Ejercicios de Calculo Estocastico y Aplicaciones

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MATHEMATICAL TRIPOS Part III

Tuesday 5 June 2001 1.30 to 4.30

PAPER 24

STOCHASTIC CALCULUS AND APPLICATIONS

Answer FOUR questions. The questions carry equal weight.

You may not start to read the questions


printed on the subsequent pages until
instructed to do so by the Invigilator.
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1 Let (Ω, F) be a measurable space equipped with a filtration (Ft )t>0 . Explain what
is meant by the previsible σ-algebra P.

Consider the case where Ω = (0, ∞) and F is the Borel σ-algebra on Ω. Suppose
that (Ft )t>0 is the natural filtration of the process

Xt (ω) = 1t6ω .

Show that
(a) Ft = {B ∈ F : B ⊆ (0, t) or B c ⊆ (0, t)},
(b) P = {((Ω × T ) ∩ {(ω, t) : ω > t}) ∪ (A ∩ {(ω, t) : ω < t}) : A ∈ F ⊗ F, T ∈ F}.

2 Let M be a continuous L2 -bounded martingale and let H be a strictly simple


process, that is, for some 0 = t0 6 t1 6 . . . 6 tn and bounded Ftk -measurable random
variables Ztk ,
n−1
X
Ht = Ztk 1tk <t6tk+1 .
k=0

Define the integral (H · M )t and show that


Z ∞
E[(H · M )2∞ ] = E Hs2 d[M ]s
0

where [M ] is the quadratic variation process of M .


Outline briefly how this identity allows extension of the notion of the integral H ·M
to all locally bounded previsible processes.

3 Let M be a continuous local martingale starting from 0.


(a) Show that, if f is a C 2 function and f (M ) is of finite variation, then f (M ) ≡ f (0).
(b) Show that, if A is a deterministic continuous finite variation process and M 2 − A
is a local martingale, then Mt ∼ N (0, At ) for all t > 0.

Paper 24
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4 Consider the stochastic differential equation in R

dXt = σ(Xt )dBt + b(Xt )dt, X0 = 0.

Here σ, b : R → R are Lipschitz functions and B is a Brownian motion. Suppose that, for
some finite constant A, we have

|σ(x)|2 + |b(x)|2 6 A(1 + |x|2 ). (∗)

Show that, for any solution X,


 
E sup |Xt |2 6 e8A .
t61

Deduce that, even if σ and b are only locally Lipschitz, then condition (*) guarantees
the existence of a solution (Xt )t61 to the stochastic differential equation.

5 Consider the differential operator on R

x2 00 x 1
Lf (x) = f (x) + f 0 (x) − f (x).
2 2 2

Let u ∈ Cb1,2 ([0, ∞) × R) solve the Cauchy problem

∂u
= Lu on [0, ∞) × R,
∂t
u(0, ·) = g(·) on R.
Show that, for the solution (Xt )t>0 of a certain stochastic differential equation, we have

u(t, x) = Ex e−t/2 g(Xt )), t > 0.

Hence obtain the fundamental solution p(t, x, y) of the Cauchy problem for L,
showing in particular that

1 −(log y+t)2 /2t


p(t, 1, y) = √ e , y > 0.
2πt

Paper 24 [TURN OVER


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6 In the playground of a large school there is a craze for paper-scissors-stone. This


is a game for two players, each of whom simultaneously declares himself or herself to be
one of paper, scissors or stone. The winner is decided as follows: scissors cut paper, stone
blunts scissors and paper wraps up stone. The loser of any game switches to his opponent’s
choice next time, whilst the winner sticks with the same choice.

Suppose that games take place as a Poisson process of rate λ, and that, in each
game, the pair of players is chosen randomly from the N children in the playground. Write
down a Markov chain model for the proportions of children choosing paper, scissors and
stone.

Show that, if λ is taken to be a suitable function of N , then, in the limit as N → ∞,


the Markov chain is well approximated (in a sense you should make precise) by the system
of differential equations

ẋ1t = x1t (x3t − x2t ),


ẋ2t = x2t (x1t − x3t ),
ẋ3t = x3t (x2t − x1t ).

[Any appeal that you make to standard results should be supported by a precise statement,
but not a proof.]
Show that x1t x2t x3t is a constant and comment on this fact in the light of the long
time behaviour of the approximating Markov chains.

Paper 24

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