Module in DECISION MAKING TOOLS
Module in DECISION MAKING TOOLS
Module in DECISION MAKING TOOLS
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LEARN
ING
OBJEC
TIVES
By the end of the session, participants will be able to:
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Pre-Learning
Activity
What is
Decision
Decision-making is the thought process we use
to choose the best solution from all available
options.
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PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISION MAKING
Problem solving and decision-making are important skills for business and
life. Problem solving often involves decision-making, and decision-making is
especially important for management and leadership.
But how can we solve a problem? If we don’t know what’s the problem is.
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4. Identify the best alternative. —the project team should establish the best tool or
technique for that specific problem or objective of the project.
5. Develop and implement a plan of action. —Perform the chosen technique and
implement the process and procedures. It is putting the project plan into action.
6. Evaluate and monitor the solution and examine feedback when necessary. —
Lastly, always check the progress of your project, as possible assess periodically.
And if necessary, make improvements.
DECISION
PARETO
ANALYSIS
Pareto analysis is a formal technique for finding the changes that will give the
biggest benefits. It is useful where many possible courses of action are competing
for your attention. It uses the classic 80/20 rule, wherein it premised from the idea
that 80% of a project’s benefit can be achieved by doing 20% of the work.
The purpose of this analysis is to observe the problems and determine their
frequency of occurrence. This, in turn, gives you the information you need to
prioritize your effort to ensure you are spending your time where it will have the
most positive impact.
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6. Take Action- finally, take action; taking consideration the highest
scoring problem will likely have the biggest payoff once fixes, so start
solving this one first. And so on.
PAIRED COMPARISON
ANALYSIS
This helps you work out the importance of a number of options relative to
each other. It is particularly useful where you do not have objective data on
which to base this decision.
This tool helps you compare ideas in pairs. You have to compare one idea
with the other send evaluate which of the 2 is better. Hats because it is
called paired comparison.
Also, comparison analysis is based only on your view, all your current
knowledge about the potential of both ideas. You may or may not have
actual data for your views.
1. List the options you will compare. Assign a letter to each option.
2. Mark the options as row and column headings on the worksheet. This is
so that you can compare options with one another.
3. Compare the option in the row with the option in the column. decide
which of the two options is most important, and write down the letter of
the most important option in the cell.
4. The cells on the table where you will be duplicating a comparison are
also blocked out.
5. Within the remaining cells compare the option in the row with the one
in the column. For each cell, decide which of the two options is more
important. Write down the letter of the more important option in the cell,
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and score the difference in importance from 0 (no difference) to 3 (major
difference).
6. Finally, consolidate the results by adding up the total of all the values for
each of the options. You may want to convert these values into a percentage
of the total score.
GRID
ANALYSI
SGRID ANALYSIS/ DECISION MATRIX ANALYSIS- This is a framework for
evaluating ideas and making decisions which uses a set of weighted criteria to rank
the ideas. This is also a systematic, quantitative, and visual approach to making
strategic business decisions.
NOMINAL GROUP
TECHNIQUE
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The nominal group technique is used for a meeting with a small group of
participants with the aim of producing and prioritizing ideas about a particular
topic. The technique supports planners and managers in engaging selected
stakeholders to participate in a productive dialogue and to generate ideas before
decisions are made or programs are developed. Furthermore, the nominal group
technique is used to support consensus planning for the purpose of prioritizing
issues. In addition, this technique can be applied when you want to assure all
members participate freely without negative influence from other participants.
The facilitator first describes how the meeting should be conducted and what is
expected of the participants. Then, the topic of the discussion is presented. It is
advisable to provide participants beforehand with detailed information on the
meeting, so that they are well prepared. The facilitator has to make sure that the
participants do clearly understand the issue and its question before moving on to
the second step.
Participants are given five minutes to individually and silently write down all of
their ideas for the question on the notepaper which is provided. Participants are
encouraged to be creative with their answers and not be restricted by budgetary
constraints or current regulations of the site. The facilitator should remind the
participants that this is a time for individual brainstorming and the participants
have to be instructed that everyone should remain quiet the entire time.
Step 3: Documentation
After the brainstorming session, each participant is asked to explain one of the
opportunities on his or her list. As the participant read his or her opportunity, the
note-taker writes down the opportunity exactly as stated. Statements are recorded
and assigned an individual number by the note-taker on flipchart paper in front of
the room. During this step, extensive discussion of an idea is discouraged unless
further clarification is necessary. Participants are encouraged to build upon each
other’s ideas and write down any new ideas as the meeting progressed.
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The facilitator goes around the room in a round-robin style until all participants’
lists are exhausted.
To help clarify and reduce any duplication of ideas, participants are asked to look
over all the statements listed on the flip chart paper posted around the room. In a
serialized fashion, each idea is discussed. If all participants agree to combine or
delete any opportunities, the note-taker combines or crosses out those items.
Step 5: Ranking
Participants are directed to look at the flipchart papers posted around the room
and asked to select and score their most preferred opportunities (e.g., with colored
stickers, or marks). After individually listing and ranking their top opportunities,
each participant then marks his or her scores next to the numbered opportunity
on the flipchart. Instead of marking scores directly onto the flipchart, a number of
different methods may be used, including filling out worksheets or colored with
the statement and importance score identified. Similarly, the exact number of
preferred ideas participants select is flexible and depends upon several factors,
including the number of ideas generated and the level of consensus needed. For
example, if participants only generate 15 ideas, then the top five is probably
sufficient.
Step 6: Compilation of Results to be use for the next phase of the decision-
making process.
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NOMINAL
ADVANTAGES GROUP DISADVANTAGES
TECHNIQUE
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MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS
Before you can get started on a multi-criteria analysis, you need to clearly define
the context of your analysis. The context accounts for the present situation, key
players, and stakeholders in the decision-making process. Advantages of a clearly
defined context are:
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This is why all the options need to be adjustable even though the analysis has
already started. Options are often formulated on a go/no-go basis. The
consequences tied to each option determine whether they lead to a go or no-go
decision.
3. Decide the objectives and select the right criteria that represent the value
Just choosing the right criteria won’t suffice to combine and analyze the different
scales of choice. One preference unit isn’t necessarily the same as another.
The weighting of different criteria therefore not only shows the difference between
options but also how relevant this difference is. For example, safety might weigh
less heavily on the buyer’s mind than maintenance costs, because he considers it
less important.
The relative priority scores are calculated. The general preference score is the
weighted average of all criteria.
The scores of each criterion are than added together. The total sum of which
comprises the preference score.
After calculating the totals, the outcomes can be ordered to see which option This
most suitable based on the different preference scores they’ve been given.
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Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) ADVANTAGES
The use of a multi-criteria analysis comes with various advantages when compared
to a decision-making tool not based on specific criteria:
Requires a higher level of effort than does some other analysis procedures
because information regarding each potential solution (intervention,
activity, and so on) is necessary for accurate comparisons. As a result,
additional time and resources may be required; therefore, you may prefer to
use this method only for high cost or high-priority needs.
The multicriteria analysis process can be manipulated by only selecting
comparison variables that favor a preferred activity. Or other participants
can manipulate their weightings on variables so they produce the results
they desire. Such challenges can be controlled, but you have to be aware of
the risk in order to ensure that this manipulation doesn’t happen to you.
• Don’t get carried away with adding too many variables to the comparison. It is
best to stick to the top five or six highest-priority variables and then to collect valid
information for each alternative intervention or activity
. • Remember that no rule says you can select only one activity or solution. As you
complete the analysis, keep in mind that a combination of one, two, three, or more
potential activities or solutions may be the right choice for your organization and
the identified need.
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• As another alternative, ask participants to choose from options that include
different levels of performance characteristics (for example, would you choose a
solution that achieves 80 percent of the desired results over the next three years if
it costs twice as much as the solution that achieves 50 percent of the desired
results?). Each question in this format should include at least two of the
performance characteristics at opposing levels so that you can move participants
toward making a decision about which are the higher-priority characteristics in
relation to the others. This procedure is an adaptation of analytic hierarchy
process, another form of multicriteria analysis.
TABLETOP ANALYZES
Tabletop analyses are a facilitator –led based discussions that used in wide
variety of settings to identify gaps, performance deficiencies, and
communication problems in a system
And are discussion-based sessions where team members meet in an
informal, classroom setting to discuss their roles during an emergency and
their responses to a particular emergency situation. ... Full-scale exercises are
conducted by public agencies. They often include participation from local
businesses.
To conduct a tabletop analysis here are the steps to remember:
1. n (a) systematically work through, discuss, and refine the problem focus; -
determine the specific scope by focusing on what functions or elements should be
analyzed
(b) develop a strategy for analyzing the problem; -facilitate a discussion by
discussing the specific types of information required to answer the key unknowns
about the problem
(c) collect data on the basis of the analysis plan; -
(d) analyze the data to determine the specific performance gaps;
and (e) identify potential solutions for the performance gap. —solutions should be
aligned with the original purpose of the discussions.
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ADVANTAGES of tabletop analysis:
1. Low-cost ---You do not require access to a lot of resources to conduct a
tabletop analysis. This technique is not expensive to use in terms of
material requirements.
2. Time requirements are minimal--• Tabletop analyses are usually
conducted over a time frame of only a few hours, so the time requirements
for participants are minimal. Note, however, that the time required to
effectively prepare and analyze the tabletop analysis is longer. •
3. Employee participants learn about the needs assessment process and key
issues (such as goals, gaps, actual, and ideals) through their active
participation and are, therefore, able to create awareness of such issues in
their on-the-job environment.1 •
4. Tabletop exercises generally require participants to review performance
related documents and to participate actively in discussions about the
performance environment. The tabletop analysis can, therefore, yield much
information in a short time span, potentially reducing the necessity for
extensive use of other techniques and tools to complete the needs
assessment.
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TIPS for success in conducting a tabletop analysis:
4. Develop and distribute materials about the goal, focus, and purpose
ahead for the scheduled activity of the tabletop analysis. These materials
will ensure that the tabletop analysis can get under way most efficiently.
5. Limit the length of each tabletop analysis session. Each session should
generally not last more than 3–4 hours.
6. Consider recording the actual tabletop analysis, thereby giving you the
option at a later date to revisit the information shared during the
activity. If you decide to record the session, make sure that you inform
all of the participants and that you identify a secure way of storing the
recorded data so that participants do not have to be concerned about
their participation in the tabletop analysis negatively affecting them
professionally.
7. Control the size of the group for the tabletop analysis. To be effective
and manageable, the size of the group of participants should generally
range from between 5 and 15 participants.
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PAIR-WISE COMPARISON
TECHNIQUE
This makes it easy to choose the most important problem to solve, or to pick the
solution that will be most effective. It also helps you set priorities where there are
conflicting demands on your resources.
The tool is particularly useful when you don't have objective data to use to make
your decision. It's also an ideal tool to use to compare different, subjective options,
for example, where you need to decide the relative importance of qualifications,
skills, experience, and teamworking ability when hiring people for a new role.
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ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF PAIR_WISE COMPARISON:
Advantages:
A pair-wise comparison is easily done and can be completed quickly during
a group discussion to progress toward a decision or recommendation.
Criteria for comparing options can remain informal, thereby letting
participants make judgments that are based on their experience and
expertise
Disadvantages:
Pair-wise comparisons do not provide the level of detail or sophistication of
a multicriteria analysis.
Although criteria for making comparisons are discussed within the group,
each participant may apply varying criteria (without public disclosure to
other group members) when making comparison.
The 2x2 Matrix is a decision support technique where plots options on a two-by-
The matrix diagram is a simple square divided into four equal quadrants. Each axis
represents a decision criterion, such as cost or effort. Each axis is divided into two
sections (for example low cost/high cost and easy/difficult). This makes it easy to
visualize the options that are low cost and easy, and low cost and hard.
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Process Overview of the 2x2 Matrix Decision Aids:
1. Create either a list of the needs (or gaps in results) that were already identified
in the needs assessment process or a list of the potential activities (or solutions)
that you are considering as recommendations that are based on the needs
identified during the assessment. It is best not to mix the two (needs and
solutions). If you want to gain perspectives on both the prioritization of the needs
and the prioritization of potential interventions, then conduct two separate
applications of the 2 × 2 matrix decision aid.
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where needs assessment data are simply used to confirm preexisting perspectives
about what should be done.
Disadvantages:
• A 2 × 2 matrix decision aid can be more limited than other tools or techniques
(for example, SWOT or brainstorming) for generating ideas about what to do next.
• A 2 × 2 matrix decision aid typically requires that all stakeholders value the
perspectives and potential differences between groups within the organization
• The analysis of this technique is only as useful as the quality of information
available from the needs assessment.
• Identified comparative characteristics in each “cell” of the 2 × 2 matrix decision
aid are only listed, and not prioritized or given differentiating weights.
FISHBONE DIAGRAMS
A fishbone diagram is a visual way to look at cause and effect. It is a more
structured approach than some other tools available for brainstorming causes of a
problem (eg, the Five Whys tool). The problem or effect is displayed at the head or
mouth of the fish.
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Fishbone diagram process overview:
Step 1. Define the problem- The first step to solving any problem, and the key to
a successful fishbone diagram, is to correctly define the problem.
The first step to solving any problem, and the key to a successful fishbone diagram,
is to correctly define the problem. When a problem is clearly defined, it is easier to
identify causes that affect the metric directly. It also encourages evaluating data to
determine whether there is really a problem or not.
Once the problem has been properly defined, one must then decide what areas of
the problem or process are key to determining the actual cause.
Now that the areas are defined, we go through each one and try to determine all
the individual influences that can affect our output. We look at each category and
list everything that we can think of, which falls within it.
A fishbone diagram does not lead to solutions on its own. Further tools are needed
to identify the effect that each cause has on output, and ultimately select the
causes you want to control.
Advantages:
1.Fishbone diagrams permit a thoughtful analysis that avoids overlooking any
possible root causes for a need.
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3- By using a fishbone diagram, you are able to focus the group on the big picture
as to possible causes or factors influencing the problem or need.
4-Even after the need has been addressed, the fishbone diagram shows areas of
weakness that—once exposed—can be rectified before causing more sustained
difficulties.
Disadvantages
- The simplicity of a fishbone diagram can be both its strength and its weakness.
As a weakness, the simplicity of the fishbone diagram may make it difficult to
represent the truly interrelated nature of problems and causes in some very
complex situations.
Decide what
will be your
highest
Brainstorm a priority goals
list of for the family
experiences or within the
achievement year.
Gather the goals
family
together, grab
some paper
and some
marker
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“In every important decision we make, we will rarely have 100% of the information
needed for a good decision no matter how much you will research or wait. Definitely,
if you wait too long, you have a different problem and start all over. It is often said
that a wrong decision taken at the right time is better than the right decision taken at
References:
https://www.wesharescience.com/na/guidebook/Section%203B.pdf
https://www.fcps.net/cms/lib/KY01807169/Centricity/Domain/3962/Budget%20and
%20Staffing/decision_tools.pdf
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