Air Passenger Market Analysis June 2022

Strong global recovery trend persists in June

• Global air passenger demand continued its strong recovery, with Revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) rising by
76.2% in year-on-year (YoY) terms in June.
• International RPKs grew by 229.5% YoY and domestic RPKs increased by 5.2% YoY. Domestic traffic levels are now
18.6% below their pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
• The industry-wide passenger load factor was 82.4% in June, up 12.9 percentage points (pp) over the past year and
returning to above 80% for the first time since January 2020.
• Looking ahead, the re-opening of the Asia Pacific markets will provide renewed impetus to the global passenger
recovery while inflation and higher interest rates may eventually begin to dampen the pent-up demand for air travel.

Industry continues to reach for pre-pandemic levels Domestic air traffic volumes resilient, major
improvements in China
In June 2022, industry-wide revenue passenger-
kilometers (RPKs) grew by 76.2% YoY. The global Industry-wide domestic RPKs grew by a solid 5.2%
industry recovery is now well-entrenched and RPKs over the year to June, showing a tentative indication of
have now risen to 70.8% of 2019 levels (Chart 1). moving out of the clear sideways trend that has
prevailed over the past 9 months or so.
Chart 1: Global air passenger volumes (RPKs)
Compared with June 2019, global RPKs are still almost
20% lower (Chart 2).
Chart 2 – Domestic RPK growth (airline region of
registration basis), YoY% ch vs 2019
Jun 2022 May 2022

-18.6%
Industry -23.1%

-2.9%
-9.2%
Dom. Australia

-4.2%
Domestic Brazil -2.0%

-8.2%
Domestic USA -5.1%

-9.5%
Domestic India -4.6%

-22.5%
Domestic Japan
-28.3%

The industry-wide passenger load factor (PLF) Domestic China

-51.0%
-71.4%
returned to above 80% for the first time since January
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
2020 and has increased by 12.9pp over the past year. Domestic revenue passenger-kilometres (% ch vs the same month in 2019)

Both the domestic and international PLFs are above Sources: IATA Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

80%, with the latter increasing significantly – by almost

In China, domestic RPKs surged this month, increasing
30pp – over the past 12 months.
by 70.2%. After a period of strict Covid-related
lockdowns, China is gradually reopening to air travel.

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – June 2022 1

Compared with June 2019, traffic levels within the Although the YoY growth rate has slowed in recent
country are still down 51.0%, although this represents months from an unsustainable pace, this more reflects
a significant improvement on the -71% outcome some very strong monthly gains in 2021 dropping out
observed last month. The experience in many other of the annual calculation, rather than a weakening of
countries is that domestic air travel demand rebounds the recovery.
sharply once restrictions are eased. While in its early
Across regions, the recovery in international RPKs has
stages, China so far appears to be following a similar
continued apace, alongside the reduction or removal
path in this regard.
of travel restrictions and the re-opening of markets.
US domestic traffic remained essentially unchanged in
Airlines based in Asia Pacific recorded the strongest
June compared with May, increasing by just 0.3%.
YoY growth rates for international RPKs this month, at
Compared with the same month in 2019, traffic
492.0%. This sharp uptake reflects the recent policy
volumes eased a little on this occasion to be 8.2%
decisions in countries including Japan and China to
below the June 2019 level, from a decline of around
re-open travel markets.
5% in May.
However, this international recovery is still in its early
In Brazil, domestic passenger volumes are up 37.6%
stages, with traffic levels still more than 70% lower
YoY in June, and are now just 4% below the level of
than their pre-pandemic 2019 levels. This is
2019. That said, the level of domestic RPKs has been
highlighted in the route area data shown in Chart 4,
trending broadly sideways for the past five months.
where the main Asia Pacific routes lag those of other
Contrasting fortunes were evident in India and Japan regions by some margin.
this month. For India, domestic RPKs increased by
Chart 4: Seasonally adjusted international RPKs,
264.4% YoY, but a decline in the monthly result saw
selected routes
the comparison with the 2019 level fall to -9%. In
Japan, the domestic market recovery continued in Seasonally adjusted international RPKs by route area, year-on-year %ch vs 2019
40%
Africa - Europe Africa - Asia
June, with traffic volumes up 146% YoY. Domestic Africa - Middle East Europe - Asia
Europe - Middle East Europe - North America
RPKs are 22.5% below their pre-pandemic level. 20% Europe - South America
Asia -SW Pacific
Asia - North America
ME-Asia
Middle East - North America Within Europe

The domestic market in Australia recorded a relatively 0%

modest 5.7% MoM increase in June. However, this

-20%
moves local traffic to within just 3% of its pre-
pandemic level. -40%

Insufficient data do not allow us to report on market -60%

developments for domestic Russia.

-80%

International traffic continues its strong recovery

-100%
International RPKs rose by 229.5% YoY in June.
Feb-20

Oct-20

Oct-21
Jan-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Dec-21
Mar-20

May-20

Mar-21

May-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Apr-22
Mar-22

May-22

Jun-22
sustaining the recent strong growth outcomes Source : IATA Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

(Chart 3).
Airlines based in Europe recorded growth of 234.4% in
Chart 3: International RPK growth (airline region of international RPKs over the year to June. Traffic is
registration basis), %YoY currently around 20% below the 2019 level. The Within
Jun 2022 May 2022
Europe market remains one of the strongest
Industry 229.5%
performers at the route area level, with RPKs almost
325.6%
7% above the pre-pandemic level in seasonally
Asia Pacific 492.0%
456.0%
adjusted terms.
Middle East 246.5%
317.2%
Carriers in Latin and North America recorded YoY
234.4%
growth in international RPKs of 136.6% and 168.9%
Europe
411.4%
respectively. For North America, international RPKs
N. America 168.9%
203.0% are now 16.5% below their 2019 level, the best
L. America 136.6%
performing of all regions for this metric. International
180.5%
RPKs for the Latin American carriers are currently 27%
Africa 103.6%
134.9% below the pre-pandemic level.
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
International revenue passenger kilometres (% year-on-year)
600%
Strong outcomes on some of the key international
Sources: IATA Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics markets were sustained in June including:

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – June 2022 2

 • North America – Central America: 9.2% above Across regions, total industry capacity is 11-12%
the level of June 2019; below the pre-pandemic level in both North and Latin
America. Unsurprisingly, given the developments
• Middle East – North America: 21.9% above
noted above, the recovery in Asia Pacific lags that of
2019; and
the other regions, with capacity still 49% below the
• Europe – North America: 12.2% above 2019. level of 2019.
For Middle East airlines, the recovery in international Much of the added capacity is due to the recovery in
traffic also continues on a strong trend, with volumes international travel, where ASKs have increased by
up 246.5% YoY in June – a performance second only almost 120% over the past year. With the exception
to Asia Pacific. International RPKs are currently around of Africa (62%) and North America (95%), all other
25% below their level of June 2019. regions have more than doubled available
Airlines based in Africa recorded a doubling of international capacity over this period.
international RPKs over the year to June, with an In contrast, domestic ASKs have increased by a more
increase of 103.6%. In total, international RPKs have modest 2.3% YoY. Of the main domestic markets that
recovered to be around 35% below their 2019 level at we monitor, ASKs in India have increased by around
present. At a route area level, the performance of 180% and, despite recent developments, domestic
international traffic between Africa and neighboring China ASKs are down almost 40% YoY.
regions is approaching pre-pandemic levels:
Domestic forward bookings on the rise, slowdown for
• Africa – Europe: 4.6% below June 2019; and international
• Africa – Middle East: 10.4% below 2019. Looking through the volatility in the data, domestic
bookings have been trending upwards strongly since
Aligned recovery continues for Premium and
March.
Economy cabins
The performance of international bookings, however,
The broad recovery trends for traffic in the Premium
has been more mixed. International forward bookings
and Economy cabins remained aligned in June.
caught up to domestic sales for a period in May but
Economy RPKs – which include premium economy
have recently reversed course and have trended lower
(and account for 92% of total RPKs) – were at 65.1%
in recent weeks.
of their January 2020 levels in May 2022. Premium
RPKs – which capture travel in first and business class As these data are not seasonally adjusted, the recent
cabins – were at 66.8% of January 2020 traffic levels pull-back could reflect the natural correction following
in May (Chart 5). the seasonal peak purchase period for the summer
holiday season (Chart 6).
Chart 5: International RPKs by cabin class
Overall, the latest bookings data suggest that,
International RPKs, January 2020 = 100
120
notwithstanding high energy prices, disruptions
Share of int'l RPKs by class relating to labor and capacity constraints in some
100
(identical in 2019 and 2021)
Economy: 92%
markets, and various other pressures on the industry,
Premium: 8% consumers’ willingness to travel remains strong.
80
Chart 6: Passenger ticket sales (dom. vs. int’l), global,
60 YoY% ch vs 2019
Economy 100%
40

Premium Domestic
20 80%

0
60%
51%
50%
International
Source: IATA Monthly Statistics 40%

28%
Industry capacity increases with passenger traffic 20% 16%

Industry-wide available seat-kilometers (ASKs) grew

0%
by 48.5% over the year to June, continuing the
7-May-21
7-Jun-21

7-Aug-21

7-May-22
7-Mar-22

7-Jun-22
7-Feb-21
7-Mar-21

7-Sep-21
7-Oct-21

7-Feb-22
7-Apr-21

7-Apr-22
7-Jan-21

7-Jul-21

7-Nov-21
7-Dec-21

7-Jul-22
7-Jan-22

recovery in global capacity. However, capacity is still

down around 28% compared with the level of 2019. Source: IATA Economics, DDS

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – June 2022 3

 Air passenger market in detail - June 2022
World June 2022 (% year-on-year) % year-to-date
share 1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)2 PLF (level)3 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)2 PLF (level)3
TOTAL MARKET 100.0% 76.2% 48.5% 12.9% 82.4% 82.9% 52.3% 12.5% 74.6%
Africa 1.9% 97.1% 62.0% 13.2% 74.3% 81.7% 49.3% 12.2% 68.2%
Asia Pacific 27.5% 33.7% 18.9% 8.1% 72.9% 3.5% 0.5% 1.9% 65.6%
Europe 25.0% 155.1% 96.1% 19.9% 86.0% 217.0% 140.0% 18.5% 76.2%
Latin America 6.5% 74.0% 67.2% 3.2% 81.7% 99.1% 81.0% 7.3% 80.3%
Middle East 6.6% 216.8% 89.3% 31.1% 77.2% 213.9% 87.1% 28.5% 70.6%
North America 32.6% 39.2% 26.4% 8.2% 89.1% 74.5% 44.7% 13.8% 81.0%

International 37.7% 229.5% 118.4% 28.1% 83.4% 264.3% 128.3% 27.3% 73.0%
Africa 1.5% 103.6% 61.9% 15.2% 74.2% 88.3% 48.9% 14.0% 67.1%
Asia Pacific 3.1% 492.0% 138.9% 45.8% 76.7% 280.7% 89.8% 31.5% 62.7%
Europe 18.7% 234.4% 134.5% 25.8% 86.3% 339.5% 189.2% 25.8% 75.6%
Latin America 2.1% 136.6% 107.4% 10.3% 83.3% 193.2% 134.7% 16.0% 80.5%

Middle East 6.0% 246.5% 102.4% 32.4% 78.0% 240.2% 97.1% 29.8% 70.8%

North America 6.2% 168.9% 95.0% 24.1% 87.7% 198.1% 93.1% 26.6% 75.6%

Domestic 62.3% 5.2% 2.3% 2.2% 81.1% 14.0% 7.1% 4.7% 76.6%
Dom. Australia4 0.8% 78.6% 43.5% 15.9% 80.8% 41.0% 28.6% 6.4% 72.7%
Domestic Brazil4 1.9% 37.6% 47.3% -5.4% 75.4% 59.7% 58.1% 0.8% 78.6%
Dom. China P.R.4 17.8% -45.0% -37.6% -8.9% 65.9% -48.2% -39.8% -10.2% 62.8%
Domestic India4 2.2% 264.4% 179.8% 19.0% 81.8% 67.3% 38.2% 13.9% 80.0%
Domestic Japan4 1.1% 146.4% 79.7% 15.7% 58.2% 83.1% 56.4% 7.6% 52.2%
Domestic US4 25.6% 8.7% 4.1% 3.9% 89.8% 46.9% 28.2% 10.6% 83.4%
1 2 3
% of industry RPKs in 2021 Year-on-year change in load factor Load factor level
4
Note: the seven domestic passenger markets for w hich broken-dow n data are available account for approximately 54% of global total RPKs and 86% of total domestic RPKs

Note: The total industry and regional grow th rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations. Airline traffic is allocated
according to the region in w hich the carrier is registrated; it should not be considered as regional traffic.

Air passenger market - 2022 vs. 2019

World June 2022 (% ch vs the same month in 2019)
share
1
RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)2 PLF (level)3
TOTAL MARKET 100.0% -29.2% -27.5% -2.0% 82.4%
Africa 1.9% -31.4% -34.3% 3.2% 74.3%
Asia Pacific 27.5% -54.6% -48.8% -9.3% 72.9%
Europe 25.0% -18.7% -17.3% -1.4% 86.0%
Latin America 6.5% -13.8% -12.1% -1.6% 81.7%
Middle East 6.6% -25.5% -26.2% 0.8% 77.2%
North America 32.6% -11.2% -11.4% 0.2% 89.1%
1 2 3
% of industry RPKs in 2021 Change in load factor vs same month in 2019 Load factor level

World June 2022 (% ch vs the same month in 2019) World June 2022 (% ch vs the same month in 2019)
share 1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)2 PLF (level)3 share 1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)2 PLF (level)3
International 37.7% -35.0% -34.8% -0.3% 83.4% Domestic 62.3% -18.6% -13.9% -4.6% 81.1%
Africa 1.5% -34.7% -37.6% 3.3% 74.2% Dom. Australia 0.8% -2.9% -5.9% 2.5% 80.8%
Asia Pacific 3.1% -70.2% -68.4% -4.7% 76.7% Domestic Brazil 1.9% -4.2% 3.8% -6.3% 75.4%
Europe 18.7% -20.4% -19.0% -1.5% 86.3% Dom. China P.R. 17.8% -51.0% -37.0% -18.8% 65.9%
Latin America 2.1% -27.0% -26.5% -0.7% 83.3% Domestic India 2.2% -9.5% -0.9% -7.7% 81.8%
Middle East 6.0% -25.7% -27.1% 1.6% 78.0% Domestic Japan 1.1% -22.5% -5.2% -13.1% 58.2%

North America 6.2% -16.5% -16.3% -0.2% 87.7% Domestic US 25.6% -8.2% -8.4% 0.2% 89.8%
1 2 3
% of industry RPKs in 2021 Change in load factor vs same month in 2019 Load factor level 1
% of industry RPKs in 2021 2
Change in load factor vs same month in 2019 3
Load factor level

IATA Economics
[email protected]
4 August 2022

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Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – June 2022 4