WP/17/77

World Trade in Services: Evidence from A New Dataset

by Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, and Ke Wang

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published
to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers
are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its
Executive Board, or IMF management.
© 2017 International Monetary Fund WP/17/77

IMF Working Paper

Research Department

World Trade in Services: Evidence from A New Dataset*

Prepared by Prakash Loungani (IMF), Saurabh Mishra (University of Maryland),

Chris Papageorgiou (IMF), and Ke Wang (IMF)

Authorized for distribution by Prakash Loungani

March 2017

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to
elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are
those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,
or IMF management.

Abstract

Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014,
this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an
increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and
stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and
catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave
of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural
transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.

JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F43, L8, L9, O11, O41

Keywords: Trade in services, sector-level data, technology, globalization, economic growth

Author’s E-Mail Address: [email protected]; [email protected];

[email protected]; [email protected]

*
We thank George Akerlof, Rahul Anand, Juliana Araujo, Kan Chen, Michele Coscia, Masud Cader, Romain Duval,
Christian Henn, Ricardo Hausmann, Silvia Matei, Catherine Pattillo, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, Kirstin Roster, Nikola
Spatafora, Siavash Toosi and seminar participants at the IMF and the IMF-WTO-WB Trade Workshop. We are also grateful
for assistance with data to the IMF Statistics Department and the World Economic Outlook Statistics team including
Michaela Denk, Saurabh Gupta, Mandy Hemmati, Raja Hettiarachchi, and Iulian Pogor. Nitya Aasaavari, Jun Ge and Sidra
Rehman provided excellent research assistance. This work benefited from financial support of the U.K.’s Department for
International Development (DFID). The views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors and should
not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.
 Contents Pages

1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................3
2. Constructing a New Dataset......................................................................................5
3. Patterns and Stylized Facts .......................................................................................8
3.1. World ................................................................................................................8
3.2 Country-income groups ......................................................................................9
3.3 Geographical regions .........................................................................................10
3.4 Country trends ....................................................................................................11
4. Research Applications .............................................................................................12
4.1 Modern services .................................................................................................12
4.2 Structural transformation ...................................................................................13
4.3 Resilience ...........................................................................................................14
4.4 Labor reallocation ..............................................................................................14
4.5 Income inequality...............................................................................................15
5. Conclusion ...............................................................................................................16
6. References ................................................................................................................17

TABLES

Table 1. BPM6 Service Credit Account Categories ............................................................20

Table 2. Largest service exporters in the world (in billions of current US$) ......................20

FIGURES

Figure 1. Countries reporting service exports data in BPM6, by income groups ................21
Figure 2. Share of services exports in total world exports and world GDP.........................21
Figure 3. Service exports of the world by sector .................................................................22
Figure 4. Share of world service exports in Advanced vs. Developing countries ...............22
Figure 5. Services exports by sector and income group ......................................................23
Figure 6. Export Services by Geographical Region.............................................................24
Figure 7. Top service exporters of selected sectors .............................................................25
Figure 8. Share of service exports in world service exports ................................................26
Figure 9. United States service exports: 1 and 2 digit levels ...............................................27
Figure 10. Export growth, comparing China and India (2000 is indexed to 100) ...............28
Figure 11. China service exports: 1 and 2 digit levels .........................................................29
Figure 12. India service exports: 1 digit and 2 digit ............................................................30
Figure 13. Modern service exports are one of the fastest growing sectors of the global
economy ...............................................................................................................................31
Figure 14. World map of service exports.............................................................................32
Figure 15. The contribution of services in economic growth ..............................................33
Figure 16. Resilience of service exports ..............................................................................34
Figure 17. Labor allocation and service export growth .......................................................34
Figure 18. Inequality and service exports ............................................................................35

APPENDICES

Technical Appendix Service Exports Data Compilation.....................................................36

Table A.1 Classification of Services (BPM6)......................................................................37
Table A.2. Country Coverage ..............................................................................................41
World Trade in Services 3

1 Introduction

The structure of economic production is continuously evolving, with trade in services playing an
ever greater role. Services export is an increasingly important component of a nation’s export
basket. Services exports are also growing as a share of the world economy. The share of services
export in total goods and services export has doubled from around 9 percent in 1970 to over 20
percent by 2014.

Although there are several likely channels that are responsible for driving up demand for world
trade in services, none is as instrumental as advances in technological change. Technological inno-
vations provide a wide array of services to be carried out in one location and consumed in many
other places. Historically, buyers and sellers needed to be face to face. However, increasingly
many services between buyers and sellers can be traded globally across and within borders almost
instantly through satellite networks. The internet and other systems of network technologies like
mobile phones, big data, and arti…cial intelligence are providing technical changes to production
techniques and business processes. Software has become the main component of all hardware sys-
tems. This has given services a physical presence like goods; they can be produced, and stored.
But perhaps it is the virtual capabilities of services, such as being transported cheaply and swiftly
in binary bits, that make it even more desirable than exported goods. These structural changes are
putting services at the center of world commerce, perhaps heralding a new wave of globalization.

Are the drivers of growth and development shifting away from manufacturing into services? It
may be too early to tell, but rapid inter-and-intra sectoral resource reallocations are o¤ering new
investments opportunities in a variety of tradable service activities. More recently, there is also a
growing sentiment in policy and media that the pace of globalization driven primarily by exports
in goods, may have started to decelerate after two decades of uninterrupted progress. Could trade
in services support a future wave of globalization, trade and growth? These questions have sparked
an interest in understanding the implications for trade in services on productivity, jobs and growth,
but very little is known about global services trade.

A nascent yet growing body of evidence has begun to challenge the long held tenets of economic
development that industrialization is the prime engine of growth. However, due to deeply rooted
prejudice against service sector, this classical view still remains prevalent. In The Wealth of Nations,
Adam Smith questioned the social value provided by “churchmen, lawyers, physicians, men of letters
World Trade in Services 4

of all kinds, players, bu¤oons, musicians, opera-singers, opera-dancers, etc.” Similarly, William
Baumol (1967) fostered the view that services are a sector resistant to improvements in productivity.
Provision of services— such as restaurant meals, haircuts, and medical checkups— required face-to-
face transactions. These did not lend themselves easily to standardization and trade, the source
of growth in productivity and hence income. Furthermore, Kaldor (1967) put forth an argument
for the supremacy of the industrial sector for the promotion of broad economic growth.1 Recent
evidence highlights that business services seem to allow productivity growth by the same Kaldorian
mechanisms that have traditionally made manufacturing the key driver of growth (see, e.g., Meglio,
Gallego, Maroto, and Savona, 2015; Flaaen, Ghani and Mishra, 2013). It is well accepted that the
stages of diversi…cation follow a non-monotonic path through the development pathway (see Imbs
and Wacziarg, 2003). India’s idiosyncratic pattern of development has been driven by service-
led growth, China’s growth as a manufacturing powerhouse quickly propelled its economy to a
middle-income level (Kochhar, Kumar, Rajan, Subramanian, and Tokatlidis, 2006). However, at
this juncture many middle-income countries including China are seeking new sources of growth
to be service-led (McKinsey, 2013). Further, as many resource-rich and low-income countries face
the Dutch-disease symptoms, service-led growth may propel the manufacturing base and o¤ers
opportunities for future growth strategies in these countries. The growing tradability of services
will remain an imperative for diversi…cation and competitiveness of nations across the development
spectrum (Copeland and Mattoo, 2007; Reinsdorf and Slaughter, 2009; Gervais and Jensen, 2014;
Leo and Philippe, 2014).
In this paper, we introduce a new disaggregated annual panel data set on global trade in services
for 192 countries, more detailed than any earlier e¤orts. The data is broken down into one and
two-digit disaggregation, providing as many as 27 services export sectors.
Using this rich dataset, it is shown that trading services are gaining momentum in world trade
and are becoming an increasingly important component of global production. Our analysis docu-
ments global trends in trading services and provides stylized facts documenting how countries di¤er
on various dimensions of exporting services. The paper makes the case that trading services are
not only catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could help continue the
strong globalization process started by exported goods. We argue that this development would have
1
For example, Kaldor’s “second law” states that there exists a positive relationship between growth in manu-
facturing production and growth in manufacturing productivity, with an implication for increasing returns in the
manufacturing sector.
World Trade in Services 5

serious implications to shifts in structural transformation, labor allocation, and income distribution
–issues that we start to consider later on in the paper.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. The next section describes in simple language the
construction of the dataset, leaving details for the Technical Appendix. Section 3 provides a rich
set of stylized facts for the world, country-income groups, and a few selected country cases. Poten-
tial research applications of the dataset in the areas of structural transformation, macroeconomic
volatility, labor reallocation and income inequality, are discussed in Section 4. Section 5 concludes.

2 Constructing a New Dataset

We construct new estimates by using information from the International Monetary Fund’s Balance
of Payments Statistics (BOPS). More speci…cally, we merge one, two, and three-digit classi…cation
to obtain 66 categories of services exports for 192 countries based on the Balance of Payments
Manual 6 (BPM6).
The IMF Statistics Department (STA) started publishing balance of payments (BOP) and
International Investment Position (IIP) data on a BPM6 presentational basis with the August 2012
editions of the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) and the online Balance of Payments
Statistics (BOPS) database. The data series began with 2005 data in electronic media and with
2008 data in the hard copy of IFS. To present data on a consistent BPM6 presentational basis, IMF
Statistics Department (STA) had worked closely with IMF member countries. For each country,
one of three approaches was followed:

(i) economies implemented BPM6 and provided their own BPM6 estimates;

(ii) economies reported BPM5 data to STA and opted for a “generic conversion” of
their data to a BPM6 basis using standard rules that are broadly applicable to a large
number of economies and over time; or

(iii) economies opted for a “customized” conversion of their BPM5 basis data, by ad-
justing the results from the “generic conversion” in consultation with the IMF.

With the September 2015 edition of the IFS, STA started re-disseminating an economy’s own
o¢ cial BPM6-basis estimates for all years for which the economy developed such estimates, and
World Trade in Services 6

converted BPM5-basis estimates for years where there are no o¢ cial BPM6-basis estimates. Major
changes on BOP services classi…cation from BPM5 to BPM6 include:

(i) BPM6 introduces …nancial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM);

(ii) methodological changes in insurance transactions;

(iii) treatment of Intellectual Property; and

(iv) addition of manufacturing services and maintenance services.

Countries report services data to STA as part of the balance of payments data collection for re-
dissemination in publications (IFS/BOP database). These data are only available at world-partner
level only, which means that information is only available for countries’export services to the rest
of the world following the BOP standard classi…cation, which can be found in the BPM6 Manual.
Bilateral level data for services are published by WTO and the World Bank with much smaller
coverage than the dataset we have constructed using BPM6. For convenience, users can refer to
the classi…cation of services as in BPM6/BOP and the MSITS 2010. The process of compilation
and validation of services data, is done individually by the responsible agencies in each country and
may di¤er according to the available source data by category of service.2
The BOPS is the only source of harmonized world data on services trade that includes developing
countries. The …nal dataset that we use is in an annual panel form for the time period 1948 –2014.
Given data quality concerns in earlier years, we focus on the available data from 1970 – 2014.3
Appendix Table 1 shows the BPM6 classi…cation metrics. The details highlight the degree of
disaggregation used for an integrated dataset for meaningful analysis.4
To improve the data quality and maximize available information, we have made the following
modi…cations to the raw data. For one-digit level services data, the main modi…cations include:

(i) Dropping any negative values of the export data because negative export values
imply those observations are actually imports. We dropped 178 observations at one-
2
BOP data: https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/bop.htm. For more information on the compilation of
services, we advise researchers to consult the BPM6 Compilation Guide (see link below), Chapter 12 on Services
and Chapter 14 in the MSITS Compilers Guide (also including country examples), but also other relevant chapters,
as needed. BPM6 Compilation Guide: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bop6comp.htm and MSITS
2010 CG: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/tradeserv/msits/CGmsits2010.htm.
3
While we make publicly available the entire dataset extending back to 1948, we urge caution in using the data
before 1970 as in earlier years many sectors have seen drastic changes in de…nitions and measurement.
4
See Technical Appendix and IMF’s BPM6 Manual Chapter 12 for details of what is included in each service
category.
World Trade in Services 7

digit level out of 50,582 of total one digit observations. Note that in sum, we dropped
315 observations out of total observations 158,602 at all digit levels.

(ii) Dropping 7,457 observations at the one-digit level with values equal to 0 which
imply the export sectors do not exist. In sum we dropped 22,773 observations at all
digit levels.

(iii) Generating the total sum of exports by summing up the export values at one-digit
level and compare the sum with the reported total exports value.

(iv) Calculating total count of sectors at the one-digit level to provide information for
data availability.

We processed two-digit level data with the following procedures:

(i) For three sectors “1.A.b.2 Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.”, “1.A.b.8 Charges
for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.”, “1.A.b.12 Government goods and services
n.i.e.”, we naturally used the one-digit data because by classi…cation those sectors are
reported at one-digit level.

(ii) For some sectors, if no two-digit level observations are available, we kept the one-
digit level to represent the sector.

(iii) If a sector had partial information of the two-digit level observations, we compen-
sated the data by generating “Other” categories at the two-digit level by subtracting
one-digit level sector value with available two-digit level subsectors. For example, if
a country only had data for one-digit “1.A.b.6 Insurance and pension services” and
subsector “1.A.b.6.1 Direct insurance”, we kept the subsector “Direct Insurance” and
compensated the other subsectors of insurance with “other” which is equal to the dif-
ference of the insurance sector and direct insurance.

(iv) If a sector had all categories of two-digit level sectors reported but the sum of
the two-digit sectors does not equal to the one-digit level value, we recalculated the
two-digit level values using the same ratio and one-digit level value to adjust for the
di¤erences.

(v) If a sector had all categories of two-digit level sectors reported but all the two-digit
observations equal to 0, we contract the sector because no real data exist.
World Trade in Services 8

A data portal that includes the newly constructed dataset in its entirety along with tools to
produce charts and stylized facts is made publicly available.5 Figure 1 summarizes the number of
countries by income groups reported in our dataset. In 2014, there is reliable aggregate data on
services export reported for 56 advanced economies and 111 developing countries.

3 Patterns and Stylized Facts

This section uses the newly developed dataset discussed in the previous section to identify stylized
facts on trading services for the world as a whole, di¤erent country-income groups, and selected
country cases, highlighting the increasingly important role of services export in the global economy.

3.1 World

Services export has become more important in trade. As Figure 2 shows, the share of services
export has increased from around 9 percent in 1970 to around 20 percent in 2014. Similarly, the
share of services export in world GDP has also increased from 1 percent in 1970 to over 6 percent
in 2014.
The rise in services trade has brought about a shift in gains from trading services across variety
of new activities. Many services sectors are gaining from reduced transportation costs thanks to
technological changes and growing tradability. In addition, services export plays a central role in
globally interconnected production networks and value chains. For instance, while Transport and
Travel have declined in relative importance of national export bundle, they are increasingly a vital
backbone for the rest of the economy. From the early 2000s, expanding merchandise trade and
international air passenger tra¢ c are responsible for signi…cant growth in the transport sector. In
2008, world transport exports reached US$ 891 billion (WTO, 2016).6
At the same time, services such as Telecommunication, Computer and Information services have
emerged as one of the most dynamic sectors. Between 1995 to 2014, world exports of computer
and information services expanded much more rapidly than any other services sector, recording as
much as 18 per cent growth on average annually. In 2014, world exports of computer and infor-
mation services reached an estimated US$ 302 billion. Similarly, …nancial services are increasingly
internationalized and growth of …nancial technologies (…n-tech) will likely continue to witness their
5
The data portal could be accessed through the IMF web site at: [http://data.imf.org/ITS].
6
Interestingly, following WTO accession, growth in services exports is even higher than in other economies even
if in the years prior to WTO accession, growth mirrored the world average (see WTO 2015).
World Trade in Services 9

exports in low income and developing countries. At the global level, …nancial services have grown
rapidly in world exports and have bounced back since the …nancial crisis to US$ 349 billion in
2014. Figure 3 illustrates the evolution of global services export basket between 1990 and 2014. We
clearly notice the increasing importance of computer and …nancial sectors from the density shift.

3.2 Country-income groups

The rise in services trade is not just an advanced economy story. Our stylized facts show that
globalization of services has been more signi…cant for developing countries, where services export is
growing much faster. Services export from developing countries have grown twice as fast compared
to advanced economies, growing tenfold since 1990. Developing countries share in world services
export market has increased from 3 percent in 1970 to over 20 percent in 2014. Figure 4 plots the
share of world exports, with advanced economies on the left axis and developing countries on the
right axis.
Figure 5 shows evolution of various services export sectors by income groups – High-income
countries (HIC’s), Middle-Income Countries (MIC’s), and Low-Income Countries (LIC’s). We note
that developing countries are fast taking over market share across various service exporting sectors,
not just in traditional but modern services as well. Travel and Transport service exports occupy
a major share of exports from developing countries, occupying about 20 percent of global market
share of transport services and around 30 percent of travel services. The growth of modern services
such as Business, Computer and Information, Finance and Intellectual Property services from
developing countries is also remarkable. Developing countries have been steadily increasing their
global market share in modern services reaching almost 30 percent of global exports. In particular,
developing countries have been consistently taking over the world market in Business services
(including R&D, professional, and management consulting), as well as in Intellectual Property and
Computer and Information service exports. Impressive also is the growing share of developing
countries in Financial services (occupying over half of world …nancial services export) as well as
Construction services. The range of modern services that can be digitized and traded globally is
constantly expanding. India has been a pioneer (Dehejia and Panagariya, 2010), but many other
emerging markets are also …nding it easier to generate productivity growth in services than in
industry.
Indeed, recent evidence suggests that expanding modern services may be a remedy for countries
World Trade in Services 10

facing the “middle-income trap”. This would work in practice, when traditional sectors with low
productivity shed labor, and high productivity modern sectors (be they in goods or services) grow
and hire more labor. Both processes are needed if a country is to climb out of the middle-income
trap (see Flaaen, Ghani and Mishra, 2013).

3.3 Geographical regions

This section examines the evolution of trading services from a regional perspective. The intention
here is to recognize that a country’s experience with exporting services depends not only on its
stage of development and income level, but also the geographical region it belongs to. As we will
see below, the experience of Asia over the last two decades is a very good point in case.
Europe is still the leader in services export. East Asia and Paci…c region has been catching up
and has recently become more signi…cant than North America, a phenomenon primarily driven by
Japan and China (Figure 6, Panel A). There is rapid inter and intra-sectoral reallocation taking
place into services within South Asia (SAR), Latin American countries (LAC) and Middle East
and North Africa (MENA) too. Figure 6 Panel B, illustrates the evolution of services export by
individual sectors across geographical regions of the world. The charts show that East Asia &
Paci…c are catching up in sectors such as Travel and Intellectual Property. South Asia is catching
up faster in Computer and Information services. MENA countries are impressively also catching
up fast in export of Business and Computer and Information services. While North America and
Europe dominate across a variety of service exports, Asian countries are fast catching up.
In reality, services account for a greater proportion of global trade and the export of services
are a crucial component of productivity growth. Europe (which is the largest commercial service
exporter) has two-thirds of its total GDP in the services sector, and for four-…fths of growth in
recent years is due to the services sector (see e.g., Uppenberg and Strauss, 2010). Similarly, over 70
percent of the surge in labor productivity in the US economy post 2000 is attributed to productivity
gains in services (see e.g., Bosworth and Triplett, 2008). Productivity growth driven by services
requires both …xed investment in building and ICT technologies, but also requires intangible capital
in terms of new computer software and skills in other disciplines so as to create new organizational
structures and business models, sometimes based entirely on services.7
7
A growing body of literature has found that using intermediary inputs into the production process, services
account for over half of world trade. This study is focused on the gross value of services trade. The goods and
services we buy are composed of inputs from various countries around the world. However, the ‡ows of goods and
World Trade in Services 11

3.4 Country trends

The growth in services export for some countries has been astonishing with almost 100-fold increase
in the last 30-40 years. Table 2 lists the top service exporters in the world reporting the export
value (in billions of current US$) and world rank based on export value for respective years. The
United States has remained the top services exporter while Europe as a region is the largest service
exporter. Several European nations are near the top of the list, but many developing countries are
catching up fast. China, India, are in the top 10, whereas Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Egypt are
in the top 30 and moving up rapidly.
At the sectoral level, the dynamics of the largest exporters is also rapidly evolving. Figure 7
illustrates patterns for the top exporters across various exporting sectors. The United States is
still one of the top exporters in many sectors, while the UK, France, Germany and some other
European countries are key players too. Emerging countries like India and China show larger role
in service exports in Transport, Travel and IT. In addition, Hong Kong has emerged as a prime
Financial services export hub, similarly, Israel a Computer services export hub and Thailand in
Travel services. These are only a few examples to demonstrate our new dataset’s usefulness in
exploring in more detail and depth the country-speci…c experiences with trade in services.
Figure 8 presents the share of country services export in world services export market in 1990
and 2014. It is clear that the importance of advanced economies like United States, France or
Germany has declined signi…cantly in world service export market (from 20 to14, 10 to 5, and
7 to 5 percent, respectively). Other emerging markets like China, India, Singapore, Korea, and
Hong-Kong have increased from almost negligible in 1990 to signi…cant positions in 2014 (4.8, 3.2,
2.9, 2.3, and 2.2, respectively).
The United States has been the world leader in services export. Traditional large sectors such
as Travel and Transport continue to contribute heavily to US services export, even as other modern
services have grown quickly such as Business services, Financial services, and the use of Intellectual
Property. From the 2-digit level data, the main growing subsectors under Other Business Services
are, R&D and Consulting services (Figure 9).
There has been much attention regarding India’s services export miracle defying the conven-
tional laws of structural transformation and economic development (Dehejia and Panagariya, 2014).

services within these global production chains are not always re‡ected in conventional measures of international Trade
in Value-Added (TiVA). Many initiatives are improving data standards on the role of services in input-output tables.
World Trade in Services 12

Indeed, the share of services export in India has tripled to over 3 percent of world services export
during the period 2000-2013. This stands in contrast to China, where export growth was driven by
exported goods (Figure 10).
Less known beyond the common impression of being a prime manufacturing exporter is the fact
that China has become one of the most important services exporter (rank 5th in the world in 2014),
as well as one of the largest services importer. Travel, Transport, and Other Business Services have
become the largest exporting sectors for China in the last few years. China has also made progress
in exports in Computer and Information and Construction and building signi…cant momentum in
other service sectors as well (Figure 11).
Turning to India, the largest sectors that dominated exports in this dynamic economy were
Computer and Information and other Business services (Figure 12). Indeed, India is the largest
Computer and Information service exporter in the world at around US$74 billion in 2014. This
is quite impressive and highly unique for an emerging market. However, it is interesting to point
out that India is behind China in more traditional export services, such as, Transport, Travel, and
Manufacturing services with a gap of over US$60 billion.

4 Research Applications

This section provides potential research applications using the newly developed dataset. Speci…-
cally, we report preliminary evidence of the emerging importance of modern services in the global
economy, the role of exporting services in the process of structural transformation, and also consider
implications of the upward trend in trading services for macroeconomic volatility, labor reallocation
and inequality.

4.1 Modern services

A growing share of world trade takes place without proximity of buyer and supplier. These ICT
enabled services are typically called modern services. Many other services, called traditional ser-
vices, still require proximity of buyer and seller. Services such as Transport, Travel or Retailers
still require physical presence, however, they too are gaining from network e¤ects and technology
enabled tradability (Loungani and Mishra, 2014). The line between the traditional-and-modern
service activities will only become more blurred, with many traditional services becoming modern.
World Trade in Services 13

For simplicity, let us classify Computer, Information, Business, Intellectual property and Fi-
nancial services as modern services. The results are presented in Figure 13. This shift to modern
services export has spread across countries at di¤erent income levels leading hi-technology ser-
vices export becoming one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy. The gains from
technological advancement and trade provide lower entry barriers for such modern services to be
tradable, and also enable reduced transport costs. The rise of modern services is an important
trend concerning global export reallocation, particularly related to growth strategies for developing
countries.
Similarly, Figure 14 Panel A plots the world map where the color denotes the export value in
billions of dollars for a country in 2014. The color spectrum of darker blue indicates services export
value exceeds US$200 billion, a dark red indicated export values below US$10 billion. It is easy to
identify countries like China, Russia, and Australia that have exported US$230, US$66, and US$54,
billion respectively. In similar light, comparing the level of services export and relative growth in
services export can be viewed in Panel B. The color scheme is the same as above, however, the
bubble size represents the compounded annual growth rate of services export between 2000 and
2014. It is interesting to note that many Middle East, African and Latin American countries have
witnessed services export growth over 30 percent during this period.

4.2 Structural transformation

There is also some suggestive evidence that movements in service value added are more correlated to
country level GDP growth outcomes. The relation of service growth with overall economic growth
has become stronger overtime, hence we highlight results only for latest time period concerning
2010-14. Figure 15 Panel A below plots the average annual growth in services, manufacturing, and
agriculture value added against per capita GDP growth for almost all countries in the world between
2010-2014. It is shown that the slope between services and GDP growth is steeper than the relevant
slope for manufacturing and agriculture. Speci…cally, the magnitude of the correlation coe¢ cient
is 0.60 between services growth and per capita GDP growth, compared to 0.24 for manufacturing
growth versus per capita GDP growth. In addition, the R-square for service value added plot is
0.51 and the R-square for manufacturing value added is 0.19.
Our evidence illustrates that exports of services is also associated with higher per capita GDP
growth. Figure 15 Panel B plots the average per capita GDP growth between 2010-14 and sectoral
World Trade in Services 14

export growth. The magnitude of the coe¢ cient on services export growth is substantially higher
than other sectors. The coe¢ cient estimates are 0.07 for Agriculture, 0.04 for Mining, 0.08 for
Manufacturing, and 0.14 for Services.

4.3 Resilience

Services trade has been more resilient than trade in goods to shocks and …nancial crisis. Recent
evidence from the United States shows that services trade has weathered the …nancial crisis much
better than goods trade. For example, as of February 2009, the value of US goods imports had
declined year-on-year by 33 percent and the value of goods exports by 21 percent; services imports
and exports each had declined by less than 7 percent. Particularly important to note is that the
range of modern services has continued to grow since the crisis. Perhaps more important is the
fact that services export from developing countries has been more resilient than from advanced
economies.
There are two potential reasons for the resilience of services trade: First, demand for a range
of traded services is less cyclical, and second, services trade and production are less dependent
on external …nance (Borchert and Mattoo, 2009). Similarly, recent research using …rm-product
destination exports for Belgium has shown that the particular resilience of services is explained by
a signi…cantly lower elasticity to demand in export markets. Services exports declined on average
5 percent less than exports of goods following a 1 percent decrease in GDP growth in destination
countries for Belgium. Again, modern business services have been substantially more resilient than
traditional services (Ariu, 2014).
In this vein, Figure 16 plots the average annual growth in goods and services export for the
world, highlighting the crisis years. We note that services export has been more resilient than goods
exports globally.

4.4 Labor reallocation

Trade in services also o¤ers opportunities for labor reallocation and job creation for the decades
ahead to address the growing polarization of labor markets. The demand for jobs for the future
global workforce would be led by the technology infrastructure that powers the internet and system
of network technologies. As automation of routine tasks and codi…cation of job tasks becomes more
prevalent and macro-critical, national economies are already starting to reallocate labor based on
World Trade in Services 15

such consumer preferences and forces of global demand. Evidence from United States and European
economies has shown that specialized local labor markets in routine tasks have di¤erentially adopted
information technology.

These technical forces have placed low-skill labor into service occupations (employment po-
larization) and evidence across various recent studies has rea¢ rmed that earnings growth are at
the tails of the distribution (wage polarization), especially at low end of service occupations and
at the very high end, with a hollowing out at the middle (Autor, 2010; Autor and Dorn, 2013).
Jobs in manufacturing have witnessed a secular decline, not just in advanced economies but across
developing economies as well.

For illustration purposes, Figure 17 plots the average annual growth in total employment of
countries (for period 2010-2014) against the average annual growth in services export for the same
time period. The upward sloping curve has many uncertainties, but provides some support to
the hypothesis that on average, countries that experience higher growth in exporting services also
experience fast job growth.

4.5 Income inequality

Finally, export of services may be more inclusive than the traditional goods based model of the world
economy that is well accepted. Figure 18 plots the level of Gini coe¢ cient (Solt, 2014) as an average
for 1980-2014 against the average natural log of services export, across a large number of developing
and advanced countries. The second chart shows the relationship between inequality and services
exports in percent of GDP. Interestingly, it is shown that there is a negative correlation between the
change in export services and income inequality. An explanation could be related to the previous
discussion on labor reallocation which may trigger an upward labor mobility bene…ting primarily
low- and middle-income workers. Another plausible explanation is that female labor employment
increases in countries with a sizable export service sector, thereby providing a downward pressure
in gender inequality which in turn translates to lower income inequality. Examining these and other
potential mechanisms by which export services could play a catalytic role in reducing inequality is
a promising area of future research.
World Trade in Services 16

5 Conclusion

This paper constructs a novel dataset on trade in services covering 192 countries from 1970 to 2014
drawing on information from the IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS). Using this new
dataset, the paper then proceeds by assembling a rich set of stylized facts and emerging patterns
on export services for the world as a whole, di¤erent country-income groups, geographical regions,
and several selected country cases. Finally, research applications are outlined, including those on
structural transformation, macroeconomic volatility, labor reallocation, and inequality.
The evidence from the analysis in this paper makes the case that trade is rapidly shifting away
from manufacturing and into services. Could this be a good thing for the global economy which for
so long depended on the stable engines of manufacturing production and exports? Could the future
wealth of nations be written on the technological foundation and dynamism of exporting services?
The industrial revolution built the manufacturing process with the steam engine, division of labor,
electricity and mass manufactured production. The post WWII era provided the foundations of
modern day computing and electronics. Today, structural changes are putting services at the center
of world commerce, heralding a service revolution. Evidence from this paper suggests that export of
services may indeed be a game-changer, o¤ering an opportunity to revive and sustain globalization.
Thanks to the growing tradability of services, service led growth could be the new norm for countries
seeking an alternative growth strategy where manufacturing resources are exhausted. And in that
case the economics literature on international trade agreements based on tari¤ agreements covering
trade in goods should be revisited to seriously consider trade-in-services agreemets (Staiger and
Sykes, 2016).
Technological innovation is increasingly making services exportable at low prices, and thus caus-
ing a shift in a 60-year-old economic paradigm about tradable versus nontradable sectors (Meade,
1956; Swan, 1960; Corden, 1960), in that countries do not need to build a domestic market or in-
vest …rst in a manufacturing sector, but rather “leapfrog” directly to exporting services. In such a
case, service globalization o¤ers new hope for countries at various stages of economic development.
Growing tradability of services may help with the diversi…cation strategies for resource-rich coun-
tries and low-income countries that are highly concentrated exporters. For advanced economies,
harnessing the bene…ts of trade in services will likely remain a key factor to retaining their global
competitive edge that powers the internet, and high value components in global value chains.
World Trade in Services 17

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 20
Table 1. BPM6 Service Credit Account Categories

Service Sector: 1 digit level 2 digit level

Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. --

Construction Construction abroad
Construction in reporting economy
Financial services Explicitly charged and other financial services
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)
Government goods and services n.i.e. --
Insurance and pension services Auxiliary insurance services
Direct insurance
Pension and standardized guaranteed services
Reinsurance
Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. --
Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Goods for processing abroad
Goods for processing in reporting economy
Other Business Services Professional and management consulting services
Research and development services
Technical, trade-related, and other business services
Personal, cultural, and recreational services Audiovisual and related services
Other personal, cultural, and recreational services
Telecommunications, computer, and information services Computer services
Information services
Telecommunications services
Air Transport
Transport Other mode of Transport
Postal and courier services
Sea Transport
Travel Business
Personal

Sources: BPM6, IMF.

Table 2. Largest service exporters in the world (in billions of current US$)

Top Exporters

Emerging Markets

Sources: BPM6, World Economic Outlook, and authors’ calculations.

 21
Figure 1. Countries reporting service exports data in BPM6, by income groups

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15
High income: OECD

10 High income: nonOECD

Low income
5 Lower middle income
Upper middle income
0
1970

1972

1974

1976

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

2008

2010

2012
1978

1980

1982

1984

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006
Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.

Figure 2. Share of services exports in total world exports and world GDP

Sources: BPM6, World Economic Outlook, and authors’ calculations.

 22
Figure 3. Service exports of the world by sector

Services Exports of the World,

(by 1 digit sector level, in billions of U.S. dollars)
6000

Billions 5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Intellectual property Construction

Financial services Government goods and services n.i.e.

Insurance and pension services Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.

Manufacturing services Other Business Services

Personal, cultural, and recreational services Telecommunications, computer, and information services

Transport Travel

Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.

Figure 4. Share of world service exports in Advanced vs. Developing countries

Notes: Developing countries include low-income, and lower- and upper-middle

income countries following the World Bank’s country income classification.
Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.
 23
Figure 5. Services exports by sector and income group

Notes: High-, Middle-, Low-Income country groups follow the World Bank’s country income classification.
Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.
 24
Figure 6. Export Services by Geographical Region

Panel A. Regional Developments

Panel B. Regional developments in selected sectors

Notes: Geographical regions are classified using the IMF’s World Economic Outlook classification
system.
Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.
 25
Figure 7. Top service exporters of selected sectors

Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.

 26
Figure 8. Share of service exports in world service exports

1990 2014

19.48 United States 14.6

United States
United Kingdom 7.4
France 10.23
Germany 5.7
Germany 8.08
France 5.7
United Kingdom 7.43
China 4.8
Italy 6.09
Japan 3.3
Japan 5.45
India 3.2

Netherlands 3.95 3.2

Netherlands

Spain 3.68 Singapore 2.9

2.95 Ireland 2.7

Austria
2.49 Spain 2.7
Canada
Belgium 2.5
Switzerland 2.41
Switzerland 2.4
Sweden 1.78
Italy 2.3
Denmark 1.69
Korea 2.3
Singapore 1.69
Hong Kong SAR 2.2
Norway 1.68
Luxembourg 2.0

Mexico 1.53 1.8

Canada

0 5 10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
percent of world service exports (%) percent of world service exports (%)

Notes: The Euro Area as a whole occupied the biggest world market share of almost 16% in 2014 (not shown in
chart). Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.
 27
Figure 9. United States service exports: 1 and 2 digit levels

USA Service Exports,

( 1 digit level, in billions of U.S. dollars)
800 Travel
Billions

700 Transport

Telecommunications, computer, and information services

600

Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.

500
Personal, cultural, and recreational services
400
Other Business Services

300
Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.

200 Insurance and pension services

100 Government goods and services n.i.e.

Financial services
0
Construction

USA Service Exports,

( 2 digit level, in share of total) Travel: All Travel
100% Travel: Personal
Travel: Business
90% Transport: Sea Transport
Transport: Postal and courier services
80% Transport: Other mode of Transport
Transport: Air Transport
70% Telecommunication: Telecommunications services
Telecommunication: Information services
60%
Telecommunication: Computer services
Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.
50%
Personal and Cultural: Audiovisual and related services
Other business: Technical, trade-related, and other business services
40%
Other business: Research and development services

30% Other business: Professional and management consulting services

Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.
20% Insurance and pension: All Insurance and pension
Insurance and pension: Reinsurance
10% Insurance and pension: Other
Insurance and pension: Direct insurance
0% Insurance and pension: Auxiliary insurance services
Government goods and services n.i.e.
Financial services: Explicitly charged and other
Construction: Construction abroad

Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.

 28
Figure 10. Export growth, comparing China and India
(2000 is indexed to 100)

2500
India Services China Services India Goods China Goods

2000

Export Growth (2000 = 100)

1500

1000

500

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014
Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.
 29

Figure 11. China service exports: 1 and 2 digit levels

China Service Exports

(1 digit level, in billions of U.S. dollars)
250
Billions

Travel

200 Transport

Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.

Telecommunications, computer, and information services

150
Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.

Personal, cultural, and recreational services

Other Business Services

100
Insurance and pension services

Government goods and services n.i.e.

50 Financial services

Construction

Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others

0

China Service Exports

(2 digit level, in share of total)
100%
Travel
90% Transport
Transport, Sea Transport
80% Transport, Other mode of Transport
Transport, Air Transport
70% Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.
Telecommunications, computer, and information services
60% Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.
Personal, cultural, and recreational services
50%
Personal, cultural, and recreational services, Audiovisual and related services
Other Business Services
40%
Other Business Services, Technical, trade-related, and other business services
Other Business Services, Research and development services
30%
Other Business Services, Professional and management consulting services
Insurance and pension services
20%
Government goods and services n.i.e.
10% Financial services
Financial services, Explicitly charged and other financial services
0% Construction
Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others

Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.

 30
Figure 12. India Service Exports: 1 digit and 2 digit

India Service Exports

(1 digit level, in billions of U.S.dollars )
180
Billions

160 Travel

Transport
140
Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.

120 Telecommunications, computer, and information services

Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.

100
Personal, cultural, and recreational services
80 Other Business Services

Insurance and pension services

60
Government goods and services n.i.e.
40 Financial services

Construction
20
Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by
0 others
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India Service Exports

(2 digit level, in share of total)

100% Travel, Personal

Travel, Business
90% Transport, Sea Transport
Transport, Postal and courier services
Transport, Other mode of Transport
80% Transport, Air Transport
Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.
70% Telecommunications: Telecommunications services
Telecommunications: Information services
Telecommunications: Computer services
60% Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.
Other personal, cultural, and recreational services
50% Audiovisual and related services
Other business: Technical, trade-related, and other business services
Other business: Research and development services
40% Other business: Professional and management consulting services
Insurance and pension services: Reinsurance
30% Insurance and pension services: Other
Insurance and pension services: Direct insurance
20% Insurance and pension services: Auxiliary insurance services
Government goods and services n.i.e.
Financial services: FISIM
10% Financial services: Explicitly charged and other
Construction abroad
0% Construction in reporting economy
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others

Sources: BPM6, and authors’ calculations.

 31
Figure 13. Modern service exports are one of the fastest growing sectors
of the global economy

1990-2000 2000-07 2008-14

20%

COMPOUND ANNUAL EXPORT GROWTH

15%

10%

5%

0%
Traditional Services Modern Services
Manufacturing Hi-Tech Manufacturing

Sources: BPM6, 2016 UN COMTRADE, and authors’ calculations.

 32
Figure 14. World map of service exports

Panel A. Value in billions of current US$ in service exports, 2014

Panel B. Compounded annual growth in service exports and export value

Export in Billions

CAGR

Notes: Panel A shows the service export value in billions of dollars. Panel B represents the bubble size as the
compounded annual growth rate of service exports between 2000 and 2014. The color represents US$ amounts.
Sources: BPM6, World Economic Outlook, and authors’ calculations.
 33
Figure 15. The contribution of services in economic growth

Panel A. Sectoral Value added growth and per capita GDP growth

Panel B. Sectoral export growth and per capita GDP growth

Sources: BPM6, World Economic Outlook, World Development Indicators, and authors’ calculations.
 34
Figure 16. Resilience of service exports

40 1.2

Crisis Service Goods

30
1

Average Annual Export Growth (%)

20
0.8

10
0.6

0
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.4

-10

0.2
-20

-30 0

Sources: BPM6, NBER, and authors’ calculations.

Figure 17. Labor allocation and service export growth

Sources: BPM6, ILO, and authors’ calculations

 35
Figure 18. Inequality and service exports

Inequality and Service Exports, 1980-2014

.8
Gini Inequality Index

.6
.4
.2

16 18 20 22 24 26
Service Exports, value in log

Advanced Economies Emerging Markets

Low-income countries Fitted values

Inequality and Service Exports, 1980-2014

.8
.6
.4
.2

0 20 40 60
Service Exports, in % of GDP

Advanced Economies Emerging Markets

Low-income Countries Fitted values

Sources: BPM6, UNU-WIDER, and authors’ calculations

 36
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
SERVICE EXPORTS DATA COMPILATION
1) Raw
Service Data
provided by
country
officials
2) IMF
Statistics
Department
Validates
3) Balance of
Payments
Survey Filled
by IMF
Country
Economist

3
 37
Table A.1 Classification of Services (BPM6)
38
39
40
 41
Table A.2. Country Coverage

Country Name Start Date End Date Country Name Start Date End Date
Afghanistan 1979 2014 Curaçao 2011 2014
Angola 1985 2014 Cyprus 1976 2014
Anguilla 1990 2013 Czech Republic 1993 2015
Albania 1980 2015 Germany 1971 2014
Argentina 1976 2014 Djibouti 1991 2013
Armenia 1993 2014 Dominica 1976 2013
Antigua and Barbuda 1977 2013 Denmark 1975 2014
Australia 1960 2014 Dominican Republic 1968 2014
Austria 1967 2015 Algeria 1977 2014
Azerbaijan 1995 2015 Ecuador 1976 2014
Burundi 1985 2013 Egypt 1977 2014
Belgium 2002 2015 Eritrea 1995 2000
Benin 1974 2014 Spain 1975 2015
Burkina Faso 1974 2014 Estonia 1992 2014
Bangladesh 1976 2014 Ethiopia 1977 2012
Bulgaria 1980 2014 Finland 1975 2005
Bahrain 1975 2014 Fiji 1979 2013
Bahamas 1976 2014 France 1975 2014
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1998 2015 Micronesia 2009 2014
Belarus 1993 2015 Gabon 1978 2005
Belize 1984 2014 United Kingdom 1970 2014
Bolivia 1976 2014 Georgia 1997 2014
Brazil 1975 2015 Ghana 1975 2014
Barbados 1970 2013 Guinea 1986 2013
Brunei Darussalam 2001 2009 Gambia, The 1978 2012
Bhutan 2006 2015 Guinea-Bissau 1982 2013
Botswana 1975 2014 Equatorial Guinea 1987 1988
Central African Rep. 1977 1994 Greece 1976 2015
Canada 1948 2015 Grenada 1977 2013
Switzerland 1977 2014 Guatemala 1977 2015
Chile 1975 2015 Guyana 1977 2014
China 1982 2014 Hong Kong SAR 1998 2014
Côte d'Ivoire 1975 2013 Honduras 1974 2014
Cameroon 1977 2013 Croatia 1993 2014
Congo, DR 2000 2014 Haiti 1971 2015
Congo, Republic 1978 2007 Hungary 1982 2015
Colombia 1968 2014 Indonesia 1981 2014
Comoros 1980 2012 India 1975 2014
Cabo Verde 1977 2015 Ireland 1974 2014
Costa Rica 1977 2014 Iran 1976 2000
 42

Country Name Start Date End Date Country Name Start Date End Date
Iraq 2005 2012 Mauritania 1975 2014
Iceland 1976 2014 Montserrat 1986 2013
Israel 1952 2015 Mauritius 1976 2014
Italy 1970 2015 Malawi 1977 2014
Jamaica 1976 2015 Malaysia 1974 2014
Jordan 1972 2014 Namibia 1990 2014
Japan 1977 2014 Niger 1974 2013
Kazakhstan 1995 2014 Nigeria 1977 2014
Kenya 1975 2014 Nicaragua 1977 2015
Kyrgyz Republic 1993 2014 Netherlands 1967 2015
Cambodia 1992 2014 Norway 1975 2015
Kiribati 1979 2014 Nepal 1976 2014
St. Kitts and Nevis 1980 2013 New Zealand 1972 2014
Korea 1976 2015 Oman 1978 2014
Kosovo 2004 2014 Pakistan 1976 2014
Kuwait 1975 2014 Panama 1977 2015
Lao P.D.R. 1984 2013 Peru 1977 2015
Lebanon 2002 2014 Philippines 1977 2015
Liberia 1979 2014 Palau 2005 2014
Libya 1977 2013 Papua New Guinea 1976 2014
St. Lucia 1976 2013 Poland 1976 2015
Sri Lanka 1975 2014 Portugal 1975 2014
Lesotho 1975 2014 Paraguay 1975 2014
Lithuania 1993 2015 Palestine 1995 2014
Luxembourg 1999 2015 Qatar 2011 2015
Latvia 1992 2015 Romania 1971 2014
Macao SAR 2002 2014 Russia 1994 2014
Morocco 1975 2013 Rwanda 1976 2014
Moldova 1994 2015 Saudi Arabia 1971 2015
Madagascar 1974 2013 Sudan 1977 2014
Maldives 1977 2014 Senegal 1974 2011
Mexico 1979 2015 Singapore 1972 2014
Marshall Islands 2005 2014 Solomon Islands 1975 2014
Macedonia, FYR 1996 2015 Sierra Leone 1977 2014
Mali 1975 2013 El Salvador 1976 2014
Malta 1971 2015 Somalia 1977 1985
Myanmar 1976 2014 Serbia 2007 2014
Montenegro 2007 2015 São Tomé &Príncipe 1974 2014
Mongolia 1981 2014 Suriname 1977 2015
Mozambique 1980 2014 Slovak Republic 1993 2014
 43

Country Name Start Date End Date

Slovenia 1992 2015
Sweden 1970 2015
Swaziland 1974 2014
Sint Maarten 2011 2014
Seychelles 1976 2014
Syria 1977 2010
Chad 1977 1994
Togo 1974 2013
Thailand 1975 2014
Tajikistan 2002 2014
Turkmenistan 1996 1997
Timor-Leste 2006 2014
Tonga 1971 2013
Trinidad and Tobago 1975 2011
Tunisia 1976 2014
Turkey 1974 2015
Tuvalu 2001 2013
Tanzania 1976 2014
Uganda 1980 2014
Ukraine 1994 2014
Uruguay 1978 2015
United States 1970 2015
St. Vin & Grenadines 1978 2013
Venezuela 1970 2014
Vanuatu 1982 2014
Samoa 1977 2014
Yemen 1990 2014
South Africa 1948 2015
Zambia 1978 2014
Zimbabwe 1977 1994