Demand Function for Petrol

Barrels Average
Sr No. Year consumed/ GDP of Pakistan Closing Price/
Year Barrel
1 2022 178485000 $ 376.53 $ 94.53
2 2021 183595000 $ 348.26 $ 68.17
3 2020 158410000 $ 300.43 $ 39.68
4 2019 162790000 $ 320.91 $ 56.99
5 2018 182135000 $ 356.13 $ 65.23
6 2017 214985000 $ 339.21 $ 50.80
7 2016 206590000 $ 313.63 $ 43.29
8 2015 184325000 $ 270.56 $ 48.66
9 2014 167170000 $ 244.36 $ 93.17
10 2013 161330000 $ 231.22 $ 97.98
11 2012 146730000 $ 224.38 $ 94.05
12 2011 151110000 $ 213.59 $ 94.88
13 2010 150015000 $ 177.17 $ 79.48
14 2009 151475000 $ 168.15 $ 61.95
15 2008 141985000 $ 170.08 $ 99.67
16 2007 140160000 $ 152.39 $ 72.34
17 2006 129210000 $ 137.26 $ 66.05
18 2005 113150000 $ 120.06 $ 56.64
19 2004 118625000 $ 107.76 $ 41.51
20 2003 116800000 $ 91.76 $ 31.08
21 2002 130670000 $ 79.90 $ 26.19
Group 3:
M. Ammar Basharat
Majid Ali
Noor-e-Sehar

Qd=a-b*P+c*Y
Qd: Quantity of petrol demanded.
P: Price of petrol.
Y: Income of consumers.
a, b, and c are coefficients that need to be estimated through regression analysis.

References:
Prices Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends
Consumption Pakistan Oil Consumption (ycharts.com)
GDP Pakistan GDP 1960-2023 | MacroTrends
ugh regression analysis.

orical Chart | MacroTrends

arts.com)
croTrends
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.881172002073141
R Square 0.776464097237587
Adjusted R Square 0.75162677470843
Standard Error 13976388.2733562
Observations 21

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 2 1.2213398E+16
Residual 18 3.5161097E+15
Total 20 1.5729508E+16

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept 104188572.754704 10977105.5829
GDP of Pakistan 265672.875482542 33767.9935794
Average Closing Price/ Barrel -114659.254734967 136861.242135

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Barrels consumed/ Year Residuals

1 193383641.210049 -14898641.21
2 188895486.974971 -5300486.975
3 179454995.50804 -21044995.508
4 182911224.298461 -20121224.298
5 191323430.71394 -9188430.7139
6 188482778.706601 26502221.2934
7 182547957.554817 24042042.4452
8 170489706.609857 13835293.3901
9 158425593.843961 8744406.15604
10 154383141.244845 6946858.75515
11 153016549.647653 -6286549.6477
12 150054772.139766 1055227.86023
13 142144718.537611 7870281.46239
14 141758325.936262 9716674.06374
15 137946127.49734 4038872.50266
16 136380011.761961 3779988.23804
17 133081587.868193 -3871587.8682
18 129590957.996949 -16440957.997
19 128057976.152654 -9432976.1527
20 125003106.171819 -8203106.1718
21 122412909.62425 8257090.37575
 MS F Significance F
6106699035110568 31.26198874 1.3935597E-06
195339429167609

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
9.49144307378949 1.981793E-08 81126529.698 127250615.81 81126529.698 127250615.81
7.86759434959526 3.105712E-07 194728.95352 336616.79745 194728.95352 336616.79745
-0.83777739370157 0.4131421589 -402194.05479 172875.54532 -402194.05479 172875.54532

Standard Residuals GDP of Pakistan Residual Plot

-1.12364843105226 30000000
-0.39976020559661 20000000 Average Closing Price/ Barrel
-1.58720354767398 10000000 Residual Plot
Residuals

-1.51753316259246 0 GDP of Pakistan Line Fit Plot

-10000000 $- 30000000
$100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00
-0.69298707244436 20000000 250000000
Barrels consumed/ Year

-20000000 10000000
Average Closing Price/
Residuals

1.99878491977124 -30000000 0 200000000

1.81323940163086 -10000000 150000000
$20.00 $40.00
GDP of
-20000000 100000000
Pakistan $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 Line Fit Plot
Barrels consum
Predicted Barr
Barrels consumed/ Year

1.04345124443271 -30000000 consumed/ Ye

0.659498951561419 50000000 200000000 B
Average
0 Closing Price/ Barrel
P
0.523928781888276 $- 0
$200.00 $400.00 c
-0.47412858318602 -
GDP of Pakistan
$ 0 0
.0
0
.0
0
0. 00 50
0.079584783124684 $5 $ 1 $ 1
0.593572883088744 Average Closing Price/ Barrel
0.732826934539589
0.304609842391031
0.285084914334593
-0.29199331485624
-1.23996922926151
 -0.7114305730736
-0.61867436431066
0.622745827284579
 Plot
ice/ Barrel
lot
kistan
0.00
Line Fit Plot
$400.00

rage Closing Price/ Barrel

$80.00Line FitBarrels
$100.00 Plot consumed/ Year
$120.00
Predicted Barrels
consumed/ Year
Barrels consumed/ Year
ice/ Barrel
Predicted Barrels
0.00 $400.00 consumed/ Year
- 0 0 0
$tan 0.
0 .0 .0
$5 1 00 1 50
$ $
ge Closing Price/ Barrel
 Crude Oil Prices - Historical Annual Data

Average Annual
Closing Year Year Year Year %
Year Price Open High Low Close Change
2023 $78.08 $80.26 $93.84 $66.74 $83.58 3.81%

2022 $94.53 $76.08 $123.70 $71.59 $80.51 7.05%

2021 $68.17 $47.62 $84.65 $47.62 $75.21 55.01%

2020 $39.68 $61.17 $63.27 $11.26 $48.52 -20.64%

2019 $56.99 $46.31 $66.24 $46.31 $61.14 35.42%

2018 $65.23 $60.37 $77.41 $44.48 $45.15 -25.32%

2017 $50.80 $52.36 $60.46 $42.48 $60.46 12.48%

2016 $43.29 $36.81 $54.01 $26.19 $53.75 44.76%

2015 $48.66 $52.72 $61.36 $34.55 $37.13 -30.53%

2014 $93.17 $95.14 $107.95 $53.45 $53.45 -45.55%

2013 $97.98 $93.14 $110.62 $86.65 $98.17 6.90%

2012 $94.05 $102.96 $109.39 $77.72 $91.83 -7.08%

2011 $94.88 $91.59 $113.39 $75.40 $98.83 8.15%

2010 $79.48 $81.52 $91.48 $64.78 $91.38 15.10%

2009 $61.95 $46.17 $81.03 $34.03 $79.39 78.00%

2008 $99.67 $99.64 $145.31 $30.28 $44.60 -53.52%

2007 $72.34 $60.77 $99.16 $50.51 $95.95 57.68%

2006 $66.05 $63.11 $77.05 $55.90 $60.85 -0.34%

2005 $56.64 $42.16 $69.91 $42.16 $61.06 40.82%
2004 $41.51 $33.71 $56.37 $32.49 $43.36 33.37%
2003 $31.08 $31.97 $37.96 $25.25 $32.51 4.17%
2002 $26.19 $21.13 $32.68 $18.02 $31.21 56.36%
2001 $25.98 $27.29 $32.21 $17.50 $19.96 -25.30%
 Per
Year GDP Capita Growth Date Value in k
31-Dec-22 489
2022 $376.53B $1,597 6.19%
178485
31-Dec-21 503
2021 $348.26B $1,505 6.49%
183595
31-Dec-20 434
2020 $300.43B $1,322 -1.27%
158410 Pakistan Oil
31-Dec-19 446
2019 $320.91B $1,437 2.50%
162790 Pakistan G
31-Dec-18 499
2018 $356.13B $1,621 6.15%
182135 GDP
31-Dec-17 589
2017 $339.21B $1,568 4.43%
214985
31-Dec-16 566
2016 $313.63B $1,469 5.53%
206590
31-Dec-15 505
2015 $270.56B $1,282 4.73%
184325
31-Dec-14 458
2014 $244.36B $1,173 4.67%
167170
31-Dec-13 442
2013 $231.22B $1,126 4.40%
161330
31-Dec-12 402
2012 $224.38B $1,110 3.51%
146730
31-Dec-11 414
2011 $213.59B $1,075 2.75%
151110
31-Dec-10 411
2010 $177.17B $911 1.61%
150015
31-Dec-09 415
2009 $168.15B $884 2.83%
151475
31-Dec-08 389
2008 $170.08B $915 1.70%
141985
31-Dec-07 384
2007 $152.39B $838 4.83%
140160
31-Dec-06 354
2006 $137.26B $771 5.90%
129210
31-Dec-05 310
2005 $120.06B $689 6.52%
113150
31-Dec-04 325
2004 $107.76B $631 7.55%
118625
2003 $91.76B $550 5.78% 31-Dec-03 320 116800
2002 $79.90B $489 2.51% 31-Dec-02 358 130670
2001 $79.48B $499 3.55% 31-Dec-01 366 133590
31-Dec-00 372 135780
31-Dec-99 361 131765
31-Dec-98 348 127020
31-Dec-97 336.78 122924.7
31-Dec-96 326.42 119143.3
31-Dec-95 311.68 113763.2
31-Dec-94 287.86 105068.9
31-Dec-93 269 98185
31-Dec-92 246.79 90078.35
31-Dec-91 227.01 82858.65
31-Dec-90 216.69 79091.85
31-Dec-89 208.27 76018.55
31-Dec-88 194.75 71083.75
31-Dec-87 181.37 66200.05
31-Dec-86 166.94 60933.1
31-Dec-85 155.24 56662.6
31-Dec-84 144.54 52757.1
31-Dec-83 134.06 48931.9
31-Dec-82 122.04 44544.6
31-Dec-81 110.41 40299.65
31-Dec-80 103.85 37905.25
31-Dec-79 99.65 36372.25
31-Dec-78 93.04 33959.6
31-Dec-77 87.24 31842.6
31-Dec-76 82.4 30076
31-Dec-75 82.32 30046.8
31-Dec-74 79.06 28856.9
31-Dec-73 73.32 26761.8
: Pakistan Oil Consumption (ycharts.com)

: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/PAK/pakistan/gdp-gross-domestic-product

: Pakistan GDP 1960-2023 | MacroTrends