Tilahun (2021) - Childhood Poverty Family and Adult Poverty
Tilahun (2021) - Childhood Poverty Family and Adult Poverty
Tilahun (2021) - Childhood Poverty Family and Adult Poverty
https://doi.org/10.1080/10875549.2021.2010860
ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
This study investigates the extent to which childhood poverty Poverty; childhood poverty;
experience and family variables affect the persistence of poverty adult poverty; family effects
in adulthood. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data
where subjects are observed over multiple years both as chil-
dren and adults. We examine the extent to which the persis-
tence of poverty after age 18 and age 25 are predicted by
childhood poverty experience. We find that the proportion of
time spent in poverty in adulthood increases with the propor-
tion of time spent in poverty in childhood after controlling for
other personal, family, place and time-period effects. The mag-
nitude of the effect of childhood poverty on adult outcomes
gets smaller but remains significant when examining poverty
experiences after age 25. We also find that there are unobserved
but strong family level effects that either increase or reduce the
chances of adulthood poverty substantially for some extended
family units.
Introduction
In 2015, the U.S. Census bureau estimated the official poverty rate at 13.5%
and that among children to be 19.7%. Roughly half of these children live in
extreme poverty with incomes below 50% of the federal poverty threshold.
A variety of policies have been deployed to combat poverty and its root causes
since the War on Poverty was officially declared more than 50 years ago.
Despite these efforts, the rapid reduction in the overall poverty rate that
occurred through the 50s and 60s leveled off in the 70s. The poverty rate has
been fluctuating in the range of 10–15% since (Semega et al., 2017). By one
estimate, 50% of Americans will have experienced a year in poverty by age 65;
among black Americans, these numbers are even higher, with more than 75%
spending some time in their life below the poverty line (Rank & Hirschl, 1999).
Though much of this poverty experience is transient, for a segment of the
population, poverty is persistent. In this paper, we examine the effects of
persistent childhood poverty on poverty incidence in adulthood.
CONTACT Nebiyou Tilahun [email protected] University of Illinois at Chicago, 412 S. Peoria St., Rm. 231,
Chicago, IL 60607
© 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
2 N. TILAHUN ET AL.
Becker (1981), Wilson (1987), discussed above, along with those of Anderson
(1978), Mead (1986), and Murray (2008), who focus on the role of welfare
dependence. They find substantial evidence of intergenerational persistence.
We are interested in further exploring the effects of childhood poverty
experiences on adult poverty outcomes. Using the PSID data, we examine
how the percentage of time that a child was in poverty affects the persistence of
poverty once they become an adult. While the analysis in Corcoran and
Adams et al. (1997) uses a sample from the PSID who were children in 1968,
over 50% of the sample used in this analysis were born after 1968 with the
youngest being born in 1989. The subjects in the previous study have gotten
older and we can test if poverty outcomes have changed since. The inclusion of
younger cohorts also allows us to test if there are period effects related to the
economy that have affected adult poverty outcomes. In particular, we test the
following hypotheses (i) that the persistence of poverty in childhood, as
measured by the percentage of childhood years one spends in poverty, directly
affects the percentage of years spent in poverty in adulthood, (ii) that there are
period effects, which signal conditions of the overall economy, that can
moderate the intensity of adulthood poverty experiences, and, (iii) that
extended familial factors (e.g., family network effects, etc.) moderate the
probability of better outcomes for members of the same family. We test
these while controlling for individual level variables such as involvement in
crime and mother’s education, and place level variables for the neighborhood
(Census tract). It should be emphasized that the PSID provides us a unique
data set for testing extended-family effects.
In the following sections, we examine the extent to which adulthood poverty
experiences are related to the persistence of poverty in childhood using data for
individuals observed multiple times both in childhood and adulthood. Poverty
persistence in adulthood is measured two ways, one where the period of early
adulthood between the ages of 18–24 is included and another where this period
is excluded, in order to investigate if the relationship between adulthood
poverty and childhood poverty changes with age. In addition to childhood
poverty experience, the analysis also controls for other variables that may affect
adulthood poverty, including observed personal, parental and family variables,
unobserved extended family level effects, tract-level income variables that
capture the neighborhood and urban context of childhood, and time-period
effects that serve as proxies for broader economic conditions as the children
reach the age where they can enter labor force.
price differences across metropolitan areas and time. For years that the IRPD
was not published, we estimate it by using the area’s or regional Consumer
Price Index (CPI) for that year and for 2011 along with the BEA’s IRPD
numbers for 2011. The adjustment penalizes incomes in more expensive
areas, so an income of $25,000 in IL in 2011 would be adjusted to $23,946
when the family lives in Chicago, IL and to $27,654 in Springfield, IL.
federal poverty threshold (150PT) at all times that they were surveyed. The
percentage reporting no poverty in adulthood shrinks as the intensity of
childhood poverty increases.
In Figure 2, we look at the persistence of poverty excluding the period of
early adulthood between the ages of 18–24. The percentage reporting no-
poverty rose for each of the childhood poverty incidence categories. For
example, among those who experienced childhood more than 2/3rds of the
time, 25% reported no-poverty post age 25 while only 6% reported no-poverty
post age 18. The percentage who experience poverty 2/3rd or more of the times
in adulthood also drops from 42% to 35%. Those who experienced no poverty
in childhood also become even less likely to experience it – 72% have no
poverty experience after 25 as compared to 60% when 18–25 is included.
Persistent adulthood poverty (> 2/3rd of observations) is fairly rare for
those who grow up in no-poverty households. Only 2–5% of the no-childhood
-poverty group experience persistent poverty in adulthood depending on the
age cutoff. In contrast, 35–42% of those who grew up in persistent poverty
experience persistent adulthood poverty. Those who experience no poverty in
childhood are more likely to experience no poverty in adulthood, while those
who experience poverty at higher rates in childhood also have a higher rate of
poverty in adulthood. Childhood poverty appears more strongly associated
with the young adult years, however, the general connection between child-
hood poverty and adult poverty remains even after age 25.
Further, even though the percentage experiencing no-poverty in adulthood
increases with age, much of this gain is achieved through a reduction in those
who experience poverty less than a third of the time. Those that were deeply in
poverty don’t see as much change overall. Figure 3 shows the percentage of
people falling in each poverty category above age 18 and 25. The percent of all
adults who experience no-poverty rises from 36% at age 18+ to 52% at age
Individual level factors that we control for are the persistence of childhood
poverty, race, age at last observation, sex, highest education achieved, highest
education achieved by the respondent’s mother, whether the person was ever
married and whether the person was ever jailed. The models for adulthood
poverty after 18 (Pa18) and adulthood poverty after 25 (Pa25) are given in
Table 2.
Table 2. Random effects models with clustered errors for the persistence of poverty in adulthood.
Age 18 plus Age 25 plus
Coefficient Coefficient
% times in poverty before age 18 PB18 0.28 *** 0.18 ***
Education level = High school EdHS −15.98 *** −18.76 ***
Education level > High school EdGHS −25.15 *** −30.08 ***
Sex (1 = Male) Sex −7.10 *** −7.81 ***
Black (1 = Yes) Black 7.77 *** 8.38 ***
Ever jailed (1 = Yes) Jail 10.49 *** 14.17 ***
Mother’s ed = High school MomHS −4.76 *** −4.72 ***
Mother’s ed > High school MomGHS −4.06 *** −2.94
Ever married Marr −9.38 *** −13.37 ***
Age (at last observation) Age −0.13 *** −0.13 **
Tract average income TIB18 −0.07 *** −0.08 ***
Constant Constant 54.50 *** 62.89 ***
Number of observations 4616 4241
Number of families 1,497 1,448
Family random effect std. deviation (σu) 7.84 7.21
Error standard deviation (σe) 20.81 27.48
ρ (fraction of variance due to u_i) 0.12 0.06
R-square: within 0.15 0.11
between 0.56 0.39
overall 0.50 0.34
Significance: *** < 0.01, ** < 0.05
10 N. TILAHUN ET AL.
Figure 4. Family random effects estimates in the 18+ and 25+ models.
about 1.9% of families in our data. Large family effects appear more
pronounced at the right side of the distribution where individuals in the
same extended family are unable to escape the cycle of poverty.
As we discuss below, childhood poverty, which is determined based on the
income of the parents of the child, is an important variable in predicting
poverty in adulthood. The extended/multigenerational family effect, when pre-
sent, combines both multigenerational and lateral extended family similarities
in poverty outcomes. Gans (2011) argues that little is known about multi-
generational poverty but hypothesizes its presence. The findings here suggest
that multigenerational/extended family impacts appear to be strong only for
some families. The reasons for these cannot be determined from this analysis.
Childhood poverty
Childhood poverty intensity is measured as a function of parenal income
when the analysis person was below the age of 18. In contrast to the
extended/multigenerational poverty impacts, childhood poverty intensity is
a strong predictor of adult poverty. There is 0.28% and 0.18% increase in
poverty in adult, after 18 and 25 respectively, for each percent increase in
poverty experience in childhood after controlling for family and other
individual socio-demographic variables. The effect of the association of
childhood poverty gets smaller when the young adult years are excluded.
Never the less, even controlling for variables such as education, the variable’s
importance persists.
JOURNAL OF POVERTY 11
Individual variables
Both models show a strong effect of education. Those who completed high
school had a 16%-18% lower rate of adulthood poverty depending on the
model. Those whose education level was above the high school level had
a 25%-30% lower estimate of poverty incidence in adulthood. Mother’s educa-
tion level was also an important variable in explaining adulthood poverty.
Those whose mothers completed at least high school reported adulthood
poverty rates that were on the order of 4–5% less than those whose mother’s
education was below high school. Large differences were not observed between
those whose mothers had completed high school or had gone beyond that
level.
Race and sex were also important in explaining differences in adulthood
poverty. Black respondents reported about 8% higher rate of poverty in
adulthood than White respondents. The rate of adulthood poverty for men
was lower by about 7%. Those who had been married at least once in adult-
hood had lower incidences of adulthood poverty, likely arising from the
presence of multiple earners during the period the marriage is in effect. The
effect is larger when we consider adulthood poverty after age 25 (a 9% vs. 13%
reduction). Because our data is aggregated over multiple years, we cannot
discern if this effect persists in cases where marriages dissolve. However, it
appears that people who get married at least once on average experience
poverty less than those that don’t. Those who had been jailed at least once
had a 10% (14% for 25+ model) higher incidence of poverty in adulthood than
those that have not.
Finally, age at last observation was an important variable in both models.
The proportion of time in poverty declines by 0.13% for each additional year
in age at last observation.
We had also hypothesized that the period at which one starts to participate
in the labor force maybe an important predictor of adulthood poverty experi-
ences. However, in both models the decade in which the respondent turned 18
were statistically insignificant.
Discussion
The foregoing analyses highlights the influence of extended family on the adult
poverty experience of children. Across the families in this data, there is
considerable variation in the family-effect on poverty incidence in adulthood.
Despite the branching of families in successive generations in the PSID, the
models suggest that for some families there remain common factors that either
increase or dampen the persistence of poverty in adulthood. While most
family effects were not statistically different from zero, there were more
families in the data where the family effect amplified poverty experiences
than dampened it. It suggests that members of some families tend to sink
together suggesting strong multigenerational or network effects that lead to
collectively similar experiences.
Second, there is a clear relationship between the persistence of childhood
poverty experience and adult poverty experience. Higher incidence of poverty
in childhood, a circumstance not in the control of the child, continues to
negatively impact outcomes into adulthood, and particularly so during the
period of early adulthood. While it is encouraging that the impact of child-
hood poverty appears to decline with age, it does not disappear.
Third, the results are consistent with a range of earlier studies that identify
the effects of education and avoiding crime in reducing the incidence of
poverty in adulthood. While the models reinforce the importance of education
in reducing the incidence of poverty in adulthood, poverty outcomes show
substantial difference by race even when individuals are at the same education
level. Blacks at the same level of education as Whites tended to experience
poverty more frequently in adulthood than whites. Factors including racial
bias, discriminatory practices in workplaces, and differing levels of social
capital by race may account for some of these differences. Variables such as
mother’s education, marriage, and sex were also important predictors of
adulthood poverty experiences.
Fourth, our examination of neighborhood place variables shows mixed
results. We find that after controlling for extended family and other individual
effects, the neighborhood conditions in an area where one grew up (measured
as the income in the census tract) was associated with modest declines in adult
poverty experience. Finally, time period effects do not appear to be important.
While our analysis uses the 150% of federal poverty line as a measure of
economic well-being, the metric has several shortcomings (National Research
Council, 1995). The thresholds, set as a multiple of food consumption
JOURNAL OF POVERTY 13
estimates in the 1960s and adjusted for inflation, may be too low given the
structure and needs of today’s families. The measure is also criticized for not
taking into account cost of living difference across places. While we have used
150% of the federal threshold and accounted for price differences across place
in our analysis, these may not be sufficient to capture all families who
experience poverty. Further, more expansive definitions of wellbeing are also
possible that incorporate social, political and other forms of disadvantage (see
for example, Madanipour et al., 2015).
These findings suggest that interventions are possible to lower the persis-
tence of poverty in adulthood. Some of these can be focused on income
transfers which can reduce the years lived in poverty in childhood, which in
turn may lower the incidence of adult poverty experiences, and have ripple
effects on successive generations. Second, there is a clear effect of education,
and programs that seek to address high school completion can have sub-
stantial impact on the persistence of poverty in adulthood. In conjunction
with this, there is a need to address the underlying causes that lead to
inequality in poverty outcomes by race even when education levels are the
same. Finally, the results also suggest that further examination is needed for
why some extended families tend to sink together in terms of adulthood
poverty experiences.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Funding
This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [ES/L011921/1].
ORCID
Nebiyou Tilahun http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9127-4581
Joseph Persky http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2183-9019
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