Climate Risk Assessment in Developing Countries: Pradeep Tharakan Asian Development Bank
Climate Risk Assessment in Developing Countries: Pradeep Tharakan Asian Development Bank
Climate Risk Assessment in Developing Countries: Pradeep Tharakan Asian Development Bank
Outline of Presentation:
1. How are Asian governments responding to climate change? 2. How do we go about evaluating climate risks to Asian communities? 3. What are the challenges we have faced in our ongoing studies? 4. What are the lessons learned?
Viet Nam Announces National Target Program on Climate Change Indonesia Announces Plans to Cut GHG by 26% by 2020 and up to 41% with international assistance.
ADB is supporting technical assistance to raise awareness, develop methodology, and develop action plans.
AD AP TAT I O N DEFICIT
Predicted Population Displacement in 2100 Predicted Inundation in Lower Mekong Areas in 2100 (1 m SLR)
Source: Carew-Reid, 2007 in Climate Change Adaptation in Lower Mekong Basin Countries, MRC, 2009
Dams on the upper Mekong will have a larger, near-term impact on regional hydrology than climate change. - Draining wetlands. - Development on flood plains.
Drought Emergency Events Database: http://www.emdat.be Storm Surges DIVA coastal vulnerability tool: http://diva.demis.nl/ Exposure Data Center for International Earth Science Information Networks (CEISIN) gridded population data sets and LANDSAT land use land cover dataset
Source: Ranger et al (2009).
Coordination among ministries and agencies, donors and (within donors) to both study climate risks and respond
Climate change response planning mandate given to
environment ministries that have difficulty convening other ministries. Needs effective coordination between energy, water, land resource, urban and environment ministries. Needs improved coordination between central ministries, local agencies and municipal authorities. Need for greater coordination among donors and within donors. ADB operational departments and cross cutting departments.
ADB TA to Vietnam
Two target provinces - Mekong Delta provinces of Ca Mau and Kien Giang. The study involves: Identifying future climate conditions in the Mekong Delta; Assessing the effects of climate risks on agriculture, energy and transport sectors in the region; and Identifying adaptation options and pilot projects
Hydrological Model
Coastal Model
Hot Spots
Community Consultation
Adaptation Planning
TO CONCLUDE
Climate change effects are already evident and expected to magnify in the near-to-medium term. Climate risk evaluation needs to be made in the context of ongoing economic growth and infrastructure expansion CLIMATE RESPONSE IS SHORT HAND FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Basic hazard mapping at regional and national levels to provide consistent risk information needed. E.g. Global
Earthquake Model http:// www.globalquakemodel.org
Data problems can be overcome Strengthen local scientific and technical institutional capacity data hub for climate change and weather data Communication of risk and management of responses is key