51

VIII. STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

A Statistical Experiment is a process that generates data and such a process can be repeated under similar
conditions. Examples are tossing a coin, tossing a die, drawing a ball from a box, determining whether a drug is effective
or not, measuring the effect of a substance on the growth of a particular plant, etc.

A Sample Space is a set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, which is denoted by S.

Example: Determine the sample space in each of the following experiment.

a. Tossing a coin once.
b. Tossing a coin twice.
c. Tossing a die once.
d. Tossing a die twice.
e. Giving a drug to 2 patients.

Solution: a. S = {H,T}.
b. S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
c. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
d. S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1), (3,2),
(3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4),
(5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
e. S = {ss, sf, fs, ff} where s stands for success and f stands for failure.

A Sample Point refers to each outcome in the sample space.

In the example above (a), the sample points are H and T.

An Event is a subset of the sample space, denoted by capital letters such as A, B, C,..., Z.

Example:
a. In tossing a coin twice, if A is the event of getting two heads, then A = {HH}.
b. In tossing a coin twice, if B is the event of getting at least one head, then B = {HT , TH , HH}.

A Null space or empty space is an event that contains no sample point, denoted by Ø or { }. A null space is also called an
impossible event.

Example: In tossing a die twice, if C is the event of getting a total of 13 dots in the two tosses, then C = { } or Ø.

A Disjoint or mutually exclusive events are events that do not have sample points in common.

Example: Consider the experiment tossing a die twice. Let A be the event of getting a total of 4 dots and B be the event of
getting a total of 3 dots. Then A = {(1,3) , (2,2) , (3,1)} and B = {(1,2) , (2,1)}. Events A and B are disjoint or
mutually exclusive events.

In the next discussion, we will study how to count the total number of sample points in the sample space without
actually listing all the possible outcomes. These techniques can aid in computing probabilities of some events.

Counting Principles:

A. Fundamental Principle of Counting (FPC)

If an operation can be performed in n1 ways and if for each of these a second operation can be done in n2 ways,
then the two operations can be done in n1  n2 ways.
Example: How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of dice is thrown once?

Solution: The first die can land in any of 6 ways. For each of these 6 ways the second die can also land in 6 ways.
Therefore, the pair of dice can land in (6)(6) = 36 ways.
Example: How many sample points are in the sample space when a coin is tossed three times?

Solution: (2) (2) (2) = 8 sample points

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B. Permutation – is an ordered arrangement of all or a part of n distinct objects.

Property 1: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all at a time is n!

Example: How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word “MAY”?

Solution: There are 3 letters that can be chosen for the first position, 2 letters that can be chosen for the second
position, 1 letter for the third position. Hence, there are n! = 3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 distinct permutations that
can be made from the letters of the word “MAY”. These permutations are MAY, MYA, AMY, AYM,
YMA, and YAM.

Example: In how many ways can An, Joe, Al, Fe, and Cale be seated in a row of five chairs?

Solution: n! = 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 ways.

Property 2: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

n!
Pr  .
n
n  r !
Example: If two prizes, the first and second prize, will be awarded among 4 students, how many ways can this be done
assuming that only one prize will be won by a winner?
4! 4! 4  3  2!
Solution: n = 4, r = 2 : 4 P2     12 possible permutations or arrangements.
4  2! 2! 2!

Example: How many three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1,2 3, and 4 if the digits can be used only once ?

4! 4!
Solution : n = 4, r = 3 : 4 P3    4  3  2 1  24 three-digit numbers.
4  3! 1!
Example: Find the number of ways in which 5 Statistics teachers can be assigned to 3 sections of Math 31 subject if no
teacher is assigned to more than one section.

Solution: The total number of ways is

5! 5! 120
5 P3     60 .
(5  3)! 2! 2

Property 3: The number of permutations of n distinct object arranged in a circle is  n  1 !

Example: In how many ways can 6 different varieties of orchids be planted in a circle?

Solution: There are n = 6 varieties of orchids. The number of permutations is (6-1)! = 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120.
That is, there are 120 ways of planting these orchids in a circle.

Property 4: The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind (or alike), n2 of a second
n!
kind, . . ., nk of the kth kind, is given by , where n  n1  n2  ...  nk .
n1!n2!...nk !

Example: How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2 green bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas lights
with 9 sockets?

9! 9  8  7  6  5  4!
Solution: The total number of distinct arrangements is   1,260
3!4!2! 3!4!2!

Example: In how ways can we arrange the letters of the word “statistics”?

Solution: There are 10 letters in all of which 3 are letter s, 3 are letter t, 2 are letter i, 1 letter c.
10!
Therefore, the answer is  50, 400 ways.
3!3!2!1!1!
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C. Combination – is the number of ways of selecting r objects without regard to order. This is a special case of partitioning
in which the elements are automatically divided into two groups, the selected (composed of r objects) and the non-
selected (composed of n - r objects).
n!
The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is n Cr  .
r ! n  r !

Example: From 4 mathematicians and 3 statisticians, find the number of committees of size 3 that can be formed
a.) without restriction;
b.) if it should have 2 mathematicians and 1 statistician

Solution:

7 7! 7!
a.)    7 C3    35
3 (7  3)!3! 4!3!

b.) The number n1 of ways of selecting two mathematicians from a group of four is
4! 4  3  2!
C2    6.
4
4  2!2! 2!2!
The number n2 of ways of selecting one statistician from a group of three statisticians is
3! 3  2!
C1   3.
3
3  1!1! 2!
Using the fundamental principle of counting, the number of committees of size three that can be formed with
two mathematicians and one statistician is n1  n2  6  3  18 committees.

Exercises:

1. If an experiment consists of throwing a die and then drawing a letter at random from the English alphabet, how
many points are there in the sample space?

2. An enrolling college student has the following subjects open to her: English 1 (section B or C), Math 31 (section F,
G or X), Filipino 1 (section T, U, Y), and Biology1 (section D, H, V or W). If she will enroll in all these subjects,
in how many ways can she arrange her schedule?

3. How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word “columns”? How many of there
permutations starts with letter “n”?

4. How many ways can 6 people be lined up in a bus?

5. How many ways can a caravan of 8 covered wagons be arranged in a circle?

6. From a group of four men and five women, how many committees of size three are possible

a) if there is no restriction?
b) if the committee must have one man and two women?
c) if the committee must have three men and no women?

7. Find the number of ways in which six teachers can be assigned to four sections of an introductory statistics course
if no teacher must be assigned to more than one section.

8. A bookshelf contains 4 English books, 5 Math books, and 3 History books. In how many ways may we arrange
them if
a) there are no restrictions to the grouping?
b) all Math books must be together?
c) no two History books are next to each other?
 54

IX. PROBABILITY

In the 17th century, two mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat carried on a correspondence discussing
mathematical problems dealing with games of chance. They were confronted with questions raised by gamblers: How can
the uncertainty of the outcomes of a game, such as coins, dice or deck of cards, be measured? What constitutes a fair bet?
Attempts to answer these questions led to the birth of probability theory.

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with calculating the occurrence of a given event.

Definition: The probability of an event A, denoted by P(A), is the sum of the probabilities of each sample point in A.
Hence, if A has sample points a1 , a2 , a3 , . . . , an , then
P(A) = P{ a1} + P{ a2} + P{ a3} + . . . + P{ an}

Properties of Probability

1. 0  P(A)  1. (This means that the probability of an event lies between 0 and 1.)
2. If A= Ø, then P(A) = 0. (This means that the probability that an impossible event will happen is 0.)
3. If A = S, then P(A) = P(S) = 1. This means that the probability of a sample space is equal to 1. Hence, the sample
space can also be thought of as a sure event.

Approaches in Measuring Probability

1. Subjective Approach
- the probability depends on one’s personal assessment of how likely an event will occur
- it uses personal beliefs, intuition and other indirect information in arriving probabilities

Example. A Lakers supporter might say, "I believe that the Lakers have a 0.9 probability of winning the NBA this
year since they have been playing very well."

2. Empirical or Relative Frequency Approach

- the probability of an event A is approximated by the proportion of times that an event A occurs when the
experiment is repeated a very large number of times.
- it is expressed in terms of relative frequencies.

Example.
1. Suppose that a coin is tossed 100 times under the same conditions. Suppose further that the coin fall heads 45
times out of 100. Based from the outcome of this experiment, what is the probability of getting a head when
a coin is tossed?
45 9
Solution: P(getting a head)   .
100 20

2. Consider the table below. Find the probability that the weight of a Math 31 student drawn at random is
Frequency Distribution Table of Weights of Math 31 Students
Weight in kg f
40 – 46 6
47 – 53 14
54 – 60 10
61 – 67 6
68 – 74 2
75 – 81 2

a.) between 54 kg and 60 kg;

b.) less than 61 kg
10 1
Solution: a.) P(54 kg and 60 kg;)  
40 4
30 3
b.) P(less than 61 kg)  
40 4

3. Classical or Theoretical Approach

- probability is computed based on theoretical assumptions about the possible outcomes.
 55

Suppose we can assume that all the possible outcomes of an experiment are equally likely, that is, each has the
same chance of occurring. Then probability of an event A is equal to the number of possible outcomes favorable to A,
denoted by n(A), divided by the total number of outcomes of the experiment, denoted by n(S). That is,
n( A)
P(A)  .
n( S )

Examples:
a) If a die is tossed, each of the 6 faces can be considered equally likely to come up. Thus, the probability that any
face, say the face with 4 dots, will come up is 1/6.

b) In drawing a letter from the English Alphabet, the probability of selecting a vowel is
P(vowel) = 5/26.

c) In tossing a coin twice, what is the probability of getting one head? Ans: 2/4 or ½

d) In tossing a die, what is the probability of getting an even number? Ans: 3/6 or ½

e) In tossing a die twice, what is the probability of getting a total of 5 dots? Ans: 4/36 or 1/9

f) In selecting a student from a class with 5 boys and 18 girls, what is the probability that a girl will be selected?
Ans: 18/23

Some Rules of Probability

Law 1. If A and B are any events, then P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) .

A B

In the Venn diagram above, P( A  B) is the sum of the probabilities of the sample points in A  B . Now, P(A)
+ P(B) is the sum of all probabilities of the points in A and the sum of all probabilities of the points in B. The points found
in A  B are counted twice, hence, it has to be deducted from P(A) + P(B). Thus, if A and B are any events, then
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) .

Events using or, either, more than, at least, etc. can be written mathematically as the union of events. On the other
hand, events using and, both, common, together, all, etc. means the intersection of events.

Example:
a) If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that it will either be a heart or a
king?

Solution: Let A be the event that a heart will be drawn and let B be the event that a king will be drawn. The
probability that it will either be a heart or a king is equal to P(A  B). Note that P(A) = 13/52 , P(B) =
4/52 and P(A  B) = 1/52. Hence,
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) = 13/52 + 4/52 – 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13.

b) In tossing a coin twice, what is the probability of getting at least one head?

Solution: P(one head) = 2/4 , P(two heads) = ¼ , and P(one head and two heads at the same time) = 0 since an
event with one head can never have two heads.
Hence, P(at least one head) = P(one head or two heads) = P(one head  two heads) = 2/4 + ¼ = ¾.

Law 2. If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B) .

A B

Mutually Exclusive Events – are events that do not have common sample points, that is,
A  B   . In other words the events cannot occur simultaneously.
 56

Examples:

a) In the experiment of tossing a die, let E be the event that an even number of dots come up and F be the event that
an odd number of dots will come up. Then
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E = {2, 4, 6}
F = {1, 3, 5}
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) = 3/6 + 3/6 = 1.

b) If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing cards, what is the probability that it will either be an ace or a
queen?
Solution: Let A be the event of drawing an ace and Q be the event of drawing a queen. Then
P(A) = 4/52 , P(Q) = 4/52 , P(A  Q) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13.

c) Find the probability of obtaining less than 5 dots when an ordinary die is tossed.

Solution: Let A be the event of obtaining less than 5 dots. Then A is the union of mutually exclusive events such as
getting 1 dot, getting 2 dots, getting 3 dots, and getting 4 dots. Then, P(A)= 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 4/6 or
2/3.

Law 3. If A is an event, then P(A’) = 1 – P(A).

The complement of an event A, denoted by A’, is the set of all points in the sample space S but not in A.

Events stated using “not”, outside, etc. can be written mathematically as complement of the event. Neither A nor B can
be written as (A  B)’. So P(A  B)’ = 1 – P(A  B).

Law 4. If A and B are events, then P(A  B ’) = P(A) – P(A  B).

Example:
a) When a pair of dice is tossed, what is the probability that the sum of points will not be 5?

Solution: P(not getting a sum of 5) = 1 – P(getting a sum of 5) = 1 – 4/36 = 32/ 36

b) If the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.7, what is the probability that it will not rain?
Ans.: 0.3

c) If the probability of passing an exam is 0.4, what is the probability of failing?

Ans.: 0.6

d) Referring to Example 9.4 (1), what is the probability that neither a heart nor a king will be drawn?
Ans.: P(A  B)’ = 1 – P(A  B) =1 – 4/13 = 9/13.

e.) Referring to Example 9.4 (1), what is the probability that a heart but not a king will be drawn?
Ans.: P(A  B’) = P(A) – P(A  B) = 13/52 – 1/52 = 12/52.

Exercise:

1. A study is designed to investigate weight and smoking habits of patients with hypertension. Here S represents all patients
with hypertension. Let A1 denote those patients who are overweight and A2 those that smoke. In a Venn diagram,
shade the region representing the following events:

a. patients who are overweight but who do not smoke;

b. patients who smoke but are not overweight;
c. patients who smoke and are overweight;
d. patients who neither smoke nor are overweight.

2. Suppose in #1 that 68% are overweight, 55% smoke, and 30% are overweight and who also smoke. Plot these
probabilities in your Venn Diagram. (Note that the total % of the Venn Diagram is 100% only, including the region outside
A1 or A2..) Then compute the percentage of patients describe in #1(a) up to (d).
 57

3. a. Suppose a coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of getting 2 heads?
b. Suppose the experiment is performed 100 times and the frequency for each outcome that turned up are as follows:

Outcome HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT

Frequency 11 5 13 9 17 15 18 12
What is the probability of getting 2 heads?

4. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, P(A) = 0.3, and P(B) = 0.5, find
a. P( A  B) b. P(A’) c. P( A ' B)

Hint: Construct a Venn diagram and fill in the probabilities associated with the regions.

5. A pair of dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting a total of 8 dots.

6. In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69 studied history and 35 studied both
mathematics and history. If one of these students is selected at random, find the probability that
a. the student takes mathematics or history;
b. the student does not take any of these subjects.
c. the student takes history but not math.

7. A survey of in a class of 35 students in a business school showed the following selection of majors:

Accounting 10
Finance 5
Info Tech 3
Management 7
Marketing 10

Suppose you select a student and observe his or her major, what is the probability that he or she is
a.) a management major?
b.) either a management or accounting major?
c.) Not a marketing major?

8. The distribution of blood types among the whites in the US is roughly as follows: type A – 40%, type B – 11%, type
AB – 4%, type O – 45%. A white man is brought into the emergency room after an automobile accident. He is to be
blood typed. What is the probability that he will be of type A, B, or AB?

9. Suppose the probability of “curing” childhood leukemia is 1/3. What is the probability that the disease will not be cured?

10. Trees on a certain mountainous area have been found to be affected by pollution. Suppose that 40% of the evergreens
show mild damage, 15% show moderate damage, 10% are severely damaged, 8% are dead, and the rest are unaffected.
If a tree is selected at random for study, what is the probability that it is
a. unaffected?
b. at most mildly damaged?
c. severely damaged or dead?
d. neither severely damaged nor dead?

11. Consider the table below on the lifespan of mosquitoes in days.

Lifespan in days No. of Mosquitoes

2-3 6
4-5 8
6-7 11
8-9 7
10-11 3
Find the probability that the lifespan of a mosquito is between
a.) 4 to 5 days b.) 4 to 7 days c. less than 7 days

12. Out of 250 times at bat, a baseball player gets 71 hits. What is the probability that the player will get a hit next time at
bat?

13. If the probabilities are respectively, 0.06, 0.13, and 0.31 that a person ordering a drink will choose the size small,
medium, and large, what is the probability that a buyer will order a drink that comes in one of those sizes?
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14. In order to test a new drug for adverse reactions, the drug was administered to 1,000 test subjects with the following
results: 60 subjects reported that their only adverse reaction was a loss of appetite, 90 subjects reported that their only
adverse reaction was a loss of sleep, and 80 subjects reported no adverse reactions at all. If this drug is released for
general use, what is the probability that a person using the drug will

a.) suffer a loss of appetite

b.) not suffer a loss of appetite
c.) suffer a loss of sleep
d.) not suffer a loss of sleep
e.) suffer either a loss of appetite or a loss of sleep
f.) suffer both a loss of appetite and a loss of sleep

15. From a survey, a random sample 1000 students at MSU-Marawi, a market research company found that 75% of the
students owned a cell phone, 45% owned digital cameras, and 30% owned cell phones and digital cameras. If a student
at MSU-Marawi is selected at random, what is the probability that the student
a.) owns a cell phone?
b.) does not own a cell phone?
c.) owns a digital camera?
d.) does not own a digital camera?
e.) owns either a cell phone or a digital camera?
f.) does not own a cell phone nor a digital camera?
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X. RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Definitions:
Variable of a study – a characteristic that we observe or measure in a research or survey

Random variable – a function or a rule whose value is a real number determined by each
element in the sample space
We use a capital letter to denote a random variable and its corresponding small letter
for a specific value of the random variable.

Example 10.1. In tossing a coin two times, let X represent the number of times a head appears. What are the possible
values of the random variable X?
Solution:
sample points X
HH 2
HT 1
TH 1
TT 0
Thus, the possible values of the random variable X are 0, 1, or 2.

Two Types of Random Variables:

1. Discrete Random Variable – can take on a finite or countable number of possible values.

Example 10.2.
a. X : number of heads in tossing a coin n times and its possible values are 0, 1, 2, …, n for some non-
negative integer n.
b. Y : gender of a respondent and its possible values are 0 for female and 1 for male. ( The choice of number
0 and 1 is just arbitrary. We can also assign other numbers.)

2. Continuous Random Variable – can take on any value in a given interval.

Example 10.3.
a. Z : height of an MSU-MarawiCollege student. It can take values anywhere from 3 ft. to 7ft. for example
b. W : weight of an MSU-MarawiCollege student. It can take values anywhere from 30 kg to 120 kg. for example

Probability Distribution – describes the probability of occurrence for the different possible values of a random variable.

Two Types of Probability Distributions:

1. Discrete Probability Distribution – a table or a formula listing all the possible values of a random variable and its
corresponding probability.

Example 10.4. Construct the probability distribution of X representing the number of heads in tossing a coin
twice.

Solution: The possible values of the random variable X: number of heads in tossing a coin twice are given in
example 10.1 above. In tabular form, the probability distribution of X is as follows:

X 0 1 2 Total
P(X = x) 1/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 = 1
The notation P(X = x) is read as “the probability that the random variable X takes the value x”. For example, P(X
= 2) is read as “the probability that the number of heads is equal to 2”. Thus, P(X = 2) is 1/4.

The probability distribution of a random variable can also be shown by means of a graph called
probability histogram. The graph below shows the probability histogram of the random variable X, representing the
number of heads in tossing a coin twice.
 60

0.5

prob0.25

0
0 1 2

number of heads

2. Continuous Probability Distribution

Unlike the discrete type, we cannot possibly identify every possible value that a continuous random variable can
take because it can take any number of decimal places. For example, the heights can be 5.1, 5.11, 5.111, 5.1111, ….

Also, the probability that a continuous random variable can take on a specific value x is too small that we can say
it has a probability of 0. For example, the probability that we can draw a student whose height is exactly 5 ft is almost
impossible because it will likely happen that the height will fall a little above or below 5 ft. No matter how little is the
excess or shortage, it is still not exactly 5 ft.

Hence,
i.) we only identify the probability of X for a range of values of X, i.e. P(a < X < b), P(X > a) or P(X < a).
ii.) P(a  X  b) = P(a < X < b) + P(X = a) + P(X = b) = P(a < X < b) since the last two probabilities are
equal to zero.

Example 10.5. The table below shows the empirical probability distribution on the weight of package of a mixture
of vegetables:

Weight (in kilos) Probability

of
occurrence
4.5-4.9 (underweight) 0.025
5.0-5.4 (satisfactory) 0.900
5.5-5.9 (overweight) 0.075
Total 1.000

Example 10.6. The table below shows the relative frequency (or empirical probability) distribution on the weights
of Math 31 students.

Weights (Kg) Rel freq or empirical prob.

40 – 46 0.15
47 – 53 0.025
54 – 60 0.25
61 – 67 0.15
68 – 74 0.05
75 – 81 0.05

These two examples show empirical probability distribution of continuous random variables. How do we get its
theoretical or classical probability distribution? Here are the steps to do:
1. Construct a frequency histogram of X. When the sample size is large, we can say that the empirical
probability distribution will estimate fairly the classical probability distribution.

2. Find a function that would approximately follow the shape of the probability histogram. This function is
called the probability density function if it further satisfies the conditions below. Then express the classical
probability distribution in terms of area under the probability density function.

Properties of a probability density function:

1. The function lies on or above the x-axis.
2. The total area under its curve and above the x-axis is equal to 1.
3. Area under the curve between x  a to x  b is equal to Pa  x  b  .
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Remarks. If the frequency histogram of the weights can be considered as symmetric and bell-shaped, then we can
consider its classical probability distribution to follow a normal probability distribution.

Exercise 10.7.
1. Classify the following random variables as discrete or continuous:
a. the number of automobile accidents each year in Marawi
b. the length of time to play 18 holes of golf
c. the amount of milk produced yearly by a particular cow
d. the number of eggs laid each month by 1 hen
2. A coin is flipped until 3 heads in succession occur. List only those elements of the sample space that require 6 or
less tosses. Is this a discrete sample space? Explain.
3. From a box containing 4 black balls and 2 green balls, 3 balls are drawn in succession, each ball being replaced in
the box before the next draw is made. Find the probability distribution for the number of green balls.
4. Consider the experiment of tossing a die twice. Let X represent the total number of dots that will appear. Find
the probability distribution of X.
5. Suppose we toss a coin 3 times and let X represent the number of heads that will appear. Find the probability
distribution of X.
6. The frequency distribution on the lifetime (in years) of a random sample of 40 car batteries are as follows:

Lifetime Frequency
(in years)
1.5  1.9 2
2.0  2.4 1
2.5  2.9 4
3.0  3.4 15
3.5  3.9 10
4.0  4.4 5
4.5  4.9 3

Find an empirical probability distribution on the car battery lives based from this result.

7. A continuous random variable X that can assume values between x=1 and x=4 has a density function given by
f(x) = 1/3.
a.) Show that the area under the curve is equal to 1.
b.) Find P(1.5 < X < 3).
c.) Find P(X ≥ 2.2).

SOME PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Below are some mathematical models on the probability distribution of some random variables. Understanding
these models will help in calculating probabilities of some events.

A. Binomial Distribution

Tossing a coin n times is a classical example of a binomial experiment. From this experiment we can see
the following characteristics of a binomial experiment:

a. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.

b. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success of failure.
c. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.
(The probability of a failure is denoted by q, q = 1 – p.)
d. The repeated trials are independent.

NOTE: A binomial random variable is defined as the number of success in n trials.

Example 11.1. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin three times. Let X represent the number of heads that will
appear. Note that

P(X=0) = P{TTT} = (1/2) (1/2) (1/2) = 1/8

3!
P(X=1) = P{HTT, THT, TTH} = (1/2) (1/2)2 = 3/8
1!2!
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3!
P(X=2) = P{HHT, HTH, THH} = (1/2)2 (1/2) = 3/8
2!1!

P(X=3) = P{HHH} = (1/2)3

In general, we can express the formula for the probability distribution of X by

 3
f ( x;3, 1 )   1 / 2 1 / 2
x 3 x
for x = 0, 1, 2, 3
2  x

Definition. (Binomial Distribution)

If a binomial trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 – p , then the
probability distribution of the binomial random variable X, the number of successes in n independent trials is
n 
b(x ; n , p) =   p x qn x , for x = 0 , 1 , 2 , . . . , n
 x

The mean and variance of the binomial distribution b(x ; n , p) are

  np and 2  npq

Exercise 11.1.
1. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 randomly chosen people are known to
have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
(a) exactly 8 survive?
(b) at most 2 survive?
(c) less than 2 survive?
(d) at least 13 survive?
(e) more than 13 survive?
(f) between 5 and 8, exclusive, survive?
(g) between 5 and 8, inclusive, survive?

2. From the problem in number 1, how many are expected to survive from the 15 patients?

3. A nuclear power plant is to be built and local public opinion is sought. It is thought that 65% of the residents in the area
and nearby places are in favor of the project.

a.) If this is true, how many would you expect to be in favor of the project if 20 residents randomly chosen will be
surveyed?
b.) In the 20 residents who were asked, what is the chance that less than 5 will be in favor of the project?

4. Albino rats that are used to study the hormonal regulation of a metabolic pathway are injected with a drug that inhibits
body synthesis of protein. From previous studies it has been found that usually 4 out of 20 rats die from the drug before the
experiment is finished. If 8 animals are injected with this drug, what is the probability that at least 6 will survive at the end
of the experiment?

B. Normal Probability Distribution

This is a theoretical probability distribution of a continuous random variable that follows a bell-shaped curve.

Properties of the normal curve:

1. It is bell-shaped and symmetric about the vertical line passing thru the mean.
2. It is asymptotic to the horizontal axis as it proceeds away from the mean.
3. The total area under the curve is equal to 1.

Note: The flatness of the curve is determined by the standard deviation of the distribution. Bigger standard deviation
means flatter curve.

The probability density function of a normally distributed random variable is given by

1
f ( x)  e1/ 2[( x   ) /  ]
2
where   x  
 2
 63

and σ is the standard deviation of the random variable, µ is its mean and e ≈ 2.7183.

Finding probabilities of events using the normal curve is equivalent to finding the area under the curve pertaining
to the given event. Areas under the curve may be found using the z-

table. Just convert first the random variable X to the standard normal random variable Z using the formula
x
Z

where μ = mean of the random variable X
σ = standard deviation of X

Example 11.2. Pheasant birds in a certain place were found to have an appreciable mercury contamination that was
thought to have been caused by their eating seed from plants grown from seed treated with methyl mercury. Mercury
level in a bird is measured in parts per million, and it is found to be normally distributed with a mean of 0.25 and a
standard deviation of 0.08. A pheasant is killed and the mercury level is determined. Find the probability
a.) that the mercury level is less than 0.3.
b.) that the mercury level is greater than 0.17.
c.) that the mercury level is between 0.2 to 0.4.

Solution:
a.) Let X be the amount of mercury level. Since X is normally distributed then we can use the normal curve to compute
its probability.
 0.3  0.25 
P(X < 0.3) = P  Z    P( Z  0.625)  P( Z  0.62)  0.7324
 0.08 

b.) Since areas under the normal curve in Table A.5 are areas to the left, then we use the property on the probability of
complementary events to solve for P(X > 0.17).

P(X > 0.17) = 1.0 – P(X < 0.17)

 0.17  .025 
 1.0  P  Z    1.0  P( Z  1.00)  1.0  .1587  0.8413
 12 

c.) Since we want to get the area between 0.2 to 0.4 only, then we subtract the area at the left of 0.2 from the area at the
left of 0.4.

 0.4  0.25   0.2  0.25 

P(0.2 ≤ X ≤ 0.4) = P(X ≤ 0.4) – P(X ≤ 0.2) = P  Z    P Z  
 .08   .08 

=P(Z ≤ 1.88) – P(Z ≤ -0.62) = 0.9699 – 0.2676 = 0.7023

Example 11.3. The IQs of 600 applicants to a certain college are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 115
and a standard deviation of 12. If a student will be selected at random, what is the probability that the student has an IQ
a. less than 110?
b. greater than 120?
c. between 110 to 120?
d. How many percent of the students has an IQ lower than 95?
e. How many of the students has an IQ higher than 100?

Solution:
 110  115 
a.) P(X < 110) = P  Z    P( Z  0.42)  0.3372
 12 

 120  115 
b.) P(X > 120) = P  Z    P( Z  0.42)  1.0  P( Z  0.42)  1.0  .6628  0.3372
 12 

In our computation above we use the property of complementary events.

Note that the answers in (a) and (b) are equal because 110 and 120 are equidistant from the mean and the areas
required from the normal curve are mirror images of each other due to the symmetric property of the normal curve.
 64

c.) P(110 < X < 120) = P(-0.42 < Z < 0.42) = 0.6628 – 0.3372 = 0.3256

 95  115 
d.) P(X < 95) = P  Z    P( Z  1.67)  0.0475
 12 

0.0475 x 100% = 4.75%. Therefore, 4.75% of the students have IQs lower than 95.

 100  115 
e.) P(X > 100) = PZ    P( Z  1.25)  1.0  P( Z  1.25)  1.0  .1056  0.8944
 12 

Since we are asked on the number of students then we multiply this by the total number of students, that is, 0.8944 x
600 = 536.64 or approximately 537 students have IQs greater than 100.

Exercise 11.2
1. Among diabetics, the fasting blood glucose level X may be assumed to be approximately normally distributed with a
mean of 106 mg/100 ml and a standard deviation of 8 mg/100 ml. Find the probability that for a randomly chosen
diabetic, his fasting blood glucose is
a. less than 120 mg/100 ml.
b. greater than 121 mg/100 ml.
c. between 90 and 120 mg/100 ml.
d. Find the point x0 that has the property that 25% of all diabetics have a fasting glucose level X lower than x0.

2. Among females in the US between 18 and 74 years of age, diastolic blood pressure is normally distributed with a mean
of 77 mmHg and a standard deviation of 11.6 mmHg. What is the probability that a randomly selected woman has a
diastolic blood pressure
a. less than 60 mmHg?
b. greater than 90 mmHg?
c. between 60 and 90 mmHg?
d. Find the point x0 that has the property that 30% of the females have a diastolic blood pressure lower than x0.
e. Find the point x0 that has the property that 30% of the females have a diastolic blood pressure greater than x 0.