Predicting Transformer End of Life Using Transformer Thermal Life Simulation Technique
Predicting Transformer End of Life Using Transformer Thermal Life Simulation Technique
Predicting Transformer End of Life Using Transformer Thermal Life Simulation Technique
April 2011
V
ABSTRACT
Large power transformers are key components in power system networks and their
correct functioning is vital to system operation. Transformer failures can have enormous
impact on security and reliability of supply and cost. In addition, Power transformers
ageing are one of the critical issues utilities are facing, since a large number of units are
approaching or have exceeded their designed lifetime. Their replacement will involve a
considerable amount of time and cost. Therefore, developing a replacement strategy for
aged transformer populations is crucial.
This theses presents simulation technique for life assessment of the insulation of
the distribution transformer. Load and ambient temperatures are two important factors
that influence the life of insulation in transformers. The estimated load factors and
ambient temperatures are input to the IEC life consumption models to assess the
consumed life of insulation. The simulation is based on IEC 60076-7 Revision 2005
thermal model. Sumer and winter load profiles and ambient temperatures of the
transformer in Libya Electricity Company are used as the input for the simulation
together with transformer parameters from the heat run test. Hottest spot temperature
and loss-of-life are calculated. Besides the temperature, the moisture factor also has
been introduced in loss of life calculation.
VI
ABSTRAK
Tesis ini menerangkan teknik simulasi untuk menentukan jangka hayat untuk
transformer yang digunakan dalam pengedaran ekektrik. Dalam simulasi ini, beban
elektrik dan suhu udara merupakan dua faktor yang penting dalam menjangka hayat
untuk transformer. Simulasi teknik menggunakan transformer model yang terdapat
didalam standard antarabangsa IEC 60076-7. Suhu pada musim panas dan musim sejuk
untuk transformer di Libya Electircity Company telah digunakan sebagai parameter
kepada simulasi yang dijalankan bersama parameter dari heat run test. Suhu transformer
yang paling panas digunakan untuk mengira jumlah jangka hayat yang tinggal bagi
sesebuah transformer. Selain daripada suhu, faktor air juga telah diambil kira dalam
proses mengira jangka hayat untuk transformer bagi mendapat keputusan yang lebih
baik
VII
CONTENTS
TITLE i
DECLARATION ii
DEDICATION iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv
ABSTRACT v
ABSTRAK vi
CONTENTS vii
LIST OF TABLES x
LIST OF FIGURES xi
LIST OF SYMBOLS xiii
LIST OF APPENDIX xv
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Project Background 1
1.2 Problem Statement 2
1.3 Project Objectives 3
1.4 Project Scopes 3
1.5 Outline of thesis 4
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 6
2.1 Transformer insulation life 6
2.1.1 Ageing factors 7
2.1.1.1 Hydrolysis (water) 8
2.1.1.2 Oxidation (oxygen) 8
2.1.1.3 Pyrolysis (heat) 9
VIII
LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Normal insulation life value for a well dried oxygen free system at 12
the reference temperature 110 0C
2.2 Exponents used in temperature calculation 18
2.3 IEC Recommended thermal parameters for differential equations solution 26
4.1 the transformer parameters 37
4.2 Loss of life comparison for summer profile 46
4.3 Loss of life comparison for winter profile 47
4.4 Lifetime expectancy for the 20MVA, 66/11KV transformer 49
4.5 pre-exponential factor (A) estimated for activation energy of 111 52
KJ/mol from Emsley’s results
4.6 pre-exponential factor (A) estimated for activation energy of 111 52
KJ/mol from Lundgaard’s results
4.7 Estimation of moisture ageing factor with respect to the moisture 53
content in the paper
4.8 The acidity factor with acidity content in paper 56
4.9 Transformer expected life based on DP=200 with operation 58
temperature of 600C
4.10 Transformer expected life based on 50 % tensile strength retention 58
with operation temperature of 600C
XI
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF APPENDICES
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
A power transformer is a static piece of apparatus with two or more windings which,
by electromagnetic induction, transforms a system of alternating voltage and current
into another system of voltage and current usually of different values and at same
frequency for the purpose of transmitting electrical power (GECOL, 2007).
In fact, most of power transformers use paper and oil as the main of
insulation. There are three possible mechanisms that contribute to the insulation
degradation are hydrolysis, oxidation and pyrolysis. The agents responsible for the
respective mechanisms are water, oxygen and heat (temperature) (M.T.Ishak, 2009).
Indeed the temperature has been considered as the main parameter affecting the loss-
of- life of insulation. Hence, the heat produced (internal temperature) in the
transformers as a result of loading and the effect of ambient temperature is the
important factor that affecting the life of the transformer.
2
There are a few methods to measure the hotspot temperature, one of which is
using fibre optical temperature sensors positioned at the predicted hotspot of the
windings. The thermal sensors, attached to the end optical fibre, are usually placed
between the insulated conductor and spacer, and their signals via optical fibre
transmitted out of the tank. However due to the cost which may be difficult to justify
in terms of cost for every new transformer. It is not practical for retro-fitting the
existing transformers. The main difficulty with direct measurement technique is how
to accurately locate the hotspot and possible the sensors.
Most of power transformers in Libya today were installed during the 1960s.
Although some of these transformers may still be operating satisfactorily, they are
approaching or past the designed lifetime. Ageing equipment is a serious
3
contributing factor to poor system reliability and high operating costs in many
utilities. Moreover, simultaneous transformer installation will probably lead to
simultaneous failure and replacement in the future. The replacement requires a lot of
capital investment and it represents a financial burden for utilities over coming
years. Therefore it is important for utilities to know when to replace ageing
transformers so that the replacement could be scheduled in a manner to lower the
cost and give minimize impact on customers.
The data are collected from General Electricity Company of Libya which use
scada control program.
IEC 60076-7:2005 loading guide standard will be used with computer
simulation to estimate the transformer end-of-life.
Chapter 3: Methodology
In this chapter the real data of transformer data, loading and ambient temperature
from the Libya electricity company and the meteorology office are used in this
study. The last IEC60076-7 thermal model is established in Simulink/Matlab by
solving the top oil differential equation, hotspot differential equation and loss of life
of the transformer using Runge-kutta numerical method.
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
A transformer cannot wear out in the same way as a rotating machine since it has
practically no moving parts, except tap changers or cooling fan and pump. The
copper windings, the electric steel core and other metal parts of the transformer can
have a very long life if an adequate protection against corrosion is applied. However
this is not the case for insulating materials such as both Kraft papers which are
mostly made from cellulose materials and insulating oils (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
Since the cellulose materials cannot be replaced once the winding are
manufactured, the transformer life can be defined as the total time between the
initial state for which the cellulose paper is considered new to the final state for
which dielectric stress, short circuit stress or mechanical movement which could
occur in normal service would cause an electrical failure of cellulose paper. In a
brief, when paper insulation fails the transformer life has ended.
The water in the transformer comes from two sources: ingress of water from the
atmosphere, and the degradation or ageing of cellulose and oil. Hence, the oxygen
bridge between glucose rings is affected by water, causing a rupture of the chain and
the formation of two –OH groups, each attached to its monomer. The result is
reduction of DP and shortening and weakening of the fiber (W.J. Mcnutt, 1993).
In general, the mechanical life of the non upgraded paper insulation is reduced
by half for doubling in water content and in earlier studies by Fabre and Pichon it
was found that the rate of thermal deterioration of paper is proportional to its water
content. For example, decreasing the water content of the paper from 1.0% to 0.5%
doubles the life of that paper. However, later studies found that the rate of
degradation for later stages of degradation is in the form of logarithm relationship to
moisture level. Recent studies by Lundgaard of SINTEF Energy Research have
shown if the normal life is defined as ageing under dry, oxygen free conditions, then
a water control of 1% in non upgraded insulation paper can reduce life expectancy to
30% of normal life, whereas for 1% water in the thermal upgraded paper, it will
reduce the life expectancy to 60% of the normal life. If the water constant increases
to 3-4%, the life expectancy will drop to approximately 10% and 25% of normal life
for non upgrade paper insulation and upgraded paper insulation respectively
(M.T.Ishak, 2009).
Oxygen attacks the carbon atoms in the cellulose molecule to form aldehydes and
acids, releasing water, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. The bonds between
rings are weakened, leadings to lower DP. Water released by this mechanism can
also contribute to the hydrolysis effect previously mentioned (W.J. Mcnutt, 1993).
transformers. A free breathing transformer is the transformer has vents above the oil
that allow air to enter and exit as the oil expands and contracts due to variations in
the operation temperature. Reducing the oxygen level from 30,000ppm in oil to less
than 300ppm will reduce the ageing factor (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
Heat in the extreme will result in charring of the fibers, but at lesser levels it
contributes to the breakdown of individual monomers in the cellulose chain. A solid
residue is formed and gases are liberated, namely water vapor, carbon monoxide,
carbon dioxide, and hydrogen. Again DP is reduced (W.J. Mcnutt, 1993).
The paper insulation deteriorates rapidly if its temperatures are more than
90oC.The winding made of copper can hold their mechanical strength up to several
hundred degrees Celsius without deterioration and the transformer oil does not
significantly degrade below 140% (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
The IEC 354 (IEC Standard, 1991) chooses to use the Montsinger rule of thermal
degradation which is a simplified expression of the Arrhenius law of thermal
degradation. The simple exponential of Montsinger is given as
(2.1)
Many investigators have not always agreed on the criteria for which L is
representative of lifetime. Therefore, the possible way is by changing the equation
(2.1) to the rate of ageing. This can be done by inversing of the lifetime, that is
(2.2)
01
Where V is the rate ageing, M is a constant which is depended on many factors but
normally moisture content and oxygen of the insulation. Most important is the fact
that the coefficient of temperature variation, P, can be general assumed as a constant
over the temperature range of 80oC to 140oC. In this temperature range, the rate of
ageing doubles for every 6K temperature rise. This means that if an insulation
service life of N years applies for a temperature ѲoC, the temperature of (Ѳ +6) oC
will reduce the life by (N/2) years (M.T.Ishak, 2009).
The Montsinger relation can be used to obtain the relative rate of thermal ageing any
hotspot temperature over the reference temperature. For transformers designed in
accordance with IEC 60076-2 (IEC 60076-2 standard, 1997), the relative rate of
thermal ageing is taken to be equal to unity for a hotspot temperature of 98oC. This
corresponds to operation at an ambient temperature of 200C and hotspot temperature
rise of 78oC. The relative ageing rate for non thermal upgraded paper is given by
equation (2.3).
(2.3)
For ambient temperature other than 20oC, the hotspot temperature rise has to be
modified accordingly. For example, when the ambient temperature is 30 oC, the
allowable hotspot rise is 68oC
The general definition of “end of life” for an insulation system is the point at which
the insulation no longer performs reasonably; from the viewpoint of insulation’s
purpose, it seems only right to consider this point at which the insulation system no
longer maintains the majority of its original dielectric strength. However as paper
insulation ages, the dielectric strength of the paper does not decrease significantly
even well after the paper has become brittle. Therefore, the point at which the paper
loses enough strength to withstand the mechanical forces is regarded as the practical
point of end of life for insulation system.
00
Another possible way to define an end point for transformer life is by doing
functional life tests on the actual transformers. However this method is only suitable
for small transformers not the power transformers because it is not economically
practical.
Table 2.1, in (IEEE Standard C57.19, 1995 and M.T .Ishak, 2009), lists
various end of life criteria or normal insulation life for a transformer with thermally
upgraded paper, in a well-dried and oxygen free condition at the reference
temperature of 110 0C.
01
Table 2.1: Normal insulation life value for a well dried oxygen free system at the
reference temperature 110 0C (IEEE Standard C57.19, 1995 and M.T.Ishak, 2009)
Hours Years
50 % retained tensile strength of insulation
65,000 7.42
(former IEEE std C57.92-1981)
Table 2.1, shows that the IEEE (IEEE Standard C57.19, 1995) standard gives
the user the freedom to choose end of life criteria base on their requirement which is
most applicable to their needs. Therefore we can say that there are no standard
values for determining the transformer insulation life end point.
All these normal insulation life definition associate the loss of life with paper
losing its ability to withstand mechanical stresses. The main point here is that if the
unit is run for 20.55 years (for example) at 1100C hotspot temperature, the life of the
insulation will expire. If it runs hotter, the life will expire sooner, and if it runs
cooler, the life will extend.
In these theses DP equal 200 is chosen as the end of life criterion and would
give the insulation life of 150,000 hours under full load condition for IEEE loading
Guide. This method has been suggested by some researches based on the
measurement of the degree of polymerization. A new Kraft paper has DP in the ring
1000-1200 after going through the factory drying process. The DP drops to lower
value with time.
02
On contrary, the IEC Loading Guide gives no value for expected life. However,
based on design and experience, the life of a transformer has been estimated as 30
years service life of the insulation system with 980C for hotspot temperature for
Kraft paper by assuming that the insulation system is well preserved (i.e. without
oxygen, water or contaminations) (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
2.4.1 Introduction
Transformer losses are produced by the electrical current flowing through the coils
and the magnetic field alternating in the core (G. Pop, M. Chindris and R. Bindilu,
2009). The losses are calculated using measured voltage and current. This allows the
meter to continue registering Kwh, Kvarh and Kvah (unaffected by compensation).
Transformer losses are generally classified into no load losses and load losses as
shown in Figure 2.2. Transformer losses can be determinate with the following
mathematical expression (G. Pop, M. Chindris and R. Bindilu, 2009).
(2.4)
Where:
The no load losses (referred to as excitation losses, core losses, or iron losses) are a
very small part of the power rating of the transformer, usually less than 1%.
However, these losses are considered constant over the lifetime of the transformer
(do not vary with load), and thus they generally represent a sizeable operating
expense, especially if energy costs are high. Therefore, accurate measurements are
essential in order to evaluate individual transformer performance accurately. They
include losses due to magnetization of the core, dielectric losses in the insulation,
and winding losses due to the flow of the exciting current and any circulating
currents in parallel conductors. No load losses are the losses in a transformer when it
is energized but not supplying load. The no load losses contain tow main
components, hysteresis loss and eddy current loss (G. Pop, M. Chindris and R.
Bindilu, 2009).
The load losses are commonly called copper losses or short circuit losses. They
are in accordance with convention subdivided into I2R losses, Eddy current losses
and stray losses (G. Pop, M. Chindris and R. Bindilu, 2009).
I2R losses (Dc losses) occur in transformer windings and are caused by the
resistance of the conductors. The magnitude of these losses increases with the square
of the load current and are proportional to the resistance of the windings.
Eddy current losses due to magnetic fields caused by alternating current, also
occur in the windings .Stray losses are due to losses in structures other than
windings, such as clamps, tank or enclosure walls, etc.; this can be expressed as (G.
Pop, M. Chindris and R. Bindilu, 2009):
Ps= I2.R + PEC + PSL (2.5)
where:
I2.R : losses due value of the current and resistance of the transformer;
PEC : Eddy Current Losses;
PSL : Stray Losses.
All these losses cause heating in all parts of transformer and this heat must be
taken away to avoid high temperature because they will cause decrease of insulation
and the normal life of transformer (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
Figure 2.3: Transformer Thermal Diagram (A. Al-Nadabi and H. al-Riyami, 2009).
Several assumptions are made in such a thermal diagram and the assumptions are
(A. Al-Nadabi and H. al-Riyami, 2009).
The change in the oil temperature inside and along the winding is linearly
increasing from bottom to top,
The increase in the winding temperature from bottom to top is linear with a
constant temperature difference g,
At the winding top the hot- spot temperature is higher than the average
temperature g rise of the winding,
The difference in the temperature between the hot-spot and the oil at the of
the winding is defined as Hg , where H is a hot-spot factor.
For many years, the value of hot-spot factor, H was taken to be approximately
10% of the average gradient, that is, the maximum gradient was considered to be 1.1
times the average gradient.
06
CIGRE Working Group12-09 did the thermal tests and collected the data during
the tests to quantify the hot-spot factor used in the IEC loading guide (A. A.
Elmoudi, 2006). These analysis data showed that the value of the hot-spot factor is
1.1 for distribution transformers and 1.3 for medium and large transformers. These
values for the hot-spot factor depending on the transformer size, short circuit
impedance and winding design.
The hot spot temperature is normally located at the top of winding this is due to
leakage flux concentration near to the top of the winding which increase the eddy
current losses and in consequence, the temperature. The hot spot temperature for a
transformer under any load k is equal to the sum of the ambient temperature, the top
oil temperature rise over ambient and the hot spot temperature rise over top oil. This
can be expressed by the equation below:
HS = TA +TO + HSR (2.6)
Where:
TA is the ambient temperature, (oC)
TO is the oil temperature rise over ambient, (oC)
HSR is the hot spot temperature rise over top oil temperature, (oC)
HS is the ultimate hot spot temperature, (oC)
The top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature is given by the
following equation:
(2.7)
where:
TORR is the top oil temperature rises over ambient at rated load.
R is the ratio of load losses at rated current to no load losses.
K is the load factor.
n is an empirically derived exponent that depends on the cooling method.
The hot spot temperature rise over top oil temperature is given by the
following equation:
(2.8)
where:
07
The exponent n and m approximately account for changes in load loss and oil
viscosity because of the change in temperature. These exponents are different for
different cooling modes as shown in Table 2.2, (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
The direct temperature measurement techniques using fibre optic sensors are
currently available and are in use for some larger power transformers. Ideally, this is
the best method is to directly measure the winding hot spot temperature (A. A.
Elmoudi, 2006). In this method a sensor, made of photo-luminescent material and
attached to the end of optical fiber (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004). These
devices are capable of indicating the temperature only at the spots where sensors are
located. The sensors are usually placed between insulated conductor and radial
spacer. CIGERE Working Group (CIGRE Working Group12-09 survey, 1995)
suggests the eight sensors would be adequate if placed in the winding location where
the highest temperatures are expected. However due to the cost which may be
difficult to justify in terms of cost for every new transformer and also it is not
practical for retro-fitting the existing transformers.
08
In oil cooled transformers, the oil provides a medium for both cooling and
insulation. Heat from core, windings and structural components is dissipated by the
process of the oil circulation. The heat is finally transmitted either to atmospheric air
or water. The process of transferring heat from a transformer involves three different
heat transfer mechanisms which are conduction, convection and radiation
(M.T.Ishak, 2009). In the oil cooled transformers, convection plays the most
important role and conduction the least important (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde,
2004). The conduction is the transfer of heat through a material by direct contact,
whereas the convection is the transfer of heat in a fluid (oil) as a result of the
movement of the fluid itself. The radiation is the transfer of heat via electromagnetic
waves through space. There are four common types of cooling are:
They have been used in the industry and will be explained in more details.
11
This type of cooling is most common used in the practice. The ONAN cooling
transformers have their windings and core cooled by oil naturally circulation
(thermosiphon effect). The oil is then cooled by air which is naturally cooled.
Moreover, Oil is kept in circulation by the gravitational buoyancy in the closed-loop
cooling system as shown in Figure 2.4.
Figure 2.4: ONAN cooling diagram (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004)
The heat developed in active parts is passed on to the surrounding oil through
the surface transfer (convection) mechanism. The oil temperature increases and its
specific gravity drops, due to which it flows upwards and then into the coolers. The
oil heat gets dissipated along the colder surfaces of the coolers which increase its
specific gravity, and it flows downwards and enters the transformer tank from the
inlet at the bottom level (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004).
transformer and radiators (M.T. Ishak, 2009). The ONAN cooling has the following
advantages. They are (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004).
As the transformer losses increases, the number and size of the radiators that are
required to cool the oil must increase. Eventually, a point is reached where air and
natural convection are not adequate to remove the heat and air must be forced
through the radiators by motor- driven fans (John J. Winder, Jr, 2002), This type of
cooling is termed as ONAF (Oil Natural and Air Forced) cooling, as shown in
Figure 2.5.
These fans generate forced air flow in the radiators to increase the oil circulation
rate from tank to radiators. This type of cooling improves the efficiency of the
transformer to increase the capability to operate at a high load, but this flow rate is
relatively low. Because of this, the heat carrying (or dissipating) capacity of the oil
is low. The heat carrying capacity can be defined as (S.V.Kulkani and S.A.
Khaparde, 2004).
Q = m C P ( T Out - T In ) (2.9)
11
where Q is heat flow in W, m is mass flow rate in kg/s, Cp is specific heat in J/ (kg °
C) and temperatures Tout and Tin are in °C. For the given transformer oil inlet (Tin)
and top oil (Tout) temperatures,
Figure 2.5: ONAF cooling diagram (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004)
Although the cooling capacity is greatly increased by the use of forced air,
increasing the loading to take advantage of the increased capacity will increase the
temperature gradients within the transformers. A point is reached where the internal
temperature gradient limit the ability to increase load any further. The solution is to
increase the oil velocity by pumping oil as well as forcing air through the radiators.
This type of cooling called OFAF (Oil Forced and Air Forced) cooling. The usual
pump placement is at the bottom of the radiators as shown in Figure 2.6, forcing oil
from the radiator outlets into the bottom of the transformer tank in the Sam direction
as natural circulation but at a much higher velocity (John J. Winder, Jr, 2002). By
12
direction the flow of oil within the transformer windings, reduce considerably the
temperature between the top and the bottom of the radiators (M.T. Ishak, 2009).
Figure 2.6: OFAF cooling diagram (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004)
In OFAF cooling type the oil forced from the pump into the transformer, its flow is
governed by the least resistance path as well as the buoyancy. Hence, part of the oil
may not enter either windings or core, and may from parallel path outside these two.
Thus, the top oil temperature may reduce because of the mixture of hot oil coming
from the windings and the cool oil coming from the pump. This in turn reduces the
effectiveness of radiators. The solution is to improve the heat dissipation rate by the
oil forced and directed in the windings through the paths. This type of cooling called
13
ODAF (Oil Direct and Air Forced) cooling, as shown in Figure 2.7, (S.V.Kulkani
and S.A. Khaparde, 2004).
Figure 2.7: ODAF cooling diagram (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004)
ODAF type of cooling is used in most of the large rating transformer .one
disadvantages of ODAF cooling is the increased pressure loss because of the ducting
system used for directing the oil flow (S.V.Kulkani and S.A. Khaparde, 2004).
Most of transformers around the world including Libya are designed according to
the IEC standard. Therefore, in order to investigate the temperature related loss of
life for transformers designed according to IEC standard, it is appropriates to use the
IEC thermal model. The latest IEC 60076-7 thermal model (IEC 60076-2, 2005),
36
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