DOI 10.

1515/reveh-2014-0020      Rev Environ Health 2014; 29(1-2): 71–77

Mumtaz Hussain* and Saniea Mumtaz

Climate change and managing water crisis:

Pakistan’s perspective
Abstract: Climate change is a global phenomenon mani- watersheds/catchments/water bodies, optimum exploi-
fested mainly through global warming. The International tation of present sources, development of new sources,
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported its negative water conservation, adequate drainage, efficient design
consequences on natural resources, anthropogenic activi- of water storage, conveyance, distribution and supply sys-
ties, and natural disasters. The El Nino and La Nina have tems, utilization of waste water, and regulation of water
affected hydrologic regimes and ecosystems. It has been quality.
observed that the average temperature in 1995 was 0.4°C
higher than that in 1895. By the end of the 21st century, Keywords: anthropogenic activities; climate change; eco-
10% of the area of Bangladesh is likely to be submerged degradation of watersheds; ecosystems; extreme events;
by the sea. Most of the islands of Pacific Ocean will dis- integrated water management plans; snow melts/thaws;
appear. A major part of Maldives will be submerged. The water scarcity.
sea level is expected to rise by 30–150 cm. Extreme events
such as floods, cyclones, tsunamis, and droughts have
*Corresponding author: Mumtaz Hussain, Society for
become regular phenomena in many parts of the world. Conservation of Environment and Sustainable Development,
Other adverse impacts are proliferation of water-borne E-mail: [email protected]
diseases, sea water intrusion, salinization of coastal Saniea Mumtaz: Society for Conservation of Environment and
areas, loss of biodiversity, eco-degradation of watersheds Sustainable Development
and global glacial decline, and haphazard snow melts/
thaws. In turn, these factors have serious effect on water
resources. Pakistan is confronting similar climate change. Introduction
Meteorological data reveal that winter temperatures are
rising and summers are getting cooler. Temperature is
Pakistan’s relief/topography
expected to increase by 0.9°C and 1.5°C by years 2020
and 2050, respectively. Water resources in Pakistan are
Pakistan is blessed with lofty peaks, snow-clad moun-
affected by climate change as it impacts the behavior of
tains, high plateaus, fertile plains, vast sandy deserts,
glaciers, rainfall patterns, greenhouse gas emissions,
windy coastal areas, and productive deltaic regions. It
recurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts.
has a total area of 803,940 sq km. It is divided into eight
Severe floods have occurred in the years 1950, 1956, 1957,
agro-ecological zones. It is situated in arid, semiarid and
1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Pakistan
hyperarid zones.
has faced the worst-ever droughts during the period from
A large part (59.3%) of Pakistan is occupied by arid
1998 to 2004. Pakistan has surface water potential of 140
rangelands. These are Thal, Kohistan, Dera Ghazi Khan,
million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of
Cholistan, Thar, Tharparkar, and Western Balochistan.
56 MAF. It is one of the most water-stressed countries in
Annual rainfall is  < 200 mm. Out of these areas, Western
the world. The per capita annual availability of water has
Balochistan does not receive monsoon rains.
reduced from 5140  m3 in 1950 to 1000  m3 now. It is fast
approaching towards water scarcity. To minimize adverse
impacts of climate change on the water crisis in Pakistan, River basins
the preparation of integrated national, provincial, and
local level master plans encompassing technical, social, Indus River system covers 70% of the total river basin area.
environmental, administrative, and financial considera- It is fed by the mighty Indus River and its tributaries. It was
tions is necessary. It is imperative to implement two simul- home to the famous Indus Civilization. The Indus River
taneous approaches of adaptation (living with climate system consists of three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and
change) and mitigation (addressing negativities of climate Chenab) and three eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi).
change). Salient features are integrated management of The Indus River Basin sustains a population of 50 million.

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72      Hussain and Mumtaz: Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan’s perspective

It includes an area of 170,000 sq km an approximate of 2020 and 2050, respectively. Water resources in Pakistan
75% of agricultural land is irrigated. are affected by climate change as it impacts the behavior of
The Kharan closed basin and the Makran coastal glaciers, rainfall patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, and
basin occupy 15% each of the area. recurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts.
Severe floods have occurred in the years 1950, 1956, 1957,
1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Pakistan
Pakistan’s coast
has faced the worst-ever droughts during the period from
1998 to 2004.
Coastal belt
Pakistan’s coastline is about 990 km long comprising the
Sindh and Makran coasts. Its exclusive economic zone
Pakistan’s aquatic resources
extends to 200 nautical miles from the coast which meas-
ures to 110,000 sq nautical miles.
Surface water resources

Indus Delta Pakistan has surface water potential of 143 million acre
The Indus Delta is the fifth largest delta in the world. Its area feet (MAF). It provides canal withdrawal of 104 MAF.
is approximately 30,000 sq km. It is triangular in shape. The water system consists of three reservoirs (Tarbela,
Its length and width are 240 and 220 km, respectively. Mangla, and Chasma), nine barrages, 12 link canals, two
­Mudflats, creeks, marshes, water bodies, waterlogged, and syphons, 43 canal commands and 1.621 million km long
saline patches are found in the delta. Mangroves cover an water courses.
area of 333,333 ha.

Ground water resources

Global climate change scenario
The ground water reserve is 56 MAF. Its availability is
Climate change is a global phenomenon manifested
about 48 MAF. It provides 35% of the irrigation water used.
mainly through global warming. The International Panel
Over 1  million tube wells abstract water without proper
on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported its negative con-
evaluation. The quality of ground water varies from area
sequences on natural resources, anthropogenic activi-
to area and ranges from brackish to sweet.
ties, and natural disasters. The El Nino and La Nina have
affected hydrologic regimes and ecosystems. The average
temperature in 1995 was 0.4°C higher than that in 1895. By
Other resources
the end of the 21st century, 10% of the area of Bangladesh is
likely to submerge into the sea. Most islands of the Pacific
Annual rainfall accounts for 25 MAF. Mostly it is erratic
Ocean will disappear. A major part of the Maldives will be
and uncertain. Springs provide 10 MAF water per annum.
submerged. The sea level is expected to rise by 30–150 cm.
This paper aims to highlight the adverse impacts of
Extreme events such as floods, cyclones, tsunamis,
climate change on hydraulic regime of Pakistan and sug-
and droughts have become regular phenomena in many
gests strategies for the looming water crisis.
parts of the world. Other adverse impacts are proliferation
of water-borne diseases, sea water intrusion, salinization
of coastal areas, loss of biodiversity, eco-degradation of
watersheds and global glacial decline, and haphazard Water crisis in Pakistan
snow melts/thaws. In turn, these factors have serious
effect on water resources.
Water consumption pattern

Climate change situation in Pakistan Sector-wise distribution of water is 95%, 2%, and 3%
for agriculture, industries, and domestic consumption,
Pakistan is confronting similar situations of climate respectively. Demand for water is likely to increase due
change. Meteorological data reveal that winter tempera- to the exponentially increasing population, rising socio-
tures are rising and summers are getting cooler. The tem- economic uplift, multiple sectoral necessities, growing
perature is expected to increase by 0.9°C and 1.5°C by years industries, and improved sanitation.

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 Hussain and Mumtaz: Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan’s perspective      73

Water scarcity bring monsoon rains. The intensity of 508  mm rainfall

per annum falls on the 9% monsoon-prone areas. Certain
Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries of the areas of Balochistan and Sindh do not receive monsoon
world. Per capita per year availability of water has reduced rains. Monsoons cause river flooding especially in River
from 5140 to 1000 m3 in the year 1950. According to water Kabul and its tributaries, River Swat, River Indus River
scarcity indicators (Table 1), it is fast approaching toward Chenab, and River Jhelum. Heavy rainfalls occur in upper
a water scarce country. reaches of river catchments. Frequency of floods is one in
4–5 years.

Existing shortfall of water

Onslaught of droughts
Present shortfall of water is about 20 MAF which is pro-
Droughts have prevailed in Pakistan since independence
jected to rise to 31 MAF by the 2025. It is attributed to
(1947) with varying degrees and frequencies. Increasing
policy failures, ill-conceived plans, improperly structured
temperatures and decreasing precipitation have pressur-
institutions, weak legislation, and lack of political will.
ized the balance between the supply and demand of water.
It has been experiencing the meteorological, hydrological
and agricultural droughts. The worst-ever drought hap-
Impact of climate change in pened during the period from 1998 to 2004. This affected

Pakistan the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh and certain rain-

fed areas of the Punjab.

Climate change, environment, and water resources are

inextricably linked together. Ongoing climate change has Destruction of deltaic regions
an impact on physical, biological, and socio-economic
environments as detailed below. The Indus delta has fragile ecosystems. Sufficient inflow
of river flow is not available for a sustained environment.
Severe climate changes are affecting the flora and fauna.
Impact on the physical environment
The mangroves are threatened. Fishery is decreasing
rapidly which is affecting the livelihood of local fishermen.
Extreme events

Recurrence of floods Enhanced desertification

The Indus basin undergoes heavy flooding during the
monsoon season. The eastern rivers (Ravi and Sutlej) About 76% of the area is affected by wind and water
also receive flood overflows from India. Salient causes erosion. Fertile top soil is heavily eroded. Soil productivity
of the floods are cyclonic disturbances, monsoons, and has reduced significantly resulting in lower agricultural
break monsoons. In addition, glacial retreat, permafrost yields. Its dry lands need to be protected against desertifi-
thawing, and glacial lake outbursts have direct bearing cation. Aquaculture has drastically shrunk.
on the quantum and frequency of floods. The snow cover
melts are fast resulting in massive overflow of rivers and
Variations in rainfall
inundation of adjoining lands due to rising temperatures.
The topographic layout of the country has a direct
The rainfall pattern has now changed. Certain parts of the
effect on the precipitation pattern. North-easterly winds
country are receiving more rainfall and other parts lesser
than previous records. Even the monsoon rains are con-
Table 1 Water scarcity indicators.
fronting adverse effects.

Water availability (m3/capita/year)  Status

Rise in sea level
 < 1700  Water stress
 < 1000  Water scarcity Pakistan has been facing the phenomenon of climatic
 < 500  Water famine
change for the last few decades. The meteorological data
Source: Falkenmark et al., 1989. (196–1990) reveals that it is facing increasing temperatures

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74      Hussain and Mumtaz: Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan’s perspective

and cooling during winter and summer seasons, respec- Impact on fauna
tively. The intensity and extent of rainy spells are reducing The denudation of the area is forcing many species of
and those of dry periods are on the increase. Temperatures birds and animals to migrate elsewhere. Under the hostile
are expected to increase by 0.9oC and 1.8oC by 2020 and weather, certain wildlife species are likely to become extinct.
2050, respectively. Sea level is projected to rise by 20 cm
and 30 cm by 2020 and 2050, respectively.
Impact on food production and food wastage

Accelerated glacier movement

Prevalent climate change has affected the quality as well
as the quantity of food products. Because of this global
Pakistan has 1214 small and large glaciers. The largest is
phenomenon, sowing, maturity, yield, resistance/adjust-
Siachin Glacier which is about 73 km long. The experts
ment with climate change, etc., have been affected.
opine that glacial melt is declining whereas the winter
Temperature variations have affected food storage,
snowfalls are increasing. This phenomenon is the oppo-
food preparation, and eating habits. Consequently food
site of the global warming predictions in other parts of the
wastages/losses are increasing.
world.

Damage to livestock
Damage to natural habitats/landscapes

Livestock and animals are seriously affected by climatic

Natural resources are being consumed nonjudiciously.
upheavals. They encounter many fatal diseases. Pets also
Landscapes are exposed through loss of vegetative cover.
suffer from serious ailments, and under serious condi-
Natural habitats are getting destroyed under the cover of
tions causes their deaths.
so-called development. This is one of the main causes of
Livestock numbers have suffered due to nonavail-
climate change.
ability of feed, fodder, water, and rangelands. Accord-
ingly, production levels of milk and meat have reached an
all time low. A large number of livestock have has to be
Greenhouse gases emissions
moved to safer locations.

The emission of greenhouse gases has increased tremen-

dously from natural resources. The gases are generated
Socio-economic impacts
from lakes, marshes, and other water bodies. Eutrophi-
cation and biodegradation of organic matter are the
Deterioration of social coherence and values
processes leading towards addition of gases into the
atmosphere. The gases are a major cause of warming.
Family structure is disrupted because young people leave
to earn their livelihood elsewhere leaving behind the chil-
dren, women, and the elderly to face the harshness of
Impact on biological environment
these extreme events.

Loss of biodiversity

Reduced business activities

On account of climatic disturbances, many species of flora
and fauna are migrating to other places or are disappear-
Small and medium businesses are seriously affected.
ing. Also migratory birds face difficulty in finding favora-
Many businessmen relocate to more profitable areas.
ble temporary abodes and flying routes especially those
arriving from Siberia and the central independent states.

Agricultural losses
Impact on flora
Due to the lesser availability of water when required, the Irrigated agriculture is confronting reduced cultivated
survival of plants is jeopardized. Many plant species have areas, low-quality produce, minimum yields, frequent
perished. incidences of disease, swelling cost of inputs, disappearing

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 Hussain and Mumtaz: Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan’s perspective      75

farm forestry, and farmers’ diminishing interest in future Two-pronged strategy

agriculture.
To minimize the water situation, it is imperative to imple-
ment two simultaneous approaches of adaptation (living
Collapse of civic infrastructure with climate change) and mitigation (addressing the neg-
ativities of climate change).
Under the adverse impacts of climate change and espe-
cially in wake of extreme events, civic facilities, water
supply, irrigation and sanitation systems, and road net- Mitigation strategies
works are damaged resulting in poor health and educa-
tional services. In view of the above discussion, mitigation strategies are
suggested for minimizing the water scarcity scenario as
below.
Health degradation

Proliferation of diseases Integrated management of watersheds/catchments

Those affected by climate change suffer from many Efficient water systems depend on smooth inflows
deadly diseases. They face mental disorders, stresses, from well-managed watersheds/catchments. Integrated
and ­anxieties. They feel isolated and cut off from the rest approaches for the management of watersheds/catchments
of world. They feel strongly that the climatic vagaries have should be adopted by seeking the active participation of all
put them at the mercy of nature with little support from stakeholders. This is essential because food sources for
others. ­Personal hygiene becomes neglected. D ­ iarrheas millions of people depend on natural resources from these
and gastroenteritis become widely prevalent. Exhaus- watershed/catchments. Adverse impact of climate change
tion, ­desiccation, and dehydration become the order of on aquatic potential can be reduced by growing more trees,
the day. minimizing grazing, and structural measures.

Children’s health Watershed management authority

Adverse impacts of climate change on the health of A watershed management authority (WMA) should be
­children are glaring as they are more exposed to environ- established at a national level for the coordination of rel-
mental vagariess, as they spend more time outside the evant activities. It should formulate policy and guidelines
house. for the stakeholders’ implementation. The ultimate aim
of WMA is to ensure that watersheds/catchments provide
pollution free and regular flow of water under prevailing
climate change.
Strategies for minimizing the impact
of climate change on water potential Optimum exploitation of present water resources

Present water resources are threatened because of over

General
exploitation, pollution, and silting/sedimentation. This
trend needs to be arrested. This natural resource should
Integrated approach
be optimally utilized and future requirements should be
kept in view.
An integrated approach is essential for the success of a
strategy from inception to final completion. This approach
seeks active participation of all stakeholders including Development of new water sources
public and private sectors, relevant professionals, media,
civil society, NGOs, and local communities with optimum Detailed investigations of geological formations will be done
technical and financial backup. to discover new surface and underground water sources.

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76      Hussain and Mumtaz: Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan’s perspective

Water conservation Utilization of waste water

There is urgency to ensure minimum water loss in the Possible applications of treated waste water
whole system. All water uses including agriculture, indus- It is encouraging to note that treated waste water can be
try, and domestic use need to be revisited and made effi- used for many purposes such as hydroponics, recharging
cient and economical. Economical water use on the part of of aquifers, aquaculture, landscape watering, and live-
the consumers entails education concering water use and stock consumption. This will lead to decreased pressure
at the same time the supplying agencies should regulate on fresh water supply.
the system through metering, levying water charges, and
punishing those who abuse the system.
Effluent treatment
Municipal and industrial effluents should not be allowed
Adequate drainage
to leave the premises where they originated without prior
treatment. Houses should have septic tanks for the treat-
Storm water drainage and sewage management systems
ment of waste water. Industries should have individual or
should be laid separately. This is required so that storm
combined treatment plants.
water drainage systems are able to absorb abnormal rains
and hailstorms. Similarly, agricultural drainage should be
properly managed.
Waste water standards for agriculture
It is incumbent that waste water is used for irrigation
Efficient design of water storage, conveyance,
purpose after the necessary treatment. This also applies
distribution, and supply systems
to home gardening, agriculture, and lawn w ­ atering.
­Effluents discharge standards of waste water to be used
The entire water supply system should be properly designed
for agricultural purposes are shown in Table 2.
on the basis of terrain conditions, climatology and weather
information, available technologies and equipment, and
consumer requirements. The system should have inbuilt
safety and protection against extreme events. Regulation of water quality
There is urgent need to upgrade existing water stor-
ages (small and large) structures such as barrages/head Under the influence of extreme events and anthropogenic
works, main canals, distributaries, and water courses. activities, water resources are usually polluted. Concerned
This will improve supplies. Also, it will curb water theft authorities should enforce the quality standards of the
and losses. WHO, UNEP, national and local government.

Table 2 Waste water standards for agriculture.

Reuse methods   BOD mg/L  Escherichia coli MPN/100 mLb

Irrigation of trees, cotton, and other nonedible crops    < 60   < 50,000

Irrigation of citrus fruit, trees, fodder crops, and nuts    < 45   < 10,000
Irrigation of deciduous fruit, treesc, sugarcane, cooked vegetables, and sport fields   < 35   < 1000
Discharge to a receiving water coursed    < 25   < 5000
Unrestricted crop irrigation including parks and lawns    < 25   < 100

Source: Khurshid and Chughtai, 1996.

a
From Duncan Mara.
b
These concentrations should not exceed in 80% of samples.
c
Irrigation should stop 2 weeks before picking and no fruit should be picked from the ground.
d
Depends on dilution available, effluent should contain  < 105 algal cells/mL.

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 Hussain and Mumtaz: Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan’s perspective      77

Recommendations spirit by harnessing possible human and material

resources from government departments.
1. Research centers should be established at national 5. Satellite data should be used for identification and
levels in the Indus basin, the desert, Balochistan, management of extreme events.
and southern Punjab areas for carrying out research 6. The media should be extensively utilized for raising
work on multifarious aspects of ongoing and future mass awareness about climate change and water
climate change and their impacts on the prevailing discipline.
water situation. 7. There is mounting necessity for master planning
2. The environmental management of the water crisis due to population growth, size of cities/towns and
should be undertaken on a war footing with the active optimal utilization of natural resources (including
involvement of all the relevant stakeholders. water) from community to national levels, demanding
3. Endeavors should be made to have input from imaginative, collaborative, multidimensional and
international experts for the mitigation of the multisectoral action.
negative impact of climate change and environmental
disorders against the backdrop of current water crisis.
4. Environmental management of climate change is
a national issue and should be dealt with the same Received January 16, 2014; accepted January 16, 2014

References
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resources in South Asia: vulnerability and adaptation. 2005. impacts Studies Centre, 2002.
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agriculture in Pakistan. Proceedings of Pakistan Engineering Session 2004.
Congress 2004;69. 6. The Environ Monitor. World Water Day, Water and Culture, 2006.
3. Hussain M. Environmental degradation: realities and remedies. 7. The Environ Monitor. World Water Day, Coping With Water
Lahore: Ferozons (Pvt) Ltd, 1998. Scarcity, 2007.

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