Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report March 2022

Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – March 2022
Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer (centre) doffs his academic cap to acknowledge Tran Thi Le
Dung (on right in red gown) for the award of the degree Doctor of Philosophy (Phd), University
of New South Wales at ceremonies held in Sydney on 24 March. On left is the Deputy Vice
Chancelor (in gold and black gown).
After graduation ceremonies at The University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney, 24 March
2022 for two of my PhD students: from left: Dr. Vu Lam, Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer, Dr.
Tran Thi Le Dung. Red is the colour of UNSW doctoral gown, blue is the colour of the Australian
National University doctoral gown.
Publications Completed (in press forthcming)

“The Role of the Military and Public Security in Contemporary Vietnam,” in Jonathan London,
ed., Handbook of Contemporary Vietnam (Routledge, 2022), chapter 6.
“Vietnam in 2021: Leadership Transition, Party-Building, and Combatting COVID-19,” in Daljit
Singh, eds. Southeast Asian Affairs 2021 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, April
2022).
2
International Conference Papers

“Geopolitics: U.S. Responses to China's Economic Inducements and Grey Zone Operations -
Implications for Vietnam,” Presentation to Vietnam Access Days conference hosted by Viet
Capital Securities Joint Stock Company, Ho Chi Minh City, March 15-17, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/564890080/Thayer-Geopolitics-U-S-Responses-to-
China-s-Economic-Inducements-and-Grey-Zone-Operations-Implications-for-Vietnam.
“The Situation in Ukraine and its Implications for Global Security,” Webinar hosted by the
National Resilience College, National Centre of Defence Studies, Putrajaya, Malaysia, March
16, 2022. https://www.scribd.com/document/564957589/Thayer-The-Situation-in-Ukraine-
and-its-Implications-for-Global-Security.
Peer Review Journal Article

“Understanding Vietnam’s Strategic Thinking on National Security and Artificial
Intelligence,” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. Submitted 17 March 2022.
Background Briefs (5)

1. Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report February 2022, March 6, 2022.
https://www.scribd.com/document/562909186/Thayer-Consultancy-Monthly-Report-
February-2022.
2. Thayer Publications on the Soviet Union/Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific and
Relations with Vietnam, 1984-2022, March 9, 2022.
https://www.scribd.com/document/563474634/Thayer-Publications-on-Vietnam-s-
Relations-With-Soviet-Union-Russian-Federation.
3. “Biden’s U.S.-ASEAN Summit and Viet Nam’s Prime Minister,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, March 10, 2022. https://www.scribd.com/document/564263422/Thayer-
Biden-s-U-S-ASEAN-Summit-and-Viet-Nam-s-Prime-Minister.
4. “Are There Lessons from the War in Ukraine Applicable to Asia?” Thayer Consultancy
Are-There-Lessons-From-the-War-in-Ukraine-Applicable-to-Asia.
5. “The Elusive U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit: A Chronology,” Thayer Consultancy
The-Elusive-U-S-ASEAN-Special-Summit-A-Choronology.
Media Interviews (9)

1. Ralph Jennings, Voice of America, San Francisco, March 2, 2022.
2. Mark Barnes, The Business Times (Singapore), March 2, 2022.
3. Tuan Dao, Vietnam Panorama, March 10, 2022.
4. John Boudreau, Bloomberg News, Hanoi, March 14, 2022.
3
5. Đo Minh Quang, Phòng Quốc tế, Ban Thời sự, Đài Truyền hình Việt Nam, VTV1,Hanoi,
March 19, 2022.
6. Nguyen T. Son, Radio Free Asia, Washington, March 21, 2022.
7. Rodrigo Rodriguez-Morales, Reporter, Testigo Directo (Direct Witness) Program,
Rafael Poveda TV, Bogata, Colombia, March 22, 2022.
8. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, Tokyo, March 22, 2022.
9. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, Tokyo March 30, 2022.
Thayer In the Media March 2022

Interviews: 9
Trending: China-Ukraine war (2), US-Vietnam relations (2), Vietnam-Ukraine war (2)
Australia-US defence cooperation, South China Sea, Vietnam-COVID
Radio interviews: Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, Voice of America

TV interviews: Rafael Poveda TV (Bogata), VTV1 (Vietnam National Television)
Media interviews: Bloomberg News, Business Times (Singapore), Stars & Stripes (2), The
Straits Times, Vietnam Panorama
Quoted by: The Epoch Times, Hanoi Times, The News Lense, Vietnam Investment Review,
VietnamNet, Vietnam New Brief Service
Russia's closest friend in South-east Asia lies low amid Ukraine war
"Officially, I think the government is between a rock and a hard place," said Australia-based
analyst Carl Thayer. Vietnam and Russia have an "extensive relationship", he pointed out.
"Vietnam is heavily reliant (on Russia) for technology, for modernisation, and all its big ticket
items from the late 1990s to the present - from new-generation aircraft to frigates to
submarines without the Russian connection, Vietnam is not self-reliant in defence," he
noted…
"The bottom line is that Vietnam is keeping its head below the parapet," said Emeritus
Professor Thayer.
Tan Hui Yee, The Straits Times, March 1, 2022
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/russias-closest-friend-in-south-east-asia-lies-
low-amid-ukraine-war.
4
China Positions Itself as Mediator Between Russia, Ukraine

Any effort to stop the Ukraine war "improves China's position from being just a passive actor
to showing some leadership role," said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the
University of New South Wales in Australia.
"The longer it [China] stays quiet, the more it undermines the already hard work that China
has put in to portray itself as a responsible global leader," he said…
Successful mediation would particularly help China "win kudos with Europe," Thayer said.
That relationship, he said, could lead to more pan-Eurasian trade. In 2020, China was the
third-largest partner for European Union exports and the largest partner for EU imports.
Ralph Jennings, Voice of America, March 2, 2022.
https://www.voanews.com/a/china-positions-itself-as-mediator-between-russia-
ukraine/6467503.html.
Reprinted:
The News Lense, March 3, 2021
https://international.thenewslens.com/article/163524
China’s Propaganda on Ukraine Seeps into Western Mainstream Media

Professor Carlyle Thayer at the University of New South Wales confirmed in an email, “There
were small bits of land that China retained for tactical reasons” after the 1979 war.
Thayer is skeptical, however, of claims by some of my sources that China had a colony within
Vietnam from 1975 to 1977 of about 3,000 people, and started a parallel government in the
strategically central district of Bao Lac. China comes close to this in Burma today, so the claims
should be further investigated…
Anders Corr, The Epoch Times, March 2, 2022
https://global-factiva-
com.wwwproxy1.library.unsw.edu.au/ha/default.aspx#./!?&_suid=16462970970020675674
9283751433
Mark Barnes, Vietnam's economic, security interests at odds in battle for Ukraine
5 March 2022
Business Times Singapore
But Vietnam is unlikely to wade into the political fray over the conflict, said Carlyle Thayer,
Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of New South Wales.
5
Vietnam, which has its own storied past with US sanctions, has taken the position that
sanctions should not be issued unilaterally and that it would only agree to sanctions that
were authorised by the UN, Thayer said.
He also notes that Vietnam's national security interests are intricately interlinked with those
of Russia.
Russia is one of Vietnam's 3 "comprehensive strategic partners" together with China and
India.
Vietnam and Russia have stayed close for decades after shared communist ideologies
brought them together early last century. Those ties have held strong even after the
collapse of the then-USSR and Vietnam's shift to a market-oriented economy.
"About 85 per cent of weapons and arms and military technology that Vietnam imports is
from Russia. There is a legacy system that will be difficult to break. You just can't replace it
with American or European parts," Thayer said. "At the end of the day, it's not in Vietnam's
interest to see Russia weakened."
Vietnam's government has so far said very little about the conflict in Ukraine other than to
urge restraint and is unlikely to say much more given the precarious position it has found
itself in. Thayer noted that staying relatively neutral could have been much more difficult.
"Vietnam can count its blessings that its term as a non-permanent member of the UN
Security Council expired last year so they didn't have to come off the fence," he said.
Vietnam after one year of vaccination: Facts and figures

Explaining the change in the pandemic response policy, Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the
University of New South Wales (UNSW), Canberra said Vietnam abandoned its Zero Covid-19
policy following a recommendation from the National Steering Committee for Covid-19
Prevention and Control that this goal was unrealistic if not impossible to achieve while the
Delta variant was active. Another factor weighing on this decision was the financial impact of
a prolonged lockdown on the economy and associated mental health issues.
Source: Hanoi Times, Vietnamnet, March 9, 2022.
https://vietnamnet.vn/en/society/vietnam-after-one-year-of-vaccination-facts-and-figures-
821463.html
Economic Issues, Ukraine Crisis Likely to Dominate U.S. Pres.-Vietnam PM Talks

Economic issues and the Ukraine crisis are likely to dominate the one-on-one talks between
U.S. President Joe Biden and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on the sidelines
6
of the ASEAN-U.S. Summit in Washington D.C. later this month, said Carlyle A. Thayer,
Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales.
The U.S.-ASEAN Summit provides an opportunity for one-on-one meetings between President
Biden and ASEAN leaders, including Vietnamese PM Pham Minh Chinh, Prof. Thayer told
Vietnam Panorama in an emailed interview.
The upcoming meeting comes in after President Biden has been in office for a year and has
just released the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States that considers Vietnam one of the
top five priority countries for the Biden administration. “Scheduling a U.S.-ASEAN summit is
part of the U.S. commitment to stay engaged in the region,” said Prof. Thayer.
The ASEAN expert expected PM Chinh to show his keenness about Mr. Biden’s forthcoming
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and what role Vietnam could play. Mr. Chinh is already on
record as supporting a new updated framework for economic and trade cooperation, he
added. PM Chinh is likely to offer Vietnam’s cooperation and support to increase the role of
American companies and investors in Vietnam.
The Vietnamese PM will also welcome continued U.S. assistance combatting COVID-19,
maritime safety and security, human resource development and education and training,
climate change, cyber security, the digital economy, science and technology, and the legacy
of war.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss the most pressing challenges and opportunities
in international affairs including the conflict in Ukraine, relations with China, and the
possibility of initiating discussions on raising bilateral relations to a higher level, Prof. Thayer
added.
The summit, the second of its kind between a U.S. president and ASEAN leaders, is scheduled
for March 28-29, after the first in 2016 under the Obama administration. A similar gathering
was planned by the Trump administration for March 2020, but was postponed due to
coronavirus fears.
Reuters reported on March 10 that this year’s meeting has been postponed because some
ASEAN leaders cannot attend the meeting on the proposed dates and organizers will seek a
new date. An Asian diplomat said that the summit was still on and the dates were unchanged.
Vietnam Panorama News & Market Research, March 11, 2022
Reprinted:
Vietnam New Brief Service, March 12 2022
DOW JONES FACTIVA
US amplifies bilateral ASEAN priorities

Explaining why Vietnam is so important to the US, Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the
University of New South Wales, said that since the Obama administration, every US national
security strategy has identified Vietnam as a key potential security partner of the US. This was
also true for the Trump administration.
“Under the Biden administration, developing a partnership with Vietnam is a key priority,”
Thayer said. “Vietnam is important to the US because it also plays a constructive role in ASEAN
and is well-respected by the international community as evidenced by its election twice as a
7
non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Hanoi also served as the venue for
President Trump’s second summit with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un in early 2019.”
Nguyen Dat, Vietnam Investment Review, March 16, 2022
Dow Jones FACTIVA
Biển Đông: Tư lệnh Mỹ nói Trung Quốc đã quân sự hoá hoàn toàn ít nhất ba đảo nhân tạo
South China Sea: US commander says China has completely militarized at least three
artificial islands
Tuy phía Mỹ không nêu cụ thể ba đảo nhân tạo mà Trung Quốc đã quân sự hoá toàn toàn,
nhưng theo Giáo sư Carlyle Thayer từ đại học New South Wales, nước Úc thì ba đảo nhân
tạo đó có thể là đá Xu Bi, đá Chữ Thập, và đá Vành Khăn, đều thuộc quần đảo Trường Sa,
nơi đang có tranh chấp giữa Trung Quốc và các nước láng giềng bao gồm Việt Nam,
Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia và Đài Loan…
Trả lời câu hỏi về vai trò của các căn cứ quân sự này đối với Trung Quốc và mối đe doạ
mà nó tạo ra cho Việt Nam, Giáo sư Carlyle Thayer nói:
“Chúng trao cho Trung Quốc năng lực nhận biết phạm vi hàng hải, có nghĩa là không có
thứ gì đi trên vùng biển này, bay qua vùng trời này, hay thậm chí đi dưới mặt nước ở
vùng biển này mà có thể thoát khỏi sự giám sát của Trung Quốc, và sẽ bị Trung Quốc
nhắm đến.
Điều đấy cũng có nghĩa là máy bay quân sự của Việt Nam sẽ có thể bị bắn hạ khi xung đột
xảy ra.”
Giáo sư Carlyle Thayer cũng cho rằng với những căn cứ hiện tại, đặc biệt là các căn cứ có
đường băng dài, Trung Quốc có thể triển khai máy bay chiến đấu và thực hiện thiết lập
khu vực nhận dạng phòng không nếu muốn.
Thông tin Trung Quốc quân sự hoá các đảo nhân tạo mà họ bồi lấp trên Biển Đông không
còn mới mẻ, truyền thông quốc tế đã đưa tin về vấn đề này trong những năm qua, vấn đề
là tại sao ở thời điểm này phía Hoa Kỳ lại lên tiếng với vẻ báo động như vậy?
Vấn đề nằm ở cuộc chiến đang diễn ra giữa Nga và Ukraine, theo giáo sư Thayer:
“Tôi nghĩ rằng bởi vì hiện đang có chiến tranh giữa Nga và Ukraine, khi mà các hệ thống
tên lửa hiện đại đang được Nga sử dụng để tấn công các mục tiêu ở Ukraine, điều đó kéo
theo sự chú ý vào kho tên lửa mà Trung Quốc đang sở hữu. Đây cũng có thể là chiêu bài
của Hoa Kỳ để ngăn cản Trung Quốc chuyển giao vũ khí cho Nga, và tố cáo việc Trung
Quốc triển khai chúng ở Biển Đông.”..
Hành vi quân sự hoá các thực thể ở trên Biển Đông của Trung Quốc được cho là đã vi
phạm Tuyên bố ứng xử trên biển Đông- DOC, mà Trung quốc và một số quốc gia ASEAN
cùng nhau ký hồi năm 2002.
Điều này, theo giáo sư Carlyle Thayer sẽ khiến các quốc gia trong khu vực mất đi sự tin
tưởng vào Trung Quốc, trong bối cảnh các bên đang nỗ lực đàm phán việc xây dựng Bộ
Quy tắc Ứng xử ở Biển Đông (COC).
Radio Free Asia, Vietnamese, March 21, 2022
8
https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/news/vietnamnews/us-indo-pacific-commander-says-
that-china-has-completely-militarization-at-least-three-artificial-islands-
03212022084134.html.
New Australian submarine base could support US warships, experts say

HMAS Sterling will continue to launch patrols into the Indian Ocean while submarines
operating out of the new facility could patrol into the South China Sea and around Taiwan,
Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales and lecturer at
the Australian Defence Force Academy, said by phone Thursday.
Seth Robson, Stars & Stripes, March 31, 2022
https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2022-03-31/australia-nuclear-submarines-us-
navy-china-solomons-morrison-5535077.html

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Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report – March 2022

Publications Completed (in press forthcming)

International Conference Papers

Peer Review Journal Article

Background Briefs (5)

Media Interviews (9)

Thayer In the Media March 2022

Radio interviews: Radio Free Asia Vietnamese, Voice of America

China Positions Itself as Mediator Between Russia, Ukraine

China’s Propaganda on Ukraine Seeps into Western Mainstream Media

Business Times Singapore

Vietnam after one year of vaccination: Facts and figures

Economic Issues, Ukraine Crisis Likely to Dominate U.S. Pres.-Vietnam PM Talks

US amplifies bilateral ASEAN priorities

New Australian submarine base could support US warships, experts say

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