PUB Energy and Urban Innovation Case Study Tokyo 2010 WEC
PUB Energy and Urban Innovation Case Study Tokyo 2010 WEC
PUB Energy and Urban Innovation Case Study Tokyo 2010 WEC
1.Data
Demographics, economics and city shape
The city of Tokyo comprises 23 special ward areas (8,7 millions inhabitants), the Tama area
(4,1 millions) and the Islands (28.000). Tokyo, along with most of Chiba’s, Kanagawa’s and
Saitama’s prefectures makes part of the Greater Tokyo Area. While the city of Tokyo had an
estimated population of 12.79 million in 2007, the Greater Tokyo Area population was
estimated at 35,7.
In order to make a distinction between Tokyo and the Greater Tokyo Area we will refer to
Tokyo as the city comprising 23 special ward areas, the Tama Area and the Islands. Most of
the data presented comprises only Tokyo and in some cases only the 23 special wards1.
Distinctions between will be done to avoid confusion.
10,00 85
8,00 7,35 65
6,36
6,00 45
4,00 3,49 25
2,01
2,00 1,00 5
0,00 -15
1750 1900 1935 1940 1945 1962 1965 1970 1980 1990 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years
Even though Tokyo is referred as one of the biggest megacity in the world, declining fertility
rates and modest migration make it one of the most slowly growing megacities in the world.
While population growth rates have recovered slightly from the negative values observed in
1
http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/PROFILE/overview03.htm
07/09/2010 1
the 90’s, fertility rates continue to decline and are insufficient to assure population
replacement. This makes parts of Japan’s population shrinking trend.
Table 1. Population growth, density and fertility rates
1990 1995 2000 2005
Population growth (%/year) -0,06 -0,19 0,68 0,76
Total fertility rate (%/year) 1,23 1,11 1,07 1,00
2
Density of inhabitable land (persons/km ) 8 613 8 533 8 643 9 010
Source: Metropolitan government webpage
Tokyo compactness has its origins at the time of Edo, city that was totally dependent on
walking and man pull/push carriage and where horse carriage where not commonly used.
This human walking distance size restriction is at the core of Tokyo’s density distribution and
density, which has remained stable over the years at around 7000-8000 persons per square
kilometer. Additionally, Japan’s lack of natural resources and energy dependence central
policies leaded Tokyo to become a mass urban transport oriented city which contributed to
the conservation of its compact form. Figure 2 reveals Tokyo density distribution from the
early 1960 until 2000. Contrary to other massive transport oriented cities, like Mexico DF,
most of the school-work commuting is done by the metro while a miniscule share is done by
buses.
As most cities in developed countries, Tokyo’s economy is primarily based in tertiary
industries that account for 77,4% of total employment (National Census, 2005) while the
secondary sector only accounts for 18,7% and the primary sector for around 0,4%. GDP of
Tokyo accounts for about 18% of Japan’s GDP while concentrating around 10% of Japan’s
total population.
Figure 2. Tokyo density profile
1970
1960 1980
2000
1990
07/09/2010 2
Energy and GHG emissions
Energy consumption
Households
According to Dhakal and Kaneko (2009), per capita energy consumption in urban areas in
Japan is lower than that of non-urban areas. Historically, while there seems to be a
continuous increase in residential energy requirements since the early 50’s2, the energy
intensity (GJ/m2) of this sector has been reduced since the early 90’s3. This could be
explained by the slowing of household income and the saturation of household appliances.
Tokyo, when compared to other megacities of its type has a very small energy consumption
per capita (69MJ/p) against 178MJ/p in New York and 85MJ/p in London.
Most (67%) of the energy needs of the average household in Tokyo are concentrated in four
categories: air conditioner (25.5%), refrigerator (16.1%), lighting (16,1%) and television
(9,9%)4. Air heating doesn’t represent a big share of household’s energy requirements since
Japanese families don’t usually heat the whole house in cold seasons. This shows the
importance of behavior in energy consumption. In this manner, reducing energy consumption
of the average household in Tokyo has to comprise two different policies (on demand side):
energy efficiency appliances and consumption behavior.
350
300
250
kWh per household
200
150
100
50
0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Year
5
Source: TEPCO ILLUSTRATED 2008
In the case of the city of Tokyo energy expenses are relatively small when compared to the
rest of expenses and there has been little change in the past decade. Additionally, energy
2
passing from 49Kwh in 1951 to 297 in 2007
3
TEPCO Illustrated 2008
4
TEPCO Illustrated 2008
5
While they are other companies apart from TEPCO that supply electricity to Tokyo Metropolitan Area, most of
the electricity is supplied by TEPCO.
07/09/2010 3
expenditure pattern in Tokyo is equivalent to Japan’s typical household expenditure
distribution. No evidence of energy poverty was visible from available data.
0,1
0,0
2005
furniture and households utensils transportation and communication
Buildings
Figure 4 shows energy intensity for different types of service buildings. One can see clearly
how computer buildings double and even triple the energy requirements of other type of
uses. The former combined with the fact that Tokyo is a tertiary sector based economy
evidences the importance of making climate change and energy policies oriented towards
the business sector. Furthermore, the recent evolution of total energy consumption by sector
shows an increase relative importance of the business sector.
Computer buildings
Hospitals
Schools
Hotels
Offices
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Transport
Tokyo high vehicle ownership rates (308 vehicles/ 1000 persons) might give the wrong
impression of transportation choices of this megacity. In reality, although there are many
vehicle owners, most of the population (75%) uses public transportation for work-school
commuting and only 6% use only their personal vehicle to commute. Bicycle and walking
also take a big share of the modal split and awkwardly the share of bus transportation is
quite small.
All sectors
In absolute terms the energy needs for the transport sector have increased considerably in
the past two decades. This could be explained, in part, by the enlarged share of big engine
cars. For instance, the share of car with 2000 cc or more in Japan increased from 6% in
1990 to 27,5% in 1997. The extension of this trend is however doubtful in the new era of high
oil prices and climate change policies. In relative terms, the share of energy requirements of
the transport sector has been reduced from around 35% in 1990 to 28% in 2005. For the
same period the business sector has increased its share from 26 to 35%, the industrial
sector’s share has been reduced from 19% to 10% and the residential sector has passed
from 25% to 27% (see figure 7).
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Figure 7. Changes in total energy consumption by sectors (1990- 2005): Tokyo Metropolis
FY 2005
FY 2004
FY 1990
Source : http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/kouhou/english/master-plan/pdf/part2-chapter1-section1-1~2.pdf
This transition between energy needs in different sectors can also be evidenced in Figure 8,
showing the total energy mix (by energy source) of the city. The proportion of energy needs
supported on electricity has grown considerably (from 33% in 1995 to 40% in 2005) while the
proportion of fuel oil has been reduced from 41% in 1995 to 30%:
Figure 8. Changes in total energy consumption by source (1990- 2005): Tokyo Metropolis
2005
2004
2000
1990
Source: http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/kouhou/english/master-plan/pdf/part2-chapter1-section1-1~2.pdf
GHG Emissions
A general comparison between OCED countries, major non-OCDE countries and cities in
East Asia shows, that in terms of CO2 per unit and CO2 per capita, the overall performance of
Japanese cities is better. The performance of Tokyo alone is outstanding (Dhakal and
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Kaneko, 2009). Tokyo compactness and the predominance of public transportation make it
not only an energy efficient city but a relatively low carbon emission city.
2006 (FY)
2000 (FY)
1990 (FY)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
(Mt_CO2)
2005
2004
2000
1990
6
Prevention of Urban and Global Warming, TMG
07/09/2010 7
On the supply side, primary energy sources mix for electricity generation for the city of Tokyo
has suffered serious changes since late 60’s. The share of nuclear power has been
increased and the share of oil and coal has been reduced and replaced by gas. In addition,
projections for the year 2017 show a further decarbonisation of energy sources.
Figure 11. Generation capacity by energy source (TEPCO including purchased power)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
d)
)
65
73
75
85
95
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
ed
ne
nn
an
la
l
(p
(p
08
17
Hydro Geothermal LNG/LPG Other gases Oil Coal Nuclear
One additional element that must be taken into account when analyzing emissions and
energy use in the city of Tokyo is the urban heat island effect. This is one of the down factors
of being a compact city. Even though it is difficult (or impossible) to asses which share of the
increase temperature is due to climate change and which share is due to the heat island
effect, both phenomenon’s together have had serious consequences. In the past century
(1908-2008) temperatures inside the city have risen by 3.2 °C. Urban heat island effect
generates a vicious circle: higher temperatures create a bigger need of air conditioning which
reinforces the urban heat island phenomena.
2. Policies
Japan’s Carbon Dioxide distribution of emissions differs from Tokyo’s distribution. For
instance, the highest shares of emissions in the whole country correspond to the industrial
sector followed by the transport sector. This mismatch between shares of emissions might be
an additional problem when trying to pass from national to local energy and climate change
policies. While the government might concentrate its efforts on the industry sector, this type
of policy doesn’t make sense at Tokyo local scale.
07/09/2010 8
Figure 12. Japan’s Carbon Dioxide emissions by sector
Source: Kyoto Protocol Achievement Plan (Revised March 2008), Ministry of Environment
In terms of climate change Japan has set a series of short term policies based on the Kyoto
protocol objectives and long term policies for the post-Kyoto period. By the year 2012, Japan
is expected to reduce its GHG emission by 6% from the 1990 level according to its target set
by the Kyoto Protocol. However, by fiscal year 2006 CO2 emissions had already augmented
by 6,2% against base year. By the year 2007 GHG emissions had gone up by 9% against
base year partly due to the suspension of operation of the Kashiwasaki-Kariwa nuclear plant
that evidence some security concerns following the Niigata Chuetsu earthquake in July 2007.
The former make’s it particularly difficult for the country to achieve its current reduction
targets and fulfill its future objectives, set by the new prime minister to achieve a diminution
by half from the present level by 20507. Furthermore, Japan’s energy mix continues to be
highly dependent on fossil fuels, specially oil and coal (
Figure 13 ) and Japan is the according to statistics the least energy intensity country in the
world (Primary energy/GDP)8.
On the demand side, Japan has introduced a series of legislation to introduce energy
efficiency in each sector of the economy. The Energy Conservation Act (Act on the Rational
Use of Energy), promoted at the national level, requires large factories and other business
establishments to conduct systematic voluntary energy management by obligating them to
periodically report on the status of their energy use and formulate and submit medium-term
plans for achieving energy conservation targets. In addition, it obligates the submission of the
notification of energy conservation measures on the occasion of new construction,
expansion, renovation and large-scale repair of buildings larger than a certain size. Under
the same law, the energy efficiency standards for home electric appliances and vehicles
7
Others : Fukuda Vision (2008) : don’t really know its base, and Cool Earth 50
8
« Energy in Japan » Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
07/09/2010 9
have been set based on the top-runner system, which requires standards to be set at the
levels of the most energy-efficient products that are available at the time, and manufacturers
are obligated to comply with these standards.
On the supply side, Japan’s government has introduced legislation to increase the use of non
fossil energies. The New Energy Usage Act (Act on Special Measures concerning New
Energy Use by Electric Utilities) is meant to encourage the use of new energy in order to
secure stable and appropriate supply of energy by obligating electric power companies to
use electricity generated by new energy in a proportion exceeding the prescribed level
according to the amount of their electricity sales. A subsidy scheme has been introduced in
order to expand solar photovoltaic (PV) power for the installation of household-use solar PV
power generation systems and a new system of purchasing surplus electricity generated by
such systems under which the purchase price has been roughly doubled from the previous
level has been launched. It is also considering the specifics of a system for the purchase of
all electricity generated by not only solar PV power but also various other types of renewable
energy.
Since having an accurate emissions inventory and processes to control targets is essential,
the national government has also introduced the Act concerning the Promotion of the
Measures to Cope with Global Warming, in which business operators that emit a large
amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) are obligated to calculate and report their own emission
amount to the national government. This Act also concerns the formulation of a plan for
achieve targets under the Kyoto Protocol and must specify the basic matters related to
measures that should be taken by the national government, local governments, business
operators and citizens to reduce GHG emissions.
Figure 14 shows the instruments and sectors used for policy making in Japan during the past
34 years. For instance, renewable energy policies are mostly implemented through
07/09/2010 10
subsidies/incentives and backed up by research and development financing. On the other
side, energy efficiency policies are mostly based in education and outreach or regulatory
instruments.
Figure 14. Climate change, renewable energy and energy efficiency policies in Japan (Instruments and
sectors)
Climate change policies (by target) Climate change policies (by instrument)
Renewable energy policies (by sector) Renewable energy policies (by instrument)
Energy Efficiency policies (by target) Energy Efficiency policies (by instrument)
As Japan, Tokyo has established its own targets of CO2 emission reduction and energy
associated policies. Tokyo Climate Change Strategy proposes a reduction of 25% of the CO2
07/09/2010 11
emissions by 2020 from the 2000 level which leads to about 20% when compared to 1990
level.
Tokyo Climate Change Strategy is divided into five initiatives and main activities for climate
change mitigation. Turning Tokyo into a low carbon society is base on two principles:
reducing energy consumption by implementing energy conservation measures and using
passive energy and strive to use renewable energies and unutilized energies in a
positive manner. The following box presents a brief description of the policy package for
Tokyo.
As 37% of the emissions are concentrated in the business sector Tokyo Metropolitan
Government imposes stricter regulations than those of the central government, particularly in
large facilities. Existing buildings are obliged to reduce their emissions and enter the
emission trading program while new buildings need to comply with thermal insulation
performances and energy-saving performances.
Tokyo Emission Trading System is applicable only to those business establishments whose
annual usage of fuels, heat and electricity is 1,500 kL or larger on a crude oil equivalent
basis. It is the first urban cap and trade system and will cover around 1400 installation of
07/09/2010 12
which 1100 are business facilities and the remaining are industries facilities. Starting in April
2010 and following two compliance periods (2010-2014 & 2015-2019), Tokyo’s ETS is
planned to reduce emissions by around 17% from the base year’s level. Allowances are
allocated following grandfathering principle. Participants are required to report their verified
emissions to Tokyo Metropolitan Government. Banking is allowed but borrowing is not. A
Monetary fine will be imposed (500.000 yens) when violating orders and fact of violation will
be released to the public
The sector-by sector emission reduction targets for Tokyo Metropolis according to master
plan are the following9:
Achievements
Since 2002, the TMG has been operating the Planning System for Measures against Global
Warming, making it mandatory for large business establishments to calculate and report the
amount of their GHG emissions and set and announce reduction targets. In 2005, the TMG
also started to provide guidance related to reduction efforts, evaluate reduction plans and
announce the results of the evaluation.
In 2005, the TMG formulated a global warming control program, under which the TMG is
making efforts to reduce GHG emissions; for example, TMG-owned facilities are actively
installing energy-efficient equipment and introducing renewable energy. In order to lead
actions by example the TMG has been releasing official announcement regarding GHG
emissions from its own facilities every year since 2000. Furthermore, TMG formulated the
“Global Warming Control Program” in 2005 with a goal to reduce the GHG emission level by
10% in 2009 compared with the 2004 level. See Table 2 for achievements in terms of GHG
reductions.
9
http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/kouhou/english/master-plan/pdf/part2-chapter1-section1-1~2.pdf
07/09/2010 13
3. Road maps
Figure 15 shows how the main energy application emission sources in office and commerce
buildings are heat conveyance, lighting and air conditioning. While replacing incandescent
lights for LED is an easy and negative cost measure, adapting air conditioning and heating
devices requires a more technical approach and bigger investments.
Figure 15. CO2 emissions from buildings for business use in breakdown by energy application
Office Commerce
elevator
water supply and 3% kitchen
drainage elevator 12%
2% 2% water supply and
ventilation drainage
6% 1% heat source for
air conditioning
ventilation
heat source for 32%
1%
wall outlet air conditioning
21% 30%
wall outlet
8%
10
Results depend on the conditions : building size, use, load, etc.
07/09/2010 14
business sector but a basic component of Tokyo Climate Change Strategy to achieve
emissions reduction objectives.
Figure 16. Measure for reduction in CO2 emissions from buildings for business use
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Heat source for air conditioning: reduction in loads and adoption of heat pumps
Heat conveyance: large temperature difference and rotation control of pumps and fans
Lighting: adoption of high-efficiency lighting equipment
Wall outlet: adoption of energy-saving equipment
Ventilation: CO2 concentration control of ventilation in parking lots
Source: TEPCO , workshop 2009
Even though the city of Tokyo transportation modal split is an energy efficient model,
transportation emission policies still need to be envisioned as a part of the climate change
challenge. With 43% of commuting done through the railway system, having cleaner
energies on the supply side is without a doubt fundamental.
On passenger cars, fuel efficiency has improved considerably thanks to the development of
new technologies by vehicle manufacturers. However, high fuel efficient vehicles, like hybrid
cars still represent a minority. Of a total of 3’280.000 passenger cars registered in the
Metropolis only 0.6% or 20.000 units are hybrids. With this in mind, one of the main policies
on the transport sector is carbon reduction by utilizing electric vehicles.
A set of combined actions will probably be needed to reduce emissions in the transport
sector11:
- Promotion of the diffusion of next-generation vehicles (Electric Vehicles and Plug-in-
Hybrid Vehicles)
- Promotion of eco-driving
- Promotion of use and introduction of fuel-efficient vehicles
- Reduction of vehicle traffic
11
Proposed by WEC- Japon
07/09/2010 15
Some of the instruments of use to induce these actions12:
- Subsidy schemes for the purchase of next-generation vehicles and the installation of
rapid-recharge chargers and the establishment of partnership with relevant
companies
- Holding of lecture sessions in cooperation with wards, cities, towns and villages and
other organization and the formulation and announcement of manuals
- Specification in writing of the obligation for introduction of energy efficient equipment
and the obligation for making emission reduction efforts through the enactment of
ordinances
- Trial introduction of the park-and-ride and car-sharing arrangements
Greening of energy
To achieve the objective of being a low carbon society, Tokyo needs to assure the supply of
electric power of low CO2 emission intensity. Three different strategies towards cleaner
energy supply are being implemented by TEPCO, covering nuclear power, the improvement
of thermal efficiency in power generation and the dissemination of renewable energies. While
the TMG has not formulated any plan from the perspective of future stable supply of energy it
is striving to create a low-carbon city by implementing measures to reduce energy
consumption and introducing more renewable energy. These measures are based on the
Tokyo Environmental Master Plan, which was formulated in March 2008.
As nuclear energy is also a trump card for simultaneous achievement of stable supply, cost
efficiency and environmental friendliness, nuclear power generation will be actively
promoted. Even though TEPCO’s nuclear power utilization rate decreased to 44.9% from
74.2% in FY2007 due to the impact of shutdown of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power
Station; projections is to expand the share of nuclear power to cover 48% of TEPCO’s
energy demand by 2020.
On the other side, the approaches to improve the thermal efficiency of thermal power
generation are underway. By introducing and expanding the use of highly efficient equipment
TEPCO has achieved supremacy in comparison with other countries thermal power
generation efficiency.
12
Proposed by WEC- Japon
07/09/2010 16
Figure 17. International comparison of thermal power generation efficiency
50
45
40
35
30
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
O
lia
ea
d
es
y
A
n
a
e
a
an
an
pa
nc
di
in
PC
S
ra
tri
r
U
Ch
In
Ko
m
el
a
Ja
un
ut
TE
Fr
/Ir
er
As
co
K
G
ut
U
c
So
di
or
N
Source: ECOFYS ‘Comparison of Efficiency Fossil Power Generation”
(Notes): thermal efficiency values represent weighted average thermal efficiencies of coal, oil, and gas on the power generating
end (LHV Standard). The thermal efficiency of independent power generation equipments I not included. The figure for TEPCO
is FY2007 result. Other figures are 2004 values.
To increase the share of renewables in energy mix Tokyo has a set of projects in progress.
Large-scale business operators which emit large amount of GHG will be obligated to reduce
their emissions in a systematic manner under the mandatory emission reduction program.
Although small and medium-size enterprises should make reduction efforts on a voluntary
07/09/2010 17
basis, the TMG supports them through tax reduction and loan programs. Companies that
have failed to fulfill their emission reduction obligation are subject to penalties, including the
payment of a fine, the announcement of their names and the payment of the cost of
purchasing emissions credits necessary for the fulfillment of the obligation. These penalties
ensure the effectiveness of the mandatory emission reduction program. The rate of
mandatory reduction is calculated on the basis of the past records of emissions and the
status of introduction of energy-efficient equipment at each business establishment.
Regarding the diffusion of equipment using solar energy, the TMG, companies and NGOs
are cooperating in implementing projects to raise awareness among citizens. According to
materials prepared by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the initial cost related to
the installation of a solar PV power generation system at a new house can be recovered in
around 10 years through the use of the subsidy scheme. Funds totaling \9 billion over a two-
year period have been secured for the subsidy scheme for the introduction of equipment
using solar energy. In addition, the TMG has established a subsidy scheme for the purchase
of household-use equipment using solar energy in order to promote the introduction of
renewable energy. It is also promoting the effective use of unused energy.
Regarding the subsidy for equipment using solar energy, the national government as well as
wards and cities have created a subsidy scheme similar to the TMG’s scheme. By using
these schemes, the initial cost related to the installation of a solar PV power generation
system at a new house can be recovered in around 10 years through the use of the subsidy
schemes.
4. Discussion
It seems that climate change strategies in Tokyo were based mostly on voluntary
approaches and public defamation campaigns. When these proved to be insufficient more
restrictive policies were put into place. Also, with the introduction of the mandatory emission
reduction program, ahead of the national government, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is
resolved to lead national and global efforts to combat global warming by implementing
pioneering and highly effective reduction measures earlier than the national government. The
creation of an Emission Trading System for commercial buildings is an innovation at world
level. Furthermore, in the city of Tokyo one of the most promising technical solutions – Heat
Pumps – is not only being proposed but has been put into service.
In addition, under the Fukuda government (which was in place in 2007-2008), the long-term
national reduction target was set at a range of 60% to 80%. In order to achieve this it is
elemental that all possible actions for the promotion of energy conservation and introduction
of renewable energy in each of the industrial/commercial sector, household sector and
transport sector are implemented. The ETS system introduced in the commercial sector is in
particular important given the increased GHG emissions presented by this sector during the
past years which account for around 40% of the overall emissions.
07/09/2010 18