Brexit by Sooraj
Brexit by Sooraj
Brexit by Sooraj
Great Britain is an island lying off the western coast of Europe, comprising the main territory
of the United Kingdom.
Great Britain is the official name given to the two kingdoms of England and Scotland, and the
principality of Wales.
Great Britain is very often, but incorrectly, used as a synonym for the sovereign state properly
known as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland or the UK for short.
If you look at the full name of the UK, you will see that the UK includes "Great Britain AND
Northern Ireland".
Great Britain is a political term which describes the combination of England, Scotland, and
Wales, the three nations which together include all the land on the island. It is also a
geographical term referring to the island on which the greater parts of England, Wales and
Scotland are situated.
The European Union is a unique economic and political union between 28 European
countries that together cover much of the continent.
The EU was created in the aftermath of the Second World War. The first steps were to foster
economic cooperation: the idea being that countries that trade with one another become
economically interdependent and so more likely to avoid conflict.
The result was the European Economic Community (EEC), created in 1958, and initially
increasing economic cooperation between six countries: Belgium, Germany, France, Italy,
Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Since then, a huge single market has been created and
continues to develop towards its full potential.
What is BREXIT?
It is a word that has become used as a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU -
merging the words Britain and exit to get Brexit, in a same way as a possible Greek exit from
the euro was dubbed Grexit in the past.
Put simply it is the merging of Britain and exit following the referendum vote to leave the
EU.
The term has been widely used in the media ever since the idea of a referendum on the issue
was put forward by those in power.
More than 30 million people voted in the referendum with a turnout of 71.8 per cent. Leave
won by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
People now talk about soft and hard Brexit in reference to how close the UK will be to
the EU post separation.
The road to triggering Article 50 which will see Britain officially start the process of
leaving the EU has been paved with complications for the PM, including a Supreme Court
case ruling MPs needed to vote on Brexit negotiations.
It's pretty short - just five paragraphs - which spell out that any EU member state may
decide to quit the EU, that it must notify the European Council and negotiate its withdrawal
with the EU, that there are two years to reach an agreement - unless everyone agrees to
extend it - and that the exiting state cannot take part in EU internal discussions about its
departure.
For the UK to leave the EU it had to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives the
two sides two years to agree the terms of the split. Theresa May triggered this process on 29
March, meaning the UK is scheduled to leave on Friday, 29 March 2019. It can be extended
if all 28 EU members agree.
The UK Independence Party, which received nearly four million votes - 13% of those cast -
in May's general election, has campaigned for many years for Britain's exit from the EU.
They were joined in their call during the referendum campaign by about half the
Conservative Party's MPs, including Boris Johnson and five members of the then Cabinet. A
handful of Labour MPs and Northern Ireland party the DUP were also in favour of leaving.
Reasons:
They said Britain was being held back by the EU, which they said imposed too many rules on
business and charged billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return. They
also cited sovereignty and democracy, and they wanted Britain to take back full control of its
borders and reduce the number of people coming here to live and/or work.
One of the main principles of EU membership is "free movement", which means you don't
need to get a visa to go and live in another EU country. The Leave campaign also objected to
the idea of "ever closer union" between EU member states and what they see as moves
towards the creation of a "United States of Europe".
Then Prime Minister David Cameron was the leading voice in the Remain campaign, after
reaching an agreement with other European Union leaders that would have changed the terms
of Britain's membership had the country voted to stay in.
He said the deal would give Britain "special" status and help sort out some of the things
British people said they didn't like about the EU, like high levels of immigration - but critics
said the deal would make little difference.
Sixteen members of Mr Cameron's Cabinet, including the woman who would replace him as
PM, Theresa May, also backed staying in. The Conservative Party was split on the issue and
officially remained neutral in the campaign. The Labour Party, Scottish National Party, Plaid
Cymru, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats were all in favour of staying in.
US president Barack Obama also wanted Britain to remain in the EU, as did other EU nations
such as France and Germany.
Reasons:
Those campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU said it got a big boost from membership - it
makes selling things to other EU countries easier and, they argued, the flow of immigrants,
most of whom are young and keen to work, fuels economic growth and helps pay for public
services.
They also said Britain's status in the world would be damaged by leaving and that we are
more secure as part of the 28 nation club, rather than going it alone.
Some definitions of 'plebiscite' suggest that it is a type of vote to change the constitution or
government of a country. However, some other countries define it differently. For example,
Australia defines 'referendum' as a vote to change the constitution, and 'plebiscite' as a vote
that does not affect the constitution. In Ireland, the vote to adopt its constitution was called a
"plebiscite", but a subsequent vote to amend the constitution is called a 'referendum', and so
is a poll of the electorate on a non-constitutional bill.
History:
In 1975, the United Kingdom held its first ever national referendum on whether the UK
should remain in the European Communities. The opposition Labour Party, led by Harold
Wilson, contested the October 1974 general election with a commitment to renegotiate
Britain's terms of membership of the EEC and then hold a referendum on whether to remain
in the EEC on the new terms.
All of the major political parties and mainstream press supported continuing membership of
the EC. However, there were significant divides within the ruling Labour party, with a 1974
one-day party conference voting 2:1 in favour of withdrawal and seven of 23 cabinet
ministers opposed to EC membership,[20]with Harold Wilson suspending the constitutional
convention of Cabinet collective responsibility to allow those ministers to publicly campaign
against the government.
On 5 June 1975, the electorate were asked to vote yes or no on the question: "Do you think
the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?" Every administrative
county and region in the UK returned majority "Yes" votes, apart from the Shetland
Islands and the Outer Hebrides. With a turnout of just under 65%, the outcome of the vote
was 67.2% in favour of staying in, and the United Kingdom remained a member of the EC.
On 5 June 1975, the electorate were asked to vote yes or no on the question: "Do you think
the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?" Every administrative
county and region in the UK returned majority "Yes" votes, apart from the Shetland
Islands and the Outer Hebrides. With a turnout of just under 65%, the outcome of the vote
was 67.2% in favour of staying in, and the United Kingdom remained a member of the EC.
What happened just after the referendum?
After the result was declared, Cameron announced that he would resign by October. He stood
down on 13 July 2016, with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister after a leadership
contest. George Osborne was replaced as Chancellor of the Exchequer by Philip Hammond,
former Mayor of London Boris Johnson was appointed Secretary of State for Foreign and
Commonwealth Affairs, and David Davis became Secretary of State for Exiting the European
Union. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lost a vote of confidence among his parliamentary party
and a leadership challenge was launched, while on 4 July, Nigel Farage announced his
resignation as head of UKIP.
Outside the UK many Eurosceptic leaders celebrated and expected others to follow the UK
example. The right-wing Dutch populist Geert Wilders said that the Netherlands should
follow Britain's example and hold a referendum on whether the Netherlands should stay in
the European Union. However, opinion polls in the fortnight following the British
referendum show that the immediate reaction in the Netherlands and other European
countries was a decline in support for Eurosceptic movements.
A week after the referendum, Gordon Brown, a former Labour Prime Minister who
had signed the Lisbon Treaty in 2007, warned of a danger that in the next decade the country
would be refighting the referendum. He wrote that remainers were feeling they must be
pessimists to prove that Brexit is unmanageable without catastrophe, while leavers
optimistically claim economic risks are exaggerated.
The previous Labour Prime Minister, Tony Blair, in October 2016 called for a second
referendum, a decision through parliament or a general election to decide finally if Britain
should leave the EU. Former leader of the Conservative Prime Minister John Major argued in
November 2016 that parliament will have to ratify whatever deal is negotiated and then,
depending on the deal there could be a case for a second referendum.
These terms have increasingly been used as debate focused on the terms of the UK's
departure from the EU. There is no strict definition of either, but they are used to refer to the
closeness of the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit.
So at one extreme, "hard" Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like
the free movement of people in order to maintain access to the EU single market. At the other
end of the scale, a "soft" Brexit might follow a similar path to Norway, which is a member of
the single market and has to accept the free movement of people as a result.
Once Article 50 is triggered, the UK has two years to negotiate its withdrawal. But no one
really knows how the Brexit process will work - Article 50 was only created in late 2009 and
it has never been used. Former Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, now Chancellor, wanted
Britain to remain in the EU, and he has suggested it could take up to six years for the UK to
complete exit negotiations. The terms of Britain's exit will have to be agreed by 27 national
parliaments, a process which could take some years, he has argued.
EU law still stands in the UK until it ceases being a member. The UK will continue to abide
by EU treaties and laws, but not take part in any decision-making.
The UK referendum was not binding constitutionally, and many scholars have argued that a
very tight referendum does not send a clear signal for fundamental constitutional change. The
UK Parliament is sovereign and thus even a very clear Brexit referendum cannot bind it
legally. So Parliament and, with added emphasis, a new parliament elected in a new
general election could decide to ignore the referendum. Politically, however, it would be
very difficult to completely ignore the referendum. Given the implications of leaving the EU
internal market, some have suggested that a second version of the Brexit deal, with greater
control over immigration, could still pay lip service to Brexit while largely maintaining the
status quo.
What will happen to the economy when Britain leaves the EU?
The Treasury has issued a series of dire warnings, even claiming that Britain would be
plunged into a year-long recession in the event of Brexit.
Pro-EU Chancellor George Osborne warns that the pound would weaken, while up to
820,000 jobs could be lost within two years.
He has claimed that the economy would be six per cent smaller and British households would
each be worse off by 4,300 a year by 2030.
But Brexit campaigners have dismissed the Governments scaremongering analysis saying
there is no evidence that the pound would fall.
Eurosceptics believe that Brexit would allow Britain to take back control of its economy,
paving the way for future prosperity.
India is one of the most lucrative markets for foreign investors and, hence, we attract
attention globally. So, any major change across the globe, be it political or economic, is
bound to have an impact on India too.
Britain always provided a gateway to the European Union. Many Indian businesses have their
offices in Britain so they can avail benefits and continue to remain a part of the EU. But with
Brexit, this benefit will be taken away and may result in companies relocating their business
set ups to other places.
Brexit might also have a positive effect, but these results may not show up immediately. The
process might take time considering that the new government will take time to design and
implement their policies.
Automobile, Pharma and IT might be the most affected. NASSCOM has predicted that the
effect of Brexit will be felt on the $108 Billion Indian IT sector in the short term. Leading
Indian IT firms have not commented on it as since there is a possibility of renegotiations for
all the ongoing projects because of the devaluation in the value of pound. These things can be
covered up in the next few years wherein alternate arrangements can be placed between the
countries.
In the automobile industry, Brexit may lead to reduction in sales and companies that derive
good revenues of profits from Britain could get hurt majorly.
Britain is one of the most sought after education destination for Indians. Before Brexit,
British universities were forced to offer scholarships and subsidies to the citizens of the UK
and EU. Brexit frees up funds for the other students and more Indian students might be able
to get scholarships.
Reduction in pound value will reduce travelling cost to the UK and will make it a good travel
destination.
Impact on GDP
Brexit will have an impact on India's GDP growth. "We have lowered our aggregate 2016
GDP growth forecast for Asia excluding Japan from 5.9% to 5.6% and India's 2016 GDP
growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.6%," said the Nomura Report. However, there is no need for
Indian investors to worry about this small fall in the growth rate, because we will still be the
fastest growing major economy of the world. The government is also taking steps to boost the
GDP growth and steps such as the recent FDI liberalisation will help in achieving it.
When we look at the whole picture, it emerges that long-term investors need not worry about
Brexit. "Investors should not change their asset allocation based on events like this. Since
India's economy is doing well from a longterm view, there is nothing to worry," says
Sachdeva. A. Balasubrahmanian, CEO, Birla Sunlife MF concurs with this view: "Investors
should not bother too much about such events. The country is on the right direction and the
long-term direction of the market is driven by fundamentals and not just by such events," he
says.
Long-term impact on trade and policy: India has been negotiating a free trade agreement
(FTA) with the EU, which has been at an impasse on the issue of negotiating bilateral
investment treaties. Now that the UK is out of the EU, India may not only have to renegotiate
the FTA with the union, but also have to work toward a separate agreement with the UK. To
be sure though, it could take more than two years for the UK to formally exit the EU.
Impact on Indian companies: As many as 800 Indian companies do business with the UK,
and in some manner or measure, the UKs exit from the European common market would
impact them all, although the jury is still out on whether it would be positive or negative. In
recent times, Indian conglomerates like the Tata Group (Tata Consultancy Services, Tata
Motors and Tata Steel) have acquired businesses in the UK. Other notable Indian companies
operating in the UK or doing business with that country include Infosys, Wipro, Hindalco, Dr.
Reddys Laboratories, Lupin, Tech Mahindra, Lodha Developers, Indiabulls Housing
Finance, Bharat Forge and Motherson Sumi.
IT industry body Nasscom said Britains exit will mark a phase of uncertainty for the $108-
billion Indian IT sector in the near term. However, in the longer run it will be a mix of
challenges and opportunities as the UK would seek to compensate for loss of preferential
access to EU markets, Nasscom said.
Mahindra Group CFO VS Parthasarathy said the impact on India and Indian industries will
not be significant. The impact on Mahindra Group will be muted, he added. Tata Motors-
owned Jaguar Land Rover said it is business as usual and that it will manage the long-term
impact and implications of the decision.
However, Biocon CMD Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw told the Press Trust of India that the UK vote
to leave the EU has opened up a Pandoras box of grave uncertainties and India cannot be
in denial that it will be immune to the development.