Design Flood Estimation-HMA
Design Flood Estimation-HMA
Design Flood Estimation-HMA
By
N.N.Rai
Director, Hydrology (S)
Central Water Commission
1.0 Introduction
For any hydraulic structure the design flood of a selected return period, Standard
Project Flood or Probable maximum Flood depending upon the size of structure is
required to be estimated. The designer is mainly cocerened with the peak value of
the flood for many structures like bridges, barrage/weirs, cross drainage
structures and small storage structures. On the other hand the volume of flood as
well as the shape of the flood hydrograph are also needed while designing
major/intermediate storage structures. The following two approaches are very
commonly adopted for estimating design flood.
In both of the above approaches, adequate data inputs are required for processing
and obtaining the design flood outputs. The inputs are generally the long term and
short term rainfall and runoff records, annual flood peaks series, catchment or
physiographic characteristics etc. The detailed methodology to be adopted in a
particular case depends upon the data availability.
The inflow design flood for safety of the dam is selected on the basis of the
classification of the dam as follow:
(m)
The basic data required in storm studies are (i) daily rainfall records of all
raingauge stations in and around the region under study, (ii) rainfall data of self
recording raingauges (iii) data of storm dew point and maximum dew point
temperature. The IMD publications are important source of these data.
For all practical purposes the unit hydrograph base governs the duration of of the
storm depth. For unit hydrograph having a base of 24 hours or less, the design
storm of one day is considered appropriate and sufficient. In case the UG base is
more than 24 hours and less than 48 hours 2 day design storm should be
considered sufficient. For basins having UG base of more than 48 hours a design
storm of 3 days should be considered. Storms of periods exceeding 72 hours are
not generally required to be considered in the design flood estimation.
The most common method of estimating PMS for a project basin is the one
involving the transposition of selected major storms to the project basin and its
maximization there. The three main steps of the transposition and maximization
method are (i) selection and analysis of past major storms on record considered
transposable to the project basin, (ii) Adjustment of these transposed storms for
maximum moisture that could occur over the project basin, iii) envelopment of
the transposed adjusted storms
3.3.1 Storm Transposition
Storm transposition means application of a storm from one rea to another area
within the same meteorologically homogenous region. Further the orientation of
the storm should not be adjusted by more than 20 degree. The transposition
should not be attempted if it involves crossing a barrier or change in elevation of
800 m. No storm should be transposed in general beyond 2 degrees latitude or
longitude from place of its occurrence.
The last step in the estimation of the probable maximum storm for a basin is to
envelop the transposed adjusted storm depths. Assuming that the storm isohyetal
pattern will fit perfectly over the basin, the maximum average depths of rainfall
for various durations are first read of the DAD curves, of each of the transposable
storms for an area equal to the drainage area of the project. These values in
respect of each storm are then adjusted for maximum moisture by multiplying
them with respective MAF. The adjusted data are plotted on a graph and smooth
envelope curve drawn through the highest values. This envelop curve furnishes
the probable maximum rainfall depths for the basin.
The catchment response function used can be either a lumped system model or a
distributed lumped system model. In the former, a unit hydrograph is assumed to
represent the entire catchment area. In the distributed model, the catchment is
divided into smaller sub-regions, and the unit hydrographs of each sub-regions
applied with channel and/or reservoir routing will define the catchment response.
Hydro-meteorological Approach
A Unit Hydrograph is the runoff hydrograph that results from one cm of excess
precipitation distributed uniformly over the watershed at a uniform rate during
the specific period/ unit period /unit duration.A unit hydrograph, thus, has a
duration and that duration represents the duration of the excess precipitation that
generates the unit graph. For example, when one speaks of a one-hour unit
hydrograph, they are talking about the runoff resulting from a one-hour storm that
produces one cm of excess precipitation. The duration, being a very important
characteristic, is used as a prefix to a specific unit hydrograph. The duration of
unit hydrograph may be 1 hr, 2 hr or 3 hr or so depending upon the size of
catchment and storm characteristics. However, the unit duration should be
preferably equal or less than 1/3rd of the time of concentration/basin lag /the
period of rise.
The unit hydrograph is best derived from the observed hydrograph resulting from
a storm which fulfills the two basic conditions i.e. the rainfall is more or less
uniformly distributed over the basin and has a reasonably uniform intensity. Such
a hydrograph will generally form a singly and sharp peak. In case, such a
hydrograph is not available then the unit hydrograph has to be derived from the
analysis of an observed complex event. When observed discharge and rainfall data
at short interval are not available, then synthetic unit hydrographs are derived
with the help of basin characteristics.
Synthetic unit hydrographs are often required at the locations where hydrologic
records are not available and also as a means of correlating and supplementing
observed data. SUG are derived based on relationships found between various
characteristics of a standard unit hydrograph and descriptors of basin
morphology. These relations are applicable only to the specific regions in which
they are developed.
Where adequate rainfall-runoff data are lacking, a synthetic unit hydrograph may
be developed based on known physical characteristics of the basin. Some of the
methods for derivation of synthetic unit hydrograph for a basin are:
a. Snyder’s method
b. Transposition of unit hydrograph
c. Formulae developed by CWC as adopted in the Flood Estimation
Reports of various sub-zones of India
Snyder’s method
tp = Ct(LLc)0.3
tr = tp/5.5
qp = Cp/tp
T = 3(1+tp/24)
where, tp = lag time from mid-point of effective rainfall duration to peak of a unit
hydrograph,in hours;
2
LL
t p Ct c
S
If unit hydrograph is available for several areas adjacent to a basin for which a unit
hydrograph is required but for which necessary data are lacking, then
transposition of available unit hydrograph will ordinarily give better results than
resorting to a wholly synthetic procedure. One of the commonly used procedures
is to derive a dimensionless unit hydrograph and then use the same for deriving
unit hydrograph for the ungauged basin
For this purpose of publication of these reports, the country has been divided into
26 hydro-meteorologically homogenous sub-zones. Theoretically the sub zones are
considered to be hydro meteorologically homogeneous but some of the parameters
such as the slope of the river, land use etc vary with in these sub zones. In each of
the sub-zones, data at sufficient number of sites is available. The data at these
stations are helpful in studying the variability of hydrologic and physiographic
properties with in the catchment.
The various steps involved in derivation of unit hydrograph from the analysis of
the flood hydrograph with a single and sharp peak are as follows.
The unit duration of the unit hydrograph will be the duration of the effective
rainfall as worked out at step (e). It is desirable that the amount of direct runoff
(or the effective rainfall) is more than 10mm.
Unit Hydrograph from Complex Flood Hydrograph
Very few flood hydrographs with single and sharp peak resulting from an intense
& uniform rainfall in relatively very short interval of time are available. In most of
the cases the effective rainfall duration is relatively large with varying intensity of
rainfall with time resulting in complex event. Nash model and Clark Model base
on Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) are commonly used one to derive the
UH from complex flood hydrograph.
Nash model
Nash proposed a conceptual model for deriving IUH by routing unit impulse
input through a number of “n” identical linear reservoirs in series of equal storage
coefficient; K. Nash gave method of moment to derive the parameter nand K from
the historical rainfall-runoff of flood events. The shape of IUH was derived to be
two parameter Gamma function. The ordinate of the IUH at time t is given by,
n 1
1 t -t
U(t) e K
K n - 1! K
Where, n = no. of reservoirs; and
The values of ‘K’ and ‘n’ in Nash model can be evaluated by the method of
moments using the following relations:
MDRH1-MERH1 = nK
where,
The unit of the ordinate of IUH is per sec. (sec -1). When the ordinates are
multiplied by the total volume of runoff (in cubic meters) resulting from 1 mm of
rainfall over the catchment area, the unit will be cumec.
Clark model
Clark method assumes that the rainfall first undergoes pure translation and then
attenuation. The translation is achieved by a travel time-area histogram and
attenuation by routing results of above through a linear reservoir at the catchment
outlet. Clark suggested that IUH could be derived by routing time area
concentration curve trough a single linear reservoir.
The Clark model uses two parameters, time of concentration and storage constant.
The first parameter, time of concentration is the time taken by a water particle
from hydraulically most distant point to the basin outlet. The estimate of this lag
time is time from the end of effective rainfall over the basin to point of inflection
on the recession limb of the direct surface runoff hydrograph. The second
parameter storage constant, K, which has dimension of time, represents the rate of
withdrawal of water from storage in the channel system. This parameter can be
estimated by dividing the flow at point of inflection of the surface runoff
hydrograph by rate of change of discharge at the same time. The other necessary
item to compute IUH is the time area relation. For this purpose, the catchment area
is divided to sub areas by various isochrones
The Clark method translates incremental runoff from sub areas with in the
catchment to the outfall point according to the travel times and then routes this
runoff through linear reservoir in order to account for the storage effects of the
basin and channels.
Time of concentration (tc) is defined as the travel time of water particles from the
most upstream point (timewise) in the basin to the outflow location. This lay may
be estimated by measuring the time between the end of effective rainfall over the
catchment and the inflection point on the recessions limb of the surface runoff
hydrograph when the time of concentration has been determined, the basin is
divided into incremental runoff producing areas that have equal travel time in the
outflow location. The distance from the most upstream point in the basin is
measured along the main watercourse to the outflow location. Dividing this
distance by tc gives the rate of travel or distance traveled in unit time.
L3
t c (0.87 )
H
and in FPS units the formula is
L3
t c (11.9 )
H
Where
Isochrones representing equal travel time to the outflow location are laid out
using the distance traveled per unit to establish the location of lines. The
increment of time used to subdivide the catchment need only be small enough to
adequately define the areal distribution of runoff. The area between the
isochrones are measured and tabulated with the corresponding travel time (o to tc)
for each incremental area. The time period selected as the computation in travel
should be approximately equal to unit duration of excess.
The runoff from the contributing areas (between isochrones) which has been
translated to the outflow location is in units of volume and these must be
converted to proper units of discharge. This conversion is as shown below:
0.278ai
Ii ---------------- (1)
t
Where,
Ii = ordinate in proper unit of discharge (m3/s) of the time area runoff volume
at the end of period i.
The routing of the translated runoff through storage at the outflow location is
accomplished as follows
Oi CI i (1 C )Oi 1 -------------------(2)
Where
2 t
C --------------------(3)
2 K t
Where
Q
K -------------------(4)
dQ / dt
The magnitude of ‘K’ can be approximately evaluated at the point of inflection of
the recession limit of the observed surface runoff hydrograph. This ratio decreases
to a minimum at the point of inflection by the rate of change of discharge (slope) at
the same point. Another technique is to compute the volume of runoff remaining
under the recession limits of the surface runoff hydrograph following the point of
inflection and divide by the discharge at the same point. The hydrographs that
results from routing these flows from incremental areas is the instantaneous unit
hydrograph, which can be corrected to a unit hydrograph of a unit duration t.
To get a t-hour unit hydrograph from IUH, the ordinates of IUH are lagged by t
hours, then the sum of IUH ordinate and t-hour lagged IUH ordinates are divided
by 2 to get the UH ordinates of t-hour duration.
For estimation of design flood hydrograph, the effective rainfall increments of each
bell are rearranged with respect to ordinates of UH, such that the maximum
rainfall is placed against the maximum UG ordinate, next lower value of effective
rainfall against next lower value of SUG ordinate and so on. The effective rainfall
arrangement obtained are then reversed to obtain critical sequence. The sum of the
product of UG ordinates and critically sequenced effective hourly rainfall gives
total surface runoff to which base flow is added to get the ordinates of the design
flood hydrograph.
3.7 Case study-Design flood computation Gopi Krishna Sagar Project (M.P.)
by hydro-meteorological approach
Estimation of design flood for the design of different type of hydraulic structures
is a very significant component of hydrological studies. While a higher value
results in increase in the cost of structure, an underestimated value is likely to
place the structure and the population involved at risk. Hence proper selection of
design flood values is of great importance. Consequently the efforts should be
made to collect the adequate hydro-meteorological data to arrive at a reasonable
estimate of design flood for any hydraulic structure.
Annexure-I
1.0 Introduction
The Gopi Krishna Sagar project is located on Chopan river in Guna district of Madhya
Pradesh. The catchment area of the project upto the dam site is 294 sq. km. The latitude
and longitude of the project site are 24032’55” N and 77014’03” E respectively. The gross
storage capacity of the reservoir is about 85.01 MCM and the height of the dam, an
earthen dam, is 30.8 m. The project completed in year 1985, was originally designed for
design flood of 3605 cumec. As per BIS criteria, the dam is classified as large dam and
therefore, qualifies for PMF as design flood. The design flood studies for the project has
been reviewed in year 2010 using hydro-meteorological approach.
The dam was originally designed for 3605 cumec design discharge. The present design
flood studies have been carried out using hydro-meteorological approach. All the
physiographic parameters of the project catchment required for deriving the unit
hydrograph have been estimated by GIS processing of SRTM_52_08 Digital Elevation
Model. The same are given in Plate-1. The Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) has
been taken from the relevant PMP atlas. From the PMP atlas of Chambal, Betwa, Sone and
Mahui rivers, the 1-day areal PMP for 1000 km2 is 500 mm (Table : 14-XI of PMP atlas).
The corresponding 1-day point PMP has been calculated as 609.76 mm. The 24 hr areal
PMP corresponding to catchment area of the project has been used for the convolution
with UH taking two bells of 12 hour each. The UH parameter (Please see relevant
equations as given in Table-A) have been calculated as per FER subzone-1(b). The
notations of UH parameters are given in Plate-A. The loss rate has been adopted as 1 mm
per hour as given in sub zone 1(b) FER, considering the small catchment area as well as
PMF condition for the project. The computation in brief and the resulting design flood
hydrograph are given on subsequent pages. The PMF has been worked out as 4209 cumec.
Plate-A: Notations of UH Parameters
WR75=0.502/( qp)1.065
Plate-1
Design Flood Computations
Name of the project/ site: Gopi Krishna Sagar (MP)
Physiographic parameters
Time Discharge
(hr) (m3/sec)
0 0
1 30
2 64
3 120
4 165
5 136
6 98
7 64
8 46
9 34
10 24
11 16
12 11
13 6
14 3
15 0
Table-4: Rainfall Depth
1 day areal PMP for 1000 sq.km. from PMP altas of Chambal basin (Table-14 XI of atlas) = 500 mm
1 day point PMP = 500/0.82 = 609.75 mm
1 day areal PMP for 294 sq.km CA of project = 0.89x609.75 =542.68 mm
(Note: 0.89 is areal reduction factor as per FER-1(b) used for converting the point rainfall into areal rainfall)
24 hr areal PMP = 542.68 + 50 = 592.68, where 50 mm is the clock hour correction
Areal PMP depth for 1st 12 hr bell = 0.79x592.68 = 468.22 mm
(Note: for 1st 12 hour the rainfall depth is 79% of the 24 hour rainfall depth as per FER-1(b) Rainfall
Distribution Table)
Areal PMP depth for 2nd 12 hr bell = 0.21x592.68 = 124.46 mm
Time in Normalised Cumulative Rainfall Incremental Rainfall Loss Rate Effective Rainfall
hours distribution depth (cm) depth (cm) (cm/hr) (cm)
coefficient Ist bell IInd bell Ist bell IInd bell cm/hr Ist bell IInd bell
From
FER-1(b)
1 0.16 7.49 1.99 7.49 1.99 0.1 7.39 1.89
2 0.30 14.05 3.73 6.56 1.74 0.1 6.46 1.64
3 0.46 21.54 5.73 7.49 1.99 0.1 7.39 1.89
4 0.54 25.28 6.72 3.75 1.00 0.1 3.65 0.90
5 0.63 29.50 7.84 4.21 1.12 0.1 4.11 1.02
6 0.71 33.24 8.84 3.75 1.00 0.1 3.65 0.90
7 0.76 35.58 9.46 2.34 0.62 0.1 2.24 0.52
8 0.81 37.93 10.08 2.34 0.62 0.1 2.24 0.52
9 0.86 40.27 10.70 2.34 0.62 0.1 2.24 0.52
10 0.92 43.08 11.45 2.81 0.75 0.1 2.71 0.65
11 0.96 44.95 11.95 1.87 0.50 0.1 1.77 0.40
12 1.00 46.82 12.45 1.87 0.50 0.1 1.77 0.40
Time Discharge
(hr) (m3/sec)
0 12
1 65
2 178
3 405
4 728
5 1039
6 1348
7 1655
8 2101
9 2675 Fig.2: Design Flood Hydrograph for Gopi Krishna Sagar
10 3355 Project
11 3981 4500
12 4251
13 4042 4000
14 3450 3500
15 2726
Discharge (cumec)
3000
16 2048
17 1555 2500
18 1223 2000
19 1016
20 919 1500
21 914 1000
22 980
500
23 1074
24 1104 0
25 1029 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
26 863
Time (hour)
27 665
28 478
29 337
30 236
31 166
32 113
33 74
34 45
35 28
36 18
37 13
38 12