Limitations  of  biotechnology  

Over  the  intervening  centuries,  technological  
advances  in  agriculture  such  as  the  development  
of  genetically  modified  (GM)  seeds  have  been  
praised  as  the  solutions  to  eradicating  poverty  
and  incidences  of  famine  as  they  would  increase  
food  production  levels  and  reduce  herbicide  and  
pesticide  use.  However,  a  report  supported  by  
Friends  of  the  Earth  International,  the  Center  for  
Food  Safety  (US),  Confédération  Paysanne  and  the  
Gaia  foundation  (2011)  suggests  that  GM  crops  
have  failed  to  improve  quality  of  life,  especially  in  
developing  countries:  yields  don’t  pay  back  the  
investment  in  GM  seeds,  pushing  poor  farmers  
even  more  into  debt  and  forcing  some  of  them  to  
renounce  on  GM  crops  completely.  The  
emergence  of  superweeds  and  superbugs  has  also  
made  it  more  difficult  and  more  expensive  to  
combat  elements  which  can  cause  significant  crop  

Why  Malthus  is  still   damage  and,  subsequently,  food  insecurity.  The  
benefits  promised  by  the  biotech  companies  were  

relevant  today     also  reported  by  the  International  Journal  of  

Biotechnology  (2008)  as  having  completely  
disappeared  in  China.2  Additionally,  the  speed  of  
Malthus’s  An  Essay  on  the  Principle  of  Population  
crop  yield  growth  is  slowing,  especially  for  wheat.  
(1798)  claimed  that  population  growth  would  
This  is  critical  in  the  face  of  an  expanding  
eventually  reduce  the  world’s  ability  to  feed  
population  because  scientists  are  starting  to  cast  
itself.  He  based  his  conclusion  on  the  theory  that  
doubt  on  the  ability  of  food  production  to  
populations  tend  to  increase  more  quickly  than  
indefinitely  keep  up  with  demand.3    
can  food  production.1  His  predictions  did  not  
come  to  pass  because  he  failed  to  predict  the  
agricultural  and  industrial  revolutions  that  would  
substantially  increase  yields  and  enable  larger  
amounts  of  people  to  be  fed.  However,  today,  
issues  such  as  continuing  population  growth,  
rising  per  capita  consumption,  depletion  of  
natural  resources  and  climate  change  suggest  
that  Malthus  might  have  been  on  the  right  track  
after  all.  

   
  Why  Malthus  is  still  relevant  today          |        1  
 
  

 
 

Environment  &  climate  change   expected  to  interact  with  weeds,  fertilizers,  
insects,  plant  pathogens,  atmospheric  gases  and  
the  organic  matter  of  soil  to  produce  
unanticipated  responses.  For  instance,  if  the  
temperature  increases  beyond  a  certain  
threshold,  a  crop’s  productive  summer  growing  
season  could  reduce,  causing  a  decrease  in  yields.6  

The  European  Commission  has  stated  that  climatic  

changes  in  the  E.U  (changes  in  rainfall  patterns,  
heatwaves,  droughts,  storms,  floods,  etc.)  will  
Intensive  agricultural  methods  are  also  harmful  to   mostly  have  a  negative  effect  on  agriculture,  
the  environment.  Agriculture  is  said  to  be   especially  in  the  southern  and  south-­‐eastern  
responsible  for  about  one  third  of  climate  change,   regions.7  Reductions  in  water  availability  and  
with  a  quarter  of  carbon  dioxide  emissions  being   precipitation,  as  well  as  extreme  heat  events  in  
produced  by  the  use  of  fossil  fuel-­‐based  fertilizers,   these  regions,  are  expected  to  hamper  crop  
the  burning  of  biomass  and  deforestation.  Climate   productivity.  Variations  in  yearly  crop  yields  are  
change  will  have  devastating   also  expected  because  of  pests,  diseases  and  
consequences  on  agricultural  
conditions,  food  security  and  
even  food  supply.4  Agriculture’s  
contribution  to  climate  change  is  
important  because,  while  food  is  
being  produced,  changes  in  
climatic  conditions  as  a  result  of  
greenhouse  gas  emissions  are  
threatening  agriculture’s  ability  
to  cater  to  the  needs  of  an  ever-­‐
growing  global  population.  
Climate  change  increases  the  
intensity  and  frequency  of  
multiple  disasters  such  as  
droughts,  floods  and  storms,  
which  can  cause  crop  failure,  the  
destruction  of  critical  
infrastructure  and  key  
community  assets5  and  a  
reduction  in  the  amount  of  
available  land  for  agriculture.  In  
addition,  climate  change-­‐
induced  variations  in  
temperature  and  rainfall  are  

   
  Why  Malthus  is  still  relevant  today          |        2  
 
  

 
 
extreme  weather  events.  For  instance,  it  is   be  living  in  areas  of  high  water  stress  by  2030.10  
probable  that  Western  and  south-­‐eastern  Europe   Water  scarcity  also  has  severe  implications  for  
will  see  reductions  in  crop  yields  because  of  hot   food  production.  According  to  the  International  
and  dry  summers,  without  the  option  of  shifting   Food  Policy  Research  Institute,  the  biggest  
crop  production  into  winter  as  in  parts  of  the   limitation  to  food  production  by  2025  will  be  
Mediterranean  area.8   water.  Not  only  is  this  resource  already  scarce,  
but  it  is  facing  considerable  and  unsustainable  
It  is  also  predicted  that  changes  in  temperature  
demand  from  multiple  users,  and  farmers  are  
and  rainfall  patterns  could  lead  to  a  3  –  84  per  
increasingly  competing  for  water  with  industries  
cent  surge  in  food  prices.9  If  this  were  to  occur,  
and  urban  residents.  Under  the  current  water  
the  implications  for  poorer  and  larger  households  
policies  and  the  global  model  of  supply  and  
would  be  disastrous.  
demand  for  food  and  water,  farmers  will  find  it  
more  and  more  difficult  to  meet  the  world’s  food  
needs.  Further  disregard  for  investments  and  
policies  related  to  water  will  engender  a  severe  
water  crisis,  which  will  in  turn  cause  a  food  
crisis.11  The  agricultural  sector  consumes  
approximately  70  per  cent  of  the  earth’s  
accessible  freshwater,  and  food-­‐producing  
countries  such  as  the  US,  Australia,  Spain,  India,  
Pakistan  and  China  have  already  reached,  or  are  
close  to  reaching,  their  renewable  water  resource  
limits.  The  main  reasons  for  unsustainable  and  
wasteful  water  use  are:  cultivation  of  thirsty  crops  
Projected  water  scarcity     that  are  not  suited  to  the  environment,  wasteful  
application  methods  and  leaky  irrigation  systems.  
In  the  last  hundred  years,  water  use  has  been   The  problem  is  further  exacerbated  by  weak  
growing  more  than  twice  as  fast  as  the  rate  of   environmental  legislation,  low  political  and  public  
population  increase,  and  water  scarcity  affects   awareness  of  the  crisis  and  misdirected  
every  continent:  1.2  billion  people  live  in  regions   subsidies.12    
of  physical  scarcity,  500  million  people  are  close  
to  reaching  that  situation,  and  another  1.6  billion  
are  faced  with  economic  water  shortage  because  
some  countries  do  not  have  the  necessary  
infrastructure  to  extract  water  from  rivers  and  
aquifers.  Currently,  water  scarcity  is  both  a  
natural  and  an  anthropogenic  phenomenon  and  
there  is  still  enough  for  seven  billion  people.  
However,  it  is  unevenly  distributed  and  a  large  
proportion  of  it  is  polluted,  wasted  and  
unsustainably  managed.  If  the  situation  does  not  
change,  nearly  half  of  the  global  population  could  

   
  Why  Malthus  is  still  relevant  today          |        3  
 
  

 
 

The  impact  of  El  Niño   Conclusion  

El  Niño  is  a  weather  pattern  where  warm  waters   The  argument  that  new  food  production  
of  the  central  Pacific  expand  eastward  towards   technologies  mean  indefinite  food  security  is  not  
North  and  South  America.  The  current  El  Niño   as  evident  as  it  may  have  been  in  the  past.  While  
cycle  has  contributed  to  2015  being  the  warmest   biotechnology  has  helped  feed  the  world’s  
year  in  history,  and  the  phenomenon  is  so   growing  population  in  recent  decades,  water  
powerful  that  aid  agencies  are  expecting  an   scarcity  and  climate  change  related  weather  
increase  in  the  threat  of  hunger  and  disease  for   pattern  disruptions  are  drastically  threatening  
millions  in  2016.  More  incidences  of  drought  and   crop  yields.  Low  crop  production  will  lead  to  a  
flooding  are  anticipated,  with  the  worst  impacts   surge  in  food  prices,  affecting  the  most  vulnerable  
likely  to  be  in  Africa  where  food  shortages  are   and  increasing  the  number  of  people  who  are  
forecasted  to  peak  in  February  2016.  Central   undernourished.  Malthus  is  therefore  relevant  
America,  South  America  and  the  Caribbean  will   today  because  the  risk  of  famine  is  still  present.  As  
also  be  affected  in  the  next  six  months.  However,   the  global  population  continues  to  grow  and  food  
El  Niño  is  not  only  significant  for  developing   supply  is  increasingly  threatened,  the  idea  that  
countries.  They  will  be  more  directly  affected  by   global  population  will,  one  day,  outstrip  the  
natural  disasters,  but  the  developed  world  will  be   world’s  ability  to  feed  itself  does  not  seem  that  
faced  with  a  growth  in  food  prices,  especially  for   far-­‐fetched.  
coffee,  rice,  cocoa  and  sugar.13    
                                                                                                                       
1
  http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/m
althus_thomas.shtml  
2
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011
/oct/19/gm-­‐crops-­‐insecurity-­‐superweeds-­‐
pesticides  
3
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014
/mar/31/climate-­‐change-­‐food-­‐supply-­‐un  
4
http://www.climate.org/topics/agriculture.html  
5
 http://www.wfp.org/climate-­‐change/climate-­‐
impacts  
6
 http://ciesin.org/docs/004-­‐138/004-­‐138.html  
7
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/climate-­‐
change/factsheet_en.pdf  
8
http://www.eea.europa.eu/signals/signals-­‐
2015/articles/agriculture-­‐and-­‐climate-­‐change  
9
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014
/mar/31/climate-­‐change-­‐food-­‐supply-­‐un  
10
https://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity
.shtml  
11
http://www.sidnlps.org.pk/available_online/wat
er2025-­‐tanveer.pdf  
12
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/a
griculture/impacts/water_use/  
13
 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-­‐
environment-­‐35159826  

   
  Why  Malthus  is  still  relevant  today          |        4