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    Day 5 PDF

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    Apoorva Rastogi
    The document discusses using probability trees and urn models to solve problems involving sequential probability, provides an example of calculating the probability of a rumor spreading through a dorm, and examines Polya's urn scheme where balls are added to an urn based on the color drawn with potential applications to modeling real-world sequential events.

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    Day 5 PDF

    Uploaded by

    Apoorva Rastogi
    54 views7 pages
    The document discusses using probability trees and urn models to solve problems involving sequential probability, provides an example of calculating the probability of a rumor spreading through a dorm, and examines Polya's urn scheme where balls are added to an urn based on the color drawn with potential applications to modeling real-world sequential events.

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    The document discusses using probability trees and urn models to solve problems involving sequential probability, provides an example of calculating the probability of a rumor spreading through a dorm, and examines Polya's urn scheme where balls are added to an urn based on the color drawn with potential applications to modeling real-world sequential events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    54 views7 pages

    Day 5 PDF

    Uploaded by

    Apoorva Rastogi
    The document discusses using probability trees and urn models to solve problems involving sequential probability, provides an example of calculating the probability of a rumor spreading through a dorm, and examines Polya's urn scheme where balls are added to an urn based on the color drawn with potential applications to modeling real-world sequential events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 7

    58

    Events in sequence
    • When events happen in sequence, it is often beneficial to
    attempt the problem using a probability tree.
    • Examples: Problems #23 and #24, problem set
    59

    Example: Review Problem #16, Pg. 76 of


    text
    • A dormitory has n students, all of whom like to gossip.
    One of the students hears a rumor, and tells it to one of
    the other n - 1 students picked at random.
    • Subsequently, each student who hears the rumor tells it to
    a student picked at random from the dormitory (excluding
    themselves, and the person from whom they heard the
    rumor).
    • Let pr be the probability that the rumor is told r times
    without coming back to a student who has already heard it
    from a dormitory-mate. So p1 = p2 = 1, and pn = 0.
    • Find a general formula for pr.
    • Read: Example 5, Pg. 62.
    60

    Urn Models for Sequential Events


    • Urn models are idealised setups, in which some objects
    of real interest (such as people, cars, shares, genes etc.)
    are represented as distinguishable coloured balls in
    an urn.
    • Often situations involving sequential calculations of
    probability are expressed in terms of urn models.
     One pretends to remove one or more balls from the urn,
    observe the colour of the balls removed and take certain
    actions based on that (or not).
    61

    Examples
    1. Sampling with replacement: pick one ball, observe the
    colour of the ball picked, and return it to the urn.

    2. Sampling without replacement: pick one ball, observe


    the colour of the ball picked, don’t return it to the urn.

    3. Polya’s scheme: pick one ball, observe the colour of the


    ball picked, return it with d additional balls of the same
    colour.
    62

    General Setup for Two Colours


    • An urn contains b black and w white balls.
    • A ball is drawn at random. It is replaced and, moreover,
    d balls of the color drawn and c balls of the opposite
    color are added. Note that c and d can be any integers,
    positive, negative, or zero.
    • A new random drawing is made from the urn (now
    containing w + b + c + d balls), and this procedure is
    repeated.
    63

    Examples
    a) If c = 0, the probability that the (unconditional) second
    ball is white is w/(w+b), regardless the value of d.
    b) If w = b, the (unconditional) probability that the second
    ball is white is ½, regardless the values of c or d.
    c) What is the general case?
    d) Prove that there is no other case when the
    unconditional probability of the second ball being white
    is the same as the probability of the first ball being
    white.
    64

    Polya’s Urn with Two Colours (More


    Discussions)
    Consider the case where c = 0.
    a) In N = m+n drawings from the urn, what is the
    probability of drawing m white balls first, followed by n
    black balls?
    b) Show that the probability remains the same regardless
    the sequence, as long as m white and n black balls are
    drawn.
    c) In N = m+n drawings from the urn, what is the
    probability of drawing m white balls, and n black balls?

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