MANAGING THE ENERGY SECURITY OF PAKISTAN: CHALLENGES AND OPPURTUNITIES

Abstract:

Energy shortage in Pakistan is a cause of major concern because it is one of the major hurdles in
the social and economic development of the country. Due to lack of cooperation and consensus
among political leadership and the establishment of lesser power projects, Pakistan is facing
energy shortage that is not only unacceptable but harmful in today’s era of economic
development and globalization. The government needs to revamp the existing projects,
establish new projects, involve experts and academia, strengthen institutions and develop think
tanks to address the issue of energy security in the country. These measures can ensure a
sustainable and prosper Pakistan in the future.

Key Words

Energy security; energy management; power generation; energy resources

Introduction

“Let us mobilize all our resources in a systematic and organized way and tackle the grave issues
that confront us with grim determination and discipline worthy of a great nation.” Quaid e
Azam

Pakistan faces a grave problem of energy shortage at the moment. According to the World Bank
every third person in Pakistan does not have access to electricity. Energy security is the
fundamental block for international and national energy frameworks across the globe. In
Pakistan, profound negative impacts of the country’s shortcoming of the energy system can be
seen on public well-being and health. Energy insecurity has also led to energy related civil
unrest. Keeping in view the growing demand of energy, it is expected to quadruple over the
next two decades. A number of specialists stresses upon the fact that Pakistan needs to take
immediate action in order to strengthen its energy security outlook effectively.

Conceptual framework

Energy has numerous forms and it is an extremely valuable asset to any country that has far
reaching effects on its trade, political wellbeing, basic infrastructure and economy. It ranges
from thermal sources such as natural gas, oil, fossil fuels like coal to nuclear resources and
hydel power. It also includes the solar power, wind and geothermal resources that are
potentially more viable. All these resources play a vital role in the economic security of a
country because of their importance in the economic activities. Economic security marks the
self sufficiency of the country that ultimately leads to a relatively stronger place in world affairs.
Therefore, addressing the security of energy assets should be one of the most important
priorities of the country so as to maximize her political and industrial outcomes and to increase
her global influence (Petroleum 2010)

Based on the above discussion we can imply that the presence of adequate amount of well-
guarded energy resources, so as to attain the optimum industrial output, is crucial to social,
political and economic well-being of a country. For a country to be prosperous, it takes more
than just the access and plain utilization of energy resources. The actual challenge for a country
is to effectively utilize its energy reservoirs. As stated above, the economy of a country directly
depends on the energy availability and supply, if the deliverance of the required amount of
energy fails, it can lead to a wide range of negative impacts that goes far beyond just the
economic aspect of the country. In today’s world, provided the importance of energy security, it
is the top most priority of just about every nation. Energy security has a direct effect on the
policy making of the state even regarding national security (British Petroleum 2012)

The concept of energy security is elusive. The term “energy security” though widely used but
has no consensus over its precise definition and has been defined differently by different
authors. One conclusive definition defines energy security as “low vulnerability of vital energy
systems”(Alhajji 2008). A comprehensive case can be developed about how the future
prospects of Pakistan depend on well maintained, secure and uninterrupted supply of energy.

Research questions

This research tries to answer the following questions

1. Where does Pakistan stand in terms of its standard of energy security as compared to
global standards?
2. What are the risks faced by the energy sector of Pakistan in the current world dynamics?
3. How can Pakistan deal with its energy security risks?

Objectives

1. To emphasize on the fact Pakistan should prioritize its energy security management.
2. To elaborate on foreseeable and imminent threats to the energy sector of Pakistan
3. To evaluate the policies and efforts that is being made towards securing the energy
resources and exploring new possible resources.

Pakistan’s energy resources

Hydel power

The natural resources of Pakistan comprises of hydropower, nuclear power, LPG (liquefied
petroleum gas), coal, oil and natural gas. Hydropower resources are estimated to be more than
60,000 MW according a report published by the energy foundation of Pakistan. However, the
total current generation of hydropower in Pakistan is around 6773 MW i.e. approximately 31%
of the total production of electricity in Pakistan (Henry, Lingard et al. 2001)

Natural Gas

With the total reserves of natural gas estimated at about 25 trillion cubic feet, our average gas
production is around 1.5 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas is produced in all Sindh, KP, Baluchistan
and Punjab. The importance of natural gas can be known from the fact that it is not only used in
transport but also used in fertilizer production, as a fuel in industry and cement production as
well as in government and public buildings and household cooking. As far as the coal reserves
are concerned, the total coal reserves of Pakistan are estimated at about 185 billion tons out of
which 175 million tons of coal deposits are located at Thar in the province of Sindh (Henry,
Lingard et al. 2001)

Coal Reservoirs

The coal deposits present at Punjab, Sindh, KP and other parts of Sindh are lignite and sub-
bituminous types are long being exploited. Only 10% of coal in the country is used for energy
production whereas 90% is used by the brick kilns. The maximum amount of coal being used in
the cement industry is imported from other countries. The total proportion of domestic coal in
power generation is less than 2%.

Crude Oil

This region is producing crude oil since 1915. The average production of crude oil was 76200
barrels a day in 2013. The demand however surpasses the supply of crude oil with domestic oil
production meeting only 20% of the total demand in the country. To shorten the gap between
demand and supply, fuel oil, crude oil, gasoline/petrol and diesel oil is imported from Middle
East.

Nuclear power plants

A total of three nuclear power plants are currently working in Pakistan. In 1971 with Canadian
technical assistance Karachi nuclear power plant with a capacity of 137 MW was installed. In
2000 with technical support from China Chashma nuclear power plant was established. Two
plants with the capacity of each plant to be 325 MW were established. Pakistan Atomic Energy
Commission aims at increasing the capacity of nuclear energy of 8800 MW by 2030. The total
current share of nuclear power is 2.3% of the total generation capacity of Pakistan.

LPG
0.5% of the total energy supply in Pakistan is LPG. It is environmentally friendly. 20% of LPG
demand is met through imports. It plays an important role as a substitute for natural gas. It is
supplied through bottles to the areas where the availability of natural gas is a problem. The
situation of Pakistan’s capacity of energy generation as compared to the rest of the world is not
very satisfactory. It is ranked 35th in the world on the basis on annual electricity production that
is measured at 94.65 billion KW/h.

Energy Management: Challenges and opportunities

Pakistan is going through the problem of severe electricity shortage therefore; it is ranked at
182nd place in the world with 0% electricity export. However it is interesting to note here that
the electricity import of Pakistan is also nil and is ranked at 186th place in the world according to
the findings mentioned in CIA fact book 2015. Few challenges faced by Pakistan that seems to
be hurdle in importing electricity from central Asian countries are the fact that electricity can be
imported in summer and the internal problem between these states i.e. Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan, and downstream states Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan over the
construction of dams, water flow and requirement of huge investment of about $2 for
transmission line etc. On the other hand, the plan to import around 4000 MW from across the
eastern side of the border to ease the burden of energy deficit has also come to a halt due to
extremist sentiments in India during the rule of Narendra Modi.

Pakistan is ranked at 58th place in the world in the production of crude oil with its crude oil
production estimated at around 61,660 bbl/day. However, Pakistan is ranked 52 nd in the world
for the production of refined petroleum. As far as natural gas in concerned, Pakistan is ranked
23rd in the world. Therefore, Pakistan in terms of energy production is in an alarmingly worse
situation as compared to the rest of the world (Husain 2010)

Challenges to Economic growth

Energy plays a key role in the economic growth and development of the country. Energy
consumption is one of the key indicators of the living standard of people of the economy. The
energy demand in Pakistan has also increased in the recent years due to technological and
industrial development. Despite having a variety of metals, coal mines and mineral resources
Pakistan still needs to fulfill 80% of its resource demand through imports. Industries are facing
difficulties with production decreasing day by day and the situation is expected to become
worse in future with decline in energy production and lack of utilization of available energy
resources. Therefore it is of utmost importance that the energy requirements must be followed
so as to reduce energy shortages and save the industries from this crisis.

The geo-strategic location of Baluchistan province makes it as an important nexus in the supply
of gas to and from Pakistan. Sui gas field is the last natural gas field in Baluchistan accounting
for 26% of the total gas production in Pakistan. Political instability and militant attacks on the
gas fields passing from Baluchistan has also been an indirect threat to the energy security of
Pakistan. Along with affecting the gas supply in the country this issue tends to create
unfavorable environment for foreign investment in the country.

Another challenge at hand is that there hasn’t been a construction of an even single large dam
in Pakistan since 1972. Bhasha, kalabagh and Dasu dams are delayed due to a number of
factors. The future of Hydel power in Pakistan is threatening in Pakistan if no big project is
completed immediately. It is said that if kalabagh dam project is completed, it will have an
installed capacity of 2400MW to 3600MW. Water and Power Development authority believes
that the annual production of electricity will be equivalent to 20 million barrels of oil fuel that
would otherwise be required to produce thermal power. Others in general while Sindh and KP
in particular has problems with this project due to trust deficit. There is an ongoing debate
about the environmental impacts of the project. KP’s major concern is the displacement of a
large number of people also that Nowshera city of KP homes 200,000 people who are prone to
be affected by flooding in the region due to its location near Kabul river. According to the
stance taken by Sindh, the waters of Indus River will continue fulfilling the demands of Punjab
in case to construction of Kalabagh project.

It is however important to address the concerns of KP and Sindh with the help of scientific
studies on the projects. A few years ago Pakistan used to obtain half of the total electricity from
the remaining thermal and hydel energy but environmental and other concerns restrict the
exploitation of hydropower and power plants. It is therefore urgent to switch to alternative
energy sources. According to some experts, in the process of coal conservation, gas present in
the basement of the product can prove to be a good source of alternate energy. The process is
called underground coal classification where coal deposit is treated with controlled fire
resulting in gradual conversion of coal into gas.

Management of energy security crisis in Pakistan

Without any doubt Pakistan needs considerable investment in power generation and related
infrastructure. However any plan for this purpose needs to be in total correspondence with
security and the dynamics of energy management in the world and should have a positive
impact on the price and supply of energy. Also Pakistan is an inefficient energy producer as
well as inadequate in its utilization of energy when it comes to maximizing productivity. In
order to come out of this i.e. managing energy security risks, it is extremely important to
understand the mechanics of technological innovation this will not only help us cope with the
increase in world energy prices and its complications and fluctuations but also assessing its
effects on our own policies regarding the addressed issue.
The most important aspect of management suggestions and solutions is to “research the
renewable sources of energy” such as wind power and solar energy. These sources of energy
are however not expected to give a significant relief but still have the potential in the face of
our unreasonable alliance on underutilized and already depleting oil, coal and hydel power that
have political interferences in addition to the lack of new projects and dam constructions that
have been delayed time and again.

Private power generation plants

Energy and electricity in Pakistan has been generated from private plants since 1990s. The
private sector or say private companies are providing a major chunk in energy supply of the
country. Plants imported from Turkey, UAE etc. are producing and supplying energy according
to the needs and requirements of the country however, the management issue usually proves
to be a hurdle when the due payments to these sectors are stopped or delayed. As a result the
energy production is decreased and the gap between demand and supply of energy widens
causing major power breakouts across the country. Pakistan is in dire need to establish a power
infrastructure that can manage, look into and handle the arising issues in the sector. Proper and
improved management plus regular payments can help in reducing power shortages and load
shedding in energy sector of the country.

Coal reservoirs and extracting capabilities

Plans to exploit the biggest coal reserves located at Thar in Pakistan through systematic
approach have not been successful so far. Pakistan needs an overall well developed strategic
plan to develop and exploit the coal resources of the country. Any initiative in the absence of an
overall plan will bear no fruit.

Hydel power capabilities

Pakistan is blessed with one of the biggest and well-structured canal system in the world. These
hydel capabilities have been put to use through the construction of major dams like Mangla and
Tarbela along with a number of small barrages. But the fact that management crisis has not
been addressed and no new hydel construction project has been taken up, the problem of
power shortage remains intact. There is an urgent need for consensus over this issue among
our political leadership and the will to promote national interest against personal interest so
that the benefit of the masses can be upheld in the future.
Solar Power production

Solar energy is one of the cheapest means to produce electricity. Pakistan has an environmental
advantage for the production of solar power plants. The areas of the country like southern
Punjab, Sindh and a number of areas of Baluchistan can be utilized for establishing solar power
plants. In fact the current government has already established a solar plant in Bahawalpur but
similar projects are required to be taken up in the rest of the country as well.

Think Tanks and Academic Involvement

Pakistan government requires establishing think tanks to carry out extensive studies so as to
develop new energy sources. The development of a body of energy experts particularly
dedicated for evaluating the energy capabilities of the country can certainly help. The
involvement of authorities on the subject for generating expert opinion and evaluating
methods for dealing with energy crisis needs to be taken in the loop by the government.

Findings

 Energy plays a vital role in the development and economic progress of any county
however, Pakistan is far behind from the rest of the world in terms of energy security
 There have been no new successful mega power projects in the country since 1960s due
to lack of political harmony
 One of the major cause of power shortcoming in Pakistan is the lack of experts and
proper infrastructure
 Governments have mainly focused on short term projects
 lack of harmony among the provinces of Pakistan is also responsible for no new
successful project
 lack of understanding among the masses at social level regarding energy security and
management is also one of the major cause of energy crisis in the country
 lack of role of academia in management of energy security has not been addressed

Recommendations

Solar energy carries tremendous potential in case of Pakistan because Pakistan receives high
level of solar radiation as 1000 watts per square meter throughout the year. Since it’s the most
obviously feasible energy resource it can be converted into electricity with the help of
photovoltaic cells. This can help cater to most of domestic as well as industrial needs directly
during day time. The same can be used at night to power all sorts of appliances on domestic
level with the help of conservation of solar energy using specific cells during the day time. This
will surely relieve some pressure off of the current hydroelectric plants in the country. Solar
power if optimized and regulated properly carries exiting prospect of opening to establishing
the market to attract businesses and investments. For this government needs to devise
favorable policies to attract investors and progressing the projects regarding harnessing solar
energy further.

Geothermal energy is generated from the heat from Earth. It’s a sustainable and clean source of
energy. Geothermal energy is considered to be one of the most sophisticated and eco-friendly
sources of energy. Pakistan luckily possesses abundant potential concerning geothermal energy
and if utilized technically, it can be used as an excellent alternate source of energy provided
that we are economically equipped for exploiting it. Geothermal reservoirs are located in the
Northern areas of Pakistan but unfortunately, any subsequent efforts towards tapping these
resources are practically nonexistent.

Conclusion:

Keeping in view the evaluation of provided facts and opinions, management security in Pakistan
in the current world scenario shows the face of ghastly challenges that we are up against. The
world is at war out of the terror of the fact that fossil fuels and traditional modes of energy
resources are inevitably depleting, it is appalling how Pakistan is in complete disregard towards
channeling its resources to explore new and more feasible ways to conserve and secure its
energy assets. It can easily be accomplishes provided the fact that we switch our priorities
towards finding out ways to attain cleaner, renewable, readily available and much more
cheaper and sustainable energy resources in the long run. There is no time to stand blind
towards our energy security concerns that are being lost in the echoes of our constant state of
turmoil over terrorism and different stigmas surrounding our system. However, it is relieving
that the issue of energy security is now being addressed more vocally than ever and in those
new horizons is opening wide in the shape on projects that are pending and collaborations with
other countries that share the same concern as ours. Efforts are being made towards
developing more stable supply of energy and hopefully very soon we will be able to see a fine
change towards managing our energy security.

References and Bibliography

Alhajji, A. F. (2008). "What is energy security? Definitions and concepts." Oil, Gas & Energy Law Journal
(OGEL) 6(3).

British Petroleum, B. (2012). Statistical review of world energy.

Henry, M., et al. (2001). The OECD, globalisation and education policy, Elsevier Science.
Husain, T. (2010). "Pakistan’s Energy Sector Issues."

Latif, D. A. (2004). The Implementation of Energy Policy in Pakistan, Royal Book Company.

Petroleum, B. (2010). BP statistical review of world energy, London: British Petroleum.