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    Ten Trends To Watch in The Coming Year - The Economist

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    Ten Trends to Watch in the Coming Year _ the Economist

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    Ten Trends To Watch in The Coming Year - The Economist

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    The World Ahead 2022

    Ten trends to watch in the


    coming year
    A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead 2022”

    Nov 8th 2021


    BY TOM STANDAGE: EDITOR, THE
    WORLD AHEAD 2022
    I f 2021 was the year the world turned the tide against the pandemic,
    2022 will be dominated by the need to adjust to new realities, both in
    areas reshaped by the crisis (the new world of work, the future of travel)
    and as deeper trends reassert themselves (the rise of China, accelerating
    climate change). Here are ten themes and trends to watch in the year
    ahead.

    1 Democracy v autocracy. America’s mid-term elections and China’s


    Communist Party congress will vividly contrast their rival political
    systems. Which is better at delivering stability, growth and innovation?
    This rivalry will play out in everything from trade to tech regulation,
    vaccinations to space stations. As President Joe Biden tries to rally the free
    world under the ag of democracy, his dysfunctional, divided country is a
    poor advertisement for its merits.

    2 Pandemic to endemic. New antiviral pills, improved antibody


    treatments and more vaccines are coming. For vaccinated folks in the
    developed world, the virus will no longer be life-threatening. But it will
    still pose a deadly danger in the developing world. Unless vaccinations can
    be stepped up, covid-19 will have become just another of the many
    endemic diseases that a ict the poor but not the rich.

    3 In ation worries. Supply-chain disruptions and a spike in energy


    demand have pushed up prices. Central bankers say it’s temporary, but not
    everyone believes them. Britain is at particular risk of stag ation, due to
    post-Brexit labour shortages and its dependence on expensive natural gas.

    4 The future of work. There is a broad consensus that the future is


    “hybrid”, and that more people will spend more days working from home.
    But there is much scope for disagreement on the details. How many days,
    and which ones? And will it be fair? Surveys show that women are less
    keen to return to the o ce, so they may risk being passed over for
    promotions. Debates also loom over tax rules and monitoring of remote
    workers.

    5 The new techlash. Regulators in America and Europe have been trying
    to rein in the tech giants for years, but have yet to make a dent in their
    growth or pro ts. Now China has taken the lead, lashing its tech rms in a
    brutal crackdown. President Xi Jinping wants them to focus on “deep tech”
    that provides geostrategic advantage, not frivolities like games and
    shopping. But will this boost Chinese innovation, or sti e the industry’s
    dynamism?

    “ The coming year will be dominated by the need to


    adjust to new, post-pandemic realities

    6 Crypto grows up. Like all disruptive technologies, cryptocurrencies are


    being domesticated as regulators tighten rules. Central banks are also
    looking to launch their own, centralised, digital currencies. The result is a
    three-way ght for the future of nance—between the crypto-blockchain-
    DeFi crowd, more traditional technology rms and central banks—that
    will intensify in 2022.

    7 Climate crunch. Even as wild res, heatwaves and oods increase in


    frequency, a striking lack of urgency prevails among policymakers when it
    comes to tackling climate change. Moreover, decarbonisation requires the
    West and China to co-operate, just as their geopolitical rivalry is
    deepening. Keep an eye on the solar-geoengineering research team at
    Harvard. In 2022, they want to test the use of a high-altitude balloon to
    release dust to dim sunlight—a technique that may, at this rate, be needed
    to buy the world more time to decarbonise.

    8 Travel trouble. Activity is picking up as economies reopen. But


    countries that pursued a zero-covid “suppression” strategy, such as
    Australia and New Zealand, face the tricky task of managing the transition
    to a world in which the virus is endemic. Meanwhile, as much as half of
    business travel is gone for good. That is good for the planet, but bad for
    tourists whose trips are subsidised by high-spending business travellers.

    9 Space races. 2022 will be the rst year in which more people go to space
    as paying passengers than government employees, carried aloft by rival
    space-tourism rms. China will nish its new space station. Film-makers
    are vying to make movies in zero-g. And nasa will crash a space probe into
    an asteroid, in a real-life mission that sounds like a Hollywood lm.

    10 Political footballs. The Winter Olympics in Beijing and the football


    World Cup in Qatar will be reminders of how sport can bring the world
    together—but also of how big sporting events often end up being political
    footballs. Expect protests directed at both host countries, though boycotts
    by national teams seem unlikely.

    The rapid development of mrna coronavirus vaccines, a bright spot in


    2021, drew on decades of work to create what looked like an overnight
    success. Which other emerging technologies might be about to burst into
    prominence? Our special section considers 22 candidates for 2022. Finally,
    this publication has a new name: The World in is now The World Ahead,
    which better positions us for the future. We hope that reading it will do the
    same for you.

    Tom Standage: Editor, The World Ahead 20227

    This article appeared in the From the editor section of the print edition of The
    World Ahead 2022 under the headline “From the editor”

    Reuse this content The Trust Project

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