2) Profile On Dairy Farm

MANUFACTURING OF
DAIRY FARMING
APRIL 23, 2022

ADDIS ABEBA CITY ADMINISTRATION INVESTMENT COMMISSION
SHIBAG MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT AND EIA

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PROJECT PROFILE ON DAIRY FARMING
Table of content
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 3
1. Background information ......................................................................................................... 5
1.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 5
1.2. Brief description of product ............................................................................................. 6
1.3. Critical factors to Invest in the sectors............................................................................. 7
1.4. Project location justification ............................................................................................ 7
1.4.1. Location of Addis Ababa .......................................................................................... 7
1.4.2. Demography of Addis Ababa .................................................................................... 8
1.4.3. Economic activity of Addis Ababa ............................................................................. 8
1.5. Why is it beneficial to invest in Addis Ababa? ................................................................ 10
1.5.1. The city benefit from the investment.............................................................. 11
2. Marketing Study.................................................................................................................... 12
2.1. Market analysis summary .............................................................................................. 12
2.2. The Supply of processed milk products in Ethiopia ....................................................... 12
2.2.1. Local Processed milk and milk products Supply ..................................................... 12
2.2.2. Import ..................................................................................................................... 13
2.2.3. Imported processed Milk (Pasteurized Milk, cheese, yogurt and butter).............. 14
2.3. Processed milk products Demand Projection ................................................................ 18
2.4. Potential demand ........................................................................................................... 19
3. Engineering and technology ................................................................................................. 20
3.1. Engineering..................................................................................................................... 20
3.1.1. Land, buildings and civil works ............................................................................... 20
3.1.2. Plant layout ............................................................................................................. 20
3.2. Technology ..................................................................................................................... 23
3.2.2. Plant capacity .......................................................................................................... 25
3.2.4. Environmental and social impact assessment of the project ..................... 26
4. Organizational structure for milk processing plant .............................................................. 27
5. Financial Analysis .................................................................................................................. 28
5.1. General............................................................................................................................... 28
5.2. Fixed capital investment costs ................................................................................... 29
5.2.1. Machineries costs ................................................................................................... 30
5.3. Working capital .............................................................................................................. 31
5.4. Project Financing ............................................................................................................ 31
5.5. Production costs ............................................................................................................. 32
5.5.1. Material inputs ........................................................................................................ 32
5.5.2. Utilities .................................................................................................................... 32
5.5.3. Over heads .............................................................................................................. 33
5.5.4. Financial costs ......................................................................................................... 34
5.5.5. Depreciation............................................................................................................ 35
5.6. Project costs ................................................................................................................... 36
5.7. Break Even point (BEP) ................................................................................................... 36
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5.8. Return on investment .................................................................................................... 37

5.9. Project benefits .............................................................................................................. 37
Lists of tables
Table 1 Some of milk processing plants and their capacities in Ethiopia .................................... 13
Table 2 Volume of imported pasteurized milk from 2012 to 2021 in kg ..................................... 15
Table 3 Volume of imported cheese from 2012 to 2021 in kg ..................................................... 15
Table 4 Volume of imported yogurt from 2012 to 2021 in kg ..................................................... 16
Table 5 Volume of imported butter from 2012 to 2021 in kg ...................................................... 16
Table 6 Future forecast of import of dairy products by trend adjusted exponential smoothing
method........................................................................................................................................... 17
Table 7 Potential demand of milk products in kg ......................................................................... 19
Table 8 Estimated construction costs ............................................................................................ 21
Table 9 Land lease period in Addis Abeba ................................................................................... 22
Table 10 Land lease floor price in Addis Abeba .......................................................................... 22
Table 11 Dairy herd size projection .............................................................................................. 24
Table 12 production program........................................................................................................ 25
Table 13 Manpower requirement and salary costs ....................................................................... 27
Table 14 Fixed capital investment costs ....................................................................................... 29
Table 15 Lists of machineries costs .............................................................................................. 30
Table 16 Utilities of the project .................................................................................................... 33
Table 17 Overhead costs ............................................................................................................... 34
Table 18 Depreciation costs .......................................................................................................... 35
Table 19 Materials input in quantity ............................................................................................. 41
Table 20 Materials input in Birr”000” .......................................................................................... 41
Table 21 Annual total production costs ........................................................................................ 42
Table 22 Calculation of working capital ....................................................................................... 43
Table 23 sales revenue in quantity ................................................................................................ 44
Table 24 Sales revenue in birr'000' ............................................................................................... 44
Table 25 Projected Net income statment'000' ............................................................................... 45
Table 26 Debt service schedule and computation'000' ................................................................. 46
Table 27 Projected cash flow statement........................................................................................ 47
Table 28 Summary of financial efficiency tests ........................................................................... 48
Table 29 Total investment costs '000' ........................................................................................... 49
Table 30 Total Assets.................................................................................................................... 49
Table 31 Sources of finance'000' .................................................................................................. 50
Table 32 Calculation of payback period'000' ................................................................................ 50
Table 33 Calculation of NPV AT 17% Discount factor ............................................................... 51
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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This project profile is prepared to assess the viability of running Dairy farming business, in
Addis Abeba city administration. Hence Market, Technical, Organizational and Financial study
was made to investigate the viability of the envisaged project.
This project profile on Dairy farming has been developed to support the decision –making
process based on a cost benefit analysis of the actual project viability. This profile includes
marketing study, production and financial analysis, which are utilized to assist the decision-
makers when determining if the business concept is viable. Ethiopia has a private sector driven
dairy farming. According to the latest data sourced from Ethiopian investment commission there
are more than 252 companies were registered to invest on dairy farming business in Ethiopia and
62 companies are on operational stage whiles others are on implementation and pre-
implementation stages.
The location of the plant will be decided on the basis of access to materials input, infrastructure
namely power, water, transport and telecom to easy access to international market. The most
locally available raw materials for dairy farming are feed and medicine maize. This dairy sector
investment opportunity brief highlights the investors or Promoters of The company for the
establishment of this a dairy farming facility to produce milk products that have an extended shelf
life. The project will have assumed to be produce 10,000 liters per day of raw milk.
The total investment capital including establishing the factory is Birr 178.62 million. Out of the
total investment capital, the owners will cover Birr 53.58 million (30 %) while the remaining
balances amounting to Birr 125.04 million (70 %) will be secured from bank in the form of term
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loan.
As indicated in the financial study, the cash flow projection of the project shows surplus from the
first year on. The net cash flows of the project range from Birr 42 Million in the first year to Birr
272 million at the end of the 10th year of operation. At the end of the 10th year of operation
period the cumulative cash balance reaches Birr 1.3 billion birr. The Benefit-cost ratio and Net
present value (NPV) have been calculated at 17% discount factor (D.F) for 10 years of the
project activity. Accordingly, the project has NPV of 646 million Birr at 17%D.F. and the
benefit-cost ratio of 2.98 at 17% D.F.
Therefore, from the aforementioned overall market technical and financial analysis we can
conclude that the dairy farming business is a viable and worthwhile.
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1. Background information
1.1. Introduction
Ethiopia is reported to be gifted with the largest livestock population in Africa. Ethiopia has also
the largest number of milking cows in Africa, with 56.71 million cattle of which over 11.46 %
are dairy cows.it ranks first in Africa and 9 th from the world. Dairy has been identified as a
priority area for the Government, which aims to increase Ethiopian milk production. In line with,
the Government has projected to increase the national cow milk production by 93%, as a result
of the proposed interventions, during the GTP II (Second Growth & Transformation plan);
period (2015–2020) is 93%, a surplus of 2501 million liters over projected domestic
consumption requirements. This surplus of milk can then be substituted for imported milk
products and used domestically for new or additional industrial uses, or exported as milk powder
or UHT to raise foreign exchange earnings.
A future milk surplus could be realized through investment in better genetics, feed and health
services, improving both traditional dairy farms and commercial-scale specialized dairy
production units. The Government is actively supporting the private sector to produce UHT milk
and is making supporting investments in supply-chain infrastructure, training, and improved
breeds, and dairy-focused Agricultural Commercialization Clusters (ACCs). Ethiopia has close
proximity to large regional consumers of milk such as Sudan and Kenya, as well as to the Middle
East markets. Milk production and processing business have become the key industry in Ethiopia
as well as all across the world. Only 5% of the milk produced in Ethiopia is sold in commercial
markets. The Ethiopian Government has the view of strengthening competitiveness and
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promotions of enterprises remain cornerstones for the growth of the economy and the creation of
decent work opportunities. This means that there will be a great opportunity to jump into
commercial dairy farming and milk processing business. Hence, investing in dairy processing in
Ethiopia is a profitable activity.
1.2. Brief description of product
Dairy products currently sold in the Ethiopian market can be categorized into milk products,
such as raw, pasteurized, powder milk; butter products, such as fermented and pasteurized butter;
and other products, such as cottage and other type of cheese, sour milk and yogurt. Among these
products powder milk is not produced in Ethiopia at the moment, and are usually imported.
Pasteurized (table/bread) butter, yogurt and various type of cheese (apart from cottage cheese)
are both imported and locally produced.
Development of successful and sustainable dairy industry will be realized by strategic
interventions of the investors in to all parts of possible entry points along the milk value chain
especially on the innovation of new products. Accordingly, several entry points to produce new
products can be considered as intervention opportunity in the dairy industry value chain with
varied degree of resource requirement and level of competitions.
Detail Product Description

Milk: is a valuable nutritious food that has a short shelf-life and requires careful handling.
Milk is highly perishable because it is an excellent medium for the growth of microorganisms.
Particularly bacterial pathogens – that can cause spoilage and diseases in consumers. Milk
processing allows the preservation of milk for days, weeks or months and helps to reduce food-
borne illness. Pasteurization is a heat treatment process that extends the usable life of milk and
reduces the numbers of possible pathogenic microorganisms to levels at which they do not
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represent a significant health hazard. Milk can be processed further to convert it into high-value,
concentrated and easily transportable dairy products with long shelf-lives, such as butter, cheese
and ghee.
1.3. Critical factors to Invest in the sectors

 Quite a lot of incentive and support are available from the government at all level to ease
the entry of investors into the dairy industry.
 Due to the important nutritional value of milk, increasing consumption of milk either
directly or through fortified foods is often a priority of national health and nutrition
programs.
 Ethiopia’s priority is to supply enough milk and dairy products for its population though
own production
 with the objective of promoting commercial dairy production and the inflow of foreign
capital and technology into the country, the Ethiopian government provides various
packages of regulatory fiscal incentives to both foreign and domestic investors engaged
in establishing new enterprises and expansions.
 The increase in urbanization, the population growth and increase in
disposable income
1.4. Project location justification
1.4.1. Location of Addis Ababa
Addis Ababa is the seat of the Ethiopian federal government. It is located on the central
highlands of Ethiopia in the middle of Oromia Region. The absolute location is around the
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intersection point of 901’48’’N latitude and 38°44′24″E longitudes. This is very near to the
geographical center of the country. It is, therefore, equidistant to the peripheral areas or is
equally accessible to almost all parts of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa is located on a well-watered
plateau surrounded by hills and mountains. The city is in the highlands on the edge of the
Ethiopian rift valley or the eastern slopes of the Entoto Mountain ranges bordering the Great Rift
Valley. The total area of Addis Ababa is about 540 km2 of which 18.2 km2 are rural. Addis
Ababa’s built-up urban area spans 474 km2. It is also the largest city in the world located in a
landlocked country.
1.4.2. Demography of Addis Ababa
According to the CSA (2013) population projection, Ethiopia’s total population reaches about
105 million people in 2022. Of the total population 22.9% (24 million people) live in urban
areas. Ethiopia’s urban population is expected to triple by 2037 (World Bank, 2015). Addis
Ababa hosts an estimated 3,859,638 people. Currently, Addis Ababa is experiencing an annual
growth rate of 3.8% and is estimated to reach 4,696,629 inhabitants by 2032 (CSA, 2015).
1.4.3. Economic activity of Addis Ababa
The transformation of Addis Ababa has especially been rapid since 1991. According to the data
from the city’s Bureau of Finance and Economic Development (2006), per capital income of
Addis Ababa has grown from USD 788.48 in 2010 to USD 1,359 in 2015. The city also achieved
a decline in the poverty index from a high of 29.6 in 2012 to 22.0 in 2014. Moreover, the current
poverty headcount index for Addis Ababa is estimated at 18.9 while the poverty severity account
for 5 and 1.8 index points respectively. Even though, the poverty status of Addis Ababa has an
improvement over previous years, there is still much work to be done to curb both the incidence
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and severity of poverty.
The major contributor to the economic growth of the city is the implementation of publicly
financed mega urban projects like condominium housing, the Light Rail Transit, the international
airport and industrial zone development (The state of Addis Ababa, 2017). The existence of
international large and medium-size enterprises in and around Addis Ababa have also significant
role in creating huge opportunity for employment and technology transfer. Furthermore, there are
strong demand for goods and services following the existence of many embassies and inter-
governmental organizations like the African Union, the United Nations Economic Commission
for Africa.
The manufacturing sector’s contribution to Addis Ababa’s GDP is high. Despite the fact that
86% of the industries in the city are micro and small scale (cottage and handicrafts, and small-
scale), the majority of the country’s large and medium scale industries are found in the city.
Noticeable increases are also registered currently in other aspects of industrial growth.
The service sector is both the largest contributor to the city’s economy and the largest employer.
It contributes to 76.4% of the city’s GDP while industry’s share makes up (almost all) the rest.
This sector is dominated by three major sub-sectors: Transport and communication; Real estate,
Renting and Business services; and Trade, Hotel and Restaurants. According to the state of
Ethiopian Cities 2015 report, the service sector has also been responsible for more than 50% of
the growth in the estimated annual growth of the city’s GDP. Although 75% of employment in
the city is also generated in the service sector, a large proportion of the employed work in low
skill and low paying jobs as shop salespersons, petty and 'gullit' traders, sales workers in small
shops, domestic helpers or doorkeepers and restaurant service workers.
Analysis of the economic structure of Addis Ababa reveals that the services sectors (63%)
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dominates with industry (36%) in second place indicating that these sectors account for almost
all of the Addis Ababa’s GDP (The State of Addis Ababa, 2017).
Addis Ababa has a great share in the economy of the country due to its attractiveness to
businesses, companies, individuals and foreign direct investment. Overall primacy index of the
city is 24.8 based on urban employment and unemployment survey (CSA 2015). According to
the State of Addis Ababa 2017 report, the simultaneous high rates of economic growth and
urbanization in Addis Ababa indicates a likely further rising dominance of the city in Ethiopia’s
economy as well as growing agglomeration of economic activities in and around the city.
1.5. Why is it beneficial to invest in Addis Ababa?

Addis Ababa is the largest and most economically significant city in the country. Ethiopia’s
urban population share is only 17 percent (as of 2012, World Bank 2015). The city is the only
urban area in Ethiopia capable of delivering scale economies in terms of concentrated demand,
specialization, diversity and depth of skills, innovation, and technology transfers. Thus, investors
will be benefited in getting capable human power from the market.
The capital is the country’s main industrial hub. The city dominates industrial capacity in almost
all the braches of light manufacturing that Ethiopia prioritizes. As a result Addis Ababa
completely dominates production in various subsectors. This can be taken as the political and
social stability of the city.
Overall, the city has a beautiful environment, favorable location, and strong industrial base. Its
advantage as an economic powerhouse of the country and human resource center are the most
attractive features for local and overseas investors.
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Moreover, investors will be getting a comprehensive set of incentives for priority sectors. These
include:
 Customs duty free privilege on capital goods and construction materials, and on spare
parts whose value is not greater than 15% of the imported capital goods’ total value.
 Investors have the right to redeem a refund of customs duty paid on inputs (raw materials
and components) when buying capital goods or construction materials from local
manufacturing industries.
 Income tax exemption of up to 6 years for manufacturing and agro-processing, and up to
9 years for agricultural investment.
 Additional 2-4 years income tax exemption for exporting investors located within
industrial parks and 10-15 years exemption for industrial park developers.
 Loss Cary forward for half of the tax holiday period. Several export incentives, including
Duty Draw-Back, Voucher, Bonded Factory, and Manufacturing Warehouse, and Export
Credit Guarantee schemes.
1.5.1. The city benefit from the investment

The city will be benefited from investment. These are discussed below.
 Employment opportunity
Investment is expected to provide direct and indirect employment. These range from
unskilled causal workers, semi-skilled and skilled employees.
 Improving growth of the economy
Through the use of locally available materials and exporting products, the investment
contributes towards growth of the economy by contributing to the growth of domestic
product. These eventually attract taxes including VAT which will be payable to the
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government hence increasing government revenue while the cost of local materials will
be payable directly to the producers. In addition, domestic products save foreign
exchange and exports also bring money to the country.
2. Marketing Study
2.1. Market analysis summary
The current drive and emphasis by the government on the diversification of the industrial base
away from the other sector presents an opportunity for dairy farming to a valuable contribution
towards achieving goal. Having undertaken a thorough and comprehensive research of the
market we realized that there was a vast opportunity for domestic products. Aware of the fact
operating in such a market is largely dependent on good networking, the promoter intends to
establish networks and strategic relationships with various wholesalers and retailers to ensure a
steady stream of orders. In so doing the owner intend to ensure that the products they produce are
of extremely high quality and fully serve the customers purpose.
2.2. The Supply of processed milk products in Ethiopia
2.2.1. Local Processed milk and milk products Supply
In Ethiopia there are large scales, medium and small scale milk processing plant. The design
capacity of the large and medium scale plants is estimated to be about 148,050 liters per day of
different types of milk products (pasteurized milk, butter, cheese, and yogurt). The design
capacity of these plants is shown below.
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Table 1 Some of milk processing plants and their capacities in Ethiopia
S/No Factory Daily processing Attained average

capacity (in Production Capacity in
Liters) lit/day
1 Sebeta agro industry(mama Dairy) 35,000 30,000

2 Lame Dairy processing 60,000 30,000
3 Mb Plc (family milk) 15,000 7,000
4 Ada’a Dairy cooperative 15,000 3,000
5 Beria and family plc 9,000 6,000
6 Holland dairy 4,000 4,000
7 AlmiTikuWetet 4,000 4,000
8 Ruth and Hiruit Dairy farm 4,000 3,000
9 Abay fana Awash Agro industry 3,500 1,000
10 Chuye milk and milk products 3,000 2,000
processing
11 Fantu and family dairy farm 2,500 1,000
12 Zemen milk 2,000 2,000
13 Penguin international business plc 1,800 150
14 Life milk processing enterprise 1,500 600
15 Semit agro industry/Enat milk 4,000 1,500
16 Beral milk 5,000 300
17 Harmonise agro industry 5,000 1,000
18 Jantekel Dairy union 1,200 500
19 Mdjo Dairy 4,000 1,000
20 Some others 50,000
Total 148,050
Source: FAO and consultant survey
2.2.2. Import
The supplies of pasteurized Milk, cheese, yogurt and butter have been met both through import
and domestic production. Although there is no apparent trend in the growth of import
pasteurized Milk, cheese, yogurt and butter have continuously been appearing in the import
statistics.
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2.2.3. Imported processed Milk (Pasteurized Milk, cheese, yogurt and butter)
As it has been shown in table 2 import of pasteurized Milk which was 1,553,132 kg at the
beginning of the period (2012) has grown to 9,544,489kg by the end of December, 2021. A
closer observation at the data set reveals that imported pasteurized Milk over the study period
has shown varying patterns that is, fluctuation from 2012 to 2021.
As it has been shown in table 3 import of cheese which was 97,567 kg at the beginning of the
period (2012) has grown to 120,028 kg by the end of December, 2021. A closer observation at
the data set reveals that imported cheese over the study period has shown varying patterns that is,
fluctuation from 2012 to 2021.
As it has been shown in table 4 import of yogurt which was 33,047 kg at the beginning of the
period (2012) has grown to 39,925 kg by the end of December, 2021. A closer observation at the
data set reveals that imported yogurt over the study period has shown varying patterns that is,
fluctuation from 2012 to 2021
As it has been shown in table 5 import of butter which was 11,110 kg at the beginning of the
period (2012) has decreased to 2,003kg by the end of December, 2021 A closer observation at
the data set reveals that imported butter over the study period has shown varying patterns.
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Table 2 Volume of imported pasteurized milk from 2012 to 2021 in kg
Item Gross Net Wt CIF Value IN CIF Value in Total Tax in

Year Description Wt(kg) (Kg) (ETB) (USD) (ETB)
2012 MILK 1,865,665.67 1,553,131.78 156,135,007.11 8,739,421.40 55,822,316.63
2013 MILK 1,194,441 1,013,759 78,893,310 4,196,430 28,495,011
2014 MILK 1,468,887 1,267,792 114,986,489 5,708,339 37,695,985
2015 MILK 1276136.74 1070081.54 120031057.5 5775722.14 42573018.8
2016 MILK 570404.33 472610.39 58891971.85 2726669.53 20332267.18
2017 MILK 2,376,180.72 2,182,731.28 242,285,966.94 10,004,829.98 65,106,541.00
2018 MILK 1,142,205.84 978,779.60 149,350,447.60 0.00 48,170,394.17
2019 MILK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 MILK 3,108,026.29 2,623,603.57 654,543,298.00 0.00 85,586,085.13
2021 MILK 10,249,314.1 9,544,488.62 1,470,796,190. 0.00 96,684,373.24
0 00
Average 2,595,929 2,303,148 339,256,642 4,182,428 54,513,431
Sources: Ethiopian Revenue and customs Authority
Table 3 Volume of imported cheese from 2012 to 2021 in kg
Item Gross Net Wt. CIF Value IN CIF Value in Total Tax in
Year Description Wt.(kg) (Kg) (ETB) (USD) (ETB)
2012 Cheese 102,727 97,567 8,884,511 497,297 5,949,324
2013 Cheese 85548 83532 12508642 665349 8421564
2014 Cheese 177363.93 175049.24 22202656. 1102219 7677205.84
2015 Cheese 171759.55 157121.82 19289550 928185 12758194.74
2016 Cheese 120728.77 109086.86 14540164 673202 9388119.37
2017 Cheese 187248.24 168380.85 22721204 938237 15047829.29
2018 Cheese 80,950.87 78,627.49 13,733,326.77 0.00 8,845,145.48
2019 Cheese 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 Cheese 109,487.19 100,356.6 14,528,230.00 0.00 9,472,542.26
4
2021 Cheese 135,741.74 120,028 22,997,588 0.00 15,260,324
Average 129,812 120,723 16,748,260 529,980 10,263,033
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Table 4 Volume of imported yogurt from 2012 to 2021 in kg
Item Gross Net Wt CIF Value IN CIF Value in Total Tax in

Year Description Wt(kg) (Kg) (ETB) (USD) (ETB)
2012 Yogurt 36,194.58 33,047.13 2,580,800.26 144,456.40 1,740,749.28
2013 Yogurt 12209.5 11488.5 1082221.16 57564.64912 729957.91
2014 Yogurt 52266.31 51950.31 2905118.79 144220.4368 1334193.89
2015 Yogurt 38887.85 36546.07 2114937.45 101767.7533 1426524.95
2016 Yogurt 25890.02 25890.02 1257795.23 58235.30477 793391.72
2017 Yogurt 38049.95 35819.12 2537285.6 104773.3481 1711398.88
2018 Yogurt 19,240.30 19,240.30 841,215.09 0.00 567,375.27
2019 Yogurt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2020 Yogurt 87,898 85,926 3,872,469 110,800 2,613,979
2021 Yogurt 41,625 39,926 3,457,833 78,019 2,426,345
Average 39,140 37,759 2,294,408 88,871 1,482,657
Table 5 Volume of imported butter from 2012 to 2021 in kg
Year Item Gross Net Wt CIF Value IN CIF Value in Total Tax in
Description Wt(kg) (Kg) (ETB) (USD) (ETB)
2012 butter 11,451.07 11,109.96 905,657.64 50,692.82 609,506.86

2013 butter 8358 8289 646256.56 34375.16609 435899.72
2014 butter 38939.35 38809.29 5408423.31 268493.383 725303.42
2015 butter 32172.07 30329.3 2779873.27 133763.5102 1875024.03
2016 butter 13851.35 13801.35 1205088.87 55795.02604 635590.62
2017 butter 14081.44 13741.09 2272018.5 93819.54338 1532476.16
2018 butter 1,892 1,892 171,890 115,902
2019 butter - 0.0 - -
2020 butter 3,930 3,647 488,021 13,963 329,382
2021 butter 2,218 2,003 292,109 6,591 206,476
Average 18,009 16,898 564,579 23,429 362,131
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2.2.3.1. Forecast of future import of Dairy products
Table 6 Future forecast of import of dairy products by trend adjusted exponential smoothing method
Year Projected local Forecasted import

supply Pasteurized milk Cheese Yogurt Butter
2022
54,038,250 9,544,489 120,028 39,926 3,103
2023
55,389,206 10,343,624 122,274 40,614 3,103
2024
56,773,936 11,142,760 124,520 41,302 3,103
2025
58,193,285 11,941,896 126,766 41,990 3,103
2026
59,648,117 12,741,031 129,012 42,678 3,103
2027
61,139,320 13,540,167 131,259 43,365 3,103
2028
62,667,803 14,339,303 133,505 44,053 3,103
2029
64,234,498 15,138,438 135,751 44,741 3,103
2030
65,840,360 15,937,574 137,997 45,429 3,103
2031
67,486,369 16,736,710 140,243 46,117 3,103
2032
69,173,529 17,535,845 142,489 46,805 3,103
Compiled by: - Consultant
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2.3. Processed milk products Demand Projection
The demand for processed milk products can be influenced by a number of factors. The size of
population and its growth rate, disposable income and prices are few among many variables.
However, data on some of these parameters are not readily available in Ethiopia. Consequently,
it is difficult if not possible to objectively quantify the actual demand. Nevertheless, for the
purpose of this study, attempts have been made to forecast the likely future demand for
Processed milk products on the basis of the following assumptions:
i. Ethiopia population is estimated to be 120,202,679. As of today
ii. Annual growth of population is taken to be 2.5%
iii. Preference by the processors to buy intermediary products instead of in-house

manufacturing.
iv. Expansion of fast food industry in the country
v. Increasing portion of office working women
vi. The existing processors foresee no change in supply
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2.4. Potential demand
Ethiopia has one of the lowest levels of per capital dairy consumption in the world. FAO and
other studies invariably revealed that the per capital milk and milk products consumption in
Ethiopia is about 19 kg, which is close to that for Africa of about 25kg and is much lower than
that recommended by world health organization (WHO) of 200kg and 175 kg of FAO as the
minimum level for a balanced diet. This depicts that the market for milk is positive owing to
inadequate supply of milk.
Table 7 Potential demand of milk products in kg
Year Number of Potential Demand GAP b/n

potential
population of milk products in Local supply of
demand and
processed milk
kg local supply
products
2022 120,202,679 2,283,850,901
54,038,250 2,229,812,651
2023 123,207,746 2,340,947,174
55,389,206 2,285,557,968
2024 126,287,940 2,399,470,853
56,773,936 2,342,696,917
2025 129,445,138 2,459,457,624
58,193,285 2,401,264,339
2026 132,681,267 2,520,944,065
59,648,117 2,461,295,948
2027 135,998,298 2,583,967,666
61,139,320 2,522,828,346
2028 139,398,256 2,648,566,858
62,667,803 2,585,899,055
2029 142,883,212 2,714,781,030
64,234,498 2,650,546,532
2030 146,455,292 2,782,650,555
65,840,360 2,716,810,195
2031 150,116,675 2,852,216,819
67,486,369 2,784,730,450
2032 153,869,592 2,923,522,240
69,173,529 2,854,348,711
As it is indicated above the potential demand for processed milk products at 2022 is 2.2 billion
kg. This volume will increase to 2.85billion kg in the year 2032.
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3. Engineering and technology
3.1. Engineering
3.1.1. Land, buildings and civil works
The required area (m2) and construction cost for the production facilities essential for the
successful operation of the processing plant is shown below.
A total area ready for the processing plant is about 10,000m2 out of which 5,130 m2 is to be
covered by building while uncovered area of 4,870 m2 is left open for parking, septic tank. In
order to estimate the land lease cost of the project profiles it is assumed that all the project will
be located in different land level from level 1/1 to level 4/3, their current market lease price is
2
from 39,073.31 birr per M to 2,800.71 birr per M 2respectively. Therefore, for the profile a
land lease rate of birr 3,885 per M 2 have been taken, which is between the ranges.
The cost of construction of building should be appropriate to the size and expected profitability
of business, costs of building generally differs by the type of construction materials used, the
type of foundation, wall height and location. The total construction cost of buildings and civil
2
works, at a rate of Birr 20,000 per m is estimated at Birr 105.60million.
3.1.2. Plant layout
Plant layout is the plan of optimum arrangement of an industrial facility. It embraces the physical
arrangement of various departments, machines, equipment and services for economical, efficient
and effective functioning while planning the production of any goods. The agro processing plant
layout has been developed taking into consideration international and national code of hygienic
practices.
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Table 8 Estimated construction costs
Estimated
cost per Total estimated cost
S/No Total area in square meter
Descriptions
M2
(in Birr) ( in Birr)
1 Animal feed store 1,000 20,000.00 20,000,000.00
2 Shade 2,500 20,000.00 50,000,000.00
3 Laboratory room 50 20,000.00 1,000,000.00
4 Milk store room 1,000 20,000.00 20,000,000.00
14 Power station room 20 20,000.00 400,000.00
16 Administration office 100 20,000.00 2,000,000.00
18 Toilet and shower for female 40 20,000.00 800,000.00
Room for cloth changing for 40 800,000.00
19 20,000.00
female
20 Toilet and shower for male 40 20,000.00 800,000.00
21 Room for cloth changing for male 40 20,000.00 800,000.00
22 Parking 300 20,000.00 6,000,000.00
25 For expansion 4,870 0.00 0.00
26 Fence 0 Lump sum 3,000,000.00
GRAND TOTAL 10,000 105,600,000.00
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Table 9 Land lease period in Addis Abeba
Sector of development Period of Down

activity lease payment
Education, health, culture 90 10%
and sports
Industry (manufacturing ) 70 10%
commerce 60 10%
For urban agriculture 15 10%
For others 60 10%
Sources: - city government of Addis Abeba land development and management bureau
Table 10 Land lease floor price in Addis Abeba

S/No Land level Current land lease Current lease price per M2
floor price per M2 (Market price )
1 1/1 2,213.25 39,073.31
2 1/2 2,165.47 36,825.73
3 1/3 1,900.19 34,578.15
4 ¼ 1,552.93 31,119.21
5 1/5 1,531.91 29,096.45
6 2/1 1327.39 27,073.71
7 2/2 1,221.18 25,050.96
8 2/3 1,191.17 23,028.21
9 2/4 1,074.39 21,005.46
10 2/5 1,027.84 18,982.71
11 3/1 994.71 16,959.96
12 3/2 960.21 14,937.21
13 3/3 927.84 12,914.46
14 ¾ 904.77 10,891.71
15 3/5 873.74 8,868.96
16 4/1 814.06 6,846.21
17 4/2 786.45 4,823.46
18 4/3 748.80 2,800.71
Sources: - city government of Addis Abeba land development and management bureau
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3.2. Technology
3.2.1. Assumptions
 The project life is ten years

 Male caves will be disposed of between zero and one month after birth
 Both male and female calves consume 3liters/head/day for 15 days. Then all male
calves will be culled while female calves continue to consume 3 liters for 90 days
 90% of the cows/heifers expected to be pregnant
 Calving interval = 1 year
 Calf mortality = 5%
 Death rate of cow = 2%
 Starting from fourth years 50% of new cow will be sold to Nearby community and
dairy farm and other 50% used in farm.
 Only two male calves maintain in farm each year other will be sold
 Medication and veterinary is assumed to cost Birr 200 /head/annum
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Table 11 Dairy herd size projection
Dairy Herd Size Projection
Rate
No Description (%) Project Years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 Cows - 300 300 300 355 420 495 584 689 812 958
Milking cows
available at hand - 300 300 300 355 420 495 584 689 812 958
Purchase 300 - - - - - - - - - -
Death 2% 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 14 16 19
Culls 3% 9 9 9 10 12 14 17 21 24 27
Closing Numbers 285 285 285 338 400 471 556 654 771 910
2 FEMALE CALF
Available at Hand
BIRTH 45% 128 128 128 152 180 212 250 294 347 409
DEATH 5% 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 15 17 20
Closing Numbers 122 122 122 145 171 202 238 279 330 389
3 Heifers 1 - 2 Years
Heifers available at 122 122 122 145 171 202 238 279 330 389
hand
Death 3% 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12
Culls 3% 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12
Closing Numbers 116 116 116 137 161 190 224 263 310 365
4 Heifers 2- 3 Years
Heifers available at 116 116 116 137 161 190 224 263 310 365
hand
Death 3% 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Culls 3% 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SALE 55 55 55 65 75 89 105 123 146 172
Closing Numbers 55 55 55 65 75 89 105 123 146 172
5 Male Calves
BIRTH 45% 128 128 128 152 180 212 250 294 347 409
DEATH 5% 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 15 17 20
SALE 120 120 120 143 169 200 236 277 328 387
Closing Numbers 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Total closing Herd
size 580 580 580 687 809 954 1125 1321 1559 1838
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3.2.2. Plant capacity
Processing raw milk produces a number of products such as, pasteurized milk, yoghurt, cheese
and butter, and investment could be on pasteurizing plants with a capacity of processing 10,000
liters’ per day and we assume 365 working days per year The processing plant will start
production at 70% of 10,000 lit/day, which will grow to 80% in the second year and 90%
capacity will be attained in the third year. Full capacity production will be attained in the fourth
year and onwards.
3.2.3. Production program
Table 12 production program
Dairy Herd Size Projection
Rate
No Description (%) Project Years
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 Cows - 300 300 300 355 420 495 584 689 812 958
Closing Numbers 285 285 285 338 400 471 556 654 771 910
2 FEMALE CALF
Closing Numbers 122 122 122 145 171 202 238 279 330 389
3 Heifers 1 - 2 Years
Closing Numbers 116 116 116 137 161 190 224 263 310 365
4 Heifers 2- 3 Years
SALE 55 55 55 65 75 89 105 123 146 172
Closing Numbers 55 55 55 65 75 89 105 123 146 172
5 Male Calves
SALE 120 120 120 143 169 200 236 277 328 387
Closing Numbers 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Total closing Herd
size 580 580 580 687 809 954 1125 1321 1559 1838
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3.2.4. Environmental and social impact assessment of the project
Typically, any developmental projects also trigger a set of environmental and social impacts.
These environmental and social due to development projects occur in different forms. An
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) has to be carried out to study the potential
environmental and social impacts due to dairy farming. Potential environmental and social
impacts due to the production of dairy farming products on attributes like air quality, noise,
water quality, soil, flora, socio-economic, etc. have to be assessed as part of the ESIA study.
Appropriate mitigation measures to help minimize/avoid impacts from the development have to
be recommended in the study. The measures include avoidance measures, mitigation measures
and environmental enhancement measures. For the purpose of including environmental costs, the
costs of wastewater treatment plant and solid waste incineration systems are included in the cost
of machinery and equipment. Social responsibility cost estimated to be 1% of fixed investment
costs.
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4. Organizational structure for milk processing plant
The selection of structure of the envisaged project is made based on the existing structure of
dairy farming business operating in the country, the capacity, complexity and technology mix of
the plant. Organizational structure principles such as specialization, coordination, and
departmentalization are also considered for design of structure that best suits the envisaged
project
4.1. Manpower Requirement and Estimated Annual Labor costs
Table 13 Manpower requirement and salary costs
Description Number Monthly salary Annual salary, Birr

General manager 1 30,000.00 360,000.00
Administration and finance manager 1 20,000.00 240,000.00
Human resource manager 1 15,000.00 180,000.00
Secretary 1 7,500.00 90,000.00
Marketing and sales officer 1 10,000.00 120,000.00
Sales manager 1 20,000.00 240,000.00
Accountant 1 10,000.00 120,000.00
Veterinary doctor 1 20,000.00 240,000.00
Mechanic 1 10,000.00 120,000.00
Electrician 1 10,000.00 120,000.00
Purchaser 1 10,000.00 120,000.00
Operator 3 5,000.00 180,000.00
Ass. Operator 3 3,000.00 108,000.00
Laboratory technician 1 7,500.00 90,000.00
Guard 4 4,000.00 192,000.00
Driver 1 10,000.00 120,000.00
Cleaners 12 3,000.00 432,000.00
Total 35 3,072,000.00
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5. Financial Analysis
5.1. General
The financial analysis evaluation of Dairy farming project, are mainly consisted of capital
investment as well as operating and maintenance costs. The capital investment costs include
fixed investment costs (initial fixed investment and replacement costs) and working capital,
while operating and maintenance costs comprise current expenses related to material inputs,
manpower cost, utility, repair and maintenance costs, spare parts, Overheads, Sales and
distribution, interest and depreciation expenses.
The financial analysis and evaluation has been conducted taking assumptions:
1. It is assumed that about 70% of the total capital investment costs including the working
capital requirement could be covered through development bank loans of short and long-
term credits. The remaining balance 30% will be covered by equity capital contribution
of the project owner.
2. Even though the project might secure loans under different term and conditions as well as
from different financial sources, for the purpose of calculation of debt service scheduling,
the current development bank of Ethiopia credit terms and conditions have been used.
Consequently. It is assumed that the project will secure loan facility on the basis of 11.5
% annual interest rate.
3. Even though the estimated project production life is more 10 years, the financial analysis
has been undertaken for a period interval covering the first 10 years only, during which
time most of the capital assets are assumed to be deprecated, debts recovered and pay-
back period accomplished.
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4. It is assumed that the project will be start up production activity at 70 % capacity. During
years 2 & year 3 the projects is anticipated to gradually increase capacity utilization to
reach 100% in year 4. Therefore, starting from year 4 the project will be operational at
full capacity.
5. For the project under reference promotional, sales and distribution expenses have been
estimated at 3% of the sales revenue.
6. Maintenance and spare parts costs are 1.5% of the fixed investment costs.
7. Furniture and fixture costs assumed to be 500,000.00
5.2. Fixed capital investment costs
Table 14 Fixed capital investment costs
S/No Fixed investment Unit of Quantity Unit price Total Amount Remarks
type measurement
1 Land Square meter 10,000 3,885 38,850,000.00 The period of land
lease will be 70
birr/M2 years and 10%
2 Buildings and civil Square meter 5,130 lump sum 105,600,000.00 of the total lease
works amount will be
paid in the first
year
Sub total 144,450,000.00
3 Machineries set 2 Lump sum 12,000,000.00
4 Transformer set 1 Lump sum 2,000,000.00
5 Weighbridge Set 1 Lump sum 4,000,000.00
6 Truck and vehicles Pcs 2 Lump sum 6,000,000.00
7 Furniture and Pcs 500,000.00
fixture
SUB TOTAL 24,500,000.00
Fixed capital 168,950,000.00
investment costs
8 pre-operational 2,000,000.00
expenses
Working capital 7,674,000.00
TOTAL INVESTMENT COSTS 178,624,000.00
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5.2.1. Machineries costs

Table 15 Lists of machineries costs
S/No Description of expenditure Quantity Unit price Total amount

(ETB) (ETB)
1 Milk reception 1 set 5,000,000 5,000,000.00
Milk testing unit
Weighing scale
Dump tank
Centrifugal pump (2)
Plate cooler
Milk cooling tank
Controlling
2 Cow milking machine 300 25,000 7,500,000.00
TOTAL IN ETHIOPIAN BIRR 12,000,000.00 ETB
5.2.1.1. Lists of machinery suppliers
ALIBABA
Hangzhou (Yuhang District)
969 West Wen Yi Road Yu Hang District, Hangzhou 311121
Zhejiang Province, China Tel: (+86) 571-8502-2088 Fax
(Mainland China): (+86) 571-8656-1717 Fax (Hong Kong,
Macao and Taiwan regions of China and Overseas): (+86) 571-
8376-8429
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5.3. Working capital
Working capital is the financial means required for smooth operation and maintenance of a
project mathematically, it is a difference between current assets and current liabilities. In the
particular case of the project under consideration, the current assets comprise receivables,
inventories (local and imported material inputs, spare parts, work in progress, and products ready
for delivery) and cash in hand, while current liabilities comprise accounts payable to creditors,
and are free of interest payment. Calculation of working capital and its assumption see in the
annex below.
5.4. Project Financing
Fixed capital investment costs, pre-operation capital expenditures and working capital
requirements are assumed to be financed by equity capital of the project promoter and through
loans of short and long-term credits.
As stated earlier even through the project might obtain loans under different terms are condition
as well as from different sources, for the purpose of calculation of debt service scheduling the
current Development bank of Ethiopia credit terms and conditions have been used. Accordingly,
it is assumed that the project will be able to obtain about 70% of the total investment costs
through bank loans that will have to be repaid back within 10 years, during which time interest
will be paid on the loan. The remaining balance, 30% of the total investment costs are expected
to be covered by equity contribution of the project promoter.
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5.5. Production costs
As it is depicted in Table 21 major categories of the total production costs are assembled into the
following cost elements.
5.5.1. Material inputs
In the project under study the basic material inputs are animal feed, medication and etc.
Therefore, the current prevailing local and international market prices have been used for
estimation of material inputs costs. At full capacity operation the material inputs costs are
estimated at Birr 35 million per annum. Because of the specific nature of the given project
which is based predominantly on local raw material utilization almost 100 % of the material
inputs are attributed to purchase of raw materials.
5.5.2. Utilities
In estimating costs of utility expenses for operation and maintenance of the project, Costs of fuel,
oil and lubricant, electricity and water consumptions have been taken in to consideration, the
rates of which have been estimated on the basis of the proposed capacity utilization program of
the project and at the current official charging rates. At full capacity operation the project will
have the following utility expense per annum which amounts to Birr 2.50 million.
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Table 16 Utilities of the project
S/No Utilities “000” Birr Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 Fuel
1.1. Gasoline for Isuzu’ (200km*365days*37 540 540 540 540
Birr/lit*5km/lit)
1.2. Gasoline for transport 200km*365days*37Birr/lit*3km/lit 900 900 900 900
truck (FSR)
Sub total 1,440 1,440 1,440 1,440
1.4. Change of oil and 10 % of fuel consumption 144 144 144 144
lubricant
Sub total 1,584 1,584 1,584 1,584
2 Electricity 365 days*16hrs*150kw*0.69Birr/kwh 423 483 544 604
3 Water 365 days*50 m3/day*15 Birr/m3 192 219 246 274
3 lines *500 Birr/month/line+8 Birr
4 Telephone /line/month 18.28 18.28 18.28 18.28
1 line *500 Birr/month + 17 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
5 Fax Birr/line/month
6 Internet 5,000 Birr/month 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Sub total 644.48 731.48 819.48 907.48
TOTAL 2,228 2,315 2,403 2,491
5.5.3. Over heads
In the expenses under this title have been included land and building taxes, buildings,
vehicles as well as machinery and equipment insurance, vehicles annual inspection; postage,
telephone and e. mail, stationery and office supplies; printing and copying; audit fee; cash
indemnity etc. The overhead costs and divided in to direct overheads and administration
overheads.
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Table 17 Overhead costs
S/No Overhead costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Direct overhead “000) Birr

Annual land lease payment 10,000 square meters 5,550 5,550 5,550 5,550
Insurance
 Building and civil works 0.1% 106.00 106.00 106.00 106.00
 Machinery and equipment 0.2 % 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00
 Vehicle and truck 2% 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00

 Vehicles annual inspection 20,000 Birr per annum per
and registration vehicle 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
Two times per annum per 70.00 70.00 70.00 70.00
Work cloth workers at 1,000 Birr
Cleaning and sanitation An estimate of 100 Birr/day 36.50 36.50 36.50 36.50
5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971
SUB TOTAL
Administration overhead
Audit fee 40,000 Birr per annum 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
Stationery and office supplies 2,000 per month 24.00 24.00 24.00 24.00
Printing and copying 2,000 per month 24.00 24.00 24.00 24.00
Cash indemnity 20,000 per annum 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00
SUB TOTAL 108.00 108.00 108.00 108.00
6,079 6,079 6,079 6,079
TOTAL
5.5.4. Financial costs
As it has been outlined earlier under” project Financing” the current development Bank of
Ethiopia credit terms and conditions for newly establishing projects have been used to compute
the financial costs, estimated to be incurred in connection with that portion of the total
investment costs assumed to be covered through loan financing. The amount of the loan capital
to be obtained and the financial costs to be incurred thereof have been determined depending on
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the fixed capital and the working capital requirements and the project implementation schedule.
5.5.5. Depreciation
Depreciation charges should be taken in to account as part of the total production costs in order
to calculate the total production costs, the net working capital and the gross or net-profit. For the
given project under reference, the fixed assets and the pre-production capital expenditures have
been depreciated and amortized respectively on “a straight line” depreciation method basis using
the following rates of the original acquisition costs of the assets:
The rationale uses for the estimation of the depreciation and the amortization rates is based on
the expected service life of the assets and repayment capacity of the project under consideration.
Based on the above charging rates and consideration of the above facts, the total annual
depreciation cost at full capacity operation have been estimated at Birr 11.20 million.
Table 18 Depreciation costs
Period Start-up
Capacity utilization 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
Project year 1 2 3 4
Item description Original Value
5,280 5,280 5,280 5,280
Structure and civil works 105,600,000.00 5% of original value
3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600
Machinery and equipment 24,000,000.00 15 % of original value
300 300 300 300
Transformer 2,000,000.00 15 % of original value
900 900 900 900
Motor vehicles and trucks 6,000,000.00 15% of original value
600 600 600 600
Weighbridge 4,000,000.00 15 % of original value
100 100 100 100
Office equipment and furniture 500,000.00 20 % of original value
500 500 500 500
Pre-production expenses 2,000,000.00 25% of original value
Total 11,280 11,280 11,280 11,280
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5.6. Project costs
Project capital investment costs are the sum of fixed capital investment (fixed investment plus
pre-production capital expenses) and net working capital at full capacity, with fixed capital
constituting the resources required for land acquisition, construction of structures and civil
works, purchase, import and installation of production machinery and equipment and general
service facilities, whereas the working capital corresponding to the resources needed for
operation of the project totally or partially.
In the assumptions used to compute the working capital, basically care has been taken to cover of
consumable materials inventory (material inputs, spare parts stock, work-in progress and
products ready for delivery) delivered products.
5.7. Break Even point (BEP)
A. Break-even point(BEP) Sales
To determine BEP Annual Sales, multiply annual sales found in income statement by the
annual fixed cost, and divided by Annual sales less Annual variable cost.
BEP (sales)
Annual sales = 113,715,000 Birr
Unit selling price = 11,682 Birr(average)
BEP (sales) = = 41,315,578.00 birr
BEP percentage =
= 36.33%
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5.8. Return on investment

Return on investment =
= 95,193,000/125,036,800
= 76%
The return on owners’ investment (ROOI)
= 95,193,000/53,587,200
= 178%
5.9. Project benefits
For financial analysis and evaluation of the given project the current raw materials buying price
and raw milk selling price at the project gate has been taken as a basis. Consequently, based on
the recent market survey, raw materials buying price per kg at the nearby market points is shown
in Table 20 and delivery price of the milk products per liters or kg at the project gate is also
shown in Table 23. As it has been stated earlier the project is envisaged to reach full capacity
operation four years after commencement of production activities which are assumed to begin
with 70% of the estimated total capacity.
For financial analysis and evaluation of the given project, the current raw milk price at the
project gate has been taken as a basis. Consequently, based on the recent market survey, raw
milk price delivery price per liters at the nearby market pints is estimated at Birr 70. As it has
been stated earlier the project is envisaged to reach full capacity operation four years after
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commencement of production activities which are assumed to begin with 70% of the estimated
total capacity.
Thus, according to the computation in Annex Table 25 and Annex Table 27, the net income and
cash flow statements analysis revealed that at full capacity operation the project will generate a
total income (gross revenue) amounting to 191 million Birr per annum. The corresponding
Annex Table 25 of “Net Income Statement” shows a steady growth of gross profit starting from
59 million Birr in year 1 reaching the peak of 440 million Birr in year 10. In its 10 years of
manufacturing activities, the project is expected to generate a total net profit of 1.33 billion Birr
and contribute 719 million Birr to the government treasury in form of 35% income tax.
According to the current investment Law, machinery and equipment are anticipated to be
imported duty- free. The liquidity position of the project is very strong. The corresponding
Annex Table 27 of “Cash Flow Statement” shows the positive cumulative cash balance of Birr
1.3 billion and the project will not face any cash shortage throughout its production life.
The computation of the pay-back period as depicted in Annex table 32 indicates that the project
will be able to reimburse itself from its net cash-income within 4 years after commencement of
production activities, the period which is considered to be very good for the project of this
nature. In Annex Table 33 of the Net present value (NPV) have been calculated at 17% discount
factor (D.F) for 10 years of the project activity. Accordingly, the project has NPV of 646 million
Birr and benefit cost ratio is 2.98 at 17%D.F. These results are most appreciable, especially,
when related to the external capital borrowing interest rate which ranges from 8.50% to 18.50 %
for newly establishing projects. The project under study when implemented will have BEP at
about 36% operation of the estimated full capacity. In addition to this, finally, summary of
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financial efficiency tests have been conducted in Annex table 28, Accordingly, all efficiency
ratios indicated positive trends and consequently, it can be inferred that the project can operate in
the frame work of free market mechanism on commercially and financially viable basis and is
remunerative.
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ANNEX
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Table 19 Materials input in quantity
Year Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Animal feed
 Concentrate kg 364,088 364,088 364,088 453,513 536,550 632,363 746,060 880,198 1,037,330 1,223,845
 Hay mixture Quintals 109,500 109,500 109,500 129,575 153,300 180,675 213,160 251,485 296,380 349,670
Medication Lump 150,000 150,000 150,000 177,500 210,000 247,500 292,000 344,500 406,000 479,000
sum 500
birr/cow
Table 20 Materials input in Birr”000”
Year Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
price
Animal feed
 Concentrate 35 12,743 12,743 12,743 15,873 18,779 22,133 26,112 30,807 36,307 42,835
 Hay mixture 15 1,643 1,643 1,643 1,944 2,300 2,710 3,197 3,772 4,446 5,245
Medication Lump 150 150 150 178 210 248 292 345 406 479
sum
Total 14,536 14,536 14,536 17,995 21,289 25,091 29,601 34,924 41,159 48,559

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CALCULATION OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION COSTS
Table 21 Annual total production costs
Project Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cost category
I. Material inputs 14,536 14,536 14,536 17,995 21,289 25,091 29,601 34,924 41,159 48,559
II. Labor 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072 3,072
III. Utility
2,228 2,315 2,403 2,491 2,491 2,491 2,491 2,491 2,491 2,491
IV. Repair and Maintenance and spare parts (1.5 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952
% of fixed costs)
VI Direct overheads 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971 5,971
A. Direct Production costs
27,759 27,846 27,934 31,481 34,775 38,577 43,087 48,410 54,645 62,045
VII. Administration over head 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108
VIII. Marketing and Promotional expense 1 % of 1,137 853 1,293 1,912 2,261 2,664 3,149 3,703 4,368 5,155
sales revenue
B. Operating costs 29,004 28,807 29,335 33,501 37,144 41,349 46,344 52,221 59,121 67,308
Interest 14,379 13,539 12,603 11.560 10,396 9,099 7,652 6,039 4,241 2,235
Depreciation 11,280 11,280 11,280 11,280 10,780 10,680 8,882 5,280 5,280 5,280
C. Total production costs

54,663 53,626 53,218 44,793 58,320 61,128 62,878 63,540 68,642 74,823
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX I
CALCULATION OF WORKING CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS
I. Minimum requirement of current assets and liabilities
A. Accounts receivable: value of goods distributed but not yet paid for, value of 30 days finished goods
B. Inventory
1. Material inputs : 90days
2. Spare parts, maintenance and repair : 90 days
3. Work under process : one day at direct costs
4. Product ready for delivery : 1 day at direct costs plus administration overheads
C. Cash on hand : 90 days
D. Accounts payable 30 days for material inputs and utilities
ii. Working capital requirement
Table 22 Calculation of working capital
Minimum Coeff- Project year

Days of icient Start up Full capacity
coverage of
Cost category turnover
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
I. Current asset
A. A/R 26 10 2,900 2,881 2,934 3,350 3,714 4,135 4,634 5,222 5,912 6,731
B. Inventory
1. Material inputs 26 10 1,454 1,454 1,454 1,800 2,129 2,509 2,960 3,492 4,116 4,856
2. Spare parts 90 4 488 488 488 488 488 488 488 488 488 488
3. Work under process 1 260 214 214 215 242 268 297 331 372 420 477
4. Product ready for delivery 1 260 962 965 968 1,077 1,178 1,295 1,434 1,598 1,789 2,017
C. Cash on hand 90 4 3,333 3,355 3,377 3,399 3,399 3,399 3,399 3,399 3,399 3,399
D. Current assets 9,350 9,356 9,434 10,355 11,175 12,122 13,246 14,571 16,124 17,968
II. Current liabilities 1,676 1,685 1,694 2,049 2,378 2,758 3,209 3,742 4,365 5,105
A. A/p 26 10
III. Working capital
A. Net working capital 7,674 7,671 7,740 8,306 8,797 9,364 10,037 10,829 11,759 12,863
B. Increasing in working capital
7,674 3 69 566 0 0 0 0 0 0
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CONSULTING FIRM
Table 23 sales revenue in quantity
Year Unit/M Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
price
Capacity utilization
Output mix
Raw milk Liter 1,624,500 1,218,375 1,624,500 2,467,400 2,920,000 3,438,300 4,058,800 4,774,200 5,628,30 6,643,000
0
Heifers 2-3 years Number 0.0 0.0 55 65 75 89 105 123 146 172
Male calves Number 0.0 0.0 120 143 169 200 236 277 328 387
Table 24 Sales revenue in birr'000'
Year Unit/M Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
price
Capacity utilization
Output mix
Raw milk Liter 70 113,715 85,286 113,715 172,718 204,400 240,681 284,116 334,194 393,981 465,010
Heifers 2-3 years Number 125 0.0 0.0 6,600 7,800 9,000 10,680 13,125 15,375 18,250 21,500
Male calves Number 75 0.0 0.0 9,000 10,725 12,675 15,000 17,700 20,775 24,600 29,025
Total 113,715 85,286 129,315 191,243 226,075 266,361 314,941 370,344 436,831 515,535
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX VI
PROJECTED NET INCOME STATMENT
Table 25 Projected Net income statment'000'
Period Start up Full capacity
Capacity utilization 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
Project year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Item description
Product sales revenue 113,715 85,286 129,315 191,243 226,075 266,361 314,941 370,344 436,831 515,535
Less total production costs 54,663 53,626 53,218 44,793 58,320 61,128 62,878 63,540 68,642 74,823
Gross profit 59,052 31,660 76,097 146,450 167,755 205,233 252,063 306,804 368,189 440,712
Tax 20,668 11,081 26,634 51,258 58,714 71,832 88,222 107,381 128,866 154,249
Net profit 38,384 20,579 49,463 95,193 109,041 133,401 163,841 199,423 239,323 286,463
Accumulated undistributed
profit 38,384 58,963 108,426 203,618 312,659 446,061 609,902 809,324 1,048,647 1,335,110
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX VII
DEBT SERVICE SCHEDULE AND COMPUTATI
PAYMENT OF EQUAL ANNUAL INSTALLMENTS
Table 26 Debt service schedule and computation'000'
Item description Project year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
A. Investment and working capital
1. Investment
2. Increment working capital 7,674 3 69 566
Total
B. Loan receipts and balances
1. Loan receipts 125,036
2. Outstanding balance at end of year
a. First year loan 125,036 117,737 109,598 100,524 90,405 79,123 66,544 52,518 36,879 19,442
Total
C. Debt service
1. First year loan
a. Interest 14,379 13,539 12,603 11.560 10,396 9,099 7,652 6,039 4,241 2,235
b. Repayment of principal 7,299 8,138 9,074 10,118 11,281 12,579 14,025 15,638 17,437 19,442
total
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX VIII
CASH-FLOW STATEMENT
FOR
FINANCIAL PLANING
Table 27 Projected cash flow statement

Capacity utilization 70% 80% 90% 100%
Project year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Item description
A. Cash - inflow 294,014 85,292 129,393 192,164 226,075 266,361 314,941 370,344 436,831 515,535
1. Financial resource 180,299 6 78 921
(total)
2. Sales revenue 113,715 85,286 129,315 191,243 226,075 266,361 314,941 370,344 436,831 515,535
B. Cash – outflow 251,649 61,571 77,724 95,810 117,535 134,859 156,243 181,279 209,665 243,234
1. Total assets schedule 180,299 6 78 921
including replacement
2. Operating costs 29,004 28,807 29,335 33,501 37,144 41,349 46,344 52,221 59,121 67,308
3. Debt service (total)
a. Interest 14,379 13,539 12,603 11.560 10,396 9,099 7,652 6,039 4,241 2,235
b. Repayment 7,299 8,138 9,074 10,118 11,281 12,579 14,025 15,638 17,437 19,442
4. Tax 20,668 11,081 26,634 51,258 58,714 71,832 88,222 107,381 128,866 154,249
C. Surplus (Deficit) 42,365 23,721 51,669 96,354 108,540 131,502 158,698 189,065 227,166 272,301
D. Cumulative cash balance 42,365 66,086 117,755 214,109 322,649 454,151 612,849 801,914 1,029,080 1,301,381
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX XI
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL EFFECIENCY TESTS
Table 28 Summary of financial efficiency tests
Project year
Project year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Capacity utilization 70% 80% 90% 100%
Financial ratio in %
1. Gross profit : Revenue 52% 37% 59% 77% 74% 77% 80% 83% 84% 85%
2. Net profit : Revenue 34% 24% 38% 50% 48% 50% 52% 54% 55% 56%
3. Net profit : initial investment 21% 12% 28% 53% 61% 74% 91% 111% 134% 160%
4. Net profit : Equity 72% 38% 92% 176% 201% 246% 302% 368% 441% 528%
5. Gross profit : Initial investment 33% 18% 43% 82% 94% 114% 141% 171% 205% 246%
6. Operating costs : Revenue 26% 34% 23% 18% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13%
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX XII
TOTAL INVESTMENT COSTS
Table 29 Total investment costs '000'

Project year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Investment Category
1. Fixed investment costs
a. Initial fixed investment costs 168,950
b. Replacement
2. Pre-operational capital 2,000
expenditure
3. Working capital increase 7,674 3 69 566
Total investment costs 3 69 566
ANNEX XIII
TOTAL ASSETS
Table 30 Total Assets

Project year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Investment Category
1. Fixed investment costs
c. Initial fixed investment costs 168,950
d. Replacement
2. Pre-operational capital 2,000
expenditure
3. Current assets increase 9,350 6 78 921
Total assets 180,299 6 78 921
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX XIV
SOURCES OF FINANCE
Table 31 Sources of finance'000'

Project year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
Sources of finance
1. Equity capital 53,587 -3 69 566
2. Loan capital 125,037
3. Current liabilities 1,675 9 9 355
Total finance 180,299 6 78 921
ANNEX XV
Calculations of payback period
Table 32 Calculation of payback period'000'
Amount Paid Back Total

Year Net Profit Depreciation Total investment End of year
1 38,384 11,280 49,664 178,624 -128,960
2 20,579 11,280 31,859 -3 -97,098
3 49,463 11,280 60,743 69 -36,424
4 95,193 11,280 106,473 566 +69,483
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CONSULTING FIRM
ANNEX XVI
Calculations of Net present value at 17% D.F.
Table 33 Calculation of NPV AT 17% Discount factor

Project Gross Present value Project costs
year Revenue 1/(1+i)n At at 17% Total Operating Total Present value
17% investment costs at 17%
1 113,715 0.854701 97,192 178,624 29,004 207,628 177,460
2 85,286 0.730514 62,303 -3 28,807 28,804 21,042
3 129,315 0.624371 80,741 69 29,335 29,404 18,359
4 191,243 0.53365 102,057 566 33,501 34,067 18,180
5 226,075 0.456111 103,115 37,144 37,144 16,942
6 266,361 0.389839 103,838 41,349 41,349 16,119
7 314,941 0.333195 104,937 46,344 46,344 15,442
8 370,344 0.284782 105,467 52,221 52,221 14,872
9 436,831 0.243404 106,326 59,121 59,121 14,390
10 515,535 0.208037 107,250 67,308 67,308 14,003
Total 973,226 326,808
A. Benefit- cost ratio at 10% D.F. = 2.98

B. NPV at 10% D.F. = 646,418,000.00Birr
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0
CONSULTING FIRM

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MANUFACTURING OF

APRIL 23, 2022

SHIBAG MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT AND EIA

5.8. Return on investment .................................................................................................... 37

was made to investigate the viability of the envisaged project.

benefit-cost ratio of 2.98 at 17% D.F.

conclude that the dairy farming business is a viable and worthwhile.

or UHT to raise foreign exchange earnings.

and is making supporting investments in supply-chain infrastructure, training, and improved

Ethiopia is a profitable activity.

1.2. Brief description of product

are both imported and locally produced.

Development of successful and sustainable dairy industry will be realized by strategic

varied degree of resource requirement and level of competitions.

Detail Product Description

1.3. Critical factors to Invest in the sectors

the entry of investors into the dairy industry.

in establishing new enterprises and expansions.

 The increase in urbanization, the population growth and increase in

1.4. Project location justification

1.4.1. Location of Addis Ababa

1.4.2. Demography of Addis Ababa

1.4.3. Economic activity of Addis Ababa

and severity of poverty.

shops, domestic helpers or doorkeepers and restaurant service workers.

1.5. Why is it beneficial to invest in Addis Ababa?

will be benefited in getting capable human power from the market.

social stability of the city.

attractive features for local and overseas investors.

 Income tax exemption of up to 6 years for manufacturing and agro-processing, and up to

9 years for agricultural investment.

Credit Guarantee schemes.

1.5.1. The city benefit from the investment

unskilled causal workers, semi-skilled and skilled employees.

 Improving growth of the economy

2.1. Market analysis summary

of extremely high quality and fully serve the customers purpose.

2.2. The Supply of processed milk products in Ethiopia

2.2.1. Local Processed milk and milk products Supply

capacity of these plants is shown below.

Table 1 Some of milk processing plants and their capacities in Ethiopia

S/No Factory Daily processing Attained average

1 Sebeta agro industry(mama Dairy) 35,000 30,000

fluctuation from 2012 to 2021.

fluctuation from 2012 to 2021

Table 2 Volume of imported pasteurized milk from 2012 to 2021 in kg

Item Gross Net Wt CIF Value IN CIF Value in Total Tax in

Table 3 Volume of imported cheese from 2012 to 2021 in kg

Table 4 Volume of imported yogurt from 2012 to 2021 in kg

Item Gross Net Wt CIF Value IN CIF Value in Total Tax in

Sources: Ethiopian Revenue and customs Authority

Table 5 Volume of imported butter from 2012 to 2021 in kg

2012 butter 11,451.07 11,109.96 905,657.64 50,692.82 609,506.86

2.2.3.1. Forecast of future import of Dairy products

Year Projected local Forecasted import

Compiled by: - Consultant

2.3. Processed milk products Demand Projection

Processed milk products on the basis of the following assumptions:

i. Ethiopia population is estimated to be 120,202,679. As of today