Brexit Cusp

Brexit – The Cusp of History
When we read history, more often than not we focus on the events…the great happenings. We
contemplate and wonder at the surrounding circumstance, and question how these things got
started, what was the impetus to the historic event? We know the players, we know the dates and
the number of people involved, but we rarely hear of the motivations, or at least what the primary
cause of said motivation might be. Not so with Brexit.
With Brexit we have a perhaps unique perspective on what lead the UK to part ways with the EU. All
the players, all the reasons. Make no mistake, Brexit is one of the most historically significant events
of recent times. It was the precurser to Trump, it heralded the populist ovement across Europe, and
it was the first moment that world realized that the ideology of globalism was not a fixed fate,
inescapable and unstoppable.
Today I want to walk you through the timeline of events from Britain joining what was billed as little
more than a simple trade arrangement, through to the EU becoming a monolithic government that
commanded nations in what laws they must implement, what border controls , if any, they were
permitted, and how Britain, broke free of an organization that would be a country.
It took three Prime Ministers, two General Elections, and three and a half years of arguments from
either side of this political divide since the public voted to leave…it was a campaign that was being
fought even after the votes were counted. This may seem familiar to our American listeners.
President Trump won in 2016, and yet there are swathes of the political and media class who just do
not accept the reality….This is Brexit country.
A European Clash
In 1973, Britain joined the European Communities (E.C), which was a fairly simple trade organization
made up of just eight other countries including France and Germany. Then, in 1975, the E.C.
developed to become what is today known as the Common Market or ECC. As membership of the
ECC would require certain laws and regulations to be made in the E.U. and not in Westminster, in
order to have regulatory alignment political capital, a referendum was held to see if the people of
Britain wished to continue. The result was an overwhelming yes.
However, as the years went on, more and more changes to the structure of this trading organization
took place that required a handing over of national sovereignty. The trading block grew adding new
European countries. Treaties were signed by the governments of the day each time they arose that
handed power to Brussels and away from the British parliament. Many thought this was a price
worth paying to be part of a large trading block.
But not everyone.
Political Pressure
A Euro-Skeptic movement began around the same time that the E.U was pressuring Britain to adopt
the Euro as its currency and to do away with the Pound Sterling. They argued that a trade deal was
not worth handing over law-making abilities to what was fast becoming a foreign government and
that Britain should have control over its own laws, currency and immigration policy.
It took over 20 years of campaigning, but electoral pressure from the United Kingdom Independence
Party, then headed by Nigel Farage, forced PM David Cameron to offer an In/Out referendum on
continued membership of the EU if he won the 2015 General Election with an outright majority.
Cameron, who was then leading a minority government in coalition with the Liberal Democrat Party,
believed there was little chance he would gain an outright majority, but that the promise of a
referendum would at least put himself and his Conservative Party back in power. The nation was
stunned by the result
A Brexit Referendum
Far from just winning the election, because of Cameron’s promise on the referendum, he was
catapulted back to Westminster with a large majority and was beholden to the voters to deliver on
his promise.
All leaders of the main political parties campaigned for Britain to remain part of the European Union.
Nigel Farage, UKIP, and several grassroots movements campaigned to leave. On June 23 rd, 2016, the
public went to the ballot boxes. The vast majority of polling predicted that the Remain side would
win, and it wasn’t until the results started coming in that David Cameron realized he had made a
huge miscalculation.
The final result was 52% to Leave and 48% to Remain. Of the 650 voting constituencies in the U.K.,
over 400 voted to part ways with the E.U. It was the largest single vote for anything ever in the
history of the country.
Brexit Delayed
Because PM Cameron had campaigned to Remain in the E.U., he felt he should not be the person
responsible for taking Britain out. A leadership election was held in the Conservative Party and
Theresa May became the new prime minister. However, May did not seem to have the support, or
perhaps the will, to complete Brexit.
The country remained divided between those who won the referendum and those who wanted to
ignore the vote and carry on as before. PM May was unable to pass any legislation in Parliament,
and without support, could not govern; another leadership election was called. Boris Johnson won
this race and challenged the opposition Labour Party to agree to a General Election.
Labour, under leader Jeremey Corbyn was initially hesitant to agree to an election as the party’s
stated position was to try and remain in the E.U. After much back and forth, and election was agreed
to and Boris Johnson, running on a platform of “Get Brexit Done” won a resounding landslide.
What Comes Next?

Although Britain will officially leave on January 31 st, this does not mean that the relationship is
entirely over. During the next year the British parliament will negotiate with E.U. leaders to
determine if some kind of trade arrangement can be reached. So far, the E.U. is asking for what’s
known as a “level playing field,” which in reality means political and legal alignment on rules and
regulations. Boris Johnson has ruled this out suggesting that it is this alignment that began Brexit in
the first place.
If, at the end of 2020 no trade arrangement is reached, Britain will revert to trading on World Trade
Organization terms, no different to any other country outside of the E.U. Whether PM Johnson wins
another election will depend on how well he manages these negotiations.
Perhaps we can, after looking at the story of Brexit, understand why we so seldom have a complete
overview of historical events. Why we cant hand over a coplet package wrapped in a nice little bow
and say”look, here’s this segment of history and all you need to know”…perhaps it’s because these
events that shape the future of nations, are never truly over. Brexit has happened, Donald rump
won, but the story goes on…what happens today has effect for the next 20 years, 200 years, or
perhaps even more. History is fluid because the end has yet to come. It’s a story that each of us is
involved in, we each have our footnotes, for some, even chapters. Welcome to history, I hope you
enjoy writing it.

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Brexit – The Cusp of History

But not everyone.

What Comes Next?

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