ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

TOPIC: ANTI BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY

ANTI BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY

FOREWORD
President Barrack Obama had pledged to “set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and
pursue it.” But he also said that until that goal is reached, he will maintain a “safe, secure, and
effective arsenal to deter any adversary.” In recent years, the dangers associated with nuclear
weapons and the complexities of addressing these dangers have steadily grown. This paper
covers the one segment of arms control and disarmament i.e., Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, its
evolution, weapon systems, monitoring and verification, and current status.

EVOLUTION OF ABM TREATY

The United States was the first country in the world to develop nuclear weapons and use them.
(1) For the development of its nuclear arsenal the US has conducted over a thousand tests. The
US first began developing nuclear weapons under the order of President Franklin Roosevelt in
1939, motivated by a fear that they were engaged in a race with Nazi Germany to develop such a
weapon. This program was started under the Office of Scientific Research and Development.
The MAUD Committee was formed and its report on “use of uranium for a bomb” (2) had an
immediate impact on the thinking of both Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt in the fall of 1941.
This report concluded that a “uranium bomb” could be available in time to help the war effort:
On learning this dramatic conclusion on 9 Oct 1941, Roosevelt authorized the first atomic bomb
project.

In Dec 1941 Pearl Harbor was attacked. The Manhattan Project was created in August 1942
within the Army Corps of Engineers. Brigadier General Leslie Groves assumed leadership of the
project in September 1942. Groves and Oppenheimer formed partnership for this enormous
scientific effort. They moved Manhattan Project to Los Alamos, New Mexico. The most difficult
part in this process is producing the materials that can sustain chain reaction. Some firmly
believed that the material could not be made in time to affect the course of the war. The US did
not possess superior scientific expertise but it had enough industrial capability to make the right
materials. Almost all of the $2 billion spent on the Manhattan Project (about $23 billion in 2006
dollars) went toward building the vast industrial facilities needed to enrich uranium.(3)

The US bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War-II. It is strongly believed that the bombs
were used primarily for political rather than military reasons.(4) Because, in the summer of 1945
Japan was on the verge of surrender, and Truman and his senior advisors knew this but used the
atomic bomb to intimidate the Soviet Union and thus gain advantage in the postwar situation.
Many scholars support the conclusion that the bomb was seen by policy makers as a weapon
with diplomatic leverage.

CONCERNS FOR CONTROLING BOMB

Soon after using the bomb, President Harry Truman’s biggest challenge was how to control it.
By 1946, he had a detailed plan that included many of the nonproliferation proposals still
debated today, including a ban on the production of any new weapons or the fissile material for
weapons, international control of nuclear fuel, a strict inspection regime, and complete nuclear
disarmament. Step by step movement for arms control and disarmament can be stated as;

 Frank Warning
 Baruch Plan
 Arms race as a result of Berlin crisis
 Soviet testing of bomb
 Hydrogen bomb by US
 Atoms for Peace
 Open memberships for IAEA, 1956

ARMS RACE DURING COLD WAR

The nuclear arsenals kept growing rapidly, for example, the US nuclear arsenal increased from
just 400 weapons in 1950 to over 20,000 by 1960. The Soviet arsenal likewise jumped from 5
warheads in 1950 to roughly 1,600 in 1960. Interestingly, both sides knew very well that
numerical superiority will not bring security. Tensions were constantly rising and the
confrontations in Berlin (1961) and Cuba (1961 and 1962) put the world on the edge. In 1959
Russia launched the world’s first satellite named Sputnik; it demonstrated that atomic bombs
could now be carried by long-range missiles.(5)

NUCLEAR STRATEGIES DURING COLD WAR

During the 1950s and 1960s, the US sought to deter the Soviet aggression by the threat of
“massive retaliation” and “assured destruction”. These strategies envisioned large scale US
nuclear strikes against variety of targets in the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China,
in case the Soviet Union and its allies initiated a nuclear or large scale conventional war against
the US and its allies. The US by giving a threat of such an overwhelming response, the US
sought to convince the Soviet Union that if it initiates such a war against the US and its allies,
then as a result the Soviet Union would cease to exist as a functioning state. In the 1970s, the US
adopted the “strategy of flexible response” and subsequently a “countervailing strategy”.
These policies emphasized retaliatory strikes against Soviet military forces and war making
capabilities, as opposed to targeting civilian and industrial centers. These policies allowed
limited and focused attacks on small number of targets. These strategies sought to provide the
US President with more flexibilities with respect to timings, scale and the targets of the attack,
than he would have had earlier.

Moreover, to defend US allies in Europe and Asia, the US developed “extended deterrence”
(6)which sought to convince the Soviet Union that any level of aggression against the US allies
could escalate into a nuclear conflict that might invoke attacks on the Soviet Union. This posture
reflected the fact that the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact states maintained clear conventional
superiority, and without the possibility of resorting to nuclear weapons, the US and NATO might
face defeat. Consequently the US would not rule out the possible first use of nuclear weapons in
a conflict. However, in the late 1970s, the US issued “negative security assurance” in
conjunction with the Nuclear Non- proliferation Treaty; and stated that it would not attack with
nuclear weapons any NNWS that were parties to the NPT, unless these states were allied with a
nuclear nation in a conflict with the US. This exclusion meant that the statement did not alter US
nuclear planning for potential conflicts with the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.

The Clinton administration retained the US policy on “first use”, and although it reaffirmed the
US negative security assurance, the Clinton administration indicated that the US would reserve
the right to use nuclear weapons first “if a state is not in good standing under NPT or an
equivalent international Convention.(7) Moreover, Clinton administration officials stated that the
US would not rely solely on the ability to launch promptly; it could wait until detonations
occurred, then launch retaliatory strike.

NUCLEAR RESTRAINT REGIME

American leaders were thus faced with the crucial question of how to protect the US in the face
of such a severe threat. Build more weapons or try to climb down? John F Kennedy being
realistic said “the risks inherent in disarmament pale in comparison to the risks inherent in an
unlimited arms race.” He created the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency to pursue his
vision and to provide some balance in national policy discussions.(8) The Cuban missile crisis
was the most dangerous moment of the Cold War and it compelled both sides to exercise
restraint. Kennedy and the Joint Chiefs did not know then that the Soviet Union had already
placed over 100 nuclear warheads in Cuba and that the submarines escorting the cargo ships
toward the American blockade of Cuba were armed with nuclear-tipped torpedoes. Any attack on
either the ships or Cuba would have almost certainly unleashed an atomic reaction. Kennedy
renewed the negotiations for a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and began pursuit of a
global nonproliferation pact. He signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty with the Soviet Union in
1963, banning nuclear tests in the atmosphere, in space, and underwater. After Kennedy’s death,
Lyndon Johnson signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in July 1968.

ABM TREATY, 1972

In May 1972, Nixon negotiated the U.S-Soviet Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty limiting defensive
armaments.(9) In 1969, the United States and the Soviet Union initiated bilateral negotiations on
possible restrictions on their strategic nuclear arsenals. One agreement concluded in the first
phase of these Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I) was the US-Soviet Treaty on the
Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems, which came to be called the ABM Treaty.

WEAPON SYSTEM AS PER TREATY

As per the text of treaty, deployment of ABM systems for defense of an individual region is also
prohibited, except when expressly permitted by the Treaty.

ABM SYSTEM

Any system designed to counter strategic ballistic missiles or their elements in flight trajectory.
The components of such a system are listed as 'currently' consisting of ABM interceptor missiles,
ABM launchers and ABM radars.

The permitted deployments were originally limited to two sites in each country, one for the
protection of the national capital and the other for the protection of an intercontinental ballistic
missile (ICBM) complex, and the centers of these two ABM deployment areas for each party
were to be at least 1,300 kilometers apart. Not more than 100 ABM fixed launchers and 100
ABM single-warhead interceptor missiles may be deployed in an ABM deployment area.
ABM radars are not to exceed specified numbers and are subject to qualitative restrictions. The
Treaty permits early-warning radars but limits future deployments of such radars to locations
along the periphery of the national territory, where they must be oriented outward. The ABM
Treaty prohibits the development, testing or deployment of ABM systems or components which
are sea-based, air-based, and space-based or mobile land based. (10)

This ban is particularly important, because ABM systems based on mobile components would be
expandable beyond the permitted sites, creating a danger of sudden breakout towards the
prohibited nationwide defense. In addition, the Treaty prohibits the development, testing and
deployment of multiple-launch or rapidly reloadable ABM launchers. It also prohibits giving
non-ABM systems or their components the capabilities to counter strategic ballistic missiles or
their elements in flight trajectory as well as testing them in an ABM mode. The parties may not
transfer to other states, nor deploy outside their national territories, the ABM systems or
components thereof which are limited by the Treaty. An agreed statement by the parties extended
this no-transfer provision to include technical descriptions or blueprints specially worked out
for the construction of ABM systems and their components(11)

In 1974, in a protocol to the ABM Treaty, the United States and the Soviet Union introduced
further restrictions on ballistic missile defense. They agreed to limit themselves to a single area
for deployment of ABM systems instead of two areas as allowed by the Treaty. Each party may
dismantle or destroy its ABM system and the components thereof in the area where they were
deployed at the time of the signing of the protocol and deploy an ABM system or its components
in the alternative area permitted by the ABM Treaty, provided that proper advance notification is
given. ABM Treaty became the cornerstone of strategic arms control.

STRATEGIC DEFENCE INITIATIVE

On 23 March 1 983, US President Reagan launched an ABM program, called the Strategic
Offense Initiative (SOl), to provide a shield that could effectively protect the United States
against a massive Soviet missile attack and render nuclear weapons ' impotent and obsolete', it
aimed at creating space-based systems for directly attacking and destroying re-entry vehicles. It
was meant to entail abrogation of the ABM Treaty. In June 1 992, in a joint statement with US
President Bush, Russian President Yeltsin agreed that the concept of a global protection system
against ballistic missiles should be developed. A few months later, however, the Russian Foreign
Minister openly advocated the preservation of the ABM Treaty and the non-deployment in outer
space of any weapons. In May 1993, US Administration further downgraded the ballistic missile
defense program by restricting it to ground-based components.(12)

However, The ABM Treaty stipulates that non-ABM systems should not be given capabilities to
counter strategic ballistic missiles, but the 'demarcation line' between theatre missile defense and
strategic missile defense is not unambiguously clear.

In a joint statement issued on 21 March 1 997 by a summit meeting held at Helsinki, the United
States and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to the ABM Treaty. They also assured each other
that theatre missile defense systems, which may be deployed by each side, would not pose a
threat to the strategic nuclear force of the other side and would not be tested to give such systems
that capability. The two statements defining the demarcation line between the permitted theatre
missile defense and the strategic defense prohibited by the ABM Treaty. They also signed a
number of other agreements related to the implementation of the Treaty.

CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES

Confidence Building The United States, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine reached, also
on 26 September 1 997, the Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures related to Systems to
Counter Ballistic Missiles other than Strategic Ballistic Missiles. They agreed that the TMD
systems subject to the provisions of the Agreement were - for the United States - the THAAD
system and the Navy Theater-Wide TMD system, and - for Russia, Belarus and Ukraine - the S-
300V system, also known as the SA -12 system. The information was to be shared between
parties to the agreement within 90 days of coming into force.(13)

SUCCESSION

In 1991, Soviet Union was disintegrated and the question of succession of treaty came up.
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were thus recognized - for the purposes of the ABM
Treaty. Thus four successor states of Soviet became party to the agreement.

CURRENT STATUS:

On 13 December 200 I, President Bush announced that the United States was withdrawing from
the ABM Treaty.(14) Formal notification to this effect was given to the governments of Russia,
Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The reason for the withdrawal - as specified in the notification
- was that a number of states were developing ballistic missiles, including long-range ballistic
missiles, as a means of delivering weapons of mass destruction and that this was posing a threat
to the territory and security of the United States. The statement given by them was ' to protect
our people from future terrorist or rogue-state missile attacks'. President Putin qualified it as a
mistake but did not consider it a threat to the national security of Russia. in the Joint Declaration
of 24 May 2002 on their new strategic relationship, the United States and Russia agreed to study
possible areas for missile defense cooperation, including the expansion of joint exercises related
to missile defense and the exploration of potential program for the 'joint research and
development of missile defense technologies'.
The other country that has ever given notice of withdrawal from an arms control treaty is North
Korea, but its withdrawal (from the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty) was suspended before it
became effective if other states decide to follow the US example, this may have adverse effects
on the future of arms control agreements, both bilateral and multilateral, especially the Non-
Proliferation Treaty. On March 2018, Russian president Putin, in address to federal assembly,
announced development of series of technologically new missile systems, in response to US
withdrawal. Trump regarded them as boastful untruths but also confirmed that Russia has been
developing destabilizing weapons systems for over a decade, in direct violation of treaty
obligations. (15)

END NOTES

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+went+toward+building+the+vast+industrial+facilities+needed+to+enrich+uranium&sour
ce=bl&ots=EGOWIjTmee&sig=ACfU3U1SZCFhZ4QJ2pZYgLUYg5wPFm52pw&hl=en
&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiVnd6o4Z7qAhWNFxQKHeiXCcwQ6AEwAHoECAsQAQ#v=o
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