% 5.99% 5.65% 5.40%
-1.26% 5.62% 6.32% 5.99% 5.65% 5.40%

80.43% 80.83% 81.15% 81.33% 81.26% 80.98%

19.57% 19.17% 18.85% 18.67% 18.74% 19.02%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

87.26% 88.04% 88.09% 87.49% 87.13% 86.21%

12.29% 11.46% 11.41% 12.01% 12.37% 13.29%
0.45% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

275.7738 278.8073118 281.83263812 284.83 287.706783 290.32491473

1.13% 1.10% 1.09% 1.06% 1.01% 0.91%
57.93% 58.53% 59.22% 60.00% 60.72% 61.42%
159.75576234 163.1859196 166.90128829 170.898 174.69555864 178.31756262
 2.26% 2.15% 2.28% 2.39% 2.22% 2.07%

109 115 121 126 131 135

37
4 13

53,591.50 54,127.42 54,722.82 55,324.77 55,988.67 56,660.53

-8.52% 1.00% 1.10% 1.10% 1.20% 1.20%

0.64% 0.60% 0.69% 0.78% 0.72% 0.70%

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.94238119
R Square 0.8880823
Adjusted R Squa 0.8507764
Standard Error 209393.872
Observations 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.04E+12 1.04E+12 23.80541 0.016459
Residual 3 1.32E+11 4.38E+10
Total 4 1.18E+12

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept -9759920.2 2979758 -3.27541 0.046587 -1.90E+07 -276999
X Variable 1 95025.8554 19476.19 4.879079 0.016459 33043.94 157007.8
https://www.bps.go.id/indicator/12/1975/1/jumlah-penduduk-per
https://jakarta.bps.go.id/publication/2013/10/16/11cca69f3da6b3
statista
 https://www.idx.co.id/StaticData/NewsAndAnnouncement/ANNO

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-1.90E+07 -276999
33043.94 157007.8
975/1/jumlah-penduduk-pertengahan-tahun.html
2013/10/16/11cca69f3da6b3755a5a6648/proyeksi-penduduk-indonesia.html
wsAndAnnouncement/ANNOUNCEMENTSTOCK/From_EREP/202310/264acd0202_e27cce5fd8.pdf
(Expressed in millions of Rupiah) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A
Raw material usage 1,789,983 1,723,512 1,526,678 2,312,107 2,144,055
Direct labor 56,137 62,893 67,127 74,015 76,306
Factory overhead 123,050 124,593 128,838 152,237 165,265
WIP and FG 639,886 1,033,659 1,084,370 981,173 1,049,941
Promotional goods consumption 317,364 379,583 398,881 434,578 541,204
Cost of goods sold 2,926,420 3,324,240 3,205,894 3,954,110 3,976,771

Proportion
Raw material usage 34.95% 30.40% 26.64% 34.10% 32.03%
Direct labor 1.10% 1.11% 1.17% 1.09% 1.14%
Factory overhead 2.40% 2.20% 2.25% 2.25% 2.47%
WIP and FG 12.49% 20.18% 21.17% 19.16% 20.50%
Promotional goods consumption 6.20% 6.69% 6.96% 6.41% 8.08%
Cost of goods sold 57.13% 58.63% 55.94% 58.32% 59.41%

Polipropilena (Plastik) 9,628.96 8,670.31 7,604.49 8,628.73 8,265.85

Growth -9.96% -12.29% 13.47% -4.21%
Crude oil 64.82504 56.98629 39.65159 68.01384 94.35479
Growth -12.09% -30.42% 71.53% 38.73%
Lead 20,068.89 18,582.92 17,110.36 31,172.40 30,959.31
Growth -7.40% -7.92% 82.18% -0.68%

Polipropilena (Plastik) Crude oil Lead Raw material used SUMMARY OUTPUT
9,628.96 64.82504 20,068.89 1,789,983
8,670.31 56.98629 18,582.92 1,723,512 Regression Statistics
7,604.49 39.65159 17,110.36 1,526,678 Multiple R
8,628.73 68.01384 31,172.40 2,312,107 R Square
8,265.85 94.35479 30,959.31 2,144,055 Adjusted R Squa
Standard Error
Observations

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
1,879,314 1,860,884 1,949,255 2,029,016 1,973,945 timah
79,742 84,699 90,055 94,452 100,091 minyak
164,402 172,475 184,359 195,883 207,908 plastik
1,329,424 1,498,947 1,584,991 1,653,029 1,750,846
488,357 526,473 562,955 596,539 640,759
3,941,238 4,143,478 4,371,615 4,568,920 4,673,548

26.43% 24.76% 24.46% 24.10% 22.25%

1.12% 1.13% 1.13% 1.12% 1.13%
2.31% 2.29% 2.31% 2.33% 2.34%
18.70% 19.94% 19.89% 19.64% 19.73%
6.87% 7.00% 7.07% 7.09% 7.22%
55.44% 55.12% 54.87% 54.28% 52.67%

7,541.50 8,142.18 8,036.55 8,122.96 8,021.81

-8.76% 7.96% -1.30% 1.08% -1.25%
78.13 80.16621 72.06329 78.54563 80.65198
-17.20% 2.61% -10.11% 9.00% 2.68%
26,123.25 24,789.65 26,030.99 27,815.12 27,143.66
-15.62% -5.11% 5.01% 6.85% -2.41%

MMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.99481
0.98964
0.95856
65333.66
5

df SS MS F Significance F
3 4.08E+11 1.36E+11 31.84149 0.129372
1 4.27E+09 4.27E+09
4 4.12E+11

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 095%
-544.889 420950 -0.001290 0.999176 -5349222 5348132 -5349222
102.8582 48.83438 2.106267 0.282190 -517.6410 723.3579 -517.6410
-3958.15 3,071.159 -1.288810 0.420090 -42980.9 35064.63 -42980.9
54.1052 8.535017 6.339203 0.099605 -54.3425 162.5529 -54.3425
Upper 095%
5348132
723.3579
35064.63
162.5529
Revenue
Distribution Channel (DC) Addition
Average Revenue/DC
Architecture Solution
Trading Goods

Costs
Raw Material Expenses
Selling Expenses
General and Administrative Expenses
Tax Rate
Rationale
According to our analysis and historical data, AVIA could approximately reach 6 additional DCs in FY2023, and able to add 4-5

Revenue from architectural solution products will increase gradually along with the increasing rate of urbanization in Indonesia,
increase demand for paint products.

Expenditures on raw materials will increase/decrease in accordance with commodity price movements, especially crude oil, lea
polypropylene. Therefore, we estimate raw material costs in accordance with the forecasted average annual index prices of the
commodities.
Most of the accounts other than depreciation and amortization are estimated using proportion (%) of net sales.
Most
Refersoftothe accounts
Law other (UU
No. 7, 2021 thanNo
depreciation and Harmonization
7 2021) about amortization areofestimated using proportion
Tax Regulations (UU HPP), (%) of net sales.
corporate income tax of 22% w
FY2023 ‒ going forward.
er the next four years.
(Expressed in millions of Rupiah) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
NET REVENUES 5,122,172 5,669,732 5,731,260 6,779,643
COST OF GOODS SOLD (2,926,420) (3,324,241) (3,205,894) (3,954,110)
GROSS PROFIT 2,195,752 2,345,491 2,525,366 2,825,533
Selling expenses (772,472) (897,892) (910,149) (889,065)
General and administrative expenses (152,499) (197,048) (177,225) (181,567)
Other operating income, net 31,047 33,740 9,768
Finance income 62,267 50,957 53,019 80,679
Finance costs (15) (9,734) (37,102)
Share of loss of a joint venture (1,682) (3,890) (1,259)
Other
PROFIT(expenses)/income,
BEFORE INCOME net
TAX 47,486
EXPENSE 1,362,398 1,331,358 1,491,045 1,844,705
Income tax expense (324,375) (371,989) (354,897) (410,154)
PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 1,038,023 959,369 1,136,148 1,434,551

Selling expenses -15.08% -15.84% -15.88% -13.11%

General and administrative expenses -2.98% -3.48% -3.09% -2.68%
Finance income 1.22% 0.90% 0.93% 1.19%
Finance costs 0.00% -0.17% -0.55%
Income tax expense 23.81% 27.94% 23.80% 22.23%
 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
6,694,171 7,109,519 7,517,078 7,967,722 8,417,863 8,872,450
(3,976,771) (3,941,238) (4,143,478) (4,371,615) (4,568,920) (4,673,548)
2,717,400 3,168,281 3,373,600 3,596,106 3,848,943 4,198,902
(1,027,025) (1,070,037) (1,130,923) (1,186,103) (1,236,376) (1,331,070)
(214,622) (219,388) (233,597) (241,738) (254,414) (274,261)

293,722 75,174 76,509 83,468 90,761 95,662

(6,463) (9,469) (10,012) (10,612) (11,212) (11,818)
(1,426) (1,456) (1,380) (1,421) (1,419) (1,407)
(16,339)
1,745,247 1,943,106 2,074,197 2,239,700 2,436,283 2,676,009
(344,882) (427,483) (456,323) (492,734) (535,982) (588,722)
1,400,365 1,515,623 1,617,874 1,746,966 1,900,301 2,087,287

-15.34% -15.05% -15.04% -14.89% -14.69% -15.00%

-3.21% -3.09% -3.11% -3.03% -3.02% -3.09%
4.39% 1.06% 1.02% 1.05% 1.08% 1.08%
-0.10% -0.13% -0.13% -0.13% -0.13% -0.13%
19.76% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
(500,249)
(Expressed in millions of Rupiah) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents 1,293,788 855,450 1,361,184 1,288,214
Restricted cash in bank and time deposits
Investment in government bonds 4,840,680
Accounts receivable 834,802 979,103 1,046,259 1,274,261
Inventories, net 1,143,189 1,148,460 1,007,154 1,446,353
Right of return assets 5,874 12,703
Advance to suppliers 10,736 1,426 7,742 6,876
Prepaid expenses 52,234 110,292 17,262 11,297
Other current financial assets 475,616
Prepaid taxes 509 375 410 6,054
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 3,335,258 3,095,107 3,921,501 8,886,439

NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Investment properties 265,673 283,929 282,846 295,640
Fixed assets, net 1,406,585 1,499,803 1,523,900 1,551,224
Right-of-use assets 131,685 115,741
Intangible assets
Investment in joint venture
Advances payment for purchase of 28,312 24,423 17,741
fixed assets 14,695 39,945 7,630
Deferred tax asset
Other non-current assets 2,067 4,223 3,323 6,975
TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 1,717,333 1,852,322 1,949,384 1,987,321

TOTAL ASSETS 5,052,591 4,947,429 5,870,885 10,873,760

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Bank loans 671
Accounts payable 350,412 429,847 519,195 824,407
Unearned revenue 2,559 1,677 1,828 2,590
Accrued expenses 103,181 117,225 277,928 323,481
Short-term employee benefits
Taxes payable 97,963 82,234 180,436 140,136
Customer guarantee 2,000 3,100 6,129 4,219
Refund liabilities 9,361
Provision for sales return 19,601
Current maturities of lease liability 27,700 24,576
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 556,115 634,084 1,022,578 1,339,681

NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Employee benefits liability 85,971 86,423 81,275 53,934
Deferred tax liabilities, net 397 7,811 9,014 19,692
Lease liability - non-current portion 73,384 44,833
TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 86,368 94,233 163,672 118,459

TOTAL LIABILITIES 642,483 728,318 1,186,250 1,458,140

EQUITY
Share capital 557,536 557,536 557,536 619,536
Additional paid-in capital 2,208,573 2,208,573 2,208,573 7,793,218
Revaluation surplus of fixed assets 168,370 213,438 213,438 213,548
Changes in fair value of investment in
government bonds (835)
Changes in fair value of investment in
financial assets 18,389
Share of other comprehensive income
of joint venture
Remeasurement gain (loss) on post-
employment benefits liability (14,637) (10,071) 916 16,329
Retained earnings 1,490,264 1,249,633 1,685,780 770,393
Non-controlling interests 2 2 3 3,431
TOTAL EQUITY 4,410,108 4,219,111 4,684,634 9,415,620

TOTAL LIABILlTlES AND EQUITY 5,052,591 4,947,429 5,870,885 10,873,760

Days sales outstanding 59.49 63.03 66.63 68.60

Days inventory outstanding 142.59 126.10 114.67 133.51
Investment in government bonds
Advance to suppliers 0.37% 0.04% 0.24% 0.17%

Fixed assets, net 6.63% 1.61% 1.79%

Intangible assets
Deferred tax asset
Other non-current assets

Bank loans
Days payable outstanding 43.71 47.20 59.11 76.10
Unearned revenue 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% 0.04%
Accrued expenses 2.01% 2.07% 4.85% 4.77%
Taxes payable 12.22 9.03 20.54 12.94

Deferred tax liabilities, net

Changes in fair value of investment in
government bonds
Non-controlling interests
 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

2,170,720 2,776,665 3,270,798 3,947,570 4,352,222 4,694,340

3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100
3,875,023 3,293,770 3,129,081 3,066,499 3,005,169 3,065,273
1,177,215 1,324,513 1,379,847 1,418,909 1,499,071 1,580,025
1,447,229 1,565,697 1,589,279 1,557,014 1,627,286 1,664,551
12,657 12,680 12,669 12,674 12,671 12,673
7,822 13,794 11,013 10,736 11,257 12,193
21,416 19,339 20,378 19,858 20,118 19,988

1,533 707 756 851 962 819

8,716,715 9,010,265 9,416,921 10,037,212 10,531,858 11,052,963

285,986 287,100 287,893 289,155 287,534 287,920

1,588,086 1,637,330 1,688,100 1,740,445 1,794,413 1,850,055
132,190 126,539 124,823 127,851 126,404 126,359
23,369 25,706 28,276 31,104 34,215 37,636
16,400 17,071 16,735 16,903 16,819 16,861

5,547 5,824 6,116 6,421 6,742 7,080

23,829 35,744 46,467 58,083 69,700 83,640
2,075,407 2,135,313 2,198,410 2,269,962 2,335,827 2,409,551

10,792,122 11,145,578 11,615,331 12,307,174 12,867,685 13,462,514

7,229 3,950 4,543 5,678 7,098 8,872

586,816 593,885 635,712 682,691 726,020 742,646
2,025 2,133 2,404 3,187 3,367 3,549
257,448 249,523 286,308 331,218 349,931 368,828
72,255 72,255 72,255 72,255 72,255 72,255
112,399 140,466 149,467 167,608 175,172 179,184
3,100 3,100 3,930 4,096 3,689 3,583

16,494 18,048 17,271 17,659 17,465 17,562

50,397 26,138 25,357 25,748 25,552 25,650
1,108,163 1,109,497 1,197,246 1,310,139 1,380,549 1,422,128

47,588 50,761 49,175 49,968 49,571 49,769

 38,350 40,268 42,281 44,395 46,615 48,945
23,136 25,450 27,995 30,794 33,873 37,261
109,074 116,478 119,450 125,157 130,059 135,976

1,217,237 1,225,975 1,316,696 1,435,296 1,510,608 1,558,104

619,536 619,536 619,536 619,536 619,536 619,536

7,793,218 7,793,218 7,793,218 7,793,218 7,793,218 7,793,218
226,494 226,494 226,494 226,494 226,494 226,494

(138,276) (89,407) (59,539) 140,689 181,077 237,596

85 85 85 85 85 85

13,259 10,168 13,252 12,226 11,882 12,453

1,055,790 1,358,915 1,714,847 2,099,179 2,555,251 3,056,200
4,779 6,213 7,952 10,099 12,624 15,780
9,574,885 9,925,221 10,315,845 10,901,527 11,400,167 11,961,363

10,792,122 11,151,197 11,632,540 12,336,823 12,910,776 13,519,467

(5,618) (17,209) (29,649) (43,091) (56,953)

64.19 68 67 65 65 65
132.83 145 140 130 130 130
-15% -5% -2% -2% 2%
0.20% 0.35% 0.27% 0.25% 0.25% 0.26%

2.38% 3.10% 3.10% 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%

10%
5%
50% 30% 25% 20% 20%

15% 25.448207703 25%

53.86 55 56 57 58 58
0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%
3.85% 3.51% 3.81% 4.16% 4.16% 4.16%
10.32 13.01 13.17 13.99 13.99 13.99

5%
 -30%
39.29% 30% 28% 27% 25% 25%
(Expressed
CASH FLOWinFROM
millions of Rupiah)
OPERATING 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
ACTIVITIES
Cash received
Payments from customers
to suppliers, employees, and 4,992,255 5,528,130 5,728,608 6,617,183
other (3,971,534) (4,274,479) (3,719,745) (4,961,905)
Other receipts 8,522 8,689 14,273 16,620
Payments of interest expenses (15)
Receipts of finance income 62,267 50,957 47,260 26,728
Payments of corporate
Net cash flows income
generated taxes
from (355,429) (366,713) (268,342) (426,627)
operating activities 736,066 946,584 1,802,054 1,271,999

CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING

ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from sale
Proceeds from disposal of fixed assets
of investment in 4,953 10,275 7,968 11,649
government bonds 604,503
Acquisition of shares of a subsidiary (16,641)
Purchase of fixed assets (398,051) (195,200) (119,261) (138,485)
Additions of investment (422,020)
Addition of right-of-use assets (42,335)
Addition
Additionsofofintangible assets
investment in government
bonds and joiint venture
Net cash flows provided from/(used (4,982,713)
in) investing activities (393,098) (184,925) (533,314) (4,564,022)

CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING

ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from bank loan 930,000
Payment of bank loans (935,113)
Payments of shares’ issuance costs (119,356)
Addition of new shares 5,766,000
Payments of lease liabilities (62,981) (35,575)
Payment
Issuance ofof interest expense
subsidiary’s shares to non- (37,102)
controlling interests
Payments of cash
Net cash flows dividends
(used in)/provided 1 (1,200,000) (700,000) (2,350,001)
from financing activities 1 (1,200,000) (762,981) 3,218,853

NET INCREASE/(DECREASE)
Net effect IN
of foreign currency exchange
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS
rate changes on cash and cash 342,967 (438,341) 505,759 (73,170)
equivalents
CASH 5 3 (25) (1)
CASH AND CASH
, CASH EQUIVALENTS
EQUIVALENTS ANDAT
BEGINNING OF YEAR
BANK OVERDRAFT AT END OF 950,816 1,293,788 855,450 1,361,385
YEAR 1,293,788 855,450 1,361,184 1,288,214

Increase/(Decrease) in receivable
Payments to suppliers, employees, and 144,301 67,156 228,002
other -79.55% -77.32% -64.93% -74.99%
Receipts
Proceedsoffrom
finance
sale income
of investment in 100.00% 100.00% 89.14% 33.13%
government bonds
Payments of corporate income taxes 109.57% 98.58% 75.61% 104.02%
Purchase of investment
Additions of fixed assetsin government 7.77% 3.44% 2.08% 2.04%
bonds and joiint venture
Proceeds from bank loan
Payments of lease liabilities 85.82% 79.35%
DPR 125.08% 61.61% 163.81%
 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

6,781,888 6,962,221 7,461,744 7,928,660 8,337,701 8,791,496

(5,257,409) (5,212,135) (5,516,090) (5,807,383) (6,245,605) (6,584,177)
11,601 11,941 12,625 13,412 13,240 12,564

302,422 73,689 74,998 81,819 88,968 93,773

(377,003) (450,445) (476,040) (521,093) (569,161) (620,568)
1,461,499 1,385,272 1,557,238 1,695,414 1,625,143 1,693,087

16,398 10,249 11,308 11,514 12,224 12,338

1,125,162 1,068,904 836,703 1,010,256 923,480 959,836

(173,684) (180,599) (173,989) (189,075) (206,709) (214,789)

(66,285) (54,310) (60,298) (57,304) (58,801) (58,052)

(10,909)
(330,750) (363,825) (374,740) (385,982) (397,561) (409,488)
559,932 480,419 238,985 389,410 272,633 289,845

32,535 35,789 39,367 43,304 47,634 52,398

(33,206) (43,018) (43,317) (47,847) (53,313) (59,496)

(25,374) (23,316) (26,188) (30,264) (32,004) (35,560)

(6,463) (9,469) (10,012) (10,612) (11,212) (11,818)
1,518
(1,115,164) (1,212,498) (1,261,942) (1,362,633) (1,444,229) (1,586,338)
(1,146,154) (1,252,513) (1,302,092) (1,408,052) (1,493,122) (1,640,813)

875,277 613,179 494,131 676,772 404,654 342,119

(5) 2 (1) (1) (1)
1,288,214 2,163,491 2,776,665 3,270,798 3,947,570 4,352,222
2,163,491 2,776,665 3,270,798 3,947,570 4,352,222 4,694,340

(97,046) 147,298 55,334 39,062 80,162 80,954

-77.52% -74.86% -73.92% -73.25% -74.91% -74.89%
102.96% 98.02% 98.02% 98.02% 98.02% 98.02%
-5%
109.31% 105% 104.32% 105.76% 106.19% 105%
2.59% 2.54% 2.31% 2.37% 2.46% 2.42%
10%
10%
109.67% 92% 94% 98% 94% 95%
79.63% 80% 78% 78% 76% 76%
AVIA AVIAN (IDX:AVIA) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Notes
Profitability Ratio
Return on Equity 26.7% 22.2% 25.5% 20.3% 14.7% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.9%
Return on Assets 23.0% 19.2% 21.0% 17.1% 12.9% 13.8% 14.2% 14.6% 15.1% 15.9%
Gross Profit Margin 42.9% 41.4% 44.1% 41.7% 40.6% 44.6% 44.9% 45.1% 45.7% 47.3%
Operating Profit Margin 26.6% 23.5% 26.0% 27.2% 26.1% 27.3% 27.6% 28.1% 28.9% 30.2%
Pretax Margin 26.6% 23.5% 26.0% 27.2% 26.1% 27.3% 27.6% 28.1% 28.9% 30.2%
Net Profit Margin 20.3% 16.9% 19.8% 21.2% 20.9% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 22.6% 23.5%
Dividend Payout 0.0% 125.1% 61.6% 163.8% 79.6% 80.0% 78.0% 78.0% 76.0% 76.0%
Retained Earnings % of Net Income 1.00 (0.25) 0.38 (0.64) 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.24

Activity Ratio
Cash Turnover (incl bonds & Deposits) 4.56 5.28 5.17 1.81 1.10 1.17 1.20 1.19 5.56 1.17
Receiveable Turnover 6.72 6.25 5.66 5.84 5.46 5.68 5.56 5.69 5.77 5.76
Inventory Turnover 2.93 2.90 2.97 3.22 2.75 2.62 2.63 2.78 2.87 2.84
Payables Turnover 10.18 8.53 6.46 6.54 5.61 6.85 6.75 6.55 6.55 6.38
Working Capital Turnover 2.11 2.16 2.14 1.30 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94
Current Assets Turnover 1.73 1.76 1.63 1.06 0.76 0.80 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82
Fixed Assets Turnover 3.06 3.11 3.16 3.67 3.57 3.69 3.80 3.93 4.04 4.15
Total Asset Turnover 1.14 1.13 1.06 0.81 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.67
Days Cash Outstanding 80 69 71 202 332 311 303 307 66 311
Days Receiveables Outstanding 54 58 64 62 67 64 66 64 63 63
Days Inventory Outstanding 125 126 123 113 133 140 139 131 127 129
Days Payable Outstanding 36 43 57 56 65 53 54 56 56 57
Days Working Capital Outstanding 173 169 171 281 413 398 391 388 388 386

Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio 6.00 4.88 3.83 6.63 7.87 8.12 7.87 7.66 7.63 7.77
Quick Ratio 3.83 2.89 2.35 1.91 3.02 3.70 3.88 4.10 4.24 4.41
Cash Ratio 2.33 1.35 1.33 0.96 1.96 2.50 2.73 3.01 3.15 3.30
NWC to Total Assets 0.55 0.50 0.49 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.72
Cash Conversion Cycle 143.03 141.43 130.69 119.86 134.54 150.48 150.57 139.77 134.76 134.64

Solvency Ratio
Liabilities-to-Assets 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12
Debt-to-Assets 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Debt-to-Capital 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Debt-to-Equity 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Equity-to-Tangible Assets 0.89 0.87 0.89 0.88 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.88
Equity Multiplier 1.15 1.17 1.25 1.15 1.13 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13
Degree of Total Leverage
Degree of Operating Leverage
Coverage Ratio
Asset Coverage N/A* N/A* 42.65 134.87 118.37 178.02 177.43 174.38 170.49 165.71
Interest Coverage 112,205.20 N/A* 156.65 51.46 276.74 211.40 213.24 216.98 223.10 232.15
Cash Flow Coverage N/A* N/A* 17.83 18.15 18.10 24.94 26.90 27.25 24.43 23.59
Debt Service Coverage 86,788.53 N/A* 13.06 295.57 85.12 -119.25 162.43 145.15 151.98 151.88
Time Interest Coverage 86,788.53 N/A* 148.73 48.58 225.81 198.41 200.66 204.31 210.32 219.47

Additional Financial Data for Ratio Analysis

Total (Interest-bearing) Debt 0.00 0.00 101,084.00 70,080.00 80,762.00 55,537.60 57,894.06 62,219.64 66,523.32 71,782.70
Current 0.00 0.00 0.00 671.00 7,229.00 3,950.00 4,542.50 5,678.13 7,097.66 8,872.07
Non-Current 0.00 0.00 101,084.00 69,409.00 73,533.00 51,587.60 53,351.56 56,541.52 59,425.67 62,910.63
Total Debt Service 15.00 0.00 110,818.00 6,098.00 17,145.00 -15,754.98 12,368.73 14,938.08 15,515.74 17,076.92
Tangible Asset, net of prepaid and deferred as 4,989,112.00 4,835,336.00 5,232,296.00 10,721,089.00 10,587,588.00 10,940,989.25 11,411,300.73 12,097,678.43 12,655,315.48 13,245,766.21
Current, net of prepaid assets 3,271,779.00 2,983,014.00 3,414,597.00 8,849,509.00 8,673,287.00 8,963,745.30 9,372,105.51 9,993,092.22 10,486,849.65 11,007,290.08
Non-Current, net of deferred asset 1,717,333.00 1,852,322.00 1,817,699.00 1,871,580.00 1,914,301.00 1,977,243.95 2,039,195.22 2,104,586.21 2,168,465.83 2,238,476.13
Intangible Asset 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,369.00 25,705.90 28,276.49 31,104.14 34,214.55 37,636.01
Current 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Non-Current 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,369.00 25,705.90 28,276.49 31,104.14 34,214.55 37,636.01
Fixed Assets, Ending Balance 1,406,585.00 1,499,803.00 1,523,900.00 1,551,224.00 1,588,086.00 1,637,329.70 1,688,100.36 1,740,445.32 1,794,413.41 1,850,054.95 0.00
Depreciation & Amortization (320,665.00) (93,218.00) (24,097.00) (27,324.00) (36,862.00) (49,243.70) (50,770.66) (52,344.96) (53,968.09) (55,641.54)
EBITDA 1,683,078.00 1,424,576.00 1,524,876.00 1,909,131.00 1,788,572.00 2,001,819.37 2,134,980.05 2,302,657.21 2,501,463.06 2,743,467.68
CAPEX 338,921 92,135 36,891 17,670 37,976 50,037 52,032 50,724 54,355
Operating Profit/EBIT 1,301,828 1,284,291 1,447,760 1,802,387 1,459,414 1,878,857 2,009,080 2,168,265 2,358,153 2,593,571

DuPont
Tax Burden 76.19% 72.06% 76.20% 77.77% 80.24% 78.00% 78.00% 78.00% 78.00% 78.00%
Interest Burden 104.65% 103.66% 102.99% 102.35% 119.59% 103.42% 103.24% 103.29% 103.31% 103.18%
EBIT Margin 25.42% 22.65% 25.26% 26.59% 21.80% 26.43% 26.73% 27.21% 28.01% 29.23%
Total Asset Turnover 1.14 1.13 1.06 0.81 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.67
Leverage 1.16 1.16 1.22 1.19 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.13
ROE 26.80% 22.24% 25.52% 20.35% 14.75% 15.54% 15.99% 16.47% 17.04% 17.87%

Altman Z Score (2022)

Working Capital/Total Assets 0.71
Retained Earnings/Total Assets 0.10
EBIT/Total Assets 0.14
Market Value of Equity/Total Liabilities 25.45
Sales/Total Assets 0.62
17.32

Industry Average
Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover
Receiveable Turnover
Payables Turnover

Local
 Date Adj Close (AVIA) Adj Close (IHSG)Return (MYOR) Return (IHSG)
12/9/2021 783.6212 6643.932
12/10/2021 821.1599 6652.922 0.047904 0.001353
12/13/2021 839.9293 6662.871 0.022857 0.001495
12/14/2021 830.5446 6615.637 -0.011173 -0.007089
12/15/2021 835.2369 6626.257 0.005650 0.001605
12/16/2021 863.3909 6594.798 0.033708 -0.004748
12/17/2021 849.314 6601.932 -0.016304 0.001082
12/20/2021 835.2369 6547.112 -0.016575 -0.008304
12/21/2021 839.9293 6554.309 0.005618 0.001099
12/22/2021 854.0063 6529.593 0.016760 -0.003771
12/23/2021 858.6987 6555.551 0.005495 0.003975
12/24/2021 854.0063 6562.9 -0.005465 0.001121
12/27/2021 877.468 6575.444 0.027473 0.001911
12/28/2021 872.7756 6598.343 -0.005348 0.003483
12/29/2021 858.6987 6600.677 -0.016129 0.000354
12/30/2021 868.0833 6581.482 0.010929 -0.002908
1/3/2022 868.0833 6665.308 0.000000 0.012737
1/4/2022 863.3909 6695.373 -0.005405 0.004511
1/5/2022 854.0063 6662.299 -0.010869 -0.004940
1/6/2022 858.6987 6653.351 0.005495 -0.001343
1/7/2022 858.6987 6701.316 0.000000 0.007209
1/10/2022 863.3909 6691.124 0.005464 -0.001521
1/11/2022 835.2369 6647.97 -0.032609 -0.006449
1/12/2022 854.0063 6647.065 0.022472 -0.000136
1/13/2022 849.314 6658.356 -0.005494 0.001699
1/14/2022 863.3909 6693.401 0.016574 0.005263
1/17/2022 849.314 6645.048 -0.016304 -0.007224
1/18/2022 830.5446 6614.059 -0.022099 -0.004663
1/19/2022 844.6216 6591.981 0.016949 -0.003338
1/20/2022 849.314 6626.871 0.005556 0.005293
1/21/2022 835.2369 6726.373 -0.016575 0.015015
1/24/2022 830.5446 6655.166 -0.005618 -0.010586
1/25/2022 825.8522 6568.173 -0.005650 -0.013071
1/26/2022 830.5446 6600.819 0.005682 0.004970
1/27/2022 825.8522 6611.161 -0.005650 0.001567
1/28/2022 816.4675 6645.511 -0.011364 0.005196
1/31/2022 816.4675 6631.151 0.000000 -0.002161
2/2/2022 821.1599 6707.652 0.005747 0.011537
2/3/2022 821.1599 6683.851 0.000000 -0.003548
2/4/2022 821.1599 6731.391 0.000000 0.007113
2/7/2022 816.4675 6804.937 -0.005714 0.010926
2/8/2022 811.7751 6789.522 -0.005747 -0.002265
 2/9/2022 802.3905 6834.606 -0.011561 0.006640
2/10/2022 797.6982 6823.642 -0.005848 -0.001604
2/11/2022 788.3135 6815.607 -0.011765 -0.001178
2/14/2022 778.9288 6734.486 -0.011905 -0.011902
2/15/2022 764.8517 6807.497 -0.018072 0.010841
2/16/2022 774.2364 6850.198 0.012270 0.006273
2/17/2022 807.0828 6835.117 0.042424 -0.002202
2/18/2022 807.0828 6892.818 0.000000 0.008442
2/21/2022 797.6982 6902.965 -0.011628 0.001472
2/22/2022 783.6212 6861.994 -0.017647 -0.005935
2/23/2022 764.8517 6920.056 -0.023952 0.008461
2/24/2022 760.1594 6817.82 -0.006135 -0.014774
2/25/2022 764.8517 6888.171 0.006173 0.010319
3/1/2022 760.1594 6921.441 -0.006135 0.004830
3/2/2022 755.4672 6868.402 -0.006173 -0.007663
3/4/2022 708.5436 6928.328 -0.062112 0.008725
3/7/2022 666.3126 6869.066 -0.059603 -0.008554
3/8/2022 666.3126 6814.183 0.000000 -0.007990
3/9/2022 671.0049 6864.441 0.007042 0.007375
3/10/2022 671.0049 6924.008 0.000000 0.008678
3/11/2022 685.082 6922.602 0.020979 -0.000203
3/14/2022 685.082 6952.204 0.000000 0.004276
3/15/2022 685.082 6918.185 0.000000 -0.004893
3/16/2022 680.3896 6992.395 -0.006849 0.010727
3/17/2022 736.6977 6964.385 0.082759 -0.004006
3/18/2022 713.236 6954.965 -0.031847 -0.001353
3/21/2022 708.5436 6955.181 -0.006579 0.000031
3/22/2022 699.1589 7000.822 -0.013245 0.006562
3/23/2022 689.7743 6996.115 -0.013423 -0.000672
3/24/2022 699.1589 7049.685 0.013605 0.007657
3/25/2022 703.8513 7002.532 0.006711 -0.006689
3/28/2022 699.1589 7049.603 -0.006667 0.006722
3/29/2022 713.236 7011.689 0.020134 -0.005378
3/30/2022 750.7748 7053.19 0.052632 0.005919
3/31/2022 732.0054 7071.442 -0.025000 0.002588
4/1/2022 717.9284 7078.76 -0.019231 0.001035
4/4/2022 713.236 7116.218 -0.006536 0.005292
4/5/2022 708.5436 7148.299 -0.006579 0.004508
4/6/2022 717.9284 7104.216 0.013245 -0.006167
4/7/2022 727.313 7127.367 0.013072 0.003259
4/8/2022 736.6977 7210.835 0.012903 0.011711
4/11/2022 717.9284 7203.794 -0.025478 -0.000976
4/12/2022 722.6207 7214.781 0.006536 0.001525
4/13/2022 732.0054 7262.777 0.012987 0.006652
4/14/2022 741.3901 7235.532 0.012821 -0.003751
4/18/2022 769.5441 7275.289 0.037975 0.005495
4/19/2022 778.9288 7199.232 0.012195 -0.010454
4/20/2022 778.9288 7227.362 0.000000 0.003907
4/21/2022 778.9288 7276.193 0.000000 0.006756
4/22/2022 783.6212 7225.606 0.006024 -0.006952
4/25/2022 778.9288 7215.979 -0.005988 -0.001332
4/26/2022 778.9288 7232.153 0.000000 0.002241
4/27/2022 741.3901 7196.764 -0.048193 -0.004893
4/28/2022 769.5441 7228.914 0.037975 0.004467
5/9/2022 746.0824 6909.751 -0.030488 -0.044151
5/10/2022 741.3901 6819.794 -0.006289 -0.013019
5/11/2022 725.2729 6816.203 -0.021739 -0.000527
5/12/2022 682.6098 6599.84 -0.058824 -0.031742
5/13/2022 673.1291 6597.993 -0.013889 -0.000280
5/17/2022 706.3115 6644.467 0.049296 0.007044
5/18/2022 711.0518 6793.414 0.006711 0.022417
5/19/2022 706.3115 6823.335 -0.006667 0.004404
5/20/2022 744.2343 6918.144 0.053691 0.013895
5/23/2022 696.8308 6840.775 -0.063694 -0.011183
5/24/2022 706.3115 6914.141 0.013605 0.010725
5/25/2022 701.5712 6883.504 -0.006711 -0.004431
5/27/2022 701.5712 7026.256 0.000000 0.020738
5/30/2022 692.0905 7037.565 -0.013514 0.001610
5/31/2022 701.5712 7148.97 0.013699 0.015830
6/2/2022 696.8308 7148.723 -0.006757 -0.000035
6/3/2022 725.2729 7182.961 0.040816 0.004789
6/6/2022 734.7536 7096.582 0.013072 -0.012026
6/7/2022 739.494 7141.045 0.006452 0.006265
6/8/2022 730.0132 7193.314 -0.012821 0.007320
6/9/2022 739.494 7182.83 0.012987 -0.001457
6/10/2022 715.7922 7086.648 -0.032051 -0.013391
6/13/2022 711.0518 6995.442 -0.006623 -0.012870
6/14/2022 753.7149 7049.882 0.060000 0.007782
6/15/2022 758.4553 7007.05 0.006289 -0.006076
6/16/2022 777.4167 7050.326 0.025000 0.006176
6/17/2022 748.9746 6936.967 -0.036585 -0.016079
6/20/2022 739.494 6976.377 -0.012658 0.005681
6/21/2022 734.7536 7044.071 -0.006410 0.009703
6/22/2022 763.1957 6984.311 0.038710 -0.008484
6/23/2022 777.4167 6998.267 0.018633 0.001998
6/24/2022 777.4167 7042.937 0.000000 0.006383
6/27/2022 763.1957 7016.055 -0.018293 -0.003817
6/28/2022 772.6763 6996.456 0.012422 -0.002793
6/29/2022 772.6763 6942.351 0.000000 -0.007733
6/30/2022 772.6763 6911.582 0.000000 -0.004432
7/1/2022 782.157 6794.328 0.012270 -0.016965
7/4/2022 782.157 6639.172 0.000000 -0.022836
7/5/2022 820.0798 6703.266 0.048485 0.009654
7/6/2022 820.0798 6646.41 0.000000 -0.008482
7/7/2022 815.3394 6652.587 -0.005780 0.000929
7/8/2022 843.7816 6740.219 0.034884 0.013173
7/11/2022 862.7429 6722.145 0.022472 -0.002682
7/12/2022 881.7043 6718.294 0.021978 -0.000573
7/13/2022 900.6657 6640.99 0.021505 -0.011506
7/14/2022 895.9253 6690.087 -0.005263 0.007393
7/15/2022 876.9639 6651.905 -0.021164 -0.005707
7/18/2022 839.0412 6659.253 -0.043243 0.001105
7/19/2022 862.7429 6736.092 0.028249 0.011539
7/20/2022 867.4833 6874.743 0.005495 0.020583
7/21/2022 848.5219 6864.131 -0.021858 -0.001544
7/22/2022 815.3394 6886.962 -0.039106 0.003326
7/25/2022 810.5991 6858.407 -0.005814 -0.004146
7/26/2022 805.8588 6871.537 -0.005848 0.001914
7/27/2022 820.0798 6898.216 0.017647 0.003883
7/28/2022 843.7816 6956.817 0.028902 0.008495
7/29/2022 810.5991 6951.123 -0.039326 -0.000818
8/1/2022 805.8588 6968.783 -0.005848 0.002541
8/2/2022 853.2622 6988.157 0.058823 0.002780
8/3/2022 853.2622 7046.635 0.000000 0.008368
8/4/2022 839.0412 7057.348 -0.016667 0.001520
8/5/2022 815.3394 7084.655 -0.028249 0.003869
8/8/2022 824.8201 7086.849 0.011628 0.000310
8/9/2022 834.3008 7102.88 0.011494 0.002262
8/10/2022 853.2622 7086.236 0.022727 -0.002343
8/11/2022 848.5219 7160.385 -0.005556 0.010464
8/12/2022 853.2622 7129.277 0.005587 -0.004344
8/15/2022 848.5219 7093.276 -0.005556 -0.005050
8/16/2022 839.0412 7133.453 -0.011173 0.005664
8/18/2022 829.5605 7186.558 -0.011299 0.007445
8/19/2022 839.0412 7172.434 0.011429 -0.001965
8/22/2022 853.2622 7107.983 0.016949 -0.008986
8/23/2022 843.7816 7163.265 -0.011111 0.007777
8/24/2022 848.5219 7194.706 0.005618 0.004389
8/25/2022 810.5991 7174.208 -0.044693 -0.002849
 8/26/2022 763.1957 7135.248 -0.058479 -0.005431
8/29/2022 753.7149 7132.045 -0.012423 -0.000449
8/30/2022 758.4553 7159.473 0.006289 0.003846
8/31/2022 739.494 7178.59 -0.025000 0.002670
9/1/2022 748.9746 7153.104 0.012820 -0.003550
9/2/2022 763.1957 7177.179 0.018987 0.003366
9/5/2022 777.4167 7231.883 0.018633 0.007622
9/6/2022 791.6378 7233.155 0.018293 0.000176
9/7/2022 772.6763 7186.757 -0.023952 -0.006415
9/8/2022 801.1185 7232.017 0.036810 0.006298
9/9/2022 801.1185 7242.656 0.000000 0.001471
9/12/2022 820.0798 7254.464 0.023669 0.001630
9/13/2022 763.1957 7318.016 -0.069364 0.008760
9/14/2022 772.6763 7278.078 0.012422 -0.005457
9/15/2022 767.936 7305.601 -0.006135 0.003782
9/16/2022 829.5605 7168.87 0.080247 -0.018716
9/19/2022 801.1185 7195.488 -0.034286 0.003713
9/20/2022 791.6378 7196.951 -0.011834 0.000203
9/21/2022 782.157 7188.314 -0.011976 -0.001200
9/22/2022 786.8974 7218.906 0.006061 0.004256
9/23/2022 782.157 7178.583 -0.006024 -0.005586
9/26/2022 777.4167 7127.503 -0.006061 -0.007116
9/27/2022 763.1957 7112.449 -0.018293 -0.002112
9/28/2022 767.936 7077.031 0.006211 -0.004980
9/29/2022 782.157 7036.198 0.018518 -0.005770
9/30/2022 753.7149 7040.798 -0.036364 0.000654
10/3/2022 782.157 7009.718 0.037736 -0.004414
10/4/2022 786.8974 7072.256 0.006061 0.008922
10/5/2022 791.6378 7075.385 0.006024 0.000442
10/6/2022 777.4167 7076.623 -0.017964 0.000175
10/7/2022 796.3781 7026.783 0.024390 -0.007043
10/10/2022 796.3781 6994.395 0.000000 -0.004609
10/11/2022 782.157 6939.145 -0.017857 -0.007899
10/12/2022 777.4167 6909.209 -0.006061 -0.004314
10/13/2022 753.7149 6880.625 -0.030488 -0.004137
10/14/2022 730.0132 6814.53 -0.031447 -0.009606
10/17/2022 739.494 6831.115 0.012987 0.002434
10/18/2022 748.9746 6834.494 0.012820 0.000495
10/19/2022 744.2343 6860.416 -0.006329 0.003793
10/20/2022 734.7536 6980.652 -0.012739 0.017526
10/21/2022 739.494 7017.771 0.006452 0.005317
10/24/2022 725.2729 7053.044 -0.019231 0.005026
10/25/2022 715.7922 7048.38 -0.013072 -0.000661
10/26/2022 711.0518 7043.939 -0.006623 -0.000630
10/27/2022 711.0518 7091.761 0.000000 0.006789
10/28/2022 692.0905 7056.04 -0.026667 -0.005037
10/31/2022 744.2343 7098.89 0.075342 0.006073
11/1/2022 744.2343 7052.303 0.000000 -0.006563
11/2/2022 748.9746 7015.69 0.006369 -0.005192
11/3/2022 734.7536 7034.573 -0.018987 0.002692
11/4/2022 744.2343 7045.527 0.012903 0.001557
11/7/2022 744.2343 7102.396 0.000000 0.008072
11/8/2022 720.5325 7050.126 -0.031847 -0.007359
11/9/2022 701.5712 7070.084 -0.026316 0.002831
11/10/2022 692.0905 6966.837 -0.013514 -0.014603
11/11/2022 696.8308 7089.206 0.006849 0.017564
11/14/2022 687.3502 7019.392 -0.013605 -0.009848
11/15/2022 682.6098 7035.5 -0.006897 0.002295
11/16/2022 687.3502 7014.384 0.006945 -0.003001
11/17/2022 711.0518 7044.986 0.034483 0.004363
11/18/2022 701.5712 7082.181 -0.013333 0.005280
11/21/2022 720.5325 7063.247 0.027027 -0.002673
11/22/2022 748.9746 7030.588 0.039474 -0.004624
11/23/2022 758.4553 7054.123 0.012658 0.003348
11/24/2022 777.4167 7080.515 0.025000 0.003741
11/25/2022 763.1957 7053.15 -0.018293 -0.003865
11/28/2022 758.4553 7017.358 -0.006211 -0.005075
11/29/2022 768.056 7012.069 0.012658 -0.000754
11/30/2022 739.2539 7081.313 -0.037500 0.009875
12/1/2022 729.6532 7020.803 -0.012987 -0.008545
12/2/2022 691.2504 7019.639 -0.052632 -0.000166
12/5/2022 696.0508 6987.328 0.006945 -0.004603
12/6/2022 696.0508 6892.57 0.000000 -0.013561
12/7/2022 696.0508 6818.752 0.000000 -0.010710
12/8/2022 700.8511 6804.227 0.006896 -0.002130
12/9/2022 691.2504 6715.118 -0.013699 -0.013096
12/12/2022 696.0508 6734.452 0.006945 0.002879
12/13/2022 705.6515 6810.316 0.013793 0.011265
12/14/2022 686.45 6801.749 -0.027211 -0.001258
12/15/2022 681.6497 6751.86 -0.006993 -0.007335
12/16/2022 638.4465 6812.193 -0.063380 0.008936
12/19/2022 619.2451 6779.698 -0.030075 -0.004770
12/20/2022 609.6445 6768.316 -0.015504 -0.001679
12/21/2022 619.2451 6820.663 0.015748 0.007734
12/22/2022 614.4448 6824.432 -0.007752 0.000553
12/23/2022 604.8441 6800.673 -0.015625 -0.003481
12/26/2022 604.8441 6835.808 0.000000 0.005166
12/27/2022 609.6445 6923.027 0.007937 0.012759
12/28/2022 624.0455 6850.52 0.023622 -0.010473
12/29/2022 614.4448 6860.077 -0.015385 0.001395
12/30/2022 604.8441 6850.619 -0.015625 -0.001379
1/2/2023 600.0438 6850.984 -0.007936 0.000053
1/3/2023 595.2434 6888.758 -0.008000 0.005514
1/4/2023 595.2434 6813.239 0.000000 -0.010963
1/5/2023 595.2434 6653.841 0.000000 -0.023395
1/6/2023 600.0438 6684.558 0.008065 0.004616
1/9/2023 595.2434 6688.265 -0.008000 0.000555
1/10/2023 580.8423 6622.499 -0.024194 -0.009833
1/11/2023 571.2416 6584.453 -0.016529 -0.005745
1/12/2023 604.8441 6629.934 0.058824 0.006907
1/13/2023 604.8441 6641.83 0.000000 0.001794
1/16/2023 633.6462 6688.057 0.047619 0.006960
1/17/2023 652.8476 6767.34 0.030303 0.011854
1/18/2023 648.0472 6765.786 -0.007353 -0.000230
1/19/2023 643.2469 6819.907 -0.007407 0.007999
1/20/2023 643.2469 6874.931 0.000000 0.008068
1/24/2023 638.4465 6860.854 -0.007463 -0.002048
1/25/2023 643.2469 6829.93 0.007519 -0.004507
1/26/2023 638.4465 6864.818 -0.007463 0.005108
1/27/2023 633.6462 6898.981 -0.007519 0.004977
1/30/2023 633.6462 6872.481 0.000000 -0.003841
1/31/2023 624.0455 6839.342 -0.015152 -0.004822
2/1/2023 628.8459 6862.258 0.007692 0.003351
2/2/2023 648.0472 6890.572 0.030534 0.004126
2/3/2023 643.2469 6911.732 -0.007407 0.003071
2/6/2023 624.0455 6873.791 -0.029851 -0.005489
2/7/2023 624.0455 6935.301 0.000000 0.008948
2/8/2023 633.6462 6940.124 0.015385 0.000695
2/9/2023 638.4465 6897.365 0.007576 -0.006161
2/10/2023 604.8441 6880.329 -0.052632 -0.002470
2/13/2023 619.2451 6900.14 0.023809 0.002879
2/14/2023 624.0455 6941.855 0.007752 0.006046
2/15/2023 609.6445 6914.538 -0.023077 -0.003935
2/16/2023 614.4448 6895.664 0.007874 -0.002730
2/17/2023 614.4448 6895.714 0.000000 0.000007
2/20/2023 614.4448 6894.717 0.000000 -0.000145
2/21/2023 614.4448 6873.405 0.000000 -0.003091
2/22/2023 600.0438 6809.968 -0.023437 -0.009229
2/23/2023 600.0438 6839.454 0.000000 0.004330
2/24/2023 590.4431 6856.576 -0.016000 0.002503
2/27/2023 590.4431 6854.777 0.000000 -0.000262
2/28/2023 600.0438 6843.239 0.016260 -0.001683
3/1/2023 590.4431 6844.936 -0.016000 0.000248
3/2/2023 590.4431 6857.415 0.000000 0.001823
3/3/2023 580.8423 6813.636 -0.016260 -0.006384
3/6/2023 585.6427 6807.001 0.008265 -0.000974
3/7/2023 590.4431 6766.758 0.008197 -0.005912
3/8/2023 585.6427 6776.37 -0.008130 0.001420
3/9/2023 595.2434 6799.795 0.016393 0.003457
3/10/2023 590.4431 6765.302 -0.008064 -0.005073
3/13/2023 585.6427 6786.955 -0.008130 0.003201
3/14/2023 580.8423 6641.814 -0.008197 -0.021385
3/15/2023 580.8423 6628.137 0.000000 -0.002059
3/16/2023 552.0402 6565.728 -0.049587 -0.009416
3/17/2023 552.0402 6678.237 0.000000 0.017136
3/20/2023 547.2399 6612.49 -0.008696 -0.009845
3/21/2023 547.2399 6691.611 0.000000 0.011965
3/24/2023 566.4413 6762.254 0.035088 0.010557
3/27/2023 566.4413 6708.933 0.000000 -0.007885
3/28/2023 576.042 6760.328 0.016949 0.007661
3/29/2023 556.8406 6839.436 -0.033333 0.011702
3/30/2023 561.641 6808.951 0.008621 -0.004457
3/31/2023 571.2416 6805.277 0.017094 -0.000540
4/3/2023 580.8423 6827.175 0.016807 0.003218
4/4/2023 571.2416 6833.178 -0.016529 0.000879
4/5/2023 580.8423 6819.675 0.016807 -0.001976
4/6/2023 595.2434 6792.765 0.024793 -0.003946
4/10/2023 595.2434 6771.235 0.000000 -0.003170
4/11/2023 576.042 6811.314 -0.032258 0.005919
4/12/2023 552.0402 6798.964 -0.041667 -0.001813
4/13/2023 561.641 6785.598 0.017391 -0.001966
4/14/2023 561.641 6818.574 0.000000 0.004860
4/17/2023 556.8406 6787.582 -0.008547 -0.004545
4/18/2023 547.2399 6821.807 -0.017241 0.005042
4/26/2023 585.6427 6910.147 0.070175 0.012950
4/27/2023 590.4431 6945.477 0.008197 0.005113
4/28/2023 576.042 6915.716 -0.024390 -0.004285
5/2/2023 586.8 6863.302 0.018676 -0.007579
5/3/2023 611.25 6812.722 0.041667 -0.007370
5/4/2023 616.14 6844.027 0.008000 0.004595
5/5/2023 616.14 6787.631 0.000000 -0.008240
5/8/2023 635.7 6769.631 0.031746 -0.002652
 5/9/2023 621.03 6779.98 -0.023077 0.001529
5/10/2023 655.26 6811.905 0.055118 0.004709
5/11/2023 650.37 6755.938 -0.007463 -0.008216
5/12/2023 689.49 6707.763 0.060150 -0.007131
5/15/2023 674.82 6711.74 -0.021277 0.000593
5/16/2023 669.93 6676.564 -0.007246 -0.005241
5/17/2023 674.82 6663.114 0.007299 -0.002015
5/19/2023 684.6 6700.561 0.014493 0.005620
5/22/2023 684.6 6729.647 0.000000 0.004341
5/23/2023 699.27 6736.684 0.021429 0.001046
5/24/2023 699.27 6745.804 0.000000 0.001354
5/25/2023 684.6 6704.231 -0.020979 -0.006163
5/26/2023 674.82 6687.001 -0.014286 -0.002570
5/29/2023 679.71 6681.102 0.007246 -0.000882
5/30/2023 679.71 6636.423 0.000000 -0.006687
5/31/2023 669.93 6633.261 -0.014388 -0.000476
6/5/2023 713.94 6633.437 0.065693 0.000027
6/6/2023 704.16 6618.923 -0.013699 -0.002188
6/7/2023 728.61 6619.755 0.034722 0.000126
6/8/2023 718.83 6666.33 -0.013423 0.007036
6/9/2023 713.94 6694.024 -0.006803 0.004154
6/12/2023 694.38 6722.373 -0.027397 0.004235
6/13/2023 689.49 6719.014 -0.007042 -0.000500
6/14/2023 679.71 6699.717 -0.014184 -0.002872
6/15/2023 665.04 6713.795 -0.021583 0.002101
6/16/2023 655.26 6698.547 -0.014706 -0.002271
6/19/2023 689.49 6686.059 0.052239 -0.001864
6/20/2023 665.04 6660.455 -0.035461 -0.003829
6/21/2023 650.37 6702.625 -0.022059 0.006331
6/22/2023 645.48 6652.261 -0.007519 -0.007514
6/23/2023 660.15 6639.733 0.022727 -0.001883
6/26/2023 650.37 6664.668 -0.014815 0.003755
6/27/2023 650.37 6661.879 0.000000 -0.000418
7/3/2023 645.48 6696.716 -0.007519 0.005229
7/4/2023 640.59 6681.754 -0.007576 -0.002234
7/5/2023 635.7 6718.977 -0.007634 0.005571
7/6/2023 635.7 6757.331 0.000000 0.005708
7/7/2023 650.37 6716.459 0.023077 -0.006049
7/10/2023 640.59 6731.038 -0.015038 0.002171
7/11/2023 640.59 6796.924 0.000000 0.009788
7/12/2023 630.81 6808.209 -0.015267 0.001660
7/13/2023 625.92 6810.213 -0.007752 0.000294
7/14/2023 630.81 6869.572 0.007812 0.008716
7/17/2023 625.92 6867.144 -0.007752 -0.000353
7/18/2023 611.25 6830.203 -0.023437 -0.005379
7/20/2023 606.36 6864.189 -0.008000 0.004976
7/21/2023 596.58 6880.802 -0.016129 0.002420
7/24/2023 606.36 6899.396 0.016393 0.002702
7/25/2023 606.36 6917.711 0.000000 0.002655
7/26/2023 606.36 6948.279 0.000000 0.004419
7/27/2023 601.47 6896.663 -0.008065 -0.007429
7/28/2023 596.58 6900.23 -0.008130 0.000517
7/31/2023 606.36 6931.359 0.016393 0.004511
8/1/2023 601.47 6886.496 -0.008065 -0.006472
8/2/2023 596.58 6854.51 -0.008130 -0.004645
8/3/2023 596.58 6898.077 0.000000 0.006356
8/4/2023 601.47 6852.842 0.008197 -0.006558
8/7/2023 625.92 6886.366 0.040650 0.004892
8/8/2023 625.92 6868.813 0.000000 -0.002549
8/9/2023 630.81 6875.112 0.007812 0.000917
8/10/2023 625.92 6893.276 -0.007752 0.002642
8/11/2023 621.03 6879.979 -0.007812 -0.001929
8/14/2023 606.36 6910.172 -0.023622 0.004389
8/15/2023 601.47 6915.101 -0.008065 0.000713
8/16/2023 586.8 6900.538 -0.024390 -0.002106
8/18/2023 601.47 6859.912 0.025000 -0.005887
8/21/2023 601.47 6866.033 0.000000 0.000892
8/22/2023 601.47 6916.45 0.000000 0.007343
8/23/2023 596.58 6921.41 -0.008130 0.000717
8/24/2023 606.36 6899.392 0.016393 -0.003181
8/25/2023 606.36 6895.443 0.000000 -0.000572
8/28/2023 591.69 6921.727 -0.024194 0.003812
8/29/2023 591.69 6957.835 0.000000 0.005217
8/30/2023 581.91 6966.656 -0.016529 0.001268
8/31/2023 586.8 6953.26 0.008403 -0.001923
9/1/2023 586.8 6977.654 0.000000 0.003508
9/4/2023 586.8 6996.75 0.000000 0.002737
9/5/2023 581.91 6991.708 -0.008333 -0.000721
9/6/2023 581.91 6995.953 0.000000 0.000607
9/7/2023 577.02 6954.808 -0.008403 -0.005881
9/8/2023 577.02 6924.78 0.000000 -0.004318
9/11/2023 581.91 6963.393 0.008475 0.005576
9/12/2023 572.13 6933.969 -0.016807 -0.004226
9/13/2023 567.24 6935.476 -0.008547 0.000217
9/14/2023 552.57 6959.333 -0.025862 0.003440
9/15/2023 586.8 6982.791 0.061947 0.003371
 9/18/2023 562.35 6936.083 -0.041667 -0.006689
9/19/2023 562.35 6980.321 0.000000 0.006378
9/20/2023 557.46 7011.681 -0.008696 0.004493
9/21/2023 557.46 6991.466 0.000000 -0.002883
9/22/2023 557.46 7016.844 0.000000 0.003630
9/25/2023 562.35 6998.381 0.008772 -0.002631
9/26/2023 547.68 6923.8 -0.026087 -0.010657
9/27/2023 547.68 6937.828 0.000000 0.002026
9/29/2023 547.68 6939.892 0.000000 0.000297
10/2/2023 547.68 6961.459 0.000000 0.003108
10/3/2023 542.79 6940.887 -0.008929 -0.002955
10/4/2023 542.79 6886.576 0.000000 -0.007825
10/5/2023 557.46 6874.826 0.027027 -0.001706
10/6/2023 547.68 6888.518 -0.017544 0.001992
10/9/2023 542.79 6891.455 -0.008929 0.000426
10/10/2023 542.79 6922.188 0.000000 0.004460
10/11/2023 523.23 6931.753 -0.036036 0.001382
10/12/2023 523.23 6935.151 0.000000 0.000490
10/13/2023 523.23 6926.78 0.000000 -0.001207
10/16/2023 523.23 6896.292 0.000000 -0.004401
10/17/2023 528.12 6939.615 0.009346 0.006282
10/18/2023 508.56 6927.906 -0.037037 -0.001687
10/19/2023 503.67 6846.427 -0.009615 -0.011761
10/20/2023 498.78 6849.168 -0.009709 0.000400
10/23/2023 489 6741.964 -0.019608 -0.015652
10/24/2023 510 6806.762 0.042945 0.009611
10/25/2023 500 6834.388 -0.019608 0.004059
10/26/2023 494 6714.519 -0.012000 -0.017539
10/27/2023 494 6758.793 0.000000 0.006594
10/30/2023 490 6735.892 -0.008097 -0.003388
10/31/2023 500 6752.211 0.020408 0.002423
11/1/2023 496 6642.418 -0.008000 -0.016260
11/2/2023 484 6751.386 -0.024194 0.016405
11/3/2023 484 6788.85 0.000000 0.005549
11/6/2023 510 6878.836 0.053719 0.013255
Beta 0.5430
https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com
https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
Components Number
Adj. beta 0.6953
Rf 6.83%
Equity risk premium 7.89%
Cost of Equity 12.32%
% of Equity 0.89
Cost of Debt 6.25%
Tax 22.00%
Cost of Debt (after-tax 4.88%
% of Debt 0.11
WACC 11.48%
s://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-historical-data/indonesia/10-years/
s://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
(Expressed in millions of Rupiah) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A
Net sales 5,122,172 5,669,732 5,731,260 6,779,643 6,694,171
Cost of goods sold (2,926,420) (3,324,241) (3,205,894) (3,954,110) (3,976,771)
Gross Profit 2,195,752 2,345,491 2,525,366 2,825,533 2,717,400
Operating Expenses (893,924) (1,061,200) (1,077,606) (1,070,632) (1,241,647)
EBITDA 3,089,676 3,406,691 3,602,972 3,896,165 3,959,047
EBIT 3,024,494 3,315,129 3,447,990 3,734,631 3,783,031
Tax Rate 23.81% 27.94% 23.80% 22.23% 19.76%
EBIAT 2,304,389 2,388,863 2,627,303 2,904,269 3,035,458
Depreciation & Amortization 65,182 91,562 154,982 161,534 176,016
Capital Expenditures 398,051 195,200 119,261 138,485 184,593
Change in Net Working Capital 709,107 (318,120) 437,900 4,647,835 61,794
FCFF 1,262,413 2,603,345 2,225,124 (1,720,517) 2,965,087
PV of FCF

Sum of PV of FCF 12,248,884

Terminal Growth 3%
WACC 11.5%
Terminal Value 47,085,228
PV of Terminal Value 27,350,326
Enterprise Value 39,599,210
(+) Cash 6,070,435
(-) Total Debt 1,225,975
(-) Non controlling interest 6,213
Equity Value 44,437,457
Diluted Shares Outstanding 61,954
EV/share Rp717
Upside (Downside) 37.9%

D&A 7.29% 8.63% 14.38% 15.09% 14.18%

Net working capital 2,779,143 2,461,023 2,898,923 7,546,758 7,608,552
 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
7,109,519 7,517,078 7,967,722 8,417,863 8,872,450
(3,941,238) (4,143,478) (4,371,615) (4,568,920) (4,673,548)
3,168,281 3,373,600 3,596,106 3,848,943 4,198,902
(1,289,424) (1,364,520) (1,427,841) (1,490,790) (1,605,331)
4,457,706 4,738,121 5,023,947 5,339,734 5,804,233
4,304,095 4,575,564 4,853,847 5,162,134 5,612,988
22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00%
3,357,194 3,568,940 3,786,001 4,026,465 4,378,131
153,611 162,557 170,100 177,600 191,245
180,599 173,989 189,075 206,709 214,789
292,216 318,907 507,398 424,236 479,525
3,037,990 3,238,601 3,259,628 3,573,119 3,875,062
2,725,222 2,606,085 2,352,961 2,313,714 2,250,901

11.91% 11.91% 11.91% 11.91% 11.91%

7,900,768 8,219,675 8,727,073 9,151,309 9,630,834
in million rupiah Market Cap (7 Nov' 23) 2023 EBITDA 2023 EBIT
AVIA 32,215,560 4,457,706 4,304,095

Company Ticker Country 2023 P/E 2023 EV/EBITDA

Avian AVIA Indonesia 19.40x 12.30x

Sherwin-Williams SHW USA 26.80x 19.30x

PPG Industries, Inc PPG USA 17.90x 13.10x
RPM International, Inc RPM USA 20.50x 13.90x
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd AXTA USA 19.80x 10.40x
Akzo Nobel N.V AKZA Netherlands 19.40x 11.20x
Nippon Point Holdings Co Ltd 4612 Japan 23.40x 14.40x
Kansai Paint Co., Ltd 4613 Japan 17.10x 8.60x
Asian Paints Ltd APNT India 56.50x 38.70x
Berger Paints India Ltd BRGR India 51.30x 33.70x
Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd KNPL India 36.60x 22.20x
BASF SE BAS Germany 13.40x 7.60x
Masco Corporation MAS USA 15.90x 11.20x
Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. 4617 Japan 14.30x 11.70x

Arwana Citra Mulia ARNA Indonesia 10.60x 6.70x

Semen Indonesia Persero SMGR Indonesia 16.20x 7.10x
Indocement Tunggal Perkasa INTP Indonesia 16.30x 7.60x
Cahayaputra Asa Keramik Tbk CAKK Indonesia 23.04x 8.67x
Asiaplast Industries Tbk. APLI Indonesia 12.67x 6.57x
Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk DPNS Indonesia 9.76x 1.79x
Chandra Asri Petrochemical TbkTPIA Indonesia
Surya Pertiwi
Surya Toto Indonesia
Catur Sentosa Adiprana
Caturkarda Depo Bangunan
Argha Karya Prima Industri
Asiaplast Industries
Colorpak Indonesia

Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM Indonesia 6.80x 4.00x

Mayora Indah Tbk MYOR Indonesia 21.00x 12.10x
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna TbHMSP Indonesia 14.10x 10.20x
Djarum group
Salim group
Sinarmas group
Bakrie group
Indorama Synthetics Tbk INDR Indonesia

Peer Group Number of Peers 2023 P/E

Average
Global Peers 10 28.93x
Domestic - Chemicals Sector 3 14.37x

Avian 2023 Multiples 21.65x

Implied Enterprise Value
Net Debt
Implied Market Value 32,810,709
Shares Outstanding 61,953
Implied Value per Share 530
2023 Net Income2023 Revenue
1,515,623 7,109,519

2023 EV/EBIT 2023 EV/Revenue 2022 DAR

13.80x 3.30x 0.11

21.40x 3.60x 0.86

15.80x 2.10x 0.68
16.30x 2.10x 0.68
14.70x 1.90x 0.79
14.90x 1.50x 0.69
19.00x 2.20x 0.53
12.10x 1.10x 0.47
43.40x 8.10x 0.36
39.90x 5.80x 0.44
26.50x 3.10x 0.28
14.90x 0.80x 0.52
12.50x 2.10x 0.105
16.50x 0.70x 0.44

7.80x 1.90x 0.29

12.30x 1.50x 0.43
12.10x 1.60x 0.24
18.07x 1.70x 0.44
9.08x 1.46x 0.41
2.00x 0.20x 0.19
0.43

5.50x 0.40x 0.35

15.10x 1.70x 0.42
11.20x 1.00x 0.49
2023 P/E 2023 EV/EBITDA 2023 EV/EBIT 2023 EV/Revenue
Median Average Median Average Median Average
21.95x 18.55x 14.15x 22.40x 17.65x 3.15x
16.20x 7.13x 7.10x 10.73x 12.10x 1.67x

19.08x 12.84x 10.63x 16.57x 14.88x 2.41x

57,244,369 47,363,121 71,304,504 64,023,410 17,122,093
(1,550,690) (1,550,690) (1,550,690) (1,550,690) (1,550,690)
28,910,506 58,795,058 48,913,811 72,855,194 65,574,100 18,672,783
61,953 61,953 61,953 61,953 61,953 61,953
467 949 790 1,176 1,058 301
2023 EV/Revenue
Median
2.15x
1.60x

1.88x
13,330,349
(1,550,690)
14,881,039
61,953
240