MINIMOS CUADRADOS

x y
K AÑO OFERTA xy x^2 Y (Y-y)
1 2011 1123.00 1123.0 1.0 84.4 -1038.6
2 2012 1527.28 3054.6 4.0 1252.8 -274.5
3 2013 2077.10 6231.3 9.0 2421.1 344.0
4 2014 2824.86 11299.4 16.0 3589.4 764.6
5 2015 3841.81 19209.0 25.0 4757.7 915.9
6 2016 5224.86 31349.1 36.0 5926.1 701.2
7 2017 7105.80 49740.6 49.0 7094.4 -11.4
8 2018 9663.89 77311.1 64.0 8262.7 -1401.2
36 33389 199318 204
10 2020 9431.0

1 MODELO MATEMATICO 𝒀=𝒂+𝒃(𝒙)

2 b 𝑏=(𝑛∑▒𝑋𝑌−∑▒𝑋 ∑▒𝑌)/(𝑛∑▒𝑋^2 −∑▒ 〖 (𝑋) 〗 ^2 ) 1168.32

a a=(𝑦 )/𝑛 −𝑏 𝑥/𝑛 -1083.88

3 MODELO 𝐘=−𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟑,𝟖𝟖+𝟏𝟏𝟔𝟖,𝟑𝟐(𝐤)
Y=-1083,88+1168,32(9) 9431.0
 (Y-y)^2 ERROR Chart Title
1078594.3 12000.00
75356.6 10000.00
118329.2 8000.00
584546.2 6000.00
756.520044
838927.9 4000.00
491684.9
2000.00
130.5
0.00
1963333.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5150903.2

((9*D13)-(A13*C13))/((9*E13)-(A13*A13))

((2021/9)-($F$18*(A13/9)))

Pronosticos
Y1 84.45 9 9431.02537 9431.02537
Y2 1252.77 10 10599.3478 10599.3478
Y3 2421.09 11 11767.6702 11767.6702
Y4 3589.41 12 12935.9926 12935.9926
Y5 4757.74 13 14104.315 14104.315
Y6 5926.06 14 15272.6375 15272.6375
Y7 7094.38 15 16440.9599
Y8 8262.70
Y9
Y10
Y11
Y12
Y13
Y14
Y15
MINIMOS CUADRADOS
x y
K AÑO OFERTA xy x^2 Y (Y-y)
1 2011 5489.00 5489.0 1.0 5344.7 -144.3
2 2012 5928.12 11856.2 4.0 5902.8 -25.3
3 2013 6402.37 19207.1 9.0 6460.9 58.5
4 2014 6914.56 27658.2 16.0 7019.0 104.4
5 2015 7467.72 37338.6 25.0 7577.1 109.4
6 2016 8065.14 48390.9 36.0 8135.2 70.1
7 2017 8710.35 60972.5 49.0 8693.3 -17.1
8 2018 9407.18 75257.5 64.0 9251.4 -155.8
36 58384 286170 204
10 2020 9809.5

1 MODELO MATEMATICO 𝒀=𝒂+𝒃(𝒙)

2 b 𝑏=(𝑛∑▒𝑋𝑌−∑▒𝑋 ∑▒𝑌)/(𝑛∑▒𝑋^2 −∑▒ 〖 (𝑋) 〗 ^2 ) 558.09

a a=(𝑦 )/𝑛 −𝑏 𝑥/𝑛 4786.63

3 MODELO 𝐘=−𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟑,𝟖𝟖+𝟏𝟏𝟔𝟖,𝟑𝟐(𝐤)
Y=-1083,88+1168,32(9) 9809.5
 (Y-y)^2 ERROR Chart Title
20814.9 10000.00
9000.00
640.1 8000.00
3427.5 7000.00
6000.00
10909.8 5000.00
92.6326224 4000.00
11963.8
3000.00
4907.8 2000.00
291.1 1000.00
0.00
24272.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
77227.2

((9*D13)-(A13*C13))/((9*E13)-(A13*A13))

((2021/9)-($F$18*(A13/9)))

Pronosticos
Y1 5344.73 9 9809.48026 9809.48026
Y2 5902.82 10 10367.5745 10367.5745
Y3 6460.91 11 10925.6688 10925.6688
Y4 7019.01 12 11483.763 11483.763
Y5 7577.10 13 12041.8573 12041.8573
Y6 8135.20 14 12599.9515 12599.9515
Y7 8693.29 15 13158.0458
Y8 9251.39
Y9
Y10
Y11
Y12
Y13
Y14
Y15
 PRODUCTO 1 PRODUCTO2
MATERIA PRIMA 10 5
INSUMOS 50 35
MANO DE OBRA 159 652
CIF 10 350
TOTAL COSTO PROD 229 1042
UTILIDAD ESPERADA 0.12 0.08
UTILIDA 27.48 83.36
PRECIO VENTA 256.48 1125.36
COSTO VARIABLE (ING) 5% 5%
IMPULSADORAS 6000 6000
TRANSPORTE 35 18
EGRESOS PAGO DE ALQUILERES 20000 42000
MATERIAL POP 2500 0
PROD 1
PERSONAL DE VENTAS 2% ING 2% ING
VENTAS INICIALES 35000 17000
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO 0% 0%

PROD 2
ITEM 1 2 3
CANTI P1 9431.03 10599.35 11767.67
CANTI P2 9809.48025911816 10367.574509673 10925.668760228
CANTI P3 0.00 0.00 0.00
ING P1 2418869.39 2718520.72 3018172.05
ING P2 11039196.70 11667253.65 12295310.60
ING P3 0.00 0.00 0.00
OTROS ING 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL INGRESOS 13458066.09 14385774.37 15313482.65
COSTO VAR 290264.33 326222.49 362180.65
IMPULSADORAS 1250.00 1250.00 1250.00
TRASNPORTE 9431.03 10599.35 11767.67
ALGUILERES 3000.00 3000.00 3000.00
MATERIAL POP 833.33 833.33 833.33
PERSONAL DE VTAS 48377.39 54370.41 60363.44
EGRESO P1 353156.07 396275.58 439395.09
COSTO VAR 772743.77 816707.76 860671.74
IMPULSADORAS 1416.67 1416.67 1416.67
TRASNPORTE 24523.70 25918.94 27314.17
ALGUILERES 5833.33 5833.33 5833.33
MATERIAL POP 833.33 833.33 833.33
PERSONAL DE VTAS 220783.93 233345.07 245906.21
EGRESO P2 1026134.74 1084055.10 1141975.46
TOTAL EGRESOS 1379290.81 1480330.68 1581370.55
FLUJO CAJA 12078775.28 12905443.7 13732112.1
 4 5 6
12935.99 14104.32 15272.64
11483.7630107831 12041.857261338 12599.951511893
0.00 0.00 0.00
3317823.39 3617474.72 3917126.06
12923367.54 13551424.49 14179481.43
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
16241190.93 17168899.21 18096607.49
398138.81 434096.97 470055.13
1250.00 1250.00 1250.00
12935.99 14104.32 15272.64
3000.00 3000.00 3000.00
833.33 833.33 833.33
66356.47 72349.49 78342.52
482514.60 525634.11 568753.62
904635.73 948599.71 992563.70
1416.67 1416.67 1416.67
28709.41 30104.64 31499.88
5833.33 5833.33 5833.33
833.33 833.33 833.33
258467.35 271028.49 283589.63
1199895.82 1257816.18 1315736.54
1682410.42 1783450.29 1884490.16
14558780.51 15385448.9 16212117.3
 MES VENTAS P1 VENTAS P2
1 1123.00 5489.0
2 1527.28 5928.1
3 2077.10 6402.4
4 2824.86 6914.6
5 3841.81 7467.7
6 5224.86 8065.1
7 7105.80 8710.4
8 9663.89 9407.2

PRODUCTO 1 PRODUCTO2
MATERIA PRIMA 10 5
INSUMOS 50 35
MANO DE OBRA 159 652
CIF 10 350
UTILIDAD ESPERADA 12% 8%
COSTO VARIABLE (ING) 5% 5%
IMPULSADORAS 6000 6000
TRANSPORTE 35 BS/UD 18 BS/UD
PAGO DE ALQUILERES 20000 42000
MATERIAL POP 2500 0
PERSONAL DE VENTAS 2% ING 2% ING
VENTAS INICIALES 35000 17000
5489.00 1123.00
5928.12 1527.28
6402.37 2077.10
6914.56 2824.86
7467.72 3841.81
8065.14 5224.86
8710.35 7105.80
9407.18 9663.89