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Yardstick international college

Worksheet for the course financial econometrics


First year accounting and finance MA students

Chapter three (multiple linear regression) and chapter four (diagnostics testing)

Instruction: based on the following results please answer to the point the following questions

Multiple linear regression

1. How many variables becomes statistically significant? List them

2. Identify the sign of all statistically significant variables?

3. At what significance level the variables becomes significant?

4. At what confidence level the variables become significance?

5. Interpret the resulting R square

F-test

6. Interpret the following f-test result


Heteroskedasticity test

7. Is there heteroskedasticity in the data? How do you know?

Autocorrelation test

8. Is there an autocorrelation problem in the data? How do you know?


Normality test

9. Does the residuals normally distributed or not? How do you know?

Multicollinerity test

10. Is there a multicollinearity problem among the explanatory variables? How do you know?
Chapter five (univariate forecasting/ARIMA model)

Instruction: interpret the steps in forecasting using ARIMA model from the following table.

ti foreca
ye qua ma( yt/ s- qua deseasonalize tren
m yt cma st
ar rter 4) cma index rter d (yt/s-index) d (t)
e (s*t))
ye 0.862
19
1 ar I 38306 I 2271.612316
59
1 9
25 1.130
2 II II 2295.959821
95 24626
236 239 1.064 1.070
25
3 III 6.2 9.12 55478 63000 III 2385.511327
54
5 5 6 3
247 0.951 0.938
23 243
4 IV 7.37 41026 00943 IV 2512.767903
57 2
5 3 5
ye 252 0.867 0.862
22 256
5 ar I 2.7 03736 38306 I 2576.581198
22 2.75
2 5 2 9
260 1.130
29 261 1.130
6 II 2.7 19390 II 2617.128767
58 7.25 24626
5 6
263 265 1.082 1.070
28
7 III 1.7 5.62 23111 63000 III 2684.400766
74
5 5 3 3
0.916 0.938
24 267 269
8 IV 09557 00943 IV 2636.434037
73 9.5 9.5
3 5
ye 0.880 0.862
24 271 274
9 ar I 65693 38306 I 2798.0605
13 9.5 0
3 4 9
279 1.115
1 31 276 1.130
II 5.87 21437 II 2758.690837
0 18 0.5 24626
5 8
283 1.064 1.070
1 30 285
III 1.2 47091 63000 III 2837.581603
1 38 4
5 8 3
287 0.938
1 27 292 0.943
IV 6.7 00943 IV 2938.136759
2 56 1.75 2703
5 5
ye 296 301 0.861 0.862
1 25
ar I 6.7 1.37 73259 38306 I 3009.103604
3 95
4 5 5 7 9
1.125
1 34 305 309 1.130
II 38424 II 3077.205494
4 78 6 0.5 24626
2
313 1.081 1.070
1 33 312
III 9.87 25323 63000 III 3171.030132
5 95 5
5 5 3
1 IV 30 315 319 0.949 0.938 IV 3232.37687
4.7 3.87 31705 00943
6 32
5 5 2 5
ye 0.834 0.862
1 27 323 325
ar I 30679 38306 I 3147.093326
7 14 3 3
5 4 9
329 1.151
1 37 327 1.130
II 1.87 62331 II 3354.136293
8 91 3 24626
5 5
331 1.060 1.070
1 35 335
III 0.7 63996 63000 III 3320.474851
9 55 1.75
5 4 3
339 0.929 0.938
2 31 342
IV 2.7 95398 00943 IV 3393.356061
0 83 2.75
5 4 5
ye 345 350 0.868 0.862
2 30
ar I 2.7 3.87 18165 38306 I 3527.434745
1 42
6 5 5 6 9
1.128
2 40 355 357 1.130
II 81545 II 3566.479398
2 31 5 1 24626
8
1.070
2 39 358
III 63000 III 3702.492914
3 64 7
3
0.938
2 33
IV 00943 IV 3529.815243
4 11
5

11. Why we calculate centered moving average (CMA) in the above table?

12. Why we divide yt by cma in the above table?

13. What is the importance of S-index?

14. What is the importance of deseasonalizing?

Chapter six (multivariate time series/VAR modelling)

Instruction: interpret the following VAR results?

15. What is the optimum lag according to schwarz information criteria?


16. Is there an autocorrelation problem at the selected lag? How do you know?

17. Interpret all the following granger causality tests


18. Interpret the following impulse response functions?
19. Interpret the following variance decomposition results?
Chapter seven (panel data modelling)

20. Interpret the following elasticities obtained from mixed-effect panel data model of trade.

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