Draft 8NDP - 22 - 03 - 2022 - CAGs PDF

Republic of Zambia
EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

(8NDP) 2022-2026
Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods
© 2022
Ministry of Finance and National Planning
P O Box 50062
Lusaka, ZAMBIA
Tel: +260-211-252395
II
FOREWORD
III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Eighth National Development Plan is a nationally owned and comprehensive document
that was formulated through a highly consultative and participatory process involving
stakeholders across all sectors. The consultations with various stakeholders were undertaken at
all levels so as to develop consensus and establish ownership. I owe Special debt of gratitude
to Cabinet under the leadership of His Excellence, Mr Hakainde S Hichilema, who provided
much valuable guidance in terms of strategic direction and focus.
I would like to express my deepest appreciation and special thanks to all Zambians from all
walks of life for their substantial conceptual contributions to the formulation process of the plan.
These include all Government line Ministries; Provinces and Districts; Spending Agencies;
Private Sector Institutions and Civil Society Organizations; all media persons and institutions for
the awareness raising and information dissemination critical to this process. This made the task
less difficult to accomplish. To the consultants, it gives me a sense of pleasure to acknowledge
your invaluable contribution for your diligent work in shaping this document.
Special thanks are also extended to the cooperating partners for the unwavering financial
and technical support. Lastly but not the least, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to
all members of staff in the Ministry of Finance and National Planning who participated in
formulating this plan for providing extensive personal and professional guidance.
Hon. Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, MP

Minister of Finance and National Planning
IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD............................................................................................................................................................ III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................................................ IV
LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................................IX
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................................................X
PART I: DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT........................................................................................................................... 1

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 2
1.1 FORMULATION OF THE PLAN ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
1.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF THE 8NDP ............................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
1.2.1. Kurt Lewin Change Model .......................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
1.2.2. The Integrated Multi-Sectoral Development Approach ......... Error! Bookmark not defined.
1.3 OUTLINE OF THE PLAN ................................................................................................................................ 4
2 PAST PERFORMANCE .................................................................................................................................... 5
2.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................... 5

2.2. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE .................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.1. Economic Growth ...................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.2. Fiscal Performance ..................................................................................................................... 6
2.2.3. Monetary and Financial Sector Performance ......................................................................... 7
2.2.4. External Sector Performance..................................................................................................... 8
2.3. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ......................................................... 10
2.4. PERFORMANCE IN KEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREAS ................................................................. 12
2.4.1. Economic Diversification and Job Creation .......................................................................... 12
2.4.2. Poverty and Vulnerability Reduction ...................................................................................... 14
2.4.3. Reducing Developmental Inequalities ................................................................................... 16
2.4.4. Enhancing Human Development ........................................................................................... 18
2.4.5. Creating a Conducive Governance Environment ............................................................... 18
2.5. KEY LESSONS LEARNT................................................................................................................................ 20
3 OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR ZAMBIA’S DEVELOPMENT ......................................................... 21
3.1. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ....................................................................................................... 21
3.3.1 POPULATION DYNAMICS AND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ................................................................................... 21
3.3.1. Population Dynamics ............................................................................................................... 21
3.3.1.1. The Demographic Dividend .................................................................................................... 22
3.3.1.2. Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend ........................................................... 24
3.3.2 RAPID URBANISATION ..................................................................................................................................... 25
3.3.2.1 Urbanisation and Spatial Dynamics........................................................................................ 25
3.3.3 HUMAN SETTLEMENTS AND HOUSING ................................................................................................................ 26
3.3.4 THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) ........................................................................................... 28
3.3.5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ................................................................................................................ 29
PART II: MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................... 31
4 MACROECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES................................................................................................. 32

4.3.1. Achieving Higher and more Inclusive Growth ...................................................................... 34
4.3.2. Fiscal Policies and Reforms...................................................................................................... 34
4.3.3. Debt Management Strategy .................................................................................................... 34
4.3.4. Domestic Arrears and Dismantling Strategy .......................................................................... 35
4.3.5. Monetary and Financial Sector Polices .................................................................................. 35
4.3.6. External Sector Policies ............................................................................................................ 36
PART III: 8NDP: TOWARDS THE VISION 2030 ....................................................................................................... 38
5 TOWARDS VISION 2030 ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
6 TOWARDS VISION 2030 .............................................................................................................................. 39
V
5.1. OVERVIEW OF THE VISION 2030 .............................................................................................................. 39
5.2. MOVING TOWARDS THE VISION 2030: WHAT IT WILL TAKE................................................................... 39
5.3. LINK BETWEEN THE 8NDP AND THE VISION 2030 ................................................................................... 40
PART IV: THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREAS OF THE 8NDP .......................................................................... 41
7. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA 1: ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND JOB CREATION................... 42
7.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 42

7.2. CURRENT SITUATION ................................................................................................................................. 42
7.1. CONSTRAINTS............................................................................................................................................ 43
7.1. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: AN INDUSTRIALISED AND DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY ............................. 44
7.1.1. Strategy 1: Increasing agricultural production and productivity ........................................ 44
7.1.2. Strategy 2: Promote traditional and non-traditional minerals .............................................. 45
7.1.3. Strategy 3: Promote value addition and manufacturing ..................................................... 46
7.1.4. Strategy 4: Promote tourism growth ....................................................................................... 46
7.1.5. Strategy 5: Improve transport and logistics ............................................................................ 47
7.1.6. Strategy 6: Enhance Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electricity .................... 48
7.1.7. Strategy 7: Enhance the management of petroleum products ......................................... 48
7.1.8. Strategy 8: Enhance management and productive use of water resources .................... 49
7.1.9. Strategy 9: Enhancement of digital capacity ....................................................................... 49
7.1.10. Strategy 10: Promote applied research and development ................................................ 49
7.2. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: ENHANCED CITIZENRY PARTICIPATION IN THE ECONOMY................ 51
7.2.1. Strategy 1: Promote local and diaspora participation in the economy ............................ 51
7.2.2. Strategy 2: Promote Enterprise development ....................................................................... 52
7.2.3. Strategy 3: Promote technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills .............................. 52
7.3. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: A COMPETITIVE PRIVATE SECTOR .......................................................... 53
7.3.1. Strategy 1: Promote quality and productivity........................................................................ 53
7.3.2. Strategy 2: Facilitate increased domestic and international trade ..................................... 54
7.3.3. Strategy 3: Improve access to finance for production and exports ................................... 54
8. HUMAN AND SOCIALDEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 56
8.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 56
8.2. CURRENT STATUS ....................................................................................................................................... 56
8.3. CONSTRAINTS............................................................................................................................................ 58
8.4. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED EDUCATION AND SKILLS DEVELOPMENT .......................... 59
8.4.1. Strategy 1: Enhance access to quality, equitable and inclusive education ...................... 59
8.4.2. Strategy 2: Improve Technical, Vocational and Entrepreneurship skills ............................. 60
8.4.3. Strategy 3: Increased access to higher education ............................................................... 61
8.4.4. Strategy 4: Enhance science, technology and innovation .................................................. 61
8.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED HEALTH AND NUTRITION ..................................................... 62
8.5.1. Strategy 1: Strengthen Public health ....................................................................................... 62
8.5.2. Strategy 2: Increase access to quality healthcare ............................................................... 63
8.5.3. Strategy 3: Enhanced Nutrition ................................................................................................ 63
8.5.4. Strategy 4: Strengthen Integrated Health Information Systems ........................................... 64
8.6. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: IMPROVED WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION ...................................... 65
8.6.1. Strategy 1: Improve access to clean and safe water supply .............................................. 65
8.6.2. Strategy 2: Improve Sanitation Services ................................................................................. 65
8.7. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 4: REDUCED POVERTY, VULNERABILITY AND INEQUALITIES .................... 66
8.7.1. Strategy 1: Improved Coordination of Social Protection Programmes ............................... 66
8.7.2. Strategy 2: Enhance welfare and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people .................. 67
8.7.3. Strategy 3: Reduce developmental inequalities ................................................................... 68
9. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ............................................................................................................. 62
9.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 62
9.2. CURRENT SITUATION ................................................................................................................................. 62
9.3. CONSTRAINTS............................................................................................................................................ 63
9.4. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: ENHANCED MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 63
9.4.1. Strategy 1: Strengthen climate change adaptation ............................................................ 64
9.4.2. Strategy 2: Strengthen climate change Mitigation............................................................... 64
9.4.3. Strategy 3: Enhance disaster risk reduction and response ................................................... 64
VI
9.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT ....................................................................................................................................................... 65
9.5.1. Strategy 1: Promote integrated environmental management ........................................... 65
9.5.2. Strategy 2: Enhance natural resources management ......................................................... 66
10. A GOOD GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT .............................................................................................. 68
10.1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 68

10.2 CURRENT STATUS ....................................................................................................................................... 68
10.3 CONSTRAINTS............................................................................................................................................ 69
10.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED POLICY AND GOVERNANCE ENVIRONMENT .................. 69
10.4.1. STRATEGY 1: DECENTRALISE PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEMS ..................................................................... 70
10.4.2. STRATEGY 2: STRENGTHEN NATIONAL DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS ........................................................ 70
10.4.3. STRATEGY 3: STRENGTHEN TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY MECHANISMS ............................................. 71
10.4.4. STRATEGY 4: STRENGTHEN ELECTORAL PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS.................................................................... 71
10.4.5. STRATEGY 5: STRENGTHEN PUBLIC SERVICE PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS ......................................... 71
10.4.6. STRATEGY 6: STRENGTHEN LAND MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION .......................................................... 72
10.5 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS AND CONSTITUTIONALISM
73
10.5.1. STRENGTHEN THE CRIMINAL AND JUSTICE SYSTEM AND ENHANCE RULE OF LAW ...................................................... 73
PART V: MANAGEMENT OF THE PLAN ................................................................................................................. 75

11. IMPLEMENTATION AND COORDINATION FRAMEWORK ....................................................................... 76
1.1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 76
1.2. LESSONS LEARNT IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 7NDP .................................................................... 77
1.2.1. The integrated multi-sectoral approach enhances the implementation of the Plan ....... 77
1.2.2. Enhanced participation can be achieved through operationalisation of Ward
Development Committees ....................................................................................................................... 77
1.3. COORDINATION MECHANISM ............................................................................................................... 77
1.3.1. National level coordination and implementation arrangements ....................................... 77
1.3.2. Sectoral level coordination and implementation ................................................................. 77
1.3.3. Provincial level coordination and implementation .............................................................. 78
1.3.4. District level coordination and implementation .................................................................... 78
1.3.5. Local Authorities ....................................................................................................................... 78
1.3.6. Ward Development Committees ........................................................................................... 78
1.4. ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF VARIOUS INSTITUTIONS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE PLAN ...... 79
1.4.1. Parliament ................................................................................................................................. 79
1.4.2. Cabinet...................................................................................................................................... 80
1.4.3. Cabinet Office .......................................................................................................................... 80
1.4.4. Ministry responsible for Finance and National Planning ....................................................... 80
1.4.5. Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development ....................................................... 80
1.4.6. Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies.............................................................. 80
1.4.7. Private Sector ............................................................................................................................ 80
1.4.8. Civil Society Organisations....................................................................................................... 81
1.4.9. Cooperating Partners............................................................................................................... 81
PART VI: FINANCING OF THE PLAN ..................................................................................................................... 82
12. FINANCING THE 8NDP ............................................................................................................................ 83

12.1. OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................. 83
12.2. TRADITIONAL SOURCES OF FINANCE................................................................................................. 83
12.3. ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FINANCE FOR THE PLAN ........................................................................ 85
12.3.1. No Cost Finance ....................................................................................................................... 85
12.3.2. Low-Cost Finance ..................................................................................................................... 86
12.4. INTEGRATED NATIONAL FINANCING FRAMEWORK ......................................................................... 88
12.5. THE REFORMS ........................................................................................................................................ 88
13. PRECONDITIONS, ASSUMPTIONS AND RISK MANAGEMENT ................................................................ 89
13.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 89
13.2. PRECONDITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................... 89
13.2.1. Preconditions ............................................................................................................................ 89
VII
Political will and Commitment .................................................................................................................. 89
Stabilisation of the macroeconomic fundamentals .............................................................................. 89
Effective management of the COVID-19 pandemic............................................................................. 89
Enhanced Capacity to Respond to catastrophic events ..................................................................... 90
Effective accountability frameworks ....................................................................................................... 90
A value-centred citizenry .......................................................................................................................... 90
Climate change management ................................................................................................................ 90
13.2.2. Assumptions............................................................................................................................... 90
Local and Regional economic and political stability ............................................................................ 90
Stakeholder support towards the implementation of the plan ............................................................. 90
Favourable commodity prices ................................................................................................................. 90
Favourable Climatic Conditions ............................................................................................................... 91
Financing the Plan ..................................................................................................................................... 91
13.3. RISK MANAGEMENT........................................................................................................................................ 91
13.4. EXAMPLES OF RISKS: - ..................................................................................................................................... 93
14. MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK ................................................................................... 94
14.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 94
14.2. THE MANAGEMENT MONITORING SYSTEM ........................................................................................... 95
14.3. MONITORING ............................................................................................................................................ 95
14.1.1. Spot Monitoring......................................................................................................................... 95
14.1.2. Reporting ................................................................................................................................... 95
Semi-annual Reporting .............................................................................................................................. 96
Annual Progress Reporting ........................................................................................................................ 96
14.2. EVALUATION ............................................................................................................................................. 96
14.2.1. Mid-Term Review ...................................................................................................................... 96
14.2.2. Final Evaluation ......................................................................................................................... 96
14.3. DATA CATALOGUE................................................................................................................................... 97
15. ANNEX 1: SAMPLE – DETAILED IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ....................................................................... 98
VIII
List of Figures
CONCEPTUAL MODEL ...................................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
REAL GDP GROWTH RATE TARGETS, OUTCOMES, PROJECTIONS ........................................................................ 6
FISCAL DEFICITS, 2006-2020SOURCE: MINISTRY OF FINANCE ............................................................................. 7
INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE AND LENDING INTEREST RATES SOURCE: BOZ FORTNIGHTLY STATISTICS AND
ZAMSTATS NATIONAL ACCOUNTS ............................................................................................................. 8
NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORTS AND TRADITIONAL EXPORTS EARNINGS (US$' MILLION)SOURCE: ZAMBIA STATISTICS
AGENCY ................................................................................................................................................. 9
COPPER, NON-TRADITIONAL EXPORT EARNINGS AND GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (US$' MILLION)SOURCE:
ZAMBIA STATISTICS AGENCY AND BANK OF ZAMBIA ................................................................................... 9
ZAMBIA’S FDI INFLOWS PERFORMANCE (2006-2020) ..................................................................................... 10
SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS ............................................................................................................ 11
TOP-3 SECTOR CONCENTRATION RATIO (% OF TOTAL GDP)............................................................................ 12
COPPER EXPORTS (%OF TOTAL EXPORTS) BY COUNTRY/REGIONSOURCE: CONSTRUCTED FROM UNCTAD STATS 13
POVERTY TRENDS, 2006 – 2015SOURCE: ZAMBIA STATISTICS AGENCY, LIVING CONDITIONS MONITORING SURVEY
REPORTS ................................................................................................................................................ 15
EDUCATION ENROLMENT AND PROGRESSION INDICATORS 2006 – 2020SOURCE: MINISTRY OF EDUCATION,
EDUCATION STATISTICAL BULLETINS .......................................................................................................... 18
ZAMBIA CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX FROM 2012-2021SOURCE: TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL, ZAMBIA. 19
POPULATION AGE AND SEX STRUCTURE, ZAMBIA 2030 ..................................................................................... 22
THE DESIRED POPULATION STRUCTURE FOR HARNESSING THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ..................................... 24
URBANISATION TRENDS IN ZAMBIA 1950 TO 2050 ............................................................................................ 25
SITUATING THE 8NDP IN THE VISION 2030 ........................................................................................................ 40
OVERALL INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR COORDINATION......................................................................... 79
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FINANCE................................................................................................................. 85
DIAGRAMMATIC REPRESENTATION OF THE 8NDP RESULTS FRAMEWORK ............................................................ 94
IX
List of Tables
ZAMBIA’S POPULATION STRUCTURE, 2010, 2015 AND 2020 ................................................................................................ 10
EMPLOYMENT RATE, 2005 TO 2020 ................................................................................................................................... 13
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 2005 TO 2020 .................................................................................................................... 14
FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTOR, 2008 TO 2020 ............................................................................................................... 14
ACCESS TO WATER, SANITATION AND ELECTRICITY, 2007-2018 ........................................................................................... 17
KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF HIGH FERTILITY ..................................................................................................... 22
SELECTED POPULATION AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS .......................................................................................................... 23
KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ATTAINING THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ............................................................ 24
KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF RAPID URBANISATION ........................................................................................... 25
KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF HUMAN SETTLEMENTS AND HOUSING ..................................................................... 27
KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT COVID-19 PRESENTS....................................................................................... 28
KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ...................................................................... 30
KEY MACROECONOMIC I NDICATORS OVER THE PLAN PERIOD .............................................................................................. 33
STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMMES ......................................................................................................................................... 50
ESTIMATE OF RESOURCES, 2022-2026 ............................................................................................................................... 84
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT NON-DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE, 2022-2026 ............................................................................ 84
NO COST FINANCE. .......................................................................................................................................................... 86
LOW-COST FINANCE) ....................................................................................................................................................... 87
X
PART I: DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
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1 INTRODUCTION
1. The Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP) sets out Zambia’s medium-term
strategic direction, development priorities and implementation strategies for the period 2022
to 2026. This Plan is a successor to the Seventh National Development Plan that was
implemented over the period 2017 to 2021 and the fourth in the series of National
Development Plans (NDPs) towards the national Vision 2030 in which Zambians aspire to live in
a prosperous middle-income nation. As the penultimate Plan, the 8NDP will play a pivotal role
as a building block towards the attainment of the national vision.
2. The Plan is equally a critical vehicle to support the attainment of Zambia’s international
commitments under various frameworks including in the last decade of action towards the
realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and delivery on Africa We Want,
espoused in the African Union Agenda 2063 and the SADC Regional Indicative Strategic
Development Plan (RISDP). These international frameworks, therefore, inform the direction of
the 8NDP given the consistency between their identified development priority actions with the
country’s developmental needs.
3. The 8NDP takes cognizance of the country’s developmental context, opportunities and
challenges being faced towards actualising the Vision 2030. It is being formulated against the
backdrop of a challenging economic situation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The
current state of development indicates persisting socio-economic challenges which include
low diversification of the economy, youth unemployment, high incidences of poverty and
inequality, slow pace of decentralisation as well as low education outcomes coupled with
inadequate access to other social services. To overcome these challenges and attain Vision
by 2030, the 8NDP introduces strategic interventions anchored on Economic Transformation

and Job Creation, Human and Social Development, Environmental Sustainability and Good
Government.
4. The economic transformation and job creation agenda will be the key pillar of the plan
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and aim at facilitating trade and increased investment by the private sector to increase
production, value addition and diversification of goods and services. The key drivers will be the
agriculture, mining, tourism, and manufacturing sectors and will be supported by strategic
interventions in the energy, transport, and water development sectors. Investments will be
facilitated in ICT and science and technology to support digital transformation and innovation
as key enablers under this pillar. The other strategic development areas will ultimately support
the country’s economic transformation agenda. To this end, investments will be made towards
the creation of a human capital reserve, coupled with interventions towards the eradication
of poverty and inequality as well as reduction of socioeconomic disparities among regions.
The strategic development area on environmental sustainability will involve the mainstreaming
of green interventions, including climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across
all sectors for sustainable growth and development. Government will also implement
interventions that will provide a conducive and enabling socio-economic for economic
transformation and job creation.
5. Among the key interventions to accelerate the attainment of the development

objectives in the strategic development areas, will be full implementation of decentralisation
by devolution. This will result in the transfer of functions, fiscal and other resources as well as
power, ownership and responsibility of decision-making from the Central Government level to
the Local Government level. Figure 1 illustrates the change process envisioned in the Plan.
2
6. Building on the successes and the lessons learnt from the implementation of the
previous NDPs, and informed by the developmental challenges facing the country, the theme
of the 8NDP is “Socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods” The overall aim is to
improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy to sustainably lift the living
standards of the people. The theme emphasises the need to build and get back on track
towards the realisation of the Vision 2030 through economic recovery, stabilisation and steady
growth, coupled with interventions in the social sectors to realise the socio-economic

transformation that will ultimately uplift the livelihoods of the Zambian people.
1.1 THE DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
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The 8NDP was formulated in line with the provisions of the National Planning and
Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020 and the National Planning and Budgeting Policy of 2014. This legal
and policy framework provides for a coordinated and integrated national development
planning and budgeting process that is participatory, responsive and results-oriented.
8.
9.
10. The 8NDP builds on the multi-sectoral integrated development planning approach
introduced in the 7NDP. This approach goes beyond articulating sectoral and provincial
interventions by ensuring that there is horizontal and vertical integration and convergence in
the execution of interventions across sectors and provinces. Further, this approach creates and
enhances existing synergies among the different stakeholders and sectors, and increases the
general effectiveness of programme budgeting, implementation and reporting. This approach
also provides a framework for the domestication of international and regional multilateral and
bilateral development strategies.
11. The formulation of the Plan used both the top-down and bottom-up approaches. The
top-down approach entailed analysing the cause-effect of the country’s developmental
challenges and opportunities through research and extensive consultations. The top-down
approach involved the setting, by policymakers, of the strategic direction for the country’s
development aspirations as well as the implementation of international commitments. On the
other hand, the bottom-up approach involved the provision of input by the public and private
sector, civil society organisations including the youth, women, the aged, people living with
disabilities and ordinary citizens. The academia and think tanks as well as cooperating also
partners participated in the formulation of the 8NDP. The stakeholders were engaged through
3
in-person and virtual meetings, roundtable discussions as well as solicited written submissions.
This was done to achieve ownership of the Plan
1.2 OUTLINE OF THE PLAN
12. The Plan is structured in five parts as follows: Part I provides the development context.
It contains the past performance and opportunities and challenges of Zambia’s development;
Part II presents the macroeconomic framework in which the Plan will be executed. Part III
highlights what it will take to move towards the Vision 2030 and encompasses the goal and
the strategic objectives of the 8NDP. Part IV, on the other hand, presents the strategic direction
of the Plan. The financing framework as well as the implementation and coordination
arrangements, including the monitoring and evaluation framework of the Plan is discussed in
Part V.

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2 PAST PERFORMANCE
2.1. OVERVIEW
13. The scope of the past performance analysis is limited to the period 2006 to 2021, which
is the period in which the Fifth to Seventh National Development Plans were implemented. The
2006 to 2021 period also accounts for slightly over half the period of implementation of NDPs
towards the actualisation of the national Vision 2030. This, therefore, provides an opportunity
to reflect on the progress made thus far, lessons learned from the NDPs implementation and
the emergent local, regional and global environment in which the country’s development
trajectory is to be contextualised. The review of past performance provides the baseline upon
which the strategies, goals and objectives of the 8NDP are hinged. Further, it highlights the
achievements scored and challenges faced in the implementation of the national
development plans.
2.2. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
2.2.1. Economic Growth
14. In the Vision 2030, the Government’s objective has been to attain and sustain annual
real economic growth rates of between 6 and 10 percent. During the period 2006 to 2010,
annual real GDP growth rates were favourable, averaging about 8.7 percent, with a peak
registered at 10.3 percent in 2010.The growth was mainly driven by the construction, transport
and mining sectors. In the years between 2011 and 2016, the economic growth rate averaged
4.9 percent driven significantly by wholesale and retail trade while others included Information
and communication sectors. The wholesale and retail trade was mainly driven by the country’s
open trade regime coupled with low growth in the local manufacturing sector, while
performance in the construction sector was mainly driven by increased activity, coupled with
a lower price of cement.
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During the period 2017-2020, the average real growth rate fell to 1.6 percent supported
by information and communication, financial and insurance and the mining sectors. Factors
constraining growth included the erratic rainfall experienced in the 2017/2018 farming season
which adversely affected agricultural production and reduced the country’s hydro-power
generation capacity, leading to power deficits. This is turn reduced the contribution to GDP of
key sectors such as manufacturing.
16. Further, in 2020, economic growth contracted by 2.8 percent, registering the first
recession since 1998. This was mainly on account of the poor performance in the wholesale
and retail trade which recorded negative 12.4 percent growth due to disruptions in economic
activity arising from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, other sectors
such as agriculture, mining and information and communication Technology performed
positively at 17.2 percent, 8 percent, and 14.3 percent respectively. The agriculture sector
contributed to the GDP largely due to the improvement in access to inputs and improved
agricultural practices.
5
Figure 1: Real GDP Growth Rate targets, Outcomes, Projections
12.0%
10.0% FNDP period
8.0% SNDP period
6.0% 7NDP period
4.0% Vision 2030 (T)
2.0% 7NDP (T)
0.0% National Budget (T)
MOF (P)
-2.0%
Zamstats (O)
-4.0%
2008
2010
2006
2007
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Note: (T) = target; (O) = outcome; (P) = projection Source: constructed
2.2.2. Fiscal Performance
17. Fiscal performance over the period 2006 to 2020 remained challenging and below the
set targets (see Figure 4). This was largely on account of expenditure pressures from higher
than programmed expenditure on the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) and higher than
anticipated capital project financing coupled with higher than programmed interest
payments on foreign debt.
18. During the period 2017 to 2020, the fiscal deficit averaged 9.7 percent of GDP
exceeding the 7NDP set target of 3 percent. The total expenditure outturns were on average

7.2 percent above the set budget targets while total revenues fairly performed due to the
implementation of revenue-enhancing measures. In 2020, however, revenues were 10.2
percent below target due to the constrained economic activity resulting from the COVID-19
pandemic. Further, during 7NDP period, discretionary spending drastically reduced from 19.5
19.
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percent in 2017 to 4.0 percent in 2020.
The widening fiscal deficits led to public debt rising beyond 100 percent of GDP in 2020,
exceeding the sustainability threshold of 35 percent. Towards the end of the 7NDP, the
issuance of a COVID-19 Bond to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 also increased domestic
debt. The rising debt stock and debt service coupled with eroded fiscal space not only limited
the extent to which long-term targets for the 7NDP were achieved, but also reduced policy
flexibility to stimulate economic growth towards the end of the 7NDP.
6
Figure 2: Fiscal Deficits, 2006-2020
16.0%
14.4%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0% 9.1%
8.0%
6.5%
6.0%
4.0% 5.5%
2.0%
0.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Projected Fiscal Deficit (%) Actual Fiscal Defict (%)
Source: Ministry of Finance
2.2.3. Monetary and Financial Sector Performance
20. Inflation remained relatively stable during the period 2006 to 2020, averaging 10.6
percent. During the 7NDP period, inflationary pressures rose as inflation averaged 11.5
percent, up from an average of 9.6 percent during the previous Plan period. The rise in
inflationary pressures during the review period was on account of increased food prices arising
from the adverse impact of erratic rainfall on agriculture output and the pass-through from the
depreciation of the Kwacha, partly induced by the decline in foreign exchange earnings.
21. The Kwacha to United States Dollar exchange rate was characterised by volatility
circulation
during the period 2006 to 2020, with the Kwacha averaging K6.90 per US dollar. During the
7NDP period, the Kwacha depreciated to an average of K14.35 per US dollar compared to
K7.09 in the previous plan period. The economy’s dependence on limited sources of foreign
exchange earnings, imports for both production and consumption goods as well as the
reduction in foreign exchange earnings on account of lower copper prices, explain the
Kwacha’s depreciation during the 7NDP period.
22. Lending rates remained relatively high during the period under review. High yield rates
on Government securities due to increased domestic borrowing kept lending rates at elevated
levels averaging 25.1 percent in 2020 compared to 29.5 percent in 2016. Government’s
increased domestic borrowing and the resultant high lending rates crowded out the private
sector and reduced private sector productive capacity, job creation capabilities and
development in general.
23. Figure 3 highlights the performance of selected indicators of the sector for the period
January 2010 to December 2019.
7
Figure 3: Inflation, Exchange Rate Change and Lending Interest Rates
40.0% 120.0%
30.0% 100.0%
20.0%
80.0%
10.0%
60.0%
0.0%
40.0%
-10.0%
-20.0% 20.0%
-30.0% 0.0%
Jul, 2010
Jul, 2011
Jul, 2012
Jul, 2013
Jul, 2014
Jul, 2015
Jul, 2016
Jul, 2017
Jul, 2018
Jul, 2019
Jul, 2020
Jul, 2021
Jan, 2010
Jan, 2011
Jan, 2012
Jan, 2013
Jan, 2014
Jan, 2015
Jan, 2016
Jan, 2017
Jan, 2018
Jan, 2019
Jan, 2020
Jan, 2021
Inflation (%) [left axis] Exchange rate (% change) [left axis]
Avg. lending interest rate (%) [left axis]
Source: BOZ Fortnightly Statistics and ZamStats National Accounts
24. The overall financial performance and condition of the banking sector remained
satisfactory as the sector was adequately capitalised and profitable during the period 2006 to
2020. This was largely on account of adequate capital which averaged 21.5 percent,

satisfactory earnings performance and liquidity conditions. Asset quality was, however,
adversely rated in 2020 as the level of non-performing loans rose to 11.6 percent from 9.7
percent in 2016 due to the deterioration in business conditions which impaired the cash flows
of most businesses and households. In addition, profitability declined due to International
circulation
Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS9) impairment losses on Government securities following the
sovereign credit rating downgrade to default status.
2.2.4. External Sector Performance
25. During the 7NDP, the IMF granted Zambia a condition-free Special Drawing Rights gift
equivalent to US $1.33 billion in August 2021. Part of the Special Drawing Rights will be used to
support the 2022 Budget.
26. During the period 2006 to 2020, Zambia recorded current account surpluses which
averaged 1.7 percent of GDP per annum. However, during the 7NDP period, current account
surpluses rose to an average of 2.5 percent of GDP. This outturn in the current account was
attributable to the accumulation of financial assets by the private sector, mostly mining
companies.
27. The country’s merchandise exports continued to be dominated by minerals, essentially

copper from Traditional Exports, over the period 2006 to 2020. Figure 5 shows that the
dominance of Traditional Exports in which copper exports continued during the 7NDP period
with export earnings accounting for US$5.9 billion, or 75.1 percent of total goods exports, in
2020 compared to US$6.1 billion or 76.0 percent of goods exports, in 2017. On average, copper
earnings accounts for 96.6 percent from Traditional Exports for the period 2006 to2020.
Conversely, non-traditional commodity exports remained quite flat during the 7NDP period,
suggesting that very little, export diversification away from the traditional commodities took
place.
8
Figure 4: Non-traditional Exports and Traditional Exports Earnings (US$' million)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TE''s NTE''s
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency
Figure 5: Copper, Non-traditional Export Earnings and Gross International Reserves (US$' million)
8,000.0 3500
7,000.0 3000
6,000.0
2500

5,000.0
4,000.0
2000
1500
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
circulation 1000
500
0.0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Copper Exports Non-Tradition Exports Gross International Reserves (RHS)
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency and Bank of Zambia
28. The figure above further shows that between 2006 and 2014, Gross International
Reserves (GIRs) steadily increased. This was in part due to Zambia’s attainment of the Highly
Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative completion point in 2006 which entailed significant
debt relief assistance and helped ease pressure on GIR over the years. Additionally, the
issuance of three Eurobonds, amounting to a total of US$3.0 billion, increased GIRs to an all-
time high of US$3.1 billion in 2014.
29. Over the period 2017 to 2020, however, there was a gradual decline in international
reserve, contracting by an annual average of 12 percent in nominal US$ terms. GIRs declined
from US$2.1 billion, equivalent to 2.9 months of import cover, in 2017 to US$1.2 billion, equivalent
to 2.4 months of import cover, in 2020. External debt service payments, rose to US$1.2 billion in
2020. This limited opportunities to accumulate foreign reserves, contributed to the decline in
GIR.
9
30. With regard to Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), the average inflows from 2006 to 2020
were US$1,093.6 million per year. In 2020 inflows were US$172.8 million representing 0.05 percent
of GDP compared to US$615.8 million in 2006 representing 4.8 percent of GDP. Mining
continued to be the largest destination for FDI inflows. Performance in terms of FDI during the
review period was largely attributable to changes in tax policy in the mining sector,
international commodity prices, particularly copper, opening up new mines and expansion of
existing mines, and the unfavourable macroeconomic environment.
Figure 6: Zambia’s FDI Inflows Performance (2006-2020)
FDI Inflows
2500 10
9
2000 8
7
1500 6
5
1000 4
3
500 2
1
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
FDI Flows (US$' million) % of GDP

Source: Bank of Zambia
2.3. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
31.
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Zambia’s population grew at an average rate of 2.8 percent per annum in the period
2006 to 2020. The population was recorded at 13.1 million people in 2010 and it was estimated
at 17.9 million in 2020. The population distribution in the period under review indicated that
about 46 per cent of the population is aged below 15 years. With this scenario, Zambia’s child
dependency ratio remains high, estimated at an average of 88 persons aged 0-15 years per
100 persons aged 15-64 years in the period under review.
32. Zambia’s population is higher in rural than in urban areas. The population in rural areas
was 7.9 million in 2010 and was estimated at 10.1 million in 2020. On the other hand, the
population in urban areas was 5.2 million in 2010 and was estimated at 7.8 million in 2020. Table
1 shows the population structure in 2010 and the projections up to 2020.
Table 1: Zambia’s Population Structure, 2010, 2015 and 2020

POPULATION 2010 2015 2020
Total 13,092,666 15,473,905 17,885,422

0-14 Years 5,943,169 7,129,419 8,149,123
15-64 Years 6,803,054 7,934,671 9,273,241
65 Years and Above 346,443 409,815 463,058
Rural 7,919,216 9,001,647 10,132,811
Urban 5,173,450 6,472,258 7,752,611
10
Overall Dependency Ratio 92.5 95.0 92.9
Child Dependency Ratio 87.4 89.9 87.9
33. During the period under review, the country recorded reductions in the pregnancy-
related maternal deaths. The maternal related deaths reduced from 591 deaths per 100,000
live births in 2007 to 278 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018. The Maternal Mortality Ratio
(MMR) was recorded at 252 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2018. The Infant Mortality Rate
(IMR) reduced from 70 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007 to 42 deaths in 2018, while the Under
Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) reduced from 119 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007 to 61 deaths
in 2018.
34. The country also experienced a reduction in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from an
average of 6.2 births per woman in 2007 to 4.7 births in 2018. This reflected an improvement in
the key human development indicators for the country. The selected demographic indicators
highlighted above are shown in Figure 7 below:
Figure 7: Selected Demographic Indicators

600 591
500
400 398
300
278
200 119
75 61
100
70 45 42
0
2007
6.2
2013/14
5.3
2018
4.7
MMR IMR U5MR TFR
circulation
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Zambia Demographic and Health Survey Reports
11
2.4. PERFORMANCE IN KEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREAS
2.4.1. Economic Diversification and Job Creation
2.4.1.1 Economic Diversification
35. Economic diversification has been promoted as a strategy to encourage sustainable

positive economic growth and development as well as create an economy that is resilient to
external shocks. In Zambia’s case, the agenda has been to move away from heavy
dependence on copper mining, which is capital intensive with weak linkages to the rest of the
economy in terms of employment generation.
36. During the period under review, it was observed that despite Government efforts
towards economic diversification, the pace and level of diversification remained low. The
structure of the GDP continued to exhibit heavy dependence on wholesale and retail trade,
mining and quarrying, as well as construction.
37. In the FNDP and SNDP periods, the concentration ratio of the top-3 sectors in GDP
averaged 43.6 percent and remained high over the 7NDP period, estimated at 45.4 percent
as shown in Figure 7. The top-3 sectors were wholesale and retail trade (19.3 percent), mining
and quarrying (15.9 percent) and construction (10.2 percent).
Figure 8: Top-3 Sector Concentration Ratio (% of total GDP)
45.4%
44.7%
43.9%

43.0%
circulation
2006-2010 2011-2016 2017-2020 Avg (2006-2020)
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, National Accounts Statistics
38. Other measures of economic diversification, such as export concentration and

diversification within sectors, revealed a similar picture. For instance, while Zambia accounted
for a small percentage of total world copper exports estimated at 2.4 percent in 2019, its
copper exports as a share of total exports per year averaged above 66 percent. In
comparison, Chile and Peru, whose percentage share in world copper exports were higher at
18.6 percent and 8.7 percent respectively, recorded a lower percentage share of copper
exports in their total exports at 51 percent and 39 percent, respectively. (Figure 9).
12
Figure 9: Copper Exports (%of Total Exports) by Country/Region
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Chile: Copper (% of total exports) DRC: Copper (% of total exports)
Peru: Copper (% of total exports) Zambia: Copper (% of total exports)
World: Copper (% of total exports)
Source: Constructed from UNCTAD Stats1
39. The slow pace and low level of economic diversification have also contributed towards
the weak link between growth, poverty reduction and job creation. Economic diversification
therefore remains an important policy issue to pursue in order to unlock the country’s potential
for industrial and manufacturing growth, employment creation as well as growth in exports
and revenues.
2.4.1.2 Employment
40. During the period under review, the employment rate reduced from 38.5 percent in
2005 to 32.9 percent in 2020. The employment rate was higher in urban areas, increasing from

27.0 percent to 42.5 per cent over the same period. On the other hand, rural areas
experienced a contraction in employment from 45.5 percent to 23.1 percent during the same
period. The rate was higher for males, reflecting gender disparities in employment over the
same period as shown in Table 2.
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Table 2: Employment Rate, 2005 to 2020
Sex Residence
Year
Both Sexes Male Female Rural Urban
2005 38.5 41.0 36.5 45.5 27.0
2008 34.3 36.2 32.5 39.2 26.9
2012 35.0 35.4 34.5 38.5 30.5
2014 36.0 35.3 36.6 38.4 33.0
20172 32.8 41.7 24.7 24.5 42.5
19.4 42.3
38.5 22.7
2020 30.2
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Labour Force Survey Reports
In 2008, the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry had the highest share at 71.3 percent) of employed
persons followed by Wholesale and Retail Trade at 9.2 percent. However, in 2019 Wholesale and Retail
1 https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx
2 Note that from 2017, the definition of Employment and Unemployment changed in line with the resolutions of the 19 th International
Conference of Labour Statisticians (19th ICLS) of 2013 and thus provides a different Labour force profile for the Economy.
13
Trade accounted for the highest share of employment at 27.9 percent followed by Agriculture, Forestry
and Fishing at 22.2 percent. The Manufacturing sector contributed 7.9 percent while the Construction
sector contribution was 4.9 percent3.
41. The unemployment rate among the youth continued to be higher than the national
average except for the year 2005. Disparities in gender and residence were also observed.
(See Table 3).
Table 3: Youth Unemployment Rate, 2005 to 2020

Youth Unemployment Rate
Year Overall Unemployment
Rate Both Sexes Male Female Rural Urban
2005 16.0 14.0 4.0 22.0 7.0 23.0
2008 7.9 14.0 14.9 13.1 5.5 36.0
2012 7.8 10 8.5 11.3 4.4 17.2
2017 12.6 17.4 16.2 19.1 15.7 18.5
2020 13.8 19.9 17.6. 22.9 18. 20.8
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Labour force Survey Reports
42. The economy continued to be dominated by growing informal employment

opportunities due to fewer formal employment opportunities being created. This was
attributable to low job creation by key sectors such as mining, tourism, retail and wholesale
trade. The rate of changes in formal and informal employment also varied according to
gender and residence. At a national level, 11.1 percent of the economy was comprised of
the formal sector in 2008. This percentage increased to 29.4 percent in 2020. Additionally,
formal sector employment was higher in urban than rural areas. (See Table 4).

43. On the other hand, rural areas had a higher prevalence of informal employment at
95.8 percent than in urban areas at 70.5 percent in 2008. This pattern persisted with the
prevalence of informal employment in rural areas recorded at 62.8 percent compared to 47.8
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percent in urban areas in 2020.
Table 4: Formal and Informal Sector, 2008 to 2020

Formal Sector Informal Sector
Year
Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
2008 11.1 4.2 29.5 88.9 95.8 70.5
2012 15.4 5.5 31.3 84.6 94.5 68.7
2017 45.7 33.1 54.1 31.1 37.6 26.7
2020 29.4 14.2 37.3 52.9 62.8 47.8
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Labour force Survey Reports
2.4.2. Poverty and Vulnerability Reduction
44. During the review period, poverty remained persistently high. The poverty levels in 2006
stood at 62.8 percent with the proportion of people living in extreme poverty recorded at 42.7
percent. By 2015, total poverty reduced to 54.4 percent while extreme poverty marginally
reduced to 40.8 percent. Poverty remained higher in rural areas at 76.6 percent compared to
23.4 percent in urban areas as of 2015. These persistently high poverty levels were mostly
attributed to inadequate access to decent jobs and income generation activities. Figure 9
below shows poverty trends for the period 2006-2015.
3 2019 Labour Force Survey Zambia
14
Figure 10: Poverty Trends, 2006 – 2015
2006 2010 2015
62.8
60.5
54.4
45.6
42.7
42.3
40.8
39.5
37.2
Percent
20.1
18.2
13.6
TOTAL EXTREMELY POOR MODERATELY POOR NON POOR
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Reports
Poverty as measured by the Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) equally showed an

improving trend from 50 percent in 2014 to 44 percent in 2018.
45. The 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) showed high levels of poverty for
female-headed households at 56.7 percent compared to those headed by their male
counterparts at 53.8 percent. Similarly, there were higher levels of poverty in rural areas among
female than male headed households at 78.9 percent and 76.0 percent, respectively. In urban

areas, there were relatively higher levels of poverty among female than male-headed
households. The overall poverty levels among households with female heads was 19.6 percent
compared to 21.7 percent for households with male heads.
46.
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The poverty distribution pattern was similar among households considered extremely
poor, with female-headed households recording 5 percentage points more than the
households headed by their male counterparts, at 64.9 percent and 59.9 percent,
respectively.
47. During the implementation period of the Fifth National Development Plan (2006-2010)
and Revised-Sixth National Development Plan (R-SNDP) 2013 to 2016, vulnerability was
prominent in both rural and urban areas. This was attributed to various factors including job
losses in the mining sector and HIV and AIDS. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009
resulted in lower copper prices which contributed to weakening the fiscal position of the
country. This contributed to lower spending on social protection programmes thus impacting
on vulnerability. Similarly, the rural populace was vulnerable as a result of its inability to afford
agricultural inputs and lack of access to socioeconomic services to reduce vulnerability. The
able and productive youth in the informal sector, still faced economic vulnerability due to low
incomes and wages, lack of employment and lack of capital for small scale enterprises.
48. In this regard, and leading into the 7NDP, Government continued scaling up social
protection programmes and service delivery targeting the extremely vulnerable and pro-poor
sector as evidenced by increased funding through annual budgetary allocations as well as
Development Cooperating Partners (CPs) commitments. The country’s social protection sector
had made considerable progress witnessed by the following notable milestones, particularly
during the 7NDP period:
a. Establishment of a comprehensive policy framework backed by ambitious targets

and commitments,
15
b. Scaling up of the Social Cash Transfer to all 116 districts and expansion coverage
within districts,
c. Formulation and publishing of the Integrated Framework for Basic Social Protection
Programmes (IFBSPP),
d. Integration of various programmes considered for the Cash Plus ranging from Food
Security Pack (FSP), Women Empowerment, Supporting Women’s Livelihoods (SWL)
and Public Welfare Assistance Scheme,
49. Other developments included strengthening the provision of child protection
case management to Vulnerable Children and Adolescents (VCA), advancing child
rights, including in the area of child welfare and protection. Government also actively
pursued innovative ways to implement both social protection and disaster -related
responses as evidenced through the development of new systems such as Zambia
Integrated Social Protection Information System (ZISPIS) and the roll-out of new
programmes such as the COVID – 19 Emergency Cash Transfer (ECT) in 25 Districts.
50. Overall performance of reduced vulnerability associated with HIV and AIDS
prevalence rate has been on track, reducing from 13.7 percent in 2006 to 11.1 percent
in 2018. HIV and AIDS prevalence in urban areas among women age 15- 19 increased
from 5.5 percent to 6.6 percent, while rural areas recorded a decline from 5.9 percent
to 3.2 percent. For men age 15 -19 in urban areas, the rate increased from 4.3 percent
to 5.9 percent over the review period, while for those in rural areas, it reduced from
3.0 percent to 2.5 percent. For women in urban areas aged between 20 to 24, HIV
and AIDS prevalence reduced from 18.8 percent to 15.4 percent, while in rural areas
there was an increase from 6.5 percent to 6.9 percent. For men living in urban areas
in the same age group, HIV and AIDS prevalence increased from 7.6 percent to 9.1

percent, and an increase was recorded in rural areas from 2.9 percent to 5.3 percent.
51. Among other issues, this result highlighted the importance of allocating sufficient
circulation
resources both human and financial towards the implementation of national
programmes. In addition, under climate change and Disaster Risk reduction, the
proportion of risks addressed based on the national information system had increased
from 60 percent in 2015 to 82 percent by 2020 and was attributed to particularly
increased investment in Meteorological infrastructure aimed at enhancing the
generation of early warning information and thus provided response to risks and
disasters.
2.4.3. Reducing Developmental Inequalities
52. During the reference period, income inequality, as measured by the Gini Coefficient,
at national level rose from 0.60 in 2006 to 0.65 in 2010 and to 0.69 in 2015. The situation was
worse for rural areas where it increased from 0.54 to 0.60, than for urban areas which improved
from 0.66 to 0.60 from 2006 to 2010. From 2011 to 2015, rural income inequality remained
constant at 0.60 while income inequality increased in urban areas from 0.60 to 0.61. The
increase in the Gini coefficient implies that there is high incidence of inequality in income
distribution in Zambia, which is more prevalent in urban areas.
16
Table 5: Access to Water, Sanitation and Electricity, 2007-2018
INDICATORS 2007 2013/14 2018
Access to an Improved Water Source (Households)
Total 41.1 64.7 72.3
Rural 19.2 46.9 58.0
Urban 82.5 89.6 91.8
Access to an Improved Sanitation Facility (Households)

Total 35.5 45.5 54.4
Rural 17.3 25.8 37.2
Urban 70.0 73.1 77.7
Access to Electricity (Households)

Total 18.5 27.9 34.2
Rural 3.0 3.8 8.4
Urban 47.8 61.5 69.1
Gender Parity Index in schools

Grade 1-7 0.96 0.99 1.02
Grade 8-12 0.86 0.85 0.85

Floor of Housing
Rural
Earth/Sand 85.5 78.2 69.4
Cement circulation 12.4 15.7 24.0
Urban
Earth/Sand 15.5 13.8 11.3
Cement 78.0 76.8 80.7
Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, Zambia Demographic and Health Survey Reports
53. The country recorded improvements in the percentage of the population that had
access to an improved water source, from 41.1 percent in 2007 to 72.3 percent in 2018.
However, there was a disproportionate increase in the percentage of the population that
accessed water from an improved source between rural and urban areas.
54. At a national level, the percentage of households with access to an improved

sanitation facility increased from 35.5 percent in 2007 to 54.4 percent in 2018. In rural areas, the
increase was from 17.3 percent in 2007 to 37.2 percent in 2018. Access to an improved
sanitation facility in urban areas increased from 70 percent in 2007 to 77.7 percent in 2018.
55. In terms of access to electricity, households with access to electricity at a national level
stood at 18.5 percent in 2007. This increased to 34.2 percent in 2018. Access to electricity in
rural areas increased from 3 percent to 8.4 percent in 2007 and 2018, respectively.
56. Improvements were also recorded in Gender parity at primary and secondary
education levels as well as floor of housing as shown in Table 5.
17
2.4.4. Enhancing Human Development
57. The Human Development Index (HDI) for Zambia improved from 0.482 in 2006 to 0.584
in 2020. With regard to health, the country improved access to health facilities and number of
qualified medical personnel as evidenced by the doctor to population ratio and nurse to
population ratio which reduced from 10,886 in 2016 to 5,900 in 2019 and 1,366 in 2016 to 995 in
2019, respectively. Additionally, the proportion of eligible people covered by health insurance
slightly increased from 3.9 percent in 2016 to 29 percent in 2020. However, challenges remain
in ensuring quality of health services through improved stocking of essential medical supplies
as well as increasing the ratio of health personnel to the population.
58. In the education sector, there were general increases recorded in net enrolment and
completion rates at secondary school level in the review period. The net enrolment rate at this
level of education increased from 31.7 percent in 2006 to 37.6 percent in 2020. The increase in
enrolments rates could be attributed to the relative increase in the number of schools
constructed and the provision of bursary support to vulnerable students. At primary school
level, on the other hand, the net enrolment rate reduced from 96 percent to 81.8 percent in
the same period. This reduction could be attributed to the annexing of Early Childhood
Education (ECE) Centres from primary school infrastructure which commenced in 2004. Figure
10 shows progress in education enrolment and progression indicators at primary and
secondary school level during the review period.
Figure 11: Education Enrolment and Progression Indicators 2006 – 2020
2006 2008 2010 2015 2017 2018 2020

102.8
95.8
93.7

87.9
89
83.6
81.8
77
71.7
61.9
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58.7
58.5
57.3
53.8
52.7
51.2
50.7
50.5
47.5
45.9
43.2
42.9
37.6
36
31.8
30.8
28.1
32
20.2
19.8
23
22
17.7
NET ENROLMENT NET ENROLMENT COMPLETION RATE COMPLETION RATE NET INTAKE RATES
PRIMARY SEC G9 G12
Source: Ministry of Education, Education Statistical Bulletins
2.4.5. Creating a Conducive Governance Environment
59. A conducive Governance environment has been recognised as a key ingredient to

achieving Zambia’s aspiration as outlined in the Vision 2030.
60. During the period under review, the country put in place measures that were meant to
curb corruption. The measures included automated audit management system, strengthening
of Integrity Committees, awareness raising, and electronic payment systems as opposed to
cash payment for government services such as Road Transport and Safety Agency Fees, Land
Rates and Forestry Licenses Fees. Efforts have also been made to strengthen internal controls.
However, despite these measures the ranking of Zambia on the Corruption Perception Index
has progressively worsened from 38 out of 100 in 2013 to 33 out of 100 in 2020. The perception
18
of high levels of corruption has impacted on the access and cost of public services and
promote a society that is not inclusive, where the poverty gap worsens.
61. Further, efforts have been made to address the misappropriation and misapplication
of national resources through the strengthening of the Public Financial Management System.
For example, the Auditor General’s Report indicated wasteful expenditure increased by 378
percent from K3.7 million in 2019 to K1.4 billion in 2020. As part of the corrective measures the
OAG has been engaging with Controlling Officers so as to provide an opportunity for them to
clarify and take corrective action on the findings of the audits as well taking punitive actions
on erring institutions and officers. Further, the Public Finance Act, No. 1 of 2018 was enacted
to; strengthen accountability, oversight, management and control of public funds in the public
financial management framework; provide for enhanced responsibilities and fiduciary duties
of controlling officers and Controlling bodies; further enhance cash management systems to
ensure efficient and effective utilisation of public resources.
62. Critical Governance institutions such as the Human Rights Commission, Public
Protector, Financial Intelligence Centre and the Anti-Corruption Commission to a large extent
remained highly centralised with a few decentralised to provincial centres with the districts
remaining underserved during the period under review. This negatively impacted on public
service management and delivery as well as curbing emergent vices that perpetrate socio-
economic inequality.
63. In addition, the Government Effectiveness Index, that measures effectiveness in

services delivery, equally continued to be unfavourable by remaining largely negative from -
0.85 in 2006, increasing to negative -0.68 in 20194 of Government. Further, Zambia’s Corruption
Perception Index has persistently remained high over the period averaging a score of 36 out
of100. and ranked 117 out 180 by end of 2020 compared to the other countries using the same
measure.

Figure 12: Zambia Corruption Perception Index from 2012-2021
circulation
37
38 38 38 38
37
35
34
33
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Transparency International, Zambia
64. The review period witnessed a slow pace in the implementation of the National
Decentralisation Policy as much effort was concentrated on securing a firm foundation for
devolution. Accordingly, during the period under review, only the HIV and AIDS and
Aerodrome functions were devolved to the Local Authorities. Functions related to vehicle
4 World Bank data https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_government_effectiveness/
19
licensing, withholding tax and Companies Registration were delegated to some selected
Local Authorities while some human resource management functions were delegated from
the Service Commissions to the sub-national level. Low participation of citizens in development
at subnational levels presented a challenge and this was exemplified by low numbers of WDCs
that were fully operational. Statistics indicate that there were only 34.4 percent and 17 percent
women in Cabinet and Parliament, respectively. In addition, only 1.21 percent of
parliamentarians were people with disabilities, while youth representation was at 1.82 percent
during the same period. Notwithstanding the low participation of structured community
development Committees provided for under the Decentralisation Policy, a number of
community voluntary groups such as; Community Health Committees, Community WASH
Committees, Community Natural Resources Management Committees, Game Management
Committees, Nutrition Groups continued to work in various sectors to support national
development efforts.
2.5. KEY LESSONS LEARNT
65. The following are the key lessons learned from the implementation of previous National
Development Plans:
(a) In the Zambian context, decentralisation is a necessary precondition for development.

There is need to actualise implementation of this reform agenda for people centred
and sustainable development.
(b) Non-alignment of annual budgets to outputs in the National Development Plans makes
it difficult to see annual budget contribution to the implementation of the Plan;
(c) Setting overly ambitious targets is likely to contribute to poor performance. At the
inception of the Plan, realistic targets should be set, given that it takes time for limiting
factors, such as legislation, required financing, human resources and capacity

enhancements to be actualised;
(d) Bringing on-board key stakeholders in time ensures ownership and timely consensus on
the Plan. Certain stakeholders should be brought on board as soon as possible and
circulation
managed (e.g. updated) throughout the process;
(e) Macroeconomic stability and prudent fiscal management are critical for economic
growth and promote development;
(f) Delays in the processing of Acts or legal provisions negatively affect the
implementation of relevant policies. There is a need to address the bottlenecks in order
to accelerate the reform agenda;
(g) A strong M & E system is essential for timely tracking of progress and informing policy
decisions. There is a need to strengthen M&E at all levels;
(h) Rigorous project appraisal processes are critical to avoid waste of funds and ensure
value for money. It is also important that the anticipated benefits and returns on
investments are assessed as to whether they are in tandem with the objectives of the
Plan;
(i) Undertaking demographic analysis on actual geographic areas and their levels of
deprivation is critical to the development of target-specific programmes and projects;
and
(j) Lack of integration of risk management in the public sector undermines the capacity
to respond in a timely manner when risks emerge, thereby negatively impacting on
achievement of development results.
(k) Frontloading debt-financed projects at the expense of capacity to service the debt
undermines availability of resources to fund developmental programmes.
20
3 OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES FOR ZAMBIA’S
DEVELOPMENT
3.1. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
3.3.1 Population Dynamics and Demographic Dividend
3.3.1. Population Dynamics
66. The population is projected to grow at an average of 2.8 percent per annum between
2020 and 2035 due to the interplay between fertility and mortality and to some extent,
migration.
67. As shown in figure 13, the age and sex structure of Zambia’s population is expected to
remain relatively unchanged up to 2030 unless the implementation of interventions aimed at
reaping the demographic dividend are put in place as highlighted in the next sections. The
broad base of the pyramid depicts Zambia’s young population (where above 80 percent of
the population are children and the youth), indicating high levels of fertility. Zambia’s Total
Fertility Rate remains high at 4.7 in 2018, with higher rates in rural areas at 5.8 compared to
urban areas at 3.4. Teenage pregnancies are also high at 29.0 percent due to among many
reasons, high levels of child marriages in the country. Low utilisation of modern family planning

methods at 48 percent is one of the major contributing factors to high fertility.
68. In addition, the high unmet need for Family Planning at 19 percent for women who are
currently sexually active and are not using any contraceptive method has also contributed to
circulation
the high fertility rates in the country. The high levels of fertility are expected to continue due to
the high number of females who are entering the reproductive age group of 15-49 years.
21
Figure 13: Population Age and Sex Structure, Zambia 2030
Male 80+ Female

75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
18.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
18.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

69. The young population implies that Zambia’s child dependency ratio remains high
estimated at 87.9 per 100 economically active persons in 2020 but is expected to reduce
marginally to 82.6 in 2026. The high child dependency ratio indicates that the economically
active population and the overall economy face a greater burden to support and provide
circulation
the social services needed mostly by children and the aged who are often economically
dependent.
Table 6: Key Challenges and Opportunities of High Fertility

Challenge Implications Opportunities
i. Poor health and wellbeing • Population
outcomes for mothers momentum
and children
High Fertility Rates
ii. High child and maternal
mortality
3.3.1.1. The Demographic Dividend
70. Zambia’s youthful population presents an opportunity for harnessing the Demographic
Dividend. For the country to embark on the demographic dividend pathway, the starting point
is to facilitate rapid fertility decline. Evidence from countries especially the Asian Tigers that
have experienced such fertility decline shows that sustained investments in family planning,
child survival and female education have been the most critical determinants of fertility
decline. Family planning is one of the most successful development interventions, with wide-
ranging benefits to maternal and child health outcomes, empowerment of women, economic
growth, and environmental preservation.
22
71. With the 2020 Child Dependency Ratio estimated at 87.9, Zambia is not yet at the stage
of harnessing the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend will only be attained
when the proportion of the working-age population increases over time as a share of the total
population, and the percentage of both young and old dependents decreases as illustrated
in Figure 13. Harnessing of the Demographic Dividend will depend on the implementation of
appropriate policies and programmes on education, employment, entrepreneurship, health,
including reproductive health and good governance.
72. Countries like Malaysia and Thailand were at the same level of development with
relatively high fertility rates as Zambia in the 1960s. However, these countries took drastically
different development paths through sustained investments in family planning, education,
health, and export-oriented economic reforms, all of which helped to accelerate economic
growth and job creation as well as reducing poverty. Table 8 shows a comparison of key
population and economic indicators for the years 1970 and 2018. As can be seen, both
Thailand and Malaysia have harnessed the demographic dividend due to timely sustained
strategic investments in family planning, health, education and economic diversification.
Table 7: Selected Population and Economic Indicators

Zambia Thailand Malaysia
Indicator 1970 2018 1970 2018 1970 2018
Total Fertility Rate 7.4 4.7 5.6 1.5 5.0s 2.0
Child Dependency Ratio 96.9 84.8 83.8 24.1 84.4 34.6
GDP per Capita (Current
US$) 436.8 1,516.40 192.1 7,296.9 357.7 11, 377.7
GNI, Atlas method (current
US$)/Billon 1.9 25.0 7.6 458.6 4.0 335.6

Source: The World Bank
73. To address the challenge of the high child dependency ratio, the government will
pursue policies and programmes that will change the age structure to the one with a high
circulation
proportion of the working-age population. The change in the age structure will be
accompanied by sustained strategic investments in education, skill development, health, job
creation, entrepreneurship and good governance. This will create opportunities for economic
growth and human development through increased productivity of the relatively large,
educated, skilled and healthy labour force.
23
Figure 14: The Desired Population Structure for Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
Female
Male 80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0
5.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
6.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Source: Demographic Dividend Study Report,2015
3.3.1.2. Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend

74. The First Demographic Dividend which refers to the increase in economic output as a
result of the increase in the working age population will be achieved by lowering the country’s
fertility rates:
•
circulation
A large labour force following rapid fertility decline will increase overall economic
productivity if the labour force is gainfully employed.
Reduced fertility will enable women to spend more years in school, participate in
formal economic activities, which will enhance overall economic productivity.
75. Reduced fertility will lower the total costs of taking care of dependent children
(nutrition, health, education), enabling parents to have more disposable income that they can
use to enhance the level of human capital investment per child, which will help improve
productivity once children grow into working adults.
Table 8: Key Challenges and Opportunities for attaining the Demographic Dividend
High child i. Limited resources to invest • A reservoir for a potential
dependency in human capital large labour force.
development • A potential large market
ii. Low tax revenues because for goods and services
the working-age • Potential broader tax
population has the base for development
greatest tax responsibility. financing
iii. Low productivity, high
poverty and inequality
levels.
24
3.3.2 Rapid Urbanisation
3.3.2.1 Urbanisation and Spatial Dynamics
76. Zambia is one of the most rapidly urbanising sub-Saharan African countries. In 2020, the
percentage of the population living in urban areas was estimated at 43.3 percent and is
estimated to increase to 44.8 percent in 2026. Further, most of Zambia’s urban centres continue
to be located along the line of rail, spanning the north to south development axis. This strip of
land is the most densely populated in the country at 54.5 persons per square kilometre in 2010,
compared to a national average of only 17.4 persons per square kilometre. Spatial dynamics
further show two main urban poles, Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces, which are steadily
establishing metropolitan regions.
Figure 15: Urbanisation Trends in Zambia 1950 to 2050
URBANISATION TRENDS
Sub-Saharan Africa Zambia Central Africa
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0

10.0
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
circulation
Source: UNDESA, Population Division (2018). World Urbanisation Prospects: The 2018 Revision
77. Rapid urbanization has been accompanied by complex urban development

challenges which hamper the socio-economic development of Zambian cities, and their
efficient and effective functioning as engines of national and regional development as well
as centres of social development and cultural change. This situation has posed various social,
economic, physical and environmental challenges as shown in table 9.
Table 9: Key Challenges and Opportunities of Rapid Urbanisation

Increased informal i. Inadequate access to • Agglomeration of firms,
settlements basic infrastructure, labour and consumers
social services and
decent housing
ii. High levels of informal
activities • Promotion of local
iii. Few mixed-use areas economic development
25
Urban sprawl i. Loss of open space and
environmental
amenities. • Delineation of a national
urban system with a clearer
ii. Increase in the cost of hierarchy of settlements
providing key public
services including social
and infrastructure
services.
• Development of compact
cities that reduce the cost
iii. Displacement of rural
of providing infrastructure
populations and
and services.
increased costs of land
and housing.
iv. Lack of city

compactness and • Development of Recycling
density. Enterprises.
v. Inadequate supportive
and functioning systems
• Development of mass
Vulnerability to shocks i. Ease of spread of transit systems.
and stresses infectious water and
airborne diseases such
as tuberculosis, cholera,
and COVID-19

Physical,
Environmental, Social
and Economic
i.
ii.
Environmental
degradation
High unemployment
Carrying Capacity rates
deficits
circulation iii. Inadequate access to
education, health
services and other social
services
iv. Habitat loss
3.3.3 Human Settlements and Housing
78. Urban settlements in Zambia do not offer the optimal economic, social and physical
functions. The settlements are experiencing space limitations, rising service provision costs
associated with lateral growth and deteriorating physical structures.
79. An estimated 70 percent of the country’s urban population reside in informal

settlements. The growth in informal settlements has contributed to an increase in the
encroachment of water recharge and discharge areas, heritage sites, forests, game reserves
and management areas thereby contributing to biodiversity loss and consequently to deficits
in environmental and ecological carrying capacities. Human population size, growth, density,
migration and settlement patterns are some of the key underlying causes of biodiversity loss.
80. Further, statistics show that, only 40 percent of the housing units meet minimum
requirements for health and sanitation under the Zambia Public Health Act No. 19 of 2020.
Considering all necessary demographic and social factors, current housing stock, housing
production rate and quality characteristics, Zambia’s housing deficit is estimated at 1.5 million
26
and is expected to rise to 3.3 million housing units by 2030. This deficit requires the allocation of
at least 194,600 hectares of land for human settlement development by 2030. Zambia’s
inadequate capacity to respond to population growth coupled with poor integrated planning
has contributed to the rising housing deficit and the growth of informal settlements.
81. Generally, housing impacts forest cover, therefore during the period under review, the
forest cover reduced from 62.05 percent to 60.07 per cent in Zambia between 2010 and 2015
attributable to human induced land cover changes such as the expansion of urban housing,
other infrastructure expansion and irrigated agriculture. The area covered by built areas
increased from 208, 346 hectares to 572, 346 hectares, a total addition of over 364,000 hectares
over the period. This expansion was mainly in the form of encroaching into forest land. Though
there was increased built up area in all Provinces, Lusaka had the highest levels at the expense
of cropland. This stemmed from increased demand for land for housing from an ever-
increasing population and establishment of industries. (Sources: WAVES Land Technical
Account 2010-2015).
82. Housing challenges are most pronounced among low-income groups who constitute
nearly 80 percent of the population. The housing deficits are mainly attributed to challenges
in accessing land especially for marginalised groups, high cost of building materials, rapid
population growth and high rural-urban migration. Table 10 shows key challenges and
opportunities of Human Settlements and Housing
Table 10: Key Challenges and Opportunities of Human Settlements and Housing
Increase in informal i. Inadequate basic
settlements infrastructure
ii. Poor accessibility and,
overcrowding.
For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for • Expansion of housing

finance markets and
provision of affordable
iii. Increase in health risks financing.
circulation and flooding
iv. Poor solid waste • Commercialisation and

management and utilization of affordable
inadequate water and local building materials.
sanitation facilities and
services
• Greening of settlements
as upgrading takes
v. Encroachment of water place.
recharge and discharge
areas, forests and other
protected areas
Low population density i. Increase in per capita • Settlement regrouping

in rural areas cost of development for rural areas with low
programmes and projects population density.
ii. Low access to social and
economic services
High housing deficits i. Rising rental costs
27
ii. Increase in sub-standard
housing
3.3.4 The Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
83. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused serious health, social and
economic challenges. The impacts of the pandemic on the country’s health, education, social
and economic sectors including agriculture, mining, wholesale and retail trade, and tourism,
among others have led to a reduction in economic activity.
84. Since the advent of the pandemic in March 2020, the impacts included loss of
employment, incomes and in some cases, loss of businesses. There was also a reduction in the
collection of Government revenues, coupled with unforeseen expenditure in order to respond
to the pandemic. There was also an increase in prices of goods on the domestic market on
account of disruption of supply chains.
85. In the health sector, the response to the pandemic caused disruptions in health service
delivery due to redeployment of health personnel. A WHO Pulse Survey conducted in 135
countries including Zambia revealed that about 10 percent of the health services were
disrupted at the level of 50 percent and more while 45 percent of essential services were
affected by between 5 to 25 percent.5
86. Another effect was the derailment in academic calendars at all levels of the education
system. In the year 2020 a total of 2, 697,961 learners aged 10-24 had to adapt to use of
learning models such as television, radio and the internet which were not available in some
areas. By the fourth quarter of 2020 only 53 percent of the grade 7, 9 and 12 reported being

ready for the examination.6
87. The effects of the pandemic combined with unsustainable debt, declining copper
prices, large fiscal deficit, and energy shortages led to a 2.8 percent contraction in GDP in
circulation
2020, the first such contraction since 1998. Sectors such as Agriculture generated 2.7 percent
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019, representing a sharp decline in the last two
decades (11.6 percent in 2009) attributed to the COVID 19, rainfall variability and limited
mechanisation among others7.
88. Table 11 shows key challenges and opportunities of COVID-19.
Table 11: Key Challenges and Opportunities that COVID-19 Presents

COVID-19 pandemic i. Worsened disease burden • Strengthening of public
and increased mortality health security,
and morbidity levels. including improving
ii. Increased costs for surveillance of notifiable
general health care and diseases.
disruption of normal
5 SEIA
6 ZamStats
7 7 Zambia Agriculture Status Report, Dec 2020, Brian P. Mulenga, Mulako Kabisa,
Antony Chapoto and Theresa Muyobela https://www.iapri.org.zm/wp-
content/uploads/2020/12/2020_asr.pdf
28
provision of health
services.
iii. Reduced contact hours • Increased adoption
and prolonged closure of and utilization of
schools leading to Information
disruption of education Communication
calendar Technology (ICT) modes
iv. Reduction in international in service delivery and
tourist arrivals, thus production.
leading to loss of revenue
and jobs.
v. Delayed completion of
some key development
• Increased local supplier
projects due to travel
participation in value
restrictions, closure of
chains and import
international airports and
substitution.
diversion of resources to
the Covid-19 fight.
vi. Job losses leading to an
increase in
unemployment and non- • Strengthening of social
performing loans protection systems.
vii. Disruption of social
activities
viii. Disruption of the supply
chains • Promotion of domestic
tourism.

3.3.5 Climate Change and Variability
89.
circulation
Zambia continues to be adversely impacted by climate events such droughts, flash
and seasonal floods and extreme temperatures which threaten the socioeconomic
development agenda of the country. Since 1960, mean annual precipitation countrywide has
been decreasing by 1.9 mm, most notably in the summer months, and the growing season for
crops has been shortening. On the other hand, Zambia’s average annual temperature has
increased by 1.3C, an average rate of 0.29C per decade. Over the same period, more than
9 million Zambians have been affected by 7 major droughts and 20 major floods.
90. These extreme weather events have exacerbated the poverty of over 60 percent of
the population, particularly in rural areas that are dependent of rain-fed agriculture for their
livelihoods. The rural poor have experienced crop failures and death of their livestock, which
has caused them to turn to other natural resources like forests for survival. The health sector is
also affected as there is an increased disease burden, straining on the healthcare system. For
instance, with flooding, the incidence of waterborne diseases such as cholera and dysentery
increase. Another effect of climate events is damage to public infrastructure, such as roads
and bridges, which get washed away due to more frequent and severe floods.
91. Climate events have had substantial effects on economic performance, ultimately
impacting negatively on real GDP growth. It is estimated that the impact of climate change
29
will cost Zambia approximately 0.4 percent of annual economic growth. 8Table 12 shows key
challenges and opportunities of climate change.
Table 12: Key Challenges and Opportunities of Climate Change and Variability
Climate Change and i. Reduced electricity • Increased adoption
Variability generation from hydro and utilization of
resources thereby affecting renewable and
production and productivity alternative energy
in key sectors of the sources and off-grid
economy such as solutions.
agriculture, mining,
manufacturing, and services.
• Increase utilisation of
climate-smart
ii. Food insecurity owing to agriculture
reduced agricultural technologies and
production and productivity practices.
due to floods or droughts.
• Adoption of
iii. Increasing incidences of sustainable and
internal migration due to the environmentally
threat that climate variability friendly livelihood
has on livelihood activities. activities.

iv. Increased incidences of • Acceleration of
circulation diseases and health

conditions linked to adverse
climatic conditions
reforestation and
afforestation activities.
• Construction of
v. Reduced economic activity climate resilient
and reallocation of infrastructure
resources due to damage of
infrastructure
8 Zambia Country Climate Risk Assessment Report,2018
30
PART II: MACROECONOMIC
POLICY FRAMEWORK

circulation
31
4 MACROECONOMIC POLICY
OBJECTIVES
4.1. Overview
92. The 8NDP is being formulated at a time when the country is facing severe challenges.
Growth contracted by 2.8 percent in 2020, mostly due to the effect of the COVID-19
Pandemic. There was some recovery in 2021, with growth projected at 3.3 percent, a level that
is just slightly above the population growth rate of 2.8 percent. Inflation has accelerated
beyond the 6-8 percent target range, while the trend has been a fall in the exchange rate.
The fiscal deficit has widened while debt is at unsustainable levels. Gross International Reserves
had declined to the lowest level in more than a decade, until the country received Special
Drawing Rights equivalent to US $1.33 billion in 2021 which boosted reserves to about 4.5
months of import cover.
4.2. MACROECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES
93. The goal of Government’s economic policies over the Plan period is to restore
macroeconomic stability and growth, attain fiscal and debt sustainability, and to improve
livelihoods of the Zambian people, especially the vulnerable. Attaining this will require strong
policy action and the implementation of structural reforms in the key areas of growth, fiscal,
monetary and external sectors.
94. Pursuant to the above, the macroeconomic objectives for the 8NDP period are to:

(a) Achieve an annual average real GDP growth rate of 3.9 percent;
(b) Reduce the fiscal deficit from 11.6 percent of GDP in 2021 to 6.7 percent of GDP in
circulation
2022, and 6.4 percent of GDP by 2026;
(c) Maintain domestic revenues at an average of above 21 percent of GDP;
(d) Contain domestic borrowing to less than 5.2 percent of GDP;
(e) Significantly reduce expenditure and VAT arrears;
(f) Reduce inflation to within the target range of 6-8 percent by 2024;
(g) Maintain international reserves at above 3 months of import cover; and
(h) Reduce the pace of debt accumulation and ensure sustainability.
32
Table 13: Key Macroeconomic Indicators over the Plan Period
Baseline
Key Performance Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source of Statistics
(2020)
Real GDP Growth Rate (%) -2.8 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.2 4.5 Zamstats/MOFNP -EMD
GDP at constant prices (ZMW
137,755.00 147,197.00 152,506.50 158,467.20 165,188.00 172,686.60 Zamstats/MOFNP-EMD
millions)
CPI inflation (end period, %) 19.2 Zamstats/ BOZ
CPI inflation (annual average
15.7 TBD 06-08 06-08 06-08 06-08 Zamstats/BOZ
%)
Domestic borrowing (% of
37 5.9 4.7 MOFNP-IDM
GDP)
Domestic revenue (% of
19 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.9 MOFNP-BO
GDP)
Overall fiscal deficit (% of
14.4 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.9 3.6 MOFNP-BO
GDP)
Gross International Reserves
2.4 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 BOZ
(Months of Import Cover)
Share of non - mining as % of
88.9 89.8 89.8 89.8 89.9 89.9 Zamstats/MOFNP-EMD
GDP*
Share of agriculture as % of
GDP * For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for
7.5 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.3 Zamstats/MOFNP-EMD
Manufacturing as share of
8.5 8.2 8.1 8 7.9 7.8 MOFNP-EMD
GDP*
Current account balance,
including grants (US$ million)
circulation
2,234.8 1,199.7 1,0135.5 1,037.5 1,109.0 BOZ/ZAMSTAT
Trade Balance (US$ million) 3,216.0 3,192.8 2,758.9 3,012.1 3,180.2 BOZ/ZAMSTAT
Share of non-traditional
23.4 21.5 22.6 25.1 28.7 BOZ/ZAMSTAT
earnings as % total exports
Financially included adults (%
69.5 71.5 73.5 75.5 77.5 79.5 BOZ/MOF
of total population)
Financially included adults ‒
56.9 58.26 59.62 60.98 62.34 63.7 BOZ/MOF
rural (% of total population)
Financially included adults –
83.3 85.9 88.5 91.1 93.7 96.3 BOZ/MOF
urban (% of total population)
Ratio of access to financial
services using mobile services 58.5 67.4 76.3 85.2 88 89 BOZ/MOF
(% of total population)
33
4.3. MACROECONOMIC POLICIES FOR THE 8NDP
4.3.1. Achieving Higher and more Inclusive Growth 9
95. The goal of the Government’s economic policies is to raise living standards and reduce
poverty and inequality by creating conditions for strong and inclusive growth based on a
devolved system of governance. The strategy rests on economic transformation and job
creation through implementation of interventions to enhance production and productivity in
the agriculture, tourism, mining, manufacturing, energy and transport sectors. Improving the
investment climate will also be crucial in promoting productivity in these sectors. Successful
implementation of the growth strategies and structural reforms is projected to raise real GDP
growth from 3.3 percent in 2021, to 4.4 percent in 2026.
4.3.2. Fiscal Policies and Reforms
96. To achieve fiscal sustainability, a combination of domestic resource mobilisation,

expenditure rationalisation as well as reducing the pace of debt accumulation will be
implemented to reduce the fiscal deficit on cash basis to 6.4 percent of GDP by the end of
the Plan period in 2026, from the current double-digit figures. Domestic revenues are projected
to remain above 20 percent of GDP at 22.5 percent of GDP in 2026 from 23.1 percent of GDP
in 2021. On the tax policy side, key interventions will include an upward adjustment of excise
duties on alcohol and cigarettes as well as expanding the scope on goods subject to excise
duty and streamlining the tax incentives structure. VAT and excise duty on petroleum products
that had been suspended in 2021 will also be reinstated in 2022. On tax administration, the
measures will include rolling out of electronic fiscal devices to enhance VAT compliance,
introduction of digital stamps on excisable products to improve excise duty collection and
completion of implementing the Telecommunications Traffic Monitoring System. The Zambia

Revenue Authority will also enhance its collaboration with local authorities to expand the tax
base and revenue collection. Further, a data matching project which will enhance
compliance by matching customs and inland-revenue declarations as well as interfacing with
national data registers on the Government service platform will be undertaken.
97. circulation
On the expenditure side, total expenditure (including amortization) is projected to
reduce to 28.9 percent of GDP in 2026 from 33.5 percent of GDP in 2021. This is largely on
account of reduced expenses on traditional pressure points such s the Farmer Input Support
Programme and capital expenditure. In the earlier years of the Plan 2022-2024, total
expenditure will average around 30 percent of GDP due to a rise in the public wage bill as
Government undertakes recruitment of mainly frontline personnel in the health and education
sectors. Recruitment will also be done for extension officers in the livestock sub-sector. Further,
significant resources during the Plan period have also been allocated for the Constituency
Development Fund (CDF), so as to bring resources closer to the people.
4.3.3. Debt Management Strategy
98. The 8NDP is being formulated at a time when the country faces an unsustainable debt
position, using both solvency and liquidity thresholds. To pave the way for debt restructuring
engagement with its creditors, and as a route towards attaining macroeconomic stability,
Government engaged the IMF and reached a Staff-Level Agreement with the Fund in
December 2021. A formal programme is expected to be reached within 2022, under the
Extended Credit Facility, and will be a key anchor for the 8NDP reform agenda.
99. To return to debt sustainability over the medium term, Government will utilize the
existing international framework, notably the G20 Common Framework on debt treatment,
9 Specific programmes and strategies to attain the growth objectives are contained under Pillar 1.
34
and will take advantage of any new frameworks that may emerge over the Plan period. This
is in addition to implementation of other measures which include non-contraction of non-
concessional debt and cancellation, postponement and scaling back of non-priority loan
financed projects, in line with the Government’s capital expenditure programme.
100. To ensure that the country does not return to unsustainable debt levels, and to
enhance transparency and debt management once agreement with creditors has been
reached, Government will develop a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy covering the
period 2023-2025. For external debt, the focus will be on the use of concessional financial
sources and other low-cost sources, mainly targeted for use on projects with high socio-
economic returns. For domestic debt, Government will ensure that the issuance of
Government securities will be primarily from the market. In addition, the issuance programme
will focus on longer dated instruments taking into account market conditions and costs, in
order to reduce refinancing risk. The target is to attain a debt stock ratio of Treasury Bills to
Government Bonds of 40 percent to 60 percent over the Plan period. In raising funds
domestically, Government will also avoid the use of instruments that are of foreign currency
denomination to minimize its foreign exchange exposure. An additional measure to enhance
transparency in debt management, including providing for Parliamentary oversight in loan
contraction will be the revision of the Loans and Guarantees (Authorisation) Act during the
Plan period.
4.3.4. Domestic Arrears and Dismantling Strategy
101. To dismantle the stock of domestic arrears, Government has a strategy that will be
implemented over the Plan period for clearance of the existing stock of domestic arrears. The
arrears include Personal Emoluments, bills for consumption of public utilities (telephone, water
and electricity), VAT refunds, FISP, maize purchases under FRA, unpaid Pension benefits,
outstanding bills on Road Construction Programme under the Road Development Agency

(RDA), Other Recurrent Departmental Charges (RDC’s), Provisions (Rations), Awards and
Compensation and Capital Expenditure on other civil works/contracts other than Road
Projects. The Dismantling of Domestic Arrears Strategy will address these debt categories. For
road contractors, the general principle on arrears clearance is covered under the strategy,
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while a more detailed strategy will be implemented by the National Road Fund Agency. Fuel
arrears and Electricity (Debt to IPPs and Power Imports) arrears which are foreign currency
denominated will also be addressed and liquidated through the provisions in the Strategy.
102. The key features of the strategy include increased budget provision, debt and/or
cheque swaps, as well as debt refinancing and restructuring. The strategy aims at prioritising
dismantling of arrears to support medium-term stabilisation, debt sustainability, and sustained
economic growth. The major components of the strategy are dismantling of arrears and
halting or slowing down the pace of accumulation of new arrears. Due to the amounts
involved, clearance of domestic arrears will be done in the medium to long-term through a
multi-year approach.
103. To halt the accumulation of new arrears, a Commitment Control Module will be
developed in the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) that will link
procurement commitments to the approved budget. To support the use of IFMIS, budget
releases will be separated from cash releases, with budget releases done on a quarterly basis
and based on procurement and cash plans.
4.3.5. Monetary and Financial Sector Polices
104. During the 8NDP period, the Government will continue to pursue monetary and
financial sector policies aimed at maintaining price and financial system stability which are
critical to promoting sustainable growth. The Bank of Zambia will continue to rely on the
forward-looking monetary policy framework anchored on the Policy Rate as a key signal for
the monetary policy stance. Decisions on the policy rate will continue to be guided by inflation
35
forecasts, outcomes, and identified risks that include those associated with financial stability
and economic growth.
105. Over the Plan period, the primary objective of the exchange rate policy will be to
maintain a flexible system whilst mitigating excessive volatility. This is on the recognition that
excess volatility in the exchange rate can have adverse effects on output, inflation and the
external competitiveness of the country, which can undermine the achievement of the Bank’s
inflation objective and the overall growth objective of the country.
106. To ensure financial system stability, given the challenging macroeconomic

environment, the Bank of Zambia will implement a Problem Bank Framework. The key goals of
the framework include providing clear and consistent criteria for designating an institution as
a problem institution; clearly defining the actions, both pre-emptive and after a problem has
crystalized, to be taken in dealing with weak institutions; and minimizing the risk of economic
and financial contagion and their potential fiscal risks.
107. To enhance monetary policy credibility, Government will operationalize a new Bank of
Zambia Act during the Plan period. The new Act will ensure the operational independence of
the Bank of Zambia, in line the Constitutional (Amendment) Act No.2 of 2016 and the adoption
of the SADC Central Bank Model Law by the Council of Ministers of Finance in 2009.
4.3.6. External Sector Policies
108. During the 8NDP period, Government will continue to pursue an open trade regime,
anchored on a competitive and stable exchange rate as well as active participation in
regional and global trade arrangements. This is with a view to enhancing external sector
performance and ensuring current account sustainability. In this regard, the focus of the 8NDP
will be on expanding export earnings from various sectors especially, mining, agriculture,

manufacturing and tourism including the easing of restrictions on exports of agricultural
commodities. Further, Government will take measures aimed at facilitating and formalising
trade at key border posts such as Kasumbalesa with the aim of boosting earnings from non-
traditional exports. These measures will help sustain a positive trade balance and contribute to
109.
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the stability of the Kwacha.
To maintain reserves at above 3 months of import cover, the Government will continue
with the policy of requiring all mining companies to pay their tax obligations in US dollars
directly to the Bank of Zambia. In addition, the Bank of Zambia will continue to add gold bullion
to foreign reserves through the purchase of locally mined gold.
4.4. KEY REFORMS TO SUPPORT MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND GROWTH
110. Over the Plan period, Government will implement reforms to ensure attainment of the
macroeconomic objectives of the Plan. The reforms are aimed at reducing fiscal risks, and to
propel the country to a higher growth trajectory.
a) Strengthening Public Financial Management: This will be a central pillar to restoring

budget credibility, improving the efficiency of public expenditures, and supporting
private sector led growth. The goals of the PFM are enhancing domestic resource
mobilization; increasing the efficiency of public expenditure; halting the accumulation
of arrears; and improving fiscal transparency. Government will also ensure adherence
to and enforce the penalty regime in the Public Finance Management Act and the
Public Procurement Act.
b) Fiscal risks: In light of slowing growth, tighter fiscal conditions, and growing debt
burden, Government will closely monitor fiscal risks, Government will develop a risk
monitoring framework with the aim of anticipating expenditure pressures and revenue
shocks. This will be done through a fiscal risk monitoring and management framework
36
that will be used to monitor key risk elements such Local Authorities, PPPs, SOEs and
climate/natural disasters.
c) Private Public Partnership: To leverage the Public Private Partnership (PPP) financing
mode to finance developmental projects, the legal framework will be repealed and
replaced, to among others, strengthen the framework for managing fiscal risks related
to PPPs; strengthen the PPP approval process in order to effectively assess fiscal
commitments and potential contingent liabilities; improve management of unsolicited
proposals and SOE implemented PPPs. The objective of reviewing the law is to support
the delivery of cost effective, value for money, and sustainable infrastructure projects
and service delivery as a means to stimulate economic recovery.
d) FISP reforms; To make the Farmer Input Support Programme more cost effective, better
targeted and equitable across beneficiaries, Government will implement a new
comprehensive agriculture support programme beginning in the 2022/2023 farming
season. The scope of the programme will be expanded over and above the provision
of subsidised inputs to farmers through the electronic agro-input system to include
extension service support, access to finance, support to value addition, storage and
logistics.
e) State Owned Enterprises: To ensure continued strengthening of fiscal controls and
governance in State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), Government will ensure that SOEs
comply with the provisions of the Public Finance Management Act No. 1 of 2018. The
Act gives the Treasury mandate to develop the code of governance guidelines and a
supervisory and performance monitoring framework for SOEs. Additionally, it requires
SOEs to submit to the Treasury annual financial statements for analysis of performance.
Where an SOE’s performance is poor, the Act empowers the Treasury to take
appropriate action. To further augment governance in SOEs, Government will over the
Plan period develop an SOE Policy.

f) IMF Programme: Government and the IMF reached a staff-level Agreement in
December, 2021. The Staff Level Agreement has enabled the country to begin
negotiations with creditors on debt restructuring. Further, upon agreement with the
creditors, it opens the door, subject to Board approval for the country to secure a
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formal programme with the International Monetary Fund under the Extended Credit
Facility. Having a programme with the IMF will result in improved investor confidence
and affordable international financing. This will lead to economic stability thereby
promoting higher and more inclusive growth. It will also unlock financing from
Cooperating Partners that in the recent past have withheld financing due to concerns
on debt sustainability and governance issues. It will also enable the country access
concessional financing for Budget support from multilateral institutions.
g) Strengthening Fiscal Decentralisation: To address inter-governmental jurisdictional fiscal
disparities and unstable macroeconomic environment, the design of fiscal
decentralisation architecture will focus on addressing local fiscal discipline, domestic
revenue mobilisation, revenue sharing, debt sustainability, sub-national borrowing and
provision of inter-governmental transfers that are sufficiently large and flexible to
influence aggregate demand and service provision at local level.
37
PART III: 8NDP: TOWARDS THE
VISION 2030

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38
5 TOWARDS VISION 2030
5.1. OVERVIEW OF THE VISION 2030
111. Zambia aspires to become “A Prosperous Middle-Income Nation by 2030”. By 2030,
Zambians want to live in a strong, dynamic, competitive and self-sustaining middle-income
industrial nation resilient to external shocks while providing opportunities for improving the well-
being of all. The Vision coincides with the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development, which
aims to end poverty, fight inequality and injustice and tackle climate change through the
pursuance of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By this time the country should have
made substantial progress towards the attainment of the global goals. The 8NDP, therefore,
provides an avenue to catalysing the nation’s response to addressing the developmental
challenges over the 2022-2026 period in a quest to attain the Vision 2030, SDGs and other
international commitments.
112. By the end of this decade, the economy will be diversified with a balanced and
cohesive industrial sector having strong linkages in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.
The economy will also be technologically proficient by optimising human and natural
resources. The people will have strong entrepreneurial capabilities, be self-reliant, outward-
looking and enterprising, and take advantage of the potential and available opportunities.
Further, the country will be economically, socially and politically integrated within the sub-
region, Africa and the rest of the world.
113. The country will have a shared destiny, be united in diversity, equitably integrated and
democratic in governance and patriotic. Additionally, the nation should have devolved
political systems and structures while retaining the roots and positive aspects of its own social,
cultural and moral values.

5.2. MOVING TOWARDS THE VISION 2030: WHAT IT WILL TAKE
114. Progress was made towards the attainment of the socio-economic development
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objectives of the Vision 2030 during the implementation of the FNDP, SNDP/R-SNDP and 7NDP.
However, the progress achieved so far has not been sufficient to enable the country to realise
the Vision. Therefore, there is a need to implement wide-ranging reforms and interventions to
build on the achievements of the previous NDPs and address the constraints impeding
development. To this end, the following strategic development areas will be pursued in the
8NDP:
a) Economic transformation and Job Creation: Economic transformation will be anchored

on industrialization with a focus on value addition in agriculture, mining and
manufacturing with strong local forward and backward linkages. Priority will also be
given to job-rich sectors such as tourism and construction. Focus will also be placed on
the development of micro, small and medium-scale (MSMEs) enterprises across all
sectors as they have high income and job creation potential. The economic
transformation agenda will be led by the private sector while Government will provide
an enabling and supportive environment through the delivery of requisite policies,
regulations and infrastructure. These interventions will result in increased productivity
and the creation of employment opportunities, especially for the youth and women.
Further, the economic transformation agenda will ultimately build the economy’s
resilience to both external and domestic shocks.
b) Human Development: Human development entails having a well-educated, highly

skilled and healthy labour force to propel Zambia to a thriving and industrialised
economy as espoused in the Vision 2030. Thus, in the 8NDP, interventions will focus on
increasing access to and improving the quality of education, health and water and
39
sanitation as well as enhancing social protection. This will contribute to the reduction
in poverty and inequality.
c) Environmental Sustainability: In pursuit of the economic transformation agenda, it is

imperative that development pathways are sustainable. This entails sustainable
utilisation of natural resources which are the basis for wealth creation, as well as
building resilience to the adverse effects of climate change. Thus, the 8NDP prioritises
measures aimed at safeguarding the environment and natural resources as well as
enhancing climate change mitigation and adaptation.
d) Good Governance Environment: Good governance entails creating a conducive

environment characterised by participation, rule of law, transparency, accountability,
consensus, responsiveness, equity and inclusiveness, effectiveness and efficiency. In
this regard, the 8NDP will focus on improving policy and governance environment as
well as promoting adherence to the rule of law and constitutionalism.
5.3. LINK BETWEEN THE 8NDP AND THE VISION 2030
115. The strategic development areas of the 8NDP outlined above are linked to the Pillars
as outlined in the Vision 2030, as shown in Figure 17. The strategic development area of
Economic Transformation and Job Creation is linked to the Pilar on a nation with diversified
and sustainable growth in the Vision, while the strategic development area of Human
development is linked to the Pillars to a nation without hunger and poverty and a nation with
improved human capital. The Pillar on Good Governance environment is linked to a nation
with improved governance in the Vision. Environment sustainability strategic development is a
cross-cutting in nature and is closing linked to the first three pillars in the Plan.
Figure 16: Situating the 8NDP in the vision 2030

PART IV: UNVEILING THE REFORMS IN THE PLAN
circulation VISION 2030
Vision
2030
A Nation with Diversified and A Nation without Hunger and A Nation with Improved A Nation with Improved Pillars
Sustainable Growth Poverty Human Capital Governance
Human and Social Environmental Good Governance 8NDP

Economic Transformation Environment
and Job Creation Development Sustainability Pillars
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PART IV: THE STRATEGIC
DEVELOPMENT AREAS OF THE 8NDP

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41
7. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AREA
1: ECONOMIC
TRANSFORMATION AND JOB
CREATION
7.1. OVERVIEW
116. The economy is characterised by low diversification. The top 3 sector
concentration ratio 10as a percentage of GDP for the period 2017 to 2020, shows that
wholesale and retail trade, mining and quarrying as well as construction dominated
and accounted for almost 50 percent of GDP. The average contribution of the
agriculture, manufacturing and tourism sectors was 11.8 percent to GDP over the
same period.
117. It is, therefore, the aspiration of the country to attain economic transformation.
Economic transformation is marked by advancements in industrialisation and
economic diversification. It entails shifting labour and other resources from low to
higher productive activities between and within sectors over a period of time.
Ultimately this will increase employment opportunities for all Zambians. In the 8NDP,
Government seeks to create a diversified and resilient economy for sustained growth
driven by agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism.

7.2. CURRENT SITUATION
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118. Agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism are key drivers upon which the
country’s economic growth agenda is anchored. These sectors account for a
significant proportion of employed persons.
119. The agriculture sector provides livelihood to more than 70 percent of Zambia’s
population. In terms of performance, in the ten-year period between 2011 and 2020,
agricultural growth averaged 0.4 percent while its share of GDP was 5.8 percent.
Agricultural sector growth has been below the national population growth rate of 2.8
percent, yet it is the mainstay of a larger proportion of the population. Implicitly, the
incomes of households that are dependent on this sector have been declining. The
sector is characterised by low productivity, limited mechanisation and is largely rainfall
dependent.
120. Growth in the mining sector averaged 2.5 percent and its share of GDP was
14.8 percent between 2011 and 2020. The sector is characterised by low
diversification, limited exploration and exploitation, low participation and productivity
of small-scale miners and low-value addition to mineral endowments with high levels
of informality particularly in non-copper mining activities. Additionally, export
diversification remains low, with traditional exports largely dependent on copper
which on average accounts for more than 70 percent of total exports. This situation
10The top 3 sector concentration Ratio as percentage of GDP measures the sum of the shares of the top 3 sectors in GDP
42
demonstrates the strong need to increase investments especially for non-traditional
minerals as a means of transforming the economy and generating more jobs.
121. Over the period 2011 to 2020, the manufacturing sector recorded an average
growth rate of 4.8 percent albeit with fluctuations and its share of GDP averaged 7.2
percent. Strong performance of the manufacturing sector is an important indicator of
both industrialisation and economic diversification. This is because of its strong linkages
with the primary sectors such as agriculture and mining which are expected to
stimulate growth. However, the sector is characterised by low-value manufactured
products and rudimentary value and supply chains that are vulnerable to shocks. In
the last decade, the sector has been dominated by the food and beverage sub-
sector which accounted for 32.5 percent, followed by the base metals at 29.4
percent, giving a case for the need to transform the sector to manufacture high-value
products. Thus, increased investment in manufacturing will promote strong backward
and forward linkages with other sectors which is a key catalyst of job creation.
122. The tourism sector grew by an average of 3.1 percent and its share of GDP was
1.5 percent over the period 2011 to 2020. Tourism has begun to take prominence in
the economy as one of the significant sources of employment and accounting for
15.7 percent of employment in 2019. However, the sector was one of the hardest hit
by COVID-19 as a result of travel restrictions resulting in a 26 percent contraction in the
growth rate in 2020. There is therefore need to revive the sector by encouraging
domestic tourism as well as addressing the challenges of low product diversification,
low investment, poor infrastructure and the high cost of doing business.

7.1. CONSTRAINTS
123. Economic transformation requires a holistic approach to addressing the multi-
faceted constraints that face key sectors of the economy. The major constraints to
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economic transformation and job creation continue to be low diversification and
industrialisation, low citizen participation and low private sector competitiveness.
124. Diversification and industrialisation are constrained by inadequate

infrastructure in economic sectors such as transportation, energy, agriculture and ICT,
especially in rural areas. This contributes to the high cost of doing business and
ultimately affects productivity and the competitiveness of the economy. In addition,
inadequate access to productive resources, especially low-cost financing, adversely
impacts efforts to industrialise and diversify the economy at the desired rate. Further,
limited research and development, coupled with low use of applied research and
innovation have compounded the low rate of industrialisation and diversification.
125. Effective citizens’ participation in economic activities is hampered by the low

savings rate, poor credit culture, high cost of borrowing that limits access to finance,
lack of skilled labour and inadequate capacities in the development of bankable
proposals. Other challenges include low entrepreneurial and vocational skills as well
as inadequate apprenticeship programmes for the youth. Despite Government’s
efforts to address these constraints, poor implementation of empowerment
programmes characterised by inadequate business support services and poor loan
recovery, has hindered progress. This is exacerbated by high levels of informality
limiting access to auxiliary support services.
43
126. Policy inconsistency continues to be a constraint to private sector
competitiveness. This has impacted long-term investment decisions by the private
sector, especially in the mining and agricultural sectors, specifically in relation to
taxation and export trade policies. Other constraints include high set-up costs, the
multiplicity of regulatory fees and licenses, prolonged processes for accessing licenses
and permits, land titling, electricity connection and business permits.
127. Weak market information systems also limit the ability of the private sector to
fully take advantage of domestic and international markets. Inadequate uptake and
failure to meet standardisation, quality assurance and sanitary and phytosanitary
requirements, particularly in international markets, coupled with inefficiencies at key
border posts, which result in delays in clearing goods, all negatively impact the
competitiveness on the market.
128. To overcome these constraints, the 8NDP will implement strategies and
programmes aimed at achieving a diversified and industrialised economy, enhancing
citizenry participation and promoting private sector competitiveness.
7.1. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: AN INDUSTRIALISED AND DIVERSIFIED

ECONOMY
129. Creation of a diversified and industrialised economy is a key development
outcome of the 8NDP. To this end, Government will implement a number of strategies.
These will include increasing agriculture production and productivity, promoting
mining of traditional and non-traditional minerals, promoting value addition and
manufacturing, promoting rural industrialisation as well as tourism diversification.
130. Other strategies will include enhancing generation, transmission and
distribution of electricity, diversifying to renewable and alternative energy, enhancing
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the management of petroleum products, improving transport and logistics, upscaling
the provision of industry-relevant skills, investing in applied research and development,
enhancing digital capacity and strengthening management and productive use of
water resources.
7.1.1. Strategy 1: Increasing agricultural production and productivity
131. Government will aim to increase production and productivity in the agriculture
sector. To this end, Government will create an enabling environment for private
sector growth in the agriculture sector by providing a stable trade policy with
emphasis on easing of restrictions on exports of agricultural commodities and
facilitating access to finance. Additionally, a comprehensive agriculture support
programme will be implemented beginning from the 2022/2023 farming season. The
programme will go beyond the provision of inputs through the electronic agro-input
system to include extension service support, support to value addition, storage and
logistics. Further, the programme will provide for better targeting and equity across
beneficiaries. Tree crop production and irrigation development will also be promoted.
132. To increase hectarage under production and enhance productivity,

agricultural mechanisation will be promoted. Government will also promote farm
block development with special focus on diversification of crops and the expansion
44
of livestock and fisheries sub-sectors. Resettlement schemes will also be developed as
centres for agriculture production.
133. Interventions in fisheries will aim at promoting investments for increased

fingerling production, establishing, and operationalising of fish breeding and freezing
centres as measures to bridge the domestic fish deficit and expand into the regional
market. Livestock production will be enhanced through established community-
managed livestock service centres, Provincial livestock insemination centres and
veterinary laboratories. The Government will also devolve veterinary services to
improve efficiency in the livestock sub-sector.
134. These interventions will result in an agricultural growth rate of at least 10 percent
per annum over the Plan period. Over the same period, agricultural exports are
expected to increase to above US$ 2 billion by 2026 from US$756.2 million in 2021.
135. To increase agriculture production and productivity, the following programmes

will be implemented:
1. Agriculture, fisheries and livestock infrastructure development

2. Agricultural mechanisation
3. Comprehensive Farmer Input Support
4. Agroforestry and tree crops development
5. Agribusiness development
6. Irrigation development
7. Fisheries and aquaculture development
8. Research and Development
9. Livestock development
10. Extension Services
11. Early warning and surveillance systems
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12. Farm block development
7.1.2. Strategy 2: Promote traditional and non-traditional minerals
136. Promotion of traditional and non-traditional minerals will be achieved through

the opening of new mines and increased production in existing ones. For copper, the
aim is to increase production to 3 million metric tonnes by 2032. Diversification to other
minerals such as gold, gemstones and manganese will also be promoted.
137. Local beneficiation and value addition to minerals for the country to tap into
regional and global markets and value chains will be encouraged. This will be done
through a national supplier development policy that will be developed to promote
local value addition and participation of local players in the mining supply chain. Key
to this will be the promotion of both domestic and foreign direct investment in the
production of end products such as electric motor vehicle components.
138. Government will also encourage the formation of cooperatives among

artisanal and small-scale miners as well as facilitate access to support services to
enhance their productivity, including linkages to value chains. This will open up
opportunities for the youths, men and women at community level to participate in
mining value chains in a more formalised and structured arrangement.
45
139. With these interventions are expected that by 2026, the copper output will
increase to 1.5 million metric tonnes from 868,000 metric tonnes in 2020. Over the same
period, the value of mineral exports (excluding copper) are expected to increase to
more than US$ 1billion from US$XXX in 2021.
140. To promote traditional and non-traditional minerals, the following programmes

will be implemented
(a) Mineral and petroleum exploration and exploitation

(b) Mineral Tax and Mining Reforms
(c) Mineral beneficiation and value addition
(d) Artisanal and small-scale mining development
7.1.3. Strategy 3: Promote value addition and manufacturing
141. To successfully diversify and industrialise, Government will implement

interventions aimed at accelerating growth in the manufacturing sector. Among
them will be to ensure increased local content and investment for value addition to
products from the agriculture, forestry and mining sectors as well as facilitate trade.
The value chains that will be prioritised include processed foods, engineering, wood
and wood products, textiles, leather and leather products, metallic and non-metallic
mineral beneficiation and value addition, and pharmaceuticals. Government will also
promote the development and operationalisation of Multi-Facility Economic Zones
and industrial parks including through the provision of appropriate incentives.
142. As a result of these interventions, the target is to attain an average growth rate
of 2.6 percent (average over 2011 to 2020 growth was 4.8%) for the manufacturing
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sector. over the Plan period. The share of manufactured goods in total Non-Traditional
Exports will increase to XXX from 44 percent over the same period.
143. To promote value addition and manufacturing, the following programmes will
be implemented:
a) Value Chain Development

b) Market Linkages
c) Investment promotion
d) Multi-Facility Economic Zones and Industrial Parks
e) Industry relevant skills promotion
7.1.4. Strategy 4: Promote tourism growth
144. Government will revamp the tourism sector and support its recovery from the
COVID-19 pandemic, as it presents opportunities for job creation for local
communities through activities such as traditional ceremonies, basketry, local cuisine
promotion, curio-making, music and dance among others. The focus will be on the
development of the Northern and Southern circuits, particularly, around the Kasaba
Bay and Liuwa National Park. This will be done through the development of
infrastructure coupled, with a supportive regulatory and licencing framework to
46
attract private investment. Further, Government will promote the hosting of meetings,
international conferences and events (MICE) leveraging on recent infrastructure
developments such as the upgraded airports including the Kenneth Kaunda and
Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe International Airports as well as increased hotels and
conferencing facilities.
145. Owing to these interventions, it is expected that the tourism sector will register
an average annual growth rate of at least 4.5 percent from an annual average of 3.1
percent over the period 2011 to 2020. The number of international tourist arrivals per
year will increase to XXXX million in 2026 from 501,606 in 2020. Visits to national parks
and tourism sites by domestic tourists will increase to XXX and XXX from 22,720 and
90,370 in 2020, respectively.
146. To promote tourism growth, the following programmes will be implemented:
a) Tourism infrastructure development

b) Tourism Product Development
c) Tourism Promotion and Marketing
d) Tourism Investment Promotion
7.1.5. Strategy 5: Improve transport and logistics
147. Improvements will be made in the transport and logistics sub-sectors, with the
focus on positioning the country as a regional transport and logistics hub. This is will
be done through the maintenance, development, modernisation and integration of
road, rail, air and water infrastructure. This will also contribute to the opening up of
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remote areas for development and enhance participation of local communities in
the economy. Among the key measures for the effective implementation of this
strategy will be to strengthen local-level capacities for planning and development of
transport infrastructure. Further, Government will take deliberate steps to ensure that
at least 30 percent of bulk cargo is moved off the roads to the rail through
improvements to rail infrastructure.
148. The volume of cargo transported via roads, rail and air are also expected to
increase annually by 5 million metric tonnes of cargo from 30.4 million metric tonnes
recorded in 2020. With this increase, it is expected that the transport and logistics sub-
sector will register an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent from an annual
average of 0.6 percent over 2011 to 2020.
149. To improve transport and logistics, the following programmes will be

implemented:
a) Aviation Development
b) Road development and maintenance
c) Rail development and maintenance
d) Inland Water development and maintenance
e) Inland dry ports development
f) Trade centre development
g) Warehousing development
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7.1.6. Strategy 6: Enhance Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electricity
150. In the electricity subsector, reforms will be implemented to make the sector
efficient and effective. Focus will be on increasing electricity generation capacity and
the promoting of alternative renewable energy as well as scaling rural electrification.
The increase in the generation capacity will be anchored on the reforms that will be
undertaken in the electricity sub-sector to attract private sector investments. Further,
the operations of Zesco limited will be streamlined to promote efficiency and
sustainability. As part of the diversification agenda, Government will continue
promoting investments in green and clean energy solutions to make the energy sector
more resilient and supportive of industrialisation.
151. Increased investment in the sector will result in an increase in electricity

generation capacity to 4,057 MW in 2026 from 3,307.43MW in 2021. The percent of
renewable energy in the national installed electricity capacity, excluding large
hydroelectricity generation, will increase to 10 percent from 3 percent over the same
period. 15 additional renewable energy off-grid projects will be developed by 2021 in
addition to the 7 in 2021.
152. To enhance electricity generation, transmission and distribution, the following

programmes will be implemented:
a) Electricity generation and distribution

b) Energy efficiency promotion
c)
d)
Promotion of off-grid energy solutions
Renewable and Alternative Energy Promotion
7.1.7. circulation
Strategy 7: Enhance the management of petroleum products
153. Government will enhance the management of the petroleum sector by

investing in infrastructure and implementing reforms aimed at reorganising the
procurement and supply processes to ensure efficiency and sustainability.
Government will also promote the blending of petroleum products and biofuels to
lower the cost of fuel.
154. The total fuel storage capacity will increase to 524,848 by 2026 from 401,348 in
2021 and the percentage of biofuel in the national fuel mix will be 20 percent by 2026
from nothing in 2021.
155. This will be done through the implementation of the following programmes:
a) Petroleum pricing and supply management

b) Petroleum infrastructure development
c) Alternative fuel production and promotion
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7.1.8. Strategy 8: Enhance management and productive use of water resources
156. Sustainable investment in water resources development and management will

help meet the rising demand and productive use of water, while safeguarding water
security. Interventions will include water harvesting and groundwater resources
management and the following programmes will be implemented:
a) Transboundary water cooperation and benefit-sharing

b) Water harvesting
c) Groundwater resources development
d) Water resources management
e) Inter-and intra-basin water transfer
f) Protection of aquifers and protected water sources
7.1.9. Strategy 9: Enhancement of digital capacity
157. The integration of digital technologies into businesses processes will be key to
enhancing efficiency and productivity for economic transformation. To advance the
digitalisation agenda, Government will continue the with roll-out of digital
communications infrastructure, including the launch of a satellite. This will also ensure
that citizens in rural areas are connected to socio-economic services through mobile
phones and other electronic devices. Further, Government will facilitate additional
investments in building digital skills especially among the youth to provide a good
foundation for innovation, including in science and technology. As a result, Internet
penetration will increase to 80 percent from 52.9 percent in 2020.
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158. To promote the enhancement of digital capacity, the following programmes
a) ICT infrastructure development

b) Digital innovation and entrepreneurship
c) Digital skills enhancement
d) Digital services promotion
7.1.10. Strategy 10: Promote applied research and development
159. In pursuit of economic transformation through industrialisation and

diversification, Government will promote science, technology and innovation (STI) as
well as applied research and development (R&D). A complementary strategy will be
the promotion of Science, Technology and Mathematics (STEM) in institutions of
learning to build a critical mass of qualified human resource for R&D and leveraging
digitalisation. Government will also reform the institutional and coordination
arrangements in R&D to enhance investments and the commercialization of
innovations. This will include putting in place measures to incentivize innovation. It is
expected that these interventions will increase product development, productivity
and contribute to competitiveness of the economy.
49
160. To promote applied research and development, the following programmes will
be implemented:
a) Research and development promotion

b) Product Development and Commercialisation
c) Intellectual Property Promotion and Protection
Table 14: Strategies and Programmes
Strategy Programme
1. Improve agriculture a) Agriculture, fisheries and livestock infrastructure
production and development
productivity b) Agricultural mechanisation
c) Comprehensive Farmer Input Support
d) Agroforestry and tree crops development
e) Agribusiness development
f) Irrigation development
g) Fisheries and aquaculture development
h) Research and Development
i) Livestock development
j) Extension Services
k) Early warning and surveillance systems
l) Farm block development
2. Promote mining of a) Mineral and petroleum exploration and

traditional and non- exploitation
traditional minerals b) Mineral Tax and Mining Reforms
c) Mineral beneficiation and value addition
d) Artisanal and small-scale mining development
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3. Promote value addition
and manufacturing
a)
b)
Value Chain Development
Market Linkages
c) Investment promotion
d) Multi-Facility Economic Zones and Industrial
Parks
e) Industry relevant skills promotion
4. Promote tourism a) Tourism infrastructure development

diversification b) Tourism Product Development
c) Tourism Promotion and Marketing
d) Tourism Investment Promotion
5. Improve transport and a) Aviation Development

logistics b) Road development and maintenance
c) Rail development and maintenance
d) Inland Water development and maintenance
e) Inland dry ports development
f) Trade centre development
g) Warehousing development
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Strategy Programme
6. Enhance Generation, a) Electricity generation and distribution
Transmission and b) Energy efficiency promotion
Distribution of Electricity c) Promotion of off-grid energy solutions
d) Renewable and Alternative Energy Promotion
7. Enhance the a) Petroleum pricing and supply management

management of b) Petroleum infrastructure development
petroleum products c) Alternative fuel production and promotion
8. Enhance management a) Transboundary water cooperation and benefit-

and productive use of sharing
water resources b) Water harvesting
c) Groundwater resources development
d) Water resources management
e) Inter-and intra-basin water transfer
f) Protection of aquifers and protected water
sources
9. Enhancement of digital a) ICT infrastructure development

capacity b) Digital innovation and entrepreneurship
c) Digital skills enhancement
d) Digital services promotion
10. Promote applied a) Research and development promotion

research
development
and b) Product Development and Commercialisation
c) Intellectual Property Promotion and Protection
7.2.
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DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: ENHANCED CITIZENRY PARTICIPATION IN THE
ECONOMY
161. Citizens’ participation in economic activity is important to achieve economic
transformation and job creation. However, citizen participation has been relatively
low with few major locally owned enterprises and businesses. Therefore, Government
will provide incentives for Zambians, including those living in the diaspora, to
participate in the economy. Further, Government will promote enterprise
development and technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills training. This will
be done through the following strategies:
7.2.1. Strategy 1: Promote local and diaspora participation in the economy
162. In view of the low participation of Zambians in the economy, there is need to
implement interventions to enable the effective participation in job and wealth
creation. This will be done through encouraging local investments by reserving
particular businesses for Zambians, improving access to low-cost finance, targeting
citizens for preferential procurements and formalisation of the informal sector.
163. Government will also strengthen the implementation of the Diaspora Policy to
promote and facilitate increased remittances and investment. This will be done by
addressing the high cost of remittances, providing comprehensive information on
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available opportunities in Zambia and providing an effective engagement framework
that would allow the Zambians living abroad to actively participate in national
development. These interventions will have trickle-down effects on the employment
and empowerment of youth in all provinces, districts, constituencies and wards.
164. To promote local and diaspora participation in the economy, the following
a) Reservation scheme expansion

b) Preferential procurement
c) Diaspora investment promotion
d) Women, youth and persons with disabilities empowerment
e) Informal sector formalisation
7.2.2. Strategy 2: Promote Enterprise development
165. Enterprise development is key for economic transformation and job creation.
Government will provide an enabling environment for formation of businesses and
cooperatives, facilitation of mentorship and business services and promote access to
domestic and external markets and credit for entrepreneurs. Further, Government will
provide credit guarantee schemes and operationalise industrial yards.
166. To promote enterprise development, the following programmes will be

implemented:
a) Small and medium scale enterprises development
b) Cooperatives development
c)
d) circulation
Business development services provision
Enterprise development initiative
7.2.3. Strategy 3: Promote technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills
167. To support local participation in the economy, Government will scale-up the
provision of technical, vocational and entrepreneurship skills to support growth of
enterprises. Further, measures will be put in place to incentivise the private sector in
facilitating internships, mentorships and apprenticeships. Government will also
increase the disbursement of resources to the sub-national level to support women,
youth and persons with disabilities with skills development at constituencies and ward
levels. The following programmes will be implemented:
a) TEVET Skills Development

b) Up-Skilling and Re-Skilling
c) Mentorship and Apprenticeship
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Strategy Programme
1. Promote local and diaspora a) Reservation scheme expansion
participation in the economy b) Preferential procurement
c) Diaspora investment promotion
d) Women, youth and persons with
disabilities empowerment
e) Informal sector formalisation
2. Promote Enterprise development a) Small and medium scale
enterprises development
b) Cooperatives development
c) Business development services
provision
d) Enterprise development initiative
3. Promote technical, vocational and a) TEVET Skills Development
entrepreneurship skills b) Up-Skilling and Re-Skilling
c) Mentorship and Apprenticeship
7.3. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: A COMPETITIVE PRIVATE SECTOR

168. A competitive private sector is needed to change the economic fortunes of
the country to achieve socio-economic transformation for improved livelihoods. In this
regard, Government will promote product quality and competition as well as facilitate
increased domestic and international trade, including access to finance for
production and exports. Government will also provide a predictable and favourable
policy and regulatory environment, including streamlining regulatory and licensing
procedures. Further, Government will establish a holistic framework for public-private
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sector engagement.
7.3.1. Strategy 1: Promote quality and productivity
169. To promote the competitiveness of Zambian products in local and international

markets, the uptake of standards and quality assurance as well as adherence to
sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements will be enhanced and relevant
institutions will be strengthened. In addition, Government will strengthen measures for
fair competition in the domestic market to spur innovations and improve the quality
of goods and services. Productivity improvement will also be promoted through the
implementation of programmes such as Kaizen, which is proven to promote both
quality and productivity.
170. To promote product quality, productivity and competition, the following

a) Product standardisation and quality assurance

b) SPS compliance support
c) Fair competition promotion
d) Quality and productivity enhancement
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7.3.2. Strategy 2: Facilitate increased domestic and international trade
171. Facilitating access to domestic and international trade is important for private
sector competitiveness. In this regard, Government will implement measures to
address trade-related bottlenecks that impede private sector competitiveness.
Measures that will be taken will include supporting small and medium-sized
enterprises’ production lines by facilitating linkages with larger local and regional
value chains. To increase trade opportunities, Government will implement trade
facilitation measures, trade promotion and facilitate the provision of market
information services for both the domestic and foreign markets. Government will also
digitize processes and regulatory requirements around trade facilitation and market
information services.
172. To facilitate increased domestic and international trade, the following

a) Coordinated Border Management

b) Market Information Services
c) Commodity Exchange Platform
d) Inter-Country Trade Centre Establishment
e) International Cooperation and Economic Diplomacy
f) Business regulation
7.3.3. Strategy 3: Improve access to finance for production and exports

173. Concerted efforts will be taken to ease access to affordable finance,
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especially for small and medium enterprises. This is will include export trade finance,
third party credit risk mitigation and enhancing development of capital markets to
provide long term finance. The private sector will play a key role in the development
and provision of financial products to support production and trade. Government will
also strengthen the alternative investment market on the Lusaka Stock Exchange as
a vehicle through which small and medium enterprises can access long term
financing.
174. To improve access to finance for production and exports, the following
a) Credit guarantee scheme

b) Capital markets development
c) Impact capital investment
d) Alternative finance promotion
e) Trade Finance
f) Public-private sector joint venture promotion
g) Zambia-foreign joint venture and partnership promotion
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Strategy Programme
1. Promote productivity a) Product standardisation and quality assurance
and product quality b) SPS compliance support
c) Fair competition promotion
d) Quality and productivity enhancement
2. Facilitate increased a) Coordinated Border Management

domestic and b) Market Information Services
international trade c) Commodity Exchange Platform
d) Inter-Country Trade Centre Establishment
e) International Cooperation and Economic
Diplomacy
f) Business regulation
3. Improve access to a) Credit guarantee scheme

finance for production b) Capital markets development
and exports c) Impact capital investment
d) Alternative finance promotion
e) Trade Finance
f) Public-private sector joint venture promotion
g) Zambia-foreign joint venture and partnership
promotion

circulation
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8. HUMAN AND
SOCIALDEVELOPMENT
8.1. OVERVIEW
175. Human and social development is fundamental to inclusive development and

is a catalytic ingredient to the transformation of the country. This includes addressing
the vicious cycle of poverty, inequality and vulnerability. It also entails providing equal
opportunities for every citizen to develop to their full potential and effectively
contribute to the development of the country. This Strategic Development Area,
therefore, addresses the need to develop human capacities, through investments
and interventions in education and skills development, health and nutrition, water and
sanitation and reducing poverty and inequalities. To ensure this, Government will
involve communities in the planning, decision making and delivery of public services.
8.2. CURRENT STATUS
176. The country has continued to register progress in service delivery for human
development.
With regard to education, the country has made strides in achieving universal primary
education and gender parity. As at 2020 net primary enrolment rates stood at 81.8
percent as compared to 87.9 percent in 2017. Improvements have also been
registered in the proportion of girls in school at primary level with the country attaining
gender parity of 1.03 in 2020 compared to 1.00 in 2017. This means that in 2020, for
every 100 boys enrolled in primary school, 103 girls were enrolled. At secondary level,
in 2020 net enrolment stood at 37.4 percent compared to 42.9 percent in 2017.
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Gender parity stood at .94 in 2020 compared to .90 in 2017. This implies that in 2020 for
every 100 boys enrolled at secondary level, 94 girls were enrolled.
177. The teacher-pupil ratio at both primary and secondary education, a proxy for
the quality of education, also registered improvements. A lower teacher-pupil ratio
implies that the teacher spends more time with a learner. At primary level, the
teacher-pupil ratio was one teacher per 57 pupils in 2020 from 58.5 in 2017, against
the internationally acceptable threshold of one teacher per 40 pupils. Teacher-pupil
ratio, however, at secondary school, in 2020 was 26.1 compared to 32.3 in 2017, which
was within the acceptable standard of one teacher per 35 pupils. Although the
country recorded this at secondary school level, this is an indication of low transition
and retention rates.
178. Under skills development, progress was made in increasing access to

vocational and skills training through the construction of training facilities in selected
rural districts. Further, Government introduced the TEVET bursary scheme to
encourage and increase the number of youths taking up skills training especially
females and person with disabilities for whom 30 percent and 10 percent, respectively,
are reserved. However, more needs to be done to enhance access to TEVET training
as the 2020 National Skills Survey Report indicated a skills gap in the technical
workforce in Zambia.
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179. The industries exhibiting high number of skills gaps include wholesale and retail
trade repairs of motor vehicles and motorcycles, manufacturing, accommodation
and food services activities, education, other services as well as agriculture, forestry
and fishing. Further, Zambia’s TEVET system requires an improvement in the quality of
training offered. For instance, 62.3 percent of the registered TEVET institutions were in
the grade three category, which is the lowest level in the quality grading system, 29.9
percent of the institutions were in grade two, while only 7.8 percent were in grade one
in 2021. The foregoing, indicates the need to enhance access and quality of technical
and vocational training in the country.
180. With regard to university education, while more universities have been
established, there is a weak regulatory framework which has led to the compromise
in the quality of university education. There is also inadequate qualified manpower to
teach at higher levels.
181. The country has made strides in improving the health status of citizens. Maternal
mortality reduced from 398 in 2014 to 278 per 100,000 live births in 2018. Similarly, under
5 Mortality Rates have reduced from 75 in 2014 to 61 per1000 live births in 2018. Infant
mortality rate reduced from 45 in 2014 to 42 per1000 live births in 2018 while child
mortality rate reduced from 31 in 2014 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2018. Despite these
improvements, the mortality rates remain relatively high.
182. The country currently experiences high disease burden. The top 5 causes of
mortality include malaria, anaemia, cardio-vascular diseases, pneumonia and
tuberculosis. Among the major factors leading to high disease burden are high
prevalence and incidence of infectious diseases and the increase in non-
communicable diseases.
183. Zambia’s total fertility rate (TFR) remains high at 4.7 children per woman as at
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2018. Teenage pregnancies are also high at 29.0 percent mostly due to high levels of
child marriages, early sexual debut, and inadequate information on reproductive
health. This has constrained women’s participation in the economy, further leading to
undesirable economic and social outcomes.
184. Progress has been made in enhancing early childhood development and
nutrition. The 2018 ZDHS showed slight improvements in nutrition indicators between
2013/14 and 2018, with stunting moving from 40 percent to 35 percent, wasting from
6 percent to 4 percent and underweight births from 15 percent to12 percent. The
improvement has been on account of nutrition programmes such as first 1000 Critical
Days from conception, nurturing care for early childhood development, early
childhood education, child immunisation and child-care and protection services
including birth registration. Evidence has shown that poor nutrition has a bearing on
cognitive development, physical work capacity, health status and earnings in
adulthood.
185. In water and sanitation, progress has been made in increasing access to safe
drinking water and adequate sanitation services. According to the 2018 ZDHS, the
proportion of households with access to improved drinking water at national level
increased to 72.5 percent from 64.5 percent in 2014. For urban and rural areas, the
proportion of households accessing clean water increased to 93 percent and 58
percent from 89.5 percent and 46.6 percent, respectively, in the same period. The
proportion of households with access to sanitation increased to 54.4 percent in 2018
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from 25.4 percent in 2014. In urban areas, access to basic sanitation increased to 77.7
percent in 2018 from 35 percent in 2014 while, in rural areas access increased to 37.2
percent from 18.5 percent. While water and sanitation coverage rates in the country
have generally improved, aggregate figures mask disparities between urban and
rural areas. Hence, strategic interventions are required to narrow the inequalities.
186. The prevalence of poverty levels in the country is progressively reducing. Total
poverty reduced to 54.4 percent in 2015 from 62.8 percent in 2006. Despite the
reduction in total poverty levels, extreme poverty still remains significantly high at 40.8
percent in 2015. In rural areas, Poverty remained higher at 76.6 percent compared to
23.4 percent in urban areas as of 2015. Notwithstanding, this, the Multi-Dimensional
Poverty Index (MPI) showed an improving trend from 50 percent in 2014 to 44 percent
in 2018. The reduction in poverty levels have in part been impacted by the expansion
of social protection programmes such as the Social Cash Transfer programme and
other livelihood adaptation programmes that have been piloted across the country
especially in the rural areas that have in recent year suffered the effects of climate
change.
8.3. CONSTRAINTS
187. The attainment of human development is constrained by various factors with

the inadequacy of infrastructure and dearth of human resources being the major
issues.
188. For education and skills development, the system is also characterised by
limited furniture such as desks, lack of educational materials and inadequate ICT
equipment to support learning. At Early Childhood Education (ECE) level, factors
contributing to poor quality of education include: lack of appropriate facilities and
teaching aids to allow for play and mental stimulation for early childhood learners.
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The level of deprivation is more pronounced in the rural and remote areas thus most
children enter primary school with no ECE experience which delays their ability to
acquire literacy and numeracy skills.
189. The constraints in the health sector include, inadequate and obsolete medical
equipment and supplies, inadequate health personnel, long distances to health
centres and inadequate transport facilities, poor health seeking behaviour and low
coverage of national health insurance. Another constraint relates to inadequate
dietary diversity to promote health and nutrition status of the people.
190. In water and sanitation, the key constraint relates to inadequate and
dilapidated infrastructure, especially in rural areas. Others include the increase in
unplanned settlements, weak management and monitoring of water resources and
unregulated access to water sources.
191. The 8NDP contains various interventions to address the constraints under this
Strategic Development Area.
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8.4. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED EDUCATION AND SKILLS
DEVELOPMENT
192. To improve education and skills development, Government will focus on

expanding access and improving quality of early childhood, primary and secondary
education as well as technical education, vocational and entrepreneurship training
and higher education. The strategies outlined below will, therefore, be implemented.
8.4.1. Strategy 1: Enhance access to quality, equitable and inclusive education
193. In the 8NDP period, Government will ensure that all learners have access to
equitable inclusive quality education that prepares them to pursue higher education.
This will be done through the recruitment and placement of more teachers in needy
areas, provision of free education from early childhood to secondary school
education and bursaries using a decentralised approach. Additionally, construction
of more secondary schools and other school infrastructure including the completion
of incomplete classroom structures will be undertaken. The delivery of education using
ICT platforms will also be promoted. To ensure that schools are adequately equipped
to deliver quality and relevant education, focus will also be on enhancing the supply
of educational requisites, including procurement of school desks and learning
materials.
194. Further, the education curriculum will be reviewed to ensure that it provides life
relevant knowledge and skills and promotes the application of national values and
principles. This will include, building the skills of learners to increase their uptake of
science and technology. The objective is to, from an early age, increase leaners
interest in science and technology to facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship.
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195. Additionally, to ensure a lifecycle approach to education, priority will be given
to nurturing and supporting early childhood development and facilitating a
conducive learning environment to support early development of literacy, numeracy
and problem-solving skills. Government will continue supporting initiatives to improve
the physical and cognitive health outcomes for children between ages 0 - 6,
especially during the first 1000 days of life, which are the critical years for a child’s
cognitive and healthy long-term development, productivity, and social cohesion
under Early Childhood Development (ECD). Further, Government will continue
implementing initiatives aimed at keeping girls in school as well as enhancing
readmissions of school drop-outs, including adult learners.
196. With the above measures, the net enrolment ratio is expected to increase to
100 by 2026 from 86.1 in 2020 for primary schools, while ratio for secondary schools will
increase to 60 from 37.6. In addition, the pupil-teacher ratio is targeted to reduce from
the current 57 to 45 pupils per teacher for primary schools. For secondary schools, the
country will attain the recommended pupil teacher ratio of 1 to 35 from the 1 to 26.1
in 2020. Adult literacy for the population aged 15 – 49 years will increase to 85 and 90
percent by 2026 from 66.4 and 81.8 percent in 2020, for women and men, respectively.
59
197. To enhance access to quality, equity and inclusive education the following
a) Early Childhood Education

b) Primary Education
c) Secondary Education
d) Curriculum Development
e) Human resource development
f) Infrastructure Development
g) Youth and Adult Literacy
h) ICT Promotion
i) Science, technology, engineering and mathematics promotion
j) Menstrual Hygiene Management
8.4.2. Strategy 2: Improve Technical, Vocational and Entrepreneurship skills
198. To improve Vocational, Technical and Entrepreneurship skills, the main focus
will be on strengthening the regulatory and quality assurance frameworks, undertake
regular upgrading of training equipment and expansion of training facilities. In
addition, the qualifications for TEVET skills will be upgraded to allow for progression. To
ensure that TEVET training is relevant to industry, the curriculum will continuously be
reviewed to ensure that it responds to the demands of industry. Additionally, learning
pathways such as Work-Based Learning, in particular internship and apprenticeship
will be promoted. Government will also ensure sustainable financing of the TEVET
system.

199. In addition, Government will scale-up and decentralise the skills development
bursary scheme to the local level. This will enhance the targeting of beneficiaries as
they will be identified by the communities and improve access to skills training by
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vulnerable youths.
200. By the end of the Plan period, the quality of TEVET services will be improved.
This improvement will be manifested in the upgrading of TEVET institutions with 40
percent of institutions classified as grade one in 2026 from 7.8 percent in 2021 and the
percentage of grade three institutions reducing to 30 percent from 62.3 percent. The
skills gap in the different industries will also be reduced.
201. To improve vocational, technical and entrepreneurship skills the following

a) Technical Education, Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training

b) Curriculum Review and Development
c) Research and Development
d) Internship and Apprenticeship
e) Digital Skills development
f) Human Resource Development
60
8.4.3. Strategy 3: Increased access to higher education
202. To increase access to public universities and other higher learning institutions,
Government will reform the bursary and student loan system so that students who
cannot afford to pay fees are supported. Further, to enhance the development of an
innovative society, the bursaries and student loans will be steered towards science,
technology, engineering and mathematics. Investment will also be made in
infrastructure and education-industry linkages to ensure that graduates have relevant
and employable skills. Government will continue creating an enabling environment
for the private sector to thrive in the delivery of higher education.
203. To increase access to universities and other higher learning institutions, the
following programmes will be implemented:
a) Infrastructure Development
b) Human Resource Development
c) Loans and Scholarship Scheme
d) Curriculum Review and Development
e) Private Sector Promotion
8.4.4. Strategy 4: Enhance science, technology and innovation
204. To promote science, technology and innovation, investment for research and
development will be enhanced, including in institutions of higher learning. This will be
done through utilisation of various funds such as the Strategic Research Fund and the
Science, Technology and Innovation Youth Fund. Further, partnerships between
higher learning institutions and state and non-state actors will be promoted to
enhance the uptake of research. STEM education that promotes research,
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innovation, productivity and competitiveness for national and international demands
will be promoted. The development and application of digital skills to support the
country’s transformation to a digital economy will also be promoted.
205. To enhance science, technology and innovation, the following programmes

a) STEM Promotion
b) Applied Research and Development
c) Curriculum Development
d) Industry linkages promotion
e) Science and technology infrastructure development
Strategy Programme
1. Enhance access to a) Early Childhood Education
quality, equitable and b) Primary Education
inclusive education c) Secondary Education
d) Curriculum Development
e) Human resource development
f) Infrastructure Development
g) Youth and Adult Literacy
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Strategy Programme
h) ICT Promotion
i) Science, technology, engineering and
mathematics promotion
j) Menstrual Hygiene Management
1. Improve Technical, a) Technical Education, Vocational and

Vocational and Entrepreneurship Training
Entrepreneurship skills b) Curriculum Review and Development
d) Internship and Apprenticeship
e) Digital Skills development
f) Human Resource Development
2. Increased access to a) Infrastructure Development

higher education b) Human Resource Development
c) Loans and Scholarship Scheme
d) Curriculum Review and Development
e) Private Sector Promotion
3. Enhance science,
technology, and a) STEM Promotion
innovation b) Applied Research and Development
c) Curriculum Development
d) Industry linkages promotion
For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for e) Science

development
and technology infrastructure
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8.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED HEALTH AND NUTRITION
206. To improve health and nutrition, Government will focus on strengthening public
health, increasing access to quality healthcare, promoting the participation of non-
state actors in healthcare delivery, enhancing nutrition and strengthening integrated
health systems.
8.5.1. Strategy 1: Strengthen Public health
207. In the 8NDP Period, Government will devolve the provision of district health
services to enhance decision making for effective service delivery. This will strengthen
public health for the prevention and control of communicable and non-
communicable diseases, epidemic preparedness and control as well as Health
Security and Surveillance, among others.
208. To strengthen public health, the following programmes will be implemented:
a) Diseases prevention and control

b) Health education and promotion
c) Maternal Health Care
d) Child survival and development
e) Family planning
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f) Epidemic preparedness and control
g) Health security and surveillance
8.5.2. Strategy 2: Increase access to quality healthcare
209. During the Plan period, intervention will be aimed at increasing access to
quality healthcare by scaling up; recruitment of health personnel to reduce the health
personnel ratio, ensure availability of medicines and medical supplies. In addition,
infrastructure development as well as the equipping of health facilities will be
prioritised. Further, the national health insurance will be rolled-out to include informal
sector. The Government will leverage on the national health insurance scheme to
facilitate wider healthcare delivery by onboarding more private sector providers.
Further, Government will partner with the private sector to create centres of
specialisation in the provision of health services.
210. With this intervention it is expected that the health personnel ratio will increase
to XXX by 2026 from xxx in 2020. It is also expected that the availability of essential
drugs and medical supplies will increase to at least 90 percent fill rates by 2026 from
40 percent in 2020. Further, it is envisaged that the proportion of hospitals with fully
functional recommended equipment should improve to 85 percent by 2026 from 20
percent in 2020. By 2026, all Zambians will be covered by the national health insurance
from the coverage of 25 percent in 2021.
211. To increase access to quality health care, the following programmes will be
implemented:
a) Infrastructure development
b) Medicines and Medical Supplies
c)
d)
e)
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Equipment and Transport
Health Insurance
Mobile health services
f) Specialised health services
g) Human Resource Development
8.5.3. Strategy 3: Enhanced Nutrition
212. To enhance nutrition status of Zambians Government will eliminate all forms of
malnutrition through support of appropriate feeding practices for school children and
adolescents, support micronutrients fortification and supplementation, scale-up
nutrition programmes. Government will further strengthen research in nutrition and
food systems to facilitate formulation of appropriate interventions. Other interventions
will be focused on strengthening institutional framework for coordination of national
nutrition and sustainable food systems.
213. Owing to these interventions, it is expected that underweight prevalence will

reduce to 8 per 1,000 population by 2026 from 12 per 1,000 population while wasting
will reduce to 3 per 1,000 population by 2026 from 4 per 1,000 population in 2018.
Stunting is expected to xxx by 2026 from 36 in 2018.
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214. To enhance nutrition, the following programmes will be implemented:
a) Scale-up nutrition
b) Supplementary school feeding
c) Nutrition Institutional Governance
d) Sustainable food systems
e) Micro-nutrients fortification and supplementation
f) Research and development
g) Institutional feeding enhancement
8.5.4. Strategy 4: Strengthen Integrated Health Information Systems
215. During the Plan period, Government will continue to strengthen the integrated
health information system in order to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the
health sector. Among the programmes to be implemented will include, health
processes automation, strengthening integrated health care financing, integrated
health information system, civil and vital registration and research and development.
216. To strengthen integrated health systems, the following programmes will be

implemented:
a) Health information management system

b) Civil and vital registration integration

Strategy Programme
1. Strengthen Public health a) Diseases prevention and control
b) Health education and promotion
circulation c) Maternal Health Care

d) Child survival and development
e) Family planning
f) Epidemic preparedness and control
g) Health security and surveillance
2. Increase access to a) Infrastructure development

quality health care b) Medicines and Medical Supplies
c) Equipment and Transport
d) Health Insurance
e) Mobile health services
f) Specialised health services
g) Human Resource Development
3. Enhanced Nutrition a) Scale-up nutrition

b) Supplementary school feeding
c) Nutrition Institutional Governance
d) Sustainable food systems
e) Micro-nutrients fortification and supplementation
f) Research and development
g) Institutional feeding enhancement
64
Strategy Programme
4. Strengthen Integrated a) Health information management system
Health Information b) Civil and vital registration integration
Systems
8.6. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 3: IMPROVED WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION
217. To improve water supply and sanitation, Government will promote investment
in the water sector, enhance access to clean and safe water supply and access to
improved sanitation. Further, Government will establish a sustainable financing
mechanism for the sector that will facilitate mobilisation of local and international
financing for water supply and sanitation programmes including through Public-
Private Partnership.
8.6.1. Strategy 1: Improve access to clean and safe water supply
218. In the Plan period, Government will prioritise the provision of safe water and
improved sanitation across the country, especially in districts, constituencies and
wards where there have been water deficiencies. Key programmes to be
implemented will include Water supply infrastructure development and
maintenance, water quality monitoring and the protection of aquifers and protected
water sources. Key programmes to enhance access to improved sanitation will
include sanitation infrastructure development and maintenance, sanitation and
personal hygiene promotion, capacity development, solid waste management and
health and hygiene education.

219. Constituencies and wards will be facilitated to identify areas of need for water
and sanitation services and plan for the provision of such services to reduce
developmental inequalities related to access to social services. Further, the enhanced
circulation
allocation of the CDF will assist in accelerating of investment in the water sector
220. The implementation of these measures will lead to an increase in access to safe
water to 67 percent by 2026 from 58 percent in 2018 for rural areas and to 98 percent
by 2026 from 91.8 percent in 2018 for urban areas. Further, access to sanitation will
increase to 55 percent by 2026 from 37.2 percent in 2018 and to 90 percent by 2026
from 77.7 percent in 2018 for rural and urban areas, respectively.
221. To improve access to clean and safe water supply and sanitation, the following
a) Water supply infrastructure

b) Water quality monitoring
8.6.2. Strategy 2: Improve Sanitation Services
222. Government will strengthen sewerage and solid waste management by

enhancing financing to address the constraint of inadequate infrastructure in the
sanitation sub-sector. Promotion of sustainable sanitation practices will also be scaled-
up.
65
223. To improve sanitation services, the following programmes will be implemented:
a) sanitation infrastructure
b) Solid waste management
c) Sanitation and hygiene promotion
d) Private sector investment promotion
Strategy Programme
1. Improve access to a) Water supply infrastructure
clean and safe water b) Water quality monitoring
supply
2. Improve Sanitation a) sanitation infrastructure
Services b) Solid waste management
c) Sanitation and hygiene promotion
d) Private sector investment promotion
8.7. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 4: REDUCED POVERTY, VULNERABILITY AND

INEQUALITIES
224. To reduce poverty, vulnerability and inequalities, Government will focus on

improving coordination of social protection programmes, enhancing welfare and
livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people, reducing developmental inequalities,
reducing vulnerability and violence against women and children, extending social
security coverage and enhancing multi-sectoral disaster management.
8.7.1. Strategy 1: Improved Coordination of Social Protection Programmes
circulation
225. Government will continue to harmonise and strengthen social protection
delivery systems at district and community level in order to address the multiple causes
of poverty and vulnerability and ultimately improve efficiency in the delivery of social
protection programmes. Government will review and harmonise all social protection
related pieces of legislation and domesticate international social protection
agreements. Further, to assist in planning, policy formulation and eliminate duplication
within social protection programmes, full use will be made of the Zambia Integrated
Social Protection Information System. In addition, the pension system will be reformed
to increase coverage and protect the vulnerable, and make it financially sustainable.
A key measure will be creation of the statutory pension and an occupational pension
especially for public sector employees.
226. To improve coordination of social protection programmes, the following

a) Social Protection integration

b) Review of Social Protection Legislation
c) Extension of Social Security Coverage
66
8.7.2. Strategy 2: Enhance welfare and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people
227. Government will continue to implement programmes aimed at improving

welfare and livelihoods of people, especially the poor and vulnerable, such as the
aged and people with disabilities. The number of beneficiaries and support offered to
interventions such as the social cash transfer (SCT), food security pack and the
keeping girls in school programme will be scaled up. Further, Government will link the
SCT transfer value to economic trends through the “Cash Plus” Agenda. This will allow
SCT beneficiaries to access programmes such as the food security pack, livelihood
schemes and human capital investments (nutrition, early childhood development,
primary and secondary education and skills development). This will contribute to
breaking the intergenerational cycle of poverty. The targeting and payment systems
for the social cash transfer will also be strengthened.
228. Livelihood and empowerment schemes will be decentralised to the community

level to ensure provision of resources directly to constituencies and wards, with
particular focus on women and youth. This will enhance targeting of interventions to
the most needy communities and households. Through empowerment schemes, local
businesses and service providers will also be supported with finances and market
linkages, thereby stimulating the local economy. Resettlement schemes will also be
used as a means of facilitating sustained empowerment of the poor and vulnerable
people such as unemployed, retired, internally displaced and the persons with
disability.
229. Government will promote the development of sport and art to protect the
wellbeing of the juveniles and children and reduce delinquency. In addition,
Government will prioritise interventions to reduce violence against women, children
and the vulnerable. In implementing these interventions, Government will sensitise
circulation
beneficiaries in order to inculcate the national values and principles.
230. The intervention highlighted will contribute to the reduction of poverty

prevalence to 45 percent by 2026 from 54.4 percent in 2015. Multi-dimensional poverty
will reduce to 38 percent in 2026 from 44 percent in 2018.
231. To enhance welfare and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people, the
a) Social Cash Transfer

b) Livelihood and Empowerment
c) Public Welfare Assistance Scheme.
d) Women and Youth Empowerment
e) Disability services
f) Sports, Culture and Arts
g) Resettlement Schemes Development
h) Self-help initiatives
i) Food security support
j) Women and Child Protection
67
8.7.3. Strategy 3: Reduce developmental inequalities
232. In an effort to reduce developmental disparities, Government will implement

interventions to address gender, income and spatial inequalities. Interventions to
promote gender equality will address issues related to the participation of women in
decisions making positions at all levels of governance and sustaining and improving
gender parity in education. To address income inequalities, livelihood and
empowerment programmes will be enhanced in order to positively impact on
incomes, while infrastructure development will be undertaken in different sectors to
address rural-urban disparities. This will include accelerating programmes on rural
electrification, rural access roads and enhancing access to other basic services.
233. The other measure that will be implemented in the Plan such as
decentralisation, enforcement of the rule of law will also contribute to reducing
developmental inequalities.
234. These interventions will contribute to a reduction in the income inequality with
the Gini coefficient decreasing to at least 0.54 in 2026 from 0.69 in 2015.
235. To reduce developmental inequalities, the following programmes will be

implemented:
a) Gender Equality Promotion

b) Integrated Development Planning
c) Rural-Urban Linkages
d) Rural Industrialisation
e)
f)
Life Skills Development and Resilience Building
Rural Electrification
g) Youth entrepreneurship and vocational skills training
circulation
Strategy Programme
1. Improved a) Social Protection integration
Coordination of b) Review of Social Protection Legislation
Social Protection c) Extension of Social Security Coverage
Programmes
2. Enhance welfare and a) Social Cash Transfer

livelihoods of poor b) Livelihood and Empowerment
and vulnerable c) Public Welfare Assistance Scheme.
people d) Women and Youth Empowerment
e) Disability services
f) Sports, Culture and Arts
g) Resettlement Schemes Development
h) Self-help initiatives
i) Food security support
j) Women and Child Protection
3. Reduce a) Gender Equality Promotion

developmental b) Integrated Development Planning
inequalities c) Rural-Urban Linkages
68
Strategy Programme
d) Rural Industrialisation
e) Life Skills Development and Resilience Building
f) Rural Electrification
g) Youth entrepreneurship and vocational skills
training

circulation
69
9. ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
9.1. OVERVIEW
236. Zambia’s Vision of attaining a prosperous middle-income status by 2030

emphasises development that is anchored on sustainable environment and natural
resource management principles. This means attainment of socio-economic
development which meets the needs of the current generation without compromising
the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs. This is also in line with the
2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development, the AU Agenda 2063 and the SADC
Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan.
9.2. CURRENT SITUATION
237. Unsustainable utilisation of natural resources in Zambia, is evidenced through

deforestation, land degradation, encroachment of protected areas, and
unsustainable fishing, among others, which have resulted in biodiversity loss. Land
cover maps for the years 2000 to 2015 show that human activities such as the
expansion of settlements and agriculture reduced forest cover from 47.05 million
hectares in 2000 to 45.94 million hectares in 2015. As of 2018, estimates indicate that
the country has been losing in excess of 172,000 hectares of forest cover per annum.
In addition, the country’s wetlands and aquifers have come under severe pressure
from development as the demand for housing and water increases. The country has
also suffered from biodiversity loss due to agricultural expansion, illegal abstraction of
forest, fisheries and wildlife resources, mining operations as well as the advent of
invasive species of plants and organisms.
238. Zambia is vulnerable to natural disasters and the impacts of climate change.
The 2020 University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index
ranked Zambia as the 41st most vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change
out of 182 countries. Climate change effects such as droughts, floods and extreme
temperatures on key sectors including energy, agriculture and water have led to
decreased hydroelectricity generation capacity, food insecurity and limited access
to clean drinking water for people and animals.
239. Zambia remains a net carbon sink, the net sink status reduced to -16,815.2 Gg
CO2 eq in 2010 from -57,124.0 Gigagrams (Gg) of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent
(eq) estimated in 1994. This was on account of greenhouse gas emissions from
different sectors of the economy increasing by 47 percent from 86,063 Gg in 1994 to
126,758 Gg in 201611.
240. Further, Zambia’s natural environment has come under threat on account of
poor environmental management practices including air, water and land pollution,
as well as poor sanitation and waste management. The mining and manufacturing
11 Zambia’s Third National Communication Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2020)
62
industries as well as the rising motor vehicle population are the major sources of air
pollution as they discharge harmful gases and dust particles into the atmosphere,
sometimes beyond the statutory limits. Additionally, water pollution is widespread with
the manufacturing, mining, sewage treatment facilities and agriculture being the
major polluters of both surface and groundwater, thereby limiting access to safe
water. Zambia is also facing increasing risks from poor chemical and solid waste
management from sources such as electrical and electronic waste (e-waste), which
may contain persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The environment has also been
adversely affected by poor solid waste management which is a threat to water
bodies and animals.
241. Therefore, during the Plan period, Government will enhance mitigation and
adaptation to climate change while promote sustainably manage the environment
and natural resources to promote environmental sustainability.
9.3. CONSTRAINTS
242. The constraints to environmental sustainability include undiversified sources of

income for sustainable livelihoods, and unsustainable agricultural practices and use
of environmental products; inadequate education and awareness on the
environment and the value of natural resources by communities; inadequate legal
and institutional frameworks for implementation of actions on the environment.
Additionally, there are low levels of technical and technological capacities for
implementation of climate change actions; low integration of climate change in key
sectors at the subnational level; and insufficient meteorological infrastructure and
services.
243. Further, there is limited participation of communities in the management of

natural resources. Systems for measuring the quantity and utilisation of natural
resources to inform policy decisions are also inadequate, compounded by the
uncoordinated implementation of natural resource management programmes. There
is also weak compliance and enforcement of environmental sustainability measures
and weak environmental monitoring and surveillance systems.
244. To overcome these constraints, Government will enhance education and

awareness-raising and revise the national policy on climate change to enhance the
green growth agenda. Complementary to these efforts, a green growth strategy will
be developed to promote the efficiency and productivity of natural resource use,
reduce pollution and improve the economy’s resilience to climate change. This will
be actualised through the implementation of strategies and programmes aimed at
achieving the development outcomes outlined below.
9.4. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: ENHANCED MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE
245. Under this development outcome, Government will prioritise the

implementation of measures to improve the adaptive capacity to climate change,
for both human and biophysical systems as well as promote sustainable consumption
and production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Government will also enact
legislation on climate change to strengthen the coordination framework, regulate the
63
carbon markets and provide for the establishment of a national climate change fund,
with a focus on possible benefits that could accrue to the local communities.
9.4.1. Strategy 1: Strengthen climate change adaptation
246. Implementing adaptation measures will contribute to building the resilience of

communities and the economy to the impacts of climate change. In the 8NDP,
therefore, Government will enhance the human and institutional capacities for
undertaking and supporting climate change actions. Further, improved production
and consumption practices will be promoted among communities to enhance
climate change adaptation. This will include engaging communities in actions such
as irrigation development and adoption of drought tolerant crop varieties and
livestock breeds aimed at strengthening resilience and sustaining livelihoods. The
programmes that will be implemented are:
a) Institutional Framework Strengthening

b) Climate Change Mainstreaming
d) Climate Resilient Infrastructure development
9.4.2. Strategy 2: Strengthen climate change Mitigation
247. To enhance climate change mitigation and promote low carbon

development, Government will implement various interventions in forestry, agriculture
and energy. In line with Nationally Appropriate Mitigations Actions (NAMAs) focus in
the forestry sector, will be on forestry enhancement, sustainable charcoal production,
improved cooking devices and forestry fire management. In agriculture, the focus will
be on climate-smart agriculture whilst in energy focus will be switching towards
renewable energy sources such as biogas, solar, wind and gas.
248. To strengthen climate change mitigation, the following programmes will be

implemented:
a) Pollution Prevention and Control

b) GHG Inventory Management
c) Sustainable Agriculture
d) Sustainable Forest Management
e) Technology Transfer
f) Renewable Energy and energy efficiency
9.4.3. Strategy 3: Enhance disaster risk reduction and response
249. To improve disaster risk management, Government will strengthen disaster risk
reduction, enhance early warning systems for early action and disaster preparedness
for effective response to build back better in recovery, rehabilitation and
reconstruction. Further, Government will undertake disaster risk assessments, establish
emergency operation centres, community-based disaster risk management
programmes and post disaster recovery activities for resilience building. Therefore, the
a) Climate Information Services
64
b) Early Warning systems
c) Disaster preparedness and mitigation
d) Disaster Response and recovery
Strategy Programme
1. Strengthen climate change a) Institutional Framework Strengthening
adaptation b) Climate Change Mainstreaming
d) Climate Resilient Infrastructure
development
2. Strengthen climate change a) Pollution Prevention and Control

mitigation b) GHG Inventory Management
c) Sustainable Agriculture
d) Sustainable Forest Management
e) Technology Transfer
f) Renewable Energy and energy efficiency
2. Enhance disaster risk reduction a) Climate Information Services

and response b) Early Warning systems
c) Disaster preparedness and mitigation
d) Disaster Response and recovery
9.5. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL

RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
250. Sustainable environment and natural resources management are necessary as

they will support the provision of basic human needs such as clean air, water, fertile
land for food and animal production and inputs for various production processes. It
also contributes to the regulation of the climate and prevention of flooding and
disease proliferation. Thus, priority will be on the promotion of integrated
environmental management and enhancing natural resources management.
9.5.1. Strategy 1: Promote integrated environmental management
251. During the Plan period, the focus will be on reversing unsustainable
environmental and natural resources management practices. Specific measures to
be implemented will be: the building of capacity in environmental protection
institutions, including local authorities, to restore and protect degraded landscapes
and water catchment areas; strengthening monitoring and environmental
assessments; and promoting sustainable consumption and production including
recycling, reducing resource use and reusing of resources. Government will also
enhance compliance monitoring of industries, enforce effective management of
hazardous chemicals as well as improve environmental tracking.
65
252. Owing to these interventions, it is expected that the Green Houses Gases
(GHG) emissions will reduce to-21,654.9 Gg CO2 (eq) by 2026 from -9,508.5 Gg CO2
eq. in 2016.
253. To promote integrated environmental management, the following

a) Pollution prevention and control

b) Environmental Compliance Promotion and Tracking
c) Urban and Regional Planning and Compliance Monitoring
9.5.2. Strategy 2: Enhance natural resources management
254. Government will implement programmes aimed at reversing the growing

threats to natural resources ranging from habitat transformation, encroachment,
uncontrolled wildfires and invasive species. Among the key interventions will be to
enhance community participation in natural resource management. The operations
of structures such as the natural resources management committees, game
management areas committees, forest management committees, water
management committees will therefore be strengthened. Further, Government will
promote the quantification and valuation of natural resources and ecosystem
services. Conservation plans for critical wetlands will also be operationalised.
Government will also strengthen research and technology development while
addressing illegal land-use change with local authorities and other relevant institutions
and stakeholders. A major policy shift during the 8NDP will be to ban the production
and consumption of charcoal by 2025. In this regard, measures will be put in place to
protect the livelihoods of those in the charcoal value chain and promote alternative
energy sources for charcoal users.
255. With this intervention, it is expected that the deforestation rate will reduce to
120,000 of forest cover per annum by 2026 from current 172,000 of forest cover per
annum in 2021
256. To enhance natural resources management, the following programmes will be

implemented:
a) Sustainable Forest Management

b) Sustainable Wildlife Management
c) Water Catchment Protection and Conservation
d) Natural resource valuation and accounting
66
Strategy Programme
1. Promote integrated a) Pollution prevention and control
environmental management b) Environmental Compliance Promotion
and Tracking
c) Urban and Regional Planning and
Compliance Monitoring
2. Enhance natural resources a) Sustainable Forest Management

management b) Sustainable Wildlife Management
c) Water Catchment Protection and
Conservation
d) Natural resource valuation and
accounting
67
10. A GOOD GOVERNANCE
ENVIRONMENT
10.1 OVERVIEW
257. Good governance entails respect for human rights and freedoms, entrenching
transparency and accountability, participation, strengthening the democratic
process, enhancing access to justice and observance of the rule of law and
upholding national values and principles. It entails having strong and independent
institutions. Good governance is an important precursor for transforming the
economy, sustaining economic growth and promoting human dignity thereby
safeguarding lives and livelihoods. This Strategic Development Area, therefore, will
focus on strengthening the policy and institutional framework for good governance
as well as enhancing the rule of law, human rights and constitutionalism.
10.2 CURRENT STATUS
258. The country has implemented various governance reforms. In an effort to

improve access to justice by the poor and vulnerable in society, the first-ever National
Legal Aid Policy was developed in 2018. Following the launch, 8,756 clients were
assisted with legal services in 2020 compared to 5,177 clients in 2017. Zambia’s Rule of
Law Index also improved from -0.25 in 2016 to 0.47 in 2020 surpassing the planned
7NDP end target of 0.25. Notwithstanding these improvements, speedy dispensation
of justice remains a challenge due to the inadequate number of qualified and
practising lawyers. The ratio of judicial officers to population remained unfavourable,
especially at the High Court level where on average, one judge dealt with about 264
cases in 2019. Further, inadequate numbers and types of fast-track courts contributed
to the build-up of a backlog of cases. In 2021, the holding capacity of Zambia
Correctional Facilities which stands at 10,600 held 21,400 prisoners. Additionally, the
National Prosecution Authority (NPA) only decentralised to 64 out of 116 districts since
2017.
259. To enhance transparency and accountability in the utilisation of public

resources, the Public Finance Management Act No. 1 of 2018, the National Planning
and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020 and the Public Procurement Act No. 8 of 2020 were
enacted. Among other objectives, the three pieces of legislation will strengthen public
financial management, adherence to procurement guidelines as well as linking the
planning and budgeting processes. The country also introduced several measures,
including sensitisation and advocacy campaigns for public finance management.
260. Further, Government accelerated the implementation of the e-government

reform to make government processes more transparent and enhance
accountability in the Public Service Delivery. Further, the Statistics Act No. 13 of 2018
was enacted to set the basis for the strengthening of national data and information
systems and the restructuring of the national statistics authority. The country’s statistical
capacity index improved to from to 62.5 in 2020 from 52 in 2017 against the 7NDP
target of 60.12.
12 World Bank.org/indicator/IQ.SCI.OVRL
68
261. Though progress was recorded in some areas of governance, the Corruption
Perception Index for Zambia dropped to 33/100 in 2021 from 38/100 in 2016. The
institutions charged with ensuring transparency and accountability are mostly
centralised, leading to low accessibility by the majority of the citizens. Other
challenges relate to low empowerment of citizens to hold public officers
accountable, inefficiencies in the delivery of public service, ineffective grievance
resolution mechanisms. These challenges are breeding ground for corruption Further,
public infrastructure and equipment for the delivery of public services are poorly
maintained, leading to low quality of public services.
262. The country continues to record low participation of women, youth and
persons with disabilities in democratic processes and decision making. As of August
2021, the proportion of women in Parliament reduced from 18.1 percent in 2016 to
12.8 percent in 2021. Youth constitute 5 percent of the Members of Parliament.
Mayoral and Council Chairpersons were at 12.9 percent and Councillors at 7.6
percent in 2021, respectively. Further, in the education system, progress has been
made to attain gender parity in primary education and 1.03 in 2020. However, gender
parity at secondary school level is yet to be attained as it stood at 0.94 in 2020.
263. To promote constitutionalism, the Constitution of Zambia was amended in 2016

to enhance human rights and strengthen governance institutions. Further, to fully
operationalise the enhanced provisions, subsidiary legislations will continue to be
enacted. To achieve a constitution that reflects the people’s aspirations, further
revisions to the Constitution will be undertaken through a consultative process.
10.3 CONSTRAINTS
264. The realisation of a good governance environment has largely been

constrained by the slow pace of implementation of the key reforms. These include
performance management, e-government, decentralisation, public finance
management and judicial reforms. Additionally, inadequate capacity of
governance and investigative agencies to investigate and prosecute corruption and
related crimes such as financial and economic offences have inhibited the creation
of a good governance environment. There is low enforcement of recommendations
from the legislature and other oversight institutions.
265. Another constraint is the inadequate knowledge among citizens on the existing
platforms to engage elected representatives, governance and investigative
agencies. Interest groups and citizens have not effectively held their leaders
accountable. Other constraints include inadequate infrastructure and limited
utilisation of ICT solutions thereby affecting the efficient delivery of services.
10.4 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 1: IMPROVED POLICY AND GOVERNANCE

ENVIRONMENT
266. During the Plan period, Government will ensure that a conducive and stable
policy and legislative environment is put in place. This will enhance certainty and instil
confidence among citizens, businesses and investors. To achieve this, Government will
continue to strengthen and establish inclusive consultative processes and undertake
69
reforms that will improve the interactions of the citizens, the private sector, civil society
and the public sector.
10.4.1. Strategy 1: Decentralise Public Service Delivery systems
267. During the Plan period, Government will focus on devolving sector functions to
local authorities to enhance public service delivery at lower levels of governance. This
is in line with the Decentralisation Policy and its implementation framework. It is
envisaged that the Local Authorities will play a major role in service delivery at the
district level and will coordinate development at that level.
268. Further, local government reforms will be implemented to enhance financial

management, revenue generation and investment in capacity enhancement for
effective delivery of socio-economic development. Fiscal mapping and
decentralisation of resources to the sub-national levels through the effective
implementation of the decentralisation policy will be undertaken.
269. The capacity of communities will be strengthened to manage and implement

programmes with high social and economic impact under the Constituency
Development Fund. This will improve the participation of lower level governance
structures in the identification of local priority projects, beneficiaries of empowerment
and bursary support programmes. The local Planning process will also be
strengthened anchored on the full operationalisation of Planning and Budgeting Act
No.1 of 2020 and the Urban and Regional Planning Act. No. 3 of 2015.
270. The following programmes will be implemented to decentralise public service

delivery systems:
a) Sector devolution
b) Human Resource Management Reforms
c) Fiscal Decentralisation
d) Policy and legal reforms
e) Capacity development
10.4.2. Strategy 2: Strengthen National Data and Information Systems
271. During the Plan period, Government will fully operationalise the Statistics Act
No. 13 of 2018 for an integrated national statistical system to increase the coverage,
and use of quality updated data as well as statistics for national development. Further,
efforts will be placed on improving the coverage of civil and vital registration systems
as well as improving administrative data systems. Hence, the decentralisation of the
civil and vital registration system to increase coverage for the registration of vital
events and comply with the human rights of citizens including operationalisation of
the Integrated National Registration Information System (INRIS). The INRIS will lead to
enhanced security systems through identification of citizens, optimisation of various
public services such as strengthened tax, social services and promotion health
insurance administration.
272. The following programmes will be implemented to strengthen national data

and information systems:
a) Integrated management information systems development;
b) Infrastructure for statistics and spatial data development;
70
c) National statistical reforms and capacity development
d) Integrated National Registration Information System
10.4.3. Strategy 3: Strengthen transparency and accountability mechanisms
273. In the 8NDP period, Government will scale up interventions to enhance

transparency and accountability. To this effect, governance and investigative
institutions such as the Office of the Auditor General and Anti-Corruption Commission
will be capacitated to improve transparency and accountability. To enhance
accessibility, the Office of the Public Protector will be decentralised to provincial
centres. This will be done to step up enforcement mechanisms for upholding principles
of integrity among those charged with the responsibility to manage public resources
and provide public services. This is envisaged to increase investor and citizen
confidence that will drive economic transformation and job creation.
274. Government will strengthen internal control systems and operations of the audit
committees to enhance transparency. Further, Government will enhance access to
public information by undertaking to media reforms. The oversight role of the
legislature will also be enhanced to promote transparency and accountability,
including public finance management.
275. To strengthen transparency and accountability mechanisms the following

a) Public finance management reforms

b) Public procurement management
c) Awareness and sensitisation
d) Audit and Risk Oversight
e) Parliamentary Reforms
f) Media Reforms
10.4.4. Strategy 4: Strengthen electoral processes and systems
276. Electoral reforms will be undertaken to ensure that the electoral process is
undertaken in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The process will also be
enhanced to curtail political violence and eliminate opportunities of malpractice
during elections. This will help create a level playing field for participation in the
electoral process by all citizens, especially the marginalised and under-represented
sections of society such as women, youths and persons with disabilities.
277. To strengthen electoral process and systems, the following programmes will be
implemented:
a) Constitutional reforms
b) Electoral reforms
c) Parliamentary Reforms
10.4.5. Strategy 5: Strengthen public service performance management systems
278. The public service will, during the Plan period, strengthen systems to promote
effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery of public goods and services to support
economic transformation. This will be done through leveraging on ICTs for accessing
71
government services, setting policies, business regulations and following laid down
procedures. Further, Government will promote professionalism, meritocracy,
performance-accountability among public officers and accountability of institutions
in delivering services to the citizens as well as improving leadership in the public
service. The Government will also promote the maintenance of public infrastructure
and equipment to enhance public service provision for social and economic
development. Government shall take advantage of the Public-Private Partnerships
Initiatives in the development, maintenance and management of public
infrastructure.
279. To strengthen public service performance management systems, the following

a) Electronic Government
b) Performance Management Systems
c) Maintenance of Public infrastructure
10.4.6. Strategy 6: Strengthen Land Management and Administration
280. During the Plan period, land reforms will be undertaken to fully operationalise
the Land Policy. A review of various statutes relating to land management systems will
be undertaken to ensure enhanced access to land. This will contribute to increased
productivity among the citizenry and equity in the access to productive resources.
Further, Government will decentralise land registration to Provincial and District
centres and digitise the process of issuance of certificates of land title to ensure
efficient land administration.
281. The following programmes will be implemented to strengthen land

management and administration
a) National Land titling programme

b) Land management and Administration
c) Land information management system development

Strategy Programme
1. Decentralise Public a) Sector devolution
Service Delivery systems b) Human Resource Management Reforms
c) Fiscal Decentralisation
d) Policy and legal reforms
e) Capacity development
2. Strengthen National a) Integrated management information systems

Data and Information development;
Systems b) Infrastructure for statistics and spatial data
development;
c) National statistical reforms and capacity
development
d) Integrated National Registration Information
System
72
3. Strengthen a) Public finance management reforms
transparency and b) Public procurement management
accountability c) Awareness and sensitisation
mechanisms d) Audit and Risk Oversight
e) Parliamentary Reforms
f) Media Reforms
4. Strengthen electoral a) Constitutional reforms

processes and systems b) Electoral reforms
c) Parliamentary Reforms
5. Strengthen public a) Electronic Government

service performance b) Performance Management Systems
management systems c) Maintenance of Public infrastructure
6. Strengthen Land a) National Land titling programme

Management and b) Land management and Administration
Administration c) Land information management system
development
10.5 DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 2: IMPROVED RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS AND

CONSTITUTIONALISM
282. To achieve improved rule of law, human rights, constitutionalism, Government

will strengthen the criminal justice system and enhance the rule of law. This will be
attained through the review of the Constitution, enhancing access to justice,
promoting human rights, infrastructure development, enhancing legal aid systems,
human and technical capacity development and modernisation of Judicial systems.
10.5.1. Strengthen the criminal and justice system and enhance rule of law
283. During the plan period, effort will be made to progressively decentralise the
judicial system in order to enhance speedy dispensation of Justice. Further, reforms to
review and decentralise the Parole framework will be undertaken. In addition, the
juvenile justice framework will be reviewed and a system of rehabilitation of drug-
related offenders strengthened. Legal reforms, such as the review Public Order Act
and Penal Code, will be undertaken to ensure law and order. This will lead to a safe
and stable environment and ultimately spur investments in the country.
284. To strengthen the criminal justice system, the following programmes will be
implemented:
a) Crime Prevention, Detection and Prosecution

b) Infrastructure Development
c) Human resource development
d) Circuit courts
e) Fast track courts
f) Judicial and security system automation
73
g) Parole framework Decentralisation
h) Constitutional Reforms
i) Human Rights Protection and Promotion

Strategy Programme
1. Strengthen the a) Crime Prevention, Detection and Prosecution
criminal and justice b) Infrastructure Development
system c) Human resource development
d) Circuit courts
e) Fast track courts
f) Judicial and security system automation
g) Parole framework Decentralisation
h) Constitutional Reforms
i) Human Rights Protection and Promotion
74
PART V: MANAGEMENT OF THE
PLAN
75
11. IMPLEMENTATION AND
COORDINATION FRAMEWORK
1.1. INTRODUCTION
285. The realisation of the 8NDP development outcomes depends on a comprehensive

coordination framework that provides guidance in the implementation of the Plan. The
coordination and implementation mechanisms will be government-led but with the full
participation of various non-state actors at national and sub-national levels.
286. The coordination of the implementation of the Plan will be undertaken through legally
recognized structures and institutional arrangements provided for under the National Planning
and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020. The National Development Coordinating Committee
(NDCC), Cluster Advisory Groups (CAGs), Provincial Development Coordinating Committees
(PDCCs) and District Development Coordinating Committees (DDCCs) will coordinate and
provide oversight in the implementation of the plan respectively. In addition, the Ward
Development Committees (WDCs) will coordinate the implementation of development
interventions at the Ward level. These structures will ensure broad stakeholder participation in
development, transparency in development planning and budgeting as well as
accountability for development results.
287. The implementation of the plan will be undertaken using an integrated multi-sectorial
approach which entails the clustering of agencies from various sectors to jointly plan, budget,
implement and monitor interventions that will lead to the attainment of identified strategic
national development results. National, provincial and district levels will implement the Plan
based on the configuration of institutions making up a particular NDP implementation Cluster
and undertaking various programmes, projects and activities with specific deliverables to be
generated semi-annual, annually, and by the end of the Plan period.
288. MPSAs and non-state institutions assigned to implement a particular programme,

project or activity in the 8NDP will be required to ensure that they effectively plan, budget,
implement and monitor performance of that particular intervention. Interventions that require
joint effort by various development actors will be expected to be implemented in a
coordinated manner with a lead institution working together with relevant actors to ensure
effective planning, budgeting and implementation.
289. The Ministry responsible for national planning will provide guidelines for effective
coordination and implementation of the 8NDP interventions. This will be complemented by
provision of technical support to ensure that the development coordination and
implementation mechanisms are effective and able to discharge the assigned functions and
responsibilities. Provinces and Districts will be required to develop Implementation Plans while
Ministries, Local Authorities and Spending Agencies will be required to be develop Institutional
Strategic and implementation Plans stipulating the programmes and activities to be
implemented and outputs to be generated in line with resource outlays provided for in the
Output Based Budgeting (OBB). This should, in turn, be in line with the 8NDP outputs and will
entrench strong linkages between the 8NDP and the national budget.
290. The Ministry responsible for Finance will ensure budget execution by tracking
implementation of budgets and timely provision of funds to ensure that development
interventions are well financed. Further, a system of accounting for development results will be
elaborated in the Implementation Plan of the 8NDP. This will be the basis for tracking progress
on the implementation of the Plan as well as guiding the participation of state, non-state actors
and the general citizenry in line with the National Planning and Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020.
76
1.2. LESSONS LEARNT IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 7NDP
1.2.1. The integrated multi-sectoral approach enhances the implementation of
the Plan
291. During the implementation of the 7NDP, it was noted that institutions continued to work
in silos hence impacting negatively on the effective implementation of the Plan. Going
forward, Government will strengthen coordination mechanisms and promote institutions to
jointly address a particular development outcome through integrated implementation plans.
Government will require collaborative budgeting among institutions in the same cluster
implementing common programmes. Further, vertical and horizontal synergies between the
various implementing institutions within and across the Clusters and Government will be
promoted. The relationships among a host of institutions will be clearly mapped and
developed in a manner that promotes reinforcement of outcomes by all players.
1.2.2. Enhanced participation can be achieved through operationalisation of

Ward Development Committees
292. During the implementation of the 7NDP, it was observed that Ward Development
Committees (WDCs) that were meant to operationalise key components of the Plan were not
fully operational. Further, PDCCs and DDCCs did not hold regular meetings due to resource
constraints, inadequate numbers of planners at sub-national level and the onset of the COVID-
19 pandemic during the Plan period, among others. Therefore, the Government will continue
to undertake legal reforms to address the bottlenecks that can impede successful
coordination and implementation of NDPs. Further, programmes will be implemented to
strengthen capacities of the WDCs, planners and other stakeholders in the coordination and
implementation of NDPs. ICTs and other innovations will be leveraged to enhance
coordination and implementation of the Plan.
1.3.COORDINATION MECHANISM
293. Coordination of the 8NDP will be at five main levels that recognise decentralised
planning processes, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. This is as elaborated below:
1.3.1. National level coordination and implementation arrangements
294. The NDCC will continue to be the apex advisory body to the Cabinet on matters
relating to national development plans and budgets. National level coordination will
progressively work towards enhancing synergies among stakeholders for efficient and
effective implementation of programmes at all levels. This national level coordination will
galvanise participation of state and non-state institutions in meeting targets for agreed upon
national indicators.
1.3.2. Sectoral level coordination and implementation
295. At the sector level, Cluster Advisory Groups (CAGs) will ensure that specific activities,
projects, and programmes are implemented by agencies within that cluster while those not
directly implementing offer their technical input or policy guidance or enabling environment
for implementation of interventions under the clusters oversight. This level will bring together all
sectors implementing programmes under a particular development objective and outcome
area. Emphasis at this level will be placed on strengthening intra- and inter-sectoral integration
to an extent that sectors will be grouped together to address a common strategic area of
development. Sectors will be required to jointly undertake programming and sequencing of
projects and activities, within and among themselves. Ultimately sectors will have to plan
jointly, share financing plans and interface on programme implementation and monitoring
and evaluation.
77
1.3.3. Provincial level coordination and implementation
296. PDCCs will ensure that provinces are working progressively towards meeting the targets
set in the national development plans. This will be done with a view to ensuring that targets
and outcomes in the provincial implementation plans are oriented towards meeting the
benchmarks that are stipulated in the Plan. While providing oversight to districts, the Provincial
Administration will coordinate the implementation of programmes at provincial level as well as
ensure that non-state actors operating in the province collaborate with Government
institutions and agencies by sharing information on the development interventions being
implemented.
297. Provincial Planning Units will continue to be secretariat to the PDCCs as well as provide
technical backstopping to the districts. Inter-provincial collaboration will continue to be
encouraged for programmes that will span across provincial boundaries to build on inter-
provincial comparative advantages.
1.3.4. District level coordination and implementation
298. DDCCs will ensure that non-state actors operating in the district collaborate with
government institutions and agencies by joint-planning implementation and monitoring of
district interventions. The collaboration will also involve the sharing of information on the
development interventions being implemented. This will be done with a view to deal with,
among others, district-specific development challenges.
299. The local authorities will continue to be the Secretariat to the DDCC. The districts will
design their own implementation plans that are linked to the provincial and national objectives
and ensure that district plans and budgets are adhered to and track the generation of
development outputs by institutions. Government will ensure that the sub-national structures
have adequate capacities to undertake the implementation of development interventions.
1.3.5. Local Authorities
300. The local authorities will coordinate implementation of development at the ward level
and will devise mechanisms to monitor the implementation of the Plan at district level.
1.3.6. Ward Development Committees
301. Ward Development Committees are the lowest coordination body which will directly
interface the communities with development implementation processes. To promote the
participation of citizens in development at the local level, WDCs will be fully operationalised in
accordance with the Local Government Act no. 2 of 2019. To this end, the capacities of these
committees will be enhanced to allow for effective coordination and implementation of
development programme outputs under various strategic development areas of the Plan
78
Figure 17: Overall Institutional Arrangements for Coordination
1.4.ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF VARIOUS INSTITUTIONS IN THE MANAGEMENT

OF THE PLAN
302. The 8NDP will be managed using a results-based approach with emphasis on
accountability and timeliness on the delivery of results. The implementation of the plan will
allow for flexibility and innovation in attaining the desired outcomes.
303. The following institutions will play key roles in ensuring effective implementation and
management of the Plan in line with the set objectives and targets:
1.4.1. Parliament
304. Parliament will approve the Plan and play an oversight role to ensure that the
Government delivers on its mandate and that the process of achievement of development
outcomes is based on principles of accountability, transparency and value for money.
79
1.4.2. Cabinet
305. The Cabinet will provide leadership and policy direction so that development
outcomes contained in the Plan are met on time. It will facilitate a supportive political and
socio-economic environment.
1.4.3. Cabinet Office
306. Cabinet Office will facilitate the provision of policy guidance and ensure optimal
operational capacity of the public sector by ensuring; policy consistency and coherence,
efficient implementation of public sector reforms and implementation of Cabinet Decisions.
Cabinet office will also ensure effective human resource management for continuity in public
sector/ government operations, optimal staffing levels in government institutions as well as
enforcement of performance-based management across government for efficient and
effective public service delivery. Additionally, Cabinet Office will also facilitate the cascading
of the 8NDP into institutional strategic implementation plans.
1.4.4. Ministry responsible for Finance and National Planning
307. The Ministry responsible for Finance and National Planning will coordinate financing of
the Plan. To this end, the Ministry will facilitate resource mobilisation for various Plan
interventions in order to assure implementation. It will coordinate the formulation of annual
and medium-term budgets as well as ensure efficient execution of the budget. In so doing,
the Ministry will ensure alignment of budgets to the national development plan. (Review and
harmonise this with what is stated above on the coordination framework).
308. The Ministry will also provide technical oversight on the design, implementation,
monitoring and reporting of national development interventions and have technical oversight
on 8NDP budget execution. This will involve coordinating all advisory bodies and supporting
implementation, monitoring and evaluation processes of the Plan. Further, the Ministry will
coordinate the appraisal of public projects and investments to ensure value for money.
1.4.5. Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development
309. The Ministry responsible for local government will be responsible for coordinating the
development of ward development plans, Integrated District Plans and Implementation Plans
to actualise the aspirations of the Vision 2030.
1.4.6. Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies
310. Sector ministries, statutory bodies and parastatals will prepare institutional strategic
plans supportive of the 8NDP. In the same vein, provinces and districts will formulate
implementation plans aligned to the 8NDP targets. MPSAs will coordinate implementation of
8NDP interventions within their respective mandates and advisory bodies.
1.4.7. Private Sector
311. The Private Sector will continue to be key engine of economic growth. It will contribute
to productivity gains, job creation, strengthening of skills and application of technological
advances. Its performance will promote the actualisation of the 8NDP objectives. To this end,
the Private Sector will provide policy advice to Government on issues that directly impact on
the cost of doing business. Government will, therefore, promote regular dialogue with the
Private Sector.
80
1.4.8. Civil Society Organisations
312. Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) will continue to provide support in the
implementation of the 8NDP in all strategic development areas. They will also undertake
advocacy and provide checks and balances in public governance issues among others. CSOs
will also complement Government efforts in community and social development issues such
as poverty, gender equality, youth and the underprivileged in society among others.
Government will therefore promote dialogue with CSOs with a view to strengthening
collaboration.
1.4.9. Cooperating Partners
313. Cooperating Partners (CPs) will support the implementation of 8NDP interventions
through different financing mechanisms and technical assistance. CPs will collaborate with
Government to foster harmonisation of their programme, project and budget support to the
Country in order to avoid duplication and strengthen the effectiveness of bilateral and
multilateral technical cooperation. Government will promote engagement with CPs using
various dialogue platforms including the High-Level Policy Dialogue Forum.
81
PART VI: FINANCING OF THE PLAN
82
12. FINANCING THE 8NDP
12.1. OVERVIEW
314. Financing of the 8NDP will be done through traditional and non-traditional sources of
finance. Traditional sources will include domestic revenue, grants, donations and concessional
loans in order to stabilise the economy, achieve full economic recovery and restore economic
growth. Government will therefore desist from engaging international capital markets and
focus on alternative low-cost financing mechanisms including PPPs and Impact Capital. Non-
traditional sources of finance will include selected alternative sources that will have low or no
interest payments or guarantee commitments from government. In the quest to manage
public spending and ensure that all reforms are finalised, some programmes and projects in
the Plan will not be financed from the national budget but will engage the private sector and
other development partners. (make this section concise speaking to all the financing sources
and detail them in the section below including projections of what will come from the private
sector)
12.2. TRADITIONAL SOURCES OF FINANCE
12.2.1. Domestic Revenues (Tax & Non – Tax Revenues)
315. The Government will continue putting in place measures that will enhance domestic
revenue mobilisations and progressively increase its contribution to the overall resource
envelope. This will be achieved among other things through the streamlining the tax system
and creating a stable and predictable tax environment. Further, Government will leverage on
ICT platforms in order to curb revenue leakages, increase compliance and enhance non-tax
revenue collections. Domestic Revenues are projected to contribute at least K669.6 billion over
the plan period.
12.2.2. External Grants
316. The Government will continue to pursue strong working relations with various bilateral
and multilateral cooperating partners in order to increase collaboration in achieving common
objectives and bridge the financing gap through the financial support given in the form of
grants. The support from cooperating partners is projected at K10.1 billion or an average of
K2.0 billion over the Plan period.
12.2.3. Domestic and External Financing
317. The Government aims at progressively reducing the fiscal deficits to sustainable levels
over the Plan period. This will be done by curtailing further accumulation of debt, by not
contracting non-concessional loans except in instances of refinancing. In line with the fiscal
consolidation objective, domestic borrowing is estimated to average 4.0 percent of GDP while
external financing, including project loans, is planned to average 2.5 percent of GDP by the
end 2026.
12.2.4. Resource Envelope
318. In the Plan period, resources from domestic revenues, borrowing and grants are
estimated at K1.0 trillion, an average of K205.2 billion annually.
83
Table 25: Estimate of Resources, 2022-2026
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL AVERAGE
K’000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000
A.
Available
172,987,078 177,119,289 212,266,919 223,145,653 240,575,317 1,026,094,256 205,218,851
Resources
1. Revenue
and Grants 100,681,126 117,488,105 135,513,180 153,555,861 172,519,130 679,757,402 135,951,480
O/w Total
Revenue 98,859,158 115,595,080 133,531,183 151,471,392 170,187,791 669,644,604 133,928,921
Grants
1,821,968 1,893,025 1,981,997 2,084,469 2,331,340 10,112,799 2,022,560
2.
Financing 72,305,952 59,631,184 76,753,738 69,589,792 68,056,187 346,336,853 69,267,371
O/w
Domestic 24,458,941 29,819,853 34,344,657 24,318,802 22,536,283 135,478,536 27,095,707
Programme
Loans 39,347,310 21,225,340 34,878,280 34,153,824 33,086,093 162,690,847 32,538,169
Project
Loans 8,499,700 8,585,991 7,530,801 11,117,166 12,433,811 48,167,469 9,633,494
12.2.5. Expenditure
319. Over the Plan period, Government is expected to accrue both constitutional and
statutory expenditures, which are non-discretionary and include payments towards debt
servicing and salaries. Of the total domestic revenues to be accrued, a total of K669.6 billion
will be raised, and K735.7 billion will be utilised for non-discretionary expenditures. Therefore,
K…. will be spent on the 8NDP. The Table below shows the distribution of expenditure on non-
discretionary items during the Plan period. (There is need to relook at the figures in table 55
and focus on expenditure for programmes outlined in the Plan)
Table 26: Central Government Non-Discretionary Expenditure, 2022-2026

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL AVERAGE
K’000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000 K'000
B.
Constitutional,
Statutory and
154,036,130 118,557,020 145,682,737 153,643,893 163,747,848 735,667,628 147,133,526
Other
Expenditures
1. Personal
Emoluments 37,811,607 48,064,783 55,138,142 57,114,442 62,946,169 262,401,007 52,480,201
o/w net
recruitment 3,282,532 1,801,190 1,431,580 1,360,001 1,288,422 9,163,724 1,832,745
wage
adjustment 5,303,453 5,563,059 4,378,045 3,094,893 3,249,637 21,589,087 4,317,817
2. Debt
Payments 78,680,142 34,723,895 53,329,004 43,536,403 41,975,895 252,245,340 50,449,068
O/w Interest
Payments 37,818,778 7,474,497 7,741,510 8,128,585 8,535,015 69,698,385 13,939,677
O/w Domestic
27,364,646 34,007,697 40,129,082 48,637,603 54,397,924 204,536,951 40,907,390
External
10,454,133 9,209,174 7,574,979 6,319,575 5,162,716 38,720,576 7,744,115
Amortisation
40,861,363 27,249,398 45,587,494 35,407,818 33,440,880 182,546,954 36,509,391
3. Grants
12,915,583 13,185,350 14,431,659 19,238,551 21,073,624 80,394,767 16,078,953
4. Pension
Funds 2,067,042 2,130,293 2,254,346 3,474,115 3,885,566 13,811,361 2,762,272
6. Foreign
Financed
10,321,668 10,479,016 9,512,798 13,201,635 14,765,151 58,280,268 11,656,054
Expenditure
5. Earmarked
Expenditures 5,017,417 5,433,683 6,396,788 10,130,518 11,330,310 38,308,717 7,661,743
O/w Roads
3,509,896 3,726,762 3,978,935 5,558,583 6,216,906 22,991,082 4,598,216
Foreign
Financed - -
84
Rural
Electrification
362,209 415,850 475,887 680,926 761,571 2,696,443 539,289
Levy
Contingency
185,313 211,071 231,967 694,823 777,113 2,100,286 420,057
FRA
960,000 1,080,000 1,710,000 3,196,185 3,574,721 10,520,906 2,104,181
6. Subsidies
7,222,670 4,540,000 4,620,000 6,948,229 7,771,132 31,102,031 6,220,406
O/w FISP
5,372,670 4,540,000 4,620,000 6,948,229 7,771,132 29,252,031 5,850,406
Fuel Arrears
1,850,000 - - - - 1,850,000 370,000
Electricity
- - - - - - -
C.
Discretionary
18,950,947 58,562,269 66,584,182 69,501,760 76,827,469 290,850,763 58,170,153
Budget
12.3. ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FINANCE FOR THE PLAN
320. To complement the traditional sources of finance for the 8NDP, Government will
promote resource mobilisation from non-traditional sources whose selection is based on
practicality and ease of implementation. The alternative sources that Government will deploy
are summarised in the figure below:
Figure 18: Alternative Sources of finance
Source: Constructed
12.3.1. No Cost Finance
321. Government will promote the sourcing and use of finance which will have no cost
implication to the Treasury. The finance will be operationalised as shown in table 30.
85
Table 27: No cost Finance.
NO FINANCE SOURCE DESCRIPTION OPERATIONAL MECHANISM
Government will set-up a
formal ‘finance tank as
postulated in the Addis
Ababa Action Agenda for
Generous donation of money or
development financing
material to government
1 Philanthropy framework to finance the
programmes and projects by
Agenda 2030 and Agenda
individuals
2063. These are made up of
individuals with intent to
donate towards
development causes
Government will provide an
Capital to be provided to start-up enabling environment for
2 Venture Capital companies and businesses from venture capital financing
individual investors that will allow SMEs to
access financing.
Government will promote
the use of crowdfunding as
Funds provided by a crowd to
a source of finance for
3 Crowdfunding support entrepreneurial activities
economically viable
as well as social programmes
programmes and projects in
the social sectors.
Government will establish a
mechanism to allow
parastatals, state owned
enterprises and quasi
Funds provided by Philanthropists
government institutions to
4 Endowment Fund for development from interest
utilise interest payment on
accruals
banked resources from
endowment fund providers
in order to finance projects
and programmes.
Government will prioritise
Grants provided by various and support the
Green Financing financial institutions and non- development of bankable
5
Grants finance for green and clean project proposals aimed at
projects accessing grants for green
projects across sectors.
Angel investors will be
attracted to invest in
Capital provided to development
indebted parastatals/state
6 Angel Investment programmes in exchange for
owned enterprises in
convertible debt
exchange for convertible
debt
12.3.2. Low-Cost Finance
322. The low-cost financing options to be pursued are summarised in table 31.
86
Table 28: Low-Cost Finance)
NO FINANCE SOURCE DESCRIPTION OPERATIONAL MECHANISM
1 Impact Investment into socially and Government will provide a
Investment environmentally impactful sectors conducive environment to
promote access to impact
investment in economic,
social and environment
sectors.
2 Green Bonds13 Investments provided to green, Capital markets will be
environmental and climate friendly strengthened to promote
programmes and projects green financing and will be
a source of funding for the
national climate change
fund which will be an
anchor for resource
mobilisation on climate
change
3 Pension Funds Investment into high return ventures Government will
using superannuation funds institutionalise and
commercialise the use of
pension funds as sources of
finance to viable
programmes and projects in
the economic and social
sectors.
4 Peer to Peer Funds provided by matching Government will
Lending (P2P), borrowers to lenders using various institutionalise and
Collective platforms and fund arrangers who commercialise the use of
Investment engage fund owners to invest in pooled funds as sources of
Schemes and various programmes and projects finance to viable
Fund Arrangers programmes and projects in
the economic sectors.
6 Crowd Funding Funds provided by a large number Government will
of individuals to support institutionalise and regulate
entrepreneurial activities as well as the use of crowdfunding as
social programmes in which a a source of finance for
return by percent investment is financially viable
provided programmes and projects,
particularly for MSMEs
7 Local Capital Finance provided through listing on Government will reposition
Market capital markets. the local capital market for
provision of affordable long-
term capital and facilitation
of innovative financial
resources for both public
and private projects and
programmes.
8 Government will address

Programme and project finance the challenges within the
PPPs
provided by private investors PPP framework that limit the
uptake of PPPs.
13 A Green bond is a fixed income instrument designed to support specific climate related or environmental projects.
In the context of Zambia where we face high rates of biodiversity loss, high impacts of climate change and negative
impacts of land degradation, greening the economy is an imperative
87
12.4. INTEGRATED NATIONAL FINANCING FRAMEWORK
323. Financing the 8NDP will require policies, partnerships and an enabling environment that
effectively mobilizes and uses public finance and promotes growth in impactful private
finance.
324. Considering the various alternative financing options that have been identified aimed
at supporting National Development Plans, it is imperative that a robust integrated Financing
Framework to guide the financing of the Plan is developed. To this end, Government will
develop an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) that will provide guidance on
access to a full range of potential sources of financing options. The INFF will outline a strategic
approach for government and its partners to mobilize and effectively invest these flows in
actualizing the objectives of the 8NDP. A Development Finance Assessment (DFA) will be
conducted to inform the development of the financing framework. (Are there plans to setup
this framework and who will do it?)
12.5. THE REFORMS
325. The following are some of the notable reforms to be considered during the plan period:
(a) Conduct a Development Finance Assessment for Zambia aimed at financing national
development plans. This will result in the formulation of the Coordination and
Accountability Financing Framework of the 8NDP and subsequent national plans.
(b) Strengthen domestic reforms of mobilizing public finances such as:
(c) Address Non-Compliance – Empower ZRA with enforcement, Expanding the
withholding tax regime
(d) link compliance to some services such as re-licensing of traders;
(e) Improved taxpayer services and education – Making it easier for Zambians outside tax
system to become registered;
(f) Data access and improve the infrastructure of ZRA;
(g) Integrate ZRA and GRZ system;
(h) Analyse our current tax policies – Are there any deficiencies that could be a deterrent
to government striking a balance between growing the economy, raising resources
and the welfare of our people;
(i) Strengthen ICT use in revenue collection in all sectors in local authorities, traffic in order
to seal all leakages in the revenue generation and collection sectors.
(j) Government will strengthen fora where it interacts with private sector to facilitate
private sector investment. Reduce overheads incurred before investments e.g. by
undertaking feasibility studies on behalf of the private sector at no cost, tax incentives.
(k) Fiscal/monetary policy reforms on government securities- address the high interest rate
= crowding out effect [refer to Malaysia model where specific treasury requirements
are pinned to capital markets
(l) SEC - Change funding model and capacitate apex regulator
(m) NAPSA – Formalize investment guidelines to facilitate transparent capital formation for
SMEs, unlisted ventures [refer Namibia initiatives
(n) Green bonds – see proposed tax reforms
(o) CISs/VCs & PEs – see proposed tax reforms and actualization of NAPSA investment
guidelines
(p) Legal reforms – exempt the financial markets from Business Regulatory Act (BRA)
88
13. PRECONDITIONS,
ASSUMPTIONS AND RISK
MANAGEMENT
13.1. OVERVIEW
326. The success of the 8NDP is underpinned by certain preconditions and assumptions.
Additionally, based on lessons learned in the implementation of previous National
Development Plans, the Government has considered the potential risks and how they will be
managed to ensure successful implementation of this Plan.
327. During the implementation of the 8NDP, the Government, working with internal and
external stakeholders, will endeavour to put in place the preconditions, monitor assumptions
and make efforts to manage them effectively. The country will also ensure that potential risks
are effectively managed and closely monitored. This chapter presents preconditions,
assumptions and the need for risk management in the public sector.
13.2. PRECONDITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS
328. The following are the preconditions and assumptions upon which the success of the
8NDP is contingent.
13.2.1. Preconditions
Political will and Commitment
329. Political will and commitment shall be required in the positioning of the Plan, by policy
makers, as the blueprint to guide all development efforts during its implementation period. It is
also imperative that commitments and measures to restore macroeconomic stability, debt
sustainability and growth are fully implemented to buttress the reform and recovery
interventions outlined in the Plan.
330. Policy makers should, in turn, place a demand on, and enforce provisions in the Public
Finance Management Act (PFMA) No.1of 2018, the National Planning and Budgeting Act No.
1 of 2020 and other pieces of legislation.
331. Policy makers will be committed to reviewing policies and laws that impede private
sector participation in order to enhance the contribution of the private sector to development.
Stabilisation of the macroeconomic fundamentals
332. Government should be committed in stabilising the macroeconomic fundamentals in

order to lay a supportive environment for the implementation of the Plan without which the
measures outlined in this Plan will remain futile. This will require political leadership as well as
clear monitoring, coordination among the various players and follow-up arrangements.
Effective management of the COVID-19 pandemic
333. The success of the Plan will require the effective management of the COVID-19
pandemic in terms of containing its spread and mitigating its socio-economic effects. The
Government, working with partners should, therefore, devise and implement measures to
manage the pandemic in order to keep the economy running.
89
Enhanced Capacity to Respond to catastrophic events
334. Government should strengthen internal systems to respond to disasters and

catastrophic events that may occur during the 8NDP period. This is critical in order to ensure
that the gains made are not eroded.
Effective accountability frameworks
335. One of the major challenges that have affected implementation of previous National
Development Plans has been systemic weaknesses in the implementation and accountability
frameworks. For the 8NDP period, the Government should strengthen implementation and
accountability frameworks at all levels riding on the provisions of the Public Finance
Management Act No.1of 2018 and the National Planning and Budgeting Act No.1 of 2020.
A value-centred citizenry
336. A societal issue that continues to affect implementation of development interventions

is the value system not only among implementers of development programmes but also
beneficiaries. The Government, working with all stakeholders, should continue promoting the
national values and principles through, among others, behavioural and cultural resetting to
promote a value-centred citizenry.
Climate change management
337. Adverse effects of climate change that have resulted in extreme weather changes
such as droughts, rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns have had a negative
impact on the economy and consequently peoples’ livelihoods. Government and its
stakeholders should implement strategies aimed at strengthening adaptation and mitigation
to climate change as well as enhance preparedness for environmental disasters so as to
enhance sustainable development.
13.2.2. Assumptions
Local and Regional economic and political stability
338. It is expected that Zambia’s continued political stability shall be cardinal for increased
investment and enhanced socio-economic development. In addition, the unique position of
the country in Southern and Central Africa as well as its lack of territorial access to the sea,
makes regional, economic and political stability important for Zambia. This is because Zambia
relies on its neighbouring countries as trade routes and partners. The economic and political
stability of Zambia’s neighbouring countries also affects the social well-being of its people.
Stakeholder support towards the implementation of the plan
339. It is anticipated that stakeholders will warm up to the programmes and projects in the
Plan and ease implementation of strategic focus areas. The Government shall, therefore,
continue to maintain good engagement mechanisms with development Cooperating
Partners, the Private Sector and Civil Society as well as leverage technical support.
Favourable commodity prices
340. It is expected that favourable commodity prices shall prevail during the Plan period. In
terms of exports, copper prices are projected to continue being favourable during the 8NDP
period, with the increased global demand for the commodity. It is anticipated that key non-
traditional exports shall also continue to enjoy favourable market prices whereas crude oil
90
prices will be favourable to enable cost effective importation of the commodity and its finished
products. All of this should in turn stimulate production and exports.
Favourable Climatic Conditions
341. It is anticipated that there will be predictable and favourable weather. Good rainfall
and predictable rain pattern will aid agricultural production due to availability of sufficient
water, which is essential for food security for both local consumption and export. Favourable
rainfall patterns will also contribute to the generation of electricity thereby ensuring stable
supply for economic activity.
Financing the Plan
342. The successful implementation of the Plan largely depends on availability of financial
resources. Financial resources will comprise domestic revenues, loans, grants and government
will continue to leverage bilateral and multilateral institutions including the private sector to
support implementation of activities and programs in the Plan. It is therefore anticipated that
the macroeconomic conditions and external policies will remain favourable to support
effective mobilisation of the resource envelope required for successful implementation of the
Plan.
13.3. Risk Management
343. The Public Sector faces several risks in the planning, budgeting and execution of
National Development Plans, programmes and projects that ultimately affects delivery of
services. A review of the implementation of the 7NDP showed that actualisation of the
strategic focus areas faced various risks emanating from internal and external factors.
344. This was compounded by various shocks that had debilitating effect on the economy
both at macro and social sector level. The realised risks affected the smooth implementation
of the 7NDP and consequently, the actualisation of the planned strategic focus areas.
345. The successful implementation of the 8NDP is anchored on the assumption that realised
downside risks can adversely impact the actualisation of the planned strategic development
areas. In recognition of the adverse impact of risks on the achievement of the National
objectives, Government underscores the importance of risk management in the actualisation
of the plan. Risk Management shall involve proactively identifying and understanding the
factors and events that may negatively impact on the actualisation of the planned strategic
development areas. It shall also entail taking the necessary steps to reduce these risks to
acceptable levels by treating, monitoring and reporting on them. Heads of institutions shall
prioritise risk management in the implementation of the Plan.
Where We are:
346. The Public Finance Management Act (PFMA) No. 1 of 2018 provides a legal framework
for risk management in the Public Service in order to ensure that risk management is integrated,
the PFMA mandates Controlling Officers to establish and maintain an effective, efficient, and
transparent system of Risk Management. Consequently, Government developed the National
Risk Management Framework (NRMF) launched in 2020 that provides guidelines on how risk
management shall be integrated within decision making processes. The National Risk
Management Framework and Guidelines provides guidance on the foundations and
organizational arrangements for designing, implementing, monitoring, reviewing and
continually improving risk management in public bodies.
91
Where We are Going:
347. In the implementation of the 8th NDP, risk management shall be integrated into
institutions’ functions, activities, and decision-making processes at strategic,
project/programme, and operational levels as a management tool to improve strategy,
planning, budgeting, program design and delivery, public procurement, contract
management, and other core business processes.
348. Public bodies shall put in place customised a Risk Management Policy (RMP), Risk
Management Implementation Plan and Risk Management Framework (RMF) that is aligned to
the National Risk Management Framework. Each institution shall document their risks in a Risk
Register which shall include information about the identified risks, their likelihood of
occurrence, potential impact, existing controls, risk ratings, and treatment plans required by
the risk owners to mitigate the identified risks.
349. The Controlling Officers and respective oversight bodies shall demonstrate leadership
and commitment to the management of risk that may affect the achievement of the 8NDP
by ensuring that risk management is integrated, resourced, implemented, monitored and
reported in each Public Body. Government shall aid the process of integrating risk
management across all public bodies through the provision of professional and technical
support throughout the process in order to ensure that risk management is fully integrated
within the public sector.
350. In the context of this Plan, it is cardinal to identify, mitigate and continually monitor key
risks that would diminish opportunities and adversely impact the actualisation of the Strategic
Development Areas of the plan.
92
13.4. Examples of Risks: -
Strategic Risks:
1. These are risks to the NDP that a country assumes in pursuit of achieving superior growth
and set development objectives. Risks falling in this category may include political risks,
financing risk, security risk, regional wars/conflicts, external factors (foreign/creditor policies,
commodity prices).
External Risks:
2. This category of risks cannot be typically reduced or avoided. External risks lie largely
outside the Government control. Government focus for this category of risks is to identify them,
assess their potential impact and figure out how best to mitigate their effects should they
occur. These include:
a. Natural disasters like, landslides, floods, earthquakes and insect infestations have
costed the economy and impacted on the lives of the people. Although these risks
are generally predictable, their impact and timing are usually not. The effect of natural
disasters is usually drastic and immediate.
b. Climate Change. Climate change has been manifested into rising temperatures, more
erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events such as floods and drought. Climate
change has the potential to reduce food production and the availability of potable
water, with consequences for migration patterns, human and financial losses negative
impacts of climate change.
c. Epidemic and Pandemics such as COVID-19. Pandemics include elements of surprise
and non-linearity. As with all complex risk events, significant underlying drivers - either
unknown or underestimated – are exacerbating immediate and prolonged impacts.
d. Market risks. The term market risk, also known as systematic risk, refers to the uncertainty
associated with any investment decision and largely affect stability of monetary policy.
The different types of market risks include interest rate risk, commodity price risk,
currency risk, country risk.
e. Macroeconomic Risks. The principal task of macroeconomic policy is to provide a
stable and enabling platform upon which firms and individuals invest, work and
consume. Macro risk can be caused by macroeconomic factors outside the control of
government. Common examples of macro risk include changes in monetary policy,
shifts in the regulatory or tax regime, and political or civil unrest.
f. Fiscal Risk. How sustainable is the fiscal position given the current macro-economic
dynamics, public debt levels, effects of COVID-19 pandemic?
93
14. MONITORING AND
EVALUATION FRAMEWORK
14.1. OVERVIEW
3. The Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Framework for the 8NDP has been formulated in
line with the National Planning and Budgeting Act No.1 of 2020 and the National Monitoring
and Evaluation Policy which provide guidance on the basis for undertaking monitoring and
evaluation of national development plans. The major driving force for M&E is the need to track
progress towards the attainment of developmental goals or target results, while generating
evidence to support informed decision making.
4. The framework also provides guidance and feedback to various stakeholders who are
expected to oversee, coordinate and implement monitoring and evaluation activities. It
includes an overarching results framework linked to long term development outcomes and
impacts and drawn from the national Vision 2030’s National Performance Framework (NPF).
The NPF articulates a series of development results to be achieved in order for the country to
attain desired long-term aspirations.
5. This M&E framework is Government-Wide and has specific roles and responsibilities for
all actors in the M&E system to contribute to the measurement of the overall 8NDP progress.
Actors in the M&E system include government, civil society, private sector, cooperating
partners, local authorities, traditional authorities, and the general citizenry.
6. The M&E Framework will be elaborated in detailed in Implementation Plans that will be
developed at National, Provincial and District levels. The Implementation Plans will outline
outputs, outcomes and Impact/Key Performance Indicators which will be used to track
progress of the 8NDP. Figure xxx shows a summary of the measurement framework or Results
framework for the 8NDP. A Data Catalogue or data dictionary with Meta data for the identified
8NDP indicators will also be articulated.
Figure 19: Diagrammatic Representation of the 8NDP Results Framework
Vision 2030 Long Term Development Results
8NDP GOAL: Return the Country’s Economy to Higher Growth
IMPACT Impact/Key Performance Indicators will be used to

Implementation Process
measure progress on the Plan’s Four Strategic Focus

Planning Process
Areas
OUTCOME Outcome Indicators will be used to measure

intermediate results of the 8NDP.
Consistent tracking of
Inputs, outputs and
outcomes will be
OUTPUTS Planned programme outputs will be tracked measure undertaken
plan implementation progress.
INPUTS Inputs such as finances required to support the

achievement of plan outputs will be outlined in annual
work plans.
94
7. To ensure effective reporting on progress, the national, provincial and district indicators
will be aligned to national outputs, outcomes, and impact indicators. Measurement of these
indicators will be done at all the levels of the results chain. Utilisation of inputs will be measured
through budget performance analysis. Output performance of 8NDP will be monitored
through tracking of programme outputs by districts, provinces and Technical Working Groups
of NDP Clusters at national level. This information will feed into quarterly and annual NDP
progress reports. In addition, spot monitoring will be periodically undertaken, and reports
produced to provide information to various stakeholders on projects’ implementation.
14.2. THE MANAGEMENT MONITORING SYSTEM
8. In line with the National M&E policy, a Management Monitoring System (MMS) has
been developed to automate 8NDP data and information management in order to achieve
efficiency in M&E data processing and performance reporting. Tracking of 8NDP outcomes as
well as performance under the regional and international frameworks will also be done
through the MMS.
9. All MPSAs and Clusters will be expected to ensure timely uploads of M&E data and
information onto the MMS and guarantee accuracy and completeness of the reports. The
Presidency, Cabinet Office and oversight institutions will have access to electronic Quarterly
Performance Reports based on information uploaded onto the MMS by various Cluster
Advisory Groups including information generated at provincial and district levels. The Ministry
responsible for Finance and National Planning will review the data and reports uploaded in
the system and provide feedback and guidance accordingly, through the established
advisory bodies. The Smart Zambia Institute being responsible for E-Government, will provide
quality assurance on the MMS to ensure system stability and integrity.
14.3. MONITORING
10. Monitoring of the 8NDP implementation will be undertaken periodically and in line with
the agreed M&E Framework. Progress will be tracked using the results framework
encompassing agreed indicators and targets cascading national, provincial, district and sub-
district levels. Project implementation will be efficiently monitored to ensure the generation of
planned outputs that feed into attainment of key development outcomes and impacts.
11. Available efficient and cost-effective ways of conducting programme and project
monitoring, will be promoted among all players in the M&E system.
14.1.1. Spot Monitoring
12. At national level, MPSAs will conduct routine spot checks of 8NDP programmes and
projects under their charge to ensure that implementation is on track and to address any
problems that may negatively affect programme/project implementation. Spot checks will
also be undertaken at Provincial and District levels. Reports from project site visits will focus on
tracking project and programme outputs and measuring performance against set
development outcomes and impacts, including learning lessons which will be used to improve
resource allocation, identification of beneficiaries and implementation of interventions to
enhance achievement of national development outcomes.
14.1.2. Reporting
13. Using data that will be uploaded onto the MMS and in accordance with the Planning
and Budgeting Act No.1 of 2020, the following 8NDP progress reports will be produced:
95
Semi-annual Reporting
14. Semi-annual Progress Reports on the performance of the 8NDP will be prepared by
Clusters and submitted to the Ministry of Finance and National Planning before presentation
to the NDCC and the Presidency. The Ministry will review and consolidate the reports from
Clusters and update the Secretary to the Cabinet.
15. The semi-annual reports will be produced in a cumulative manner. Therefore, the last
bi-annual report will be a cumulative report for a particular year and will form the basis for the
production of the annual progress report.
Annual Progress Reporting
16. The national Plan implementation will undergo an annual review to assess
implementation status and progress towards set development objectives. The last bi-annual
Progress Report of the year will provide a basis for the production of the Annual Progress
Report. The Minister Responsible for Finance and National Planning will, in line with the
provisions of the National Planning and Budgeting Act No.1 of 2020, table the Annual Report
in Parliament on or before the last Friday of May of each year. Particularly, the report will
include Budget Execution Analysis, Plan performance against set annual output targets and
also include assessment of progress on implementation of key capital investment projects.
14.2. EVALUATION
17. NDP evaluations will mostly focus on assessing performance of outcome and impact
indicators. Policy and programme reviews of specific social, economic or governance
programmes in the Plan may be evaluated in order to gather information on optimal
implementation approaches for such programmes. Further, national Plan evaluations,
including mid-term and final evaluations will be undertaken and policy recommendations
synthesised. Feedback will be provided to implementers for action, while policy makers and
the general public will be provided with information through appropriate modes and
channels.
14.2.1. Mid-Term Review
18. The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the Plan will be undertaken to assess progress made
towards meeting the achievement of Plan outcomes. Mid-Term Evaluation will mostly involve
an analysis of both Plan processes and intermediate outcomes/results. The purpose of the MTR
is to generate evidence to inform the implementation of Plan interventions in subsequent years
as well as feed into the development, strategic focus and implementation of future
development plans. Therefore, in accordance with the Planning and Budgeting Act, the
Minister responsible for National Development Planning will, lay before the National Assembly,
before or on the last Friday of May in the fourth year of implementing the 8NDP, a detailed
Mid-Term Review of the progress made over the first three years of implementation, as a basis
for the formulation of the next National Development Plan.
14.2.2. Final Evaluation
19. In line with the provisions of the National M&E policy and the National Planning and
Budgeting Act No. 1 of 2020, a final evaluation of the Plan will be undertaken in order to assess
the impact that was generated as well as ascertain the lessons that could be learnt from its
implementation. The final NDP report will be produced two years after the expiry of the 8NDP.
20. National Surveys and censuses conducted by the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats)
and other institutions under the oversight of the ZamStats will be used to generate evidence
for both direct and indirect evaluation of the Plan’s impact on the economy and population.
96
Detailed analysis of data from the National Census and Surveys will be undertaken to assess
the impact of the NDPs.
14.3. DATA CATALOGUE
21. An NDP data catalogue that will centralise all the key information (Metadata)
pertaining to the indicators that will be included in the 8NDP will be developed. The Data
Catalogue will provide easy access to information pertaining to the definitions, structure,
source of information, collection method, quality and use of the data in the Plan. Further, the
Data Catalogue will enable all practitioners and users to access and understand why the
national indicators were chosen, how they are generated, the frequency of data generation
and purpose of the information being generated. This will enforce standardised generation of
data and statistics on indicators. The data catalogue will also contribute to improved quality
of data used in NPD progress and performance reporting.
22. Additionally, the 8NDP data catalogue will present thorough explanations and
descriptions of National, Provincial and District Performance Indicator baselines and targets in
order to facilitate streamlined data and information collection, collation, analysis and
interpretation.
97
15. ANNEX 1: SAMPLE – DETAILED
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Development Focus Area: ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND JOB CREATION
Development Focus Area KPI Baseline Year of Baseline Plan Target
Development Outcome: AN INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMY

Development Outcome
Indicators Baseline Year of Baseline Plan Target
Strategy 1: PROMOTE MANUFACTURING AND VALUE ADDITION

Programme Programme Programme Baseline Baseline Plan Annual Targets
Output output Year Target 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Indicator
Value chains Efficient value
Development chain systems
with well-
coordinate
forward and
backward
linkages
Developed
98

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Republic of Zambia

EIGHTH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Hon. Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, MP

PART I: DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT........................................................................................................................... 1

2.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................... 5

4 MACROECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES................................................................................................. 32

7.1. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 42

10.1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 68

PART V: MANAGEMENT OF THE PLAN ................................................................................................................. 75

12. FINANCING THE 8NDP ............................................................................................................................ 83

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

5. Among the key interventions to accelerate the attainment of the development

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

1.1 THE DEVELOPMENT APPROACH

1.2 OUTLINE OF THE PLAN

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

2.2. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

2.2.1. Economic Growth

8.0% SNDP period

6.0% 7NDP period

4.0% Vision 2030 (T)

2.0% 7NDP (T)

0.0% National Budget (T)

2.2.2. Fiscal Performance

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

Source: Ministry of Finance

2.2.3. Monetary and Financial Sector Performance

Avg. lending interest rate (%) [left axis]

Source: BOZ Fortnightly Statistics and ZamStats National Accounts

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

2.2.4. External Sector Performance

27. The country’s merchandise exports continued to be dominated by minerals, essentially

Source: Zambia Statistics Agency

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

Copper Exports Non-Tradition Exports Gross International Reserves (RHS)

Source: Zambia Statistics Agency and Bank of Zambia

Figure 6: Zambia’s FDI Inflows Performance (2006-2020)

FDI Flows (US$' million) % of GDP

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

2.3. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

Table 1: Zambia’s Population Structure, 2010, 2015 and 2020

Total 13,092,666 15,473,905 17,885,422

Figure 7: Selected Demographic Indicators

MMR IMR U5MR TFR

2.4.1. Economic Diversification and Job Creation

2.4.1.1 Economic Diversification

35. Economic diversification has been promoted as a strategy to encourage sustainable

Figure 8: Top-3 Sector Concentration Ratio (% of total GDP)

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

Source: Zambia Statistics Agency, National Accounts Statistics

38. Other measures of economic diversification, such as export concentration and

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

Table 3: Youth Unemployment Rate, 2005 to 2020

42. The economy continued to be dominated by growing informal employment

For Internal GRZ Use only - Not for

Table 4: Formal and Informal Sector, 2008 to 2020

2.4.2. Poverty and Vulnerability Reduction

3 2019 Labour Force Survey Zambia