Geology 111

Atlantic Hurricanes, Surface Temperatures

and Carbon Dioxide Levels

Introduction
Hurricanes are storm systems forming over the Atlantic and western Pacific oceans with winds
exceeding 64 knots (74 mph). These storms can severely impact the coastline causing major
damage as a result of high winds and the associated storm surge. Hurricanes are linked with
warming ocean temperatures, but the relationship is not well understood. For this assignment,
you will record the frequency and strength of hurricanes from 2011 to 2021 in the Atlantic Ocean,
compare this data with average surface and ocean temperatures in the northern hemisphere, and
relate these parameters to carbon dioxide concentrations over time period. In addition, you will
identify the month of greatest hurricane origination frequency. The objective of this assignment is
to locate, access, evaluate and synthesize the data in order to reach conclusions.

Atlantic Hurricane Data (30 pts)

Hurricane data is accessible at the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/.
Starting with the year 2011, record the name, wind speed, and the minimum atmospheric
pressure of each hurricane tracked in the Tropical Cyclones Report under the heading Atlantic,
Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico (DO NOT INCLUDE TROPICAL STORMS OR DEPRESSIONS).
Calculate the average wind speed and average minimum pressure for all these hurricanes, and
count the total number of hurricanes tracked during that year. Repeat every year until 2021.
Hurricane names (H or MH), maximum wind speeds (knots), and minimum atmospheric pressures
are listed in Table 1 of the Atlantic Annual Summary each year.

In the 2nd Table (Number of Hurricanes Originating Each Month), include the month when
hurricanes originate in the Atlantic Ocean Basin. This is noted in the Atlantic Annual Summary
under the heading “Date”. Only use the first date when hurricanes form and only include
hurricanes H or MH, not tropical storms. Then add up the total for each month. In the last row of
the table, calculate the percentage of hurricanes originating in each month over the period by
taking the total for each month and dividing by the total number of hurricanes. Information from
the year 2011 is given.
Year Hurricane Name, Max. Wind Speed (Knots) & Avg. Max. Avg. Total # of
Minimum Pressure (mb) for Each Hurricane Wind Speed Min. Hurricanes
(Knots) Pressure
(mb)
Irene (105 & 942) Philippe (80 & 976)
Katia (120 & 942) Rina (100 & 966)
2011 Maria (70 & 983) 94.3 963.3 7
Nate (65 & 994)
Ophelia (120 & 940)
Chris (75 & 974) Leslie (70 & 968)
Ernesto (85 & 973) Michael (100 & 964)
2012 Gordon (95 & 965) Nadine (80 & 978) 84.5 966.6 10
Isaac (70 & 965) Rafael (80 & 969)
Kirk (90 & 970) Sandy (100 & 940)
Humberto (80 & 979)
Ingrid (75 & 983)
2013 77.5 981 2

Arthur (85 & 973) Gonzalo (125 & 940)

Bertha (70 & 998)
2014 Cristobal (75 & 965) 88.3 969 6
Edouard (105 & 955)
Fay (70 & 983)
Danny (110 & 960)
Fred (75 & 986)
2015 Joaquin (135 & 931) 98.75 964,25 4
Kate (75 & 980)

Alex (75 & 981) Nicole (120 & 950)

Earl (75 & 979) Ottoc (100 & 975)
2016 Gaston (105 & 955) 98.5 965 7
Hermine (70 & 981)
Matthew (145 & 934)
Franklin (75 & 981) Katia (90 &972)
Gert (95 & 962) Lee (100 & 962)
2017 Harvey (115 & 937) Maria (150 & 908)
Irma (155 & 914) Nate (80 & 981) 109.5 951.4 10
Jose (135 & 938) Ophelia (100 &
959)
Beryl (70 & 991) Leslie (80 & 968)
Year Hurricane Name, Max. Wind Speed (Knots) & Avg. Max. Avg. Total # of
Minimum Pressure (mb) for Each Hurricane Wind Speed Min. Hurricanes
(Knots) Pressure
(mb)
Chris (90 & 969) Michael (140 &
2018 919) 95.6 960.5 8
Florence (130 & 937) Oscar (95 & 966)
Helene (95 & 967)
Isaac (65 & 967)
Barry (65 &993) Pablo (70 & 977)
Dorian (160 & 910)
2019 Humberto (110 & 950) 105.83 955.16 6
Jerry (90 & 976)
Lorenzo (140 & 925)
Hanna (80 & 973) Paulette (90 &965) Epsilon (100 &
952)
2020 Isaias (80 & 986) Sally (95 & 966) Zeta (100 & 970)
Laura (130 & 937) Teddy (120 & 945) Eta (130 & 922) 98.21 960.64 14
Marco (65 & 991) Gamma (65 & 978) Iota (135 & 917)
Nana (65 & 994) Delta (120 & 953)
Elsa (75 & 991) Nicholas (65 & 988)
Grace (105 & 967) Sam (135 & 927)
2021 Henri (65 & 987) 97.85 963.14 7
Ida (130 & 929)
Larry (110 & 953)

Number of Hurricanes Originating Each Month

Year Dec-June July August September October November

2011 0 0 2 4 1 0

2012 1 0 5 2 2 0

2013 0 0 0 2 0 0

2014 0 1 2 1 2 0

2015 0 0 2 1 0 1

2016 1 0 3 1 1 1
 2017 0 0 4 4 2 0

2018 0 2 1 3 2 0

2019 0 1 1 3 1 0

2020 0 2 2 4 5 1

2021 1 0 3 3 0 0

Total 3 6 23 24 15 3

Percentage 3% 6% 23% 24% 15% 3%

Average Surface Temperature Data (5 pts)

The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) is an estimate of global surface temperatures.
The data for average surface temperatures are deviations from the average temperatures
measured between 1951-1980. Negative numbers indicate below average temperatures from that
time period, while positive numbers indicate temperatures above the average. For example, in
2011 the average surface temperature was +74 in the Northern Hemisphere, which indicates
mean annual temperature in 2011 was on average was 0.74 °C higher than between 1951 to 1980.
Record the January-December (J-D) annual mean temperature from 2011 to 2021.

The NASA surface temperature data for the Northern Hemisphere is located at NASA at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ . Scroll down to data under the heading:

Combined Land-Surface Air and Sea-Surface Water Temperature Anomalies (Land-Ocean

Temperature Index, L-OTI).
● Northern Hemisphere-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means, 1880-present,
updated through most recent month: TXT

Select the TXT file link and record mean annual temperatures (J-D) in the table below.
Year January-December Year January-December
Temperature Change (0.01°C) Temperature Change (0.01°C)
2011 +74 2017 +117
2012 +81 2018 +103
2013 +80 2019 +121
2014 +92 2020 +135
2015 +118 2021 +114
2016 +130
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels (5 pts)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors greenhouse gas levels
around the world. A monitoring site at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has been recording
carbon dioxide (CO2) level since the late 1950s. Go to the NOAA website at
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/

Click on the link Products near the top heading. Then click on the link Trends in CO2, CH4, N20, SF6,
and then click on the tab link Data. Finally, click on the link Mauna Loa CO2 annual mean data.
This will give you mean CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa since 1959. Record these measurements
from 2011 to 2021. Round to the nearest whole number. The first year is given to you.

Year CO2 Concentration (ppm) Year CO2 Concentration (ppm)

2011 392 2017 406
2012 394 2018 409
2013 397 2019 412
2014 399 2020 414
2015 401 2021 416
2016 404
Data Analyses (20 pts)
Create a double line graph to show how each of the following variables change from 2011-2021.
You can also create these graphs in Excel, Sheets or another graphing program. Just be sure to
create a secondary vertical axis and submit the graphs with your assignment. The numbers at the
top and bottom of the vertical (Y-) axes are given, as well as the number on the left and right side
of the horizontal (X-) axis. Be sure to include axes labels.

Graph 1: CO2 Concentration vs. Average Surface Temperature Change from 2011-2021
(Left Y-Axis) (Right Y-Axis) (X-Axis)
Top at 420 (ppm) Top at 140 (0.01 °C) Left 2011
Bottom at 390 (ppm) Bottom at 70 (0.01 °C) Right 2021

Graph 1 Grid Paper Below

Graph 2: Hurricane Wind Speed vs. Hurricane Minimum Atmospheric Pressure from 2011-2021
(Left Y-Axis) (Right Y-Axis) (X-Axis)
Top at 110 (knots) Top at 990 (mb) Left 2011
Bottom at 70 (knots) Bottom at 950 (mb) Right 2021

Graph 2 Grid Paper Below

Graph 3: Average Surface Temperature Change vs. Hurricane Frequency from 2011-2021
(Left Y-Axis) (Right Y-Axis) (X-Axis)
Top at 140 (0.01 °C) Top at 14 (# of Hurricanes) Left 2011
Bottom at 70 (0.01 °C) Bottom at 0 (# of Hurricanes) Right 2021

Graph 3 Grid Paper Below

Graph 4: Bar scale displaying monthly hurricane totals from 2011-2021. Your categories should
include December-June, July, August, September, October, and November. The vertical axis should
include the total number of hurricanes originating for that period.
Conclusions (20 pts)

1. How does CO2 concentration and average surface temperature change over the time
period? (Increase, Decrease, Constant, No Pattern) Does your data indicate a relationship
between atmospheric CO2 concentration and average surface temperature? Please explain
how you arrived at this conclusion.

2. How does average maximum wind speed and average minimum atmospheric pressure
change over the time period? (Increase, Decrease, Constant, No Pattern) Does your data
indicate a relationship between wind speed and atmospheric pressure? Please explain how
you arrived at this conclusion.

3. How does the number of hurricanes change over the time period? (Increase, Decrease,
Constant, No Pattern). How would you expect the number of hurricanes to change given
the change in average surface temperature over the time period?

4. Using your data from 2011 to 2021, in what month does the highest frequency of
hurricanes originate? What percentage of hurricanes originate in the top three months?
You are planning a 2-week trip to the North Carolina coast and are renting a beach house
right on the shore. You must pay the rental in advance and there are no refunds. How
might this information influence the timing of your trip? Please explain how you arrived at
this conclusion.