INF Treaty and Implications

Why has the US left INF Treaty? What could be its implication? and also suggest a way froward.
Introduction
Although September 11 was horrible, it didn't threaten the survival of the human race, like nuclear
weapons do.
-Stephen Hawking
• On February 2, 2019, the United States provided its six-month notice of withdrawal from the
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty due to the Russian Federation’s continuing
violation of the treaty.
• Washington had withdrawn from the treaty on 2 August 2019.
• It will unleash a nuclear arms race in the world
• Both parties should reconsider it.
INF Treaty and Results
• Under the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, the US and Soviet Union agreed
not to develop, produce, possess or deploy any ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles
that have a range between 500 and 5,500 km.
• However the INF treaty exempted the air-launched and sea-based missile systems in the
same range.
• After the INF Treaty, the United States and the Soviet Union together destroyed a total of
2,692 short-, medium-, and intermediate-range missiles by June 1, 1991, the treaty’s
implementation deadline.
Why did US leave INF Treaty?
1: Russian Non-compliance :U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to“terminate” the landmark
1987 nuclear arms-control pact with Russia in response to a long-running dispute over Russian non-
compliance of the treaty.
• The United States first alleged about this non-compliance in the 2014 Compliance Report,
stating that Russia is in violation of its INF Treaty obligations “not to possess, produce, or
flight-test” a ground-launched cruise missile in the range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers or “to
possess or produce launchers of such missiles.”
• Subsequent State Department assessments in 2015, 2016, and 2017 have repeated these
allegations. Russia denies that it is in violation of the agreement.
• As a follow up to this, on December 8, 2017, the Trump administration released a strategy to
counter these alleged Russian violations of the INF Treaty. This decision suspends American
obligations under the treaty, and terminates the INF accord unless Russia comes into
compliance within six months, which is unlikely.
• 2: The INF Treaty did not include China: Another angle to this termination to the INF treaty
is the perceived threat from China, which is not a part of this restriction from deployment of
the tactical nuclear weapons and is now Chinese military is carving out a greater sphere of
influence in the Western Pacific. The US has hence, also called this INF treaty outdated and
withdrawal frees them from restrictions.
• 3: Hawkish and Immature Posture/ Behaviour of President Trump
What would happen in the absence of treaty?
• US may deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe to counter Russia and in the
retaliation Russia may deploy in its exclave of Kaliningrad. This could once again turn Europe into
one of the potential nuclear battlefields.
• US may deploy ground-based missile system in Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. This could
embolden China to speed up its missile installation in the strategic areas of the region including
South China Sea.
• It could lead to form a bad precedent for the nuclear power countries like North Korea,
Pakistan, Iran and Israel. These countries may accelerate the process of acquiring more nuclear
weapons by resorting to an excuse that responsible nuclear powers like US and Russia do not
even adhere to their own treaties of non-proliferating of nuclear weapons.
• The abrogation of treaty will further accelerate the nuclear armed race. INF abrogation will
raise questions regarding the United States’ commitment to arms control in general, lending
further weight to the sense that the 21st century will be an era of arms racing rather than
negotiation.
• This move is also likely to undermine the 2010 New START treaty governing U.S. and Russian
long-range nuclear systems. The INF Treaty’s demise will undercut New START by reopening
questions on the relationship between intermediate and strategic systems that have been
resolved for 30 years by the elimination of ground-based, intermediate-range missiles.
The Way Forward
kuch kud be socho. way forward should be yours and all should give different way forward
Conclusion
“Our moral imperative is to work with all our powers for that day when the children of the world grow
up without the fear of nuclear war.”
Ronald Reagan,
Note: search your relevant quote.

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Why has the US left INF Treaty? What could be its implication? and also suggest a way froward.

• Washington had withdrawn from the treaty on 2 August 2019.

• It will unleash a nuclear arms race in the world

• Both parties should reconsider it.

INF Treaty and Results

Why did US leave INF Treaty?

• 3: Hawkish and Immature Posture/ Behaviour of President Trump

What would happen in the absence of treaty?

The Way Forward

Note: search your relevant quote.

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