RESEARCH ARTICLE

ARTICLE TITLE: IMPLICATION OF WATER CRISIS ON THE

NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN

MODULE INSTRUCTOR: DR. ADAM SAUD

SUBMITTED BY: AWAIS AKRAM BACHA

IMPLICATION OF WATER CRISIS ON THE NATIONAL

SECURITY OF PAKISTAN
Abstract

The paper examines relationship between water crisis and national security. Water availability
in Pakistan has decreased manifold in last few decades; ultimately conflicts both at national as
well as sub national have emerged. Neo Malthusian model of Thomas Homer Dixon is applied of
assess the conflicts arising from water scarcity. Moreover, implication of water crisis on other
important aspects of national security such as food security, health and economy are evaluated.
Though the implications of water crisis are muted yet the situation warrants serious efforts. The
dormant situation could seriously undermine national security of Pakistan. Festering water
crisis warrants serious remedial efforts from state and society alike.

Introduction

National security can be defined as the absence of real or perceived threats; either originating
from external environment or internal challenges. According to Barry Buzan, “security is taken
to be about the pursuit of freedom from threat and the ability of states and societies to maintain
their independent identity and their functional integrity against forces of change which they see
as hostile”.1 The paradigm shift in strategic culture has made nontraditional threats a pertinent
part of security discourse. National security in 21st century entails threats which were often
overlooked and were considered as low politics. The post cold war doctrine has transcended
realist explanation of national security which was confined to military and geo strategic aspects.
Contemporary security discourse includes political, societal, economic, as well as environmental
aspects. The concept of water crisis is deeply related with national security; water insecurity
leads to urban violence and interstate disputes which could destabilize any state. Moreover, other
essential aspects of national security, i.e., food security, strong economy and health are
undermined by water crisis.

Water security can be described as sustainable access to adequate amount of water having
acceptable quality for socioeconomic development, human well being and protection against
water borne diseases.2 Within context of water security it can be deuced that water crisis is not
confined to having less water available to meet the demand; it is a more diverse term which
entails both quality and quantity.3 Apart from quality and quantity, management of water

1
Buzan, Barry. "New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-First Century." International
Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944- ) 67, no. 3 (1991): 431-51.
2
https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000216345/PDF/216345eng.pdf.multi.
3
Cosgrove, William J., and Frank R. Rijsberman. World Water Vision: Making Water
Everybody’s Business. London: Earthscan Publications Ltd, 2000.
resources, in efficient and just way, ensures availability of water for common masses. Thus the
water crisis can be summed up as scarcity of water, consisting of low quality as per WHO
guidelines, and mismanagement of existing resources.

Pakistan water woes, if analyzed through Falkenmark water scarcity indicator, have turned from
stress to scarcity. Pakistan has witnessed a significant decline in water availability per Capita.
Pakistan water profile has changed abruptly; a water abundant country transformed into water
scarce within few decades. Pakistan water availability per capita has approached around 1000 m3
which is classified as water insecure.4 Water crisis has emerged as an existential threat to
national security of Pakistan. Implications of water crisis are diverse and long lasting; it isn’t
confined to time or any particular sector. Due to water crisis, conflicts both at national as well as
sub national have emerged. Due to water crisis the economy of Pakistan suffers immensely.
Furthermore, the food insecurity increases, while water borne diseases put further stress on
meager state’s sources. The water crisis has obvious nexus with national security of Pakistan.
The water crisis is placed among major national security threats. The research critically appraises
the current water crisis and its implication for national security of Pakistan. The study is
primarily based on secondary data. Existing literature is explored; reports, research articles and
publication of governmental and nongovernmental organizations are considered. Furthermore
mix approach is adopted, as both qualitative and quantitative data is quoted.

Problem statement

The national security of Pakistan is jeopardized by traditional as well as nontraditional threats.

Along other nontraditional threats the water crisis has emerged as a formidable threat. The
sectoral analysis of water reveals a dismal situation in Pakistan. The availability of water is
dwindling with every passing day.

Water crisis has a direct impact on state security. National security is threatened by water crisis
in multiple ways. The foremost threat is direct conflicts among federating unit caused by existing

4
NARW. National Research Agenda on Water 2016-25. Islamabad: Pakistan Council of
Research in Water Resources /US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, 2016.
 sharing mechanism; similarly, due to water shortage and high prices spawn conflicts at urban
areas. Moreover, water crisis has direct implication over economy, food and health security.
Pakistan is also expected to suffer from adverse implication of water scarcity on national
security. This article is designed to explore nexus between water crisis and national security of
Pakistan.

Research questions

o How water scarcity is connected with national security?

o How water crisis emerged in Pakistan?
o What is the nature of interprovincial water disputes?
o Why water crisis is a national security threat to Pakistan?

Overview of water sector

The situational analysis of Pakistan water crisis has revealed multiple problems. Pakistan water
availability per capita has decreased from 2,172 m3 to 1,306 m3 between 1990 and 2015.5 The
analysis of water usage reveals that 90 percent of available fresh water is consumed by
agriculture.6 The rest of 10 percent used for both drinking and sanitation which remain
unavailable for a huge chunk of population. The problem with Pakistan water management
system is both quantitative and qualitative. Pakistan capacity to store water has been low; per
capita designed storage is 121 m3 that is only higher than Ethiopia (fig. 1). While on quality side,
the affluent of industrial as well as urban waste is dumped into river resulting in serious health
issues.

Figure 1: Water Storage Capacity - A Country Comparison

5
Development Advocates Pakistan. "Water Security in Pakistan issues and Challenges." UNDP
Pakistan, Dec 2016.
6
Altaf, Samia, Michael Kugelman, and Robert M. Hathaway, eds. Running on Empty:
Pakistan’s Water Crisis. Washington, D.C: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,
2009.
 Source: World bank (2006)

The genesis of water crisis can be studied with in context of increase in demand, decrease in
supply and substantial flaws within management regime. On the demand side factors such as
rapid growth in population, industrialization, higher demand for agriculture due water intensive
farming, and urban sprawling have led to immense increase in water consumption. While on
supply side, climate change has impeded provision of freshwater during summer season. Climate
change has already affected melting of glacier in a dramatic way. Yet another factor on supply
side is higher variation caused by unpredictable pattern of rainfall.7 On the management side,
water governance is plagued with mismanagement. Controversies over construction of dams,
apprehension of lower riparian over existing water distribution regime, and flawed pricing
mechanism both for domestic and agriculture use. In the latter case, warabandi system instead of
efficient water management leads to blatant wastage of water recourses. It is pertinent to
remember that water policy remained a least concern of successive governments. The fact is
evident from the lethargic attitude of state; Pakistan first ever water policy, national water policy
was approved by Committee on Common Interest in April 2018 after a long delay.8

7
“The Vulnerability of Pakistan’s Water Sector to the Impacts of Climate Change:
Identification of Gaps and Recommendations for Action.” UNDP Pakistan, 2017.
8
“CCI Unanimously Approves National Water Policy - Newspaper - DAWN.COM.” Accessed July 22,
2019. https://www.dawn.com/news/1403743.
Theoretical approach

The Neo-Malthusian approach has been applied to assess the impact of water resources scarcity
on national security of Pakistan in form of violent conflict. Among the Neo-Malthusian
approaches, the model of Thomas Homer Dixon is adopted for application of water scarcity on
the national security of state. The model Homer Dixon adopted in his book “Environment
scarcity and violence” is applied to assess the impact of resource scarcity, i.e., water on national
security. Thomas Dixon main argument is straightforward: ‘scarcity of renewable resources – or
environmental scarcity – can contribute to civil violence, including insurgencies and ethnic
clashes’.9

The environmental scarcity is induced by three factors. Firstly, by increase in demand due to
abrupt rise of population; secondly, the supply is affected by environmental stresses and
degradation of natural resources and lastly, the structural imbalances, which is, widening of
contrast in access to resources. The impact of environmental scarcity, as induced by above three
factors, results in emergence of powerful groups who tries to capture scarce resources;
Furthermore, the competition to capture the scarce resources results in ecological
marginalization, that is the process through which poor people migrate to ecologically fragile
areas . Dixon further explains that some states are unable to adapt to these challenges ultimately
result in conflict.

Figure 2: Graphical representation of Homer Dixon Model

9
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton University Press,
1999: pp.177.
 Source: (https://homerdixon.com/evidence-from-cases-full-article/)

The conflict may be simple scarcity conflict where competing groups are involved in violent
competition to grab resources. It may also be group identity conflict or insurgencies as result of
grievances found in people induced by environmental scarcity.

The model is relevant to Pakistan in the context of water as scarce resource. Environmental
scarcity of resources - water- is both demand and supply induced scarcity. The demand is
increasing due to rapid increase in population with the rate of 2.4 percent between 1998 and
2017.10 On the supply-side, the climate change has decreased the availability of water due to
change in the pattern of rainfall and premature glacial melting. Similarly, water degradation
through dumping of waste material goes unchecked. The structural inequality is evident in
contention over existing distribution of natural resources, i.e., water accord 1991.

This environmental scarcity has resulted in resource capture and ecological marginalization. The
resource capture is evident in case of large cities where tanker mafia operates and earns billions
of rupees from people. According to commission constituted by Sindh High Court reported that
tanker mafia and illegal hydrants are stealing water from water pipelines in major cities like
Karachi and Hyderabad thus depriving poor people of its due share. Similarly, the KW&SB and
Local Administration are running a parallel water network which has made accessibility of water

10
Pakistan Today.” n.d. Accessed July 21, 2019.
https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/08/25/pakistans-population-soars-to-207m-with-2-4-growth/.
 to poor areas unachievable.11 While ecological marginalization is evident from the rapid increase
in volume of migration from rural to urban areas, this has resulted in significant increase in
slums. The slums, true manifestation of ecological marginalized community, are supplied with
contaminated water both for drinking and sanitation.

The impacts are vast and long lasting; the scarcity of water can be directly linked to conflict.
Water scarcity is leading to increase in conflict between individuals as well as federating units.
The group identity conflict is expected to rise due to mass migration of coastal communities to
urban. The disappearance of fisheries and mangroves forest is induced by water scarcity as less
amount of water flow downstream. Thus the assumption is vindicated that the resource capture
and ecological marginalization induced by scarce resources leads to conflict.

Water crisis and conflicts at sub national level

Water crisis and violent conflicts are directly interlinked; however, conflicts induced by water
crisis are higher at domestic level than interstate.12 Though, water crisis haven’t led to any
international conflict but it has caused tensions among states such as on river Nile between Egypt
and Ethiopia; moreover, river Indus and Ganges have created among south Asian countries. The
conflicts at domestic level threaten both internal as well as regional security. The nexus between
violent conflict and water can be classified in three ways: Water scarcity spurs inadequate access
to both quality and quantity which creates a direct competition between users and uses which
could lead to violent conflict.13 Secondly, water crisis induces migration; scarcity of water has
rendered fertile land useless.14 Subsequently people working in agriculture sector are moving to

11

http://www.supremecourt.gov.pk/web/user_files/File/Enquiry_final_Report_06_03_2017.pdf
12
Wolf, A. “Water and Human Security.” AVISO: An Information Bulletin on Global
Environmental Change and Human Security. Bulletin #3, June 1999.

Kramer, Annika: Water and conflict (Policy briefing for USAID). Berlin, Bogor, Washington,
13

DC 2004
14
Mohsan, Dr Muhammad. “Water Scarcity: A Disastrous Impact on Agriculture.” Technology Times
(blog), September 18, 2018. https://www.technologytimes.pk/water-scarcity-impact-agriculture/.
 cities. Tension between local and incoming migrants in urban areas is generated. Thirdly, water
mismanagement can also lead to conflict. Farsighted and effective water management requires
institutional capacity and relevant as well as reliable socioeconomic data. These conflicts arising
from water crisis are prevalent across the globe; the Third world countries, especially, are
plagued with hydro conflicts arising from water mismanagement.

The conflicts triggered by water crisis in Pakistan are diverse ranging from micro scale to
national level. At the local level, the conflict due to water crisis is evident in urban areas such as
Karachi; similarly, the rural areas of Punjab have witnessed conflict over irrigation water. The
case study of Karachi is classic example of nexus between water scarcity and conflict. According
to Global environmental change report Karachi is ranked sixth most water stressed city.15
Pakistan largest city, Karachi, is plagued with water problems. Karachi water shortage has
reached to 700MGD.16 The disparity in access to water has created a dissension among lower
stratum of society. These apprehensions are directly translated into conflict as in form of violent
protest in Karachi. For instance, a violent protest in 2001 resulted in mass detention of protestors
and death. Similarly, during 2012 protest over water shortage led to burning of property and
damage to infrastructure.17 Apart from urban conflicts at micro level, the rural parts of Pakistan,
especially, Punjab is exposed to the scourge of water crisis. The micro level conflict in provinces
is evident in form of conflict over irrigation water. Irrigation water conflict at divisional level
remains a concern as demand of water has increased due increase in land for cultivation and
excessive use of hybrid varieties which require more water. The existing water distribution is
managed through Canal and Drainage Act of 1873, which enable irrigation department to look
after concerns of small farmers and manage their conflict with very less amount of input from
police and judiciary. The overemphasis on irrigation department, while ignoring police and
judiciary to sort out conflict has placed smaller farmers at the receiving end. The distribution

15
“Water on an Urban Planet: Urbanization and the Reach of Urban Water Infrastructure |
Elsevier Enhanced Reader.”

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1862409/1-major-water-crisis-feared-karachi/
16

17
Young, William J., Arif Anwar, Tousif Bhatti, Edoardo Borgomeo, Stephen Davies,
William R. Garthwaite III, E. Michael Gilmont, et al. Pakistan: Getting More from Water. World
Bank, 2019.
 mechanism is corrupt as influential landowners resort to out-of-turn water taking known as
Warashikni. Warashikni is the most common way of water theft in rural Punjab. This has created
a great resentment among poor farmers. As the intensity of water crisis increases the contention
over water is expected to increase.18 The fighting among tribes in rural Punjab for water
irrigation has spiked.

Nature of conflict at provincial level

At sub national level, Water scarcity has posed a significant threat to federation. Water conflict
among federating units are more prominent and worrisome. The roots of water conflicts goes
back to pre partition era; in 1940,19 Sindh complained against Punjab proposed projects
perceiving it would curtail water flowing towards Sindh. The water conflict lingered on and
created tension among provinces. Ultimately, the issues were settled through 1991 Water Accord
known as water apportionment accord. Though the water accord remains intact, yet tensions
among provinces persisted and often end in protest at national assembly incited by ethno
nationalist elements as well as the protest at public level especially over Kalabagh issue. The
apprehensions of lower riparian, i.e., Sindh over water is more severe. Opposition from Sindh as
well as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has halted any progress on Kalabagh dam. Sindh province wants
downstream flow of 10 MAF at minimum to cease water intrusion of sea water. Moreover, Sindh
has concerns over link canals, particularly over Chashma-Jehlum and Trimmu-Panjnad link
canals, which draw water from western rivers and dump it in eastern zone to provide water to
eastern portion particularly.20

Sindh demands that operation of link canals must be carried with the permission of Sindh chief
minister rather than Punjab-dominated Indus river system authority. Yet another concern of
Sindh government is the 1991 Water Accord; Sindh argues that Punjab early filling of dams

18
Daanish Mustafa; Giovanna Gioli; Milan Karner; Imran Khan. “Contested Waters:
Subnational Scale Water Conflict in Pakistan.” United States Institute of Peace, 2017.
19
Mustafa, Daanish. “Hydropolitics in Pakistan’s Indus Basin,” n.d., 8.

20
Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, ed. Inter-Provincial
Water Issues in Pakistan. Background Paper (Draft). Islamabad: Pakistan Institute of Legislative
Development and Transparency, 2011.
 creates water shortage for Sindh during Kharif season. Similarly, Sindhi nationalist leadership
has the notion in their mind that water accord of 1991 was developed out of Indus water treaty on
the expense of lower riparian Sindh.

Yet another discord among provinces over water is between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
The nationalist parties are strict adversaries of Kalabagh dam. The opposition of nationalist
elements rest upon the concern that Kalabagh Dam would lead to water logging issues in the
adjacent areas of proposed reservoir.21 On the other hand, Balochistan laments that they doesn’t
get their due share of water under water accord 1991 through North West canal for their
irrigation.

It is pertinent to note those existing crises are exacerbated due to lack of true federal and
democratic institutions to alleviate interprovincial and ethno national concerns. It is rightly said
that water crisis is putting more strain on existing water mechanism and interprovincial dispute
which could damage already weak federalism. The concerns of interprovincial water disputes
ultimately pose a direct threat to national security of Pakistan by undermining its federalism, and
threatening public and social order.

Water Conflict at National level

Water conflict between India and Pakistan started immediately after partition of Indian
subcontinent. The issues lingered on until Indus Water Treaty, mediated by World Bank, was
signed in 1960. The water distribution treaty has survived three major war and tension on many
instances. However, the threats to IWT are more severe than last century. The dynamics of
politics have changed in 21st century; the nature of adversity has changed in the nuclear era.
Instead of direct confrontation both states are trying to subvert each other interest through
nontraditional threats. The new security paradigm of South Asia has threatened IWT
significantly. There is a formidable threat that India may cease flow of Pakistani water in case of
tension between both states. New Delhi often retaliated by threatening to cut Pakistani water
during crisis.22 In past, this pattern was evident in Indian policy both after Pulwama Attack and
Uri attack .The stoppage of water will seriously undermine Pakistan national security as the agro

21
Khalid, Iram, and Ishrat Begum. “Hydro Politics in Pakistan: Perceptions and
Misperceptions.” South Asian Studies, n.d., 17.
 based economy of Pakistan will be in perils. Pakistan respond to the threat in own terms and
considered that any move by Indian to cease Pakistani water as an act of aggression.23

India is pursuing its hydro projects to divert Pakistani water for power generation as well as
irrigation purpose. India has started construction over Jehlum, Chanab and Neelum rivers within
Indian occupied Kashmir24. Pakistan has serious apprehension over construction of Ratle,
Baglihar and Wullar barrage. The proposed projects will cease the flow of water to Pakistan;
furthermore, during crisis India would have leverage to stop water to a great instance. The
projects initiated by India will put Pakistan irrigation system in danger as well as reduce water
availability for other uses. The India Pakistan water dispute is a credible threat to national
security of Pakistan. Furthermore, the contention among two states could possibly trigger a
nuclear war in the region. It is highly likely that water crisis triggered by hydro politics will lead
to a full scale war and threatened the security of both regional actors.

Frail Economy

Economy is as essential element of national security as any other element; the current debate of
national security includes threats of weak economy. Among key challenges to South Asian
economy, the water crisis is on the top of list. The world economic forum has termed the water
crisis the biggest challenge for Pakistan economy.25

Pakistan having agro based economy depends heavily on water. Agriculture contributes 18.9
percent of GDP and employs 42.3 percent of total labor.26 Water shortage was experienced
during monsoon and winter season.27 Water scarcity contributed in significant decrease in
agricultural output. The most affected crops are cash crop such as cotton. The agriculture related

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/25/are-india-and-pakistan-on-the-verge-of-a-water-war-
22

pulwama-kasmir-ravi-indus/
23
https://www.dawn.com/news/1286623
24
Qureshi, Waseem Ahmad. “Water as a Human Right: A Case Study of the Pakistan-India
Water Conflict.” Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs 5, no. 2 (2017): 25.
25
World Economic Forum. "Regional Risks For Doing Business." Geneva, 2018.
26
Govt. of Pakistan. "Economic Survey of Pakistan 2017-2O18." Finance division, Islamabad,
pp.211
 industries, for instance, textile, sugarcane and food industries have to bear the implication of
reduced output induced by water shortages. Yet another impact of water crisis on economy is
energy shortage. According to power division the share of hydroelectricity has decreased in last
five year, the obvious reason is decrease in water flow of major rivers.28 During winter 2018 the
indent of Mangla dam was declared zero by IRSA thus reducing power generation to nil.29

It is obvious that the economic cost of water crisis is huge for Pakistan. These economic losses
eventually have significant implication on security of Pakistan. The frail economy of Pakistan
has made country dependent on both external and internal lenders; this has rendered economic
security and government capacity to deliver weak.30 The weakness of economy is translated into
weak security; ultimately sovereignty breached by international institutions and MNCs.

Food insecurity

Food security and national security has a strong correlation; food insecurity leads to social
unrest. The case study of Middle East crisis manifests a strong relationship between food
security- both physical and economical access to food- with national security. During 2008 to
2010 the prices of food in Egypt rose 37 percent which resulted in mass protest; the Tahrir
square become an epicenter of mass protest. The slogan was bread, freedom and social justice.31
The food insecurity in Pakistan has also emerged as a formidable challenge for national security.
Pakistan despite having a large tract of fertile land has to face challenges of food insecurity. The
studies reveal that 60 percent of population still faces food insecurity.32 90 percent of Pakistan
27
“Low Rainfall Causes Water Shortage | The Express Tribune.” Accessed July 22, 2019.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1816703/1-country-faces-water-scarcity-ahead-rabi-sowing/.

28
Govt. of Pakistan. "Economic Survey of Pakistan 2017-2O18." Finance division, Islamabad,
pp.211.
29
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365897
30
Khokhar, Noel Israel. “PERSPECTIVES ON PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY.”
ISSRA, 2015, 20.
31
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/food-security-is-national_b_5540015
32
Mahbub ul Haq Human Development Center. "Food Security in Pakistan." Policy brief No.2,
2015.
water is used for agriculture, it is expected that within ten years the farmers of Indus basin won’t
able to grow water intensive crops because of water scarcity. In 2018 Pakistan faced severe water
shortages before kharif crops sowing period.33 The shortages delayed sowing of important crops.
On the national scale the wheat production for year 2017-18 decreased by 4.4 percent mainly due
to water shortages and climate factor.34 The worst affectees are lower riparian; according to
Sindh agriculture department the crops production decreased significantly due to water
shortages. The cotton yield decreased by 28 percent, while sugarcane and paddy both dropped by
17. The underlying reason stated by official was lack of water.35 Yet another challenge posed by
water crisis is inundation of crop land by salty water in coastal areas; ultimately fertile land is
rendered useless and total crop output decreases. The intrusion of salty water is attributed to
decrease of water flow downstream. The food security has dire consequences for peace and
stability of any society; the repercussion of food insecurity exacerbated by water crisis has social
implication for society. There is obvious connection between food insecurity and conflict. The
case study Dera Bugti, the second most food insecure division of Pakistan, has become a home to
Anti-Islamabad insurgency. The apprehension of local people is exploited by tribal leaders and
unrest is created.36 Similarly, FATA the hotbed of militancy has obvious relationship with food
insecurity; shrine and Madrassah attract food insecure people who are exploited by terrorist
groups. It is pertinent to note that food insecurity is not directly translated into militancy;
however, it is obvious that food insecure people are exploited by insurgents for their vested
interest. The correlation between food insecurity and social unrest is dormant however it may
fully explode if circumstances remain unaddressed. The issues may explode into full pledged
crisis as witnessed in Egypt and Syria.

Health crisis
33
https://www.dawn.com/news/1396826/severe-water-shortage-ahead-kharif-crops-likely-to-
suffer

Govt of pakistan. "Economic Survey of Pakistan 2017-2O18." Finance division, Islamabad,

34

pp.17.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/392694-agriculture-sector-has-endured-billions-in-losses-
35

due-to-water-shortage

Kugelman, Michael, and Robert M. Hathaway, . Hunger Pains : Pakistan’s Food Insecurity.
36

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2010

 The essential component of water crisis is the quality of water. The quality of water is directly
related to health security. In Pakistan disposal of waste products of homes and affluent from
industries are directly dumped into rivers. Similarly, intense usage of agrochemical is washed
away by rain water into water streams. The contaminated water is used for crops and household.
Around 16 million people in Pakistan are without access to safe drinking water and placing it
among top 10 countries having most people who lack access to safe water.37 The lack of access
to safe drinking has resulted in water borne diseases. The diarrheal disease alone kills 39000
children under the age of 5 every year; among the deaths 88 percent is attributed to inadequate
sanitation as water is either unavailable or contaminated.38 Studies support that a clear nexus
between health crisis and security. The health crisis induced by water crisis has emerged as
nontraditional threat. Health challenges in form of either infectious or biohazards represents an
extraordinary form a security threat which need a planned and proper response39.

CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF NEXUS BETWEEN WATER CRISIS AND

NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN

Water crisis has significant impact on socioeconomic development of a state. Water crisis is
directly related to national security; it could trigger violent conflicts, food insecurity, health crisis
and above all interstate dispute which ultimately threaten federation. In Pakistan, the impacts of
water crisis are evident in every sector. The foremost implications of water crisis are at federal
level in Pakistan is tension among federating units over distribution of.40 The tension is expected
to increase if the water scarcity continues to increase. This could result in challenging the
structure of state. The water crisis has serious impact on the civil order; large scale migration is
induced by water scarcity perhaps the most worrisome problem which could “easily trigger

World Health Organization/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and
37

Sanitation (2015)
38
. (World Health Organization Global Health Observation Data. Available at
http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.ghe1002015-pak?lang=en).
39
Lo Yuk-ping, C., and N. Thomas. “How Is Health a Security Issue? Politics, Responses
and Issues.” Health Policy and Planning 25, no. 6 (November 1, 2010): 447–53.
40
Wasim, Muhammad. "Federalism in Pakistan." Forum of Federations, 2010.
 major security concern and spike regional tensions”.41 This immigration crisis is expected to rise
in Pakistan due to expected water shortage in Indus Basin; prompting migration from rural to
urban areas. Furthermore, fishing communities from coastal areas to urban centre as fishing
industry is expected to die due to inadequate down stream flow. The burden on main cities would
increase which could lead to insufficient opportunity for incoming immigrants leading to
conflicts. The nontraditional threats such as food insecurity, economy and heath crisis are
festered by water scarcity. Food security is an essential aspect of national security; it not only
leads to social conflicts but also retards national development. Similarly, health and economic
crisis triggered by water crisis undermine national security. The analysis of national security in
security paradigm which includes non military aspects vindicates that Pakistan national security
is significantly threatened by water crisis.

Though the crisis of national security set off by water crisis are dormant, water crisis in near
future will exert significant impact on national security. The conflict of Middle East is
manifestation of crisis emerged from food and water crisis. The individuals as well as society
shouldn’t be complacent with dormant situation; the crisis is brewing beneath the surface. The
existing situation warrants serious efforts else the crisis would have serious implication for state
in form of civil war.

41
Campbell, Kurt M, Jay Gulledge, J R McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, Julianne Smith,
Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix. “The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change,” n.d., 124.