FACT SHEET

CLIMATE RISK PROFILE

SRI LANKA
COUNTRY OVERVIEW
Located in the Indian Ocean, off the Southwest Coast of
India, Sri Lanka is a small island nation with a physically
diverse geography and tropical climate. With a land area
of 65,610 square kilometers (km2) and 1,340 km of
coastline, Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change. As of July 2017, the estimated
population of Sri Lanka is over 22 million, with roughly 50
percent of inhabitants living in coastal areas on the West,
South-west, and Southern coasts of the island. The
commercial Capitol of Colombo has the highest
population density with 21,000 inhabitants per km2. Sri
Lanka has made great strides in the last 20 years to
increase incomes and reduce poverty, now meeting most
Millennium Development Goals. Much of this progress
faces significant threat from the impacts of climate
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SRI LANKA
change. Primary economic drivers, including tourism,
commercial agriculture, and manufacturing are extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events and sea
level rise. In addition, deforestation, soil erosion, and loss of biodiversity also threaten to reduce the country’s
economic output. The Sri Lankan government has made great progress in improving quality of life for most of
the population, with large development projects providing piped water, electricity, and access to health
services. However, even as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita continues to climb, having reached
USD 13,000 in 2017, Sri Lanka still suffers from substantial income inequality and rural poverty. The country
has a low unemployment rate (4 percent) and much of its GDP is generated by the service industry, including
tourism, which employs 45.9 percent of the population. (1,2,3,4,5,7,9,13)

November 2018
This document was prepared under the Climate Integration Support Facility Blanket Purchase Agreement AID-OAA-E-17-0008, Order
Number AID-OAA-BC-17-00042, and is meant to provide a brief overview of climate risk issues. The key resources at the end of the
document provide more in-depth country and sectoral analysis. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID.
CLIMATE SUMMARY
The island nation of Sri Lanka possesses a hot and humid tropical climate, but with significant differences
across variations in topography. Average annual rainfall is below 1,000 millimeters (mm) in the semi-arid
Northwest, but above 5,000 mm in the central hills of the Southwest. Across the island, rainfall comes in four
distinct seasons: the Southwest monsoon season from May to September, often exceeding 3,000 mm of
precipitation in the wettest regions; a relatively dry inter-monsoon period from October to November; the
Northeast monsoon season from December to February, contributing between 200 mm and 1,200 mm of
precipitation, mostly in the wettest regions; and finally, another relatively dry inter-monsoon season from
March to April. These seasonal variations, along with topography, divide Sri Lanka into three zones: the Wet
Zone, the Intermediate Zone, and the Dry Zone. Precipitation patterns are influenced by El Niño and La Niña
conditions and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. These rains help support robust and extremely
biodiverse forests, covering over 19,500 km2 or 30% of the island, of which around 14,000 km2 are dense
forests. However, deforestation is rapidly reducing the forest cover of Sri Lanka and just one third of natural
cover remains. This loss of forest cover can contribute to erosion and landslide risk. Temperatures fluctuate
very little on an annual basis, with mean average temperatures ranging between 26°C and 28°C in coastal
areas and between 15°C and 19°C at higher altitudes above 1500 meters (m). Historically, Sri Lanka
experiences relatively moderate cyclone events, mostly in the Northern region. However, cyclone-related
storm surges and coastal erosion are already a major threat to population centers. (1,2,3,4,5,6,11,13)

HISTORICAL CLIMATE FUTURE CLIMATE

Climate trends include: Projected changes include:
• Increase in mean annual temperature of 0.2°C • Increase in mean annual temperature of
per decade between 1961 and 1990. between 0.8°C and 2°C by 2060.
• Increase in mean daytime maximum • Increase in both daily maximum and minimum
temperatures of 1°C between 1961 and 2001. temperatures of between 0.7°C and 0.8°C by
• Increase in mean nighttime minimum 2050.
temperatures of 0.7°C between 1961 and 2001. • Projections of change in precipitation vary, with
• Decrease in island-wide mean annual some predicting decreases and some increases,
precipitation of 144 mm between 1961 and 1990. but generally indicate an increase in variability
• Increase in frequency and intensity of floods. and extreme events.
• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts. • Increase in cyclone frequency and intensity.
• Uncertain rates of sea level rise around Sri • Increased frequency and severity of floods,
Lanka, specifically, but accelerated rates across drought incidence, and landslides.
Asia with increases of 3.1 mm per year from • Total sea level rise of between 0.2 and 0.6
1993 – 2003, compared to 1.7 mm to 2.4 mm per meters by mid-century, compared to 1971-2010
year for the 20th century. (2,3,5,7,9) levels. (2,3,5,7,9)

SECTOR IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES

COASTAL ZONES AND ECOSYSTEMS Climate Stressors and Climate Risks
With 1,340 km of coastline and 25 percent of the COASTAL ZONES & ECOSYSTEMS
population living in areas vulnerable to sea level rise Stressors Risks
(within 1 km of the coast), Sri Lanka’s coastal zones Shoreline erosion
face serious threat from sea-level rise caused by Sea level rise Saltwater intrusion into aquifers
climate change, which could amplify existing hazards Increased storm and agricultural areas
from tsunamis and cyclones. Being a small island surge Loss of ocean and near inland
nation with rich and numerous marine and coastal Increased sea- biodiversity
ecosystems, inhabitants of Sri Lankan coastlines rely surface Coral bleaching
heavily on fisheries, with nearly a quarter of a million temperatures
Damage to coastal infrastructure
families making their living on coastal and offshore Ocean
fishing. Coastal ecosystems and livelihoods that acidification Economic loss
depend on them are under direct threat from cyclones, Population displacement

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sea level rise, sea surface temperature rise, and ocean acidification. If climate conditions fulfill currently
predicted trends, as listed in the stressors and risks table for this section, many coastal livelihood activities
will become more difficult and place a larger proportion of the population under increased economic stress.
Furthermore, these same changes in climate conditions will have an adverse effect on the tourism industry,
which is closely related to, and largely dependent on, coastal and marine biodiversity and recreation. Rising
sea levels and storm surges are expected to erode shorelines, degrade the health of coastal ecosystems,
and potentially displace coastal populations. Mangroves and other forms of coastal vegetation offer
protection and reduce vulnerability to tsunamis and cyclones, but less than one-third of the island is
protected in this way and these areas are under pressure from development. By causing sea-level to rise,
climate change could reduce the protection from coastal vegetation by 37 percent. Local authorities have
recognized the benefits of coastal vegetation, though additional efforts to restore vegetation and harden
unprotected coastlines may be needed. (15,16) Additionally, tourism activities are inherently vulnerable to
adverse environmental conditions brought on by drought, floods, and cyclones. While tourism has
traditionally been a healthy industry, these climate stressors will increasingly threaten the ability to provide
visitors with a safe and attractive destination. Beyond the beach, near-coastal areas also include fertile strips
of land that are critical for production of rice and coconuts, two major exports and nutritional staples. These
areas are also under threat from saltwater intrusion and extreme weather events, particularly drought, as
many coastal areas already receive the least precipitation on the island. Near-coastal areas are also
vulnerable to flooding, as surplus water from the wet zone diverted to these plains for irrigation often exceeds
what the landscape can handle. The manufacturing and agricultural sectors rely upon onshore and offshore
infrastructure to export goods. Damage to these systems has the potential to reduce economic output across
the Sri Lankan economy. (1,2,3,5,6,7,13)

WATER RESOURCES
Availability, distribution, and use of water for agriculture, human consumption, energy generation, and
industry are all directly dependent on climate Climate Stressors and Climate Risks
conditions. Water availability is a critical concern, WATER RESOURCES
particularly for drinking water. Climate change threatens Stressors Risks
both surface water and groundwater sources upon
Damage to drinking and storm
which Sri Lankans depend for domestic use. For water infrastructure
example, more frequent and severe flooding can Increased
evapotranspiration Saltwater intrusion into
increase risk of water and vector-borne illness and aquifers and cropland
make it more difficult to maintain sanitary living Sea level rise
Reduced water availability for
conditions. Increased and worsening droughts, along
agriculture
with salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers, are Increased drought
expected to seriously deplete freshwater availability. frequency and Decreased or unpredictable
Increased economic activity is already leading to a high duration hydropower generation
level of groundwater extraction and pollution of existing Difficulty maintaining
Increased storm
resources. High altitude regions in the central part of frequency and sanitation systems and
the island intercept moisture rich monsoonal winds, intensity practices
forming 103 distinct natural river basins across the Increased adverse health
island and 94 smaller coastal basins. The country’s wet effects
zone reliably receives plentiful rainfall, while the
intermediate and dry zones receive little rainfall and rely on both natural and artificial distribution of water
from the wet zone. Although the total amount of rainfall the island receives is enough to meet domestic and
environmental requirements, this uneven distribution of water is problematic, with much of the dry zone
experiencing months of drought, while the surface water that flows from the wet zone is artificially discharged
into lowlands, often causing flooding and waterlogging. Sri Lanka generates 41% of its electricity via
hydroelectric plants. Flood conditions have the potential to worsen, as hydroelectric systems are required to
discharge increasing volumes of wet zone rainfall from overburdened reservoir structures. Hydroelectric
infrastructure is also vulnerable to drought conditions, as they are designed to utilize historical levels of
rainfall and could underproduce during prolonged dry periods. Rivers in the wet zone of the country feed

CLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 2

agricultural irrigation systems, which covers 13 percent of cropped land, some of which is double-cropped.
Increased drought and flood frequency and severity from a changing climate can be expected to strain these
systems, particularly in the dry zone where 70 percent of rice paddies are located. These areas, already
prone to drought, may face more extreme fluctuations in growing conditions. Additionally, increasing
temperatures will likely increase the rate of evapotranspiration for holding tanks and in rice paddies, further
exacerbating water shortage issues. With high poverty rates, high exposure to drought, and large
dependence on agriculture, the three most water vulnerable irrigation districts are Thanamalwila
(Moneragala District), Anamaduwa (Puttalam District), and Horowpothana (Anuradhapura District).
Conversely, increased rainfall in the wet zone will likely lead to greater flood and erosion risk. In recognition
of the problems imposed by uneven distribution of precipitation, rainwater harvesting for both human
consumption and for agricultural use is on the rise, as are shade tree management practices and more
robust land suitability assessments. (2,4,5,8,9,13)

HEALTH
Having made great strides with its health system in Climate Stressors and Climate Risks
recent years, Sri Lanka is a leader among developing HEALTH
countries and provides universal health care through its Stressors Risks
Ministry of Health. However, increased vulnerability in Shifts in vector- and waterborne
the face of climate change will likely prove challenging. Increased diseases
This is especially true for vector-borne illnesses, temperatures
Decreased nutrition and food
particularly dengue fever. Spread by mosquitos, security
Increased
dengue outbreaks are occurring with higher frequency drought
and severity as conditions improve for the insect Reduced availability and
frequency and
increased disruption of health
populations. During 2017, Sri Lanka faced an duration
services
exceptionally high number of dengue cases, 4.3 times
Increased storm Reduced water quality and
the 2010-2016 average. There were 189 thousand
frequency and availability
cases of suspected dengue reported, with 302 deaths. intensity
The dengue virus that caused this outbreak was not the Difficulty maintaining sanitation
systems and practices
usual one circulating in Sri Lanka.(17) Urbanization,
overcrowding, increased daytime and nighttime
temperatures, and poor water management practices pose serious public health risks, as they are conducive
to mosquito breeding and subsequent spreading of dengue. Leptospirosis, a rodent-borne disease, is also a
serious concern in Sri Lanka, with outbreaks typically occurring following monsoon seasons, which are
expected to intensify. Food insecurity and malnutrition are also critical concerns, with 29 percent of children
under five underweight. The impacts of changing climate conditions on both agricultural and fishing yields
may further exacerbate food insecurity. Food and waterborne illnesses, such as typhoid, dysentery, and viral
hepatitis may be affected by increased flood and drought risks. Direct weather-related health risks are also
expected to increase. This is particularly true for the 28 percent of the population working in agricultural
fields, with thermal stress and heat-related illness being of greatest concern. Increased frequency and
severity of cyclones, floods, and landslides may elevate the risk of acute injury and displacement, coupled
with decreasing access to services. Awareness of the health risks associated with climate change is
generally limited among the general public and also uneven within the Ministry of Health. (2,4,5,8,9,13)

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY

Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector comprises 7.8 percent of GDP and occupies 28 percent of the labor force.
Consequently, the adverse effects of a changing climate will create strain on Sri Lanka’s domestic market,
food security, and export potential. Stagnating sorghum and cowpea yields and declines in rice yields are
markers of currently diminished agricultural productivity, leading to increases in food insecurity in agricultural
regions, especially the most heavily drought-afflicted low country dry and intermediate zones. Additionally,
poor infrastructure in rural areas severely constrains farmers in bringing goods-to-market. Rising
temperatures, as well as increased frequency and severity of drought and flooding, will likely exacerbate

CLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 3

these existing challenges. The main crops in Sri Lanka, Climate Stressors and Climate Risks
namely various types of rice, tea, and coconut, are AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY
particularly sensitive to variation in temperature and Stressors Risks
precipitation. Variability in distribution and amounts of
Sea level rise Soil erosion
precipitation are the primary concerns for Sri Lanka’s
agricultural sector, both currently and for predicted Increased Saltwater intrusion into
conditions. Changing rainfall patterns and unexpected temperatures aquifers and cropland
periods of high rainfall are expected to strain the Variability in
capacity of irrigation systems and increase the risk of distribution and Reduced crop yields
amount of
landslide in some areas. Flooding may also increasingly Crop failures
precipitation
become a limiting factor for yields, potentially causing
crop failures. Despite recent positive economic growth Increased drought Increased malnutrition
frequency and Overload of irrigation systems
in sectors outside of agriculture, income inequality in Sri duration
Lanka remains an issue. As a result, various types of leading to flood
food insecurity and malnutrition are still prevalent and show high regional disparity. In the estate and
plantation (rural) sectors of the country, levels of stunting are three times higher than in urban areas (24
percent vs. 8 percent). As yields and economic output of Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector decrease or remain
stagnant in the face of changing climate conditions, this disparity is likely to worsen. Furthermore, many of
the fertile strips of land that support rice and coconut production are located in coastal areas. Groundwater
salinization and coastal erosion resulting from sea level rise threaten crop production and the settlements of
many farmers. (1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,13)

INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRY

Sri Lanka’s economy has experienced rapid growth in Climate Stressors and Climate Risks
recent years, growing at an average rate of 6.4 percent INFRASTRUCTURE & INDUSTRY
between 2010 and 2015. Accompanying this growth Stressors Risks
has been a transition away from a primarily rural Increased energy costs
Increased storm
agrarian economy to an urban, services-based frequency and Damage to transportation and
economy with a corresponding increase in electricity intensity import/export infrastructure
demand. Sri Lanka has been able to meet much of this
Reduced tourism industry
demand, providing electricity to 94 percent of the Coastal erosion
population using an energy mix of 54 percent imported Reduced commercial
petroleum-based fossil fuels, 41 percent hydroelectric, Increased storm development
surge
and 4 percent other renewables. The large portion of Reduced economic output
electricity generated by hydroelectric plants, however,
faces challenges. Generation facilities and reservoir infrastructure have been designed for historical rainfall
patterns and volumes. Changing rainfall patterns are likely to affect supply, and projected increases in heavy
precipitation may overburden and potentially cause damage to these systems and reduce generating
capacity. This is particularly problematic for the service and industrial sector, which rely heavily on the
availability of energy to function. In addition to energy, many industrial processes themselves require
substantial volumes of water to operate. More frequent and prolonged periods of drought could severely
strain these activities. The impact on Sri Lanka’s economic health could be significant, as industry and
services account for 30 percent and 62 percent of GDP, respectively. In addition, landslides, sea level rise,
and cyclones have the ability to damage infrastructure of all types, and particularly transportation
infrastructure. Such climate stressors could affect exports, which tallied $10.9 billion in 2017. All aspects of
the manufacturing and transportation of goods have the potential to be dramatically affected by changing
climate conditions and worsening storms. Increased difficulty and uncertainly in generating energy could
increase costs and economic risk. At the same time, the appeal of Sri Lanka as a tourist destination may also
become reduced if energy becomes constrained and infrastructure is damaged or destroyed. (1,2,5,9,12,13).

CLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 4

POLICY CONTEXT
Being a developing island nation with rich biodiversity in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, the impacts
and risks of climate change are highly visible and weigh heavily on Sri Lankan policy makers. As a result, Sri
Lanka has been relatively proactive in identifying and seeking to plan for the impacts of climate change,
including through development of a national policy and multiple adaptation-focused reports for international
agencies (e.g., two National Communications and a National Adaptation Plan).

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK NATIONAL STRATEGIES AND

Sri Lanka has been actively developing planning documents related PLANS
to climate change since the 1990s. Following the devastation of the • National Climate Change Policy
2004 tsunami, many of these documents and subsequent planning of Sri Lanka (2015)
efforts have been built around resilience to natural disasters. Conflict • National Adaptation Plan for
in the country significantly reduced development investments until Climate Change Impacts in Sri
2009. Since then, tangible progress in addressing climate change has Lanka (2015)
been slow, particularly in the northern part of the country. Though
• Technology Needs Assessment
national and regional documents have been produced to highlight the
and Technology Action Plans for
policy objectives related to climate change impacts and potential risk
Climate Change Mitigation (2014)
mitigation measures, implementation has generally been limited.
• Second National Communication
However, the government of Sri Lanka has designed and
implemented a number of plans that combat indirect risks associated on Climate Change (2012)
with climate change, including a Water Sanitation and Hygiene • State of the Nation on Climate
(WASH) program through the Ministry of Education. Management of Change (2010)
environmental practices and protection of natural resources in Sri • First National Communication on
Lanka is overseen by the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Climate Change (2000)
Environment, under which serves the Climate Change Secretariat of
Sri Lanka. (2,3,5,9,12,13)

KEY RESOURCES 1
1. CIA World Factbook. 2018. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ce.html
2. World Bank. 2011.
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/countryprofile/doc/GFDRRCountryProfiles/wb_gfdrr_climate_change_cou
ntry_profile_for_LKA.pdf
3. World Bank. 2018.
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/countryprofile/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=LKA
4. World Health Organization. 2015.
http://www.searo.who.int/srilanka/documents/review_of_climate_change_srilanka.pdf
5. Sri Lanka Climate Change Secretariat Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment. 2016.
http://www4.unfccc.int/nap/Documents%20NAP/National%20Reports/National%20Adaptation%20Plan%20of%20Sri
%20Lanka.pdf
6. Kottawa-Arachchi. 2017.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320613961_Climate_climate_change_impacts_on_biodiversity_and_ecosy
stems_in_Sri_Lanka_A_REVIEW
7. USAID. 2015.
https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Sri%20Lanka%20Climate%20Info%20Fact%20Sheet
_FINAL.pdf
8. De Zoysa. 2014. http://file.scirp.org/pdf/OJF_2014101715460663.pdf
9. Ministry of Environment, Sri Lanka. 2011.
http://www.climatechange.lk/adaptation/Files/Final_Climate_Change_Vulnerability_Databook.pdf
10. Ministry of Environment, Japan. 2016. https://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/casestudy/2016/casestudy_1_4.pdf
11. South Asia Policy and Research Institute. 2017. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-
0000039591/download/?_ga=2.260245198.210120516.1519925292-1940334105.1519657401

1
This “Key Resources” section lists works cited in preparing the Climate Risk Profile.

CLIMATE RISK IN SRI LANKA: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 5

12. UNDP. 2016. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/LECB/docs/pubs-reports/UNDP-LECB-Assessment-Sri-Lanka-
Power-Sector.pdf
13. Sri Lanka Ministry of the Environment. 2012. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/lkanc2.pdf
14. Map provided by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). 2015. GPCC Normal Version 2015 0.25 degrees.
https://kunden.dwd.de/GPCC/Visualizer
15. Satyanarayana, B. et al. 2017 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235198941730121X
16. Blankespoor, B. et al. 2016. Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate.
17. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. 2017.
https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MDRLK007dfr.pdf

SELECTED ONGOING EXPERIENCES 2

Below are selected projects focused on climate change adaptation, or some aspect of it, in Sri Lanka.

Selected Program Amount Donor Year Implementer

Safe Disaster-Resilient Drinking Water
2016 -
to Floods and Drought Prone Areas in $1 million USAID Government of Sri Lanka
present
Sri Lanka
Climate Resilience Improvement $110 2014 -
The World Bank The World Bank
Project (CRIP) million present

Renewable Energy for Rural Economic 2002 –

$75 million The World Bank Government of Sri Lanka
Development 2011
Government of Sri Lanka -
Ecosystem Conservation and 2016 –
$45 million The World Bank Ministry of Tourism and
Management present
Sports
Water Supply and Sanitation $165 2015 –
The World Bank Government of Sri Lanka
Improvement Project million present

Sri Lanka Agriculture Sector $125 2016 –

The World Bank Government of Sri Lanka
Modernization Project million present
Protect Oceans by Improving Waste 2017 –
$625,000 USAID USAID
Management present

2 This “Selected Ongoing Experiences” section lists a selection of ongoing development projects and interventions directly or indirectly
relevant to climate risk management and adaptation in Sri Lanka. Experiences were identified primarily via desk review of USAID,
multilateral development bank, and other international donor programming. Experiences listed are not meant to be comprehensive.

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