Questor Notes
Questor Notes
Questor Notes
QUE$TOR
2022 Q1 Release
May 2022
Contents
Introduction 3
Manifolding enhancements 6
Topsides electrification 9
Accuracy 12
General 13
Currency market 16
Steel 19
Equipment 21
Bulks 22
Offshore rigs 23
Offshore vessels 26
Subsea equipment 28
Labour 28
Land rigs 30
Version compatibility 31
System requirements 32
Installation procedure 33
Application execution 34
Licensing system 34
Copyright 39
Introduction
We are pleased to provide the 2022 Q1 release of the QUE$TOR cost
estimating software. The install files and supporting documentation for
the QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 release are available for download here.
If you are new to QUE$TOR, please read the installation procedure and
licensing section in this document prior to installation of the program.
The report includes the CO 2 emissions for the Production and surface
processing and Operational maintenance categories. The emissions are
calculated at the activity level and summed at the category and project
levels. The emissions intensities are estimated at the category and
project levels.
Manifolding enhancements
Production facilities and topsides have had changes made to
manifolding. Manifolding now calculates the weight of the manifolds
based upon the number of inlets, flowrate, and design pressure.
Previously the weight was calculated based upon the number of remote
and platform wells, risers, and flowlines coming from upstream
components.
For topsides the well bay area has been revised to include remote
risers. Previously, the number of well bays required was based on the
number of platform wells only. As remote risers are now considered as
an inlet coming into the platform, this is now included in the well bay
calculation. This may result in an increase in the number of well
bays/porches that are required.
The offshore wind farm component can be selected from the offshore
component toolbar and connected to other components (i.e. Topsides,
Landfall, Sink, and Source) via power cables as shown in Figure 2.
Topsides electrification
With the increase in industry consideration of scenarios powering
topsides with offshore wind farms or with power from shore, we have
adjusted the default driver options for pumping and compression to
electric drive when an Offshore wind farm is connected. This means
that all rotating equipment is driven by electric motors and their power
demand is shown in the power input form. Power is still expected to be
partially produced by gas turbine driven generators given the inherent
unpredictability of wind. An electrified topsides allows for the maximum
power offset from the wind farm and more flexibility in modelling a
reduced number of gas turbine driver trains.
Current carrying capacities and unit costs of cables and risers were
reviewed as part of this enhancement. As a result, the conductor area
and overall cost of any existing power cables has been impacted. The
type of power cable, number of conductors (3-core AC or bi-pole DC),
and conductor area are shown on the cost sheet.
The costs within each cost database are updated on a six-month basis,
with the Spring release representing costs from the first quarter (Q1)
and the Autumn release representing costs from the third quarter (Q3)
of the year.
l Cost indices, e.g. the IHS Markit CERA Upstream Capital Costs
Service Index (UCCI), the US Department of Labor Producer Price
Index and Consumer Price Index, the IHS Markit Global Insight
Price Index and the ENR’s Construction Cost Index. These are
more aggregate and so are not used directly but can help
generally inform the direction other industry analysts see the
market moving.
l In- house cost models for more QUE$TOR specific items, e.g.
secondary steel and tanker turrets. Models are also used to track
the cost movements of the market demand for other items e.g.
pressure vessels and heat exchangers.
Accuracy
QUE$TOR provides an estimate based on the costs within the markets
today. No allowance for inflation or deflation of costs is made over the
project life.
QUE$TOR is designed for use early in the project cycle. Therefore, the
accuracy level that can be attained by using the program is typically
within the range of +/- 25% to 40%. This corresponds to AACE
International Class 5/4.
Note: When saving a project, the QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 cost estimates will
overwrite earlier costs except where those costs are ‘locked’ on the
cost sheet or in the database. Therefore, if you wish to retain a copy of
your original estimate you should first create a duplicate of the project
before opening and saving it in QUE$TOR 2022 Q1.
QUE$TOR takes a considered view and tries to avoid any transient cost
variations with the aim of providing accurate cost data to be used for
cost estimation purposes. Therefore, you may see some differences in
trends, especially for commodity prices as compared with the latest
available data. Further detail relating to the impacts on the cost
database are provided in the Benchmarking Report, available via the
download site.
General
The COVID- 19 pandemic has shaped global economic activity since
2020 and is anticipated to continue for the foreseeable future with
more contagious but less severe forms of COVID displacing previous
more severe strains. The global economy is adjusting to the reality of
COVID and the fact that it will be present in everyday life for some
years to come.
The rapid increase in oil and gas prices is one of the largest drivers
supporting increased inflation rates. Prices are increasing despite the
release of significant quantities of oil from strategic oil reserves by
some western governments and reassurances from OPEC members
that they are increasing oil supply to calm oil markets and meet
increased demand.
The Russian cost database has been updated with available regional
and global cost data. However, given the conflict with Ukraine and the
recently imposed sanctions, the market situation has been unclear and
it has proven difficult to source data. For some of our regionally
sourced cost items, previous cost values have been maintained in the
cost database. Due to the limited data update, care should be taken
when using this database until costs can again be reliably sourced.
Should you need any further insight regarding our Russian data please
contact us at [email protected].
In November 2021, crude oil supply turned from deficit to surplus with
the emergence of the COVID- 19 Omicron variant and the
announcement by the US of releasing oil, both of which sent prices
tumbling. However, crude oil prices rebounded and climbed to new
highs as OPEC+ members produced below their monthly quotas and
the Omicron variant turned out to be less severe than previous
variants, prompting a more rapid ‘return- to- normal’ than was
anticipated.
The war between Ukraine and Russia has introduced uncertainty into
the market and has also directly impacted the flow of Russian energy
exports. These drivers have caused crude oil prices to exceed the 100
USD/bbl benchmark for the first time since 2014. Prices also surged
over 120 USD/bbl in early March due to the ongoing conflict and
combined with a decline in crude inventory in the US.
Currency market
The high volatility in the currency market during the first quarter of
2022 was mainly the result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the
end of February. The uncertainties and fears over the impact of the war
and the reaction from Europe, the US, and other allies on the global
economy have significantly affected all major markets. Europe’s strong
dependence on Russian energy supply, Russia and Ukraine’s roles as
major suppliers of agriculture products, metals, and other key raw
materials, as well as the sanctions imposed in response to the Russian
invasion, were all crucial factors in the global market’s initial reaction to
the conflict.
Those currencies that have received support from active central bank
policy making (USD, CAD) have outperformed those where central
bank rate hikes have remained more limited. The best performing
countries this first quarter of the year have been commodity producers
such as Angolan kwanza (AOA) and Brazilian real (BRL), while the
worst have been commodity importers with close economic links to
Russia, such as the Turkish lira (TRY), Polish zloty (PLN), the euro
(EUR), the British pound (GBP), and Korean won (KRW).
The world economy is projected to lose pace this year as inflation rises
due to the war and the reinstated Covid-19 lockdowns in China while
fiscal and monetary policies tighten. Risks to future global economic
growth include China’s economic performance, new variants of Covid-
19, the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the impact of further
sanctions on Russia.
Steel
While steel prices rose considerably in the first half of 2021, the market
began to rebalance in the fourth quarter as input costs declined and
supply began to meet demand. However, with the Russian invasion of
Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022, steel prices once again noted
significant increases, particularly in Europe and the Mediterranean.
Regionally, demand has remained relatively stable for most products,
but massive logistical challenges and rising raw materials costs are
negatively impacting the already limited supply. Prices for almost all
steel products in most regions are unsustainably high. Given the
roughly six-month lead time for procurement, stainless steel and alloy
products showed the most notable gains worldwide as high input costs
and supply chain issues affected prices. Linepipe also showed large
price increases for all regions, most notably in Europe, the
Mediterranean, and North America, as the costs of plate and sheet steel
rose considerably due to significant supply restraints for raw materials
and the high cost of iron ore. As the conflict in Ukraine continues
through 2022, the steel market is expected to rebalance. However,
prices remain unpredictable and will continue to be impacted by global
events.
Continuing the upward trend that began in the first quarter of 2021, oil
country tubular goods (OCTG) experienced some of the largest
increases of any steel product, with prices in Europe, the Middle East,
and South America rising most notably in the last six months. As oil
prices escalated to record levels in the first quarter of 2022, demand
for OCTG has increased globally and mills are unable to adequately
match production output, particularly affecting inventories in Europe
and North America. Additionally, costs for specialty raw materials such
as nickel and titanium soared in the first quarter due to supply chain
disruptions and shortages. Global consumption of OCTG is anticipated
to rise through 2022, most significantly in the United States, while
supply delays and elevated input costs tighten an already strained
market.
In the last six months, global structural steel and rebar prices rose in
US dollar terms by 12% and 13%, respectively. While declining input
costs and decreasing construction activity in China due to COVID-19
outbreaks tempered prices in the fourth quarter of 2021, the conflict in
Equipment
Equipment costs have increased moderately in the first quarter of
2022, where the main drivers have been the high costs for inputs like
steel and bulk materials. The rise in oil prices and the increase in
project activity also contributed to the escalation in equipment price
overall. In some cases, like the European market for global equipment,
currency fluctuations against the US dollar tempered the impact on
equipment costs, causing them to drop slightly. However, overall costs
went up for most regions.
Tanks and pressure vessel costs for all regions have seen a moderate
increase in local currency in the last quarter, continuing the previous
quarter’s upward trend. This is also due to the higher input costs for
steel products, alloys, and labour, magnified by the conflict in Ukraine.
Bulks
Bulk materials consist of various products including steel, concrete and
cement, wire and cables, electrical components, instrumentation,
valves, paint, asphalt, and insulation. Bulk materials demand is mostly
influenced by construction activity in the residential and commercial
sectors, which depend on the state of the economy. Therefore, the
demand for bulk materials tends to be subject to specific market
conditions and local economic development.
In the last six months, bulk material prices were expected to flatten but
have continued trending upward in the first quarter of 2022 due to high
inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Globally, increasing steel
and raw material costs facilitated a rise in price of bulk materials.
Higher oil and natural gas prices are also assisting in the recovery of
energy sector project activity, further increasing demand for bulk
materials. Due to inflation, rising raw materials costs, and high oil
prices, the bulk materials market is expected to tighten further through
the third quarter of 2022.
Supply chain disruptions are influencing the bulks market as the effects
of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to impact all regions. The outbreak
of new COVID- 19 cases in China is fuelling uncertainty and causing
delays to the supply chain. Regulatory changes and rising
transportation tariffs are also contributing to increasing prices of bulk
materials.
Cement and concrete prices increased in the first quarter of 2022, due
primarily to increased spending in infrastructure. As crude oil prices
increase, demand has risen for higher price oil cement used in well
construction activity. Cement and concrete prices also rose due to
labour shortages and wider adoption of eco- friendly cement and
concrete products. The business model has shifted towards net-zero
emissions targets. Lower-carbon versions of cement and concrete are
more expensive, bringing up the overall average price for cement and
concrete. As with other bulk products, lockdowns in Asia may temper
demand and offset price increases.
Bulk materials prices are expected to continue rising through the third
quarter of 2022. However, the conflict in Ukraine and lockdowns in Asia
will be key factors in determining the overall extent of the increase. In
addition, the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
passed in the US, plus increased investment in the power and
renewables sector, could escalate the demand and further tighten the
market.
Offshore rigs
The offshore rigs market has continued its improvement from 2021,
with increasing fixtures, utilization, and day rates. Rising oil demand
and conflict in Ukraine support increasing confidence in the market.
Early indications show that a significant number of previously cold
stacked rigs are either being reactivated or being considered for re-
activation. Many of those rigs now being reactivated are for long-term
contracts with extensions. However, the offshore rigs market also has
short- term issues to manage, specifically the ongoing effects of
With recent activity in Southeast Asia, the floater market has seen new
rig requirements and new contract fixtures being announced.
Indonesia was the only country in the region with a floater requirement
until 2022. However, based on recent activity and tendering levels,
several other Asian countries are currently considering the use of
floaters. In the jackup market, demand has been increasing, with
Indonesia and Malaysia driving current and future demand. There will
likely be a higher demand for jackup rigs as more activities are
anticipated across the region.
In the Indian Ocean, the floater and the jackup markets have started
the year quietly compared to Southeast Asia, with only a single award
announced for both markets so far in 2022. Demand for semis has
decreased whilst jackup demand has been maintained in the first
quarter of 2022.
In the Middle East region, the demand for jackup rigs increased as
NOCs continued to increase production capacity and, in turn, boost
overall rig numbers. Future growth is expected to be driven by new
requirements from Saudi Arabia and UAE. Jackup supply also
decreased in the region, increasing upward pressure on rig rates, which
are expected to increase and are being underpinned by increasing
operating costs.
The Latin America offshore rig market has handled the COVID- 19
pandemic better than most regions and is now in a strong position to
benefit from increased demand in 2022 and beyond. Future demand is
expected to support current high utilization levels within the region.
In North America, the floater market remains active with multiple new
rig requirements and new fixtures announced in the first quarter of
2022. The availability of drillships remains tight; more drillships are
expected to enter the region as the year progresses. The demand for
semis remains flat as drillships are now the primary regional
preference. Jackup demand is at its lowest since 2016.
The shortage of data for recent fixtures in some regions has made the
day rate update challenging for some rig specifications. Day rates in
QUE$TOR are based on our best understanding of the market at the
time. Often it is hard to identify the most representative day rate for
every offshore rig class in the current commercial market, where
variable transparency makes some rates private and those rates which
do become public knowledge do so on a variable timescale.
Offshore vessels
The offshore vessel market has started the new year facing challenging
times; however, optimism has increased and there are expectations
that offshore vessel owners could get higher day rates as the year
progresses. This is supported by increased demand for some vessels in
some regions, e.g., construction support vessels in the US Gulf of
Mexico.
The recovery in offshore vessel demand has already begun and most
market segments and regions are showing increased activity and
higher utilization. In addition, the requirement for reduced emissions is
increasing in the offshore vessel market to meet tighter environmental
legislation. Vessel owners have started to move towards net- zero
emissions with conversions of existing vessels, adding battery and
hybrid capability to their fleets. These new vessel designs provide an
indication of where the market is heading to meet increasing emissions
targets and support future sustainability.
In Asia Pacific, the utilization rate remains low, but demand is expected
to increase in the next several quarters as countries look to other
regions to ensure energy supplies following the conflict in Ukraine. The
oil and gas market is also competing with an increased demand in the
renewable energy market for higher specification vessels which may
put pressure on day rates.
The Middle East saw declining seasonal demand for the offshore vessel
market in early 2022. As many clients concluded their annual
campaign, the utilization rate fell further from the previous level. At the
end of the first quarter of 2022 vessel demand gained momentum, with
more fixtures indicating a robust recovery ahead.
With a strong 2022 outlook, further increases in vessel day rates are
expected, with the possibility that these extend until the end of 2022
and into 2023. Further increases could be supported by the rise in
operating costs and shortages of crews with rates for some categories
expected to outpace general rate rises, e.g., construction support
vessels. Demand for these vessels is likely to increase due to a rise in
activity both in the renewables and in the oil and gas market.
Subsea equipment
Subsea costs have seen a moderate but notable increase in the past six
months. This increase has some sub market and regional variation but
this is minimal with many subsea equipment items coming from a small
group of global companies.
With costs driven more by demand than simple material input, the
subsea market has been in a weak position over the last couple of
years with low oil prices and weak demand. Oil prices have seen major
increases in recent months, which has seen more orders being placed.
However, the uncertainty introduced with the Ukraine conflict has
taken focus, restraining the demand for subsea equipment and slowing
cost increases.
The increases seen in the subsea market have been driven primarily by
increases in raw material costs, labour costs, and inflation across the
industry, although the contributions of each of these vary between the
specific equipment items. Trees and manifolding have seen the largest
increase with the rise in cost of labour and a substantial increase in the
cost of steel and alloying metals. Flexible pipe and umbilicals have seen
less increase with little sign of returning demand.
While the cost increases are the largest seen in subsea equipment in a
while, they are still somewhat restrained. However, there is
expectation, with high oil prices, of pent up demand driving up costs
due to projects waiting in the wings starting to show up on order books
in the coming months.
Labour
Workforce mobility issues during the peak of the pandemic have
resulted in significant pressure being placed upon the general labour
market rate. The requirement for in- person work was scaled back
during the pandemic and now we are seeing a desire to increase that
work again. There is now a backlog of work and scheduled projects
coming online. In some regions, this is resulting in a tighter market for
labour. During the pandemic, there was significant support for
furloughed workers as governments tried to maintain industries and
In the US market, the labour rate has increased by about 1.5%, but
there are some differences between the type of labour and the work
situation. For example, in the US offshore market there has been an
increase of 1.2% for project management and 1.8% for general labour.
For onshore projects in the US, the labour rate has increased by about
1.3% for project management and 2.1% for General labour.
Labour rates in other countries have followed this trend except for
Russia, which has seen an increase, and Australia, which has seen a
decrease. The labour rates in Russia are the result of wage inflation due
to the Russian invasion into Ukraine. The decrease in Australia can be
attributed to the harder lockdown practices imposed by the Australian
government, lack of mobility in the marketplace, and adjustments in
the exchange rate.
Growth in labour rates in Europe has picked up its pace from a nominal
growth rate at the start of 2021. This can be seen in the construction
labour index, which increased by 6% in USD terms and by 2.3% in the
local currency in 2021, with most of this happening in the latter part of
the year. For the 2022 Q1 release this translates to a labour rate
increase of between 1.3% to 2%, with higher rates being seen in
markets such as the UK where there is a skills shortage in the oil and
gas sector. It is expected that Norway, with its current increase of
1.5%, may follow this higher wage growth as the new government has
signed support for offshore exploration work that should create a need
for more construction labour in the short term. In Europe, vacancies
are also rising due to disruptions in migrant labour flows, which may
also compound the skills shortage and wage growth.
In most other regions, project activity was increasing late in 2021 with
new FEED awards being announced. This new work is helping to
increase employment levels and boost wages. However, wage
increases are unbalanced with companies struggling to fill higher wage
technical positions (electrical, instrumentation, etc.) compared to
general labour rates. This tightening of markets and limited demand
availability means that there is wage growth in Africa, India, the Middle
East, Asia, and South America in this half year at a rate of 1% to 1.4%.
Land rigs
Continuing the upward trend from 2021, day rates for land rigs
increased globally by 2.4%. Rising oil prices and the Russian invasion
of Ukraine have strained the energy sector, driving oil prices higher.
Tender activity in most regions is growing, but utilization continues to
struggle as operators limit the number of rigs online due to labour
shortage and supply chain disruptions. While the COVID-19 pandemic
forced significant fleet reductions, drilling contractors focused their
efforts on negotiating performance-based contracts over the traditional
day rate model. As drilling activity continues to increase, super spec
rigs will be utilized first over other rig classes. However, as super spec
availability tightens, contractors will reactivate idle lower-class rigs to
manage the difference. Total rig utilization and day rates are expected
to increase through 2022, driven by rising operating costs and
demand.
Version compatibility
Projects created in QUE$TOR v8.0 and later are compatible with
QUE$TOR 2022 Q1. However, projects created or saved in QUE$TOR
2022 Q1 cannot be opened in earlier versions.
System requirements
QUE$TOR 2022 Q1
[1] The 32- bit (x86) and 64- bit (x64) versions of these operating
systems are supported.
Installation procedure
6. If you get any warnings during the installation, please contact the
QUE$TOR support desk, [email protected].
Application execution
l Windows 7 SP1
To run the software click the Start menu and follow All
Programs > IHS Markit > QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 > QUE$TOR
2022 Q1 or double-click the QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 icon created on
your desktop.
l Windows 8.1
To run the software click the Start menu and browse the start
screen to find QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 or double-click the QUE$TOR
2022 Q1 icon created on your desktop.
l Windows 10
To run the software click the Start menu and browse the program
list to find IHS Markit > QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 or double-click the
QUE$TOR 2022 Q1 icon created on your desktop.
Licensing system
In order to run QUE$TOR a valid license will be required. Depending
upon the license type that has been purchased this can either be in a
standalone or a network configuration. For standalone configurations
users will have to obtain a license by using the standalone online
activation tool, whilst for a network configuration locate the license
server within their own network. Obtaining the license is described in
the following sections. For more information about setting up the
network server please refer to the licensing guide that is available from
the download site as well as in the help file.
When the Set QUE$TOR license form (Figure 8) appears click on the
Activate standalone license button. This will open the IHS Markit
Standalone Online Activation tool.
First, you will need to copy / paste or type your EID into the
Entitlement Id input at the top of the form (Figure 9) and click Connect.
Next select the product(s) you would like to activate. Holding the Ctrl
key while selecting will allow selection of multiple products. Then click
on the Activate button.
Once complete the IHS Markit Standalone Online Activation tool can be
closed and OK can be clicked on the Set QUE$TOR license form.
QUE$TOR will now run the feature licensed.
When the Set QUE$TOR license form appears ( Figure 11 ), type the
license server name in the Server name input box, then click the OK
button.
Or by phone
Americas: +1 800 447 2273
Europe, Middle East and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300
Asia Pacific: +604 291 3600
Copyright
Copyright© 2022, S&P Global. All rights reserved.
1Build: 2022-05-19:21:14:09