Crescimento Mundial N. U
Crescimento Mundial N. U
Crescimento Mundial N. U
REVISION
World
Urbanization
United Nations
Prospects [highlights]
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a
vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres
and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it com-
piles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data
and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common
problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member
States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or
emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and
means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and
summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps
build national capacities.
Note
The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations
concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or
concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with fig-
ures.
Suggested citation:
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014).
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352).
ISBN 978-92-1-151517-6
asdf
United Nations
New York, 2014
“Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire”
UN/Basile Zoma
1
Introduction
In today’s increasingly global and interconnected world, over half of the world’s popula-
tion (54 per cent) lives in urban areas although there is still substantial variability in the
levels of urbanization across countries (figure 1). The coming decades will bring further
profound changes to the size and spatial distribution of the global population. The con-
tinuing urbanization and overall growth of the world’s population is projected to add 2.5
billion people to the urban population by 2050, with nearly 90 per cent of the increase
concentrated in Asia and Africa. At the same time, the proportion of the world’s
population living in urban areas is expected to increase, reaching 66 per cent by 2050.
There is great diversity in the characteristics of the world’s urban environs: close to half
of urban dwellers reside in relatively small settlements of less than 500,000 inhabitants, while
nearly one in eight live in the 28 mega-cities of 10 million inhabitants or more. The number of
mega-cities has nearly tripled since 1990; and by 2030, 41 urban agglomerations are projected
to house at least 10 million inhabitants each. Whereas several decades ago most of the world’s
largest urban agglomerations were found in the more developed regions, today’s large cities
are concentrated in the global South, and the fastest-growing agglomerations are medium-
sized cities and cities with 500,000 to 1 million inhabitants located in Asia and Africa.
Figure 1.
Percentage of population residing in urban areas in 2014, selected countries or areas
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Trinidad and Tobago
Burundi
Papua New Guinea
Uganda
Malawi
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Niger
Saint Lucia
South Sudan
Ethiopia
Samoa
Cambodia
Swaziland
Solomon Islands
Eritrea
Chad
Micronesia (Fed. States of)
Tonga
Antigua and Barbuda
Kenya
Vanuatu
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Lesotho
Rwanda
Comoros
Guyana
Burkina Faso
United Republic of Tanzania
Channel Islands
Barbados
Mozambique
Timor-Leste
India
Zimbabwe
Viet Nam
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Sudan
Yemen
Madagascar
Grenada
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Guinea
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Bhutan
Pakistan
Somalia
Mali
Togo
Sierra Leone
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Equatorial Guinea
Central African Republic
Mauritius
Zambia
Aruba
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Egypt
Angola
Senegal
Benin
Belize
Kiribati
Philippines
Maldives
Republic of Moldova
Namibia
Nigeria
Mayotte
Guinea-Bissau
Thailand
Liberia
Turkmenistan
Slovenia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Guatemala
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Fiji
Ghana
Georgia
Côte d'Ivoire
Seychelles
Slovakia
Cameroon
Honduras
Azerbaijan
Romania
China
Jamaica
Serbia
French Polynesia
Albania
TFYR Macedonia
Botswana
Syrian Arab Republic
Haiti
Nicaragua
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Carribean Northern America Oceania
90
The process of urbanization historically has been associated with other important
economic
80
and social transformations, which have brought greater geographic mobility,
lower fertility, longer life expectancy and population ageing. Cities are important drivers
of70development and poverty reduction in both urban and rural areas, as they concentrate
much of the national economic activity, government, commerce and transportation, and
60
provide crucial links with rural areas, between cities, and across international borders.
Urban
50 living is often associated with higher levels of literacy and education, better health,
greater access to social services, and enhanced opportunities for cultural and political
participation.
40
30
Nevertheless, rapid and unplanned urban growth threatens sustainable development
when the necessary infrastructure is not developed or when policies are not implemented
to20ensure that the benefits of city life are equitably shared. Today, despite the comparative
advantage of cities, urban areas are more unequal than rural areas and hundreds of mil-
10
lions of the world’s urban poor live in sub-standard conditions. In some cities, unplanned
or 0inadequately managed urban expansion leads to rapid sprawl, pollution, and environ-
mental degradation, together with unsustainable production and consumption patterns.
Trinidad and Tobago
Burundi
Papua New Guinea
Uganda
Malawi
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Niger
Saint Lucia
South Sudan
Ethiopia
Samoa
Cambodia
Swaziland
Solomon Islands
Eritrea
Chad
Micronesia (Fed. States of)
Tonga
Antigua and Barbuda
Kenya
Vanuatu
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Lesotho
Rwanda
Comoros
Guyana
Burkina Faso
United Republic of Tanzania
Channel Islands
Barbados
Mozambique
Timor-Leste
India
Zimbabwe
Viet Nam
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Sudan
Yemen
Madagascar
Grenada
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Guinea
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Bhutan
Pakistan
Somalia
Mali
Togo
Sierra Leone
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Equatorial Guinea
Central African Republic
Mauritius
Zambia
Aruba
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Egypt
Angola
Senegal
Benin
Belize
Kiribati
Philippines
Maldives
Republic of Moldova
Namibia
Nigeria
Mayotte
Guinea-Bissau
Thailand
Liberia
Turkmenistan
Slovenia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Guatemala
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Fiji
Ghana
Georgia
Côte d'Ivoire
Seychelles
Slovakia
Cameroon
Honduras
Azerbaijan
Romania
China
Jamaica
Serbia
French Polynesia
Albania
TFYR Macedonia
Botswana
Syrian Arab Republic
Haiti
Nicaragua
Urbanization is integrally connected to the three pillars of sustainable development:
economic development, social development and environmental protection. The outcome
of the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, “The future we
want” (http://www.un.org/en/sustainablefuture/), recognized both the plight of the urban
poor and the need for sustainable cities as matters of great urgency for the United Nations
development
Africa agenda. Building
Asia on thatEurope
momentum, theLatinthird United
America Nations
and the Conference
Carribean Northern America Oceania
on Human Settlements (Habitat III), planned for 2016, will bring together world leaders
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Croatia
Gambia
Mauritania
Paraguay
Morocco
Poland
Dem. People's Republic of Korea
Armenia
Portugal
Ireland
Ecuador
Montenegro
South Africa
Sao Tome and Principe
Cabo Verde
Congo
Austria
Suriname
El Salvador
Panama
Lithuania
Tunisia
Cyprus
Latvia
Estonia
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
Italy
Iraq
Ukraine
New Caledonia
Algeria
Hungary
Mongolia
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Turkey
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Russian Federation
Malaysia
State of Palestine
Germany
Costa Rica
Colombia
Belarus
Other non-specified areas
Brunei Darussalam
Cuba
Oman
Djibouti
Greece
Dominican Republic
Peru
Libya
Mexico
France
Spain
Norway
Western Sahara
United States of America
Canada
United Kingdom
Republic of Korea
Bahamas
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Finland
French Guiana
United Arab Emirates
Brazil
Sweden
New Zealand
Gabon
Denmark
Lebanon
Bahrain
Martinique
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
Australia
Chile
Curaçao
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Argentina
Israel
Japan
Puerto Rico
Iceland
Guam
Réunion
Uruguay
United States Virgin Islands
Malta
Belgium
Kuwait
Guadeloupe
Qatar
China, Macao SAR
Singapore
China, Hong Kong SAR
to review the global urban agenda and to forge a new model of urban development that
integrates all facets of sustainable development, to promote equity, welfare and shared
prosperity in an urbanizing world.
Accurate, consistent and timely data on global trends in urbanization and city
growth are critical for assessing current and future needs with respect to urban growth
and for setting policy priorities to promote inclusive and equitable urban and rural devel-
opment. In order to systematically track levels and trends in urbanization around the
world, the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
United Nations has issued, since 1988, biennial estimates and projections of the urban and
rural populations of all countries and of the populations of major urban agglomerations.
This report presents the highlights of the 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Pros-
pects, which contains the latest estimates of the urban and rural populations of 233 coun-
tries or areas from 1950 to 2014 and projections to 2050, as well as estimates of population
size from 1950 to 2014 and projections to 2030 for all urban agglomerations with 300,000
inhabitants or more in 2014.1 The annex tables in these Highlights provide data on the
estimated and projected urban and rural populations, the percentage of the population
that live in urban areas and the annual growth rate of the percentage urban for 233 coun-
tries or areas of the world. The tables also show the rank and annual growth rate of urban
agglomerations with 5 million inhabitants or more in 2014.
1
The full report, descriptions of the data, methodology, and complete data tables representing all coun-
tries and areas, regions, income groups, development groups, and periods can be accessed at http://esa.
un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm.
5
Trends in urbanization
Globally, more people live in urban areas than in rural areas. In 2007, for the first time in
history, the global urban population exceeded the global rural population, and the world
population has remained predominantly urban thereafter (figure 2). The planet has gone
through a process of rapid urbanization over the past six decades. In 1950, more than two-
thirds (70 per cent) of people worldwide lived in rural settlements and less than one-third
(30 per cent) in urban settlements. In 2014, 54 per cent of the world’s population is urban.
The urban population is expected to continue to grow, so that by 2050, the world will be one-
third rural (34 per cent) and two-thirds urban (66 per cent), roughly the reverse of the global
rural-urban population distribution of the mid-twentieth century (also see Annex Table I).
A majority of the
Figure 2. world’s population
Urban and rural population of the world, 1950–2050
lives in urban areas
7000
6000
5000
Population (millions)
4000
3000
2000
1000 Urban
0 Rural
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Levels of urbanization vary greatly across regions. In 2014, high levels of urbaniza-
tion, at or above 80 per cent, characterized Latin America and the Caribbean and North-
ern America. Europe, with 73 per cent of its population living in urban areas, is expected
to be over 80 per cent urban by 2050 (figure 3). Africa and Asia, in contrast, remain mostly
rural, with 40 per cent and 48 per cent of their respective populations living in urban
areas. Over the coming decades, the level of urbanization is expected to increase in all
regions (also referred to as major areas), with Africa and Asia urbanizing faster than the
rest. Nevertheless, these two regions, which are projected to reach 56 and 64 per cent
urban by mid-century, respectively, are still expected to be less urbanized than other
regions of the world.
8 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
90
80
79.5 81.5
70
70.8
60
50
40
30
20
Urban population 10
Rural population 0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
In 2014, sixteen countries still have low levels of urbanization, i.e. below 20 per cent.
The largest among them, with total populations of 10 million inhabitants or more, include
Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, South Sudan and Uganda in Africa and Nepal and Sri
Lanka in Asia (see Map 1). By 2050, all of these countries are expected to become signifi-
cantly more urbanized, with as much as twice their respective proportions urban in 2014.
In contrast, 59 countries are already more than 80 per cent urban. Among those with
populations of at least 10 million inhabitants, the most highly urbanized countries are
Belgium (98 per cent urban), Japan (93 per cent), Argentina (92 per cent) and the Nether-
lands (90 per cent). By 2050, 89 countries are expected to become more than 80 per cent
urban. When interpreting the differences in levels of urbanization across countries, it is
important to keep in mind the heterogeneity of the urban definition across countries.
Africa and Asia are urbanizing more rapidly than other regions of the world. The
rate of urbanization, measured as the average annual rate of change of the percentage
urban, is highest in Asia and Africa, where currently the proportion urban is increasing
by 1.5 and 1.1 per cent per annum, respectively. Regions that already have relatively high
levels of urbanization are urbanizing at a slower pace, at less than 0.4 per cent annually
(figure 4). In general, the pace of urbanization tends to slow down as a population becomes
more urbanized.
Trends in urbanization 9
Map 1.
Percentage urban and location of urban agglomerations with at least 500,000 inhabitants, 2014
Percentage urban
80 or over
60 to 80
40 to 60
20 to 40
Less than 20
Urban agglomerations
Megacities of 10 million or more
Large cities of 5 to 10 million
ed cities of 1 to 5 million
Cities of 500 000 to 1 million
Note: The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the
part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concern-
ing the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The pace
of urbanization has
Figure 4. varied over time
Average annual rate of change of the percentage urban by major areas, 1950–2050
and across major areas
3.0
Average annual rate of change (per cent)
2.5
2.0
1.5
Africa
1.0 Asia
Europe
0.5
Latin America and the Caribbean
0.0 Northern America
-0.5 Oceania
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
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25
30
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There has been considerable variation across regions in rates of urbanization since
1950. The rate of urbanization in Asia fluctuated widely, mainly as a result of a stagnation
of the urbanization process in China in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and its subsequent
upturn. Europe, Northern America and Oceania, on the other hand, each experienced a
period of stable urbanization, and overall their rate of urbanization has been slow over
the last two decades. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the rate of urbanization has
declined smoothly over the past six decades. Africa is currently urbanizing faster than
in the late 1990s and is expected to be the fastest urbanizing region from 2020 to 2050.
Urbanization in developing countries has proceeded faster than in developed countries,
but the correlation of the rate of urbanization with economic growth has been weaker
than in developed countries (United Nations, 2013b).
10 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
While the high-income countries of today have been highly urbanized for several dec-
ades, upper-middle-income countries have experienced the fastest pace of urbanization since
1950. In 1950, a majority (57 per cent) of the population in high-income countries already
lived in urban areas (figure 5). Their level of urbanization is expected to rise further, from
80 per cent today to 86 per cent in 2050. By contrast, in the upper-middle-income countries
of today, only 20 per cent of the population lived in urban areas in 1950, but these countries
urbanized rapidly and are now 63 per cent urban. This percentage is expected to rise to 79
per cent urban by 2050. Countries such as Brazil, China, Iran and Mexico are in this group,
and have experienced both rapid urbanization and rapid growth of gross national income.
Upper-middle-income
countries have experi-
enced the fastest pace Figure 5.
of urbanization Proportion urban by income groups, 1950–2050
80
Lower-middle-income countries 70
Low income countries 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Note: The country classification
50
55
60
65
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75
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90
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by income level is based on
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2012 GNI per capita from
the World Bank and it is kept
unchanged throughout the In the lower-middle- and low-income countries, the pace of urbanization has been
estimates and projections. slower until now. Nevertheless, this group of countries is expected to experience faster
urbanization than others in the coming decades. In 2014, the proportion of the population
living in urban areas was 39 percent in lower-middle-income countries and 30 per cent in
low-income countries. By 2050, these countries are expected to reach, on average, 57 and
48 per cent urban, respectively.
The rural population of the world has grown slowly since 1950 and is expected
to reach its peak in a few years. Approximately 3.4 billion people currently live in rural
areas around the world. That number is expected to remain relatively constant in the
coming years. However, sometime after 2020, the world’s rural population will start
to decline and is expected to reach 3.2 billion in 2050. This global trend is driven
mostly by the dynamics of rural population growth in Africa and Asia, which is home
today to nearly 90 per cent of the world’s rural population (figure 6a). The rural popula-
tion of the world resides in a relatively small number of countries. India has the largest
rural population (857 million), followed by China (635 million). Together, these two
countries account for 45 per cent of the world’s rural population. Bangladesh, Indo-
nesia and Pakistan follow, each with over 100 million rural inhabitants. In Africa, the
largest rural populations are located in Nigeria (95 million) and Ethiopia (78 million).
Between 2014 and 2050, the rural population is expected to increase in about one third
of the countries of the world. The l argest i ncreases w ill b e r egistered i n N igeria (50
million), Ethiopia and Uganda (39 and 38 million). The remaining two thirds of coun-
tries are expected to have stable or declining rural populations. The l argest d eclines
are expected in China, with a decline of 300 million, equivalent to more than one half
of their rural population in 2014, and in India, where the number of rural residents is
expected to decline by 52 million.
Trends in urbanization 11
Figure 6a.
A vast majority of the world’s rural inhabitants live in Asia, but projected growth is fastest
in Africa
100
90
Distribution of rural population (per cent)
80
70
60 Africa
50 Asia
40 Europe
30 Latin America and the Caribbean
20
Northern America
10
Oceania
0
50
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Figure 6b.
Asia will continue to host nearly one half of the world’s urban population
100
Distribution of urban population (per cent)
90
80
70
60 Africa
50 Asia
40 Europe
30
Latin America and the Caribbean
20
Northern America
10
Oceania
0
50
55
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The urban population of the world is expected to increase by more than two thirds
by 2050, with nearly 90 per cent of the increase to take place in the urban areas of Africa
and Asia. The world’s urban population is now close to 3.9 billion and is expected to reach
6.3 billion in 2050. Asia, despite its lower level of urbanization, is today home to 53 per
cent of the urban population in the world. Europe has the second highest share of the
world’s urban population, at 14 per cent, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean
with 13 per cent (figure 6b). Over the next four decades, Africa and Asia will experience
a marked increase in their urban populations. By mid-century, the urban population of
Africa is likely to triple and that of Asia to increase by 61 per cent. As a consequence, close
to 90 per cent of the increase in the world’s urban population will take place in the urban
areas of Africa and Asia. In 2050, most of the urban population of the world will be con-
centrated in Asia (52 per cent) and Africa (21 per cent).
12 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
Just a few countries are home to half of the world’s urban population. China has
the largest urban population (758 million), followed by India (410 million). These two
countries account for 30 per cent of the world’s urban population and, with another five
countries, the United States of America (263 million), Brazil (173 million), Indonesia (134
million), Japan (118 million) and the Russian Federation (105 million), account for more
than half of the world’s urban population.
Future increases in the world’s urban population are also expected to be highly con-
centrated in just a few countries (figure 7). Taken together, China, India and Nigeria are
projected to account for 37 per cent of the increase of nearly 2.5 billion people in the urban
population by 2050. Between 2014 and 2050, the urban areas are expected to grow by 404
million people in India, 292 million in China and 212 million in Nigeria. Seven other
countries, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania,
Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan, and the United States of America, are projected to
contribute more than 50 million each to the urban increment and will constitute together
another 20 per cent of the total increase in urban population. In a few countries, the urban
China and India will population will decrease, despite projected increases in the level of urbanization. The larg-
contribute more than est declines between 2014 and 2050 are projected for Japan, with a decline of 12 million
one third of the global urban dwellers and for the Russian Federation, expected to decline by 7 million.
urban population
increase between 2014 Figure 7.
Contribution to the increase in urban population by country, 2014 to 2050
and 2050
2500 nearly 2.5 billion
urban population increase
by 2050
Kenya
1500 Iraq
Egypt
Mexico
50%
Democratic Republic of the Congo Brazil
Pakistan Philippines
United States of America
1000 Ethiopia
Indonesia
United Republic of Tanzania
Nigeria Bangladesh
China
500
India
Note: The countries shown are projected to contribute 25 million or more to the global urban increment
between 2014 and 2050. The category “Other countries” includes countries with urban increments
of less than 25 million each.
13
Cities
Megacities are notable for their size and concentration of economic activity, but are home
to only about one in eight of the world’s urban dwellers. In 1990 there were 10 cities with
more than 10 million inhabitants (figure 8), and these so-called “megacities” were home to
153 million people, representing less than 7 per cent of the global urban population. Today,
the number of megacities has nearly tripled to 28, the population they contain has grown
to 453 million, and these agglomerations now account for 12 per cent of the world’s urban
dwellers. Tokyo is the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 38 million inhabitants,
followed by Delhi with 25 million, Shanghai with 23 million, and Mexico City, Mumbai
and São Paulo, each with around 21 million inhabitants. By 2020, Tokyo’s population is
projected to begin to decline, although it will remain the world’s largest agglomeration in
2030 with 37 million inhabitants, followed closely by Delhi, whose population is projected
to rise swiftly to 36 million (figure 9). While Osaka (Kinki Major Metropolitan Area)
and New York-Newark were the world’s second and third largest urban agglomerations in
1990, by 2030 they are projected to fall in rank to the 13th and 14th positions, respectively
(Annex Table II).
Figure 8.
Global urban population growth is propelled by the growth of cities of all sizes
6000
5000
41 cities
Population (millions)
4000 63 cities
28 cities
43 cities 558 cities
3000
417 cities Megacities of 10 million or more
10 cities 731 cities
21 cities 525 cities Large cities of 5 to 10 million
2000
239 cities
294 cities Medium-sized cities of 1 to 5 million
1000 Cities of 500 000 to 1 million
Urban areas smaller than 500 000
0 1990 2014 2030
Large cities with 5 to 10 million inhabitants account for a small, but growing pro-
portion of the global urban population. In 2014, just over 300 million people live in the
43 “large” cities with 5 to 10 million inhabitants, which include such cities as Santiago
(Chile), Madrid (Spain), and Singapore. Large cities currently account for 8 per cent of the
urban population of the world. The number of such cities is expected to grow to 63 by 2030
and house more than 400 million people, representing close to 9 per cent of the global
urban population. The proportion of the urban population concentrated in megacities and
cities with 5 to 10 million inhabitants in 2014 varies widely across major areas, from 0 per
cent in Oceania to 25 per cent in Northern America (figure 10).
14 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
Figure 9.
The ten largest urban agglomerations in 2014 show varied growth patterns
both in the recent past and in future projections
40000
Al-Qahirah (Cairo)
35000
New York-Newark
Population (thousands)
Beijing 30000
Delhi 5000
Tokyo 0
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Figure 10.
Population distribution by city size varies across major areas in 2014
100
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Share of urban population (per cent)
80
70
60
50
Megacities of 10 million or more
40
Large cities of 5 to 10 million
30
Medium-sized cities of 1 to 5 million
20
Cities of 500 000 to 1 million
10
Urban areas smaller than 500 000
0
Europe Africa Asia Latin America Oceania Northern America
and the Caribbean
Most megacities and large cities are located in the global South. China alone has
six megacities and ten cities with populations between 5 and 10 million in 2014, and it will
add one more megacity and six more large cities by 2030. Four of India’s cities with 5 to
10 million inhabitants presently are projected to become megacities in the coming years
(Ahmadabad, Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad), for a total of seven megacities pro-
jected in the country by 2030. Outside of China and India, Asia has seven other megacities
and eleven other large cities in 2014. Cairo, Kinshasa and Lagos are the only megacities in
Africa in 2014, but three more are expected to emerge by 2030, as Dar es Salaam (Tanza-
nia), Johannesburg (South Africa), and Luanda (Angola) are each projected to surpass the
10 million mark. The number of large cities with populations between 5 and 10 million in
Africa is also expected to increase, from three in 2014 to twelve in 2030. In Latin America,
Bogotá (Colombia) and Lima (Peru) are projected to grow beyond the 10 million mark by
2030, joining the four current megacities of the region: Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Rio de
Cities 15
Janeiro, and São Paulo. Notably, there are varying degrees of uncertainty in the projec-
tions of cities, with greater uncertainty for cities like Kinshasa or Luanda where census
data have not been collected or reported in decades.
One in five urban dwellers worldwide lives in a medium-sized city with 1 million
to 5 million inhabitants. While considered medium-sized by global standards, these cit-
ies are, in fact, the largest cities in 79 countries or areas. Examples include Sydney (Aus-
tralia), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), and Montevideo (Uruguay). The global population living
in medium-sized cities nearly doubled between 1990 and 2014, and is expected to increase
by another 36 per cent between 2014 and 2030, growing from 827 million to 1.1 billion.
The number of people living in cities of between 500,000 and 1 million inhabitants is
expected to grow at a similar pace, increasing from 363 million in 2014 to 509 million in
2030, but continuing to hold only around 10 per cent of the global urban population.
In 2014 close to one half of the world’s urban population lives in settlements with
fewer than 500,000 inhabitants. While this proportion is projected to shrink over time,
by 2030 these small cities and towns will still be home to around 45 per cent of urban
dwellers. The proportion of the urban population in small cities varies considerably across
regions. Close to two thirds of Europe’s urban dwellers reside in small urban places as do
more than half of Africa’s urban dwellers. In contrast, just one third of urban residents in
Northern America live in settlements with fewer than 500,000 people. Regional differ-
ences also reflect differences in settlement patterns, as well as variations in the definition
of urban areas across countries and regions.
The fastest growing urban agglomerations are medium-sized cities and cities with
less than 1 million inhabitants located in Asia and Africa. Between 2000 and 2014 the
world’s cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants grew at an average annual rate of 2.4 per
cent. However, 43 of these cities grew more than twice as fast, with average growth rates
in excess of 6 per cent per year (figure 11). Of these, 4 are located in Africa, 38 in Asia (18
in China alone), and 1 in Northern America. By way of comparison, Suzhou, in China’s
Jiangsu Province, is the only city with more than 5 million inhabitants to have experi-
enced such rapid growth. In general, most of the world’s fastest growing urban agglom-
erations are smaller cities: agglomerations with 500,000 to 1 million inhabitants in 2014
account for 26 of the 43 fastest-growing cities, while another 16 are medium-sized cities
with between 1 million and 5 million inhabitants.
Some cities have experienced population decline since 2000, most of which are
located in low-fertility countries of Asia and Europe with stagnating or declining popu-
lations. A few cities in Japan and the Republic of Korea (for example, Nagasaki and Busan)
have experienced population decline between 2000 and 2014. Several cities in the Russian
Federation and Ukraine have lost population since 2000 as well. In addition, several capital
cities around the world have seen their populations decline between 2000 and 2014, includ-
ing Bratislava (Slovakia), Riga (Latvia), Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Yerevan
(Armenia). In addition to low fertility, emigration has also contributed to smaller popula-
tion sizes in some of these cities.
Figure 11.
The world’s fastest growing cities are in Africa and Asia
12
Megacities of 10 million or more
Large cities of 5 to 10 million
Medium−sized cities of 1 to 5 million
Cities of 500 000 to 1 million
10
Average annual city growth rate (per cent), 2000−2014
8
6
4
2
0
−2
Major area
17
Policy implications
2
United Nations (2008) World Population Monitoring, focusing on population distribution, urbanization,
internal migration and development. Report of the Secretary-General to the forty-first session of the
Commission on Population and Development, E/CN.9/2008/3
18 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
Accurate, consistent and timely data on global trends in urbanization and city
growth are critical for assessing current and future needs with respect to urban growth
and for setting policy priorities to promote inclusive and equitable urban and rural devel-
opment. In order to systematically track levels and trends in urbanization around the
world and to monitor progress in sustainable development goals in urban and rural areas,
Governments, with the support of international cooperation, should continue their efforts
to produce more extensive and better quality data on the size, distribution and character-
istics of the population.
Successful sustainable urbanization requires competent, responsive and account-
able governments charged with the management of cities and urban expansion, as well
appropriate use of information and communication technologies (ICTs) for more efficient
service delivery. There is a need for building institutional capacities and applying inte-
grated approaches so as to attain urban sustainability.
19
References
United Nations (1974). Methods for the Projection of Urban and Rural Population.
Population Studies, No. 55 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.74.XIII.3).
__________ (1980). Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth. Population
Studies No. 68 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.79.XIII.9).
__________ (2013a). World Population Prospects: The Revision 2012. Volume 1,
Comprehensive Tables (United Nations publications ST/ESA/SER.A/336).
__________ (2013b). World Economic and Social Survey: Sustainable Development
Challenges (E/2013/50/Rev. 1 ST/ESA/344).
UN-Habitat (2012) State of the World’s Cities, 2012/2013. Nairobi, Kenya. ISBN: 978-
92-1-132494-5
Annex
Table I
Urban and rural population, proportion urban and average annual rate of change of the proportion urban
Notes
a More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New 6 As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region
Zealand and Japan. (SAR) of China.
b Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), 7 The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central
Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Asia.
c The least developed countries are 49 countries, 34 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in 8 Including Sabah and Sarawak.
Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean. 9 Including Nagorno-Karabakh.
10 Including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
d Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions exclud-
ing the least developed countries. 11 Including East Jerusalem.
12 Including Transnistria.
e The country classification by income level is based on 2012 GNI per capita
from the World Bank. 13 Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.
14 Including Åland Islands.
f Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa.
15 Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.
1 Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon.
16 Refers to the Vatican City State.
2 Including Zanzibar. 17 Including Kosovo.
3 Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha. 18 Including Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla.
4 For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and 19 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China. 20 Including Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin (French part).
5 As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) 21 Including Christmas Island, Cocos Keeling Islands, and Norfolk Island.
of China. 22 Including Pitcairn.
26 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision
Table II
Population size and ranking of urban agglomerations with more than 5 million inhabitants as of 1 July 2014
Average
annual rate
of change
Population (thousands) Rank (per cent)
Urban Agglomeration Country or area 1990 2014 2030 1990 2014 2030 2010–2015
Tokyo Japan 32 530 37 833 37 190 1 1 1 0.6
Delhi India 9 726 24 953 36 060 12 2 2 3.2
Shanghai China 7 823 22 991 30 751 20 3 3 3.4
Ciudad de México (Mexico City) Mexico 15 642 20 843 23 865 4 4 10 0.8
São Paulo Brazil 14 776 20 831 23 444 5 5 11 1.4
Mumbai (Bombay) India 12 436 20 741 27 797 6 6 4 1.6
Kinki M.M.A. (Osaka) Japan 18 389 20 123 19 976 2 7 13 0.8
Beijing China 6 788 19 520 27 706 23 8 5 4.6
New York-Newark United States of America 16 086 18 591 19 885 3 9 14 0.2
Al-Qahirah (Cairo) Egypt 9 892 18 419 24 502 11 10 8 2.1
Dhaka Bangladesh 6 621 16 982 27 374 24 11 6 3.6
Karachi Pakistan 7 147 16 126 24 838 22 12 7 3.3
Buenos Aires Argentina 10 513 15 024 16 956 10 13 18 1.3
Kolkata (Calcutta) India 10 890 14 766 19 092 7 14 15 0.8
Istanbul Turkey 6 552 13 954 16 694 25 15 20 2.2
Chongqing China 4 011 12 916 17 380 43 16 17 3.4
Rio de Janeiro Brazil 9 697 12 825 14 174 13 17 23 0.8
Manila Philippines 7 973 12 764 16 756 19 18 19 1.7
Lagos Nigeria 4 764 12 614 24 239 33 19 9 3.9
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana United States of America 10 883 12 308 13 257 8 20 26 0.2
Moskva (Moscow) Russian Federation 8 987 12 063 12 200 15 21 31 1.2
Guangzhou, Guangdong China 3 072 11 843 17 574 63 22 16 5.2
Kinshasa Democratic Republic 3 683 11 116 19 996 50 23 12 4.2
of the Congo
Tianjin China 4 558 10 860 14 655 37 24 22 3.4
Paris France 9 330 10 764 11 803 14 25 33 0.7
Shenzhen China 875 10 680 12 673 308 26 29 1.0
London United Kingdom 8 054 10 189 11 467 18 27 36 1.2
Jakarta Indonesia 8 175 10 176 13 812 17 28 25 1.4
Seoul Republic of Korea 10 518 9 775 9 960 9 29 43 -0.0
Lima Peru 5 837 9 722 12 221 28 30 30 2.0
Bangalore India 4 036 9 718 14 762 42 31 21 4.0
Chennai (Madras) India 5 338 9 620 13 921 30 32 24 3.0
Bogotá Colombia 4 740 9 558 11 915 34 33 32 2.7
Chukyo M.M.A. (Nagoya) Japan 8 407 9 373 9 304 16 34 49 0.5
Johannesburg South Africa 3 709 9 176 11 573 48 35 34 3.2
Krung Thep (Bangkok) Thailand 5 888 9 098 11 528 27 36 35 2.4
Chicago United States of America 7 374 8 739 9 493 21 37 46 0.3
Hyderabad India 4 193 8 670 12 774 39 38 28 3.3
Lahore Pakistan 3 970 8 500 13 033 44 39 27 3.1
Tehran Iran (Islamic Republic of) 6 365 8 353 9 990 26 40 42 0.9
Wuhan China 3 417 7 838 9 442 57 41 47 1.0
Dongguan China 553 7 410 8 701 516 42 51 0.9
Chengdu China 2 955 7 289 10 104 71 43 41 3.8
Hong Kong China, Hong Kong SAR 5 766 7 260 7 885 29 44 61 0.7
Nanjing, Jiangsu China 2 893 7 127 9 754 74 45 44 3.6
Ahmadabad India 3 255 7 116 10 527 59 46 38 3.4
Thành Pho Ho Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City) Viet Nam 3 038 7 100 10 200 67 47 40 3.3
Foshan China 1 008 6 989 8 353 267 48 53 1.1
Kuala Lumpur Malaysia 2 098 6 629 9 423 109 49 48 3.3
Annex 27
Average
annual rate
of change
Population (thousands) Rank (per cent)
Urban Agglomeration Country or area 1990 2014 2030 1990 2014 2030 2010–2015
Baghdad Iraq 4 092 6 483 9 710 41 50 45 2.4
Santiago Chile 4 616 6 472 7 122 36 51 64 0.7
Ar-Riyadh (Riyadh) Saudi Arabia 2 325 6 195 7 940 92 52 58 4.0
Shenyang China 3 651 6 194 7 911 51 53 59 2.1
Madrid Spain 4 414 6 133 6 707 38 54 70 1.4
Hangzhou China 1 476 6 121 8 822 163 55 50 4.6
Toronto Canada 3 807 5 901 6 957 46 56 65 1.7
Xi’an, Shaanxi China 2 157 5 867 7 904 102 57 60 3.2
Miami United States of America 3 969 5 771 6 554 45 58 74 1.1
Belo Horizonte Brazil 3 548 5 667 6 439 53 59 75 1.1
Dallas-Fort Worth United States of America 3 219 5 603 6 683 60 60 71 2.0
Pune (Poona) India 2 430 5 574 8 091 86 61 57 2.9
Philadelphia United States of America 4 725 5 571 6 158 35 62 78 0.5
Kitakyushu-Fukuoka M.M.A. Japan 5 269 5 528 5 355 31 63 95 -0.2
Singapore Singapore 3 016 5 517 6 578 69 64 73 2.0
Houston United States of America 2 922 5 516 6 729 72 65 68 2.5
Surat India 1 468 5 398 8 616 166 66 52 4.8
Haerbin China 2 392 5 351 6 860 87 67 67 2.2
Luanda Angola 1 390 5 288 10 429 175 68 39 4.0
Barcelona Spain 4 101 5 207 5 685 40 69 89 1.3
Suzhou, Jiangsu China 1 067 5 156 8 098 249 70 56 6.3
Atlanta United States of America 2 184 5 032 6 140 101 71 79 2.5
Accurate, consistent and timely data on global trends in urbanization and
city growth are critical for assessing current and future needs with respect
to urban growth and for setting policy priorities to promote inclusive and
equitable urban and rural development. This report presents the highlights of
the 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, which contains the latest
estimates of the urban and rural populations of 233 countries or areas from
1950 to 2014 and projections to 2050, as well as estimates of population size
from 1950 to 2014 and projections to 2030 for all urban agglomerations with
300,000 inhabitants or more in 2014. ISBN 978-92-1-123195-3
14-04178