The Paradigm Shift Magazine

October 2022
 Table Of Contents

Foreword 2

Article: Pakistan's Energy Crisis & Its Solution 3

Research Paper: Weather Warfare - Weapons of the Future 14

Article: A Flooded Pakistan - Climate Change or Bad Governance? 27

Appeal: Flood Relief  43

Book Review: Pakistan - Beyond the Crisis State 44

 Article: Pakistan’s In ation Curse - Causes & Recommendations 49

Work With Us! 56

The Paradigm Shift Platforms 57

1
Foreword
Welcome to the rst edition of the Paradigm Shift e-magazine. Since starting Paradigm Shift

(www.ParadigmShift.com.pk) on August 14th, 2020, we have come a long way.

With over 80k-100k monthly visitors, and over 40,000 followers on social media, we are now able

to serve a wider percentage of the Pakistani youth. All our pieces are sent in by brilliant writers

and researchers, and our gifted editors constantly ensure the quality of our content. 

We aim for, and work towards three major goals:

1. To become a comprehensive library with high-quality content on international relations, current

affairs, global politics, and Pakistan. 

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send in their own work to share their voice with the world.

3. To showcase Pakistan in a positive and factual manner through our 'Pakistan Unveiled' section.

We have handpicked 5 special pieces from our website for this rst edition, and we hope that you

gain some insights from them. For more content on a variety of topics from across the world,

please visit www.ParadigmShift.com.pk. 

We hope that you consider sharing our website and social media with your friends and family so

that we can effectively increase our reach. Thank you again for all your support through the

years. 

www.ParadigmShift.com.pk
2
Pakistan's Energy Crisis
& Its Solution
About the Authors
Maryam Ibrahim has recently graduated from Lahore College for Women

University with a bachelor's in international relations. Her sphere of interest

includes the digitalization of international relations, speci cally digital

diplomacy.

Izza Ikram is currently pursuing her bachelor’s degree in governance and

public policy from National Defence University, Islamabad. She talks about

public policy, climate change, and entrepreneurship.

3
Energy Security
The life and processes that take place across the whole world depend on energy. It’s similar to

how the Earth may be powered. Since many production and consumption activities need energy

as their primary input, it is highly important for the growth and economic development of a

country in its growing stage. According to authors like Barney and Franzi, energy accounts for less

than one-tenth of production costs while driving nearly half of industrial development in the

modern economy. However, where there is energy, there is also a crisis.

What is it that affects everybody’s life yet cannot be touched directly? It’s natural gas. It heats

our homes and drives our economy. And when there is a depletion, it kind of has a worldwide

butter y effect. The energy crisis is the shortfall or the interruption to the provision of energy

supplies. It can be surprising to nd out that developed countries like China and Japan are also

energy insecure. Yes, the 2nd largest and the 3rd largest economies of the world, respectively, are

not secure as far as their energy needs and production are concerned.

This is because energy insecurity is de ned based on whether a country is self-producing the

energy for its requirements, whether it imports the energy to meet its requirements, or whether it

is an exporter of the energy to other countries. Along these lines, energy security for a self-

producing country can be de ned as having available, accessible, and affordable energy at all

times.

Similarly, if it is an exporter, then the country’s energy security depends on its ability to keep the

supply-demand high and global energy resources under its control. And if it is an importer, then it

must keep the energy prices and global energy markets under its in uence, as well as strive to

keep its balance of payments positive.

4
Pakistan’s Energy Crisis
As of right now, the world is facing a shortage of energy and it has sent shock waves from Europe

to Asia. Pakistan is no exception. The energy industry in Pakistan is in crisis, due to a lack of

energy output to keep up with the country’s rising demand during the past few decades. Pakistan

is now reliant on imported energy resources like gas and oil.

The Asian Development Bank published a white paper in 2019 claiming that Pakistan is an energy

insecure country. Besides Pakistan, there are numerous countries worldwide including the

developed ones that are also energy insecure. 

There are several examples of market growth followed by a downturn and severe contraction

since the energy industry is, by nature, in a loop. But the current crises are different in several

aspects. The recent increase in energy costs has given us a glimpse into the future, where market

disruptions might result if the transition to low-carbon energy sources is not adequately managed

or stressed. According to Shazia Anwar Cheema, Pakistan might face an extremely challenging

and disastrous winter as a result of the lack of long-term energy management strategies by

policymakers.

5
The crisis is likely to

worsen due to the Middle

Eastern countries, which

serve as the major source

of imports, being severely

impacted by the strain that

Europe is experiencing as a

result of the fuel and gas

shortfall. The current bleak

situation shows that the

power shortfall at the

moment is about 7,500 megawatts which subsequently results in 10-18 hours of load-shedding.

This means the current supply is about 1,800 megawatts and the required supply is 25,000-

25,500MW. Furthermore, Pakistan’s energy cost doubled in the last 9 months; it now stands at 15

billion USD.

Energy Pro le of Pakistan

The GOP, a.k.a. the Government of Pakistan, has unveiled a number of initiatives to facilitate the

public’s access to energy, spur economic expansion, and nd a solution to the energy issue. 

The initiatives include:

The National Power Policy 2013

The policy aimed to develop a power

production, transmission, and distribution

system that was effective and could

ful ll the requirements of the populace

while boosting the economy of the

nation in a cost-effective and sustainable

way.

6
Power Generation Policy 2015

The fundamental goal of the policy was to have enough (cheap) available power production

capacity while emphasizing the use of domestic resources, enabling all parties engaged in the

trade, and protecting the environment.

Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019

The major objective of the 2019 policy was to encourage and support the nation’s development of

renewable resources.

To satisfy the nation’s needs, Pakistan produces a very small fraction of its total oil output. The

production of domestic oil is restricted by technical, budgetary, and technological limitations.

According to the most recent gures, the cost of oil imports surged from July through April of

FY2022 from US$8.69 billion to US$17.03 billion, a 95.9% rise.

Oil is becoming more costly due to rising global oil prices and the severe devaluation of the

Pakistani rupee, which is putting pressure on the country’s external sector and worsening its trade

imbalance. Similarly, between July

and April of FY2022, imports of LNG

(lique ed natural gas) increased by

82.90% in value, while imports of

lique ed petroleum gas (LPG)

increased by 39.86%.

Pakistan is also using nuclear

technology to produce electricity,

and its share is rapidly growing.

During the period of July–March FY2022, the gross capacity of nuclear power plants rose by 39%

to 3,530 MW, delivering 12,885 million units of energy to the national grid.

7
If  we see the consumption of electricity by different sectors throughout Pakistan, it is divided into

various areas like domestic, commercial, industry, etc.:

Units Sold (GWh) Household Commercial Industry Agriculture Others Total

FY2020-21 41,508 6,246 22,280 7,558 7,008 84,600

(July-March)

FY2021-22 42,055 6,648 25,160 8,151 7,347 89,361

(July-March)

Electricity consumption per sector

Reasons for the Looming Energy Crisis in Pakistan

The con ict between Ukraine and Russia has caused fuel prices to soar, endangering the supply

chain and making it challenging for Pakistan to support the effective operation of its power plant.

In order to take advantage of the pro table European markets, LNG companies have broken their

agreements with Pakistan. Long-term LNG suppliers canceled several shipments scheduled for

delivery over the last few months, further

tightening supplies, which has directly resulted

in complications for Pakistan. Pakistan is

currently being forced to buy pricier LNG.

The ever-changing leadership and political

turmoil, and their unwillingness to address the

situation and create a solution further

aggravated the situation. Governments, political parties, and other interest groups continue to

interfere with business decisions like employing and disconnecting default customers. In the

meantime, the utility rms disavow all liability and accuse the management authorities of

wrongdoing.

8
There is an absence of coordination that prevents the implementation of any kind of

comprehensive or integrated energy policy that may support Pakistan’s struggling economy and

energy industry. Moreover, at a staggering 2.5 trillion Pakistani rupees, the circular debt is 10%

more than it was in the previous scal year. By 2025, it is anticipated to reach 4 trillion Pakistani

rupees, according to studies.

Reportedly, Rs. 1.5 trillion is owed by Sui Southern Gas Company Ltd (SSGCL) and Sui Northern

Gas Pipelines Ltd. (SNGPL) to the Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL) and Pakistan

Petroleum Ltd. (PPL)—the mainstay of oil and gas exploration and production in Pakistan. This

low-cost domestic energy source costs less than half as much as imported LNG, which Pakistan is

using more of.

Due to the severe nancial load this is putting on our meager foreign exchange reserves, OGDCL,

and PPL are unable to expand into new markets since their revenue is caught in a vicious circle of

debt. The lack of new investment in exploratory initiatives in the aftermath of declining oil and

gas reserves is concerning and does not bode well for the nation.

Apart from the aforementioned reasons, other contributing factors include:

 Decreasing gas supply and dependence on oil

 Unrealistic power tariffs (low investments)

 Low payment recovery

 Inef cient revenue collection

 O verpopulation, over usage

9
Impact of Energy Crisis on Pakistan
The industrial sector has also been severely damaged by the energy crisis. The manufacturing

processes of several major and small-scale industries have been sti ed by it. Due to the

continuous energy constraint, the supply of gas and electricity to the industry was shut off. The

South Asian country is experiencing a severe economic crisis, with energy imports being

hampered by rampant in ation, a depreciating rupee, and shrinking foreign exchange reserves.

The textile industry is the industry most

impacted. According to government statistics, the

home sector’s demand for energy has increased

in the summer season as a result of the

heatwave, resulting in a shortage of almost 7,000

megawatts—or one- fth of Pakistan’s generation

capacity—on several days in the summer.

Pakistan’s important textile sector, which sells everything from denim to bed linen to markets in

the US and Europe and makes up 60% of the nation’s exports, has been negatively impacted by

the electricity de cit. According to Qasim Malik, vice president of the Chamber of Commerce in

Sialkot, "the textile sector is in a situation of emergency".

What’s the Way Forward?

Pakistan, like China and Japan, also generates its power from imported fossil fuels out of which

48% is natural gas and 33% is oil. Now the question is, what is the solution to the energy crisis in

Pakistan? What measures shall Pakistan take as a result of which it could become an energy-

secure country? All over the world, especially in Europe, there is a clean energy revolution in full

swing.

10
A massive wave of

transformation into alternative

and renewable energy from

conventional energy production

methods by the year 2030 is

underway. The national policies

have been approved and now

implementation has started.

Denmark is one of the unique

countries that have taken itself

to a highly ambitious target of shifting to 100% renewable energy resources by the year 2050.

So, in these fast-changing global energy trends, there are numerous opportunities for Pakistan to

nd a solution to its energy crisis. Following are the recommendations for adopting practical ways

toward renewable energy in Pakistan.

Research and Development

First of all, like other states, Pakistan needs to impose proper rules and regulations regarding the

operating hours of industries. Our think tanks and research centers should publish research articles

and policy papers that are Pakistan-centric, containing “robust implementation mechanisms”

considering the local challenges. Pakistan needs to combine all the energy-related institutions’

under a single ministry, which will create ef ciency in the currently dysfunctional energy sector

and the whole sector will be streamlined.

Entrepreneurial Solutions
For Pakistan’s energy sector to be supported, it requires reliable funding and tax reforms. Then

Pakistani entrepreneurs have a golden chance to come up with clever ideas to tackle the energy

insecurity problem of Pakistan. 

11
They should mobilize land, labor, and capital based on the research by policy experts to invest in

the manufacturing of green technologies that can be used locally as well as internationally. The

government of Pakistan is soon coming up with a National Innovation Fund of Rs. 100 Billion

according to unof cial sources of the Planning Commission of Pakistan. The Innovation Fund will

aim to provide nancial subsistence to innovative entrepreneurial ideas that can contribute to the

economic improvement of Pakistan. Thus, young graduates and businesses may soon have a great

opportunity to create and pitch solutions for green technology. 

Investing in Renewable Energy Industry

Similarly, it is a golden chance for local and overseas investors as well to invest in Pakistan’s

Renewable Energy

Program for which the

government of Pakistan

has given an Alternative

and Renewable Energy

Policy in 2019. The

document is the updated

version of the RE Policy

for Development of

Power Generation 2006.

Moreover, importing clean coal, which is frequently less expensive than imported oil and gas, will

allow Pakistan to rst diversify its energy mix.

To reduce its dependency on conventional energy sources, Pakistan needs to decrease the

demand for the grid station. It can do so by converting small-scale companies to solar energy and

making them self-suf cient. Cattle farming needs to be locomoted across the country. In order to

reduce their reliance on the national grid, other sources like the use of windmills have to be taken

into consideration.

12
Public-Private Partnership
The public sector of Pakistan must make renewable energy a priority. The GoP should collaborate

with the countries like China that are technologically advanced, and use this as an opportunity to

improve bilateral relationships with them. Along with this, the government must subsidize the

renewable energy industry and promote public-private cooperation to bring Pakistan out of the

energy crisis.

Conclusion
The world is changing rapidly. Every process is being automated to save time and simultaneously

speed up production mechanisms. Without energy security, keeping up with the modern world will

not be possible. If we strive to become competent and develop Pakistan as a modern country, we

must quickly adopt renewable energy methods to supplement our energy needs.

Due to the dynamics of the global

economy, it may seem that in the

near future, Pakistan will not

experience a drop in the energy

issue. However, it is the responsibility

of the political leaders and the stakeholders of Pakistan to minimize this energy crisis and nd a

solution to it. It’s important to keep in mind that being optimistic will help manage any degree of

crisis. Moreover, we should all do whatever we possibly can to strengthen our country on all

fronts.

The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not
necessarily re ect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.

To learn more about the energy crisis & renewable energy in Pakistan, please read: "What Are The
Challenges of Switching to Renewable Energy Sources?"

www.ParadigmShift.com.pk
13
Weather Warfare:
Weapons of the Future
About the Authors
Mr. Muhammad Sajjad is an MS graduate of the Department of Aerospace

and Strategic Studies at Air University, Islamabad.

www.Paradigmshift.com.pk

Ms. Saba Kiran is an MS graduate of the Department of Aerospace and 

Strategic Studies at Air University, Islamabad. She has a background in

political science and takes an academic interest in ethnopolitical con icts,

national security, strategic stability, and social con ict analysis.

14
Introduction
Since con ict is impacted by geopolitics, social, technological, nancial, environmental, and

military advancements, its future cannot be predicted. When we consider warfare, we’re often

prepared for the most recent con ict, use archaic military metaphors, or focus on historically

effective combat tactics that are now or soon will be obsolete. The picture of international

security is fast changing (Dennis, 2008).

Modern weather manipulation (WM) was developed by Langmuir and Schaefer in 1948 (Schaefer,

1953) by utilising dry ice pellets to make holes in supercooled stratus via snow-out. This

experiment provided compelling visual proof that seeding is bene cial, which encouraged more

rain augmentation and hail avoidance initiatives all around the world.

In a 1961 address to the United Nations, President John F. Kennedy declared that he would be

proposing additional joint efforts across all countries in weather prediction and ultimately weather

management. This alone depicts the enthusiasm about humanity’s in nite anticipation to modify

the weather  (List, 2004). He envisioned a day when it would be possible to manipulate the

weather, such as by pressing a button at two in the morning to bring on rain at ve in the

evening. However, he did not speci cally mention “weather manipulation,” as is to be noted.

Concept of Weather Warfare

Weather warfare is a kind of modern con ict in which the opposing nation is conquered

economically, tactfully, and covertly while suffering the maximum amount of pain possible via

the use of deliberate weather manipulation and geoengineering techniques. In this instance, bad

weather makes it impossible for the adversary to engage in combat.

15
 The most common kind of weather warfare is cloud

seeding which may be employed to increase snowfall or

rain. Weather manipulation may be used in battle because

it can be used as a tactical weapon, a strategic weapon, or

a covert way to harm an enemy state’s economy. In many

ways, military weather modi cation technologies and

weather control endeavours are similar.

The management of hurricanes and other severe storms, the elimination of warm and supercooled

fog, the modi cation of cloud cover, the enhancement of precipitation (rain or snow), and the

control of lightning have all been researched. The consequences of injecting pollutants into the

atmosphere, coating ice with lampblack, releasing frozen carbon dioxide into the clouds to

produce snowstorms, and ozone depletion have all been studied via experiments and computer

models.

Experiments on Weather Modi cation

In an effort to alter the weather, Harvard University professor Emory Leon Chaffee red charged

sand from an aeroplane in 1924. In 1930, W. Veraart shot dry ice into the skies to change the

weather. Only his book in the Dutch language contains the results of his investigation and the

methodology he used. Henry G. Houghton, a professor at MIT, sprayed hygroscopic solutions into
the fog in 1938 to clear it (Fleagle et al., 1974).

On November 13, 1946, a scientist named Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer and a pilot working for the

General Electric Research Laboratory took off and ew 30 miles to the east of Schenectady, New

York, at a height of 14,000 feet. The operation included pouring three pounds of dry ice (frozen

carbon dioxide) into the clouds (Weiss, 1975a). When Dr. Schaefer looked back, he was overjoyed

by the long snow streamers that were emerging from the foot of the cloud that they had just

traversed. They had produced a ctitious snowstorm or blizzard.

16
 After the General Electric Research Laboratory’s tests, it seemed

possible for people to nally be able to manipulate the weather for

military objectives. As tensions between the US and the Soviet Union

increased, a hypothetical weapon that could be even more destructive

than nuclear weapons is weather control (Fleagle et al., 1974).

Weather Warfare in Historical Context

The US President’s Advisory Committee on Weather Control was

founded in August 1953. Its stated objective was to evaluate the level of government involvement

and the effectiveness of weather-manipulation strategies. Colorful pigments are used to melt the

polar ice caps, unleash catastrophic oods, and release enormous amounts of dust into the

stratosphere to create precipitation as required. It makes reference to Operation Popeye, a plan to

extend the monsoon season in Southeast Asia (Byers, 1974).

The Seward Peninsula in Alaska, United States, and the Chukchi Peninsula in the Russian Far East

are divided by the Bering Channel. Arkady Borisovich Markin, a Russian engineer, also built a dam

across the strait that was out tted with several nuclear-powered pumps. The waters of the

Paci c Ocean might theoretically diverge, causing big cities like New York and London to become

hotter. Despite Markin’s claim that his goal was to “relieve the brutal cold of the northern

hemisphere,” American experts were concerned that weather

control may be used to trigger oods.

In the middle of the 1950s, the media featured public debates on

every theory created by American and Soviet scientists  (Weiss,

1975a). The US military carried out Program Popeye, a highly

classi ed operation, from 1967 until 1972. The objective was to

lengthen Southeast Asia’s monsoon season. The Vietnamese army’s

tactical logistics were badly hampered by the torrential rain.

17
 During Operation Popeye, weather modi cation

technology was successfully used for the rst time

in a military situation. When it was discovered, the

Environmental Manipulation Convention (ENMOD)

forbade its use in battle. An overview of weather

modi cation technologies is given by Air Force

Major Barry B. Coble in hisMarch 1997 book “Benign

Weather Modi cation.” He describes the changes

that have taken place, especially at the hands of

the CIA’s and Pentagon’s ercest ideological

adversaries.

In 1948, the meteorological community recognised the rst initiative that was scienti cally

supervised and regulated as weather modi cation (Fleagle et al.,1974). Dr. Irving Langmuir’s early

study on purposefully seeding clouds to generate rain yielded promising results that almost

immediately sparked a lot of interest in the area.

A 1996 research paper conducted for the United States Air Force theorised the possible use of

nanotechnology to create “arti cial weather” clouds of minute computer particles interacting with

one another to create an “intelligent fog.” An Air Force of cer cadet presents weather
modi cation technology as a force multiplier with remarkable potential that may be deployed in a

number of post-war conditions in an unclassi ed academic study produced by students  (Rodger,

2004).

International Laws on Weather Modi cation

Attempts to alter the weather and re ect solar heat have received less attention than climate

change, which has lately taken centre stage on the global agenda, despite their potential to

worsen regional con icts. In an attempt to in uence weather to their advantage or mitigate

global warming, an increasing number of governments are utilising technology to manipulate

atmospheric, oceanic, and ice conditions.

18
What may be advantageous for one country may not be advantageous for its neighbours since

the impacts of these initiatives may cross national lines  (Weiss, 1975b). Iran has previously

claimed that Israel is taking its water by using cloud-seeding to reduce rainfall over its area.

China, which already manipulates the weather arti cially over its main cities, intends to be able

to do the same throughout half of its territory by 2025, frightening nearby countries like India.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two hostile nations in the Middle East, are ratcheting

up their rain-making efforts  (Dennis, 2008). Despite his commitment to environmental change,

President Richard Nixon did not prioritise weather manipulation as a foreign policy issue in the

years prior to the adoption of the weather modi cation accord. This was a period of

unprecedented global cooperation on weather, despite Nixon’s apparent lack of interest in a

global agreement to stop weather manipulation.

The World Weather Watch and the Global Atmospheric Research Program promoted collaboration

in 135 nations by using new and improved technologies. These signi cant developments in the

realm of weather would provide the groundwork for a conference on weather manipulation. The

best weapon for enforcing such acts is a UN convention from the end of the Vietnam War. The

ENMOD Convention became effective in 1978.

The Cold War superpowers hammered out the agreement after ethical concerns over Project

Popeye, a covert cloud-seeding operation undertaken by the US Air Force from 1967 to 1972. It

prolonged the monsoon season in Vietnam and Laos so that roadways would ood and obstruct

Viet Cong combat operations. This indiscriminate technology may endanger or ruin civilian lives,

local food production, and private property when used in combat (Byers, 1974).

A reassessment of ENMOD is essential considering how quickly the earth is warming. Signatories

“shall not engage in military or any other hostile use of environmental modi cation technologies

with wide, long-lasting or severe repercussions as the means of destruction, damage, or injury to

any other State Party,” according to Article I of the agreement. Many weather and climate-

changing technologies, without necessarily being ubiquitous, long-lasting, or severe, t at least

one of the three criteria (Darack, 2019).

19
Article II of ENMOD again casts a wide net, de ning which environmental modi cation methods

are included in the agreement. This would include all currently in use weather and climate

modi cation technologies. It includes “any method for altering the dynamics, composition, or

structure of the planet, including its biota, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere, or of outer

space, by the purposeful manipulation of natural processes.”

The component of the convention that needs updating and clari cation is the purpose question.

The use of this technology for military or hostile objectives is speci cally prohibited, and

violations may be reported to the UN Security Council, but “peaceful motives” are allowed (Juda,

1984).

Implications of Weather Modi cation Techniques

Injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to boost precipitation or snowfall or alter a storm is the

method that is most often utilised. Other methods include fertilising the ocean to boost carbon

absorption, brightening clouds or ice to re ect more sunlight back into space and therefore lessen

local or global warming, etcetera  (Stutzriem, 2021). Such initiatives are presently being carried

out in more than 50 countries, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

20
The Arctic Ice Project, a non-pro t organisation, intends to disperse microscopic glass beads

packed with silicon dioxide over regions of Arctic sea ice and in the Arctic Ocean to increase

re ectivity and slow down climate change. Australian universities are experimenting with a salt

spray that is sprayed over the Great Barrier Reef to re ect more of the sun’s heat in an attempt

to preserve it.

However, it is challenging for scientists to understand both the immediate impacts of the

technology and its reverberations. The potential detrimental effects of cloud brightening, a kind of

solar radiation control, on ecological systems, agriculture, and global warming are

unknown  (Trausti, 2022). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that

cloud brightening worsens regional weather patterns, endangers the ozone layer, and does

nothing to slow down ocean acidi cation.

In order to considerably reduce global warming, cloud brightening would also need to endure

wars, economic downturns, and technological glitches. Any protracted hiatus would hasten global

warming (Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, 2021). There is ambiguity over the

possible harmful impacts of cloud-seeding on neighbouring countries, some of whom are already

struggling with problems with food or water security.

As the distribution, predictability, and amount of precipitation vary due to the changing climate,

these problems will become more urgent for many people. The use of technology has three

distinct security repercussions. 

The rst is the possibility that its usage in one place may have an effect there. Second, it could be

dif cult to distinguish signi cant consequences from minor ones in neighbouring countries. This

leads us to our third point: the use of the technology may be rationalised as benign, while

covertly being utilised to hurt an adversary  (Smith, 2006). There are questions about whether

international law is the best way to regulate this technology in the context of climate change and

national security as it is used by countries. ENMOD is the remedy.

21
Other UN environmental and climatic treaties and forums, such as the UN Framework Convention

on Climate Change, the UN Environment Assembly, the IPCC, and the UN Biodiversity Convention,

are essential for addressing various aspects of climate change. UN bodies including the UN

Security Council, the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, and the International Law

Commission are also essential in addressing how security affects climate and vice versa (Darack,

2019).

To address the use of environmental technology as a weapon, none of these is essential. Only the

ENMOD Convention has this power. The timing is also advantageous. According to ENMOD’s

Article VIII, the UN Secretary-General must confer with signatories about the need of revising the

agreement every 10 years. After the 2002 and 2013 review failures, the UN Secretary-General is

expected to re-consult with the parties by no later than 2023.

If at least ten parties respond positively, the Secretary-General shall convene a review

conference  (List, 2004). Secretary-General António Guterres should use his position’s soft power

to convince parties to support a complete reform of the treaty. He should encourage other

countries to ratify the accord as more adopt technology that changes the environment. The treaty

must also be updated to re ect a normal and contemporary understanding of “hostile” and

“peaceful” purposes.

To tackle climate change, nations must reduce emissions and support climate adaptation.

However, they must also consider how weather modi cation and geoengineering might impact

security. Reactivating ENMOD should be done rst  ( Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science
Basis, 2021).

Weather Modi cation Technologies: A Contemporary Challenge

Many countries continue to perform many experiments and exercises to understand how to

control the weather and use it in combat. As an example, the Russians have long used weather

manipulation as a hail management strategy. China has also utilised cloud seeding to produce

rain.

22
 Conspiracy theorists assert that ideas like chemtrails, the High-

frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), geoengineering,

and weather modi cation are not scienti c endeavours or research

projects, but rather cutting-edge military tools that could be used in

weather warfare to eliminate an adversary  (Weather Warfare:

Weather Modi cation Technology in Warfare, 2021).

Dr. Irving Langmuir, winner of the Nobel Prize in physics, and Dr.

Vincent J. Schaefer worked together on those initial tests for the

General Electric Research Laboratory. Langmuir claimed that, under ideal conditions, the energy

released by 30 milligrammes of silver iodide is equivalent to one atomic bomb, and that “weather

control or rainmaking may be as successful as the atomic bomb in combat.”

Langmuir stated that “the government should seize weather control phenomena in the same way

that it seized atomic energy when Albert Einstein forewarned the late President Roosevelt in 1939

of the potential potency of an atom-splitting weapon.” A dangerous cloud formation was seen

travelling toward Waco on a meteorological station’s radar in 1953, according to Captain Howard

T. Orville, leader of the US President’s Advisory Committee on Meteorological Control.

The cloud’s morphology suggested a tornado may emerge. There were no adverse effects on

persons or property from the storm’s breakup. Even while it may seem impossible to imagine a

tornado being destroyed in its early stages right now, it is extremely possible that it might happen

within the next 40 years. 

Research may reveal ways to not only scatter approaching storms and tornadoes but also

drastically affect all of our weather in the age of the H-bomb and supersonic ight. We could

really be able to create the weather almost on demand if the science of weather management

receives the funds for research that its relevance merits (Weather Warfare: Weather Modi cation

Technology in Warfare, 2021).

23
Beyond basic farming, building habitations, and a variety of other occupations, individuals may

use technology to change their own environment. We call this technique “weather manipulation.”

People engage in these extracurricular activities to alter the social and environmental

circumstances in order to further their own interests.

Conclusion
Although purposely altering the weather and using it in battle is a cruel approach. As Captain

Orville puts it, “the repercussions might be more terrible than nuclear war” if an enemy nation is

able to control signi cant weather patterns. It seems sensible that countries from all over the

globe will attempt to perfect weather warfare as a consequence. Many conspiracy theorists think

that because the US has mastered it, Russia and China are afraid of falling behind.

The weather is a natural system that develops and evolves as a result of the earth’s rotation, the

moon, and changes in the water brought on by the sun. Any human involvement with this system

might bring fatal results. The enemy country might be utterly destroyed as a result, rendering it

incapable of ever recovering.

Countries should assess the issue

and take the appropriate steps to

control weather warfare.

24
Bibliography
 Byers, H. R. (1974). History of Weather Modi cation. In W. N. Hess (Ed.), Weather and
Climate Modi cation. John Wiley & Sons.
Climate
  Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. (2021, August 9). The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

 Darack, E. (2019). Weaponizing Weather: The Top Secret History of Weather Modi cation.

Weatherwise, 72(2), 24-31. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.2019.1559400

 Dennis, A. S. (Ed.). (1980). Impacts of Weather Modi cation on Society. In Weather
Modi cation by Cloud Seeding (pp. 227-246). Academic Press.
 Fleagle, R. G., Crutch eld, J. A., Johnson, R. W., & Abdo, M. F. (1974). Weather Modi cation
in the Public Interest (R. G. Fleagle, Ed.). American Meteorological Society.
 Fleming, J. R. (2006). The Pathological History of Weather and Climate Modi cation: Three

Cycles of Promise and Hype. Historical Studies in the Physical and Biological Sciences, 37(1),

3–25. https://doi.org/10.1525/hsps.2006.37.1.3

 Friðbertsson, N. T. (2022, April 18). The Future of Warfare. NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2022-future-warfare-report-fridbertsson-025-stctts

 Juda, L. (1978). Negotiating a Treaty on Environmental Modi cation Warfare: The

Convention on Environmental Warfare and its Impact Upon Arms Control Negotiations.

International Organization, 32(4), 975-991. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706184

 List, R. (2004). Weather Modi cation—A Scenario for the Future. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 85(1), 51-63. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26216930
 Smith, J. E. (2006). Weather Warfare: The Military’s Plan to Draft Mother Nature.

Adventures Unlimited Press.

 Stutzriem, L. (2021, March 23). Weather for the War Fighter: How the US Military Can
Outmaneuver Adversaries from Space. C4ISRNET.
https://www.c4isrnet.com/opinion/2021/03/23/weather-for-the-war- ghter-how-the-us-

military-can-outmaneuver-adversaries-from-space/

25
 Weather
  Warfare: Weather Modi cation Technology in Warfare. (2021, July 23). Unrevealed
Files. https://www.unrevealed les.com/weather-warfare-weather-modi cation-technology-

in-warfare/

 Weiss, E. B. (1975a). International Responses to Weather Modi cation. International

Organization, 29(3), 805–826. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706350
 Weiss, E. B. (1975b). Weather Control: An Instrument for War? Survival, 17(2), 64-68.

https://doi.org/10.1080/00396337508441533

The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not
necessarily re ect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.

To learn more about weather warfare, please read: "Weather Warfare and Climate Modi cation -
A War Without Weapons" 

www.ParadigmShift.com.pk
26
A Flooded Pakistan: 
Climate Change or Bad
Governance?
About the Author
Ms. Fatima Arshad Warraich is a student of Government and Public Policy

at NUST. She has a keen interest in domestic and global politics and

current affairs, with a strong tendency to critically analyse political events

and ideologies.

27
Introduction
Torrential monsoon rains in 2022 have triggered the most severe oods in the recent history of

Pakistan, leaving many parts of the country devastated as over a thousand people have been

killed and millions rendered homeless. The government of Pakistan declared a national

emergency. However, the effects of the climate change-induced ash oods have been

exacerbated by bad governance, delayed response, lack of resources and a proactive approach.

The consequences of the 2022 oods are far-reaching and unprecedented as they have

engendered the imminent threat of food insecurity, water-borne diseases, malnutrition, and social

unrest in Pakistan. As the country faces a calamity of such a massive scale that has affected

every province and devastated the masses, political leaders must come together, putting aside

their partisan politics, and offer a collective response to the catastrophe in the larger interest of

the people.

From June to September, Pakistan experienced extreme monsoon weather. According to Abid

Qaiyum Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute and a member

of Pakistan’s Climate Change Council, Pakistan has received area-weighted rainfall 780% above

average levels so far this year. As of August 27, rainfall in the country was 2.9 times the national

30-year average.

28
This has resulted in extensive ooding, with disastrous consequences for human lives, property,

and infrastructure. The Government of Pakistan has classi ed 80 districts across Pakistan as

“calamity-stricken” to date. Given the continuous rainfall, these gures are projected to change,

and the number of calamity-declared areas is expected to rise. The ooding has caused

devastation on a large scale and in an unprecedented manner.

Impact of the Floods

The devastating ash oods have submerged one-third of Pakistan, affecting and displacing over

33 million people nationwide, washing away roads, homes, and crops – leaving a trail of deadly

havoc across the country. According to the National Disaster Management Authority, between

14th June and 1st September, at least 1208 people were killed, a third of which were children, and

6082 people injured, with numbers increasing as the rain continued.

Over 1 million houses have been damaged, with 436,307 completely destroyed and almost

736,242 partially damaged. Livelihoods are also being heavily impacted as 173 shops have been

destroyed and more than 733,488 livestock – a critical source of sustenance and livelihoods for

many families – have died. 

Over 2 million acres of crops and orchards have been impacted, including 304,475 acres in

Balochistan, 178,186 acres in Punjab, and 1.54 million acres in Sindh.

The crisis is being exacerbated by massive infrastructure damage. Damage to approximately

5000 km of highways and 243 bridges has not only impeded people’s ability to evacuate to safer

places but also restricted relief distribution to those in need. 

29
Minister for Planning and Development, Ahsan Iqbal, has provided a preliminary estimate of US$10

billion for repairing and reconstructing the infrastructure damaged by the ash oods and

rehabilitating the displaced refugees. He also noted that this process of reconstruction and

recuperation could take up to ve years.

Internet outages have also been reported, with the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority

attributing widespread internet cuts in central and northern Pakistan on August 19, 22, and 23 to

technical issues in the bre optic network caused by torrential rains and oods. The situation is

likely to worsen as heavy rains are continuing to pour over areas that have already been

inundated by more than two months of storms and ooding.

Flash oods and rain-induced landslides are exacerbated by the incapacity of current

infrastructure to manage the unusually large amount of water. Many rivers, including the Indus,

which runs the length of Pakistan, are at high ood alert levels and/or have exceeded their banks,

and major dam reservoirs are rapidly lling or have already over owed, posing further risk to

residents in the area and downstream.

30
NDMA issued warnings on 30th August for “very high-level oods” in River Kabul at Nowshera and

River Indus at Taunsa in the following days. The federal minister for climate change, Sherry

Rehman, has called the ood and its subsequent impacts a “crisis of unimaginable proportions.”

She said, “It’s all one big ocean, there’s no dry land to pump the water out.” The colossal impact

of the ood and its subsequent consequences such as land sliding has caused colossal damage

and widespread implications for the country.

Climate Change-Induced Flooding

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is the eighth most vulnerable country to

climate crisis despite its very low carbon

footprint. Pakistan has emitted only 0.4%

of carbon dioxide, the primary

greenhouse gas, since 1959, compared to

21.5% by the United States and 16.4% by

China.

Even though Pakistan is responsible for

the emission of less than 1% of the world’s global warming gases yet between 1952 and 2009, the

temperatures in the country have risen by 0.3°C per decade – higher than the global average. This

gradual warming of temperatures caused the phenomenal heatwaves in April and May this year

with temperatures reaching above 40°C for prolonged periods in many places.

Places like Jacobabad and Dadu even recorded scorching temperatures above 50°C. Warmer air

holds more moisture – almost 7% more per °C – and that eventually comes down. Meteorologists

had warned, earlier this year, that the extreme temperatures, compounded with the La Niña

climate event—a phenomenon that is typically associated with stronger monsoon conditions in

India and Pakistan and is expected to continue the whole year—would most likely result in “above

normal” levels of rain during the country’s monsoon season, from July to September.

31
In Pakistan’s case, it resulted in torrents and ash oods. The extreme heat also led to glacial

melts in the country’s northern mountainous regions that are home to the greatest number of

glaciers outside the polar zone, thereby increasing the amount of water cascading into tributaries

that eventually ow into the Indus. The Indus River runs from north to south through Pakistan,

sustaining towns, cities, and enormous expanses of agricultural land along the way.

Climate experts noted that high

ows and muddy water in the

Hunza River, which feeds into

the Indus, indicated rapid glacial

melting because fast water

picks up sediment as it moves

downstream. Several glacial

lakes have burst through the ice

barriers that usually restrain

them, causing unprecedented ash ooding in the country.

The heatwaves were followed by another unusual occurrence: a depression, or a system of

intense low air pressure in the Arabian Sea, which brought torrential rain to Pakistan’s coastal

districts in June, much earlier than the monsoon season. Furthermore, the early onset of the
monsoon on 30th June exacerbated the situation. Consequently, Pakistan received the highest

amount of rainfall in at least three decades.

Southern and central parts of Pakistan, particularly Balochistan and Sindh, have been impacted

the most. Balochistan received 5.1 times its 30-year average rainfall as of August 27, while Sindh

received 5.7 times its 30-year average. Hill torrents erupted in Balochistan, Sindh, and South

Punjab, with the majority of the districts inundated and water unlikely to recede anytime soon.

32
According to the NDMA, the higher rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan indicates a change in the

monsoon pattern from its centuries-old passage, as the region is normally not affected by the

monsoon. Traditionally, the monsoon currents start from the Bay of Bengal and enter the Indus

Valley from Kashmir which serves as an entrance to Northern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,

nourishing human settlements, feeding crops and replenishing the rivers and their tributaries.

However, this year, instead of following its traditional route, it entered Sukkur, Khairpur, and the

neighbouring districts of central Sindh short of Karachi, directly from Rajasthan and Gujarat in

India, causing unprecedented rainfall and ash oods in regions not accustomed to monsoon rains.

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh has aptly noted that Pakistan has witnessed ve meteorological disasters

happening simultaneously and coinciding in various regions of the country: the torrential rains in
Sindh and Balochistan due to the monsoon’s change of pattern; ash oods in southern Punjab

and lower Sindh, emanating from Balochistan’s Koh-e-Suleiman mountain range; urban ooding in

the country’s coastal areas; glacial outbursts

in the upper Indus basin resulting in

downstream ooding; and cloud outbursts

upstream of Nowshera at the Kabul river, a

tributary of the Indus.

With rivers breaking their banks, ash

ooding, and glacial lakes bursting, Pakistan is facing the worst oods of its history.

33
Bad Governance Exacerbating the Crisis
Climate change may have induced the ash oods, but the ensuing humanitarian crisis was

worsened by bad governance and mismanagement. The catastrophic consequences could have

been mitigated if the incumbent government and its predecessors had taken timely action and

adopted a proactive approach to address fundamental issues like climate change. 

Pakistan lacks long-term planning, climate-resilient initiatives, adequate water infrastructure,

ood-resilient construction plans, and an effective drainage system since policies are in uenced

by political agendas and personal interests and the local governments remain dormant.

In May, the Pakistan Meteorological Department predicted an early monsoon bringing above-

average rainfall in the country and warned of ash oods, following the directives issued by the

South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum. If the government and relevant authorities had paid

heed to the warnings issued by PMD, an integrated and comprehensive system of ood

management could have been devised alongside effective mechanisms for rescue operations and

relief distribution.

Mapping of communities and settlements

more vulnerable to ooding, as well as

identi cation of locations where the

ood-affected people could be evacuated

should have been carried out to mitigate

the loss of human lives and livestock. The

impact of timely evacuations is evident

from ADC Nowshera, Ms. Qurutulain

Wazir’s efforts as she went door-to-door

to evacuate people settled in ood-prone

areas and helped them settle in the relief camps.

34
DC Nowshera warned of 400,000 cusecs of ood water from the Kabul River entering the district

in the next 24 hours, saving hundreds of precious lives. If administrators and politicians across the

country had adopted a similar approach following NDMA’s warnings that were issued a couple of

months prior to the ash ooding, the devastating impact of the oods could have been assuaged

and the damages controlled.

While oods are natural disasters, mismanagement and encroachments signi cantly exacerbate

the destruction caused by these oods. The country’s ruling elite and civil bureaucracy learned

little from the devastating riverine oods of 2010. In Pakistan, the water channels have been

devoid of embankments, which can effectively control the devastating effects of ooding.

The repercussions of construction on riverbanks and other encroachments in ood-prone zones

were most discernible in the devastation caused by the 2022 ash oods in Swat Valley. The

famous Honeymoon Hotel in Kalam, which had been built on the bank of the Swat River, was

washed away in seconds by the ash oods, despite the owner reportedly spending a fortune to

make it ood-resistant.

It is pertinent to note that the same hotel had been destroyed in the 2010 oods and was granted

permission for reconstruction, only to be annihilated by oods again. Similarly, the deteriorating

situation of Karachi due to urban ooding is in part caused by illegal structures and
encroachments built on stormwater drains, obstructing the smooth ow of water during heavy

rains, resulting in ash ooding and damage to the city’s infrastructure.

It is imperative that the government ensures effective policy planning to prepare for oods and

other-climate induced disasters, manage response efforts, and develop climate-resilient

infrastructure and communities to achieve sustainable development. The ash oods have left

one-third of Pakistan – a water-stressed country that is ranked 14th on the list of the world’s 17

countries with “extremely high-water risk” – underwater.

35
For at least one month of the year, more than 80% of the country’s entire population endures

serious water scarcity. According to the IMF, Pakistan’s yearly water availability per capita has

dropped to 1017 cubic metres from 1500 cubic metres in 2009. Pakistan is getting close to the

1000 cubic metre scarcity

threshold. According to

current trends, the

country is on a trajectory

to reach dangerous levels

shortly, as its gross water

withdrawal accounts for

74.4% of total renewable

water resources.

Pakistan Council of Research on Water Resources warned that Pakistan will reach absolute water

scarcity if adequate measures are not taken. The climate change-induced ash ooding caused

immense devastation across the country as unfortunately, the country lacks the capacity to store

water to meet its future water and energy needs. This important resource has been wasted due

to the country’s inadequate water infrastructure.

Pakistan’s water storage capacity is limited to a maximum 30-day supply, far below the 1,000-
day storage capacity recommended for a country with such climatic conditions. Bad governance,

provincial feuds, and lack of political will and resources have obstructed the construction of dams

in Pakistan that are necessary for water storage, ood control, irrigation, and power generation.

Apart from the paucity of suf cient pre-emptive measures to control the impact of oods, bad

governance and maladministration have affected rescue and relief operations.

36
The government’s response to ood

victims has largely been inept and

inadequate. Despite multiple calls to

provincial and municipal authorities by the

crowd that assembled on the riverside, to

the ve men who waited for over three

hours to be rescued as they scrambled

onto a big rock in the middle of the

gushing torrents in the Dubair stream in

Lower Kohistan, with ropes tied round their bodies, hoping they could use them to be pulled

through to safety. However, they could not move, and the concerned authorities did not respond.

To the dismay of the onlookers, four of the ve were eventually washed away by the raging

waters. Only one of the men was grabbed by the crowd before he was engulfed by the oods.

Instead of meaningful, empathetic acts of leadership from the ruling elite, there have been just

camp visits and few ration bag drops from helicopters.

The Sukkur police claimed to have registered an FIR on terrorism charges against over 100

unidenti ed people for allegedly attacking police of cers, pelting vehicles with stones, damaging

public and private property, and inciting ood victims outside a relief camp on August 26th,

during the prime minister and foreign minister’s visit. Furthermore, the armed forces were called
on August 26th for rescue operations and assistance to ood victims much later than the

beginning of the catastrophic ash ooding.

On August 29th, the Prime Minister summoned an all-parties conference sans Pakistan Tehreek-e-

Insaf to develop a joint strategy to address the ood crisis. The non-invitation to the APC re ects

the political bitterness that is preventing a consensus among the country’s leaders to develop a

united, national front to manage the ensuing humanitarian crisis. It is also pertinent to note how

the decision would affect the relief activities carried out in the provinces where PTI is in power. In

the wider interest of our people, partisan politics should be put on hold for a while.

37
Response to the Flash Floods
Amidst the economic turmoil, the government lacks the means, resources, and capacity to

independently provide relief and rebuild the people displaced and areas affected by oods.

Welfare and non-governmental organisations have played a pivotal role in conducting rescue and

relief operations for ood victims.

The Government of Pakistan announced a $170 million allocation to ood victims on August 30th,

which will be distributed through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) as part of the

Pakistan Flood Response Plan 2022. The former prime minister, Imran Khan, held a 3-hour-long

telethon to raise funds for ood affectees and received ₨. 500 crores (or US$22.5 million) in

pledges for ood relief.

Flood relief donation campaigns by various government and non-government organisations are

being conducted across the country, as the “resilient” nation seeks to help its affected brethren

out of another catastrophe. The Prime Minister, in a video message, appealed to international

communities and organisations to aid Pakistan in its hour of need.

He said, “The current relief operation needs 80 billion rupees ($364.4 million). Hundreds of billions

of rupees are required to overcome the losses as well as for rehabilitation of the victims.” In

response to the PM’s appeal, the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and other agencies have

pledged more than $500 million for immediate assistance.

The UN has allocated $3 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to assist the

impacted areas. The United Nations chief Antonio Guterres called the oods “a monsoon on

steroids” as he requested international organisations for an additional $160 million in emergency

help for ood relief efforts in Pakistan.

38
Furthermore, the European Union has declared 350,000 euros ($348,000) in humanitarian relief;

the Red Cross Society of China has announced $300,000 in emergency funds, and the United

States has provided $1 million. Countries worldwide including the United Kingdom, Canada,

Turkey, Germany, France, Japan, UAE, etc. have sent aid and relief goods to Pakistan for the

ood-affected people and areas.

It is the government of Pakistan’s responsibility to disburse and utilize the provided funds with

transparency and equity. As the national leaders urge international donors to send aid, the

leadership should focus on demanding climate reparations from the Global North because of the

global warming activities and high greenhouse gas emissions in developed economies that are

instigating catastrophic climate change-induced disasters such as the current ash oods in

Pakistan in the Global South.

Prime Minister of Fiji, Frank Bainimarama, during the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow,

blamed the high-emitting industrialised nations for the devastating ood in Pakistan. He said,

“Let’s be clear: the Pakistani people did not do this to Pakistan – we all did, and the high-emitting
nations are most responsible” As noted by Huma Yusuf, Pakistan currently lacks a comprehensive
reparations policy, as well as a climate diplomacy strategy.

39
The country’s COP26 obligations to reduce emissions were conditional on getting climate nance,

most likely in the form of debt forgiveness. Pakistan will undoubtedly seek foreign assistance in

the aftermath of the oods, but the country must decide whether it will embrace the climate

justice argument and demand reparations from the high-emitting nations of the West, with whom

Pakistan is struggling to repair its relationship, or continue to negotiate debt relief

opportunistically.

Consequences of the Flash Floods 2022

The extent of the devastation to infrastructure, crops, and livestock will become evident once the

waters recede. The consequences of this crisis will be widespread and unprecedented. Each of us

must act not only for the sake of humanity but also for our own survival. The ash oods have

stripped the people of the ood-affected areas of their means of livelihood as it has killed and

displaced thousands of livestock, the primary source of sustenance for families in rural areas.

The victims will have no choice but to seek jobs in urban areas in order to feed their families,

increasing the country’s already high urbanisation level. This level of migration, along with a

government constrained by high de cits, can quickly lead to social unrest and inequality. Given

the severity of crop and livestock destruction as well as disruptions in transportation networks

connecting farming areas to metropolitan centres, the ensuing threat of food insecurity in the

country is imminent and almost inevitable.

According to Ahsan Iqbal, Minister of Planning and Development, 45% of cotton crops have been

swept away, with early wheat sowing also disrupted in southern Pakistan, as wide swaths of land

remain submerged with ood water, causing serious damage to rice elds, vegetable and fruit

harvests. Cotton plantation damage will have a signi cant impact on industrial activity.

40
With crops, harvests, and farming communities contributing signi cantly to Pakistan’s agriculture-

based economy and textiles accounting for a considerable portion of export pro ts, the impact

will reverberate throughout the national economy. The government must establish a centralised

crisis response task

force in order to better

control the situation and

address urgent needs

such as managing the

looming shortages and

food in ation and

providing adequate food

and shelter to the

displaced people.

Many of the worst-affected districts are among the most vulnerable in Pakistan. Almost one-third

of the victims of the ash ooding are children; the 2022 oods have completely or partially

damaged at least 18,000 schools across Pakistan, disrupting their learning opportunities in areas

where one-third of girls and boys were out-of-school even before the crisis.

Furthermore, as parts of the country continue to remain under-water, vector, food and water-

borne diseases including diarrhoea, dysentery, food poisoning, dengue, typhoid, cholera, hepatitis

A and E, respiratory problems, and skin infections, among the ood affectees – particularly the

children, pregnant and lactating women – are becoming rampant.

Most of the impacted districts have had public health facilities damaged, medicines destroyed,

many health personnel displaced, and relief operations due to damaged infrastructure delayed,

thereby further deteriorating the condition of the people devastated by the oods.

41
The torrential rains that have left most of Sindh inundated have also destroyed the vestiges of the

province as well, mostly affecting the historic remnants of the Indus Valley Civilisation dating back

to 2500 BCE at Mohenjo Daro, Kot Diji, and Ranikot.

According to Pakistan’s Department

of Archaeology, Mohenjo Daro may

be withdrawn from the World

Heritage List if urgent conservation

and restoration efforts are not

undertaken. While the government

and non-governmental welfare

organisations work to provide aid

and rehabilitate the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by ash oods, historical and

archaeological sites around the province must be repaired and conserved.

The early onset of monsoon and climate change-induced ash oods in 2022 have left most parts

of Pakistan inundated and devastated. The government of Pakistan must learn its lessons from

the cataclysmic oods and strategically plan to develop climate-resilient policies, and address the

disaster’s causal factors such as encroachments near water ows.

It must also ensure the development of effective disaster management and response plan for

future calamities, and demand climate reparations through diplomatic channels from the Global

North whose high emissions are impacting developing countries like Pakistan. 

The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not
necessarily re ect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.

To learn more about the devastating oods in Pakistan, please read: "A Cyclical Disaster: The
2022 Floods of Pakistan" 

www.ParadigmShift.com.pk
42
Please Donate for Flood Relief!
To help the victims of the devastating oods that affected over 33 million people in

Pakistan, the Paradigm Shift team was successfully able to raise 30,00,000 for immediate

ood relief activities.

However, the struggle on-round is very real.

As of 30th August, 2 million+ acres of crops

have been affected, over 735,000 livestock

have been lost, over 325,000 houses were

destroyed, and over 733,000 houses were

damaged. Over 1,100 people lost their lives,

and 1600+ were injured.

We would request all of you to donate

generously to our partners, or any charity of

your choice, because there is still a dire need

for funds in these ood-affected areas. 

43
Pakistan:
Beyond the Crisis State
About the Author
Ms Tamseel Aqdas is studying Peace and Con ict Studies at National

Defence University, Islamabad.

44
The Contributors
Maleeha Lodhi and the other contributors of Pakistan: Beyond the ‘Crisis State’ successfully

provide critical policy recommendations addressing the systematic plus fundamental challenges

encountered by the state, as means to bring about long-term stability. It is argued that the

current commotion and turmoil in the state of Pakistan is a result of a lack of of cial effort for

future planning.

Historian Ayesha Jalal discusses Pakistan’s neglect of history beyond the emotional framework,

while Akbar S. Ahmed, who holds value in modern-day Islam, argues that following the vision of

Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s inclusive Pakistan could have averted several challenges.

Mohsin Hamid investigates the poor tax collection mechanism of Pakistan, and how it hinders the

development of the state. Moreover, Zaid Haider talks about Pakistan’s struggles with terrorism

and extremism. He states that when Zul kar Ali Bhutto became the rst civilian ruler of Pakistan

after military dictatorships, the state wasted an opportunity to establish civilian supremacy.

However, it is critical to take into account that several peace dialogues and processes with

terrorist organizations in Pakistan have failed, and military action has yielded the most prominent

results. Lastly, journalist Zahid Hussain discusses battling militancy in Pakistan. He advises for

Taliban’s rise to be combatted through political mobilization rather than employing militancy.

The Content
Pakistan: Beyond the ‘Crisis State’ effectively provides short and long-term reforms required which

include improving public institutions of the state, ensuring checks and balances, and generating

competent civil servants. However, it is also stated that the imposition of these reforms requires a

vision and mechanism for implementation. Moving forward, this book also highlighted the

requirement for syncing the politics of the country with its social, economic, and technological

shifts.

45
These shifts are responsible for generating a connected Pakistani society and transforming the

national landscape. Examples of this include instigating electoral reforms for the purpose of

promoting the participation of the educated middle class in politics. This will cause the needs of

individuals to be addressed, and measures for improvement can be undertaken accordingly.

With respect to redesigning governance policies,

it is also essential to understand that democracy

is incomplete without the presence of the rule of

law. Hence, the judicial system should be

strengthened, with checks and balances

introduced. Justice should be available to the

citizens of Pakistan, including those with lower

socioeconomic standing.

Another critical element for political stability is

good civil-military relations. The military should

be responsible for providing oversight, while

civilian politicians should go according to

constitutional norms and resolve disputes without

military involvement. The book further discusses

the need for an economic revival in Pakistan.

Both short and long-term reforms should be undertaken to ensure macroeconomic stability in

Pakistan.

Macroeconomic stability is dependent on nancial balances that are a result of the effective

mobilization of resources. In this regard, the revenue of Pakistan should be expanded by taxing the

elites and adding exempted sectors like agriculture into the taxation regime. As a result, the

revenue generation of Pakistan will increase and resources shall be mobilized.

46
 Hence, the state should play a key role in introducing

an environment for economic growth, as it will also

lead to job creation and address unemployment in

Pakistan. An environment for economic growth can be

generated through addressing the infrastructural

de cits, developing a framework for the regulation of

economic activities, and crowding out public

investments.

Economic revival can also be introduced through the

agricultural sector. For this purpose, investments in

rural infrastructure should be undertaken, effective

incentives should be introduced, along with land

reclamation, development of technology, and

employment of international market rules. Such actions can aid the country in being promoted to

a food reservoir for the region, which will impact its economic standing positively.

The promotion of industrial growth plus expansion is dependent on supporting local enterprises

and encouraging manufacturing sectors to seek competitive advantages in the markets. The book

further analyses the critical need for human development in Pakistan. The state should set targets

for providing universal primary education. In addition, combating poverty and ending violence

against women are also part of the wider need for human development in Pakistan.

In order to combat terrorist organizations, the state should generate awareness and combat public

support for militant organizations. In this manner, recruitment into such organizations will be

prevented and radicalization shall be reduced. With respect to meeting national objectives and

strategic goals, Pakistan needs to reinstate its foreign policy and improve on diplomatic fronts.

47
The main objective of the state is to ensure peace in Afghanistan by ending terrorism within the

region. Concerning India, deterrence should be maintained while also potentially exploring

grounds for trade and economic relations. Strategic and economic relations should be maintained

with China and a stable relationship of mutual interest with

the US.

Conclusion
In Pakistan: Beyond the ‘Crisis State’, Maleeha Lodhi was

able to successfully assemble in uential academics, writers,

and policymakers under a single volume to provide insider

perspectives on the depleting situation of Pakistan from

various angles.

However, it can be argued that this book provides a one-

sided perspective on the issues of Pakistan, and the role of the military is largely deemed as

negative despite their extensive contribution to the state. The book also argues against military

association with politics without taking into account the political

vacuum created by incompetent civilian leaders.

The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the

author’s own and do not necessarily re ect the editorial position
of Paradigm Shift.

To read another book review on Pakistan, please check out:

"Pakistan: A Hard Country by Anatol Lieven"

www.ParadigmShift.com.pk
48
Pakistan’s In ation
Curse: Causes &
Recommendations
About the Author
Ms. Samana Mehmood is currently pursuing her bachelor's in international

relations from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Her areas of interest

include non-traditional security challenges, geopolitics, international law,

Middle Eastern politics, and South Asia.

49
What is Food In ation?
In economics, food in ation is termed as a persistent rise in prices of food

items that negatively affects the purchasing power of people. The

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both play an

important role in determining the rate of in ation. Food in ation has a

multi-dimensional effect on everyone. In developing countries, such as

Pakistan, food in ation creates a big issue as the purchasing power of

people is affected by it.

Food In ation in Pakistan: A Rising Issue

Food price in ation has emerged as the main economic challenge for Pakistan. It harms growth

and reduces the purchasing power of people. Pakistan, being a developing country, is facing a

challenge with rising food prices. This problem needs to be

addressed as it decreases the welfare of poor people. The

food in ation crisis is pushing many into poverty. Moreover,

no relief is being provided to the people by the government.

Nobody in Pakistan draws attention to problems like

structural aws, ineffective coordination between the federal

and provincial governments, weak enforcement of laws

prohibiting high market pricing, and unfair business activities

like hoarding and disrupted supply chains, etc. In this

scenario, the depreciation of the rupee is held responsible for

all issues and is not addressed. There are a variety of causes

and effects of this record food in ation in Pakistan. Some

economists contend that it is due to global consequences

and political instability in the country.

50
 Food in ation is a widespread phenomenon in Pakistan as

governments continue to increase prices,  making the lives

of common people unbearably dif cult. The country’s food

prices are being driven up mostly by the currency rate and

oil prices. In ation is further boosted by ongoing wheat

our and sugar crises brought on by false shortages,

enabling people to sell them at higher prices.

The increase in in ation has created malnutrition problems

and lowered the standards of living, both of which give

rise to health-related issues. According to the Global

Hunger Index , Pakistan ranked 92nd out of 116 countries

which shows a serious level of hunger in the country. Food

in ation in Pakistan remains in double digits for the second

straight year. It increased to a record of 28.80 per cent in July, according to the Bureau of

Statistics. It has eroded the purchasing power of people and with the same income level, they

cannot purchase these goods.

Reasons for High Food Prices in Pakistan

While analyzing the effects of food in ation in Pakistan, it is imperative to address its causes as

well. Some of the indicators that have directly impacted food in ation in Pakistan are as follows:

Currency Devaluation

The depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee is a signi cant factor in the rising food in ation in

Pakistan. The political instability in the country over the past few months also impacted the

currency devaluation. Pakistan is a net importer of food items so the depreciation of the rupee

increased the prices of food commodities.

51
All imported goods, including crude oil, soybeans, poultry feed, fertilizer, seeds, and pesticides

face price hikes as a result of devaluation. The cost of producing agricultural commodities is

impacted by the rise in the pricing of these imported goods. Over the past year, the cost of

imported DAP fertilizer has climbed by more than twice as much.

Cost of Production

The exchange rate devaluation and global increase in

oil prices have badly affected the cost of production.

The rise in prices of key inputs i.e. seed, fertilizers,

pesticides, agricultural machinery, and transportation

directly impact the prices of nished products. On IMF’s

demands, subsidies on seeds and fertilizers have been

withdrawn, resulting in a rise in prices.

Due to less production of fertilizers in the country, the

government has to import DAP fertilizer at high rates.

The shortage of fertilizer affected crop production

which has caused price hikes. In case of a shortage of

canal water, tube wells are used that require diesel.

Similarly, agricultural machinery requires fuel and due

to high rates of fuel, the cost of production is directly

affected. As the cost of production increases, so does food in ation.

Increase in Oil Prices

Oil prices have a crucial role in increasing food in ation. Transportation of food to great distances

requires more fuel consumption. High oil prices raise shipping costs. It also has a great impact on

the cost of production of crops as fuel is required in the agricultural sector.

52
An increase in crude oil prices has a direct effect on energy-related items such as electricity and

household fuels. The expensive LNG (lique ed natural gas) and LPG (lique ed petroleum gas)

agreements with Qatar in July also resulted in increased oil prices in the country. In July, in ation

in Pakistan increased by 33% due to high petroleum prices.

Climate Change

The changing climate affected the average

production of Pakistan’s staple food crop – wheat.

Due to the early heat wave in March, there’s

relatively less productive than in previous years. This

led to an increase in in ation as there was less supply

of wheat. The rate of in ation increased in Pakistan

due to a 60% increase in the price of wheat.

Heavy rains and ooding in many parts of Pakistan

have badly affected the crop yields creating food

insecurity in the country. Rains have damaged cotton,

dates, chilies and other vegetable production. About

70% of onion production in Sindh has been affected

by oods. This will lead to a shortage and a rise in the price of commodities. Rains and oods

create supply shocks which create in ation in the food sector.

Government Presence in Marketplaces

Ineffective cropping patterns are the result of government intervention in the market. Due to

government support for the cultivation of sugarcane and wheat, other crops that compete with

them produce less. The discrepancy between the supply and demand of crops is brought on by the

farmers’ altered preferences.

53
The demand-supply gap increases dependence on imported products that are very expensive due

to exchange rate depreciation. Many food items remain in demand despite the monetary

tightening. As a result, importing food commodities pushes up the cost of those items and

contributes to food in ation.

Recommendations
It is the responsibility of the government to keep food in ation within reasonable levels. The lack

of coordination between federal and provincial governments creates room for an increasing rate of

food in ation. Effective social protection plays an important role in controlling food in ation.

The water shortage problem should be resolved by constructing dams and storing more water so

that it can be used instead of using tube wells and generators to irrigate lands. Water

conservation techniques should be introduced. Policies should be introduced to improve ef ciency

in the use of petroleum products. Exploration of new oil and gas resources should be encouraged

as the imported oil and its transportation to Pakistan is expensive.

The government should take steps to improve monitoring systems that track imports and exports,

currency movement, and public and private stocks. It should adopt effective monetary and scal

policies to control in ation. It should introduce effective income support programs to lessen the

impact of rising food in ation. The Pakistani government should incentivize the producers,

especially the farmer community, and promote progressive taxation for them rather than

consumption-based taxation.

The cost of production of food items should be controlled by ensuring timely and proper

availability of fertilizers, seeds, and pesticides at affordable rates. Private sectors should be

encouraged to invest in fertilizers. The open market must take the place of the black market and

farmers must be provided with quality seeds and equipment. Food price volatility poses risks for

everyone. National and international trade policies should be introduced to make markets stable

and predictable for producers. Management of food-grain stock purchases and releases should be

improved to reduce food price volatility.

54
To mitigate the causes and effects of food in ation in Pakistan,

there is a need to promote research and development in the

agriculture sector and technological advancements should be

introduced for the adaptation of climate-smart agriculture.

Infrastructure development, such as the construction of roads

from villages to cities, should take place to reduce the

transportation charges for food commodities. Moreover, the

government should provide warehouses to farmers for proper

storage and preservation of food. Such improvements would

increase the productivity growth that is essential for sustainable

growth in agricultural production.

The views and opinions expressed in this article/paper are the author’s own and do not
necessarily re ect the editorial position of Paradigm Shift.

To learn more about the economic crisis in Pakistan, please read: "Is Pakistan Becoming Another
Sri Lanka?"

www.ParadigmShift.com.pk

55
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