Guide To Low-Volatility Investing: For Professional Investors
Guide To Low-Volatility Investing: For Professional Investors
Guide To Low-Volatility Investing: For Professional Investors
Guide to low-volatility
investing
FROM THEORY TO PORTFOLIO
Content
The strategy
How to avoid the pitfalls of a generic low-vol approach
The construction of a Conservative equities portfolio
Losing less in down markets
The portfolio
How can low-volatility investing be applied in an equity portfolio?
Case Study: Conservative Equity impact on a strategic portfolio
The funds
Robeco Global All Countries Conservative Equities
Robeco European Conservative Equities
Robeco US Conservative Equities
Robeco Emerging Conservative Equities
Investment team
Extra information
Terms and definitions
Recommended articles
Dear reader,
It gives us great pleasure to present you with this ‘Guide to low-volatility investing’. It describes
the basics of low-volatility investing, provides insight into the volatility effect and shows how
the Robeco Conservative Equities strategies work. This guide introduces the key features of
Robeco’s Conservative Equities and explains how the strategy can be used in a portfolio.
According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) theory, risk and return should go hand
in hand. However, 40 years of empirical studies have proved that the relationship between
risk and return is flat or even negative. Strategies based on this phenomenon are therefore a
promising option for investors.
Robeco was one of the first companies to make research contributions to the academic
debate on low-volatility investing. And we have been a leader in successfully putting the
concept into practice. We launched our first Conservative Equity strategy for developed
markets in 2006 and an emerging markets strategy in 2011.
We hope this guide will give you an insight into how to achieve your long-term investment
goals and convince you of the benefits of our low-volatility approach.
Pim van Vliet Arlette van Ditshuizen Maarten Polfliet Jan Sytse Mosselaar
9%
carried out on the CAPM documented that the risk-return
Low beta High beta
relationship is flatter than the theory predicts. In fact, a study
by Haugen and Heins (1972) showed that low-beta stocks in 6%
the United States outperformed in the period 1929-1971. Risk (beta)
1
Van Vliet, Pim (2004), “Downside Risk and Empirical Asset Pricing”, PhD thesis Erasmus School of Economics
0
04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
International Emerging Markets Global/ACWI United States
2
Are low-volatility stocks overcrowded? David Blitz and Pim van Vliet, Robeco Research Paper, November 2014
3 Limited up-capture and valuation risk Valuation and momentum factors in the
stock-selection model
Source: Robeco
Source: Robeco
2) Portfolio Optimization
– Proprietary portfolio-construction algorithm
Client – Determine most efficient instruments
Portfolio
– Check proposed trades
75%
20%
50%
10%
25%
0% 0%
< 0% 0% to 15% > 15%
The average return series are based on the net asset values of three funds since inception until December 2014: Robeco Institutional Conservative Equity Fund (October 2006), Robeco
European Conservative Equity (September 2007) and Robeco Emerging Conservative Equities (March 2011), gross of fees. The Robeco Institutional Conservative Equity Fund and Robeco
European Conservative Equity and its reference indices have been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past
are no guarantee for the future.
See also: Blitz, David, and Pim van Vliet (2014), “Low-Volatility Investing: Expect the Unexpected”, Robeco research paper.
– The Robeco Conservative Equity strategy not only improves the risk-return
profile, it also offers good opportunities for income generation and capital
preservation
– The Robeco Conservative Equity strategy can be effectively combined with
other strategies in the portfolio
– Including Robeco Conservative Equities helps to improve the risk-return profile
of the total portfolio
Combined with benchmark-driven funds % Invested in Conservative Equity 0% 15% 30% 45% 100%
The Conservative Equity strategy can offer diversification Return % 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.7 7.3
benefits when it is combined with a benchmark-driven Volatility % 16.6 15.2 14.6 13.9 10.6
investment strategy (beta close to 1), because it has a less Tracking error % 1.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 7.2
volatile return pattern than many traditional equity funds.
This means the volatility of the combined portfolio will Source: Robeco Performance Measurement. Monthly data from October-06 through December-14, gross of fees, based on net
asset value of Robeco Institutional Conservative Equity Fund. For beta 1.0 portfolio we use the MSCI World and for beta 1.1 we use
go down. However, the tracking error will go up because
110% MSCI World excluding lending costs. For a better comparison, prior to July 2012 the index returns were hedged to the euro.
Conservative Equity has different stocks compared to the The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future.
benchmark.
3.0% The reason is that the stock in both strategies are selected
in different ways. Low-volatility takes low risk as the starting
2.0% point with a high dividend yield as a by-product, while a high
dividend strategy focuses first on dividend yield. Also, high-
1.0% dividend funds typically don’t offer downside protection to
Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept the extent that Conservative Equities does.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 6 shows that the dividend yield of Global Conservative
Conservative Equities MSCI World MSCI World MinVol
Equities is consistently higher than the MSCI World and MSCI
Source: Robeco. World Min Vol.
In this section, we will look into the effects of including Conservative Equities in a diversified
portfolio of equities and bonds. Robeco Investment Research has developed the Strategic Asset
Allocation (SAA) tool in order to analyze the risk and return profile. This enables us to assess the
effects of including assets in a client’s portfolio and test the robustness of the portfolio in various
economic scenarios. Roderick Molenaar Alexander de Roode, PhD
Portfolio & Pensions Research
The effect of Robeco Conservative Equities on your portfolio
Robeco analyzed the impact of Robeco Conservative Equities on a commonly used strategic, diversified portfolio of 60%
equities and 40% bonds. What are the effects of replacing half of the equity portfolio with Robeco Conservative Equities?
For this exhibit we use two economic scenarios: the ‘last five years’ and the ‘2015-2019’ scenario. These scenarios are
based on historical and forward-looking regimes, which are published in Robeco’s annual Expected Returns publication.
On the one hand the ‘last five years’ scenario shows the realized historical performance of the portfolios. On the other
hand, we use Robeco’s view on the current market environment to give a forward looking insight to show the future
potential added value of incorporating Conservative equities to the strategic portfolio.
In Figure 7, we show the improvement in the portfolio risk-return profile for both scenarios. In the last five years, which
were characterized by high equity returns (‘last five years’), the portfolio with Robeco Conservative Equity had returns
similar to the market.
In our ‘2015-2019’ scenario we expect a gradual Figure 7: Risk-return plot: Impact of including Conservative Equities in two scenarios
normalization of the world economy, where the
Return
– Stock selection that ensures low absolute and distress risk and offers attractive
returns
– Distinctive active approach based on award-winning research
– Proven track record since 2006 with lower volatility and enhanced returns
* This fund is only available for institutional investors and not for wholesale distributors. Since 17 September 2015 a Global Developed Equities Fund has been
available for professional investors in the wholesale distribution.
Proven track record since 2006 with lower Absolute risk is part of the strategy
volatility and enhanced returns Robeco’s Conservative approach does not look at relative
Robeco Global Conservative Equities was launched in 2006. risk, but at absolute downside risk. Over the period since
Although the strategy does not refer to a benchmark in its inception, our Conservative Equity Funds have had a
investment process, its aim is to achieve a long-term full- historical volatility lower than that of the reference indexes,
cycle performance equal to, or greater than, global equity while they have outperformed the index in terms of market
markets with substantial lower downside risk. returns. For institutional investors, such as pension funds,
this lower downside risk is interesting, because it can help to
Faster recovery by limiting losses stabilize funding ratios or free up risk budget.
In order to capitalize effectively on the low-risk anomaly, a
long-term investment approach is required. The advantage Factors that improve the risk-return profile
of Robeco’s low-volatility strategy is that, in a declining Stock selection is not only based on volatility, but also on low
market, the stocks involved typically fall less than other distress risk and valuation- and momentum-driven factors.
stocks. Once the market recovers, low-volatility stocks have This balanced approach distinguishes Robeco from other
less ground to make up to recover and start yielding positive providers who only focus on historical data. The combination
returns again. This compensates for the fact that the strategy of losing less in down markets and capturing a reasonable
may lag the MSCI Index in a strong up market. The main rate of return in up markets enables Robeco Conservative
objective of the funds is to achieve a long-term full-cycle Equity to achieve a long-term full-cycle equity market
performance equal to, or greater than, the MSCI Index, but performance with a lower level of volatility
with a lower degree of volatility.
Characteristics
Track record
Robeco Global AC Conservative Equities started in December 2011. Its aim is to achieve a long
term full cycle performance equal to or greater than global markets with substantial lower
downside risk. In the period January 2012 to September 2015, the fund posted an average
gross return in EUR of 14.6%, against a return of 13.5% for the MSCI AC (All Country) World.
The strategy does not apply a benchmark in its investment process. The MSCI All Country
Figure 8: Global All Countries Conservative is losing less in down markets and keeping track in up markets since inception
20% 20%
Volatility reduction
Min-Max: 9-24%
15% Average: 16%
15%
10%
5% 10%
0%
5%
-5%
-10% 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Left-hand graph: We use monthly return series based on the net asset value in EUR of Robeco Global All Countries Conservative Equities from January 20012-June 2015, gross of fees. The
fund and reference index have been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012.. Right-hand graph: Rolling 260 days annualized volatility, daily data in EUR, gross of fees, based on net
asset value of Robeco Global All Countries Conservative Equities. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future.
World Index is therefore presented as a reference. Moreover, the fund achieved this return
with significantly lower risk – the volatility of Robeco Global AC Conservative Equities over this
period was 9.0%, compared with 9.3% for the reference index.
Figure 8, the right hand graph, shows just that volatility was reduced through time. During
the entire period since inception, the volatility of Global AC Conservative Equities was lower.
This graph gives the rolling 260-day volatility of Robeco Global AC Conservative Equities
(blue) compared with that of the MSCI Robeco Global AC Conservative Equities (red).
Table 3: Track record Robeco Global All Countries Conservative Equities (in EUR)
Source: Robeco Performance Measurement. Monthly data since inception September-07, gross of fees, based on net asset value of Robeco European Conservative Equity Fund. The fund and
reference indices have been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012. The value of your investments may fluctu-ate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future. MSCI
Minimum Volatility base currency for optimization is EUR. Inception date of this index is June 2011, prior index data based on backfilled results as provided by MSCI.
Characteristics
Track record
Robeco European Conservative Equities (D-shares) started in January 2008. Its aim is to
achieve a long term full cycle performance equal to or greater than European markets with
substantial lower downside risk. In the period January 2008 to September 2015, the fund
posted an average gross return in EUR of 5.9%, against a return in EUR of 1.7% for the MSCI
Europe. The strategy does not apply a benchmark in its investment process. The MSCI Europe
Figure 9: European Conservative is losing less in down markets and keeping track in up markets since inception
25% 40%
Volatility reduction
20% Min-Max: 13-36%
Average: 25.5%
15%
30%
10%
5%
20%
0%
-5%
-10% 10%
-15%
-20% 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 09- 09- 09- 09- 09- 09- 09- 09-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Left-hand graph: We use monthly return series based on the net asset value in EUR of Robeco European Conservative Equity from September 2007-December 2014, gross of fees. The fund
and reference index ahave been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012. Right-hand graph: Rolling 260 days annualized volatility, daily data in EUR, gross of fees, based on net asset
value of Robeco European Conservative Equities Fund. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future.
Index is therefore presented as a reference. Moreover, the fund achieved this return with
significantly lower risk – the volatility of Robeco European Conservative Equities over this
period was 11.8%, compared with 16.3% for the reference index. Low-volatility strategies are
generally known to significantly reduce losses in most bear markets and low-volatility stocks
perform in line to better during years of moderate returns. It is generally the case that low-
volatility stocks lag in strong thematic bull markets.
Figure 9, the right hand graph, shows just that volatility was reduced through time. During
the entire period since inception, the volatility of European Conservative Equities was lower
than the volatility of the reference index. This graph gives the rolling 260-day volatility of
Robeco European Conservative Equities (blue) compared with that of the MSCI Europe (red).
Source: Robeco Performance Measurement. Monthly data since inception September-07, gross of fees, based on net asset value of Robeco European Conservative Equity Fund. The fund and
reference indices have been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012. The value of your investments may fluctu-ate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future. MSCI
Minimum Volatility base currency for optimization is EUR. Inception date of this index is June 2011, prior index data based on backfilled results as provided by MSCI.
Characteristics
Track record
Robeco US Conservative Equities (D-shares) started in March 2014. Its aim is to achieve a
long term full cycle performance equal to or greater than US and Canadian markets with
substantial lower downside risk.
In the period March 2014 to September 2015, the fund posted an average gross return (in
EUR) of 19.8%, against a return of 17.3% for the MSCI North America Index. The strategy
Figure 10: US Conservative Equities is losing less in down markets and keeping track in up markets since inception
10% 25%
Volatility reduction
8% Min-Max: 13-36%
Average: 26%
6% 20%
4%
2% 15%
0%
-2% 10%
-4%
-6% 5%
-8%
-10% 0%
2014 2015 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Left-hand graph: We use monthly return series based on the net asset value in EUR of Robeco European Conservative Equity from September 2007-December 2014, gross of fees. The fund
and reference index have been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012. Right-hand graph: Rolling 260 days annualized volatility, daily data in EUR, gross of fees, based on net asset
value of Robeco European Conservative Equities Fund. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future.
does not apply a benchmark in its investment process. The MSCI North America Index is
therefore presented as a reference. Moreover, the fund achieved this return with significantly
lower risk - the volatility of Robeco US Conservative Equities over this period was 10.66%,
compared with 12.03% for the reference index. Low-volatility strategies are generally known
to significantly reduce losses in most bear markets and low-volatility stocks perform in line to
better during years of moderate returns. It is generally the case that low-volatility stocks lag
Figure 10, the right hand graph, shows just that volatility was reduced through time. During
the entire period since inception, the volatility of Robeco US Conservative Equities was lower
than the volatility of the reference index. This graph gives the rolling 260-day volatility of
Robeco US Conservative Equities (blue) compared with that of the MSCI North America
Index(red).
30-09-2015 YTD
US Conservative Equities 4.63%
MSCI North America 1.36%
MSCI NA MinVol 4.47%
Source: Robeco Performance Measurement. Monthly data since inception April-14, gross of fees, based on net asset value of Robeco US Conservative Equities I EUR. All figures in EUR. The
value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future. MSCI Minimum Volatility base currency for optimization is EUR.
Characteristics
Track record
Robeco Emerging Conservative Equities (D-shares) started in February 2011. Its aim is to
achieve a long term full cycle performance equal to or greater than emerging markets with
substantial lower downside risk. In the period February 2008 to September 2015, the fund
posted an average gross return in EUR of 8.0%, against a return in EUR of -0.1% for the
Figure 11: Emerging Conservative is losing less in down markets and keeping track in up markets
20% 30%
Volatility reduction
15% Min-Max: 10-34%
Average: 19%
10%
20%
5%
0%
-5%
10%
-10%
-15%
-20% 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 feb. feb. feb. feb.
2012 2013 2014 2015
Left-hand graph: We use monthly return series based on the net asset value in EUR of Robeco Emerging Conservative Equities from January 2011-March 2015, gross of fees. The fund and
reference index have been unhedged for currency risk since 30 June 2012. Right-hand graph: Rolling 260 days annualized volatility, daily data in EUR, gross of fees, based on net asset value
of Robeco Emerging Conservative Equities. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future.
MSCI Europe. The strategy does not apply a benchmark in its investment process. The MSCI
Emerging Markets Index is therefore presented as a reference. Moreover, the fund achieved
this return with significantly lower risk – the volatility of Robeco Emerging Conservative
Equities over this period was 11.5%, compared with 14.7% for the reference index. Low-
volatility strategies are generally known to significantly reduce losses in most bear markets
and low-volatility stocks perform in line to better during years of moderate returns. It is
generally the case that low-volatility stocks lag in strong thematic bull markets. But this fund
Source: Robeco Performance Measurement. Monthly data since inception March 2011, gross of fees, based on net asset value of Robeco Emerging Conservative Equities Fund. All figures in
EUR. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Results obtained in the past are no guarantee for the future. MSCI minimum volatility base currency for optimization is USD. Annualized
(for periods longer than one year).
Portfolio Management
Research
– Risk and the Rate of Return on Financial Assets: Some Old Over recent years, Robeco’s researchers have written several
Wine in New Bottles, articles on low-volatility investing and these have been
Robert A. Haugen and A. James Heins, Journal of collected into a book. This 2015 limited edition of Robeco’s
Financial and Quantitative Analysis Fall 1972. book on the volatility effect contains 24 separate articles
divided into five parts and offers the most extensive overview
– The volatility effect: lower risk without lower return of research on the volatility effect available today.
David Blitz and Pim van Vliet, Journal of Portfolio
Management, Fall 2007, pp. 102-113 Low-volatility investing is a perfect example of how we put
our investment beliefs into practice and this is also reflected
– Enhancing a low-volatility strategy is particularly helpful in the structure of this book.
when generic low volatility is expensive
Pim van Vliet, Robeco Research Paper, June 2012 The book first focusses on the anomaly and possible
explanations for it. It then discusses how low-volatility
– How distress risk improves low-volatility strategies: lessons investing fits into a strategic portfolio and gives insights into
learned since 2006 efficient implementation.
Joop Huij, Pim van Vliet, Weili Zhou and Wilma de Groot,
Robeco Research Paper, February 2012 Finally, the book responds to questions that have been
raised on the strategy. We hope you will find inspiration and
– The volatility effect in emerging markets new insights in this book of articles.
David Blitz, Juan Pang and Pim van Vliet, Emerging
Markets Review, April 2012, pp 31-45
Robeco
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3011 AG Rotterdam
Netherlands
T +31 10 224 1 224
I www.robeco.com
More information
If you have any questions, ideas for additional research
topics or would like more information on Robeco Conservative
Equity Strategy, please contact us or visit
www.robeco.com/lowvolatility or www.robeco.com/conservative
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Important Information
This statement is intended for professional investors. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. has a license as manager of
UCITS and AIFs from the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets in Amsterdam. This document is intended to provide
general information on Robeco’s specific capabilities, but does not constitute a recommendation or an advice to buy or sell
certain securities or investment products. The prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document for the Robeco Funds
can all be obtained free of charge at www.robeco.com.