24th May, 2010

INDIAN ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES INDUSTRY

Highlights
SECTORAL REPORT
• India is the third largest market for alcoholic beverages in the
world. It has over 325 distilleries, which are scattered throughout
the country, having an installed capacity for production of 3,540
million litres of alcohol.

• The Indian alcohol industry with estimated market value of

Rs.340 bn has been growing at a steady pace of approximately
10% p.a. and (this growth rate) is expected to continue to grow at
this rate in the future.

Janaki Rao.U • The alcohol industry is very important from the Government’s
Analyst revenue perspective. It generates an estimated Rs. 30,000 crores
Equity Research Desk per annum in spite of the fact that the per capita consumption of
[email protected] liquor in India ranks among the lowest in the world.

V.S.R. Sastry • India is emerging as the largest global market for whisky,
Vice President registering sales of more than 60 million cases per annum. Other
Equity Research Desk spirits (Brown – Brandy/Rum; White – Gin, Vodka, Rum)
91-22-25276077 constitute the rest 40% of IMFL market.
[email protected]
• With rapid growth in the middle class segment, increasing
consumerism, rising disposable income levels, rising standards of
Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D.
living, increase in number of discerning customers, and increase
Chief Research Officer
in the number of liquor brands and categories available to the
[email protected]
consumer, there will invariably be an increased growth of all
segments of liquor industry.

• The alcohol industry is highly competitive with many local and

international players vying for a share in the market. There are
primarily three types of market in the liquor industry.

• Government of India encourages foreign investments as well as

upgradation of technology in the field of non-molasses based
alcoholic drinks and beer, provided the Indian partner is in
possession of a valid Industrial License under Industries Act,
1951.

• The foreign players are likely to have market grip over the super
premium and premium segments and the Indian manufacturers
would see a reduced market share.

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CONTENTS

1. Sector Overview

2. Current Trends

3. Profile of top three Indian Companies

4. SWOT Analysis

5. Conclusion

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1. Sector Overview

The Indian Alcoholic Beverages industry is a combination of branded liquors and the
low-priced commodity segment that is referred to as Country Liquor. The branded
beverage space is further classified into Spirits, Beer and Wine. The Spirits space
consists of Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), Bottled In Origin (BIO) beverages and the
Bottled In India (Bll) spirits.

The IMFL industry has been growing at a fast pace of 13% and for the year ended March
31, 2009 stood at 214 mio cases. Aspiration and higher disposable income propels
growth at the top end, while new consumers and uptrading from country liquor spurs
growth at lower end. Karnataka, where Country liquor was banned in July 2007 has
particularly seen a spurt in volumes of the low-end brands.

Manufacture of alcohol

Alcohol is a member of a class of organic compounds containing carbon, hydrogen and

oxygen,considered as hydroxyl derivatives of hydrocarbons, produced by the replacement
of one or more hydrogen atoms by one or more hydroxyl (-OH) GROUPS. In India, the
bulk of alcohol is being produced from sugarcane molasses. Molasses is a thick viscous
bye-product of the sugar industry, which is acidic in nature, rich in salts; dark brown in
colour and it also contains sugar, which could not be crystallized.

For manufacturing alcohol, the Molasses is diluted with water into a solution containing
15-16% of sugar. This solution is then inoculated with yeast strain and is allowed to
ferment at room temperature. The fermented wash is distilled in a series of distillation
columns to obtain alcohol of adequate/ requisite strength and quality/ specification.

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This alcohol is used for various purposes, both potable and industrial. For manufacture
of alcoholic beverages, the alcohol is, if required, matured and blended with malt
alcohol (for manufacture of whisky) and diluted to requisite strength to obtain the
desired type of liquor/ Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL). This is then bottled in
bottles of various sizes for the convenience of consumers.

(Source: www.aidaindia.org)

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India is the third largest market for alcoholic beverages in the world. It has over 295
distilleries, which are scattered throughout the country, having an installed capacity for
production of 3,540 million litres of alcohol. There has been a steady increase in the
production of alcohol in the country, with the production doubling from 887.2 million
litres in 1992-93 to 1,654 million litres in 1999-2000 and is estimated to treble to 2300
million litres by 2007-08. The licenced capacity is concentrated mainly in 3 states, viz.,
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamilnadu. According to the Reserve Bank of India’s
latest Report on ‘State finances: A study of budgets of 2006-07’, Liquor (Excise) alone is
slated to yield Rs. 29,533.48 Cr, making it the largest revenue source for the States
after Sales Tax (being Rs. 1,20,709.15 Cr).

Status of alcohol industry in India

In earlier years the policy of the Indian government was to discourage the consumption
of alcoholic beverages. This even went so far as to involve total prohibition in some
states. However, the resulting problems of illicit distillation, the leakage of government
excise revenue and the problems involved in enforcement, led to a review of this policy.
The import of potable alcohol is subject to government licensing. Alcoholic drinks carry
a very heavy tax burden which is itself a major source of revenue for state governments.
Liquor manufactured in India is categorized as beer, country liquor and Indian Made
Foreign Liquor (IMFL). IMFL production includes wines, whisky, rum, vodka, gin and
brandy. Draught beer has been recently introduced and has done well in the places in
which it has been introduced. Canned beer is an even more recently introduced new
beverage. Production of Alcohol drinks from non-molasses sources is very small in the
country compared to the total production of Alcoholic drinks. It is in this context that
Government of India encourages foreign investments as well as upgradation of
technology in the field of non-molasses based alcoholic drinks and beer, provided the
Indian partner is in possession of a valid Industrial License under Industries
(Development & Regulation) Act, 1951.

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According to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest report on ‘State finances: A study of
budgets of 2006-07; liquor (excise) alone is slated to yield Rs. 29,533.48 crore, making
it the largest revenue source for States after sales tax (Rs. 1,20,709.15 crore). The
alcohol industry is very important from the Government’s revenue perspective. It
generates an estimated Rs. 30,000 crores per annum in spite of the fact that the per
capita consumption of liquor in India ranks among the lowest in the world. Indian
Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) accounts for only a third of the total liquor consumption in
India. Most IMFLs are cheap and are priced below Rs. 200 per bottle. Alcohol sales
proceeds account for 45% of the total revenue collection in the country. Whisky
accounts for 60% of the liquor sales; while rum, brandy and vodka account for 17%,
18% and 6% respectively. MNC's share is only 10% and they have been successful only
in the premium and super premium range.

Industry Structure and Developments

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In India, alcohol is largely produced from sugarcane molasses. The value chain in a
distillery industry comprises of raw material suppliers (Sugar Mills), distillers, and
intermediaries (Govt., wholesalers and retail dealers). The important end users are
institutional (e.g. Armed Forces) and retail buyers. The distillery industry today consists
broadly of two parts, one - potable liquor and two - industrial alcohol. In India alcohol
is largely produced from sugarcane molasses. The industry is cyclical in nature, as
sugarcane production itself is affected every 3-4 years with monsoon and other factors,
resulting in low availability of molasses. Industrial Alcohol is a source of raw material
for various alcohol-based chemical industries and is used in manufacture of ethyl
acetate, mono ethylene glycol, acetic acid, various esters and pesticides. It also finds
extensive use in the pharmaceutical and paints industry.

There is a huge demand for these products in the market. Liquor industry is uniqueas
there are certain key variable factors that influence its viability and growth such as
duty structures, excise rules and regulations, product-pricing, marketing initiatives to
promote the brand, distribution and several regulatory issues like licenses to
manufacture, labelling etc. On issues of excise and duties, these are fast coming to
World Trade Organization (WTO) levels. The industry does not have many entry barriers
and with the opening up of the economy there are multiple ways of market entry; it
could be Bottled in India (BII) or Bottled in Origin (BIO) or Bulk Import and locally
bottled. While this will enable world-class quality brands to enter India, there is a fear
that the stagnating markets overseas may trigger dumping of cheap liquor into the
Indian market, which will not be a healthy trend for both the Indian consumer as well
as the domestic liquor players.

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Taxation being a major contributing factor to the increase in the price at the consumer
level, the trend to go in for cheaper products in key whisky and rum segment has been
on the increase of late. The lower category whisky segment has been growing rapidly in
recent years. The lower per capita consumption in India, the high volume in the
unorganized cheap segment of the spirits business with its likely transition into the
organized sector, the changing consumer perception of alcohol and the progressive
regulatory changes are the key drivers to the growth of this industry.

The IMFL market primarily comprising of Whisky, Rum, Brandy, Gin and Vodka, has
grown over the past decade. The IMFL industry in India is estimated at over 160 million
cases and is growing steadily. Consumption is largely skewed towards whisky, which
accounts for more than half of the market. The whisky segment is further classified into
Scotch, Super Premium, Premium, Prestige/Deluxe, Regular, Medium and Cheap
segment. Brandy, Rum and Whites (Gin, Vodka and others) account for the balance.
The Country Liquor market is basically a regional market and there exist a large
number of small manufacturers spread across various States. Major IMFL
manufacturers, however, have a countrywide presence.

Indain Market: Present Status & Products

Currently the industry is dominated by 3 brewers, the United Breweries, Shaw Wallace
and Mohan Meakins. However, a number of international brewers are starting to
become established. Joint ventures will continue to be more important as the
distribution network in India is complex. There are around 23,000 licensed liquor
outlets in India, with another 10,000 outlets such as bars and restaurants. States vary
as to their treatment of liquor and there are restrictions on the transfer of alcohol
between states.

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In Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh the distribution is controlled by the state
government, which enables changes in political parties to dramatically affect the
availability of alcohol. In Andhra Pradesh a change of government resulted in a ban on
the sale of alcohol in the state, while in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab, liquor
distribution licenses are auctioned to the highest bidder. Such a system encourages
market concentration by favouring existing suppliers. Only in states such as
Maharashtra, where distribution is relatively open, are new entrants able to compete
effectively. Draught beer is popular in Mumbai and Bangalore and in these cities a large
number of pubs and bars operate.

Whisky and Other Spirits

In India Country Liquor and IMFL (Indian-Made Foreign Liquor) cater to two quite
different sectors of the liquor market. Country liquor is consumed in rural areas and by
low-income groups in urban areas. IMFL is consumed by the middle and high income
groups, primarily in urban areas. As was found to be the case with beer; so it is with
whisky. Increasingly more and more of the major international liquor companies are
introducing new brands in India through local joint venture arrangements. These
include the following new whisky brands:

• Allied Domeq with Clan Morgan & Co to produce Teachers Brand Scotch Whiskies.

• IDV (Grand Met.) with Polychem Limited to produce Spey Royal Scotch Whiskey.

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• United distillers with U.B.Group to produce Black & White, Blend 69, Black Dog &
Vat 69.

• Seagram with Seagram India to produce Something Special, 100 Pipers Scotch
Whiskey.

• McDonald & Muir with Mohan Meakins to produce Highland Queen Scotch Whiskey.

• White spirits are considered by many observers to be the next major growth sector.

Wine

It is only very recently that wine has begun to be produced on a significant scale in
India. Its production takes place in both the organised and the household sectors.
Sparkling wine is also manufactured in India. However, this is intended for the export
market and the volumes involved are small. In growth terms an IWSR Report, 2006,
noted that the wine industry in India was growing at 25-30% annually as compared to
the 7-8% growth in China and 2-3% worldwide. Across India, out-of home consumption
is on the rise, which is important for the wine industry. Pubs, bars, restaurants and
five-star hotels are the primary wine selling outlets with 63% of sales volume coming
from these channels.

But compared to the rest of Asia, the percentage of wine consumption in India is still
low. IWSR 2006 reported that ‘India accounted for 0.8% of the total wine consumption
in Asia as compared to China, which accounts for more than 62.7% market share’.
More than 80% consumption remains confine to metros – Mumbai 39%, Delhi 23%,
Bangalore 9% and Goa 9%.

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Market Characteristics

• Preference for brown spirits (molasses flavour) in Indian market

• Liquor packed in 180, 375, 500, 750 and 1000 ML bottles - glass and plastic bottles.
180 ML and 750 ML are fast moving

• Guala caps on bottles to prevent bootlegging

• Brand building very important

• Yet avenues limited - advertising of liquor banned in most media

• Promotions,sponsorships,surrogate advertising (sometimes) done to build brands

State Specific Business

a) India is marked with state-specific business situation, which is most unlikely to

change rapidly, or in the medium-term, and possibly not at all, because:

b) Liquor is a vital element in each state’s revenue.

c) The states strongly resist Central Government dictated changes.

d) There is a strong philosophical and/or religious hostility to alcohol among many

states’ voters.

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e) In 1995, Andhra Pradesh voted in a government that promised and enforced

prohibition and very cheap rice. By end 1996, it was bankrupt and lifted prohibition
in mid 1997. Haryana also enforced prohibition from July 1996, but abandoned it in
April 1998. Criminality boomed in these periods.

f) Changing laws or reducing taxes on alcohol is never a vote winner; and is, therefore,
avoided.

g) Most states raised liquor taxes from 1994 onwards, with a pause in 1995, but 1997
saw more increases, particularly in the key Maharashtra market, where the state
claimed to have increased its revenue from alcohol in 1997. Since then Maharashtra
has taken a more moderate view in order to conserve revenue.

Government Policy & Regulations

The Indian potable alcohol market has high entry barriers, largely due to government
regulations. The policies and levies on alcohol vary from State to State. In most of the
States, the distribution of alcohol is regulated by the concerned State Government.
Being a state subject; within India itself, the policy on alcohol retail differs from state to
state. While some states such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu have a
liberal policy, other states such as Haryana and Andhra Pradesh have had very bitter
experiences in trying to make these states dry and have eventually had to withdraw the
policy. Each State levies taxation and duties on alcohol at its own decided rates. Each
State also levies excise duties and also regulates distribution channels of alcohol in its
own way.

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Liquor happens to be a major contributor to the state’s exchequer. Some states, have,
in the past, taken firm action in terms of banning the sale of alcohol within their state,
but their decision had its own political fallout, and the ban had to be withdrawn. The
state of Andhra Pradesh, in 1995, enforced prohibition and it had to lift prohibition in
mid 1997. Similarly, the state of Haryana also enforced prohibition in 1996, but had to
withdraw its decision in April 1998. As per AIDA 2004 Report, Whisky is the basic IMFL
spirit, and it continues to grow. Majority of the State Governments have realized, over a
period of time, the futility of enforcing prohibitions in their respective states. Prohibition
has bred crime and jeopardized the economies of various states.

The Indian alcohol industry comprises Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) like Whisky,
Rum, Brandy, Gin, Vodka, which together sell 100 million cases a year; Beer sells 90
million cases per year and Wine sells only around 5 lakh cases per year.India is
emerging as the largest global market for whisky, registering sales of more than 60
million cases per annum. Other spirits (Brown – Brandy/Rum; White – Gin, Vodka,
Rum) constitute the rest 40% of IMFL market. Of late, white spirits, although currently
placed at only 5% of the market are growing at a much faster pace of 40% p.a. as
against 10% p.a. growth of the overall IMFL market.

Raw Materials / Inputs:

India is the largest producer of sugarcane in the world and sugar industry is the second
largest agro-based industry of our country, textiles industry being the largest.
Production of molasses has increased from 0.4 million tonnes in 1950-51 to 8.29
million tonnes in 1995-96. The Government has already decontrolled the prices and
movement of molasses.

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Advertising

Advertising of alcohol and alcohol-related products is officially banned and considered

illegal. Major liquor manufacturers, however, spend heavily on surrogate brands under
the same brand names such as glasses, mineral water, music items, fashion articles
etc. Satellite and cable television however, being uplinked from outside India, have
allowed liquor advertising by Indian brands.

Distribution

As regards the distribution system, all outlets have to be licensed; Wholesalers,

Retailers, Bars and Restaurants, and Bonded Warehouse operators. The Distribution
system is still the same for Beer as for Spirits and Wine. They pay the, varying, States
licence fees. These can, at present, only sell Indian-made Liquor over most States. It
continues to be expected that Beer and Wine may shortly be permitted to sell in more
outlets. In some States, licenses for selling alcoholic beverages are allotted through
auction. At present, India has around 40,000 licensed retail alcoholic beverage outlets.

Market

The industry, over the years, has changed from a seller’s market to that of a buyer’s
market. With a variety of brands being available, major brand build-ups, media hype
and information flow have influenced the behavioural pattern of the consumers/buyers,
who are more discerning and see value for money. India, as a nation, has undergone a
sea change. At a time in the past when liquor was typically looked down upon, with
changing lifestyles and urbanization of our towns and cities, it is no more taboo to be
seen drinking. In fact, it has rightly or wrongly enhanced the status.

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Women and teenagers too have started indulging in social drinking. The consumer
today has a number of choices in terms of liquor and brands. The liquor industry itself
is highly segmented; depending on how much one can spend. There is a brand and
price catering to each class of society. The market is highly competitive with many local
and international players vying for a share in the market. There are primarily three
types of market in the liquor industry.

i. Government Market:

Here the state government is the wholesale distributor of liquor and they purchase
directly from the company.

ii. Auction Market:

In an auction market, the state is split into many smaller geographical segments. The
government auctions the right to distribute and retail liquor in those areas for a
specific period, to private entities.

This auction is based on the minimum guaranteed tariff payment to the government
over the specified period. Wholesale operations and retail outlets are owned/operated
only by those parties that win the auction for that particular area. The private
entities that win the auction for a specific area subsequently negotiate with liquor
manufacturers to acquire liquor at competitive prices. Typically, all auction winners
enter into inter-se arrangements to procure liquor at most competitive prices, and
retail the same at relatively higher prices to recover minimum guarantees committed
by them to the government during the auction process.

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iii. Open Market:

In an Open market, there is no government intervention in the pricing and

distribution of liquor. The manufacturers sell liquor to the wholesaler/distributor
who in turn sell it to the retail outlets. Market forces determine pricing. The
government issues wholesale/retail licenses for a fee.

INDIA - Market Commentary

General

In 2005, the widespread feeling of optimism grew, due to the economy’s strength, the
apparent commitment of the government to an open market economy, and the following
fall in interest rates from 12% to 7% in 2003.

• The main complication was the sudden surge in the price of molasses-based alcohol
in 2004: this drove some Low-Price, minimal margin, brands off the market. The
price came down in 2005, but is still higher than in the past.

• The Still Wine market continues its expansion +63.4% on 2004, but the real growth
is much smaller than much press coverage suggests. The real market for grape wines
(including airlines and Duty Free) is approximately 215,000 cases, of which 105,000
cases are Indian (not all from varietal grapes). The market has more than doubled
from 63,000 cases in 1995. Younger richer Indians as well as tourists, have become
consumers. There are persistent rumours of a reduction in taxes.

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• A further 375,000 cases of composite wines are sold (including communion wines
over the Christian parts of the South).

• A steadily rising 50,500 cases of Sparkling Wine were consumed in 2005, largely at
weddings (80% is produced in India). Champagne rose to around 7,500 cases. Most
of this is airline business, with some luxury hotel and Duty Free leaks.

• This major whisky market (the largest in the world) resumed growth (+5.5%) after it
had ceased to grow in 2004 due to rocketing prices of molasses used for the base
spirits. This killed off several major brands in the lower price category of Indian
whisky, which now takes only 27% of sales as some `Regular' brands cut prices to
boost sales. Scotch rose by 7.0%. Scotch brands Bottled-in-India rose by 5.1%, and
Bottled-in-Scotland imports rose +10.4%. There was more growth in smuggled 12-
Year Old and Malts than in Standard brands, as the economic and political outlook
improved markedly.

• Gin (99.5% Indian) rose by 5.0% due to the promotion of high strength flavoured
Gins which rose by 20.3%.

• The Vodka market rose strongly by +67% as leading Indian brands promoted
strongly and imports continued to rise. The category is now only slightly smaller than
Gin. Tequila is returning on a very small scale after having almost vanished from the
market in 2001 and 2002.

• Rum recovered and rose by 8% in 2005, as molasses prices moderated. It is now the
number 1 rum market in the world (if Cachaca is left out of the calculation).

• Brandy (non-grape) rose by 8.5% as molasses prices fell back. Both brandy and rum
benefited in the South from the ban on Country Liquor in Tamil Nadu and some
smaller states in 2001.

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• Flavoured spirits rose +6.6%, with a fall in imports, and growth in local Indian
specialities.

• RTD’s sales fell back (even though Bacardi Breezers sold into more states): Other
RTD's flopped due to high price and low `kick'.

• Beer rose strongly by 13% in 2005, as the shortage of returnable glass bottles
ceased. The future is seen as very bright, if the promised re-assessment of taxation
levels versus spirits takes place. Imports only take 0.05% of Beer sales. The Strong
Beer segment continued to rise, taking 65.0% of all beer sales in 2005.

The upwardly young population with prosperity to spend is guzzling booze like never
before. Consumption of beer has jumped 51% from 70 million cases in 2002 to 105
million cases in 2006 while consumption of Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL) grew 53%
to 115 million cases during the period. The country has one of the youngest
populations, with around 50% citizens below 25 years. A free media and increasing
exposure to western influences have lifted the stigma off liquor consumption, while
rising income is stocking the shift from country liquor to more refined varieties, said a
report by SSKI Research. Alcohol consumption tends to begin at age 16-18 in India and
peak at 30-35. India’s 18-35 year age group is currently 247 million strong and growing
at 3.4% per annum. With a net addition of another 40 million to this segment over the
next five years, alcohol demand will aggregate 40 million cases over FY05-10. Of this,
IMFL will account for about 45-50%, owing to the higher aspiration levels of the new
generation. In FY05 McDowell was the dominant player in the IMFL market with a
consolidated share of 55% followed by Radico Khaitan of 10%. In third and fourth
position were Mohan Meakin and Jagatjit Industries.Rising inflation will impact the
alcohol industry. India being a price sensitive market the alcohol industry also has to
face the consequences of this economic slowdown. Not only has the industry to contend
with weakening consumer sentiment but also a hike in raw material costs.

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A hike in the price of extra neutral alcohol (ENA), a key ingredient for IMFL has resulted
into a significant price rise of many IMFL brands. As per report, many brands will have
to hike their retail prices by at least Rs 10 a bottle.

Ethanol:

Ethanol (ethyl alcohol, grain alcohol, ETOH) is a clear, colourless liquid with a
characteristic, agreeable odour. Ethanol, CH3CH2OH, is an alcohol, a group of
chemical compounds whose molecules contain a hydroxyl group, -OH, bonded to a
carbon atom. The Government of India has amended the control order regulating the
supply and distribution of petrol to enable doping of 5 per cent ethanol in petrol. Five
per cent ethanol doped petrol has been made mandatory in nine sugarcane-producing
states and four Union Territories from January 1, 2003. The blended fuel called
‘Gasohol’ would be supplied through 11538 retailing outlets in 9 states and four union
territories. This has thrown up immense opportunities for industrial alcohol.

Ethanol as a Fuel

Ethanol is used as an automotive fuel by itself and can be mixed with gasoline to form
what has been called "gasohol" FUEL ETHANOL- the most common blends contain
10% ethanol and 85% ethanol mixed with gasoline. Over 1 billion gallons of ethanol are
blended with gasoline every year in the United States. Because the ethanol molecule
contains oxygen, it allows the engine to more completely combust the fuel, resulting in
fewer emissions.

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Since ethanol is produced from plants that harness the power of the sun, ethanol is
also considered a renewable fuel. Therefore, ethanol has many advantages as an
automotive fuel.A major contribution to the improving prospects for the Brazilian
alcohol industry has been made by flex fuel cars. These cars which are able to run on
any mixture of hydrous and anhydrous alcohol as well as gasoline have proved to be
enormously popular. Introduced in March, 2003, sales in the first 13 months
(March/March) have risen to almost 95,000 units, which compares with 37,000 units
for ethanol-only powered vehicles sold in the same period. Forecasts for the future
development of sales are similarly optimistic. The Association of Car Manufacturers in
Brazil – Anfavea – expects to see the market share of flex fuel vehicles rising to 23% by
2008.

Meanwhile, all the country’s major car manufacturers have flex fuel engines in their
ranges. As aresult, the Association of Sugar Cane Growers in the state of Sao Paulo –
Unica – anticipates total fuel alcohol consumption in Brazil rising to almost 17 billion
litres by 2010 from the current 11.5 billion litres.

Future Growth of the Industry

Demand drivers for alcohol industry:

1. Population growth
2. Rise in income levels leading to increased consumption.
3. Increase in purchasing power has led to more consumption of lifestyle products like
alcoholic beverages etc.
4. Growing consumer preferences for high quality of alcoholic beverages.

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5. Lowest per capita consumption.

6. Fuel ethanol requirement in India and abroad.
7. Demand for petrol expected to grow.
8. Net increase in population; besides this average age of initiation into drinking is
coming down.
9. Ethanol required at 5% blending with petrol would be required, which is likely to
scale up demand.

With rapid growth in the middle class segment, increasing consumerism, rising
disposable income levels, rising standards of living, increase in number of discerning
customers, and increase in the number of liquor brands and categories available to the
consumer, there will invariably be an increased growth of all segments of liquor
industry. The foreign players are likely to have market grip over the super premium and
premium segments and the Indian manufacturers would see a reduced market share.
The domestic majors will nevertheless upgrade the large Country Liquor market into
IMFL. Local players have all along dominated the Country Liquor segment wherein
there are no large players or multinationals coming in to this specific segment.
Even amongst the various IMFL segments, Vodka, White Rum, and Brandy are
expected to grow at above-industry growth rates albeit on a very low base.

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Industry Outlook:

The demand for Alcoholic Beverages has been growing at a steady pace of
approximately 10% p.a. and (this growth rate) is expected to continue to grow at this
rate in the future. Supply is expected to match the demand over the medium term. The
overall profitability of the industry would continue to be subject to the prices of
molasses and the extent of competition besides the duties levied by State Governments.
The outlook for the industry continues to be buoyant fuelled by the large and growing
number of youth coming into the legal drinking age category. While countries like the
USA and China are well past the 'demographic' window, India is comparatively a 'young'
country with over half the 1.2 billion population under 25 years of the age. This offers
considerable potential for the future. The progressive prohibition of country liquor will
only boost the growth in other sectors, notably IMFL.

Current trends

United Spirits has clocked sales volume of 100 million Cases

United Spirits has clocked sales volume of 100 million Cases to become the world's
2nd largest spirits company. The company said that this milestone has been achieved
despite the discontinued supply to Andhra Pradesh, the largest beer market in the
country during the three months in the peak season. United Breweries, a flagship
company of UB Group has informed that during the financial year ended March 31,
2010, the combined brewing entities of United Breweries have sold more than 7.8
million hectoliters of beer which is equivalent to over 100 million cases. This growth is
an increase of more than 20% over the previous financial year.

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Radico to reduce its stake in their joint venture

Radico Khaitan is in talks with UK-based Diageo Plc to reduce its stake in their joint
venture Diageo Radico Distilleries Pvt as per some media reports.The world's largest
alcoholic drinks maker and Radico have an equal JV to make and sell liquor products
in India. Late last year Diageo had received approval from India's Foreign Investment
Promotion Board to raise its stake in the joint venture to 100 percent.

Tilaknagar Industries has acquired six brands

Tilaknagar Industries has acquired six brands; namely White House, White House
Premium Whisky, Black Colt, Bachelor Fine Whisky, Negro He-Mans XXX Rum and
Golden Chariot from Alcobrew Distilleries India. These brands have a prominent
presence in CSD and civil markets.

Bacardi-Martini launches Eristoff vodka in India

Bacardi-Martini India launched its premium vodka brand Eristoff in the city and is set
for a pan-India roll out by this year with an aim to capture a sizeable market share in
the next two years. Eristoff is one of the largest selling premium vodka brands in
France, Austria, Belgium, Portugal and Chile. We see India as a potential market as a
huge demand is coming from youngsters and the emerging middle class. The global
liquor giant also sells brands like Bacardi rum, Bacardi Breezer, flavored rum and
Grey Goose vodka in the Indian market.

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 24th May, 2010

Profile of top four Indian Companies:

1. United spirits Ltd

• United Spirits (USL), is the largest spirits company in India and a

flagship entity of $2 billion UB group. It manufactures wide range of whisky,
vodka, rum and other spirits.

• United Spirits is among the top three spirits companies in the world. It has a
presence in over 59 countries.

• USL's technical centre is located in Bangalore, which develops new products,

conducts research and development, flavour testing and quality management. It
has 62 manufacturing units.

• The company has received recognition for its quality products from independent
jury such as International Wine & Spirits Competition (UK), International
Spirits Challenge (UK), World Beverage Competition (US), Monde Quality
Institute (Belgium) and Mundusvini (Germany).

• Its brands include Black Dog 12 YO Deluxe Scotch Whisky, Black Dog
Centenary Scotch Whisky, Antiquity Blue Whisky, Antiquity Rare Whisky,
Signature Whisky, Single Malt Whisky, DSP Black Whisky, Celebration Rum,
McDowell's No.1 Brandy, White Mischief Vodka, Premium Romanov and Blue
Riband Gin.

• United Spirits acquired leading distiller of Scotch whisky Whyte & Mackay and
Bouvet Ladubay, a wine subsidiary of French champagne company Taittinger.
Whyte & Mackay and Bouvet Ladubay are now 100% subsidiaries making
United Spirits a manufacturer of 17 millionaire brands.

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 24th May, 2010

• Besides Whyte & Mackay and Bouvet Ladubay being 100% subsidiaries of USL,
the company has 20 millionaire brands (selling more than a million cases a year)
in its portfolio and enjoys a strong 59% market share for its first line brands in
India.

• At the market price of Rs1192.00.the stock trades at P/E of 32.25 x and 28.00 x
for the earnings of FY11E and FY12E respectively.

• Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings of FY11E and FY12E is
seen at Rs.36.96 and Rs.42.51 respectively for equity share of Rs.10.00 each.

• We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.1400.00

for Medium to Long term investment.

Particulars FY10 FY11E % Chg.

YoY
Net Sales (Rs. Mn.) 49598.90 58030.70 17.00

Net Profit (Rs. Mn.) 4008.90 4642.46 15.80

EPS (Rs.) 34.66 36.96 6.64

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 24th May, 2010

2. Tilaknagar Industries Ltd

• Tilaknagar Industries (TI) is a leading player in the liquor industry and

manufactures Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL).The company remains
committed to expand profit margins, achieve robust growth going forward and
increase its footprints globally.

• Rapid induction of new consumers along with increasing urbanization will

accelerate the company’s future growth.

• The company is setting up a Rs 800 million grain-based distillery at Ahmednagar

in Maharashtra.

• The company has given a bonus issue of Equity Share in the ratio of two Equity
Shares of the Company of Rs 10/- each for every one Equity Share of the
Company.

• The IMFL segment is expected to grow at 9-10% p.a. (in volume terms) as against
6-7% p.a. growth in country liquor.

• Net sales and PAT of the Company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.25% &
2% over FY08 to FY11E.

• At the market price of Rs.144.00, the stock trades at P/E of 17.12x and 12.51xs
for the earnings of FY10E and FY11E respectively.

• Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings of FY10E and FY11E is
seen at Rs.8.41 and Rs.11.50 respectively for equity share of Rs.10.00 each.

• We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.175.00 for
Medium to Long term investment.

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 24th May, 2010

Particulars FY09 FY10E* % Chg.

YoY
Net Sales (Rs. Mn.) 2396.0 3227.24 34.69

Net Profit (Rs. Mn.) 212.49 254.84 19.93

EPS (Rs.) 37.11 8.41 -

Equity Capital(Rs) 57.25 302.85 429.00

*FY10 Results not updated in BSE

3. United Breweries Ltd

• United Breweries (UBL) is a flagship company of UB Group. The company is

engaged in manufacturing and marketing of beer.

• The company announced that during the financial year ended March 31, 2010,
the combined brewing entities of United Breweries Ltd. have sold more than 7.8
million hectoliters of beer which is equivalent to over 100 million cases.

• United Spirits (USL), the flagship company of United Breweries Groups' (UB)
has considerably reduced its total debt.

• United Breweries Holding (UBHL) and United Breweries (UBL) have entered into
a new shareholding agreement with Heineken N.V. in order to lead the Indian
beer market.

• The company’s net sales and net profit are expected to grow at a CAGR of 18%
and 24% over FY08 to FY11E.

• United Breweries now has greater than a 40% share of the Indian brewing
market with 79 distilleries and bottling units across the world.

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 24th May, 2010

• While Kingfisher Premium dominates the mild beer category, Kingfisher Strong
continues to be the fastest growing brand of beer in the country, recording a
growth of 23% over the previous year. Beer packaged in cans continues to grow
in popularity amongst consumers as the volumes grew by more than 30% over
the previous year.

• Kingfisher Strong beer continues to be the number one selling beer in India.
The Kingfisher brand is the most visible and the largest selling beer in India. It
is available in over 50 countries world over

• At the market price of Rs198.00. the stock trades at P/E of 40.00 x and 39.41 x
for the earnings of FY11E and FY12E respectively.

• Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings of FY11E and FY12E is
seen at Rs.4.95 and Rs.5.02 respectively for equity share of Rs.1.00 each.

• We recommend ‘HOLD’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.235.00

for Medium to Long term investment.

Particulars FY10 FY11E % Chg.

YoY

Net Sales (Rs. Mn.) 19972.30 21925.00 9.78

Net Profit (Rs. Mn.) 945.90 1187.50 25.54

EPS (Rs.) 3.58 4.95 38.27

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 24th May, 2010

4. Radico Khaitan Ltd

• Radico Khaitan (RKL) is one of India's oldest and largest liquor manufacturers.
Formerly known as Rampur Distillery which was established in 1943.

• The Company’s manufacturing plants are located at Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan,

Andhra Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Haryana.

• The company entered into 50:50 joint ventures with Diageo Radico Distilleries to
market Masterstroke Whisky.

• The company has more than 35,000 shareholders. It is the most profitable
company in the domestic liquor industry.

• The company has presence in 30 countries and offers a unique 5cl Sachet pack for
greater market penetration.

• The company owns largest distilleries in Asia and produces Extra Neutral Alcohol
from molasses and grains. It is the largest exporter of Extra Neutral Alcohol from
India.

• RKL has set up a second grain-based distillery in Aurangabad, Maharashtra with

an investment of Rs136 crore.

• The Company plans to capture significant volumes into the high liquor consuming
markets like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh and increase its market
share in other existing markets The Company aims to achieve sales volume of more
than 20 million cases per year in next 2 years.

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 24th May, 2010

• Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% and 18%
over 2008 to 2011E respectively.

• At the current market price of Rs.125.50, the stock is trading at 28.82 x FY10E and
23.66 x FY11E respectively.

• Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 4.85 x and 4.02 x respectively
for FY10E and FY11E.

• Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY10E and FY11E is
seen at Rs.4.35 and Rs.5.30 respectively.

• Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% and 18%
over 2008 to 2011E respectively.

• The company has more than 35,000 shareholders. It is the most profitable
company in the domestic liquor industry.

• The company has presence in 30 countries and offers a unique 5cl Sachet pack for
greater market penetration.

• RKL has set up a second grain-based distillery in Aurangabad, Maharashtra with

an investment of Rs136 crore.

• The Company plans to capture significant volumes into the high liquor consuming
markets like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh and increase its market
share in other existing markets The Company aims to achieve sales volume of more
than 20 million cases per year in next 2 years.

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 24th May, 2010

• On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 9.02 x for FY10E and 7.98 x for
FY11E.

• We expect that the company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also.
We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.145.00 for
Medium to Long term investment.

Particulars FY09 FY10E % Chg.

YoY
Net Sales (Rs. Mn.) 6960.29 8557.45 22.95

Net Profit (Rs. Mn.) 65.36 447.70 584.98

EPS (Rs.) 0.64 4.35 579.69

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

• Huge potential sector

• Liquor is a vital element in each state’s revenue.

• Effective advertising

• Effective Brands

• Strong distribution network

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 24th May, 2010

Weaknesses

• Low margins

Opportunities

• Favourable demographies, increasing prosperity and disposable income coupled with

attitudinal changes towards consumption indicate strong and sustained demand for
many years ahead.

• India is predominantly a spirits market and beer is a minority preference for those
who consume beverage alcohol. The low penetration in beer consumption in
comparison to international levels offers the expectation of substantial and
sustainable growth in demand for beer in years to come, particularly given the
youthful age of India's populace.

• Foreign brewers have been eyeing the Indian market for some years now as India is
widely acknowledged to be the last untapped big growth market.

• With the global markets experiencing low/ stagnating growth in recent years, and the
focus shifting to Asia - Pacific region, the industry is expected to witness a fast
growth.

• With growing demand, the domestic production of beer is on the rise. With further
investments, your company has been able to upgrade and expand its capacities and
also its brands. International brewers have established breweries across India in
order to extend their brand presence to more states.
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 24th May, 2010

Threats/ Challenges

• The Alcoholic Beverages industry is the favourite target of the Governments, both
Central & State, when they need to balance their budgets. As a result, the industry
suffers from the twin impact of over-regulation and excessive taxation.

• Raising raw material cost

• The spectre of a failing monsoon

• Other govt policies

Conclusion:

The demand for Alcoholic Beverages has been growing at a steady pace of
approximately 10% p.a. and (this growth rate) is expected to continue to grow at this
rate in the future. Supply is expected to match the demand over the medium term. The
overall profitability of the industry would continue to be subject to the prices of
molasses and the extent of competition besides the duties levied by State Governments.
With rapid growth in the middle class segment, increasing consumerism, rising
disposable income levels, rising standards of living, increase in number of discerning
customers, and increase in the number of liquor brands and categories available to the
consumer, there will invariably be an increased growth of all segments of liquor
industry.

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 24th May, 2010

The outlook for the industry continues to be buoyant fuelled by the large and growing
number of youth coming into the legal drinking age category. While countries like the
USA and China are well past the 'demographic' window, India is comparatively a
'young' country with over half the 1.2 billion population under 25 years of the age.
This offers considerable potential for the future. The progressive prohibition of country
liquor will only boost the growth in other sectors, notably IMFL.

_______________________________________________________
Disclaimer:
This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any
transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources
believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should
not be relied on as such .Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt.Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall
not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any
inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for
assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an
investment decision.

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 24th May, 2010

Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – [email protected]

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