United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

April 8, 2022

Livestock and Poultry:

World Markets and Trade
Major Pork Exporters Look to Markets Outside China

China import demand for pork surged in the wake of supply deficits caused by African swine fever. As
pork production declined by nearly a third in 2020, imports nearly quadrupled and China accounted for
more than 40 percent of global trade to satiate the world’s largest consumer of pork. Hog sectors
around the world – spurred on by sky-high prices in China – expanded production, shifted product out of
their domestic markets, and redirected pork from other destinations. Among the four largest exporters
in 2020, the share of exports destined for China ranged between 29 and 55 percent on a volume basis.

Pork trade with China remained firm in early 2021 and grew 20 percent year-over-year in the first
quarter. However, by May, imports slipped below year-earlier levels and by December, imports were
more than 60 percent or 300,000 tons lower than the same month in 2020. Recovery in China domestic
pork output as well as greater supplies of other meat weighed on pork prices and disincentivized trade,
pushing 2021 imports nearly 20 percent or about 1 million tons lower than the record levels of the prior
year. As China imports eased in 2021, major exporters sought alternative markets – though most, with
the notable exception of Brazil, were unable to reallocate such large supplies and trade declined.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

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 In 2022, China pork imports are forecast to decline nearly 20 percent and push global trade lower, more
than offsetting a recovery in demand among other major importing countries as they recover from
COVID-related disruptions. As growth in other markets will again not offset the decline in China, most
major pork exporters will experience a second consecutive year of contracting shipments. The European
Union (EU), the top pork supplier to China and the world’s largest exporter, is forecast to see exports
decline 5 percent to just under 4.8 million tons this year. Exporters in the EU are expected to find some
relief from lower China demand in the form of stronger demand in the United Kingdom, where imports
are projected 7 percent higher in 2022. The EU will also boost shipments to Japan, South Korea, and
Australia, countries to which EU exports declined in recent years as sales shifted to China. Competitive
EU carcass prices compared to U.S. and firm demand will propel higher shipments to these markets in
2022.

Meanwhile, U.S. pork exports are forecast 6

percent lower year-over-year. China demand
for U.S. product was among the first to come
under pressure, with U.S. shipments to this
important market falling during every month
of 2021 compared to the previous year due
to high U.S. prices and retaliatory tariffs.
These factors are expected to persist in 2022
causing further declines in U.S. market share.
Partially offsetting losses in China, demand
for U.S. pork is expected to grow in Mexico,
the world’s third largest pork importer, where U.S. market share has been consistently higher than 80
percent. Tight labor availability in the United States should continue to spur shipments of bone-in hams
to Mexico, which grew 27 percent year-over-year in 2021 and have shown similar strength this year.
Additionally, Mexico is well positioned to supply Japan with the labor-intensive cuts it demands, keeping
exports as a share of production above 20 percent for the third consecutive year and creating an
opportunity for U.S. product to augment domestic consumption. Plus, limitations on Mexico turkey
meat imports due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries in the United States may also support
increased pork imports. The United States continues to maintain a position as the dominant supplier to
a variety of markets in Latin America that experienced growth in import demand during 2021. Going
forward, Colombia and the Dominican Republic are expected to grow further, although more slowly
than last year as high U.S. prices create headwinds.

Canada exports are expected to decline modestly in 2022, sliding 1 percent year over year. Like the
United States, Canada faces headwinds in China. Currently, the majority of Canada pork production
remains suspended from China due to reported COVID cases at several plants; however, most cases
occurred months ago and do not necessarily represent active outbreaks. Tight supplies in the United
States – Canada’s top export market– will help offset declines to China.

Of the four largest exporters, only Brazil saw overall shipments grow in 2021 on strong production gains,
competitive prices, and a weak real. Even exports to China increased year over year as Brazil boosted its
share in that market to 16 percent. In 2022, Brazil is expected to sustain aggregate exports, seeing
modest growth of less than 1 percent. In China, Brazil will likely capture a larger portion of a shrinking
pie due to more competitive pricing than other major exporters. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to perform
well in Vietnam and the Philippines and demand is growing in neighboring Argentina and Uruguay.

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Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Table of Contents

Beef and Veal

Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
Beef Summary Tables.………………………………………………………………………………….. 5
Cattle Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 7

Pork
Overview………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 9
Pork Summary Tables……………………………………………………………………………………. 10
Swine Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 12

Chicken Meat
Overview………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14
Chicken Meat Summary Tables …………………………………………………………………….. 15

Notes to Readers……………………………………………………………………………………… 17

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Beef and Veal
Global production is forecast nearly 1 percent higher in 2022 based on growth in Australia, Brazil,
India, and Mexico. High global beef prices will induce more slaughter while greater supplies of cattle and
stable carcass weights support the increase in beef production. Australia production is expected to
expand by 12 percent as improved pasture conditions have expedited herd rebuilding over the past
year. Meanwhile, greater cattle availability and improved slaughterhouse profitability will drive a 4
percent increase in Brazil beef production. India carabeef production is forecast up 4 percent, thus
continuing its recovery and exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Lastly, Mexico is projected to reach record
levels of production thanks to the cattle sector’s profitability and rebounding hotel, restaurant, and
institutional demand. Meanwhile, production in Canada, the United States, and European Union are
forecast down 3 percent, 1 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. Drought conditions and tight feed
availability in Western Canada will accelerate Canada’s herd contraction. U.S. production is anticipated
to decrease because of a contracting cattle herd as well. Lastly, unprofitability in the EU cattle sector will
lead to lower beef production in 2022.

Global exports in 2022 are forecast to increase by 3 percent on firm demand, particularly in East
Asia markets. Ample supplies of slaughter-ready cattle and regaining China market access will drive
Brazil exports and offset expected declines to Mercosur neighbors. Improved demand from price-
sensitive markets will also boost India exports of carabeef to the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
Rebounding Australia supplies and firm demand will spur shipments to East Asia and the United States.
However, tight cattle supplies in both New Zealand and some Mercosur members (Paraguay, Uruguay,
and Argentina) will limit these countries’ exports for 2022.

U.S. production and exports: Production is forecast down by about 1 percent as the U.S. herd
continues to contract leaving a smaller supply of slaughter-ready cattle. Exports are also expected to
contract by 4 percent because of lower production, strong domestic demand, and increased competition
in East Asia. Nevertheless, U.S. exports remain well above historical levels. In 2022, the United States is
projected to remain the world’s largest beef producer and second largest exporter behind Brazil and
ahead of India and Australia.

Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Beef and Veal Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Production
Brazil 9,900 10,200 10,100 9,500 9,750 9,850
China 6,440 6,670 6,720 6,980 6,920 7,100
European Union 7,067 6,964 6,882 6,855 6,800 6,800
India 4,240 4,270 3,760 4,195 4,250 4,350
Argentina 3,050 3,125 3,170 3,000 3,020 2,960
Mexico 1,980 2,027 2,079 2,150 2,190 2,190
Australia 2,309 2,432 2,125 1,888 2,115 2,115
Canada 1,265 1,342 1,314 1,420 1,430 1,375
Russia 1,357 1,374 1,378 1,380 1,370 1,360
South Africa 1,027 1,019 1,008 996 990 997
Others 6,840 6,845 6,810 7,040 6,966 6,969
Total Foreign 45,475 46,268 45,346 45,404 45,801 46,066
United States 12,256 12,385 12,389 12,730 12,383 12,627
Total 57,731 58,653 57,735 58,134 58,184 58,693
none
Total Dom. Consumption
China 7,808 8,826 9,486 9,987 10,149 10,229
Brazil 7,925 7,929 7,611 7,242 7,140 7,312
European Union 6,753 6,698 6,518 6,502 6,430 6,450
India 2,729 2,776 2,476 2,798 2,650 2,875
Argentina 2,568 2,379 2,365 2,270 2,298 2,268
Mexico 1,902 1,901 1,898 1,959 2,010 1,990
Russia 1,790 1,767 1,708 1,628 1,620 1,475
Japan 1,298 1,319 1,295 1,265 1,300 1,295
United Kingdom 1,268 1,136 1,168 1,151 1,125 1,125
Canada 1,014 1,029 1,045 1,033 1,050 1,022
Others 8,215 8,207 8,024 8,061 8,101 8,159
Total Foreign 43,270 43,967 43,594 43,896 43,873 44,200
United States 12,181 12,409 12,531 12,705 12,390 12,695
Total 55,451 56,376 56,125 56,601 56,263 56,895

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a
year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Beef and Veal Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Imports
China 1,369 2,177 2,782 3,024 3,250 3,150
Japan 840 853 832 807 830 825
Korea, South 515 550 549 588 575 595
Chile 308 347 342 464 380 450
United Kingdom 502 407 407 407 385 385
Hong Kong 521 356 513 371 385 350
European Union 422 435 350 321 320 335
Egypt 300 340 230 300 270 275
Malaysia 204 197 206 214 250 230
Philippines 187 185 190 222 230 230
Others 1,836 1,852 1,763 1,670 1,737 1,570
Total Foreign 7,004 7,699 8,164 8,388 8,612 8,395
United States 1,360 1,387 1,516 1,518 1,481 1,560
Total 8,364 9,086 9,680 9,906 10,093 9,955
none
Total Exports
Brazil 2,021 2,314 2,539 2,320 2,680 2,600
India 1,511 1,494 1,284 1,397 1,600 1,475
Australia 1,582 1,739 1,473 1,291 1,470 1,470
Argentina 501 763 819 738 730 700
European Union 736 701 714 674 690 685
New Zealand 602 623 638 682 625 640
Canada 478 525 513 597 605 580
Uruguay 436 436 411 556 490 530
Mexico 272 315 343 363 380 380
Paraguay 355 338 371 434 440 380
Others 710 757 798 831 850 827
Total Foreign 9,204 10,005 9,903 9,883 10,560 10,267
United States 1,433 1,373 1,339 1,564 1,483 1,497
Total 10,637 11,378 11,242 11,447 12,043 11,764

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month
beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Cattle Stocks - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
India 301,900 302,700 303,200 305,500 306,700 306,700
Brazil 232,350 238,158 244,144 252,700 264,100 264,238
China 90,386 88,791 90,828 95,009 99,500 97,559
European Union 79,010 77,840 77,161 76,494 75,750 75,650
Argentina 54,793 55,008 54,461 53,540 53,740 53,570
Australia 26,176 25,699 23,655 23,021 23,971 23,944
Russia 18,195 18,050 18,022 17,953 17,798 17,798
Mexico 16,584 16,699 16,900 17,000 17,370 17,258
Uruguay 11,744 11,396 11,436 11,966 11,956 11,646
Canada 11,565 11,500 11,265 11,155 10,930 11,095
Others 38,054 38,031 38,004 38,039 38,094 38,332
Total Foreign 880,757 883,872 889,076 902,377 919,909 917,790
United States 94,298 94,805 93,793 93,790 91,800 91,902
Total 975,055 978,677 982,869 996,167 1,011,709 1,009,692
none
Production (Calf Crop)
India 68,600 69,000 69,400 69,800 70,000 70,000
Brazil 49,500 50,490 51,500 52,000 53,300 53,750
China 46,400 50,750 51,900 50,525 52,500 52,500
European Union 25,461 25,365 24,970 24,825 24,750 24,550
Argentina 14,851 14,965 14,300 14,300 14,550 13,900
Australia 9,100 8,700 8,300 8,200 8,800 8,800
Mexico 7,700 7,900 8,000 8,150 8,300 8,300
Russia 6,566 6,680 6,660 6,600 6,525 6,525
New Zealand 4,895 5,127 5,135 5,339 5,121 5,121
Canada 4,347 4,336 4,350 4,372 4,350 4,320
Others 12,168 12,191 12,404 12,141 12,066 11,915
Total Foreign 249,588 255,504 256,919 256,252 260,262 259,681
United States 36,313 35,592 35,496 35,085 34,700 34,300
Total 285,901 291,096 292,415 291,337 294,962 293,981

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was
released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Cattle Trade - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Imports
China 157 199 266 361 350 375
Canada 202 275 277 402 360 330
Egypt 250 340 280 200 200 200
Mexico 24 29 37 90 60 60
European Union 71 99 43 20 25 20
Others 150 156 156 96 106 53
Total Foreign 854 1,098 1,059 1,169 1,101 1,038
United States 1,899 2,043 2,114 1,775 2,025 1,985
Total 2,753 3,141 3,173 2,944 3,126 3,023
none
Total Exports
Mexico 1,278 1,381 1,485 1,200 1,460 1,170
European Union 1,060 1,070 1,126 1,025 1,040 1,035
Canada 631 725 675 648 590 830
Australia 1,151 1,344 1,109 788 900 600
Uruguay 406 140 120 250 220 220
Others 928 743 578 295 341 346
Total Foreign 5,454 5,403 5,093 4,206 4,551 4,201
United States 244 307 321 510 325 350
Total 5,698 5,710 5,414 4,716 4,876 4,551

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was
released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Pork
Global production is forecast nearly 3 percent higher year-over-year in 2022 at 110.5 million tons
primarily on higher output in China. Hog inventories in China continued to grow during 2021 and were
reported at nearly 450 million head – up 11 percent year-over-year. This should support China pork
production in the first half of the year as these animals are marketed. However, currently high input
prices and relatively weak pork demand have pressured producer margins, taking a financial toll on hog
operations and making it likely that output growth will slow later in the year. Overall, China pork
production is forecast at 51.0 million tons in 2022, 7 percent higher than 2021. In a global context, this
will offset tighter supplies in the European Union, where a long-term trend of declining consumption
coupled with slowing export demand drove producer margins down last year. This has led the breeding
herd to contract by more than 3 percent. Even with continued growth in sow productivity, EU pig
supplies will be lower as a result, pushing pork production 2 percent lower year-over-year to 23.2 million
tons.

Global exports are expected at 11.7 million tons in 2022, 4 percent lower year over year as
contracting China and Philippines imports more than offset growth elsewhere. China imports are
forecast to decline 19 percent in 2022 as domestic production continues to grow and consumer demand
remains relatively weak. Meanwhile, Philippines imports are forecast down 18 percent due to the
expiration of expanded tariff rate quota volumes and lower tariffs. On the other hand, rebounding
foodservice business is expected to spur South Korea imports 12 percent higher. Mexico imports are
expected to remain firm, growing 4 percent, as pent-up consumer demand and recovering foodservice
business supports consumption.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast at 12.3 million tons in 2022, 2 percent
lower than 2021, as lower hog inventories and farrowing intentions lead to tighter pig supplies for the
remainder of the year. Meanwhile, tight domestic pork supplies and correspondingly high prices will
weigh on U.S. exports while lower imports from China will increase competition in other Asian markets.
U.S. exports are forecast to decline 6 percent year over year to just under 3.0 million tons.

Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Pork Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Production
China 54,040 42,550 36,340 47,500 49,500 51,000
European Union 23,156 22,996 23,219 23,720 23,660 23,150
Brazil 3,763 3,975 4,125 4,365 4,455 4,410
Russia 3,155 3,324 3,611 3,700 3,710 3,730
Vietnam 2,811 2,430 2,467 2,590 2,720 2,720
Canada 1,955 2,000 2,115 2,120 2,150 2,070
Mexico 1,321 1,408 1,451 1,484 1,540 1,535
Korea, South 1,329 1,364 1,403 1,407 1,365 1,410
Japan 1,284 1,279 1,306 1,318 1,330 1,315
Philippines 1,601 1,585 1,115 1,000 1,000 1,000
Others 5,563 5,576 5,770 5,967 5,970 5,881
Total Foreign 99,978 88,487 82,922 95,171 97,400 98,221
United States 11,943 12,543 12,845 12,559 12,487 12,288
Total 111,921 101,030 95,767 107,730 109,887 110,509
none
Total Dom. Consumption
China 55,295 44,866 41,521 51,726 53,600 54,400
European Union 19,654 18,894 18,203 18,833 18,780 18,500
Russia 3,202 3,363 3,468 3,558 3,550 3,640
Brazil 3,043 3,116 2,949 3,047 3,098 3,083
Vietnam 2,869 2,493 2,687 2,884 2,965 2,985
Japan 2,774 2,714 2,732 2,760 2,765 2,769
Mexico 2,116 2,159 2,052 2,320 2,365 2,415
Korea, South 2,001 2,011 1,976 1,997 2,003 2,034
United Kingdom 1,625 1,554 1,468 1,520 1,450 1,535
Philippines 1,883 1,806 1,282 1,457 1,374 1,374
Others 6,863 6,835 6,703 7,176 7,228 7,172
Total Foreign 101,325 89,811 85,041 97,278 99,178 99,907
United States 9,747 10,066 10,034 9,915 9,902 9,923
Total 111,072 99,877 95,075 107,193 109,080 109,830

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Pork Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Imports
China 1,457 2,451 5,281 4,330 4,200 3,500
Japan 1,480 1,493 1,412 1,420 1,450 1,450
Mexico 972 985 945 1,155 1,175 1,200
United Kingdom 1,006 932 837 751 740 800
Korea, South 753 694 554 570 620 640
Philippines 283 222 168 458 375 375
Hong Kong 411 331 378 364 420 350
Vietnam 78 73 225 300 250 270
Canada 228 242 274 263 270 260
Australia 216 269 201 210 210 215
Others 1,221 1,243 1,051 1,275 1,187 1,292
Total Foreign 8,105 8,935 11,326 11,096 10,897 10,352
United States 473 429 410 535 590 635
Total 8,578 9,364 11,736 11,631 11,487 10,987
none
Total Exports
European Union 3,671 4,266 5,176 4,986 4,980 4,750
Canada 1,277 1,284 1,546 1,479 1,480 1,465
Brazil 722 861 1,178 1,321 1,360 1,330
Mexico 177 234 344 319 350 320
United Kingdom 307 338 349 256 310 265
Chile 190 223 295 268 270 250
China 202 135 100 104 100 100
Russia 37 68 156 158 170 100
Australia 41 33 34 38 40 40
South Africa 17 17 16 17 22 17
Others 58 41 69 75 72 57
Total Foreign 6,699 7,500 9,263 9,021 9,154 8,694
United States 2,666 2,867 3,302 3,189 3,175 2,991
Total 9,365 10,367 12,565 12,210 12,329 11,685

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Swine Stocks - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Beginning Stocks
China 441,589 428,070 310,410 406,500 410,000 449,220
European Union 145,544 143,519 143,146 145,877 145,620 141,699
Brazil 38,829 38,427 37,850 37,350 36,350 35,688
Russia 22,945 23,600 25,048 25,744 26,200 26,200
Canada 14,170 13,975 13,970 14,030 13,650 14,110
Mexico 10,410 10,700 11,050 11,500 11,775 11,775
Korea, South 11,273 11,333 11,280 11,078 11,000 11,217
Japan 9,280 9,156 9,090 9,290 9,110 9,074
Ukraine 6,236 6,150 5,842 5,986 6,000 6,000
United Kingdom 4,713 4,648 4,741 4,758 4,700 5,075
Total Foreign 704,989 689,578 572,427 672,113 674,405 710,058
United States 73,145 75,070 76,833 77,312 74,201 74,146
Total 778,134 764,648 649,260 749,425 748,606 784,204
none
Production (Pig Crop)
China 687,500 440,000 565,000 655,000 645,000 665,000
European Union 256,050 253,325 256,100 254,000 256,000 251,000
Russia 49,500 52,910 55,880 57,300 56,850 56,850
Brazil 40,954 42,250 43,525 44,515 45,300 45,150
Canada 28,032 28,352 29,555 30,243 30,350 30,200
Mexico 18,650 19,650 20,291 20,810 21,750 21,700
Korea, South 19,118 19,889 19,973 20,473 19,600 20,433
Japan 16,690 16,770 17,230 17,000 17,250 17,150
United Kingdom 10,950 11,175 11,250 11,600 11,300 10,900
Ukraine 8,813 8,565 8,569 8,770 9,300 7,600
Total Foreign 1,136,257 892,886 1,027,373 1,119,711 1,112,700 1,125,983
United States 132,568 137,588 140,680 132,948 136,770 132,220
Total 1,268,825 1,030,474 1,168,053 1,252,659 1,249,470 1,258,203

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Swine Trade - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Imports
United Kingdom 564 356 500 468 500 400
China 8 1 29 24 40 20
Mexico 33 37 25 15 25 20
European Union 17 13 19 12 5 15
Russia 8 14 21 11 12 5
Canada 3 6 6 4 0 3
Japan 1 0 3 1 2 2
Ukraine 30 22 11 7 8 2
Brazil 1 1 2 2 2 1
Korea, South 2 1 1 2 1 1
Total Foreign 667 451 617 546 595 469
United States 5,250 5,096 5,293 6,666 5,725 6,500
Total 5,917 5,547 5,910 7,212 6,320 6,969
none
Total Exports
Canada 5,263 5,113 5,311 6,674 5,750 6,500
European Union 1,011 828 517 887 600 875
China 1,580 945 718 881 800 865
Russia 7 7 55 44 30 45
Ukraine 9 10 4 19 10 5
Brazil 8 9 3 2 2 3
United Kingdom 3 4 3 2 2 2
Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0
Korea, South 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Foreign 7,881 6,916 6,611 8,509 7,194 8,295
United States 64 60 56 52 65 55
Total 7,945 6,976 6,667 8,561 7,259 8,350

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Obustgrowth
Chicken Meat
Global production is forecast virtually unchanged in 2022 at 100.1 million tons as gains by major
producers generally offset declines in Ukraine and China. For most countries, higher feed prices are
expected to stymie expansion despite forecasted economic recovery buoying modest demand growth.
As the leading world exporter, Brazil will increase production substantially to backfill global demand
vacated as Ukraine meat exports cease. Similarly, expansion in Turkish production will be fueled by
regional demand. Russia production will grow on increased availability of feed grains, but product will be
directed to the domestic market. China production is forecast lower as pork production continues to
rebound and yellow feather broiler production declines due to consumers shifting to online and modern
retail channels.

Global exports are forecast stagnant in 2022 at nearly 13.4 million tons. Much of the drop in global
exportable supplies spurred by the absence of Ukraine will be fulfilled by Brazil which is one of the few
major exporters able to service a wide array of markets. Turkey and the United Kingdom will also post
trade gains on modest demand growth in their respective regions. Imports by Ukraine, Russia, and Saudi
Arabia will decline while modest growth is expected for Iraq, Cuba, the United Kingdom, and Mexico.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast 1 percent higher in 2022 as relatively
high feed grain prices pressure producer returns and elevated retail prices moderate consumer demand.
Exports are forecast unchanged at 3.3 million tons. As U.S. exports are largely destined for price-
sensitive middle- and low-income markets, relatively higher U.S. prices will reduce competitiveness
particularly in the second half of the year. While the United States faces restrictions by trading partners
due to the current Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak, these restrictions are generally
limited in geographic scope at a zone, county, or state-level rather than national, thus the impact on
shipments to date have been limited.

Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Chicken Meat Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Production
Brazil 13,355 13,690 13,880 14,500 14,750 14,850
China 11,700 13,800 14,600 14,700 14,300 14,300
European Union 10,618 10,836 11,030 10,830 10,910 10,850
Russia 4,684 4,668 4,680 4,600 4,650 4,800
Mexico 3,485 3,600 3,725 3,815 3,900 3,900
Thailand 3,170 3,300 3,250 3,220 3,340 3,250
Turkey 2,157 2,138 2,136 2,246 2,230 2,390
Argentina 2,068 2,171 2,215 2,290 2,300 2,320
United Kingdom 1,750 1,726 1,794 1,840 1,725 1,850
Colombia 1,695 1,761 1,685 1,774 1,675 1,805
Others 18,624 19,759 20,004 20,331 20,329 20,134
Total Foreign 73,306 77,449 78,999 80,146 80,109 80,449
United States 19,361 19,941 20,255 20,391 20,712 20,525
Total 92,667 97,390 99,254 100,537 100,821 100,974
none
Total Dom. Consumption
China 11,595 13,952 15,211 15,032 14,640 14,640
Brazil 9,588 9,756 10,010 10,280 10,430 10,255
European Union 9,354 9,458 9,653 9,636 9,755 9,695
Mexico 4,301 4,469 4,560 4,725 4,832 4,833
Russia 4,785 4,712 4,688 4,632 4,640 4,790
Japan 2,761 2,789 2,757 2,838 2,832 2,852
Thailand 2,255 2,389 2,299 2,280 2,400 2,320
Argentina 1,911 1,941 2,025 2,117 2,130 2,145
United Kingdom 2,148 2,054 2,004 2,115 2,025 2,125
Colombia 1,781 1,871 1,779 1,870 1,780 1,905
Others 23,600 24,692 24,855 25,410 25,307 25,723
Total Foreign 74,079 78,083 79,841 80,935 80,771 81,283
United States 16,185 16,702 16,994 17,158 17,361 17,219
Total 90,264 94,785 96,835 98,093 98,132 98,502

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was
released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Chicken Meat Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022
Jan Apr

none
Total Imports
Japan 1,074 1,076 1,005 1,077 1,060 1,080
Mexico 820 875 842 917 940 940
China 342 580 999 789 800 800
United Kingdom 779 714 664 625 675 650
European Union 740 770 660 644 635 645
Saudi Arabia 629 601 618 610 625 550
United Arab Emirates 421 482 429 500 445 510
Iraq 529 494 468 388 375 440
Philippines 321 366 335 437 400 420
Ghana 222 259 295 363 350 380
Others 4,129 4,244 4,288 4,441 4,359 4,405
Total Foreign 10,006 10,461 10,603 10,791 10,664 10,820
United States 64 61 66 72 67 68
Total 10,070 10,522 10,669 10,863 10,731 10,888
none
Total Exports
Brazil 3,770 3,939 3,875 4,225 4,325 4,600
European Union 2,004 2,148 2,037 1,838 1,790 1,800
Thailand 925 961 941 907 960 930
Turkey 413 402 440 563 515 650
China 447 428 388 457 460 460
United Kingdom 381 386 454 350 375 375
Argentina 168 235 196 183 180 185
Belarus 168 174 190 184 170 185
Russia 131 173 216 218 215 175
Chile 111 131 136 133 140 135
Others 731 874 870 906 896 495
Total Foreign 9,249 9,851 9,743 9,964 10,026 9,990
United States 3,244 3,259 3,376 3,362 3,403 3,362
Total 12,493 13,110 13,119 13,326 13,429 13,352

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2019, Yemen is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which
the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Notes to Readers
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current
situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.

Data Revisions in PSDs for Years Prior to 2020:

Revisions are made based on new and/or additional information.
Commodity/Attribute Years Countries

Cattle
Imports 2016 – 2019 China
Slaughter 2017 – 2019 Australia and Canada
Beef
Production 1996 – 2019 Malaysia
Pork
Production 2016-2019 Angola
Chicken Meat
2010,
Production Belarus, Cuba, Egypt, Guatemala, Iraq, Jordan, and Vietnam
2015-2019
2009-2011,
Trade Argentina, South Africa, and Vietnam
2013-2019

Assumptions
Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of April 8, 2022, and assumes
their continuation.
Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal
announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is
specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these
forecasts.

Technical Notes
CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise
noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal
of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.
RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and vestigial
feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus, entrails, and
lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys may have been
removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without need of further
processing Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of poultry or other parts
of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for cooking without need of
further processing.
European Union: The term “European Union” means the countries involved in the previous customs
union, i.e., EU27+UK, through 2015. Starting with 2016 data, livestock and poultry PSDs reflect EU27 and
UK separately.

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Conversion Rates and HS Codes

BEEF AND VEAL

HS Code Description Conversion Rate
020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00
020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00
020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36
020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00
020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00
020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36
021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74
160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79
Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates
include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.

PORK
HS Code Description Conversion Rate
020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00
020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11
020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30
020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00
020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11
020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30
021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30
021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16
021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16
160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30
160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30
160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30

PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources
• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-
Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 April 2022

Global Market Analysis
 Future Releases and Contact Information
Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view
archived and future releases. Starting with this circular, Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published
four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be
updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is July 12, 2022.

Country/Commodities for January and July Releases

Countries Beef Pork Chicken Meat
Angola x
Argentina x
Australia x
Brazil x x x
Canada x x x
China x x x
Cuba x
EU x x x
Hong Kong x x
Iraq x
Japan x x x
Mexico x x x
New Zealand x
Philippines x x
Saudi Arabia x
South Africa x
South Korea x x x
Thailand x
United Kingdom x x x
United States x x x

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Jack Brower (202) 869-9036 [email protected] Cattle and Beef

Susan Karimiha (202) 720-0262 [email protected] Swine and Pork
Jake Vuillemin (202) 690-4476 [email protected] Swine and Pork
Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Chicken Meat

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 19 April 2022

Global Market Analysis