4 5935800856413736668
4 5935800856413736668
4 5935800856413736668
Chapter three (multiple linear regression) and chapter four (diagnostics testing)
Instruction: based on the following results please answer to the point the following questions
F-test
Autocorrelation test
Multicollinerity test
10. Is there a multicollinearity problem among the explanatory variables? How do you know?
Chapter five (univariate forecasting/ARIMA model)
Instruction: interpret the steps in forecasting using ARIMA model from the following table.
ti foreca
ye qua ma( yt/ s- qua deseasonalize tren
m yt cma st
ar rter 4) cma index rter d (yt/s-index) d (t)
e (s*t))
ye 0.862
19
1 ar I 38306 I 2271.612316
59
1 9
25 1.130
2 II II 2295.959821
95 24626
236 239 1.064 1.070
25
3 III 6.2 9.12 55478 63000 III 2385.511327
54
5 5 6 3
247 0.951 0.938
23 243
4 IV 7.37 41026 00943 IV 2512.767903
57 2
5 3 5
ye 252 0.867 0.862
22 256
5 ar I 2.7 03736 38306 I 2576.581198
22 2.75
2 5 2 9
260 1.130
29 261 1.130
6 II 2.7 19390 II 2617.128767
58 7.25 24626
5 6
263 265 1.082 1.070
28
7 III 1.7 5.62 23111 63000 III 2684.400766
74
5 5 3 3
0.916 0.938
24 267 269
8 IV 09557 00943 IV 2636.434037
73 9.5 9.5
3 5
ye 0.880 0.862
24 271 274
9 ar I 65693 38306 I 2798.0605
13 9.5 0
3 4 9
279 1.115
1 31 276 1.130
II 5.87 21437 II 2758.690837
0 18 0.5 24626
5 8
283 1.064 1.070
1 30 285
III 1.2 47091 63000 III 2837.581603
1 38 4
5 8 3
287 0.938
1 27 292 0.943
IV 6.7 00943 IV 2938.136759
2 56 1.75 2703
5 5
ye 296 301 0.861 0.862
1 25
ar I 6.7 1.37 73259 38306 I 3009.103604
3 95
4 5 5 7 9
1.125
1 34 305 309 1.130
II 38424 II 3077.205494
4 78 6 0.5 24626
2
313 1.081 1.070
1 33 312
III 9.87 25323 63000 III 3171.030132
5 95 5
5 5 3
1 IV 30 315 319 0.949 0.938 IV 3232.37687
4.7 3.87 31705 00943
6 32
5 5 2 5
ye 0.834 0.862
1 27 323 325
ar I 30679 38306 I 3147.093326
7 14 3 3
5 4 9
329 1.151
1 37 327 1.130
II 1.87 62331 II 3354.136293
8 91 3 24626
5 5
331 1.060 1.070
1 35 335
III 0.7 63996 63000 III 3320.474851
9 55 1.75
5 4 3
339 0.929 0.938
2 31 342
IV 2.7 95398 00943 IV 3393.356061
0 83 2.75
5 4 5
ye 345 350 0.868 0.862
2 30
ar I 2.7 3.87 18165 38306 I 3527.434745
1 42
6 5 5 6 9
1.128
2 40 355 357 1.130
II 81545 II 3566.479398
2 31 5 1 24626
8
1.070
2 39 358
III 63000 III 3702.492914
3 64 7
3
0.938
2 33
IV 00943 IV 3529.815243
4 11
5
11. Why we calculate centered moving average (CMA) in the above table?
20. Interpret the following elasticities obtained from mixed-effect panel data model of trade.