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BAKU CLIMATE NEWS UPDATE 11 November

PUBLISHED BY THIRD WORLD NETWORK 2024

Uncertainties loom at COP29 Climate Talks

Baku, 11 Nov. (Meena Raman and Prerna Bomzan) devastation in many parts of the world, with
– Uncertainties loom over the annual climate talks extreme events of severe heatwaves, forest fires,
which kick-off in Baku, Azerbaijan, from droughts and floods, with the poorest of the
November 11-22nd. Uppermost in the minds of world already paying the cost, and who have
delegates will be the impact of the election of contributed the least to greenhouse gas
Donald Trump as the in-coming President of the emissions.
United States, and the likelihood of a US pull-out of
the Paris Agreement (PA) once again, as it did in The Baku COP has been hailed as a ‘Finance
2017. COP’, with the hope that there will be agreement
on a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on
Such a departure of the world’s largest historical finance, commensurate with the needs of
and current per-capita emitter from obligations developing countries in facing the onslaught of
under the climate regime will have significant the climate crisis. The big question is whether
ramifications on efforts to limit global warming. developed countries agree to provide and
More so, when there is a strong likelihood of the mobilise significant public resources for
US furthering the ‘drill-baby-drill’ agenda, in a developing countries as per the PA. However,
complete about-turn from the difficult decision judging from the state of current politics in many
adopted by governments in Dubai last year, on developed countries, there appears to be public
“transitioning away from fossil fuels….in a just, money to fund wars, bombs and genocide, but
orderly and equitable manner.” there is no political will to provide the much-
needed public financial resources to the
With the US likely to abdicate from any developing world.
responsibility on reducing emissions and on
contributing to climate finance, the outlook Against this backdrop, the climate talks will
appears rather bleak for the Baku talks. cover the 29th meeting of the Conference of
Parties to the UN Framework Convention on
The implications are grave and portend worse Climate Change (COP 29), the 19th session of the
calamities to come. 2024 is expected to be the Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
warmest year on record, as we witnessed untold (CMP 19), the 6th session of the Conference of the

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 BAKU NEWS UPDATE NO.1 11 November 2024

Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 6) and the “investment” goal with a policy layer linking to
61st session of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific enabling environment in developing countries;
and Technological Advice (SBSTA 61) and the that enough public finance is not available and
Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SB61). therefore contingent upon the private sector,
Among the key issues which will be addressed are MDBs, IFIs and domestic resource mobilization.
set out below. They are also opposed to the inclusion of loss and
damage in the NCQG, limiting it to only mitigation
THE NCQG and adaptation efforts; that the NCQG is to achieve
Article 2.1(c) of the PA (on making financial flows
In Baku, Parties have to fulfill the mandate agreed consistent with a pathway towards low
to in Paris in 2015, that prior to 2025, they shall set greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient
the NCQG from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, development); and that there should not be a
taking into account the needs and priorities of revision of the goal (once agreed).
developing countries.
Developing countries on the other hand, as
At COP 28/CMA 5, by decision 8/CMA.5, Parties signaled by the G77 and China, on the quantum of
agreed to transition to a mode of work that enables the goal, have proposed figures ranging in the
the development of a draft negotiating text on the range of trillions of USD ($1 to 2 trillion per year),
NCQG for consideration at CMA6. Co-Chairs of the in accordance with their needs and priorities and
Ad hoc Work Programme (AHP) on the NCQG, have consistently called for its discussion on this
Zaheer Fakir (UAE) and Fiona Gilbert but to no avail. Further, they have maintained that:
(Australia) have produced an input paper as a (i) the NCQG is firmly linked to the Convention
“substantive framework for a draft negotiating given that Article 2 of the PA states that the PA is to
text”. (See further details below). enhance the implementation of the Convention; (ii)
contribution to the NCQG is mandatory, given it is
Key contentious issues that have dominated the a continuation of the USD 100 billion annual goal
negotiations are: on the quantum of the goal; and that Article 9 of the PA and the principles and
mandate of the NCQG – whether mandatory or provisions of the Convention constitute the
voluntary; linkage to the Convention or not; foundation of the NCQG, which means the goal
structure of the goal – whether single layer or must be delivered by developed countries to
multi-layered; contributor base – who pays; the developing countries based on equity and the
recipient base – who receives; role of the private principle of common but differentiated
sector, multilateral development banks (MDBs), responsibilities (CBDR); (iii) the structure of the
international financial institutions (IFIs) and goal must be kept simple and not go into complex
domestic resource mobilization in the achievement layers; the goal must include loss and damage
of the goal; timeframe and revision of the goal; response alongside mitigation and adaptation; it
among others. should recognize the importance of just transitions
towards low emissions climate resilient
During the process thus far, developed countries development pathways in the context of
have refused to talk about the quantum of the goal sustainable development and poverty eradication
which is the crux of the matter, arguing that it is a for developing countries; (iv) it must not impose
political issue to be decided by leaders and hence, conditionalities to the provision and/or
not to be dealt at the current technical level. mobilisation of climate finance to developing
Further, they have maintained that the NCQG is not countries and must provide access features that
linked to the Convention (but to the PA only); that operationalize the requirement for access channels
contribution to the goal is voluntary; the to ensure efficient and swift access to, and enhance
contributor base be determined based on the the coordination and delivery of climate finance for
“evolving” capabilities of Parties with the capacity developing countries; (v) there must be
to pay as well as on level of emissions, countries’ transparency arrangements related to a definition
gross domestic product and gross national income; on what to count and what not to count as climate
the recipients be limited only to the “most finance; (vi) it cannot include loans at market rate,
vulnerable”; that it is a multi-layered goal – a global private finance at the market rate of return, official

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 BAKU NEWS UPDATE NO.1 11 November 2024

development assistance and non-climate specific properly.

finance; (vii) the NCQG must be delivered via the
provision of public finance in a grants-based or Hence, the first task in Baku would be on how to
concessional manner and the quantum must not advance the NCQG negotiations and on what basis.
include domestic resources of developing What the final outcome would be will indeed be the
countries; (viii) it should provide a clear core focus of the talks.
agreement on burden sharing among developed
countries to establish their “fair share” of their GLOBAL STOCKTAKE
collective obligation to provide climate finance,
which allows predictability, transparency and At COP 28 last year, by decision 1/CMA.5, the
accountability and (ix) must address “dis-enablers” outcome of the first global stocktake (GST) was
of climate finance such as high cost of capital, high adopted following a North-South divide. The
transaction costs associated with access, and objective of the GST is to assess the collective
unilateral measures such as carbon border progress of Parties in meeting the goals of the PA.
adjustment measures (CBAMs). (See TWN Update).

These divergences between developed and There are three specific mandates from the
developing countries came out strongly during the decision to be addressed in Baku:
first AHWP meeting in April in Cartagena,
Colombia (See TWN Update) where the Co-Chairs (i) GST refinement – paragraph 192 decided to
had prepared an input paper to seek Parties views consider refining the procedural and
on possible elements of the draft structure for the logistical elements of the overall GST
substantive framework for a draft negotiating text process on the basis of experience gained
and options for content to be included under each from GST1, commencing at SB 60 and
element, as well as during the second AHWP concluding at CMA 6. Parties will consider
meeting in May in Bonn, Germany, in response to the informal note from SB 60 which does
the next input paper prepared by the Co-Chairs not represent “consensus” among Parties.
(See TWN Update) and at the closing plenary of the (ii) The United Arab Emirates (UAE) dialogue –
Bonn climate talks (See TWN Update). paragraph 97 under the “finance” heading
of the section on “means of implementation
Further, both developed and developing countries and support” (MOI) decided to establish the
maintained their key positions at the third AHWP dialogue “on implementing the GST
meeting in September in Baku, where the Co- outcomes”, and in paragraph 98, it was
Chairs produced an updated input paper for the agreed that the dialogue be operationalised
meeting which included two annexes: annex 1 from CMA 6 and conclude at CMA 10 (2028),
presenting an updated input which features and requested the SBI to develop its
section “C. Goal formulation packages of options” modalities at SB 60 for consideration by
containing seven different options; and annex 2 CMA 6. Parties will consider the informal
presenting a summary overview of the packages of note from SB 60 which “has not been agreed
elements for the full NCQG as expressed by Parties upon, is not exhaustive, and has no formal
and groups of Parties. status”.
(iii) Annual GST dialogue - paragraph 187
On 15 October, the Co-Chairs released an requested the SB Chairs to organize an
addendum which presents the “substantive annual GST dialogue starting at SB 60 to
framework for a draft negotiating text” for the facilitate the sharing of knowledge and good
consideration of Parties at CMA 6. practices on how the GST outcomes are
informing the preparation of the next
TWN has learnt that developing countries have nationally determined contributions
expressed serious concerns over the document and (NDCs). Parties will consider the
are not comfortable in taking the document as a secretariat’s report on the dialogue which
basis for a draft negotiating text, given the lack of was held in Bonn in June this year.
balance with their views not being reflected

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The most contentious of these GST related matters GST outcomes.

is the scope of the UAE Dialogue referred to in
paragraph 97 of the decision. The UAE dialogue is also likely to see an ‘agenda-
fight’, as the CMA 6 provisional agenda, the
Scope of the UAE Dialogue dialogue is currently placed under ‘Matters relating
The contention over the ‘scope’ of the dialogue is to finance’ and that in the annotations to the
whether it is related to only “finance” related provisional agenda, there is a footnote 10 which
outcomes of the GST or whether it is related to “all” indicates a request from the US and the United
GST outcomes and this fundamental difference on Kingdom for the item to be moved under matters
its scope dominated the negotiations at SB 60 in related to the GST (instead of it being placed under
Bonn, obscuring the key mandate of developing the ‘Finance’. In response, the African Group have
“modalities” for the dialogue. Parties finally agreed made a submission stressing that the dialogue
to forward the “informal note” from Bonn, should fall under “Matters relating to finance”.
capturing “five options/vision” on the scope, as the Whether there will be an agenda fight or not
basis for negotiations in Baku. remains to be seen.

The chapeau of the informal note states, “includes MATTERS RELATED TO ADAPTATION
divergent views on scope, modalities, and timeline, of
the GST-related activities and has been prepared by In the spotlight, there are two main agenda items:
the co-facilitators for this agenda item under their (i) Global Goal on Adaptation – UAE Framework for
own responsibility”. The five different options on Global Climate Resilience and (ii) National
the scope of the dialogue comprising respective Adaptation Plans.
purpose and objectives as well as the modalities
Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)
are listed comprehensively in the informal note in
the following order: At COP 28 in Dubai, by decision 2/CMA.5, Parties
adopted the UAE Framework for Global Climate
i. Climate Finance/MOI to implement the GST Resilience which includes seven thematic targets
outcomes; and four dimensional targets of the iterative
ii. Financial support from developed to adaptation cycle referred to in decision 3/CMA.4.
developing countries and tracking the
delivery of the NCQG; The Dubai decision also established a two-year
iii. Implementing all GST outcomes; UAE-Belem work programme (UBWP) on
iv. All GST outcomes with a view to inform indicators for measuring progress achieved
Parties in updating and enhancing their towards the thematic and dimensional targets with
actions and support; a view to identifying and, as needed, developing
v. All GST outcomes with a focus on indicators and potential qualified elements for
finance/MOI. those targets.

Negotiations on these five different options on the At SB 60, following extremely contentious
scope of the dialogue from Bonn (See TWN Update) negotiations between developing and developed
are expected to be highly contentious in Baku. To countries – especially on the inclusion of MOI and a
arrive at a consensus for a decision to structured expert led process rejected by the latter,
operationalize the dialogue starting at CMA 6 and Parties eventually adopted draft conclusions
concluding at CMA 10 (2028) will be a challenge. requesting the SB Chairs to convene technical
experts to assist technical work under the UBWP. It
Developed countries have maintained that the was also agreed to consider additional work by the
scope of the dialogue has to be on all the GST technical experts and associated modalities at SB
outcomes, while developing countries including 61 with a view to making a recommendation on
the Africa Group, the Like-minded Developing this matter for consideration at CMA 6 with a
Countries (LMDC), Group Sur, and the Arab Group ‘footnote 4’ caveat reading, “including the
have stressed that the focus should be only on consideration of the Adaptation Committee and/or
finance related outcomes of the GST and not all the an ad hoc expert group and/or expert groups,

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 BAKU NEWS UPDATE NO.1 11 November 2024

without prejudicing the outcome of negotiations at in Sharm el-Sheikh highlighted the importance of
CMA 6”. Further, the draft conclusions also carries international cooperation, where the G77 and
an informal note on the modalities of the UBWP China led by Egypt said that the group sees an
“which may be considered at SB 61, as appropriate, opportunity to foster international cooperation
recognizing that these views do not capture those of and partnerships by ensuring developed countries
all Parties and do not represent consensus”. (See meet their obligations and that this includes taking
TWN Update) the lead in reducing emissions and providing
financial, technological, and capacity-building
At the mandated workshop on the indicators, on 8- support to developing countries. It emphasized
9 October in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, which that the dialogue should focus on this perspective,
brought together the technical experts, a unpacking all required solutions that support this
compilation of over 5300 indicators with 16000 narrative through international cooperation and
data entries were presented by the secretariat. assessing any initiatives or unilateral measures
There’s also a complementary note to the with cross boarder negative impacts that
compilation and mapping of indicators available undermine these efforts.
online. Deliberations at the workshop were
notably dominated by the imperative need for MOI Further, it said that international cooperation
indicators demanded by developing countries as should promote a supportive and open
well as their experts, which was however rejected international economic system aimed at achieving
in particular by the US. This issue will clearly be a sustainable economic growth and development in
flashpoint in the negotiations in Baku. developing countries according to their national
circumstances and developmental priorities, with a
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) fairer distribution of resources between and within
The long-standing issue has been the demand for the countries, and thus enabling them to better
the provision of MOI for the implementation of address the problems of climate change, while
NAPs by developing countries but vehemently assessing the unilateral measures with cross
opposed by developed countries led by the US and boarder negative impacts in achieving a
a similar situation was witnessed at SB 60 (See cooperative approach in the implementation of Just
TWN Update). In Baku, the same fight is expected transition pathways.
to continue and whether a breakthrough will
indeed be achieved on this highly critical issue for Concluding its remarks, Egypt stressed that
developing countries. addressing the role of international cooperation on
the development and deployment of low carbon
UAE JUST TRANSITION WORK PROGRAMME and climate resilient technologies should be
pursued on equal partnership that leads to shared
AT SB 60, following long and intense negotiations, prosperity, taking into account the needs and
Parties finally agreed to a further consideration of priorities of developing countries in pursuing the
the just transition work programme (JTWP) in implementation of their sustainable development
Baku, by forwarding an informal note, with text in model and poverty eradication.
“brackets” (not agreed). The bone of contention is
the demand by developing countries for a The Baku negotiations on JTWP will be closely
“workplan” and a JTWP that actually delivers MOI watched on whether developing countries can
and international cooperation, instead of the successfully clinch an actionable workplan
imposition of unilateral measures which are major bolstered by MOI and international cooperation
barriers to the just transition in developing which would meaningfully support them to
countries. Developed countries on the other hand address challenges in their just transition
have been pushing for the JTWP to implement the pathways.
global mitigation efforts agreed to in the GST
decision in Dubai, including transitioning away RESPONSE MEASURES
from fossil fuels. (See TWN Update).
Response measures refers to the impacts of the
The mandated second dialogue held on 2-3 October implementation of mitigation measures in

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jurisdiction and out-of-jurisdiction or cross (See TWN Update). These issues will continue to
border-impacts taken by Parties. At SB 60, feature in the Baku talks.
following tough negotiations, Parties eventually
agreed to carry the work forward to Baku “taking FURTHER GUIDANCE ON NDCs FEATURES
into account the non-paper prepared by the Co-
Chairs” which carries a list of 60 activities to be In relation to further guidance on features of NDCs,
included in the new 5-year workplan. (See TWN decision 4/CMA.1 noted that features of NDCs are
Update). outlined in the relevant provisions of the PA and
decided to continue consideration of further
The most contentious activity relates to “unilateral guidance on features of NDCs at the CMA session to
measures” such as the CBAMs, which has been be held in November 2024.
proposed by developing countries to be addressed,
given the negative effects of trade-related climate One feature that all Parties underline is the need for
measures with cross-border impacts. This has been the NDCs to be nationally determined. There is
strongly opposed by developed countries. The likely to be pressure for in advancing new and
negotiations in Baku will most likely see another additional features in light of implementing
protracted fight by developing countries for the paragraph 28 from the GST decision of COP 28 on
inclusion of unilateral measures in the 5-year the global mitigation efforts, including on the need
workplan. to transition away from fossil fuels, which could be
viewed as undermining the national determination
In another related development on this issue, of the NDCs.
China for the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India,
China) countries has submitted a proposal to ARTICLE 6
include a new agenda item on “Concerns with
climate-change related unilateral restrictive trade At SB 60, draft texts were produced for Article 6.2
measures, and identifying the ways to promote (the use of internationally transferred mitigation
international cooperation in line with the First GST outcomes towards implementation of NDCs) and
Outcome” on the provisional agendas of the Article 6.4 (mechanism to contribute to the
SBI/SBSTA, COP 29, CMP 19 and CMA 6 and it will mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and
be closely watched how the COP 29 Presidency will support sustainable development) as the basis for
deal with this highly controversial issue. negotiations in Baku. These Articles relate to
international carbon-trading and carbon markets.
MITIGATION WORK PROGRAMME
Many Parties, including the COP 29 Presidency,
At SB 60, negotiations on the mitigation work have expressed hope that Baku will deliver on
programme (MWP) concluded with a deadlock settling all the outstanding technical issues
over the core issue of its mandate resulting in a lack regarding the Articles 6.2 and 6.4
of consensus on how to advance further work. operationalisation and implementation.
Negotiations will start from scratch in Baku again
on this matter. Among the sticky issues under Article 6.4 in Sharm
el-Sheik and Dubai was the lack of agreement by
The key areas of divergence during the two weeks the CMA on the methodology requirements and
centred on the following issues: whether the MWP activities involving removals recommended by the
conclusions from Bonn should include any high- Supervisory Body of the Article 6.4 mechanism
level political messages or not; whether there (SBM). The SBM then continued its work since
should be any linkage between the MWP and the Dubai to further develop the two documents for
GST decision from Dubai; whether the MWP should consideration and adoption at CMA6 in Baku.
be a vehicle for implementation of the mitigation These are the two key issues that require CMA
section of the GST outcome; and the relationship of consideration and approval. (The SBM has
the MWP and the NDCs, especially in light of all developed and adopted other documents like the
Parties needing to communicate their next NDCs by Sustainable Development Tool (SDT) which do not
February 2025 (for the 2031-2035 timeframe). need CMA approval.)

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Unlike last year where the SBM sent its documents Under Article 6.4, the Bonn conclusions state that
to CMA 5 for approval, the SBM took a different discussion on ‘emission avoidance’ is to continue in
approach to its recommendations to the CMA this 2028 and in relation to the draft negotiating text, it
year. The SBM, in its recommendations, requested notes that it does not represent consensus among
the CMA to (i) take note of the adoption of the two Parties. The draft negotiating text contains options
standards: (a) on methodology requirements and in “brackets” headings on authorization of Article
(b) on activities involving removals; (ii) take note 6.4 emission reductions; Article 6.4 mechanism
that the SBM will continue elaborating and registry; share of proceeds for adaptation;
implementing the standards; and (iii) endorse this transition of clean development mechanism
new approach of the SBM and requests the CMA to afforestation and reforestation activities; and
provide any additional guidance to this approach. baseline methodologies.
(The report of the SBM meeting held on 5-9
October 2024 provides the background to the new TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION
approach taken by the SBM). PROGRAMME

Sources informed TWN that the COP29 Presidency One of the key wins at COP 28 for developing
is consulting with Parties on whether they have countries is the establishment of the technology
objections to the CMA endorsing these SBM implementation programme (TIP), contained in
standards on the first day of COP29 opening. This paragraph 110 of the GST decision 2/CMA.5. It is to
can be viewed as an attempt by the Presidency to be “supported by, inter alia, the operating entities of
convey an achievement on the first day of the talks. the Financial Mechanism, to strengthen the support
for the implementation of technology priorities
However, there are still many issues to be resolved identified by developing countries, and to address
under Article 6.2 and Article 6.4. Under Article 6.2, the challenges identified in the first periodic
the draft negotiating text forwarded from Bonn assessment of the Technology Mechanism”.
does not represent consensus among Parties. The
draft text contains options and language in The decision also invited SBI 61 to take into
“brackets” under the headings on scope and account the TIP in its consideration of the Poznan
definition of a cooperative approach; strategic programme on technology transfer, with
authorization; application of first transfer; agreed a view to recommending a draft decision on the
electronic format; tables for submitting annual matter for consideration and adoption by CMA 6.
information as part of the regular information; The TIP as a stand-alone CMA agenda item
sequencing and timing; process of identifying, provides a valuable opportunity to advance the
notifying and correcting inconsistencies; critical issue of “implementation” of technology
inconsistencies identified in Article 6 technical development and transfer for developing
expert reviews; special circumstances of the Least countries, including for the development and
Developed Countries (LDCs) and the Small Island enhancement of endogenous capacities and
Development States (SIDS); additional technologies of developing countries as referred to
functionalities and procedures for the in Article 4.5 of the Convention. Whether any
international registry; work programme; and other advances will be made on this matter will be closely
matters. watched.