MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

CHAPTER 7 PROBABILITY
SUBTOPIC 7.1 PROBABILITY

LEARNING OBJECTIVE a) Define the concept of experiments, outcomes, events, sample

spaces and random selections
b) State the basic laws of probability
c) Find the probability of an event
d) Find the probabilities of the intersections and union of two events
e) Find conditional probability and independent events
(solve probability problems using Venn diagrams, tree diagrams
and contingency table)

(a) DEFINITION OF BASIC TERMS

1) Random experiment is a process leading to at least two possible outcomes with uncertainty as
to which they will occur.

2) Outcomes are all possible results of the experiment.

3) A sample space is a set of all outcomes of an experiment.

4) An event is a set of one or more outcomes.

EXAMPLE 1

EXPERIMENT OUTCOMES SAMPLE SPACE EVENT

A = event of getting
ROLL A 1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 S = {1, 2,3, 4,5,6} odd
DIE A = {1,3,5}

A = event of getting a
TOSS TWO HH , TT , HT , TH S = {HH , TT , HT , TH } head and a tail
COINS A = {HT , TH }

A = event of getting
TAKE A
Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail} pass
DRIVING
TEST A = {Pass}

| 1
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

EXAMPLE 2
List a sample space when two dice are tossed / a die tossed twice.
Hence, find :
a) Total number of outcomes, n(S)
b) No. of outcomes getting the sum of two numbers is 6
c) No. of outcomes getting the sum of two numbers is a multiple of 5

(b) BASIC LAWS OF PROBABILITY EXAMPLE 3

Two dice are tossed,
a) Find the total number of outcomes, n(S)
➢ For any event, 0 < P(A) < 1 Hence, find the probability of
b) the sum of two numbers is a multiple of 5
➢ If P(A) = 0, the event is impossible c) the sum of two numbers are prime numbers

➢ If P(A) = 1, the event is possible event / sure

event EXAMPLE 4
Two dice are rolled. Find the probabilities of
➢ compliment event P(A') = 1− P(A) a) Obtaining the sum of 8
b) Obtaining the highest sum is 5
➢ Additional rule
EXAMPLE 5
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)-P(A and B) A bag contains 20 pebbles, 7 of which are yellow,
and the rest are red. A pebble is selected at random
from the bag. What is the probability that a yellow
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)
pebble will be selected?

EXAMPLE 6
(c) THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT What is the probability of getting non-odd
numbers when a die is tossed?
n( A)
P( A) =
n( S )
EXAMPLE 7
What is the probability that 2 will not appear when
a die is tossed?

| 2
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

(d) Probabilities of the intersections and union of two events using Venn Diagrams

A B A B A B

( A) ( A  B) ( A  B)

A B A B A B

( A) ' ( A  B) ' ( A  B) '

DE MORGAN RULE

( A  B ) ' = A ' B ' ( A  B ) ' = A ' B '

| 3
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

EXAMPLE 8

Two events A and b are such that P(A) = 0.4 , P(B) = 0.7 , and P(AB) = 0.9. Find :

a) P(A’)
b) P(AB)
c) P(A’B)

EXAMPLE 9

1 5 1
Given A and B are two events where P ( A ) = , P ( B ) = , P( A  B ) = . Find
3 9 6
a) P(A  B)
b) P(A  B')
c) P( A'B')

d) P( A'B')

EXAMPLE 10
If a class with 100 students of whom 20 are studying mathematics, 15 are studying chemistry and 8 are studying
mathematics and chemistry. If we choose a student at random, find the probability the student:
a) studies Mathematics
b) studies both Mathematics and Chemistry
c) studies either Mathematics or Chemistry
d) studies neither Mathematics nor Chemistry
(e)
(i) MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS EXAMPLE 11
❖ No intersection between two events
C and D are two events where P(C) = 0.1, P(D) = 0.2
❖ Either A or B, but not both
and P(CD) = 0.3.
❖ that cannot occur together
a) Determine whether C and D are two mutually
❖ A  B = , P(A  B ) =0
exclusive events

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) b) Find P(C’D’)

EXAMPLE 12

A bag contains 4 red marbles, 2 white marbles and 8

yellow marbles. What is the probability that a marble
picked from the bag randomly is either a red or a white?
Answer: 3
7

| 4
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

(ii) EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS EXAMPLE 13

Event A and event B are two exhaustive events if : A statistical experiment has eight equally likely

union of the sets covers the whole of the sample outcomes that are denoted by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.

space, n(AB) = n(S)  P(AB) = 1 Let events A = {5, 7}, B = {1 , 2, 5} and

C = {1, 4, 6, 8}.

a) Are events A and B mutually exclusive?

b) Are events A and C mutually exclusive?

c) Find P(AC)

d) Draw the Venn diagram

e) Are the events A, B and C exhaustive?

EXAMPLE 14

Determine whether the events are exhaustive

events. a) S = {1, 2, 3, 4}, A = {1,2}, B = {3,4}

b) S = {1, 2, 3, 4}, A = {1,2}, C = {4}

Answer : a) exhaustive event, b) not exhaustive

| 5
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

(iii) CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Example 15:
Conditional Probability is the probability that an A and B are two events such that
event will occur given that another event has
already occurred.
Find:
Definition: (a)P (A  B) (b)P (A  B’)
For events A and B in an arbitrary sample space S,
we define the conditional probability of A given B (c) P(B|A) (d) P (A| B ')
by:
P ( A  B)
P( A B) = , P (B)  0 (e) the probability that exactly one of A or B will
P( B) occur.
Example 16:
P( A B) is read “the probability of A, given B” Thirty Mathematics professors out of 100 who are
examined were found to be overweight (W). Ten of
them had high blood pressure (H). Only four of the
professors who were not overweight had high blood
pressure.
Find the probability that a Mathematics professor will
not have high blood pressure if he is not overweight.
Example 17:
In a college, 12% of the students are left-handed,
15% of the students are curly haired and 3% are both
left-handed and curly haired.
(a) Given that a student curly haired, find the
probability that the student is left-handed.
(b) What is the probability that a left-handed student
also curly haired?

Tree Diagram Example 18:

To find the probabilities, you must multiply along A bag contains 8 balls, 5 yellow and 3 red. A ball is
the branches and add between the branches. drawn at random without replacement. Another draw
is made. What is the probability:
(a) that both balls are red?
(b) that the balls are not of the same colour?
(c) The second ball drawn is yellow.

Example 19:
A box contains 4 red marbles and 7 white marbles. A
bag contains 3 red marbles, 2 white marbles and 4
yellow marbles. A fair coin is tossed and if a head is
obtained, a marble is selected at random from the
box. If a tail is obtained, a marble is selected at
random from the bag.
P( A)  P( B A) = P( A  B) a) Construct a tree diagram for the experiment.
b) Find the probability that
(i) a red marble is selected.
(ii) a yellow marble is selected.
c) Given that the marble drawn is white, find the
probability that it was originally in the bag.

| 6
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

(iv) INDEPENDENT EVENTS

If events A and B are independent, the occurrence of Example 20:

event A does not affect the probability of the Two events A and B are independent.
occurrence of event B Given: P (A) = 0.4 and P (B) = 0.25
Calculate:
Thus, (a) P ( A  B ) (b) P ( A  B )

P( A B) = P ( A) and P( B A) = P ( B )
Example 21:
A, B and C are three events such that A and B are
independent whereas A and C are mutually exclusive.
So, we arrive at the ‘and’ rule for the independent Given
events P ( A) = 0.4; P ( B ) = 0.2; P ( C ) = 0.3; P ( B  C ) = 0.1
Find
(a) P ( A  B ) (b) P (C B ) (c) P (C A ')
P ( A  B ) = P ( A) • P ( B )
Example 22:
A Mathematics puzzle is given to three students,
Munir, Mazlan and Merlini.
Remark:
From the past experience, known that the
If A and B are independent events, then (A and B’),
probabilities Munir, Mazlan and Merlini will get the
(A’ and B) and (A’ and B’) are independent events
correct solutions are 0.65, 0.6 and 0.55 respectively.
too.
If three of them attempt to solve the puzzle without
consulting each other, find the probability that:
In other words,
(a) the puzzle will be solved correctly by all of them
(b) only one of them will get the correct solution.
P ( A' B') = P ( A') • P ( B ')
Example 23:
The probability that Roy is late for college on any
day is
0.15 and is independent of whether he was late on the
previous day. Find the probability that he
(a) is late on Monday and Tuesday
(b) arrives on time on one of these days
(c) arrives on time on Tuesday knowing that he was
late on Monday

Example 24:
There are 60 students in a certain college, 27 of them
are taking Mathematics, 20 are taking Biology and 22
are taking neither Mathematics nor Biology.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected
student takes
i) both Mathematics and Biology.
ii) Mathematics only.

(b) A student is selected at random. Determine

whether the event ‘taking Mathematics’ is
statistically independent of the event ‘taking
Biology’.

| 7
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

7.2 PROBABILITY INVOLVING PERMUTATIONS AND

SUBTOPIC
COMBINATIONS

LEARNING OBJECTIVE a) Distinguish between situations involving permutations and

combinations.
i. Use the techniques of counting.
ii. Find the number of permutations of n different objects.
iii. Find the number of permutations of r objects from n different
objects.
iv. Find the number of permutations of n objects comprising of r1
identical objects of type 1, r2 identical objects of type 2, …, rk
identical objects of type k, where r1 + r2 + … + rk = n.
v. Determine the permutation of a set of objects with condition.
vi. Find the number of ways to form combinations of r objects
from n different objects.
vii. Determine the combinations of a set of objects with condition.
b) Use permutations and combinations to calculate probabilities.

A) PERMUTATIONS

Techniques of Counting Example 1

In a computer game known as ‘maze of tunnels’,
If event A occurs in m ways and event B occurs in n there are 2 tunnels leading from point A to point B,
ways, the number of ways for the occurrence of 3 tunnels leading from point B to point C and 4
event A followed by event B is m  n . tunnels leading from point C to point D. calculate
the number of routes a rat can take to move:
This technique is also known as the multiplication a) From point A to point C via point B
principal. This principal can be extended to cover b) From point A to point D via points B and C
more than two successive events where the total
number of ways is given by m1  m2  m3  ...  mn

A permutation is an arrangement of a group of Example 2

objects in a particular order. The order of the There are 3 pictures A, B and C to be hung in a
objects is taken into consideration. line along the wall. In how many ways can they be
arranged?

| 8
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

Permutations of n Different Objects Example 3

How many different word codes can be formed
Number of permutations of n different objects taken from all the letters of the word ‘LOGARITHM’?
all at a time without repetition is
n! n! Example 4
n
Pn = = = n!
( n − n )! 0! How many ways can 5 people be seated on 5 chairs
arranged in a line if,
= n  ( n − 1)  ( n − 2 )  ...  2 1 a) no condition is imposed?
b) the first chair is reserved for one particular
Notes: person?
➢ 0! = 1
➢ n Pn = n ! means the products of all the
integers from 1 to n inclusive and is called ‘n Example 5
factorial’. How many different 4-digit numbers can be
formed from the digits 5, 6, 7 and 8 if,
a) there is no repetition.
b) the first digit must be 7 and no repetition is
allowed.

Permutations of r Objects Taken from n Example 6

Different Objects In how many ways can the letters H, S, A, M and
R be arranged without repetition when
The number of permutations of n different items a) all the 5 letters are taken at a time.
taken r at a time is n Pr where, b) 4 of the letters are taken at a time.
c) 2 of the letters are taken at a time.
n!
n
Pr =
( n − r )!
There are two types of this permutations: Example 7 (DIY)
Suppose you have 4 different flags. How many
a) With restriction or repetition is not allowed different signals could you make using:
( P) n
r
a) 2 flags ans: 12
b) 2 or 3 flags ans: 36
b) With no restriction or repetition is allowed
(n ) r
Example 8
How many three-digit numbers can be made from
the integers 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 if,
a) each integer is used only once?
b) there is no restriction on the number of
times each integer can be used?

Example 9
Four-digit numbers are to be formed from the
digits 0,1,2,3,4,5,6 and the numbers do not start
with digit 0. How many numbers can be formed if
the number:
a) is less than 5000 and every digit can only
be used once?

| 9
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

b) is less than 5000 and every digit can be

repeated.

Permutations where Some Objects are Repeated Example 10

How many different permutations can be made
The number of permutations of n objects comprising using the letters of the words?
of r1 identical objects, r2 identical objects, ..., rk (i) BOOKS
(ii) MATHEMATICS
n!
identical objects is
r1 ! r2 !...rk !
Example 11 DIY
There are 2 copies each of 3 different books to be
arranged on a shelf. In how many distinguishable
ways can this be done?
Ans: 90

Example 12
How many different 10-letter codes can be made
using three a’s, four b’s, and three c’s?

Permutation of A Set of Objects with Condition Example 13

Four sisters and two brothers are arranged in a
Case 1: Together straight line for several photographs to be taken.
(Set them as one object) How many different arrangements are possible if,
a) there are no restrictions.
_____ b) all sisters must be together.
c) sisters cannot all together.
d) the two brothers must be separated.
Case 2: Not all together
Number of permutations is
‘all arrangement’- ‘together’

Case 3: Separate / Never together

Arrange them in between the other. Example 14
----- In how many ways can 4 girls and 5 boys sit
together in a row if the boys and girls must sit
alternate to each other?

Example 15
In how many possible permutations of the letters of
the word ‘ADDING’ are the two D’s:
a) together?
b) separated?

| 10
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

B) COMBINATIONS

A combination is a selection of one or more of a Example 16

set of objects with no consideration given to the A bicycle shop owner has 12 types of mountain
order or arrangement of the objects. bicycles in the showroom. The owner wishes to
select 5 of them to display at a bicycle show. How
The difference between permutations and many different ways can a group of 5 are selected?
combinations is permutations are used when order
is important while combinations are used when Example 17
order is not important. A quiz team of four is chosen from a group of 15
students. In how many ways could the team be
Combinations of r Objects from n Different chosen?
Objects
The number of combinations of n different objects Example 18
taken r at a time is nCr where, In a test, a candidate is required to answer eight out
of ten questions. Find the number of ways a
n n!
n
Cr =   = candidate
 r  r !( n − r ) ! a) can answer the questions.
b) can answer the questions if the first three
questions must be answered.

Combinations with Conditions Example 19

If there are eight girls and seven boys in a class, in
Some problems on combinations involve choosing how many ways could a group be chosen so that
objects under certain conditions or restrictions. there are two boys and two girls in a group?
The given conditions must be considered when
using nCr formula together with multiplication
principle. Example 20
A 3-member committee is to be formed from 4
Notes: couples. Find the possible number of committees
that can be formed if
‘or’ means + a) all the members are men
b) the husband and the wife cannot be in the
‘and’ means  committee at the same time

Example 21
In a football training squad of 24 people, 3 are
goalkeepers, 7 are defenders, 6 are midfielders and
8 are forwards. A final squad of 16 selected for a
match must consist of 2 goalkeepers, 4 defenders,
5 midfielders and 5 forwards. Find the number of
possible selections if one particular goalkeeper, 2
particular defenders, 3 particular midfielders and 3
particular forwards are automatically selected.

| 11
 MATHEMATICS SM025 | CHAPTER 7

Probability Involves Permutation & (Permutations)

Combination
Example 22
8 men are to be arranged in a row. What is the
n( A)
P( A) = probability that the 3 bespectacled men are
n( S ) standing side by side?

where, Example 23
𝑛(𝐴) − number of outcome of event 𝑨 If you randomly select a permutation of the letters
𝑛(𝑆) − number of sample space C,I,E,N,T,I,S,K, what is the probability that they
spell ‘KINETICS’?

(Combination)
Example 24
Letters are randomly selected from the word
‘BEAUTY’
a) How many words of 3 letters can be
formed.
b) Find probability that all 3 letters chosen are
consonant.

Example 25
A committee of 5 people is to be selected from a
group of 5 men and 6 women. What is the
probability that the committee contains 2 men and
3 women?

| 12