nlalsybi Vidyalekhans

DATE
TAO PAGE

Mulkiple Reaesslon
lec9otoitbclassic hssing pmcepaedich
desill
HLLSePice

0 1Distaore r m centen
inea ebl Size paice- Kie:1B6P421 k ize
RO24, Relaticashiplolainly deakj
ipeken_ghladi_t lice- FL5,3H-Sjsoiadis
paie
0:37 i s is abo weak
e cntadd mth tp sayR=0"63,becauaetha.
2e,dist)031
miget beapaoleicro blLo hoo CoRRELCei
ni.ezas oe moYe aoa om sih,size ince0ses
1

AAToteapreingouliple. xegressiao tuodioon

haiple.aicez ha3,o04252s1ze50
w.
distance
Simgerice2LS,a14 505 distance
Gmoss eect n simple e it saus disti
ncreea pice falla iy34,505, tis-
axacomputedpNe ange a asuiatiom AL_
oheaackms hatintluance priteUndipeckgik
alaoCaptanes ha efert aoter Nasiabla due to iu-
cc elatjontoith eo
Ne ellectIn muiple e a i t saus0distdinieH-
pme fall 55,606proandod size
hetiaeSaomains same Etect a distame rice
Condrolina pex nase sine

istance
andieh elleet à dit.m_pmce (
Si2e LDiincreasea aneT Lice1)
 cel,
Inexcel, alues,
in
o
2elect nuJip\e coJuons t
ulple ragressjun
Vidyalekhan
DATE
PAG

uulbipl ple gessiun ps u toisolaet.e the Cot

h 0 0iindapende.nt
nde vasuicialaa and ectract. net elHest
vaiable m inal predichioo Becauait is imptaeive
n eV a i a b l e

khaut
ethen vaLable Aemains ixed

Same size sihe bouse dj25mile, diaio miltea,

D So,a00f4:2

Heneuwe oeed ta coaside ne eect

2 M50,O00-S 5 006 *S: 2 0
.

aile distA, pice fell y EtCASS,A06)

d 5mile dae0 0il

loino 0 7
60,000
Heresince noino o S i n 0 , 0 s
idn qoss ellect
1 mile distTpiLe e y &oss (24so5
LEo 4252, So0
pzS0,00O-430, 50 5 X5

L6aMulk=a62
Similaclu size alinee Coe
Asi2empiaS162,faco less thah-
roselac
is be.causeohen uoe do not
52 his
nek eect Soe
distagcebce säeol-sets
Cont Ror ogen_huaa
a d i s t a n o h e fact toat
ect cauntehat_
pically ocated fomthen num cib
heeect incceLed haauae size

O.tNaiable nat
anogross
coeicieoR
esioo potential
tho Aeqress ito, Ihene con be
udadim pice
a s i a b l e that a e c
thep
Eemdependent
Soaluwuys be o dho l3okot
oxinoidsyoo schoals
t_CoHain_zeno in intenva o make
PE Values Jdoo
sulabionships_bls each indepenuh
e ane irean
Vaahle andhousepn
 Alsaus u adusted R t
but samna
dbb no. aind.VoouLalbl.as idyalelekhan
Vaiubla, DATE
depondent PAGE

Pesidua analyais.
SKinto nece n0gpaaiona,plot ra9A0idLala aga
enc indapenden Nosuiabl

Hebero siadasic

QuntPping predichve. pasen nulbpl@ unean _saaes

meana pencentage.sasuabim nplained
thoNatiation in balh o independen vai ahla
Cannot decreae adding oa indepemdenr watahig
Oe Coinccease RoAoo lat hat uonld ka
cacainglyadding independent saaiaMa untilLoe haug
coseniei X Avepttmg-
Adited R 1-|Ci-R) «n
--
MnaDasencdhaos DD independsnr vanabk
elps n_prent ovenpting slighHy Aaducingh
ach kLoe add unlesA a il
Noable eplaing enuyab addiiooa va9zÀance tp îhcreoe
l t mohe than ho. adiuatmert factor decyenaea it

n ou9example adiusted R_ muäple aoqeasai onY-

moesePaanadilated Ba eien simpe 0.ga0am3
sh ich oneanaLo aalLgaineA nalueLpedichve pou
CoSideninghotyindependent yamiublea ssiqulanes
odeve copooe p8imA Ld dependont E
 Vidyalekhan
DATE

e i t i gHOhe
o / h e
00page 0sec a animabio.
547:9
Cs t A. (54 a9Ksecoads +0: G a pog)

pageto be educed kr cost$+0,000

Ho
any Hours educi un - l63beo
suctioE,alb:dnllos

LE lo3/o.94s 128 pouge

R e d u

Paa t o CuD

xulticallineaoi
prokblomseve added a d
bsLLsing pmce
gu
asiable
ndepaadent callad Lot size,
adepandent Eo_O-91 prdithve
sted ent dm O:A
CusY
Qun a d i a t e d

90pesaion haa impcoved

ho 0aL,ohith
poe o e t e o n o _ Oto
ferhDuae-sie xelabionship od size k
pnice
buk p- Signiiconlinear
neano mgen bluo Ao ca moe ind.Va,
beatihuteddo
celonuo
Tais can lotsize 4
bane sine,
Here Co RREL( Naiaglar aO highly4
mareindependege

ohen hoo ar issgenbiulaprujax

oherMuhilinen

Cosaeated, cme fobusesize,

si2e is a00d proxy

+Heelot

0iagnobina andreating collineauitg

significaxe f r ya
adiuted R-Nalua uaith las va.
Hiah p-value dind
oa i o deck iÇ the his waud
h aneLo ind.
vaniable
Siseoih
additim a vaiables
hose tuoo
strmq comrelL b l o
sgat
p r h l e m , s i n s e s e l o h o o s h i p

fatecastins, Dot t00 c h

gmnaoomd. nrease
pected to hold bige problQm
netoclaiunship,
uncdonalanding eNaiake,
Which
drop_ame
esamplo size ox m
mancgenCoe

usuubjerive
baaed
to_dnop
 dyalekhan
DATE
AGE.

ALaaaed vasuables
exam plapmeviousyeans aduetatingcar
haue an ehecE on this yeaos sales
eincomporsata dalayed ebect c an-ind.
aadeg Vaiable uaingra aAhed MaN
Prey
ea Sales Ad e Disc.crdina lat
5 QunTearesim asAu
93 1 35k out 2 Vars0LnA
od
SSK 4Sk
65k SS Coae in 2 a0ua
3: 60k -LastuGo0 dao pont

a n r e a s eCogged vauoble n l u oe bolieve_

beneis adding it suiueigh baLoss a doda pi
ad epenalky" imposed adusknent to R
iaualltor tima seaiea data
*Dummy vaoLabea
lo incorpocate qualitative vaualeaeg flarr in ada,
for n Cateaor Ae (ma) dummu wauabla.(Bnt
Adding edumn i n t F lavo O_or 1
BA
Saleaa -631Kt 533kaDihtlavorSo 5 Ad
hi ans that alten caotrdllina a r odu. Cet,-
o Salea ono 53SK highe ohen "OintPlavor
used in Ahe ada.
phicalg, i oeang A0gp10gAiuo Lne coma
nint ond oheA feesaup Plaveita he venlical dist
tellaa
aNLginrease in_Scuesi-
Sopeoiloil he saoee both,
sinceLootaeRUng far plauor,ady. oili
Ady
qesa
 Vidyalekhano
DATE.
PAGE

sianiEicance dummyr p-Vauu

e flavars,set forflavoxvav22Nar 3
L
that -lav layo inhat yeon od
ohenlevas O
C
.
d
RunniogSimple_e
sinple_R only 1dumm v i s equal

.då dod oesales in mintksauhlavos

opalat

e
0 d i n doean
uwuld
sd tox botb popuuakions
aet p - Y a l aO:43 Loe caot conclude hat ha
O e g e t p-aluue

mEan Salele diL Lghoneaiuoalavor is dillee

DD

neCoeiciet admmy Vau a th0

TteR
n hedep van Mhe Stated cotego
a a chana
Con pazod to he toe CaseCntegod

ecision Analysis-

Decision r e e s Blockbusley

-Decisiao nade, AlE toe Deo eLa

can_chmaose-
de cision oaken
O-chace nodea Muläoe possilble Dext
Rdtopbecaue d mcentunir
oe
xm let to súge in tre ahden in which
nae
illeenlually Astahmime oein 0Dulb
gociate som quontifiables o
the branchas
to
nodes
ble0ssignigsuttonoeak probabiutia to schare
node should be mutually exhuocik
banc ols rm Sxme
shstudd be cellectivela eahalutive ( Apool.= io0
 dyalekhan
GATE
PAKAL.

Eapectad man abay valua.

a u b i p l e he. OLCama (oAlscuiu
valua y its pobco i liky K Dos lo-521acdwtsc
LLo2)
eMlo 3n6Ho 50-(o.2x)=1-o
1M
Pomy Dea)
a e can e my a oeaalea
K2 deagW:|
Can com poo@atematyaoptio
Can colopse the chonaenode

Atd2cision node edhoose bat &OY Sek Sele.chi

phioo oihbat Emy aemcing oftersrLning ho trec
Sanbng pm leah nada Calculcito Emy at each cano
Sahng
neda, Cotlapse hpancha to a pant, Rplace-chene nod
Loith emy. AA ech decisiao nodoprunin a DHTe
.oc i callad Ltding back ha derisin aree
Rdev Ont csts
as inCiesed in He payt, bejoxe a decisiao i
Caotábuta. o tot) cb aall scerasiu tak caudá
e h ahA o_decisim is mde and hua dheuld nt he
heasingo9tha ddcisio unk sts.
aSt sdevant_cssuch a eppertuity cosa
and mm- manekruy cess shouldalso ba includod
ine HoAZo0s:
Choose a ume borizao aven hich e gLansitu tho
Outcsmex do decAsi ma
Csmpana Coh A at a Cmmm pi in i a
Eonka ale d a i nold at_end muus datusoin
ovd discaunAtd_To Ahun pl03en Nanus
 Vidyalekhar

Canithe
enlea>e a co oy 2 ye Pa n *0

abalt
2 t 3000
yaua c n a ecn
Reseing
22 e I S , At t O , oe anauy
nenoi 209 2
Preae valuae C3ao0)
, LSE4 oD
If
o0* +00 2}LB66.6

P.Y 8Seling .3600 (1 o5)

s124691
e h0o0 a a ) : o 9
Costing-

s,gingbetker
noea ing,.
T09etou

Atiere coshplouo -initial cash low

Praser vahuez P.Y A
Ne vesen Nalue_V 1
(4+

ime a c l e a n : 2 L e a
senyice CstaS1£0/ mo0A
pCIdiet)as
l 2 cliena)aio
Nalua. iU's pme24 200 h
pno cient26h
x2O-6a$io0
dleaningo:ix1to-35

Aa Emy4 Bill
emplay_deaning_senin ce
should Ao Comtnle
Thi i l Ceaaina he-
spenda 2 hal
Note nc i bil deimsns gbe h s
sales
oo he ahle to make
OPPORIUAIT Cosf

aSensitivita analuyaia
breake/en
value and c p a r t z0e
Calcalata the ValueLeMY Suitches
decusn
ncebain sdtcome
oxthe geutside
actual utcme miatbe
L o e belieue ott
the
optimal decisim 9cmsiden
changing Qun
hat gome, tnua cutomevalue ingue
analu4ai ond 1 to ntdhgn _pehne
 dyalekhand
DATE
PAGE

ENaluaäng ae- monetay CanSeN uece

hene can be othe attos intRnpe0a
Paae lS e knao that omking
i i n and is ndesicaple So, we bave FeCo
ustroation subbmcded mom Cach
Tu £my 0 6-F)0:5 Co-P)+0:2(-2-e
::4-F_
fo Lmeal cven xalue MY gMYA
F=o uoM

mgoska cosequae, toALL scenariosecked ty

A Decisiossensihyityto pmobaai luty

a Siua o piap p Ea lut oot abad
Hhe pao e prohl bloc lute) p .
hu pcabc lackluarer ): 0:s=p
p-0:4
eov* SEmVponj bp-o:u<L
EOVe pso 233
The bxeak.even valua oxprsch: dbhcklade 223:3
T eane icmp hat pCBlochater) 23:no noed t
put addi Hia epork o nepne findpCBlocklwahkr
G P E M E 2 a i l L N A N

Q uncyle tn ule leas 5k

e y iappeimad. Hoo hihshold bo
03

o Bx20 +o2C20-9]< o 1s)oisco-D.

D in he_doean t_uih_Lyev't lantdaen u

30k L snly raise 20k in Purdyaisng 3
 Vidyalekhan
OATE
PAOE

Decision Pnaly sis 2:-

oiot 9
Jeint masgina)robabilities:
A A T o 1AL - Joirt pobobilities
A
eCAB PCA PLa -ginal probabilit
PCA,LAa aPCB
eCAL
PCAD
occuhting simuitaneoualy
cob ispmdba kLoOexeola
ispah. a z v e n sapectiva he
Mooginal mcb
arptoes Nuricle . JL's sum a all ieit.
Varidhles,
nchabies oat sNert uwitb ohen
PCA,8,24 PCAJB
PCAak Bp)
pCA)

Ceondiimal ababilities:
oCdhlt
PCA )s|
obability A given 8has dhtad

dependence:
independexe and
Statistical ind
B a a called stctiscally
Tao axents A
nd
doex got ted about pob
ccChed
kinLoing e A haa
A occweing,and vie-yensa
and P.c8|A-PcB)

PLAle) RcA)
Bla so
Tota cors 2 1000 B u e - S L e n e o -S o _ T = 0 0

uoAo stereo apo

No séeneo= 600
ark
20o/lo00 20
PCStereo) 2
P(Steseolaclk) 2o7
20/ i
Pstesen| Blue) E cas 20. fven i
n al
dstereo info
So pab, dm hexe moe
blue, we s i l l
blakor
 idyalekhan
DATE
PAGE
e n t s n o t ind. 0a callad Aapendant

Stene() do seenCa 3)_ Tota

Tpst) a60
do TDsCT) 50
350
Toto o0- 1000
PcoNS)= bo
PCATD: 65
PCTS): \5a
200
25)
pcoT S) 257 p CotlodS) =+S

35d

Here wecle.sly See PCI|s) + PCT)

So,we_Can inRen h a t Steeo
Potecio oa oot he
Le
vnao Bhan statisically nd
i a and.oml selocded ca.
has stenes,
enanceS it haiinA a
t prokech sistem
aro
_oe did ot hue his eoteninfo
han hat

S ndependente:
PCA) PCe
PcelA) -PCB)
PCA and ) PCA) * ce
 Vidyalekhari
PASE
a

Moinal OLuecome C
OttCome A PCCIA
roocabilities,

PCA)TOukcome O
PCOLAN

Conditionc
prob.
Oeeconne
PCe-
PCLBy-
Oultome. B(
Outcone
PCOTBT

Sodirees
Herin
14 a3

randomly
neicmditiomal prob aat a
oha is it's_scsdine
given
Can1s conned in sauce,
gle cie.d = 35
35/
Sodine_J. 1 | 4 0
PCSouce|
can is6he
rardorlyselected

Pocob thc a
it's canned in _oil?
Haiven nct
e a i n ga i l n : 5 1 # 4 6 6 4

PloiShdines
PCSandineaiL)
ar
-3.ohich is aegen
6/4434
PCScadinea |0ills
 Epected value. oh Peosec
hdyal
Intormotin.
ekhan
Sebuppa limit o ohat price we
oe shsd
foranadditáomal Info.
To Calculata gvP:
onstauct deisim tree aih 2 choic.
noice
or
dont buy- pepect In to
vei my Byinfo"-£mmv a Oeo
A eve_eaceed the codt
to acQLL
u tha info. it, hen

Emy o6) Predicr SotoCe

u Jno Padicr
robled
g P12 O:b-o.1 Pedic -
O-2
Om+
Le Can pay-
Emy o.um Se e
p to O4

o Qetting.
betto Chani

PCSeeno,oCT), PCc)-Prvr c6 D t Sour

Ezpe.cteA yaluo ansomple into
An above exarap le, uwe ue mankee
reaech
he Conyuee
Souce
Paskenor Probabiliias Oncodti
PCSexerr C), PCrobleTLoo )
PCChaontUo
P SanTAgn), PT[guy indo
on Soute
Hgh
 Vidyalekhard
o

pdaingpiorProbabi lütie:-
so-So that T wil s i k e oil in oilidd
So_chonte
SO-So

TCo0len testPCtve oi)-90/ Plve )do ) 30

PCtve)=? PCvelsi1)= 10/. P-ve.[plocil 707
pCave):2
PLve oi)=P (t+veoi) 09-Pave L6iD
Pcoi)
PCtve oi) = 0'46
PC No ei)
PCae 20:60 PC-ve)- O 4 0

iSKAmlusis-

eao risk propi3- (ist the possible cutcome

values a decisicnopti*oin_a tabla, me pr each opo
Ran out com3 ealc. prob, cach distint_atCome 1al
alu ale tne utcome elchve to net worth andYOLD
at-tudo tndads su'sk

e_a meutra in handlungik.

RisK_aese, Risk neuterd or Risu seekig