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    Day 2 PDF

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    Apoorva Rastogi
    Here are the key steps to solve this problem: 1) The sample space is families with 2 children 2) P(at least 1 boy) = 1 - P(2 girls) = 1 - (1/2)×(1/2) = 3/4 3) Given that at least 1 child is a boy, the probability the other is a girl is 1/2 So the chance that the other child is a girl, given we know one child is a boy, is 1/2.

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    Day 2 PDF

    Uploaded by

    Apoorva Rastogi
    40 views10 pages
    Here are the key steps to solve this problem: 1) The sample space is families with 2 children 2) P(at least 1 boy) = 1 - P(2 girls) = 1 - (1/2)×(1/2) = 3/4 3) Given that at least 1 child is a boy, the probability the other is a girl is 1/2 So the chance that the other child is a girl, given we know one child is a boy, is 1/2.

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    Here are the key steps to solve this problem: 1) The sample space is families with 2 children 2) P(at least 1 boy) = 1 - P(2 girls) = 1 - (1/2)×(1/2) = 3/4 3) Given that at least 1 child is a boy, the probability the other is a girl is 1/2 So the chance that the other child is a girl, given we know one child is a boy, is 1/2.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    40 views10 pages

    Day 2 PDF

    Uploaded by

    Apoorva Rastogi
    Here are the key steps to solve this problem: 1) The sample space is families with 2 children 2) P(at least 1 boy) = 1 - P(2 girls) = 1 - (1/2)×(1/2) = 3/4 3) Given that at least 1 child is a boy, the probability the other is a girl is 1/2 So the chance that the other child is a girl, given we know one child is a boy, is 1/2.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 10

    27

    Example 1 (continued)
    Three distinguishable balls are randomly placed in three
    distinguishable cells.
     What is the sample space associated with the experiment?
     What if the balls were not distinguishable?

    S1: Cell 1 has exactly one ball


    S2: Cell 2 has exactly one ball

    What are the probabilities P(S1) and P(S2) in each case?


    What about P(S1S2)?
    28

    Example 2 (continued)
    •A readership survey conducted among the adult
    population showed that 35% read Times, 15% read
    Express and 25% read Herald; 10% read both Times and
    Express, 8% read both Express and Herald, 5% read both
    Times and Herald; 4% read all three publications.

    • Sample space =?
    • Probability of reading 0/1/2/3 newspaper(s) =?
    29

    A Gambling Problem
    (Chevalier de Méré’s Problem)
    30

    BACKGROUND
    • Gambler Antoine Gombaud (1607–1684), better known as
    the Chevalier de Méré, used to win consistently by betting
    even money that a six would come up at least once in four
    rolls with a single die.
    • However, although he thought the odds were favourable
    on betting that he could throw at least one sonnez (i.e.
    double–six) with twenty–four throws of a pair of dice, his
    experiences indicated otherwise.
    • This problem was solved by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de
    Fermat.
    • How?
    31

    Another Classical Gambling Problem


    • The Grand Duke of Tuscany asked Galileo Galilei (1564–
    1642) the following question:
    “Suppose three dice are thrown and the three numbers
    obtained added.
    “The total scores of nine, ten, eleven and twelve can all be
    obtained in six different combinations.
    “Why then is a total score of ten or eleven more likely than
    a total score of nine or twelve?”

    Reading+Exercise: Read Example 3, Pg. 24 from the text


    and solve Exercise 7 from Pg. 31.
    32

    CONDITIONAL
    PROBABILITY
    33

    Example 4
    Consider only families with 2 children. Assume boys and
    girls are equally likely.
    A family is randomly chosen.
    • Given that (at least) one child of the family is a boy, what
    is the chance that the other one is a girl?
    34

    Conditional Probability
    • Let A, B be two events such that P(A) > 0. Then

    P ( A  B)
    Q(B)= P( B | A) 
    P( A)
    is the conditional probability of B given A.
    • Conditional probability given an event A is computed by
    restricting the sample space to A.
    • Conditional probability is also a probability:
    I. 0 ≤ Q(B) ≤ 1
    II. Q(Φ) = 0, Q(A) = 1.
    III. The summation law holds as well.
    35

    Example 3, Pg. 34, text


    • A hat contains three two sided cards: b|b b|w w|w
    • One card is drawn randomly and placed on the table.
    • The visible side is black. What is the probability that the
    other side is white?
    36

    Example 4 (Continued)
    Consider only families with 2 children. Assume boys and
    girls are equally likely.
    A family is randomly chosen.
    • Given that (at least) one child of the family is a boy, what
    is the chance that the other one is a girl?
    • You meet one child of the family, who is a boy. What is
    the chance that the other one is a girl?

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