Total 

greenhouse gas emissions, MtCO2e
Source: AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report)
900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2003

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

2020
2021
2000
2001
2002

2004
2005
2006

2019

2022
2023
Agriculture Business Energy supply Industrial processes LULUCF
Public Residential Transport Waste management
 t
2021
2022
2023
Reference scenario forecast

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Agriculture 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
Business 63 62 60 59 58 57 56
Energy suppl 65 67 60 56 54 55 58
Industrial pr 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
LULUCF -9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6
Public 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
Residential 67 67 68 68 68 69 70
Transport 115 114 112 110 108 106 104
Waste manag 16 16 15 15 15 15 14
 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
55 54 53 53 52 52 52 53
56 55 55 55 56 54 52 52
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
70 71 71 72 72 73 74 75
101 99 96 94 92 90 89 87
14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13

Chart Title
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Agriculture Business Energy supply

Industrial processes LULUCF Public
Residential Transport Waste management
2038 2039 2040
48 48 48
53 53 53
53 53 52
9 9 8
-2 -1 -1
9 9 9
75 76 77
86 85 84
13 13 13
BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
Reference Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices Reference
Economic Growth Reference Total greenhouse ga
Policies Reference Source: AR4 Global Warming Po
Rep
Total greenhouse gas emissions
900
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 80054 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 700
276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 600-1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 50089 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 40067 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 300
803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS 200

100
Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
0
1990 1991 1992 1993
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

1999

2004
2005
1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002
2003
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 Agriculture 213
Business Energy s
Industrial processes 19 17 16 Public Residential
15 Transpo
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

Total greenhouse gas emissions, MtCO2e
AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

1999

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2017
2018

2022
2023
1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002
2003

2015
2016

2019
2020
2021

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
riculture Business Energy supply 210
211 Industrial processes
212 LULUCF198 204 193 204 215
blic Residential Transport
17 Waste management
18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45 45 44 44 46 45 45 46
94 86 88 89 86 85 82 81
207 193 203 190 165 145 122 112
13 11 11 13 13 13 11 11
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
88 70 77 77 65 67 69 67
125 123 122 120 122 123 126 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
601 553 570 556 516 498 472 461
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
78 71 73 73 71 70 67 67
197 183 193 181 157 138 115 106
11 10 10 12 12 12 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
84 67 74 74 62 64 66 64
124 122 121 119 121 122 125 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
498 456 474 464 425 408 385 374

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 53 51 52

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 20 20 20 21 20 20 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 15 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 49 49 49 49 48 48 48
79 73 70 68 65 63 62 60
105 76 72 69 66 65 67 60
10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
69 66 67 67 67 67 67 68
124 120 119 118 116 115 114 112
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 15
451 411 403 395 388 384 383 372
518 505 502 499 495 433 430 427

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
66 60 58 57 55 54 53 53
98 69 65 62 59 58 60 54
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
66 64 65 65 65 65 65 65
123 119 118 116 115 114 112 110
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
366 328 322 316 310 308 308 299

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 14 14 14
52 49 48 48 47 47 46 45

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
59 58 57 56 55 54 53 53
56 54 55 58 56 55 55 55
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
68 68 69 70 70 71 71 72
110 108 106 104 101 99 96 94
15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13
365 361 360 361 356 352 350 348
424 422 400 398 396 393 391 348

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
52 51 51 51 50 50 49 49
50 48 50 53 50 49 49 50
9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -6
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69
108 106 105 103 100 97 95 93
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
293 290 290 292 288 285 284 283

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
52 52 52 53 53 53 53
56 54 52 52 53 53 52
9 9 9 9 9 9 8
-3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
72 73 74 75 75 76 77
92 90 89 87 86 85 84
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
348 345 343 342 344 344 344
348 345 343 342 344 344 344

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
49 49 50 50 50 51 51
51 48 47 46 47 47 47
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
70 71 72 72 73 74 75
91 89 87 86 85 84 82
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
283 280 279 278 280 280 280

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 11 11 11 11 11
42 42 41 41 41 41 41

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020

Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by s
List of scenarios
Click on the scenario name to go to the sheet containing the corresponding data:

Sheet Name Scenario Name Scenario Description

link Reference Scenario Based on central estimates of eco
advanced to allow robust estimate
link Low Prices Similar assumptions to reference s
link High Prices Similar assumptions to reference s
link Low Growth Similar assumptions to reference s
link High Growth Similar assumptions to reference s
link Existing Policies Contains central price and growth
link Baseline Policies Contains central price and growth

General notes on the tables
1 Annex M contains details of how w
2 These results reflect a set of assu
or preferred outcome for Governm

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:
[email protected]
ojections

reenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sectors)

g the corresponding data:

cenario Description
ased on central estimates of economic growth and fossil fuel prices. Contains all agreed policies where decisions on policy design are suffi
dvanced to allow robust estimates of impact (i.e. including “planned” policies). See annex D on policy savings for definitions of each policy i
imilar assumptions to reference scenario but with lower projected fossil fuel prices.
imilar assumptions to reference scenario but with higher projected fossil fuel prices.
imilar assumptions to reference scenario but with lower projected economic growth.
imilar assumptions to reference scenario but with higher projected economic growth.
ontains central price and growth assumptions but without planned policies included.
ontains central price and growth assumptions but only policies that existed before the Low Carbon Transition Plan of July 2009.

nnex M contains details of how we vary the growth and price inputs for the different scenarios above.
hese results reflect a set of assumptions about fossil fuel and carbon prices and costs. They do not reflect a desired
r preferred outcome for Government.
 isions on policy design are sufficiently
gs for definitions of each policy implementation status.

on Plan of July 2009.

BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
Low Fossil Fuel Price Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices Low
Economic Growth Reference
Policies Reference

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 54 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 89 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 67 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS

Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 213
Industrial processes 19 17 16 15
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
211 210 212 198 204 193 204 215
17 18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45 45 44 44 46 45 45 46
94 86 88 89 86 85 82 81
207 193 203 190 165 145 122 112
13 11 11 13 13 13 11 11
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
88 70 77 77 65 67 69 67
125 123 122 120 122 123 126 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
601 553 570 556 516 498 472 461
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
78 71 73 73 71 70 67 67
197 183 193 181 157 138 115 106
11 10 10 12 12 12 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
84 67 74 74 62 64 66 64
124 122 121 119 121 122 125 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
498 456 474 464 425 408 385 374

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 53 51 52

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 20 20 20 21 20 20 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 15 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 49 49 49 49 48 48 48
79 73 70 68 66 65 63 62
105 76 73 70 68 67 67 60
10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
69 66 67 69 70 70 71 71
124 120 121 120 119 118 116 115
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 15
451 411 406 401 397 393 390 380
518 505 505 503 501 440 437 434

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
66 60 58 58 56 56 55 54
98 69 66 63 62 60 61 53
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
66 64 65 67 68 68 68 68
123 119 120 119 117 116 115 113
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
366 329 325 322 319 317 316 306

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 14 14 14
52 49 48 48 47 47 46 45

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
60 59 58 57 56 55 54 54
57 56 57 62 61 60 61 62
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
71 72 72 73 74 74 75 75
113 111 109 107 104 102 99 97
15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13
374 370 370 373 369 364 364 362
432 429 408 406 403 400 398 362

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
53 53 52 52 52 51 51 50
51 49 51 56 56 54 56 56
9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -6
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
69 69 70 71 71 72 72 73
111 109 108 106 103 100 98 96
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
302 299 300 304 301 298 298 297

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
53 53 53 54 54 54 54
62 60 59 59 61 62 62
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
76 77 78 78 79 80 81
95 93 92 90 89 88 86
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
362 359 357 358 359 360 362
362 359 357 358 359 360 362

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
50 51 51 51 51 52 52
57 55 54 54 55 56 57
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
74 74 75 76 77 78 79
94 92 90 89 87 86 85
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
297 294 293 294 295 297 298

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 11 11 11 11 11
42 42 41 41 41 41 41

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
High Fossil Fuel Price Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices High
Economic Growth Reference
Policies Reference

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 54 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 89 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 67 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS

Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 213
Industrial processes 19 17 16 15
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
211 210 212 198 204 193 204 215
17 18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45 45 44 44 46 45 45 46
94 86 88 89 86 85 82 81
207 193 203 190 165 145 122 112
13 11 11 13 13 13 11 11
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
88 70 77 77 65 67 69 67
125 123 122 120 122 123 126 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
601 553 570 556 516 498 472 461
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
78 71 73 73 71 70 67 67
197 183 193 181 157 138 115 106
11 10 10 12 12 12 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
84 67 74 74 62 64 66 64
124 122 121 119 121 122 125 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
498 456 474 464 425 408 385 374

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 53 51 52

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 20 20 20 21 20 20 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 15 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 49 49 49 49 48 48 48
79 73 69 67 64 62 60 59
105 75 81 76 71 67 68 62
10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
69 66 66 64 63 64 64 64
124 120 116 114 112 111 110 108
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 15
451 410 407 395 385 376 375 365
518 504 498 492 487 425 422 419

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
66 60 58 56 54 53 52 51
98 69 74 69 64 60 62 56
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
66 64 64 62 61 61 61 62
123 119 114 113 111 110 108 106
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
366 328 327 315 307 300 300 292

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 14 14 14
52 49 48 48 47 47 46 45

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 21 20 20 20 20 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
57 56 56 55 54 53 52 51
53 52 52 53 49 48 48 49
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
64 65 65 66 67 67 68 68
106 104 102 100 98 95 93 91
15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13
353 349 348 347 341 337 335 334
416 414 392 390 388 385 383 334

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
51 50 50 49 49 49 48 48
47 46 46 47 44 43 43 43
9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -6
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
62 62 63 64 64 65 65 66
104 103 101 99 97 94 92 90
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
281 279 278 278 273 271 269 268

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
51 51 51 52 52 52 53
49 47 46 45 46 46 45
9 9 9 9 9 8 8
-3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
69 70 71 71 72 73 74
89 87 86 84 83 82 81
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
333 331 329 329 330 330 330
333 331 329 329 330 330 330

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
48 48 49 49 50 50 50
44 42 41 40 41 41 40
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
67 68 68 69 70 71 72
88 86 84 83 82 81 80
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
268 266 265 265 266 266 266

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 11 11 11 11 11
42 42 41 41 41 41 41

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
Low Economic Growth Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices Reference
Economic Growth Low
Policies Reference

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 54 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 89 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 67 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS

Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 213
Industrial processes 19 17 16 15
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
211 210 212 198 204 193 204 215
17 18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45 45 44 44 46 45 45 46
94 86 88 89 86 85 82 81
207 193 203 190 165 145 122 112
13 11 11 13 13 13 11 11
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
88 70 77 77 65 67 69 67
125 123 122 120 122 123 126 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
601 553 570 556 516 498 472 461
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
78 71 73 73 71 70 67 67
197 183 193 181 157 138 115 106
11 10 10 12 12 12 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
84 67 74 74 62 64 66 64
124 122 121 119 121 122 125 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
498 456 474 464 425 408 385 374

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 53 51 52

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 20 20 20 21 20 20 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 15 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 49 49 49 49 48 48 48
79 73 70 67 65 63 61 60
105 75 72 69 66 64 66 59
10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
69 66 67 67 67 67 67 68
124 120 119 117 116 115 113 111
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 15
451 410 402 395 387 382 381 370
518 504 502 498 495 433 430 426

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
66 60 58 57 55 54 53 52
98 69 65 62 59 58 60 52
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
66 64 65 65 65 65 65 65
123 119 118 116 115 113 112 110
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
366 328 321 315 309 306 306 296

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 14 14 14
52 49 48 48 47 47 46 45

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
58 57 56 55 54 53 52 52
55 53 54 57 55 54 54 54
9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4
8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
68 68 69 70 70 71 71 72
109 107 105 103 101 98 95 93
15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13
363 358 358 358 353 348 346 345
423 421 399 397 394 391 389 345

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
51 51 50 50 49 49 49 48
49 47 49 51 49 48 49 49
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -6
8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69
108 106 104 102 99 97 94 92
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
290 287 288 289 285 282 280 279

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
51 51 51 51 52 52 52
55 52 51 50 51 51 51
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
72 73 74 75 75 76 77
91 89 88 86 85 84 82
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
344 341 339 338 339 339 339
344 341 339 338 339 339 339

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
48 48 48 49 49 49 50
50 47 46 45 46 46 46
8 8 8 8 7 7 7
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
70 71 72 72 73 74 75
90 88 86 85 84 82 81
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
279 276 275 274 275 276 276

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 11 11 11 11 11
42 42 41 41 41 41 41

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
High Economic Growth Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices Reference
Economic Growth High
Policies Reference

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 54 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 89 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 67 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS

Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 213
Industrial processes 19 17 16 15
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
211 210 212 198 204 193 204 215
17 18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45 45 44 44 46 45 45 46
94 86 88 89 86 85 82 81
207 193 203 190 165 145 122 112
13 11 11 13 13 13 11 11
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
88 70 77 77 65 67 69 67
125 123 122 120 122 123 126 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
601 553 570 556 516 498 472 461
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
78 71 73 73 71 70 67 67
197 183 193 181 157 138 115 106
11 10 10 12 12 12 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
84 67 74 74 62 64 66 64
124 122 121 119 121 122 125 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
498 456 474 464 425 408 385 374

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 53 51 52

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 20 20 20 21 20 20 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 15 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 49 49 49 49 48 48 48
79 73 70 68 66 64 62 61
105 76 72 69 66 66 68 61
10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
69 66 67 67 67 67 67 68
124 120 119 118 116 115 114 112
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 15
451 411 403 396 389 385 384 374
518 505 502 499 496 434 431 428

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
66 60 58 57 56 55 54 53
98 69 66 62 59 59 61 54
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
66 64 65 65 65 65 65 65
123 119 118 116 115 114 113 111
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
366 329 322 317 311 309 310 301

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 14 14 14
52 49 48 48 47 47 46 45

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
59 58 58 57 56 55 54 54
57 55 57 59 57 55 55 56
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4
8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
68 68 69 70 70 71 71 72
110 108 107 105 102 100 97 95
15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13
367 363 363 364 359 355 352 351
425 423 402 400 397 394 392 351

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
53 52 52 51 51 51 50 50
51 49 51 53 51 50 50 51
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -6
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69
109 107 105 104 101 98 96 94
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
295 292 294 295 291 288 286 286

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
53 53 54 54 54 55 55
57 55 54 53 54 54 54
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
9 9 9 9 9 10 10
72 73 74 75 75 76 77
93 91 90 88 87 86 85
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
351 349 348 347 349 349 349
351 349 348 347 349 349 349

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
50 51 51 51 52 52 52
51 49 48 48 49 49 49
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
9 9 9 9 9 10 10
70 71 72 72 73 74 75
92 90 89 87 86 85 84
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
286 284 283 283 285 285 286

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 11 11 11 11 11
42 42 41 41 41 41 41

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
Existing Policies Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices Reference
Economic Growth Reference
Policies Existing

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 54 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 89 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 67 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS

Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 213
Industrial processes 19 17 16 15
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
211 210 212 198 204 193 204 215
17 18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45 45 44 44 46 45 45 46
94 86 88 89 86 85 82 81
207 193 203 190 165 145 122 112
13 11 11 13 13 13 11 11
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
88 70 77 77 65 67 69 67
125 123 122 120 122 123 126 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
601 553 570 556 516 498 472 461
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
78 71 73 73 71 70 67 67
197 183 193 181 157 138 115 106
11 10 10 12 12 12 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
84 67 74 74 62 64 66 64
124 122 121 119 121 122 125 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
498 456 474 464 425 408 385 374

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 53 51 52

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 20 20 20 21 20 20 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 13 12
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 15 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 49 49 49 49 48 48 48
79 73 70 68 65 64 62 60
105 76 73 69 66 66 67 61
10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
69 66 67 67 67 67 67 68
124 120 119 118 116 115 114 112
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 16
451 411 403 396 389 385 383 373
518 505 502 499 495 434 431 428

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
66 61 58 57 55 54 54 53
98 69 66 63 59 59 61 54
10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
66 64 65 65 65 65 65 65
123 119 118 116 115 114 112 110
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
366 329 322 316 311 308 308 299

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 15 14 14
52 49 48 48 47 47 46 46

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
59 58 57 56 55 54 53 53
57 55 57 60 60 62 61 61
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
68 68 69 70 70 71 71 72
110 108 106 104 101 99 96 94
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
366 363 362 364 361 360 357 355
425 423 401 399 396 394 392 355

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
52 52 51 51 50 50 50 49
51 49 51 54 55 56 56 56
9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -6
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69
108 106 105 103 100 97 95 93
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
294 291 292 294 292 292 290 289

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13
45 45 44 44 44 44 43 43

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
48 48 48 48 48 48 48
52 52 52 53 53 53 54
62 61 62 63 63 63 63
9 9 9 9 9 9 8
-3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
72 73 74 75 75 76 77
92 90 89 87 86 85 84
15 15 15 15 15 15 15
355 354 355 356 356 356 357
355 354 355 356 356 356 357

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
49 50 50 50 51 51 51
56 56 57 58 58 57 58
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
9 9 9 9 9 9 9
70 71 72 72 73 74 75
91 89 87 86 85 84 83
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
288 288 289 290 290 291 291

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

24 24 24 24 24 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
43 43 43 43 43 43 43

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BEIS 2019 Updated Energy & Emissions Projections
v1.0 14-10-2020
Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source (National Communication sec
Baseline Policies Scenario

Scenario assumptions
Fossil Fuel Prices Reference
Economic Growth Reference
Policies Baseline

Total greenhouse gas emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 54 54 53 52
Business 114 119 116 114
Energy supply 278 276 264 246
Industrial processes 60 58 52 49
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 80 89 86 91
Transport 128 126 129 130
Waste management 67 67 67 68
Total GHG emissions 794 803 781 761
Net carbon account 794 803 781 761
EU ETS allowances cancelled
Adjustment for EU ETS

Total CO2 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 6 7 6 6
Business 112 117 113 112
Energy supply 242 239 228 213
Industrial processes 19 17 16 15
LULUCF -2 -3 -4 -4
Public 13 14 15 14
Residential 78 87 84 88
Transport 125 124 126 127
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total CO2 emissions 596 603 587 572

Total CH4 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 30 30 30 30
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 34 35 34 32
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 2 2 1 2
Transport 1 1 1 1
Waste management 65 65 65 66
Total CH4 emissions 133 133 133 131

Total N2O emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 17 17 17 16
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 1 1 1 1
Industrial processes 24 24 20 16
LULUCF 2 2 2 2
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 2 1 2 2
Waste management 1 1 1 1
Total N2O emissions 48 48 43 39

Total HFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 14 15 16 16
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total HFCs emissions 14 15 16 17

Total PFCs emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 0 0 0 0
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 2 1 1 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total PFCs emissions 2 1 1 1

Total SF6 emissions
MtCO2e, AR4 Global Warming Potentials (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
1990 1991 1992 1993
Agriculture 0 0 0 0
Business 1 1 1 1
Energy supply 0 0 0 0
Industrial processes 0 0 0 0
LULUCF 0 0 0 0
Public 0 0 0 0
Residential 0 0 0 0
Transport 0 0 0 0
Waste management 0 0 0 0
Total SF6 emissions 1 1 1 1

Notes
1 We present the emissions projections included here on a source basis. i.e
The sectors are those from the UK's 7th National Communications to the 
http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom
2 For the transport category, emissions exclude those from international av
3 The geographic coverage of figures is the UK. It excludes the Crown dep
4 The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory and associated targets inc
We include an estimate of these within the totals.
5 We express emissions of non-CO2 GHGs as the amount of carbon dioxid
6 We include the emissions savings due to the Agricultural Action Plan in th
7 The UK Net Carbon Account (NCA) is fixed at the end of each CB period.
The traded sector component of the NCA for CB1 and 2 is based on the a
whereas for CB3, 4 and 5 it is based on the UK share of EU ETS allowan
See 'Box 1' of the main EEP report for further information on how the NCA
We do not show net carbon account figures beyond 2032 as to do this req
8 "Adjustment for EU ETS" was renamed from "EU ETS allowances purcha
9 Please note that these tables exclude emissions of N2O from agricultural

Please send any enquiries about this publication to:

[email protected]
ational Communication sectors)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

53 53 54 53 53 53 50 48
113 111 113 111 111 115 116 114
238 238 239 223 226 213 222 231
51 51 52 53 48 30 27 25
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
86 82 93 86 89 88 89 91
131 131 135 136 135 135 133 133
68 69 70 69 68 65 63 61
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710
752 745 766 741 738 709 708 710

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5
111 108 110 107 107 110 109 106
211 210 212 198 204 193 204 215
17 18 18 17 18 18 17 16
-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7
13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12
84 80 91 84 86 85 86 88
129 128 133 133 132 133 131 131
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
568 560 581 554 558 552 558 567

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25 26 25 23 21 18 16 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
66 67 68 68 67 64 62 59
124 126 125 123 119 114 109 104

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
16 14 14 14 15 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 39 39 39 39 29 29 27

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 18 18 20 15 6 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 19 20 23 20 11 10 11

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

ed here on a source basis. i.e. we have not re-allocated emissions from power stations and refineries to the demand sectors
ional Communications to the UNFCCC. See annex 5 of:
_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/19603845_united_kingdom-nc7-br3-1-gbr_nc7_and_br3_with_annexes_(1).pdf
de those from international aviation and shipping. This is consistent with the Inventory approach.
K. It excludes the Crown dependencies (Isle of Man & Channel Islands) and the UK Overseas Territories.
ory and associated targets include the net emissions arising from Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (LULUCF).

s the amount of carbon dioxide that would have an equivalent global warming effect. We base these figures on the IPCC's Fourth Assessm
e Agricultural Action Plan in the above tables from the start year of the policy (2011).
at the end of each CB period.
r CB1 and 2 is based on the actual UK share of EU ETS allowances,
UK share of EU ETS allowances assumed at the time of setting the respective budgets.
er information on how the NCA is calculated.
beyond 2032 as to do this requires an estimate for the UK's share of allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. This is currently
"EU ETS allowances purchased" for EEP 2019 to reflect the complex nature of the EU ETS where allowances can be banked for use in fu
ions of N2O from agricultural mobile machinery (about 52 ktCO2e in 2018). We will remedy this in EEP 2020.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44
104 108 108 109 107 106 104 91
229 235 232 232 236 230 224 200
22 22 21 21 19 21 19 12
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
87 88 90 86 83 79 81 78
136 135 137 136 136 137 132 126
60 56 52 49 46 43 38 34
690 697 692 684 676 663 643 587
690 697 692 684 676 663 616 595
1 1
20 -13

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
95 98 97 97 94 92 89 77
213 220 218 219 224 219 213 190
15 16 16 16 16 17 15 10
-8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 -11 -11
10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9
84 85 87 82 80 76 78 75
134 133 135 134 134 136 130 125
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
550 561 562 558 555 546 531 481

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

27 27 27 27 26 26 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 13 13 11 10 10 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
58 54 50 48 44 41 37 33
101 96 92 87 82 79 73 68

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 4 3 3 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25 25 25 24 23 23 22 21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 13 12 13 14 14 15 16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

mand sectors

exes_(1).pdf

he IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimates.

g System. This is currently unknown for this period.

can be banked for use in future periods as well as traded.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
43 44 44 44 46 47 51 51
97 88 92 95 92 89 82 82
163 176 200 183 178 176 153 129
13 13 12 13 13 13 12 12
-9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9
88 71 78 79 67 70 73 71
120 120 119 119 121 123 125 126
30 28 26 23 21 21 20 20
553 538 572 555 537 538 514 491
605 579 587 512 457 469 472 488
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
-7 -24 -14 44 59 29 1 -28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

4 4 4 4 5 6 10 10
81 74 77 79 77 73 66 67
153 168 191 175 170 168 146 122
11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10
-11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -11 -12
9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9
85 68 75 76 64 67 70 68
119 119 118 117 119 122 123 125
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
451 440 475 461 444 445 423 399

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19
64 61 60 56 54 54 52 53

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
21 21 21 21 22 22 22 23

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 15 16 16 16 16 15

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51
81 78 77 76 75 74 73 72
133 100 109 110 111 116 119 117
12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11
-10 -11 -11 -10 -10 -9 -9 -8
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
74 73 75 75 75 76 76 77
126 127 128 129 129 129 129 129
21 18 18 17 17 16 16 16
497 459 468 468 468 473 475 474
532 528 530 530 530 470 470 471

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
67 64 62 61 61 60 59 58
127 93 102 103 104 110 112 111
10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9
-12 -12 -12 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
71 70 72 72 72 73 73 74
125 126 127 127 127 128 128 128
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
406 371 380 381 382 387 390 389

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19 16 16 15 15 15 14 14
52 50 49 49 48 48 47 47

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 15 15 14 15 14 14 14

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51
72 71 71 70 70 69 69 69
109 108 107 107 104 107 108 110
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
-8 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 -4 -4
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
77 77 78 78 78 79 79 80
130 130 130 131 131 131 132 132
16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
465 466 464 466 463 468 470 473
471 472 453 454 455 456 457 473

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
57 57 56 55 55 54 54 54
102 102 100 101 98 102 103 104
9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8
-9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -6 -6 -5
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
74 74 75 75 75 76 76 77
128 129 129 129 130 130 131 131
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
381 381 380 382 379 384 386 388

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13
46 46 46 45 45 45 45 45

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
51 51 51 51 51 51 51
68 68 68 68 68 68 68
111 111 112 115 118 121 123
11 11 11 11 11 11 11
-3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0
10 10 10 10 10 10 10
80 81 81 82 82 83 83
133 133 133 134 134 135 135
15 15 15 15 15 15 15
475 476 479 483 487 491 495
475 476 479 483 487 491 495

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

10 10 10 10 10 10 10
53 53 53 53 53 53 53
105 105 107 110 113 115 117
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
-5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2
9 10 10 10 10 10 10
77 78 78 79 79 80 80
131 132 132 132 133 133 134
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
390 391 394 398 403 407 410

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

25 25 25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 13 13 13 13 13 13
45 45 45 45 45 45 45

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
23 23 23 23 23 23 24

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 14 14 14 14 14 14
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 15 16 16 16 15 16

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IMPORTANT DETAIL
In order to insert a suggestion that uses a PivotTable or formula, your data was organised in columns with a singl

Field1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Agriculture 54 54 53 52 53
Business 114 119 116 114 113
Energy suppl 278 276 264 246 238
Industrial pr 60 58 52 49 51
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2 -2
Public 13 14 15 14 13
Residential 80 89 86 91 86
Transport 128 126 129 130 131
Waste manag 67 67 67 68 68
Total GHG em 794 803 781 761 752
Net carbon a 794 803 781 761 752
ganised in columns with a single header row.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

53 54 53 53 53 50 48 48
111 113 111 111 115 116 114 104
238 239 223 226 213 222 231 229
51 52 53 48 30 27 25 22
-2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6
13 14 14 13 13 12 12 10
82 93 86 89 88 89 91 87
131 135 136 135 135 133 133 136
69 70 69 68 65 63 61 60
745 766 741 738 709 708 710 690
745 766 741 738 709 708 710 690
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
48 48 48 47 46 45 44 45
108 108 109 107 106 104 91 94
235 232 232 236 230 224 200 207
22 21 21 19 21 19 12 13
-6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9
10 11 11 10 9 10 9 10
88 90 86 83 79 81 78 88
135 137 136 136 137 132 126 125
56 52 49 46 43 38 34 30
697 692 684 676 663 643 587 601
697 692 684 676 663 616 595 605
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45 44 44 46 45 45 46 45
86 88 89 86 85 82 81 79
193 203 190 165 145 122 112 105
11 11 13 13 13 11 11 10
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
70 77 77 65 67 69 67 69
123 122 120 122 123 126 126 124
28 26 23 21 21 20 20 21
553 570 556 516 498 472 461 451
579 587 512 457 469 472 488 518
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
49 49 49 49 48
73 70 68 65 63
76 72 69 66 65
11 10 10 10 10
-10 -10 -10 -10 -9
8 8 8 8 8
66 67 67 67 67
120 119 118 116 115
18 18 17 17 16
411 403 395 388 384
505 502 499 495 433
IMPORTANT DETAIL
In order to insert a suggestion that uses a PivotTable or formula, your data was organised in columns with a singl

Field1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Agriculture 54 54 53 52 53
Business 114 119 116 114 113
Energy suppl 278 276 264 246 238
Industrial pr 60 58 52 49 51
LULUCF 0 -1 -1 -2 -2
Public 13 14 15 14 13
Residential 80 89 86 91 86
Transport 128 126 129 130 131
Waste manag 67 67 67 68 68
ganised in columns with a single header row.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

53 54 53 53 53 50 48 48
111 113 111 111 115 116 114 104
238 239 223 226 213 222 231 229
51 52 53 48 30 27 25 22
-2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6
13 14 14 13 13 12 12 10
82 93 86 89 88 89 91 87
131 135 136 135 135 133 133 136
69 70 69 68 65 63 61 60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
48 48 48 47 46 45 44 45
108 108 109 107 106 104 91 94
235 232 232 236 230 224 200 207
22 21 21 19 21 19 12 13
-6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9
10 11 11 10 9 10 9 10
88 90 86 83 79 81 78 88
135 137 136 136 137 132 126 125
56 52 49 46 43 38 34 30
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45 44 44 46 45 45 46 45
86 88 89 86 85 82 81 79
193 203 190 165 145 122 112 105
11 11 13 13 13 11 11 10
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8
70 77 77 65 67 69 67 69
123 122 120 122 123 126 126 124
28 26 23 21 21 20 20 21
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
49 49 49 49 48
73 70 68 65 63
76 72 69 66 65
11 10 10 10 10
-10 -10 -10 -10 -9
8 8 8 8 8
66 67 67 67 67
120 119 118 116 115
18 18 17 17 16