Latin America Ecommerce 2020 EMarketer

LATIN AMERICA
ECOMMERCE
2020
How COVID-19 Will Affect Growth
and Sales in Argentina, Brazil
and Mexico
JUNE 2020
Matteo Ceurvels
Contributors: Rini Mukhopadhyay
LATIN AMERICA ECOMMERCE: HOW COVID-19 WILL AFFECT GROWTH AND
SALES IN ARGENTINA, BRAZIL AND MEXICO
Latin America is no stranger to turbulent market activity, but the pandemic is unlike anything the region has seen
before. As a result, we substantially revised our previous total retail and ecommerce forecasts to best reflect the
rapidly changing landscape.
How will COVID-19 affect total retail sales in Latin

America this year?
Physical store closures, coupled with government-
mandated stay-at-home orders, will undoubtedly hurt
retailers’ bottom lines this year. In turn, we significantly
revised our total retail sales figures downward, falling
5.3% to $1.506 trillion.
What does the road to recovery look like for Latin

America’s retail industry?
Recovery times will greatly vary by country due to each
market’s unique set of circumstances, including its
government’s ability to contain the pandemic and mitigate
potential economic downturns. Overall, we expect total
retail sales to return to their pre-pandemic levels by early
to mid-2022.
How has COVID-19 spurred ecommerce adoption in

Latin America?
The implications of the pandemic are far-reaching and
signal a watershed moment for ecommerce in Latin
America. We estimate that 10.8 million consumers will KEY STAT: Retail ecommerce sales in Latin America will
make a digital purchase for the first time this year. This grow by an estimated 19.4% in 2020, propelled largely by
will bring the total digital buyer count to 191.7 million, or the rise in online shopping during government-mandated
38.4% of the region’s population ages 14 and older. consumer lockdowns from March through June.
How much will consumers spend on ecommerce

in 2020?
Despite Latin America’s precarious economic situation, CONTENTS
retail ecommerce continues to register strong double-digit
growth. We expect that retail ecommerce sales will grow 2 Latin America Ecommerce: How COVID-19 Will Affect
19.4% to $83.63 billion. That’s nearly 7 percentage points Growth and Sales in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico
higher than the 12.5% growth we previously estimated in 4 Latin America Overview
our Q4 2019 forecast.
9 Argentina
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report explores the impact 13 Brazil
COVID-19 will have on consumer spending across total 17 Mexico
retail and ecommerce in Latin America, with breakouts
and recovery scenarios for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. 21 Key Takeaways
22 Read Next
22 Sources
22 Editorial and Production Contributors
LATIN AMERICA ECOMMERCE 2020: HOW COVID-19 WILL AFFECT GROWTH AND SALES IN ARGENTINA, BRAZIL AND MEXICO ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
Behind the Numbers Further detail on the three scenarios is outlined below:
Our retail ecommerce sales in Latin America forecast
is updated on a biannual basis in order to continually Base Case: Q4 Economic Recovery
incorporate the latest changes and developments in
the market. Our forecasting methodology is based Summary: In this scenario, there is a sharp
upon analysis of 833 data points from 148 sources, economic contraction followed by a slow recovery
including estimates from third-party research sources, to pre-pandemic levels.
retail industry sources, government releases covering
macro-level economic conditions, and incorporates In our baseline scenario, there is a sharp economic
retail ecommerce sales data and revenues as reported contraction in H1 2020. The pandemic eases in Q3, but
by major online retailers in Latin America. We also the prolonged shutdown of businesses have resulted
incorporate relevant consumer buying trends and mobile in widespread job losses that will weigh heavily on
device adoption, which play a large role in the uptake of
consumer spending. This scenario assumes that
ecommerce shopping.
the recovery will be slow but will start to rebound in
We include the following consumer categories in late 2020. This scenario also assumes there is no fall
our definition of retail ecommerce sales: resurgence of the virus.
Retail ecommerce sales include the sale of products and
related services ordered using the internet, regardless of Best Case: Q3 Economic Recovery
fulfillment method.
Summary: In this scenario, there is a sharp
Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales; furniture sales;
economic contraction followed by a quick recovery
electronics and appliance sales; building material and
gardening equipment sales; food and beverage sales; to pre-pandemic levels.
health and personal care sales; gasoline sales; clothing
and clothing accessories sales; sporting goods, hobby, In the most optimistic scenario, there is a sharp economic
book and physical music sales; general merchandise contraction in H1 2020. The pandemic eases toward the
sales; miscellaneous sales; nonstore sales (i.e., pure-play end of Q2, and economic activity resumes as businesses
ecommerce platform sales, mail-order sales, etc.); start to reopen. This scenario assumes that fiscal policy
digital download sales (movies, music, content, etc.); and stimulus actions help to manage the economic fallout
consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platform sales (eBay, auction and consumer spending will return to normal quickly.
sites, etc.). This scenario also assumes there is no fall resurgence of
We exclude the following consumer categories the virus.
from our definition of retail ecommerce sales:
Severe Case: Protracted Economic Recovery
Food services and drinking place sales (i.e., restaurant
sales, restaurant delivery ordered online); travel sales;
Summary: In this scenario, there is a steep economic
event ticket sales; payments such as bill pay, taxes or
decline, followed by a long period with no growth. It may
money transfers; gambling and other vice good sales.
take several years for the economy to recover fully to
pre-pandemic levels.
COVID-19 FORECAST SCENARIOS In the most severe scenario, the health crisis extends
Given the extreme uncertainty around the pandemic, we into H2 2020 due to reemergence or failure to contain the
have developed three scenarios to assess the possible virus. This results in extensions or renewals of lockdown
impact of COVID-19 on Latin America’s retail industry over measures. There is a longer-lasting negative shock to
the next two years. employment and incomes that depress consumer
demand. This leads to a prolonged economic contraction,
We are maintaining separate forecasts for each scenario and it could take many years before consumer spending
so that we can make appropriate adjustments in the returns to pre-pandemic levels.
future. At present, we will treat the fall economic
recovery as our baseline scenario, and all forecasts
included in this report are based on this assumption.
LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW ■■ A large informal economy. According to a December
2019 report from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), the informal economy has provided a livelihood
Widespread social unrest and economic volatility
for families that have been excluded from finding
during H2 2019 greatly disrupted market dynamics employment in the formal sector. The region had
in several countries across Latin America. 2020 was the second-highest proportion of informality during
expected to be a year of recovery and economic the 2010–2017 period studied, slightly behind
growth, but the arrival of COVID-19 on February 26 Sub-Saharan Africa. In both regions, the informal
put a damper on such expectations. economy accounted for more than one-third of each
region’s official GDP, at 34.0% and 34.4%, respectively.
These shares were significantly lower in more
Our complete estimates for Latin America ecommerce can developed countries like Switzerland (6.4%), the US
be found in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet. (7.6%) and Austria (7.9%).
Since then, the region has become a new epicenter of ■■ Poor public health conditions. Absent or inadequately
the pandemic. According to Johns Hopkins University, managed sanitation services could easily expose
1.7 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean had individuals to preventable health risks. In Latin America,
tested positive for COVID-19 as of June 16, accounting for roughly 490 million people—or 69% of the region’s
20.9% of confirmed cases worldwide. population—lacked access to proper sanitation in 2017,
according to figures released by the World Health
Latin America already grapples with many socioeconomic Organization (WHO) in June 2019.
challenges, and the pandemic has merely exacerbated
them. As governments attempt to contain the virus and ■■ Clusters of inhabitants living in close-quartered
mitigate potential economic downturns, several factors— slums. Rapid urbanization has led to major housing
including high poverty rates, a large informal economy, shortages across Latin America as people continue to
poor public health conditions and already weakened migrate from rural areas to densely populated urban
economies from protests in H2 2019—could force the centers. As local governments struggle to provide new
region to face one of the world’s worst outcomes of residents with adequate housing, shanty towns have
the pandemic. continued to grow in size on the periphery of many
cities. The World Bank estimated in 2014 that one-fifth
■■ High rates of poverty. According to projections from (20.4%) of Latin America’s urban population lived in
the Economic Commission for Latin America and the slums—a proportion that will likely have swelled when
Caribbean (ECLAC), published in December 2019, its next estimate is published.
poverty remains one of the region’s biggest challenges.
In 2019, 30.8% of Latin America’s population lived ■■ Already weakened economies from regional
below the poverty line, and 11.5% lived in extreme protests in H2 2019. Although government-mandated
poverty—rates that have grown from 30.1% and quarantines and social distancing measures were
10.7%, respectively, in just one year’s time. unavoidable, industries such as tourism, gastronomy, oil
and retail have been greatly affected by this slowdown
in economic activity. As a result, The Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU) revised its regional GDP growth
outlook downward from 0.9% in January 2020 to
a decrease of 4.8% as of March 2020. Economic
contractions will range from about 2.5% for Peru to
6.7% for Argentina—which has already been fighting its
own losing battle against rising inflation and its ongoing
debt crisis.
How Will the Coronavirus Impact GDP Growth in
Select Countries in Latin America?
% growth vs. 2019, Jan 2020 & March 2020
Peru
3.2%
-2.5%
Colombia
3.0%
-3.0%
Chile
1.2%
-4.8%
Brazil
2.4%
-5.5%
Mexico
0.9%
-6.3%
Argentina
-1.4%
-6.7%
Latin America
0.9%
-4.8% Recovery times will vary by country due to each market’s
Jan 2020 March 2020 circumstances, including its government’s ability to
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) as cited in company blog,
stem the spread of the virus and mitigate potential
March 27, 2020 economic downturns. We expect total retail sales will be
254337 www.eMarketer.com
$1.506 trillion in 2020, and that this figure will return to
pre-COVID-19 levels by 2023.
RETAIL SALES
The arrival of the coronavirus has had a profound impact
on Latin America’s retail industry. Since Brazil reported
the region’s first confirmed case on February 26, retailers
were initially spared from its damaging effects early on,
though this has not been the case for Q2. The number
of confirmed cases began to spike toward the end
of March, and governments’ mandated stay-at-home
orders in several countries forced retailers to close their
physical stores.
These brick-and-mortar closures will undoubtedly have

a negative impact on retailers’ bottom lines this year. As
such, we have revised our total retail sales growth figures
downward from a modest increase of 3.2% in our Q4
2019 forecast to a decline of 5.3% by year-end.
RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES
The implications of the pandemic are far-reaching and
signal a watershed moment for ecommerce in Latin
America. Retailers that did not value the importance of
ecommerce are now finding it to be their only saving
grace from financial ruin. Conversely, consumers who
were once skeptical of making a digital purchase are now
experiencing the inherent advantages of being able to buy
something with the click of a button.
We forecast that 10.8 million consumers will be first-time

digital buyers this year. This will help bring the total digital
buyer count to 191.7 million, or 38.4% of the region’s
population ages 14 and older.
Given ecommerce’s rapid acceleration, we also expect

that regional sales will surpass the $100 billion mark for
the first time in 2022, a year earlier than we presumed in
our May 2019 estimates. Consumers’ growing adoption
of online shopping will also help to increase ecommerce’s
share of total retail sales. We expect this share to double
from 3.5% in 2018 to 7.1% by 2023.
Despite Latin America’s precarious economic situation,

retail ecommerce sales had strong year-over-year
growth well before the pandemic. Nevertheless, the
coronavirus has accelerated consumers’ rapid pivot
toward ecommerce. This shift in the near term is sure to
influence spending habits in the long term.
This year, we expect that retail ecommerce sales

will grow 19.4% to $83.63 billion. That’s roughly a
7-percentage-point increase compared with the 12.5%
growth we previously estimated in our Q4 2019 forecast.
Even though total retail sales should recover by then, we The same holds true for consumers’ online purchasing
do believe that ecommerce will continue to grow strongly decisions, as digital demand for select “essential” product
in years to come—provided that retailers are able to offer categories has soared across the region. In a May 2020
consumers an optimal shopping experience throughout report published by Mercado Libre, Latin America’s
the customer journey. largest ecommerce platform, the company’s internal
figures revealed that health and medical equipment were
the fastest-growing product categories on their platform
IMPACT ON PRODUCTS PURCHASED regionally, growing by 300% over a 10-week period
spanning from February 24 to May 3, compared with the
Amid an uncertain future, the pandemic has forced same period in 2019. This was followed by consumer
consumers in Latin America to prioritize essential items. packaged goods (CPG) and food items (164%),
In turn, less important purchases—like clothing and home/furniture/garden (84%) and entertainment/fitness
fashion or smartphones/mobile phones—have taken a items (61%).
temporary back seat, according to March 2020 polling of
internet users in Latin America by GfK.
Change in Digital Orders on Mercado Libre Since the
Coronavirus Pandemic* Among Digital Buyers in Latin
America, by Product Category, Feb 24-May 3, 2020
Delayed Purchases due to the Coronavirus Pandemic % change vs. same period of prior year
Among Internet Users in Latin America*, March 2020
% of respondents Health & medical equipment 300%
Clothing/fashion CPG & food 164%
51%
84% Home, furniture and garden
Smartphones/mobile phones
31% 61% Entertainment and fitness
Computing items Computing 55%

28%
Note: represents activity tracked by Mercado Libre, broader industry
Small appliances metrics may vary; *Feb 26, 2020
27% Source: Mercado Libre, "E-commerce: evolución en los hábitos del
consumidor en tiempos de COVID-19," May 13, 2020
Major home appliances 255903 www.eMarketer.com
24%
Personal care electronics As a result, the ecommerce platform experienced
19% unprecedented digital order growth during this timeframe.
Toys Per Mercado Libre, digital orders skyrocketed into triple-
17% digit territory in Chile, Colombia and Mexico; Argentina,
Packaged food and beverages Uruguay and Brazil underwent double-digit growth.
15%
TV/streaming player
15% Change in Digital Orders on Mercado Libre Since the
Coronavirus Pandemic* Among Digital Buyers in Latin
Smart speakers
America, by Country, Feb 24-May 3, 2020
13% % change vs. same period of prior year
Tires
13% Chile 125%
Wearables Colombia 119%

12%
Mexico 112%
Washing and cleaning products
Argentina 52%
8%
None of the above Uruguay 47%
21% Brazil 39%
Note: n=2,174 ages 18+; *includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Note: represents activity tracked by Mercado Libre, broader industry
Peru metrics may vary; *Feb 26, 2020
Source: GfK, "Consumo en tiempos de COVID-19," April 9, 2020 Source: Mercado Libre, "E-commerce: evolución en los hábitos del
254869 www.eMarketer.com consumidor en tiempos de COVID-19," May 13, 2020
Similar trends were also apparent in the aforementioned Products that Internet Users in Latin America* Plan to
GfK survey—15.7% of internet users said they would Purchase After the Coronavirus Pandemic Has Been
start buying basic necessity items online in light of the Resolved, March 2020
% of respondents
coronavirus. Some 14.6% planned to do the same for
pharmacy products. Meanwhile, with physical retail Clothing/fashion
48%
locations temporarily closed, internet users planned
Packaged food and beverages
to buy several select categories online, at frequencies
29%
including more often than before, with the same
Smartphones/mobile phones
frequency as before or less often than before. The top
23%
items respondents planned to buy digitally included
Washing and cleaning products
technology products (46.3%), clothing or footwear 22%
(44.5%), and durable goods (44.2%). Computing items
21%
Impact the Coronavirus Has Had on the Digital Small appliances

Shopping Habits of Internet Users in Latin America*, 19%
by Category, March 2020 Major home appliances
% of respondents in each group 18%
Technology products (mobile phones, laptops, etc.) Personal care electronics
46.3% 7.5% 9.1% 37.1% 12%
Clothing or footwear Tires

44.5% 9.6% 9.7% 36.3% 9%
Durable goods (household appliances, cars, etc.) Toys

44.2% 7.8% 8.5% 39.4% 8%
Financial services (insurance, bank products, etc.) TV/streaming player

39.3% 7.6% 7.1% 45.9% 6%
Smart speakers
Basic necessity items (drinks, food, cleaning products
or personal hygiene) 5%
38.9% 15.7% 4.4% 41.0% Wearables
Pharmacy products 5%
38.5% 14.6% 4.9% 42.1% None of the above
Travel 18%
37.1% 7.3% 12.8% 42.9%
Note: n=2,174 ages 18+; *includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and
Books Peru
Source: GfK, "Consumo en tiempos de COVID-19," April 9, 2020
35.0% 8.9% 6.1% 50.0%
Games/video games
26.5% 4.6% 7.9% 61.1% GfK found that internet users in Latin America planned to
Plan to buy digitally** purchase items such as clothing and fashion (48%) and
Will start buying digitally smartphones/mobile phones (23%) once the pandemic
Plan to stop buying digitally
has lessened.
Never bought it digitally and will not start now
Note: n=2,174 ages 18+; numbers may not add up to 100% due to
rounding; *includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru; **includes
responses for "more often than before," "with the same frequency as
before" and "less often than before"
Source: GfK, "Consumo en tiempos de COVID-19"; eMarketer calculations,
April 9, 2020
For those retailers whose products happen to be deemed

as “nonessential” by consumers, there is a bit of good
news on the horizon.
ARGENTINA RETAIL SALES
Argentina’s current macroeconomic environment has led
Argentina reported its first confirmed case of the
us to revise our total retail sales figures downward from
coronavirus on March 3, 2020. Since then, the number
the mute 0.5% we previously projected for this year. We
of cases has exponentially grown to nearly 33,000 as now expect that the country’s overall retail industry—in
of June 16, according to Johns Hopkins University. US dollars—will post negative growth of 6.0%. This, in
turn, will bring down the value of its retail market to its
The coronavirus could not have arrived at a worse time lowest point since we began tracking Argentina’s retail
for Argentina—a country already marred by a lingering sales in 2008.
economic crisis. Despite several pro-business policies
and market-friendly reforms put forth by former President
Mauricio Macri, Argentina continues to drown in debt and
fight its battle against double-digit inflation.
The coronavirus pandemic further exacerbates these

problems as current President Alberto Fernández’s
lockdown brought the economy to a screeching halt. With
inflation set to reach 41.7% this year, the IMF expects
Argentina’s economy to contract 5.7%, further plunging
the country into economic despair.
Inflation and GDP Growth in Argentina, 2015-2021

% change
53.5%
41.2% 41.7%
34.3%
31.3%
26.7% 25.7%
2.7% 2.7% 4.4% Argentina’s road to recovery will depend on several

0 factors, namely how quickly Alberto Fernández’s
-2.1% -2.5% -2.2% -5.7%
government will be able to contain the coronavirus, lift
the nationwide lockdown, jump-start the economy, and
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
renegotiate its sovereign debt after defaulting on its
Inflation* GDP**
loans for the second time since 2000. Given the extreme
Note: *average consumer prices; figures for 2015 and 2016 were provided certainty around the pandemic, we have modeled three
by FocusEconomics; figures for 2020 and 2021 were provided by the BCRA;
**constant prices possible ways in which the coronavirus could impact total
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), "World Economic Outlook
Database: April 2020," Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) and
retail sales in Argentina this year.
FocusEconomics, April 14, 2020
Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales Growth in
Argentina, 2020
% change vs. prior year
-6.0% Base case
-1.5% Best case
-8.2% Severe case
Note: excludes travel and event tickets

Source: eMarketer, May 2020
■■ Base case: In this scenario, there is a sharp economic Overall, we expect that Argentina’s retail industry will
contraction in the first half of the year. Widespread return to its pre-pandemic levels in two years’ time.
restrictions on social interactions are enforced through By 2022, sales will rise to an estimated $126.04 billion
June. The pandemic eases in Q3, but the prolonged (ARS6.907 trillion). Growth rates will remain positive
shutdown of businesses have resulted in widespread throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
job losses that will weigh heavily on consumer
spending. Total retail sales will fall 6.0%, bringing
the value of Argentina’s retail market down from
$125.60 billion (ARS6.883 trillion) to $118.06 billion
(ARS6.470 trillion).
■■ Best case: In the most optimistic scenario, there

is a sharp economic contraction followed by a
quick recovery to pre-pandemic levels. Even so,
total retail sales will still see growth drop by 1.5%,
slightly falling from $125.60 billion to $123.71 billion
(ARS6.780 trillion).
■■ Severe case: In the most severe scenario, the health

crisis extends into H2 2020 due to reemergence or
failure to contain the virus. This results in extensions
or renewals of lockdown measures. Total retail sales
will decline 8.2%, tumbling from $125.60 billion to
$115.30 billion (ARS6.319 trillion).
Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales in Argentina,

2018-2020
billions
$169.05
$125.60
RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES
$123.71
$125.60 This year, an estimated 17.2 million people in Argentina
$125.60
will make a digital purchase, up from 16.4 million the year
$118.06
$115.30 prior. As these new digital buyers begin to take an active
part in the digital economy, we expect nearly half (48.8%)
2018 2019 2020
of Argentina’s population ages 14 and older will make at
Base case Best case Severe case
least one digital purchase.
Note: excludes travel and event tickets; converted at the exchange rate of
US$1=ARS54.80
We expect ecommerce’s share of total retail sales in
Argentina to double in size between 2018 and 2020, from
2.2% to 4.5%, respectively.
Despite the country’s bleak economic outlook, retail

ecommerce is a bright spot. Retail ecommerce sales
will grow 2.25 times faster than our previous Q4 2019
estimates, achieving double-digit growth of 18.0%.
Growth will be sustained through the remainder of our
forecast, dropping back down into the single digits from
2021 onward.
Although ecommerce’s share is expected to remain

at similar levels for the foreseeable future—as in-store
sales slowly recover—wider consumer adoption of digital
commerce is here to stay.
IMPACT ON PRODUCTS PURCHASED

Consumers in Argentina are no stranger to living under
volatile economic conditions. Despite this, the coronavirus
has had a profound impact on the types of products
consumers in Argentina deem as important.
According to a poll conducted at the end of March 2020

by advertising agencies DDB Argentina and DDB Latina,
luxury products (61%), car purchases (50%) and beauty
products (29%) became less important to internet users
in Argentina in light of the coronavirus. Conversely, items
like medicine and health (57%), fruits and vegetables
(54%), and food (48%) grew in importance.
Products/Services that Will Become More vs. Less Impact the Coronavirus Has Had on the Digital
Important to Internet Users in Argentina in Light of Shopping Habits of Internet Users in Argentina,
the Coronavirus Pandemic, March 2020 by Category, March 2020
% of respondents % of respondents in each group
Medicine and health Clothing or footwear
57% 42% 1% 51.9% 8.0% 4.0% 36.0%
Fruits and vegetables Durable goods (household appliances, cars, etc.)

54% 46% 51.2% 7.1% 4.9% 36.8%
Food Technology products (mobile phones, laptops, etc.)

48% 52% 49.9% 6.9% 6.1% 37.1%
Household cleaning products Travel

45% 53% 2% 41.7% 4.4% 7.6% 46.3%
Life and health insurance Financial services (insurance, bank products, etc.)
43% 52% 5% 41.6% 6.1% 4.4% 48.0%
Body hygiene products Pharmacy products

41% 57% 2% 38.0% 11.8% 1.7% 48.5%
Owning a house Basic necessity items (drinks, food, cleaning products

41% 53% 5% or personal hygiene)
37.7% 13.0% 1.6% 47.6%
Home entertainment
31% 65% 4% Books
36.6% 6.5% 4.2% 52.7%
Banking and investments
29% 61% 10% Games/video games
27.1% 4.1% 5.2% 63.5%
Content platforms
Plan to buy*
27% 66% 7%
Will start buying digitally
Electronics and technology Plan to stop buying digitally
21% 65% 14% Never bought it digitally and will not start now
Beauty Note: n=407 ages 18+; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding;
2% 69% 29% *includes responses for "more often than before," "with the same
frequency as before" and "less often than before"
Car purchase Source: GfK, "Consumo en tiempos de COVID-19"; eMarketer calculations,
April 9, 2020
1% 49% 50%
Luxury products
1% 39% 61% The survey also found that respondents planned to
More important The same Less important buy several select categories online more often than
before, with the same frequency as before or less
Note: ages 18+; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: DDB Argentina and DDB Latina, "Los argentinos en tiempos de often than before. These included items like clothing or
Coronavirus," May 19, 2020
footwear (51.9%), durable goods (51.2%) and technology
products (49.9%).
Similar trends were also apparent in internet users’ online
purchases. As evidenced by GfK, 13.0% of internet users
in Argentina said they would start buying basic necessity
items online as a result of the coronavirus; some 11.8%
planned to do the same for pharmacy products.
BRAZIL
Brazil became the first Latin American country
to report a confirmed case of the coronavirus on
February 26. Amid conflicting messages about
the ongoing health crises, lockdowns and social
distancing measures among right-wing populist
leader President Jair Bolsonaro vs. state governors,
Brazil currently has the world’s second-highest
numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths.
As of June 16, the number of confirmed cases in Brazil

was near the 1 million mark (888,271), per Johns Hopkins
University. The pandemic has devasted the country’s
economy—particularly in oil, tourism and trade—wiping
out its modest economic gains after a deep recession
from 2014 to 2016. This year was initially expected to be
one of growth, but Brazil’s economy is now projected
to contract 5.3% in 2020, per the IMF. Inflation will hold
steady at 3.6%, down from 3.7% in both 2018 and 2019.
Brazil’s road to recovery will depend on several factors,
Inflation and GDP Growth in Brazil, 2015-2021 namely how quickly state and local officials will be able
% change to band together and get a handle on the ongoing health
crisis. While some state governors and local mayors have
imposed stay-at-home orders, others are more reluctant
9.0% 8.7% to do so amid President Bolsonaro’s tireless attempts
at encouraging people to defy health officials’ efforts
to stop the spread of the virus. Due to rapidly changing
3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% conditions, we modeled three possible ways in which
2.9%
the coronavirus could impact total retail sales in Brazil
1.3% 1.3% 1.1%
this year.
0
-3.3%
-3.6% Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales Growth in
Brazil, 2020
% change vs. prior year
-5.3%
-5.4% Base case
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Best case 0.8%
Inflation* GDP**
-10.5% Severe case
Note: *average consumer prices; **constant prices
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), "World Economic Outlook
Database: April 2020," April 14, 2020 Note: excludes travel and event tickets
Base case: In this scenario, there is a sharp economic

RETAIL SALES
■■
contraction in the first half of the year. Widespread

restrictions on social interactions are enforced through
The country’s lockdown measures, which include the
June. The pandemic eases in Q3, but the prolonged
closure of nonessential businesses, will have a significant
shutdown of businesses have resulted in widespread
impact on the country’s retail industry this year. We
job losses that will negatively impact consumer
now expect that total retail sales will decline 5.4% to
spending. Total retail sales will fall 5.4%, bringing the
$512.52 billion (BRL2.022 trillion), down from our previous
value of Brazil’s retail market down from $541.78 billion
estimate of 1.7% growth.
(BRL2.138 trillion) to $512.52 billion (BRL2.022 trillion).
■■ Best case: In the most optimistic scenario, there is
a sharp economic contraction followed by a quick
recovery to pre-pandemic levels in Q3. Total retail sales
will see minimal growth of 0.8%, increasing from
$541.78 billion to $546.11 billion (BRL2.155 trillion).
■■ Severe case: In the most severe scenario, the health

crisis extends into the second half of 2020 due to the
government’s inability to contain the virus. This results
in extensions or renewals of lockdown measures.
Total retail sales will plummet 10.5%, dropping from
$541.78 billion to $484.89 billion (BRL1.913 trillion).
Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales in Brazil,

2018-2020
billions
$546.11
$541.78 $541.78
$532.72
$541.78
$512.52
$484.89 RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES

Retail ecommerce’s growth in Brazil has historically been
2018 2019 2020 relatively organic and contingent upon whatever was
Base case Best case Severe case happening in the political world. Even before the arrival
Note: excludes travel and event tickets; converted at the exchange rate of of COVID-19, retail ecommerce had experienced strong
US$1=BRL3.95
Source: eMarketer, May 2020 year-over-year growth. As major cities, like São Paulo,
255755 www.eMarketer.com remain under lockdown and slowly begin to reopen their
stores and malls, this has prompted an even greater shift
Overall, we forecast that Brazil’s retail industry will return
toward ecommerce among consumers in Brazil.
to its pre-pandemic levels in two years’ time. By 2022,
sales will increase to $543.72 billion (BRL2.145 trillion) This year, 3.2 million people will make a digital purchase
and continue on a modest growth path in the years ahead. for the first time, bringing the total number of digital
buyers to 66.7 million, or 39.2% of Brazil’s population
ages 14 and older.
As previously noted, ecommerce sales will be a bright
spot for Brazil’s retail industry. We now expect 2020
retail ecommerce sales to total $26.99 billion (BRL106.50
billion), up from $23.41 billion (BRL92.37 billion) in 2019.
Ecommerce will make up 5.3% of all retail sales in Brazil
this year and surpass the 6% mark for the first time
in 2022.
Although the pandemic will undoubtedly take its toll on

Brazil’s retail industry, ecommerce will grow at a much
faster rate than previously expected. Sales are projected
to grow 15.3% by year-end. That’s 2.55 times faster than
the 6.0% growth we initially forecast in our Q4 2019
estimates. Double-digit gains will continue throughout
the forecast.
Even as brick-and-mortar sales eventually begin to

recover, one thing is certain: Ecommerce is here to stay.

Brazil’s unemployment rate is expected to reach 14.7%
this year, according to the IMF. This has made consumers
more aware of their financial situation and the types of
purchases they plan to make.
An April 2020 study by Opinion Box found that the

coronavirus sparked a series of notable changes in
consumer spending—57% of internet users in Brazil
said they had stopped buying nonessential products
to save money during the pandemic. Twenty-one
percent of respondents planned to stop buying them,
while 22% said that they had no intention of stopping
such purchases.
Internet Users in Brazil Who Have Stopped Buying Similar trends also manifested themselves in internet
Nonessential Items to Save Money During the users’ digital purchases. According to GfK, 13.2% of
Coronavirus Pandemic, April 2020
internet users in Brazil said they would start buying basic
% of respondents
necessity items online due to the coronavirus. Some
12.0% planned to do the same for pharmacy products.
Haven't done this
and don't plan to
22% Impact the Coronavirus Has Had on the Digital
Shopping Habits of Internet Users in Brazil, by
Already did this Category, March 2020
Intend to do this 57%
21% % of respondents in each group
Durable goods (household appliances, cars, etc.)
51.0% 8.3% 6.9% 33.8%
Technology products (mobile phones, laptops, etc.)

Note: ages 16+ 49.4% 9.1% 9.9% 31.7%
Source: Opinion Box, "Impacto nos hábitos de compra e consumo: Como a
pandemia mundial está transformando o comportamento do consumidor Pharmacy products
brasileiro, 5ª edição," April 28, 2020 45.5% 12.0% 5.7% 36.8%
Clothing or footwear
However, consumer spending on essential goods and 45.5% 11.9% 11.3% 31.3%
services continues to grow. The same Opinion Box study Financial services (insurance, bank products, etc.)
revealed that food items represented the biggest increase 39.0% 8.4% 8.0% 44.5%
in consumer spending. Forty-nine percent of respondents Books

had already increased, or began increasing, their 38.3% 9.0% 4.1% 48.6%
expenditures for food items. Some 46% had done the Basic necessity items (drinks, food, cleaning products
or personal hygiene)
same for their water and electricity bills—as a direct result 32.7% 13.2% 5.8% 48.3%
of spending more time quarantined in their homes—while
Games/video games
nearly as many had spent more on cleaning products 32.3% 4.9% 7.3% 55.5%
(45%). Travel
28.1% 11.2% 10.8% 49.9%
Internet Users in Brazil Whose Expenditures Have Plan to buy*

Increased During the Coronavirus Pandemic, by Will start buying digitally
Product/Service, April 2020 Plan to stop buying digitally
% of respondents in each group Never bought it digitally and will not start now
Note: n=425 ages 18+; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding;
Food 49%
*includes responses for "more often than before," "with the same
frequency as before" and "less often than before"
Water and electricity 46%
Source: GfK, "Consumo en tiempos de COVID-19"; eMarketer calculations,
April 9, 2020
Cleaning products 45%
Internet 36%
Gas 34%
Meanwhile, with physical retail locations temporarily
closed, internet users planned to buy several select
Health and medicine 25%
categories online more often than before, with the same
13% Fuel for cars or motorcycles frequency as before or less often than before. These
Note: ages 16+; among those who have expenses for each product/service included things like durable goods (51.0%), technology
Source: Opinion Box, "Impacto nos hábitos de compra e consumo: Como a products (49.4%) and pharmacy products (45.5%).
pandemia mundial está transformando o comportamento do consumidor
brasileiro, 5ª edição," April 28, 2020
MEXICO Inflation and GDP Growth in Mexico, 2015-2021
% change
Despite lackluster economic projections at the start of

2020, consumers in Mexico initially shared a collective
6.0%
sense of optimism about the year ahead. COVID-19 4.9%
3.3% 3.6%
changed all of that. On February 28, Mexico became 2.9% 2.7% 3.0%
2.1% 2.1%
the second country in Latin America to confirm its 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%
0
first case of the coronavirus. Since then, the number -0.1%
of new daily cases continues to grow.
As of June 16, more than 150,000 people in Mexico had

-6.6%
tested positive for COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
University. The country also has the region’s highest
mortality rate proportional to the number of confirmed Inflation* GDP**
cases, at 11.7%. That’s more than double the regional Note: *average consumer prices; **constant prices
average of 4.8%. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), "World Economic Outlook
Database: April 2020," April 14, 2020
Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (more
commonly known as AMLO) initially downplayed the For comparison, GDP fell 5.3% in 2009 during the global
severity of the coronavirus. As much of Latin America had financial crisis and plummeted 6.3% in 1995 following
already begun to shut down, the government declared a the sudden devaluation of the country’s currency—more
national state of sanitary emergency and suspended all commonly known as the “Mexican Peso Crisis” by
nonessential activities in late March—more than a month economic historians.
after the country reported its first confirmed case.
By this time, the coronavirus had already begun to take

its toll on Mexico’s economy. Amid growing concerns
RETAIL SALES
over US job losses and controversy surrounding AMLO’s Our latest estimates for Mexico’s retail industry reflect
lackadaisical response, the Mexican peso lost 21.2% of a similar growth trajectory to that of the country’s
its value, tumbling to a new historic low of MXN24.57 economic outlook. We now expect total retail sales to fall
per US dollar during the week of April 20 vs. the week of 5.2% this year, down from our previous estimate of 6.0%
February 24. growth. After factoring ecommerce out of the equation,
brick-and-mortar sales will fare much worse. We estimate
Although inflation will remain stable, at 2.7%, the IMF that in-store sales will see a sharp decline of 6.5% amid
forecasts a 6.6% contraction for Mexico’s GDP in 2020. government-mandated store closings.
This is the worst decline among major countries in the
region except for Venezuela. It is also the most severe
economic downturn in Mexico’s recent history.
■■ Best case: In this scenario, there is a sharp economic
contraction in H1 2020. The pandemic eases toward
the end of Q2, and economic activity resumes as
businesses start to reopen. Total retail sales will grow
1.2%, increasing from $419.69 billion to $424.72 billion
(MXN8.175 trillion).
■■ Severe case: In the most pessimistic scenario, the

health crisis continues into the second half of 2020.
This results in extensions or renewals of lockdown
measures along with a longer-lasting negative shock
to employment and incomes that depress consumer
demand. Total retail sales will tumble 9.1%, falling from
$419.69 billion to $381.50 billion (MXN7.343 trillion).
Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales in Mexico,

2018-2020
billions
$424.72
$419.69
$419.69
$419.69
Mexico’s road to recovery will depend on several factors, $397.86
namely how quickly the government will be able to
contain the coronavirus and spur economic activity during $394.88
H2 2020. Due to rapidly changing conditions, we modeled
$381.50
three possible ways in which the coronavirus could
impact total retail sales in Mexico this year.
2018 2019 2020

Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales Growth in
Mexico, 2020 Base case Best case Severe case
% change vs. prior year Note: excludes travel and event tickets; converted at the exchange rate of
US$1=MXN19.25
-5.2% Base case Source: eMarketer, May 2020
Best case 1.2%
-9.1% Severe case Overall, we estimate that Mexico’s retail industry

will bounce back to its pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
Note: excludes travel and event tickets
Source: eMarketer, May 2020 At that time, sales will increase to $421.67 billion
255758 www.eMarketer.com (MXN8.116 trillion). Future growth rates will remain strong
■■ Base case: In our baseline scenario, there is a sharp over the duration of the forecast.
economic contraction in the first half of the year.
Widespread restrictions on social interactions are
enforced through May. The pandemic eases in Q3, but
the prolonged shutdown of businesses have resulted in
widespread job losses that will have an adverse effect
on consumer spending. Total retail sales will fall 5.2%,
bringing the value of Mexico’s retail market down from
$419.69 billion (MXN8.078 trillion) to $397.86 billion
(MXN7.658 trillion).
Even though the coronavirus will have an adverse effect
on brick-and-mortar sales, ecommerce, on the other hand,
will continue to thrive. We now expect retail ecommerce
RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES sales to grow 20.9% by the end of the year, up from our
previous estimate of 18.0%.
Retail ecommerce has undergone significant, double-digit
growth in previous years, and the pandemic has given
rise to an even faster acceleration of ecommerce than
previously expected.
As consumer spending habits shift online in response to

this “new normal,” an estimated 2.2 million people will
make a digital purchase for the first time in 2020. This will
bring the yearly total to 22.6 million people—or roughly
one-quarter (23.2%) of Mexico’s population ages 14 and
older—who will make at least one online purchase.
This impressive growth will also allow Mexico to maintain
its spot in our top 10 fastest-growing retail ecommerce
markets worldwide. The country will rank sixth among
the 33 countries we forecast, coming in slightly ahead
of Canada (20.7%) and behind India (21.0%). For
comparison, Argentina and Brazil will come in 13th and
23rd place, respectively.
But even as retailers slowly begin to reopen their doors

in the near term, consumers’ broader adoption of
ecommerce will be one of the most evident behavioral
shifts that will be here to stay in the long term.

As retail ecommerce continues to flourish, its share of In the face of macroeconomic shock, the IMF forecasts
total retail sales in Mexico will jump from 4.9% in 2019 to Mexico’s unemployment rate will top 5.3% this year. This
6.3% by year-end. At the same time, sales will also swell is a rate unlike anything the country has seen in recent
from $20.62 billion (MXN396.88 billion) to $24.93 billion years, aside from the global financial crisis (5.3%) and
(MXN479.83 billion). Mexican Peso Crisis (6.2%). As a result, consumers have
become more cautious about the types of goods and
services they plan to purchase.
According to a survey conducted at the end of March

2020 by advertising agencies DDB México and DDB
Latina, luxury products (66%), fruits and vegetables
(57%), and car purchases (55%) became less important
to internet users in Mexico in light of the coronavirus.
Conversely, products and services such as medicine and
health (64%), food (54%) and life/health insurance (51%)
grew in importance.
Products/Services that Will Become More vs. Less Product Categories that Internet Users in Mexico
Important to Internet Users in Mexico in Light of the Have Purchased Digitally During the Coronavirus
Coronavirus Pandemic, March 2020 Pandemic, April 2020
% of respondents % of respondents
Medicine and health
Food delivery 40%
64% 36%
Fashion 30%
Food
54% 46% Supermarket 28%
Life and health insurance Household toiletries 26%
51% 45% 4%
Beauty & personal care 24%
Household cleaning products
44% 55% 2% Electronics 24%
Owning a house Medicine 24%

39% 56% 5% Tools 23%
Body hygiene products
Consoles and video games 20%
36% 63% 1%
Items for pets 19%
Home entertainment
33% 61% 6% Sports 18%
Banking and investments Appliances 17%
32% 55% 13%
Furniture & home decor 16%
Content platforms
Automotive 15%
30% 62% 8%
Electronics and technology Children's products 15%

26% 63% 10%
Note: n=303 ages 18+; in the past 7 days
Beauty Source: Asociación Mexicana de Venta Online (AMVO), "Impacto COVID-19
en el consumidor mexicano" conducted by Netquest, April 23, 2020
3% 70% 26%
Car purchase
2% 43% 55% Product categories like food delivery (40%), supermarkets
Fruits and vegetables
(28%), household toiletries (26%) and medicine (24%)
43% 57% were some of the most popular ones purchased digitally
Luxury products
by internet users in Mexico during the pandemic.
34% 66%
More important No change Less important
Note: n=467 ages 18+; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: DDB México and DDB Latina, "¿Cómo será el nuevo mexicano?"
KEY TAKEAWAYS
April 23, 2020
255317 www.eMarketer.com ■■ Latin America already faces many socioeconomic
challenges, and the arrival of the coronavirus has
Similar trends were also reflected in internet users’
merely exacerbated them. As governments attempt to
online purchases according to an April 2020 Asociación
contain the pandemic and mitigate potential economic
Mexicana de Venta Online (AMVO) study conducted
downturns, several socioeconomic factors could force
by Netquest.
the region to face one of the world’s worst outcomes of
the pandemic.
■■ The pandemic has upended Latin America’s retail

industry. The decline in foot traffic to physical retail
locations will undoubtedly have a negative impact
on retailers’ bottom lines this year. As such, we
significantly revised our total retail sales growth figures
downward to a drop of 5.3%, with sales declining to
$1.506 trillion in 2020.
■■ We expect total retail sales to return to their
pre-pandemic levels within two to three years. Local
SOURCES
politics and economics will greatly influence the future
Asociación Mexicana de Venta Online (AMVO)
of Latin America’s retail industry, and recovery times
will vary by country. Those times will depend on how Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA)
each government responds to stopping the spread Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
of the coronavirus and how they mitigate potential at Johns Hopkins University
economic downturns. DDB Argentina
■■ The implications of the pandemic are far-reaching DDB Latina
and signal a watershed moment for ecommerce DDB México
to flourish in Latin America. Even amid an uncertain
Economic Commission for Latin America and the
future, one thing is certain: Consumers’ broader
Caribbean (ECLAC)
embrace of ecommerce will be one of the most
notable behavioral changes that will be here to stay FocusEconomics
in a post-COVID-19 world. GfK
■■ The pandemic has forced consumers in Latin International Monetary Fund (IMF)
America to prioritize essential items. In turn, less Mercado Libre
important purchases such as clothing and fashion have Netquest
taken a temporary back seat to product categories like
health, medicine, food and durable goods. Opinion Box
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
The World Bank
READ NEXT World Health Organization (WHO)
COVID-19’s Impact in Latin America: How the

Coronavirus Will Change Digital Advertising in EDITORIAL AND
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
COVID-19’s Impact on Businesses and Consumers in
Latin America Anam Baig Senior Editor
COVID-19 Impact: Latin America Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist
Donte Gibson Chart Editor
Frictionless Commerce 2020: How Coronavirus Is
Accelerating Seamless Omnichannel Retail Katie Hamblin Chart Editorial Manager
Dana Hill Director of Production
Erika Huber Copy Editor
Ann Marie Kerwin Executive Editor, Content Strategy
Stephanie Meyer Senior Production Artist
Heather Price Deputy Editor
Magenta Ranero Senior Chart Editor
Amanda Silvestri Senior Copy Editor
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LATIN AMERICA

How will COVID-19 affect total retail sales in Latin

What does the road to recovery look like for Latin

How has COVID-19 spurred ecommerce adoption in

How much will consumers spend on ecommerce

These brick-and-mortar closures will undoubtedly have

We forecast that 10.8 million consumers will be first-time

Given ecommerce’s rapid acceleration, we also expect

Despite Latin America’s precarious economic situation,

This year, we expect that retail ecommerce sales

Computing items Computing 55%

Wearables Colombia 119%

Impact the Coronavirus Has Had on the Digital Small appliances

Clothing or footwear Tires

Durable goods (household appliances, cars, etc.) Toys

Financial services (insurance, bank products, etc.) TV/streaming player

For those retailers whose products happen to be deemed

The coronavirus pandemic further exacerbates these

Inflation and GDP Growth in Argentina, 2015-2021

2.7% 2.7% 4.4% Argentina’s road to recovery will depend on several

-6.0% Base case

-1.5% Best case

-8.2% Severe case

Note: excludes travel and event tickets

■■ Best case: In the most optimistic scenario, there

■■ Severe case: In the most severe scenario, the health

Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales in Argentina,

Despite the country’s bleak economic outlook, retail

Although ecommerce’s share is expected to remain

IMPACT ON PRODUCTS PURCHASED

According to a poll conducted at the end of March 2020

Fruits and vegetables Durable goods (household appliances, cars, etc.)

Food Technology products (mobile phones, laptops, etc.)

Household cleaning products Travel

Body hygiene products Pharmacy products

Owning a house Basic necessity items (drinks, food, cleaning products

As of June 16, the number of confirmed cases in Brazil

Base case: In this scenario, there is a sharp economic

contraction in the first half of the year. Widespread

■■ Severe case: In the most severe scenario, the health

Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales in Brazil,

$484.89 RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES

Although the pandemic will undoubtedly take its toll on

Even as brick-and-mortar sales eventually begin to

IMPACT ON PRODUCTS PURCHASED

An April 2020 study by Opinion Box found that the

Technology products (mobile phones, laptops, etc.)

in consumer spending. Forty-nine percent of respondents Books

Internet Users in Brazil Whose Expenditures Have Plan to buy*

Despite lackluster economic projections at the start of

As of June 16, more than 150,000 people in Mexico had

By this time, the coronavirus had already begun to take

■■ Severe case: In the most pessimistic scenario, the

Coronavirus Impact: Total Retail Sales in Mexico,

2018 2019 2020

-9.1% Severe case Overall, we estimate that Mexico’s retail industry

As consumer spending habits shift online in response to

But even as retailers slowly begin to reopen their doors

IMPACT ON PRODUCTS PURCHASED

According to a survey conducted at the end of March