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    Tubiana GCEP 110216

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    younes Bayloux
    The document discusses next steps after the Paris Agreement on climate change. It outlines the defining features of the Paris Agreement, including its long-term goals and nationally determined contributions. It then discusses challenges in implementing the agreement, such as embedding climate policies into development strategies and increasing the level of ambition of commitments. The year 2018 is identified as an opportunity to further ratchet up climate ambition through finalizing rules and mobilizing climate finance. Key lessons from COP21 include leveraging different actors and dynamics across international institutions and countries.

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    Tubiana GCEP 110216

    Uploaded by

    younes Bayloux
    31 views15 pages
    The document discusses next steps after the Paris Agreement on climate change. It outlines the defining features of the Paris Agreement, including its long-term goals and nationally determined contributions. It then discusses challenges in implementing the agreement, such as embedding climate policies into development strategies and increasing the level of ambition of commitments. The year 2018 is identified as an opportunity to further ratchet up climate ambition through finalizing rules and mobilizing climate finance. Key lessons from COP21 include leveraging different actors and dynamics across international institutions and countries.

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    The document discusses next steps after the Paris Agreement on climate change. It outlines the defining features of the Paris Agreement, including its long-term goals and nationally determined contributions. It then discusses challenges in implementing the agreement, such as embedding climate policies into development strategies and increasing the level of ambition of commitments. The year 2018 is identified as an opportunity to further ratchet up climate ambition through finalizing rules and mobilizing climate finance. Key lessons from COP21 include leveraging different actors and dynamics across international institutions and countries.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    31 views15 pages

    Tubiana GCEP 110216

    Uploaded by

    younes Bayloux
    The document discusses next steps after the Paris Agreement on climate change. It outlines the defining features of the Paris Agreement, including its long-term goals and nationally determined contributions. It then discusses challenges in implementing the agreement, such as embedding climate policies into development strategies and increasing the level of ambition of commitments. The year 2018 is identified as an opportunity to further ratchet up climate ambition through finalizing rules and mobilizing climate finance. Key lessons from COP21 include leveraging different actors and dynamics across international institutions and countries.

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    of 15

    COP21 – NEXT STEPS TO ACCELERATE ACTION

    Laurence Tubiana

    Work in progress: do not quote without permission


    Outline of the presentation

    1. The defining features of the Paris Agreement

    2. The challenges ahead

    3. The year 2018

    4. Three lessons from COP21

    2
    1. The defining features of the Paris Agreement

    a) Three long term goals :


    • - attenuation: Holding the increase in the global average
    temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
    and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to
    1.5°C above pre-industrial levels(2.1.a)
    • adaptation: to increase the ability to adapt to the adverse
    impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience (art
    2.1.b)
    • finance: to reorient all investment flows – public and
    private,domestic and international – consistently with these
    climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives (art
    2.1.c)

    b) NDC: virtually all countries (163 so far) took on individual


    commitments in their Nationally Determined Contributions
    (NDCs).

    3
    1. The defining features of the Paris Agreement

    c) No going back: a built-in plan to constantly raise ambition

    - an internationally legally-binding Measurement Reporting and


    Verification (MRV) system (art 13) to track the implementation
    of countries’ commitments - including the commitments by
    developed countries to provide financial, technological and
    capacity building support to developing countries;

    - a 5-year assessment and review mechanism (art 14), to


    periodically increase the level of ambition of NDCs, and
    progressively close the gap with the well below 2C and 1.5C
    emission reduction pathways.

    d) Non-State Actors are part of the Agreement

    A rather short but essential recognition of the role they have to


    play, not just as observers, but as key drivers of change and
    enablers of more ambitious actions by governments

    4
    Conclusion on the defining features of the Paris Agreement

    On the importance of shaping expectations and building a


    credible narrative
    - The objective of the communication and political strategy we put in
    place for COP21 was to shape expectations from all stakeholders –
    and not just countries.
    - We, and many others (NGOS, parts of the press, business and local
    authorities networks, the UNFCCC executive secretary, etc..),
    repeated over and over that the Paris Agreement would make the
    transition to a zero-GHG, climate-resilient and sustainable
    development path irresistible, and irreversible.
    - The Paris Agreement will hopefully be remembered as a turning
    point in this transition – more on that later

    5
    2. The challenges ahead
    a) The challenges of implementation : NDCs
    - NDCs are expressed as stand-alone climate change mitigation or
    adaptation goals:
     climate change mitigation and adaptation policies will have to be
    embedded into a broader long-term socio-economic development
    strategy.
     This requires strong leadership, at the highest political level, and a
    close coordination process between the different ministries
    involved.
    - NDC are still too generic : we need more granularity
     They will need to be backed up by detailed sectoral action plans
    which means passing new legislations, and implementing new
    policies and regulations;
     which means designing investment plans.
    - Countries will need help : the NDC partnership

    6
    2. The challenges ahead
    b) The challenges of implementation: the toolkit

    - Pricing Carbon : a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for


    success:

    - Investing in zero-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure


     According to the New Climate Economy 2016 report (“the
    sustainable infrastructure imperative”) the world will have
    to invest around USD 90 trillions in infrastructure over the
    next 15 years;
     Financing and investment have to be mobilized and better
    deployed from a multitude of different domestic and
    external sources:
     MDBs have a role to play in building a system of risk sharing
    that will allow the international cost of capital to go down,
    especially for sustainable infrastructure investments.

    7
    2. The challenges ahead

    10/31/16
    2. The challenges ahead
    c) The challenges of raising ambition:
    According to most studies, the level of ambition of the current set of
    NDCs needs to be doubled to have a likely chance of limiting the
    temperature increase below 2C.
    Ambition as a policy question
    The challenge is not just to implement the current set of NDCs, it is to
    implement climate actions that are even more ambitious than the
    current set of NDCs and to start doing this now.
    Ambition as a political question
    - The climate agenda will not be implemented without the buy-in of
    individuals and societies at large.
    - If what has been happening in western societies in the past years is
    any warning, change is now perceived as a disruption and, at
    worst, as a threat. But hopefully as
    - Wanted: political leadership!!

    9
    3. 2018: a stepping stone for ratcheting up climate ambition

    a) Why 2018?

    - it is the year for the facilitative dialogue under the COP

    - the rule-book of the Paris Agreement will be finalized


    (including the rules for the MRV system),

    -the roadmap for the mobilization of the USD 100 billions of


    climate finance by developed countries will also need to be
    completed.

    10
    3. 2018: a stepping stone for ratcheting up climate ambition

    b) 2018: the year of looking forward

    - By 2018, we should arrive at the facilitative dialogue with a


    more optimistic view of the possibility for further increasing
    the ambition of climate actions;
    - Optimism will come from the reassurance:
     that countries (as well as local governments and businesses)
    are delivering on their commitments.
     that the investment and R&D dynamics induced by the
    implementation of these commitments (and new
    commitments to be made) is opening up an opportunity

    11
    3. 2018: a stepping stone for ratcheting up climate ambition

    c) The role of 2050 deep decarbonization development pathways

    - The Paris Agreement includes an invitation for countries to prepare


    and present long-term low-emission development strategies

    - Almost no country has a plan to reduce emissions to 2050 that is


    consistent with the objective of limiting the temperature increase
    below 2C, let alone to 1.5C

    - These strategies will need to be prepared by 2018 and become the


    basis for revising existing NDCs and setting the future NDCs

    - It is the objective of the 2050 pathways platform that will be


    launched in Marrakech, to which many cities, regions, states and
    businesses will also participate.

    12
    4. The 3 main lessons from success at COP21 for the next steps
    of climate action

    a) The international climate regime as a regime complex

    - Key to the success of our strategy was the idea that the
    international climate regime should be considered as a
    regime complex;
    - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
    (UNFCCC) at the center;
    - And many other international institutions or processes were
    directly or indirectly relevant from a climate perspective:
     G7, G20;
     MDB meetings; FSB
     Montreal Protocol and ICAO

    13
    4. The 3 main lessons from success at COP21 for the next steps
    of climate action

    b) Leveraging Non-State Actors

    - Was necessary to leverage their economic, political and


    communication powers to create an incentive for, and build
    pressure on, governments;
    - A fairly complex and very effective infrastructure was put in
    place:
     Cities: the Compact of Mayors, the Covenant of Mayors and
    C40;
     Regions: R20 and the Under2 MOU;
     Business : We Mean Business Coalition (BSR, CDP, CERES, the
    B Team, the Climate Group, the Prince of Wales Corporate
    Leaders Group and WBCSD);
     Action agenda/LPAA.

    14
    4. The 3 main lessons from success at COP21 for the next steps
    of climate action

    c) Leveraging national-international dynamics

    - Strong leadership by a large number of countries was a recipe


    for success;
    - Most obvious/famous : G2; U.S.-China Joint Announcement on
    Climate Change, November 2014.
    - Less famous but very important: V20
    - Key during COP21: HAC : Pacific Island leadership, EU, US and
    the late addition of Brazil;
    - India, Saoudi Arabia;
    - In the end: fading of North/South divide

    15

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