Tutorial 01 Sol MTH2222

MTH2222 Mathematics of Uncertainty Sem 2, 2012
Tutorial 01 Solution Set
Problems discussed in tutorials

1 (a) From de Morgans laws, we have
Ac B c = (A B)c ,
and by taking the complement of both sides the rst equality follows. Also, from de
Morgans laws, we have
Ac B c = (A B)c ,
and by taking the complement of both sides the second equality follows.
(b) We have A = {1, 3, 5}, B = {1, 2}. Thus,
Ac B c = {2, 4, 6} {3, 4, 5, 6} = {4, 6},

(Ac B c )c = {l, 2, 3, 5},
A B = {1, 2, 3, 5},
so the rst equality is veried. Similarly,
Ac B c = {2, 4, 6} {3, 4, 5, 6} = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6},

(Ac B c )c = {1},
A B = {1},
so the second equality is veried.
2 Let N(S) denote the number of elements is a nite set. From the corresponding Venn
Diagram, we see that
N (A B) = N (A) + N (B) N (A B).
Thus,
N (A B) + N (A B) = N (A) + N (B).
3 We have P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = 1 P (Ac ) + P (B) P (A B) =

1 0.6 + 0.3 0.2 = 0.5.
4 There are 12 possible outcomes,
(1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4)

(2, 1) (2, 3) (2, 4)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 4)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3)
and each has probability 1/12. The required probabilities are obtained by counting the
number of outcomes that satisfy the corresponding criterion and dividing by 12. The
answers are: (a) 1/2. (b) 1/6. (c) 1/3.
Tutorial 01 1
5 Each of the events of interest can be described by a region in two-dimensional space,

where the horizontal axis is Alices number and the vertical axis is Bobs number.
Note that the events A and A B are identical because A is a subset of B. We are given
that the probability of any event is proportional to its area. Since the sample spate has
an area of 4, the probability of each event must be equal to its area divided by 4 to satisfy
the normalization axiom. We then obtain
25 35 25 5 41
P(A) = , P(B) = , P(AB) = , P(C) = 0, P(D) = , P(AD) = .
36 36 36 6 72
6 (a) We use the formulas P(A B) = P (A) + P (Ac B) and (A B C)c = Ac B c C c .

We have
P(A B C D) = P(A B C) + P ((A B C)c D)

= P(A B C) + P(Ac B c C c D)
= P(A B) + P((A B)c C) + P(Ac B c C c D)
= P(A B) + P(Ac B c C) + P(Ac B c C c D)
= P(A) + P(Ac B) + P(Ac B c C) + P(Ac B c C c D).
(b) Use induction and verify the main induction step by emulating the derivation of -
part (a).
7 (a) If E F = , then P(E F ) = 0 and P(E|F ) = 0.

P(E)
(b) If E F , then E F = E and P(E|F ) = 0.6, since P(F ) 1.
P(F )
P(F )
(c) If F E, then E F = F and P(E|F ) = = 1.
P(F )
8 (a) There are 6 possible outcomes that are doubles, so the probability of doubles is
6/36 = 1/6.
(b) The conditioning event (sum is 4 or less) consists of the 6 outcomes
{(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2), (3, 1)},
2 of which are doubles, so the conditional probability of doubles is 2/6 = 1/3.

(c) There ore 11 possible outcomes with at least one 6, namely, (6, 6), (6, i) and (i, 6),
for i = 1, 2, ..., 5. The probability that at least one die is a 6 is 11/36.
(d) There are 30 possible outcomes where the dice land on dierent numbers. Out of
these, there are 10 outcomes in which at least one of the rolls is a 6. Thus, the
desired conditional probability is 10/30 = 1/3.
9 Let A be the event that the student is not overstressed, and let Ac be the event that the
student is in fact overstrexsed. Now let B be the event that the test results indicate that
the student is not overstressed. The desired probability, P(A|B), is found by Bayes rule:
P(A)P(B|A) 0.005 0.95

P(A|B) = = 0.03.
c c
P(A)P(B|A) + P(A )P(B|A ) 0.0050 0.95 + 0.995 0.15
Tutorial 01 2
Revision problems
1 We have P(B) = 1 P(B c ) = 1 0.35 = 0.65. Also, by rearranging the formula
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B), we obtain P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) =
0.55 + 0.65 0.75 = 0.45.
2 The set A (A B)c is always empty, because it can be written as A Ac B c or B c ,

since A Ac = .
3 Let P(S = k) = ak, where a is the constant of proportionality. Since the events {S =
k}, for k = 2, 3, . . . , 8, are disjoint and form a partition of the sample space, we have
8
k=2 ak = 1 or
1 1
a= = .
2 + 3 + ... + 8 35
The sums 2 and 8 can arise in only one way, (1, 1) and (4, 4), respectively, so
2 8
P(1, 1) = P(S = 2) = , P(4, 4) = P(S = 8) = .
35 35
The sums 3 and 7 can arise in two ways, so
P(S = 3) 3 P(S = 7) 7
P(2, 1) = P(1, 2) = = , P(3, 4) = P (4, 3) = = .
2 2 35 2 2 35
The sums 4 and 6 can arise in three ways, so
P(S = 4) 4
P(1, 3) = P(2, 2) = P(3, 1) = = ,
3 3 35
P(S = 6) 6
P(2, 4) = P(3, 3) = P(4, 2) = = .
3 3 35
The sum 5 can arise in four ways, so
P(S = 5) 4
P(1, 4) = P(2, 3) = P(3, 2) = P(4, 1) = = .
4 4 35
The probability of getting doubles is

4
2 4 6 8 40
P(k, k) = + + + = .
k=1 35 3 35 3 35 35 105
4 Since the events A B c and Ac B are disjoint, we have using the additivity axiom
repeatedly,
P((A B c ) (Ac B)) = P(A B c ) + P(Ac B) = P(A) P(A B) + P(B) P(A B).
5 (a) Let F denote the event that the coin is fair and H denote the event that heads comes
up. Then
P(H|F )P(F ) .5 .5 1
P(F |H) = = = .
P(H) .5 .5 + .5 1 3
Tutorial 01 3
(b) Let H2 denote the event that heads comes up twice. Then
P(H2 |F )P(F ) .5 .25 1

P(F |H2 ) = = = .
P(H2 ) .5 .25 + .5 1 5
(c) Let H3 denote the event that heads comes up three times. Then
P(H3 |F )P(F ) .5 .125 1

P(F |H3 ) = = = .
P(H3 ) .5 .125 + .5 1 9
6 Let B be the event that Bob tossed more heads. Let X be the event that after each has
tossed n of their coins, Bob has more heads than Alice, let Y be the event that under
the same conditions, Alice has more heads than Bob, and let Z be the event that they
have the same number of heads. Since the coins are fair, we have P(X) = P(Y ), and also
P(Z) = 1 P(X) P(Y ). Furthermore, we see that
1
P(B|X) = 1, P(B|Y ) = 0, P(B|Z) = .
2
Now we have, using the theorem of total probability,
P(B) = P(X)P(B|X) + P(Y )P(B|Y ) + P(Z)P(B|Z)

1
= P(X) + P(Z)
2
1 1
= (P(X) + P(Y ) + P(Z)) = ,
2 2
as required.
What is happening here is that Alices probability of more heads than Bob is less than
1/2, so Bob has an advantage. However, the probability of equal number of heads is
positive, and when added to Alices probability of more heads, it gives 1/2.
Tutorial 01 4

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What are de Morgan's laws and how can they be used?

What are de Morgan's laws and how can they be used?

How can probabilities of events be calculated using areas of regions in sample space?

How can probabilities of events be calculated using areas of regions in sample space?

MTH2222 Mathematics of Uncertainty Sem 2, 2012

Tutorial 01 Solution Set

Problems discussed in tutorials

Ac B c = {2, 4, 6} {3, 4, 5, 6} = {4, 6},

so the rst equality is veried. Similarly,

Ac B c = {2, 4, 6} {3, 4, 5, 6} = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6},

so the second equality is veried.

N (A B) = N (A) + N (B) N (A B).

3 We have P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = 1 P (Ac ) + P (B) P (A B) =

4 There are 12 possible outcomes,

(1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4)

5 Each of the events of interest can be described by a region in two-dimensional space,

6 (a) We use the formulas P(A B) = P (A) + P (Ac B) and (A B C)c = Ac B c C c .

P(A B C D) = P(A B C) + P ((A B C)c D)

7 (a) If E F = , then P(E F ) = 0 and P(E|F ) = 0.

2 of which are doubles, so the conditional probability of doubles is 2/6 = 1/3.

P(A)P(B|A) 0.005 0.95

2 The set A (A B)c is always empty, because it can be written as A Ac B c or B c ,

P(H2 |F )P(F ) .5 .25 1

P(H3 |F )P(F ) .5 .125 1

P(B) = P(X)P(B|X) + P(Y )P(B|Y ) + P(Z)P(B|Z)

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