CHP 5 Annual Money 07

5 Money and Banking
5.1 Monetary Policy

SBP continued to maintain a tight monetary policy during FY07. This was desirable to further
moderate excess aggregate demand pressures in the economy which were still present despite
continued monetary tightening since September 2004. Towards the end of FY06, the evidence of
strong demand pressures was particularly noticeable in: (1) high growth in the credit to private sector,
and (2) robust growth in country‟s import that resulted in sharp widening of the current account
deficit.1 Furthermore, the Federal Budget for FY07 had envisaged an expansionary fiscal policy
which had potential to add further to demand pressures. More importantly, the presence of excessive
demand pressures was already obvious in terms of high and volatile inflation through most of FY06.
Considering that low inflation provides the best Table 5.1: Key Macro Targets and Performance
conducive environment for growth and growth in percent
investment, the inflation target for FY07 was
FY06 FY07
set 6.5 percent compared to a high inflation of
7.9 percent in FY06. However, the monetary Provisional
Targets Actual Targets Estimates
management during FY07 was complicated by GDP 7.0 6.6 7.0 7.0
the dual mandate of maintaining price stability Inflation 8.0 7.9 6.5 7.8
and economic growth, that required SBP to M2 12.8 15.1 13.5 19.3
avoid significant slippage in targeted real GDP
growth for FY07 that could have occurred due to excessive tightening.
In this backdrop, the monetary policy framework for FY07 envisaged a further slowdown in monetary
expansion (M2) to 13.5 percent from 15.1 percent growth realized in FY06. Given the envisaged
nominal GDP growth of 14.0 percent, the M2 target of 13.5 percent during FY07 was set especially to
avoid the creation of monetary overhang. Simultaneously, as export growth continued to weaken,
SBP took measures to partially shelter strategic sectors (textiles, and exports).
In order to achieve its target, SBP first raised

Figure 5.1: Liquidity Conditions in the Inter -bank Market
the reserve requirements for banks on July 22,
Overnight repo rate Discount rate
2006 and then increased its policy rate by 50
10
basis points to 9.5 percent on July 29, 2006.2
At the same time, SBP also continued to drain 8
excess liquidity from the inter-bank market
6
and maintained the overnight rates
persistently close to the discount rate through
percent
4
most of FY07 (see Figure 5.1).3 In addition,
the SBP provided support to the exporters in 2
the form of reducing rates on export finance
0
schemes (EFS), and a debt-swap facility that
5-Dec-06
12-Mar-07
30-Sep-06
12-Feb-07
31-Aug-06
11-Apr-07
12-Jun-07
9-Jan-07
1-Aug-06
4-Nov-06
3-Jul-06
14-May-07
substantially reduced the cost of fixed

investment loans acquired in recent years.
1
Current account deficit had widened to US $ 4.9 billion by end-FY06.
2
It may be pointed out that SBP had earlier raised its policy rate by 150 basis points to 9.0 percent on April 11, 2005.
3
During FY07, SBP mopped up Rs 936.0 billion through OMOs compared to Rs 636.2 billion in the preceding year.
Furthermore, the co-efficient of variation of overnight rates during FY07 has declined to 0.1 percent compared to 0.2 percent
during FY06.
57
State Bank of Pakistan Annual Report 2006-2007
The refinance facility by the SBP posed

difficulties in liquidity management and partly Figure 5.2: Volatility in Prices as Measured by Standard
Deviation of YoY Growth Across Months
offset the impact of tight monetary policy on
2.5
aggregate demand. More disappointingly, the
SBP concessional financing did not either lead 2.0
to a higher export growth nor new Core inflation
standard deviation
(NFNE)
investments in the textile sector. 1.5
SBP monetary policy proved effective in 1.0

considerably moderating demand pressures in
some sectors of the economy as reflected in a 0.5
Headline CPI
visible slowdown in import demand and
private sector credit during FY07. The 0.0
reduction in demand pressures was also
FY05
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY04
FY06
FY07
reflected in the continued downtrend in core
inflation (NFNE).4 The monetary tightening
was clearly not excessive, given that the real
GDP growth during FY07 comfortably Figure 5.3: Contribution to Growth in Private Sector Loans
achieved its target. Working capital Fixed investment Trade finance
Other businesses Personal Other
Tight liquidity conditions in the inter-bank

market probably helped in reducing
speculative and unproductive demand for FY07
credit. In this perspective, it is encouraging
that the demand for fixed investment loans Business loans
during FY07 has accelerated. Even a part of
the slowdown visible in working capital loans FY06
appears short-lived (as a few structural factors
limited the demand and supply of these loans
during the year). More evidently, the personal -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
loans slowed down significantly during FY07 percentage points
(see Figure 5.3).
Unfortunately, the impact of the slowdown in Figure 5.4: Trend in Inflation

demand pressures in the economy did not Headline CPI inflation Core inflation (NFNE)
translate into a desirable decline in overall Core inflation (trimmed)
CPI inflation during FY07 (see Figure 5.4). 10

Average CPI inflation for the year was 1.3 9
percentage points higher than the annual 8
target, mainly because the gains from a
percent
deceleration in non-food inflation were 7

largely offset by an unexpected strength in 6
food inflation, particularly during H2-FY07. 5
To put this in perspective, had food inflation
in FY07 remained at the average level 4
May-06
May-07
Mar-06
Mar-07
Sep-05
Sep-06
Jan-06
Jan-07
Nov-06
Nov-05
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
observed in FY06 (i.e., 6.9 percent), CPI

inflation would have remained below the 6.5
percent target for the year.
4
Although the inflation during FY06 and FY07 has remained almost unchanged, the volatility in FY07 across months was
visibly lower than in FY06. This trend is observable in both the headline CPI as well as core inflation (see Figure 5.2).
58
Money and Banking
In this regard, empirical evidence indicates that it is inappropriate to target food inflation through
monetary measures, which typically have longer term (and broader) impacts, as the food inflation is
typically volatile (short-lived). On the other hand, administrative actions and policies targeting
market structure issues (including collusive behavior by producers and distributors) are typically more
effective in containing food inflation. Nonetheless, monetary policy does have an important role by
addressing inflationary expectations and preventing the seepage of pressures from rising food prices
into the broader economy (see Box 5.1).5
Box 5.1: What is the Second Round Impact of Food Inflation?

The food inflation in Pakistan has remained high throughout FY07 due to a number of supply shocks in commodities such as
wheat, sugar, vegetables, etc. This stubbornly high food inflation has raised the suspicion that impact of the supply shocks
may bring about a permanent increase in underlying inflationary pressures – a phenomenon also known as second round
effect.
The transmission of second round impact on inflation generally takes place through expectation channel, whereby a
temporary supply shock brings about a permanent rise in inflation expectations, which in turn is reflected in higher wages.
The build-up of wage pressures feeds back into future inflation and ultimately generates a wage-price spiral. Thus, the
second round effects of a supply shock could lead to further increases in inflation and eventually require a monetary policy
response.
It is evident that the presence of second round effects makes it difficult to appropriately assess the impact of supply shocks
on the economy. It is however acknowledged that the likelihood of a strong second round impact is higher in countries (1)
which have experienced episodes of high inflation, and (2) where the monetary policy regime is less credible and inflation
expectations are not well anchored with macro economic fundamentals. In such cases, economic agents will expect inflation
to remain higher following the supply shock, and thus demand larger increase in wages.
However, the monetary policy thus far has

Figure 5.5: Money, GDP Growth and Inflation
clearly did not align the inflation expectations
as per the desired objective due to several M2 growth Nominal GDP Inflation
problems in monetary policy conduct. 20
The first problem for monetary policy during

15
FY07 was the continuous expansion of fiscal
policy and the resultant demand pressures that
percent
partly diluted the impact of tight monetary 10

stance on inflation expectations.6 Moreover,
the government borrowings from the banking
5
system as well as external sector did add
excessively to money supply during FY07.
0
This is evident from an abrupt increase in M2 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
during June 2007 (following the realization of
budgetary receipts from external sources) which resulted in cumulative M2 growth during
FY07exceeding not only the annual target by 5.8 percentage points to reach 19.3 percent, but also to
nominal GDP growth of 14.7 percent during the year(see Figure 5.5). To put this in perspective, M2
growth during Jul-May FY07 was 14.1 percent which was slightly less than the nominal GDP growth
of 14.7 percent for the year. Nonetheless, since the acceleration in M2 growth was concentrated in
the last month of FY07, it probably had only a weak contribution to inflation in FY07, but is more
5
These “second round” impacts include the direct costs (e.g., when rising food commodity prices lead to high productions
costs for processed goods, milk, ethanol, etc.) as well as indirect costs (e.g., high food inflation leads to pressure to increase
in wages). The role of monetary policy becomes even more important in cases where the high food inflation persists for an
extended period, as has been the case through FY07 and which is likely to continue into FY08.
6
Such as receipts from Eurobond and GDR issues, US Aid inflows, multilateral loans, receipts against logistics support etc.
59
likely to impact FY08 inflation, unless Figure 5.6: Monthly Composition of Mone y Supply
corrected by policy (see Figure 5.6).7 (FY07)
NDA NFA Cumulative M2 growth-RHS
The second issue lies in designing the monetary 250 24
policy framework. Specifically, a large part of 200 20
the slippage in M2 target during FY07
stemmed from government borrowings, 150 16
billion Rupees
particularly from the external sector, although
percent
100 12
the actual budgetary financing only marginally
50 8
exceeded the levels envisaged in the Federal
Budget for FY07. This suggests that the 0 4
magnitude of slippage in M2 growth from its -50 0
target would have been substantially lower had -100 -4
the budgetary finance from the external sector
Aug
Jul
Jun
Sep
Feb
Dec
Apr
Mar
Nov
Jan
May
Oct
been incorporated more accurately in the
monetary policy framework for FY07 (see Table 5.2: Composition of M2 Growth by Sectors
Table 5.2).8 Following from the fact that the percent
central bank‟s credibility in meeting the Contribution in M2 FY07 Slippage from

growth target
prescribed targets is essential in containing
inflation expectations, the slippages in M2 FY06 FY07 Change Target Actual Slippage
growth during FY07 will be a challenge to NFA-Govt. 5.0 5.9 0.8 - - -

subsequent disinflation measures. NFA-non-govt. -2.6 2.2 4.7 - - -
NFA 2.5 8.0 5.6 1.4 38.7 37.2
The third issue is related with the volatility in
NDA Govt. 2.9 2.7 -0.2 15.4 13.4 -2.0
reserve money growth. During FY07, the
NDA non-govt. 9.7 8.5 -1.1 17.0 15.6 -1.4
abrupt pattern of government borrowings from
the SBP has been one of the major factors in NDA 12.6 11.3 -1.4 16.7 14.2 -2.5
increasing the volatility in reserve money M2 15.1 19.3 4.2 13.5 19.3 5.8
growth across months (see Figure 5.7). Since
reserve money serves as operational target to Figure 5.7: Reserve Money Composition of SBP NDA
achieve the M2 growth, its volatile growth not Flows (cumulative) during the month
only creates difficulties in monetary policy SBP NFA Other
Reserve money Govt. borrowing
conduct but may potentially send undesirable SBP NDA Refinance
signals to the market participants. In addition, 250 150
the accommodation provided by the SBP in 200 100
the form of debt-swap to textile sector 50
partially offset the SBP measures to tighten 150
billion Rupees
billion Rupees
0
liquidity from the inter-bank market. 100
-50
50
Therefore, containing the inflation -100
expectations requires measures at the end of 0 -150
both the government and the Central Bank. -50 -200
While the burden of ensuring the adequate
Nov
Nov
Jul
Mar
May
Sep
Jul
Mar
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
food supply and other administrative

measures to control the level and volatility in
7
It is important to mention here that the sharp increase in SBP NFA during June 2007 did not cause a proportional rise in
reserve money. This was due to both, (1) government retirement of SBP debt; and (2) SBP sterilization measures. In
specific terms, the impact of increase in SBP NFA (of Rs 159.1 billion) during June 2007 on reserve money growth was
partially offset through government retirements of Rs 80.6 billion to SBP and partially through SBP repo sale of government
securities worth Rs 61.8 billion during the month.
8
The credit plan for FY07 envisaged an increase of Rs 9.8 billion only in NFA of the banking system. However, the actual
NFA inflows during FY07 were Rs 285.5 billion.
60
Money and Banking
food prices lies principally on the government, the task of containing inflation expectations, however,
necessitates addressing the sources of slippages in M2 from its targeted growth.
In order to address this, the SBP introduced qualitative improvement in the monetary policy
framework for FY08 to address two key sources of reserve money growth, i.e., government
borrowings from the Central Bank and SBP support under EFS (see Box 5.2). Specifically, to contain
the former, the SBP has recommended the government to continue retire the SBP debt in FY08, adopt
a more balanced domestic debt strategy whereby budget is financed from long term financing sources,
and most importantly, recommended quarterly ceilings on budgetary borrowings from the Central
Bank.
In sum, though the containment of M2 growth within the target would remain a challenge during
FY08 especially in the wake of potential foreign exchange inflows and budgetary borrowings, the
SBP will continue sterilizing their liquidity impact. Thus, the primary challenge that remains for
FY08 is the inflation persistence on the back of high oil and food prices that may hinder the SBP
efforts in achieving 6.5 inflation target set for the year. Indeed the SBP is determined to achieve this
target and will actively use the available policy instruments to bring down inflation to its target level.
Key measures in monetary policy framework for FY08

The monetary policy actions were complemented by other measures to reduce pressures on reserve
money growth. Specifically, the SBP has started gradually reducing banks‟ reliance on refinance
facilities.9 Thus, on one hand the government is suggested to retire to the SBP Rs 63.2 billion in
FY08, and on the other, banks are required to reduce total outstanding refinance at end-June 2007 by
30 percent during FY08.
In addition to limiting the growth of domestic components of reserve money, the SBP is equally
conscious of the potential impact of foreign exchange inflows on reserve money. While a part of
these flows remains exogenous to the monetary policy, the SBP will remain mindful of the pressures
these flows can create and will continue sterilizing their impact on reserve money. In this regard, the
major challenge to the SBP in continuing sterilization was to offer desirable returns in OMOs while
simultaneously preserving the rationality of the yield curve. Therefore, the increase in discount rate
from 9.5 percent to 10.0 percent effective from August 01, 2007 is expected to support sterilization
measures if required in FY08.
In order to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and avoid ambiguities in sending out policy
signals, the SBP has abolished the Annual Credit Plan (ACP). This was a long due measure,
following the removal of credit ceilings which made credit plan redundant. Since broad money (M2)
was the only intermediate target in the monetary policy framework, SBP continued to prescribe targets
for NFA, NDA, government borrowings and private sector credit. It is expected that the abolishment
of ACP will help removing the uncertainties emanating from multiple targets of monetary aggregates
(see Box 5.3).
Box 5.2: Controlling the Growth in Reserve Money at the Core of the New Monetary Policy Framework
To achieve the desirable growth in aggregate money supply, SBP uses the reserve money (RM) as an operational instrument.
The desirable path of reserve money growth is obtained by simply dividing the desired money stock with the estimated
money multiplier. During the course of the year, the SBP monitors the actual reserve money growth and make adjustments
through market interventions whenever RM growth deviates from the desirable path. For instance, whenever the actual RM
falls short of (increases beyond) the target, the SBP may conduct OMOs to inject (absorb) liquidity in the system by
replenishing (debiting) banks‟ reserves and thus increase (reduce) the RM. As such, the SBP conduct of monetary policy
revolves around the changes in reserve money through which it achieves its targeted monetary growth. Therefore, it is
important to maintain both the level as well as fluctuations in the reserve money.
9
See Monetary Policy Statement July-December 2007.
61
This said, there exists a few factors that have put a serious question mark on the exogeneity of changes in the reserve money.
In specific terms, the SBP‟s decision to keep reserve money at a certain level is not dependent solely upon its desired
monetary policy but appears to be determined by the factors outside the purview of monetary policy. Among these, the
major factors include; (1) exchange rate policy; (2) government spending and the inter-bank market‟s desired level of
interest rates; and (3) subsidized export finance. It is important to analyze each of these factors individually.
The influence of exchange rate policy on reserve money growth channels through the „impossible trinity‟ phenomenon that
states that it is hard to achieve liberal capital flows, fixed exchange rate and independent monetary policy, together. In
simple terms, when the inter-bank market is flooded with the foreign capital inflows, the SBP intervenes to mop up
additional foreign exchange to ensure the stability in exchange rate. However, such interventions lead to a rise in NFA of
the SBP and thus the reserve money. Second, the government borrowings from the SBP and the external budgetary
financing also play an important role in reserve money growth. While the external budgetary finance is already taken into
account while projecting the reserve money growth path; the former is determined by commercial banks‟ interest in
investing in government papers at a certain rate. As such, whenever the banks are reluctant to fund budgetary requirements,
SBP has to directly fund the budgetary requirements. Finally, the demand for subsidized export credit is a function of a
number of factors including, the overall export demand from the economy, level of subsidy determined by the market rates,
demand for alternative modes of trade finance, i.e., FE-25 loans that in turn depends upon interest rate differential as well as
the exchange rate.
As a result, the SBP control on reserve money limits to responding to the changes that are caused by above-mentioned
factors. In other words, the SBP can only sterilize the impact of changes in RM. However, sterilization does not only entail
cost to the SBP but the scope of sterilization depends upon other macroeconomic variables. For instance, the sterilization
process that the SBP followed post 9/11 developments had a wider scope as the interest rates were falling. In specific terms,
the government borrowed heavily from commercial banks in T-bill auctions and retired the SBP debt. The room for
sterilization was provided by the falling interest rate scenario wherein the government was replacing its high cost debt of
SBP through low cost debt from commercial banks. However, in a rising interest rate scenario, the government may not
have incentive to replace its low cost debt with high cost borrowing as this would raise the debt servicing burden.
Another important factor that restricts SBP ability to continue sterilization is the potential impact of sterilization on interest
rates. For instance, if SBP tends to offload its stock of government securities through open market operations, it will require
an increase in interest rates. Although in recent months the banks have been investing heavily in government papers but this
owes entirely to a relatively low advance to deposit ratio caused by a low credit demand from the private sector. Once the
period of seasonal take off starts, banks will reallocate their assets to private sector to earn better yields on their assets
especially given the higher-than-required capital adequacy ratio and asset quality.
Therefore, to attain a better control over the reserve money and its fluctuations, a structural change was required in the
monetary policy framework to improve SBP‟s influence over inflation and inflationary expectations. As a result, the new
monetary policy framework has been designed in a way which improves the SBP control of reserve money. Major changes
include placing quarterly restrictions in government borrowings directly from SBP and increased emphasis on long term
borrowing from the inter-bank market. In addition, the first step in phasing out subsidized refinancing in various sectors will
be to reduce SBP‟s share in the volume of refinance from 100 percent to 70 percent. In the interim period, however, the
increase in discount rate by 50 basis points will increase SBP‟s ability to sterilize the increase in reserve money through
market interventions. All these measures are expected to bring in a better control of SBP on the changes in reserve money
that eventually will be helpful in achieving the desirable growth in aggregate money supply and thus inflation.
Box 5.3: Rationale Behind the Abandonment of Credit Plan

The exercise of preparing Credit Plan was initiated in 1973 soon after the institutionalization of National Credit Consultative
Council (NCCC). Since then, the preparation of Credit Plan had become a regular annual exercise and continued to become
so even after the abolishment of bank-wise sectoral credit ceilings (and other modes of financial repression) as well as
phasing out of the IMF programs. The rationale behind the abandonment of this exercise is two-fold:
First, after the abolishment of credit ceilings, the entire exercise of preparing credit plan became redundant since the
intermediate target for the SBP monetary policy was the aggregate money supply (M2) alone. The individual M2
components reported in Credit Plan used to provide crude estimates of the causative factors of targeted M2 which were
helpful only to foretell where the possible slippages may emerge from. Second rationale emanated from disseminating the
Credit Plan to the stakeholders and the resultant unnecessary expectations associated with the growth in individual
components of money supply. In specific terms, large deviations of monetary aggregates (other than M2) from the initial
estimates signal strong sentiments in the market even though the SBP does not actually „pursue‟ those estimates. As a result,
not only the performance benchmark for SBP broadens needlessly and heightens the issue of SBP credibility, but the market
expectations remain consistently misaligned with actual policy measures that impede the smooth transmission of monetary
policy to desired objectives.
62
Money and Banking
For instance, it happened on a few occasions that the government external financing increased substantially (not envisaged in
the Credit Plan) resulting in a sudden unexpected rise in NFA of the banking system. The market immediately incorporated
the rise in NFA in their policy assessments, ignoring the likely retirement of government‟s domestic bank borrowings.
Similarly, lower-than-targeted growth of credit to private sector often leads market to expect an accommodative monetary
stance by the SBP irrespective of excessive aggregate money supply growth. The SBP, however, remains concerned solely
with the aggregate money supply growth and does not respond necessarily in accordance with the popular view of the inter-
bank market.
5.2 Monetary Survey Table 5.3: Monetary Survey

A sharp jump in monetary aggregates during billion Rupees
Credit
the last month of FY07 pushed the aggregate Plan for
M2 growth for the year to 19.3 percent (see FY07 FY06 FY07
Table 5.3). This strikingly higher growth in M2 459.9 446.3 658.3
M2 was caused entirely by a phenomenal rise Growth rate 15.1 19.3
in NFA that more than offset the visible NFA 9.8 73.4 274.6
slowdown in the NDA of the banking sector. Growth rate 11.5 38.7
SBP 61.8 222.7
While the increase in NFA reflects the
Scheduled banks 11.6 51.8
improvement in country‟s financial and
NDA 450.1 372.9 383.7
capital account inflows (including government Growth rate 16.1 14.2
borrowings), the slowdown in NDA depicts SBP 22.6 -66.8
reducing excess demand pressures in the Scheduled banks 350.3 450.5
economy as well as a shift in fiscal financing of which
mix towards non-bank sources. Government borrowing 130.1 86.9 92.8
For budgetary support 120.1 67.1 102.0
5.2.1 Net Foreign Assets SBP 135.1 -58.6
Scheduled Banks -68.0 160.6
The NFA of the banking system during FY07
Commodity operations 10.0 19.9 -9.2
increased by Rs 274.6 billion; almost four Non government sector 395.0 408.4 385.7
times the increase during FY06 (see Figure Private sector 390.0 401.8 365.7
5.8). To put this in perspective, the FY07 Other items (net) -75.0 -122.4 -94.9
increase in NFA was the second largest
increase ever, second to only FY03. While
Figure 5.8: Yearly NFA Flows
the sharp increase in NFA during FY03 was
400
caused by surpluses in both the current and
financial accounts, the increase in NFA
during FY07 stemmed entirely from the 300
surplus in financial account, especially in the

billion Rupees
second half of FY07 (see Figure 5.9). 200
Furthermore, most of the H2-FY07 increase 100

in NFA was concentrated in June 2007;
excluding which, the NFA growth in H2- 0
FY07 was visibly lower than that in H2-
FY06.10 The higher growth in NFA during -100
H2-FY07 was mainly caused by a sharp
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY91
FY07
increase in FDI, persistent rise in portfolio

investment, larger receipts in private sector
10
However, this was mainly caused by difference in timing of Euro bond issue. In particular, the receipts of Eurobond
issuance were realized in Mar 2006 during FY06; however, in the period under review, the same were realized in the month
of June.
63
loans, and hefty inflows under logistic support, as well as financial aid from multilateral agencies.
More importantly, a sharp decline in current account deficit during H2-FY07 compared with H1-
FY07 also caused increase in net inflows.11
Figure 5.9: Comparing CAD & Other External Inflows
Current account deficit
This suggests that the NFA growth during FDI excl Privatization Privatization
FY07 was caused by an increase in the net Eurobond GDRs
foreign exchange inflows in both the public Other portfolio Other
sector as well as the private sector. This was in
contrast to FY06, when the foreign exchange
H2 FY07
inflows in the public sector were the key
determinants of the rise in NFA of the banking
system.
H1FY07
The higher public sector inflows reflect the
increased government reliance on privatization
proceeds and other external resources for 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
budgetary finance. In comparison, the surge in billion US$
private sector inflows reflects the promising
growth prospects of the domestic economy, Figure 5.10: Conce ntration of NFA Flows in June
impressive showing of the capital markets, Jun
rising interest rate differential as well as the 250 250
exhausting of credit limits of selected business Series
Sche dule d
1200 SBP NFA 200
entities with domestic banking institutions.12 banks' NFA
billion Rupees
billion Rupees
150 150
Since the forex inflows in the private sector are
100 100
directed through commercial banks, the NFA of
the commercial banks increased sharply during 50 50
FY07. Specifically, the NFA of commercial 0 0
banks increased by Rs 51.8 billion during FY07
compared with net inflows of Rs 11.6 billion in -50 -50
H1 H2 H1 H2
the preceding year (see Figure 5.10).
FY06
FY07
FY06
FY07
FY06
FY07
FY06
FY07
Further strength in scheduled banks‟ NFA came

from the shift in utilization of FE-25 deposits of
commercial banks during FY07 from FY06. In
Figure 5.11: FE-25 Utiliz ation (e nd-June Composition)
specific terms, due to the increase in subsidy To tal Financing (Outs tanding) Within P akis tan
provided under EFS, the foreign currency loans To tal balance with SBP Cas h in hand
decelerated during FY07 (see Figure 5.11). As Others Outs ide P akis tan
a result of lower demand from the domestic
economy, banks‟ placements of foreign Jun-07
currency abroad in form of investments as well
as in nostros also increased during FY07. This Jun-06
substitution in the utilization of FE-25 deposits
further caused the increase in scheduled banks‟ Jun-05
NFA.
Jun-04
0 1 2 3 4
billion US$
11
During the first half of FY07, the external account had remained under pressure thereby resulted into contraction in NFA
through most of the period.
12
Specifically, a few multinational cellular companies had exhausted their prescribed credit limits with the domestic banking
system.
64
Money and Banking
This sharp increase in commercial banks‟ NFA,

however, would have been even higher had the Figure 5.12: Exchange Rate Net Purchases by SBP
Movements
SBP not absorbed the excess foreign exchange H1 H2
liqudity from the inter-bank market. To 61.0 1.7
elaborate this further, though the SBP ended up 1.2
60.6
as a net seller of US dollar in the inter-bank
0.6
market during FY07 similar to FY06, the 60.2
Rs per US$
billion US$
magnitude of these interventions (in net terms) 0.0
were significantly low due to heavy net 59.8
-0.6
purchases during H2-FY07 (see Figure 5.12). 59.4 -1.2
This significant decline in SBP‟s support to the
foreign exchange market during FY07 was the 59.0 -1.7
major contributor to the sharp increase in SBP
May-05
May-06
May-07
Sep-05
Sep-06
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
FY06 FY07
NFA (see Figure 5.13). To put this in
perspective, had the magnitude of US dollar
sales to inter-bank market during FY07
remained the same as in FY06, the increase in Figure 5.13: Contribution of Forex Internvention in Increase
SBP NFA during FY07 would have been half in SBP NFA
the actual increase. The rest of the increase FY06 FY07
was due to relatively higher public sector 250
inflows including logistic support, 200 Impact of Forex selling
disbursement of loans from ADB and IDB and 150
billion Rupees
floatation of GDRs. 100

50
Other
Indeed, it was this sharp rise in SBP NFA 0
which has substantially inflated the reserve -50
money growth during FY07. In this context, -100
the recent increase in discount rate may have -150
two possible implications for the NFA and the SBP NFA FX purchases
Difference in SBP
overall growth in reserve money. On one NFA b/w FY06 &
hand, where the increase in interest rates may FY07
trigger further foreign exchange inflows in the

economy by widening further the interest rate differential, on the other, this would help SBP in
sterilizing the upward pressures on reserve money.
Going forward however, the emergence of vicious circle, i.e., raising interest rates to continue
sterilization but simultaneously attracting foreign exchange inflows and require further sterilization,
may appear as a challenge to the monetary policy conduct. In particular, raising interest rates will be
acceptable only to a level where it does not contribute to an economic downturn. Beyond this,
increasing the interest rates will not be a costless decision. Since the alternative sterilization
instruments also involve draining liquidity from the inter-bank market, using any (or mix) of these
instruments will also exert upward pressures on interest rates (see Box 5.4).
The above discussion therefore suggests that with the increased international financial integration
coupled with the operational problems and costs involved in alternate modes of sterilization, the
international interest rates have a great influence on domestic interest rates and therefore, the list of
trade-offs with which SBP conducts its monetary policy may have expanded.
Box 5.4: The sterilization Experience of Asian Economies

The liquidity management instrument that the SBP used most commonly in the recent months has been the open market
operations (OMOs). Through OMOs, the SBP absorbs surplus liquidity from the inter-bank in exchange of the government
securities held by the central bank. The resulting decline in SBP‟s assets (i.e., holding of government papers) leads to a
contraction in reserve money. Alternatively, along with OMOs, many countries have used different measures to sterilize the
65
impact of different flows on the reserve money. However, it is important to mention that these measures also entail heavy
interest cost that is to be borne by any of the sectors of the economy i.e., either the Central Bank or the government. These
include,
1. Central Bank securities

Central Banks of many countries have issued their own securities to sterilize the foreign inflows mainly due to inadequate
stock of government securities, absence of access of Central Banks to government securities and
underdeveloped/undeveloped market for government securities. But the experiences of these countries have shown that there
also certain limitations to the issuance of Central Bank securities. Firstly, as the interest cost in this case is born by the
Central Bank so increase in overall interest expenses can jeopardize the very existence of the Central Bank by eroding its
profits. e.g., the Central Bank‟s deficit increased to 0.5-0.7 percent of GDP in Colombia during 1990s and even mounted to
1.4 percent of the GDP in Chile. Secondly, Central Bank securities issuance results in two sets of competing risk free papers
with a similar yield curve. In such cases, fragmentation of the debt market can cause instability to the government
borrowings decisions.
2. Government/public sector deposits with Central Bank

A number of south east Asian economies, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, have regulated the excess
liquidity in the inter-bank market by diverting government /public sector deposits from commercial banks to Central Bank.
The use of this instrument increases the interest burden on Central Bank as the government continues to get the market based
return.
3. Market stabilization bonds by the central government

Given the finite stock of government securities held with Central Banks, in many Asian economies, the central governments
create T-bills in excess to the actual financing requirement. These T-bills are used for purpose of liquidity management
alone. The major difference between such arrangement and Central Bank securities is that the fiscal cost in such
arrangements are borne directly by the government. India in 2004 has introduced a new instrument called the market
stabilization scheme (MSS) that has evolved as a useful instrument to sustain the OMOs. Under this scheme, the RBI has
been empowered to issue government securities solely for liquidity absorption purpose. Since its introduction, the scheme
has been effective in medium-term monetary and liquidity management.
4. Interest bearing deposits by scheduled banks

An option used by other countries for draining excess liquidity in the banking system is to pay interest on deposits offered by
the commercial banks to the Central Banks on voluntary basis. A few countries like Malaysia and Taiwan have exercised this
option. In this case, the interest cost of the deposits is reflected in the balance sheet of the Central Bank.
The above discussion is based on findings of the Report of the Working Group prepared by the Reserve Bank of India on
Instruments of Sterilization
5.2.2 Net Domestic Assets

Growth in NDA of the banking sector during
FY07 slowed down to 14.2 percent during Figure 5.14: Causative Factors of NDA Growth
FY07 compared to 16.1 percent growth during FY06 FY07
FY06. This was mainly because of sluggish 20

growth in overall credit to private sector as
well as a lower growth in government sector 16
borrowings (see Figure 5.14).
12
percent
Government Borrowings for Budgetary

8
Support
Government budgetary borrowings from the
4
banking system during FY07 remained
comfortably within the target, though
0
significantly higher compared to the
Credit to government Credit to non-govt.
borrowings during FY06. These lower
borrowings were possible due to a substantial
66
Money and Banking
increase in non-bank debt as well as higher external sector borrowings during the year.13
As such, the reliance on bank finance for Figure 5.15: Reducing Reliance on Bank Finance
budgetary purposes reduced further (see Fiscal deficit as percent of GDP
Figure 5.15). The change in financing mix Bank finance to total budgetary finance (RHS)
has implications for both the debt 5 60
management as well as monetary policy.
4 40
First, the relative increase in domestic non-
bank borrowings will lengthen the maturity 3 20
percent
percent
profile of deficit finance and thus increase the
debt servicing cost. At the same time it will 2 0
also make the government debt less

1 -20
vulnerable to adverse changes in short-term
interest rates. Second, the increased reliance
0 -40
on external finance, due to its direct impact
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
on SBP NFA and reserve money, has created
significant pressures on the conduct of
Figure 5.16: Budgetary Borrowings from Banking System
monetary policy through the course of FY07.14
FY06 FY07
200
To elaborate further, apparently, the below
target budgetary borrowings exhibit an Credit Plan Target for
160
improved monetary-fiscal co ordination, but in FY07
actual the fiscal stance during FY07 was one of
billion Rupees
120
the major challenges in modulating the
Eurobond issue
monetary policy. Specifically: 80
1. The growth in aggregate budgetary finance 40

(both domestic and external) probably OGDCL GDRs
contributed in the inflationary expectations 0
during the year (see Box 5.5);
Aug
Jul
Mar
May
Feb
Sep
Jan
Nov
Oct
Dec
Apr
2. Since the increase in aggregate budgetary Jun

borrowings can put upward pressures on interest rates, this raises the risks of crowding out of private
investments (see Box 5.6);
3. Due to uncertainties regarding the magnitude and timing of revenue collection and disbursements
of external finance, the trend in budgetary borrowings continued to follow an abrupt pattern which
created difficulties in liquidity management. This phenomenon was evident mainly in Q3-FY07 when
the budgetary borrowings from the banking system exceeded substantially from the estimates
prescribed in Credit Plan for FY07 (see Figure 5.16). Such episodes of abrupt borrowings send
undesirable signals regarding inflation expectations.
4. In sharp contrast to FY06, the budgetary borrowings from the banking system though constituted of
commercial bank borrowings during FY07, the disaggregated data shows that throughout H1-FY07,
13
Government mobilized Rs 56 billion through NSS during FY07 compared to Rs 5.0 billion during FY06. In addition, the
net collection through PIBs reached Rs 48 billion during FY07 compared with net retirements in FY06. As a result,
domestic non-bank borrowings during FY07 reached Rs 86 billion during FY06.
14
The higher external borrowings also raise the costs to the economy following the adverse exchange rate
movement.
67
the budgetary borrowings have been a major factor of excessive liquidity creation as the government
borrowed heavily from the SBP.
In specific terms, up to December 2006, Figure 5.17: Composition of Budgetary Borrowings

commercial banks were reluctant to lend to SBP Scheduled banks
government as the interest rate differential 250
between government and private sector lending 200
had widened substantially following the 150
billion Rupees
increase in discount rate and reserve 100
requirements in July 2006. Therefore, the
50
participation of banks in T-bill auctions was
0
fairly limited and the banks were bidding at
excessively higher rates. As a result, the -50
burden of financing budgetary requirements -100
fell on the SBP (see Figure 5.17). This had
21-Oct-06
2-Jun-07
10-Mar-07
23-Sep-06
10-Feb-07
29-Jul-06
30-Jun-07
1-Jul-06
16-Dec-06
7-Apr-07
13-Jan-07
5-May-07
26-Aug-06
18-Nov-06
two consequences:
Firstly, the resultant rise in the reserve money

growth increased the risk of acceleration in M2 growth and inflation. Secondly, the stock of T-bills
holdings with the commercial banks declined sharply which (amid increase in SLR requirements)
necessitated sizeable replenishment. Therefore, during H2 FY07 commercial banks started investing
aggressively in the government paper.
Box 5.5: Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation: Review of Empirical Literature

Milton Friedman (1968), in his famous presidential address to American Economic Association had warned not to expect too
much from monetary policy since it can not permanently influence the level of real output, unemployment and real return on
securities. However, he asserted that monetary authority could exert substantial control over inflation in the long run.
Commenting on this word of caution, Sargent (1981) viewed that the list of things that the monetary policy can not control
can even include inflation especially under the coordination where fiscal policy dominates monetary policy. This is because
if the fiscal deficit can not be financed through other resources, monetary authority will have to print money and create
inflation.
Thus fiscal imbalances have always remained in the inflation models. However, fiscal view of inflation has been more
dominant in developing countries with less efficient tax collection and limited sources to external financing tend to lower the
relative cost of signiorage and increased dependence on inflation tax (for instance, Alesina and Drazen (1991), Calvo and
Vegh (1999. Similarly, Piontkivsky (2001), based upon the monthly data for Ukraine from 1995-2000, found that the impact
of Central Bank‟s claims on government on inflation is more than the impact of monetary base and exchange rate and thus
the fiscal policy remains an important inflationary factor in Ukraine. However, Catao and Terrones (2003) concluded that in
exploring a strong and statistically significant relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation across a broad range of
countries with varying inflation rate is a task yet to accomplish. The similar concern was shown by Blanchard and Fischer
(1989): “a common criticism of this stress on the budget deficit is that the data rarely shows a strong positive association
between the size of the budget deficit and the inflation rate”.
For instance, Fischer, Sahay and Vegh (2002), using a fixed effect in a panel of 94 developing and developed countries,
conclude that fiscal deficits are main drivers of inflation and estimate that a one percentage point improvement in fiscal
deficit to GDP ratio typically leads to 4.2 percentage points decline in inflation. However, they further concluded that a
strong positive relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation can not always be detected in the data. In the cross section
time series panels, the relationship was significant for high inflation countries but insignificant for low inflation countries.
Studies conducted to identify the relationship between budgetary finance and inflation in Pakistan have described three broad
channels. First, fiscal deficits have a direct and significant relationship with inflation, independent of its indirect effects
through increase in money supply. This relationship was found in Shabbir and Ahmed (1994) that concluded that a 1 percent
increase in budget deficit leads to 6-7 percent increase in general price level. Furthermore, a preliminary investigation into
the nature of this large and significant direct effect shows that budget deficits may be influencing formation of price
expectations. Second, domestic financing of government from the banking system is inflationary in the long run. The
findings of Choudhary and Ahmed (1995) corroborate this relationship by suggesting that money supply is endogenous and
depends on fiscal deficit, among other variables. They suggested that in order to control inflationary pressures in the
economy, the government must cut down the size of budget deficit. Third, the fiscal deficit has a positive relationship with
68
Money and Banking
inflation through balance of payment channel. Khan and Qasim (1996) presented this view suggesting that expansionary
fiscal stance has been reflected in deteriorating balance of payments in Pakistan. As a result, the downward pressures on
Rupee emerge that eventually leads to inflation. Similar results were found by Agha & Khan, (2006). Using annual data
from FY73 to FY03 and employing Johansen‟s co integration technique and assuming the impact of GDP and exchange rate
as exogenous, they found that the long run inflation is not only related to fiscal imbalances but also to the sources of
financing fiscal deficit. The co-integrating vector suggested that Rs 1 billion increase in the borrowings from banking
system would increase the price level by 0 .0048 percentage points in two years. In addition, Rs 1 billion increase in fiscal
deficit would increase the price level by 0.0215 percentage points.
References:
1. Agha, A.I. and M.S. Khan (2006). “An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation in Pakistan” SBP-
Research Bulletin, 2 (2): 343-361
2. Catao, L. and E.M. Terrones (2003). “Fiscal deficit and inflation” IMF Working Paper No P/03/65.Washington,
D.C:IMF.
3. Chaudhary, M.A and N.Ahmad. (1995) “Money Supply, Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan.” Pakistan Development
Review, 34: 945-956.
4. Fischer, S., R.Sahay, and C.A.Vegh (2002). “Modern hyper-and high inflations.” Journal of Economic Literature,
40(3): 837-880
5. Khan, A. H. and A. M. Qasim (1996). “Inflation in Pakistan Revisited.” Pakistan Development Review, 35: 747-759.
6. Shabbir, T. and A. Ahmed (1994). “Are Government Budget Deficit Inflationary? Evidence from Pakistan.” Pakistan
Development Review, 33: 955-967
Box 5.6: Crowding out of Private Sector: A Phenomenon Absent by Now

During FY05-FY07, the SBP has raised the discount rate from 7.5 percent to 10.0 percent and kept tightening the money
market liquidity through increase in frequency of open market operations. As a result, the weighted average lending rates
have started moving up. Unfortunately, this tight monetary posture is being complemented with expansionary fiscal stance.
In particular, budget deficit, as percent of GDP, has been on a rising trend for last couple of years after having declined
during FY02-FY04. The rising deficit has resulted in increased budgetary borrowings from the banking sector, especially
amid the less interest of general public in NSS instruments. Indeed, higher government borrowings from the banking system
put upward pressures on interest rates, at least theoretically. Therefore, it is argued that if the tight monetary stance
continues with the expansionary fiscal policy, the private investment in the economy is likely to crowd out.
Theoretical base of Crowding-out

Benjamin Friedman (1978) has examined two kinds of crowding out; (1) transactions crowding out; and (2) portfolio
crowding out. The transactional crowding out phenomenon is quite simple. Increase in government borrowings from the
banking system reduces the supply of loanable funds. This causes an increase in demand-supply gap of private sector credit
and drives up interest rates. Finally the increase in interest rates leads to a slowdown in private sector investment in the
economy and hence the economic growth. However, this is only true, as Keynes argued, if the negative impact of slowdown
in private sector investments outweighs the positive impact of government spending and the economic growth remains
stagnant. If the government spending stimulates the private sector investment then the phenomenon is referred to as
„crowding-in‟. Portfolio crowding out refers to case when government finances its deficits through issuing interest bearing
bills/certificates.
Figure 5.6.1: Relationship b/w WALR and Budget Deficit
Evidence of Crowding-In in Pakistan
18 18
Significant empirical evidence is available that verifies
1972-1995 1996-2007
the existence of crowding-in phenomenon in Pakistan. 16
16
Haque, A Tariq used the 22 years data from 1980 to 2002
and found the evidence of private investment being 14 14
crowded-in by public investment expenditures in
Pakistan. Likewise the estimates of Haqueue and Montiel 12 12
WALR
(1991) supported the hypothesis that the government

capital stock is positively correlated with the private 10 10
sector capital accumulation.
8 8
In particular, the infrastructure build up resulting from
government investments appeared to facilitate private 6 6
investment. 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 3 4 5 6 7
However, taking into account the impact of financial
repression is important while analyzing the positive Budget deficit as percent of GDP
impact of public sector investments on private sector
investments and hence the economic growth.
69
Specifically, prior to the financial sector reforms introduced 1991 onwards, the weighted average lending rates in the
economy were entirely administered and banks had no control over pricing their loan products. Rather, lending rate
mechanism was to be followed by ceilings on lending rates within which banks could change prices. As such there appears
to be no relationship between the budget deficits and lending rates in the economy during the 1972-95 periods (see Figure
5.6.1).
Table 5.6.1: Pair wise Granger Causality Tests
The financial sector reforms brought in the much awaited Sample: 2001:06 2006:09
shift in structure of interest rates from purely administered Lag: 1
interest rates to market based interest rates. During 1995,
Null Hypothesis: Obser F-Stats Probab
the ceilings on lending rates were removed followed by
the removal of interest floors during 1997. Govt. borrowings does not Granger
Cause WALR 64 4.34 0.04
WALR does not Granger Cause
As a result, interest rates started responding to the govt. borrowings 1.29 0.25
movements in budget deficits. Therefore during this
period a significant positive relation can be found between the government borrowings from the banking system and the
lending rates; with granger causality running from former to latter (see Table 5.6.1). Therefore, it can safely be argued that
it was only the period 1996 and onwards when any relationship between the budget deficit and interest rates can be
established.
References:
1. Evans, P. (1985). “Do large deficits produce high interest rates.” American Economic Review, 75(1):68-87
2. Friedman, B.M. (1978). “Crowding in or Crowding Out? Economic consequences of financing government deficits.”
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 3:593-641
3. Haque, T. A. (2003). “Fiscal strategy for growth and Employment in Pakistan: An alternative consideration, a case study”
ILO Employment Paper No. 2003/56
4. Haque, Nadeem. U and P. Montiel. (1991). “The macroeconomics of public sector deficits; the case of Pakistan”, World
Bank Policy Research and External Affairs working Paper No. WP 1991/673.
Private Sector Credit

Credit to private sector registered a moderate Figure 5.18: Private Sector Average Growth (percent)
growth of 17.3 percent during FY07 which is Credit in Five Years FY99-00 FY01-02
the lowest growth in the preceding five years. Volume FY03-04 FY05-06
As percent of GDP (RHS) FY07
Since the growth in private sector credit was
only slightly higher than the nominal GDP 500 30 30
growth during FY07, the private sector credit 400 25 24
to GDP ratio slowed down after accelerating in 20 18
billion Rupees
the preceding five years (see Figure 5.18). 300

15 12
200
10 7
Indeed, while some slowdown is explained by
100
a very large base of FY05 and FY06 when the 5 1
credit grew by a robust 28.9 percent on 0 0 -5
average, a large part of the slowdown reflects
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
Nov
Jul
Mar
May
Sep
Jan
the convergence of private sector credit growth

to its long term trend.
Credit demand and sector concentration

The slowdown in business credit emanated from both the demand and supply side factors. In specific
terms, while the increase in raw material prices did cause acceleration in credit demand in a few
industries, the increase in interest rates had put significant downward pressures on credit demand
especially in the industries that are capable of generating cash flows internally sufficient to meet
working capital requirements. This is evident in the decline in debt to equity ratio of the corporate
sector during CY0615. This suggests that the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission
mechanism was effective during FY07 (see Box 5.7). In addition, a few multi-national companies
resorted to international credit market to meet financing gaps that appeared as a result of exhausting of
15
Please see Banking System Review for 2006 for details.
70
Money and Banking
their prescribed credit limits with the domestic banking industry. This is the reason why the
deceleration in credit demand is concentrated only in a few industries.
Interestingly, the sectors where the credit

Figure 5.19: Herfindahl Index of Credit Concentration
demand remained weak during FY07 0.32 0.32
traditionally have a relatively large share in All sectors Manufacturing
overall bank credit (for instance, the major 0.30 0.30
categories of textile sector, including spinning
0.28 0.28
and made-up textile). As a result, banks got an
opportunity to diversify their credit portfolio. 0.26 0.26
H-index
The credit diversification in various sectors of
0.24 0.24
the economy is visible from declining values of
the Herfindahl index of credit concentration 0.22 0.22
(see Figure 5.19). In addition to the declining
0.20 0.20
credit demand from the traditional sectors, the
Jun03
Jun05
Jun06
Jun07
Jun 04
Jun03
Jun05
Jun06
Jun07
Jun 04
declining concentration also reflects the
emergence of credit demand from various new
sectors in the recent years including
telecommunication (with the initiation of new
television and radio channels), power sector (to start new developmental projects to meet the energy
requirements of the growing economy), construction sector, and the agriculture sector where the
annual agricultural disbursements surpassed the annual credit target for FY07.
It is also worth noting that the level of Herfindahl index not only declined in aggregate terms but it
has also significantly declined within the manufacturing sector showing a diversification of credit in
industries like chemical, basic metals, paper and paper board and food and beverages industries.
Box 5.7: Slowdown in Credit Growth: Interest Rate Channel Vs the Bank Lending Channel
The credit channel, on the other hand, influences the supply side of credit through two sub-channels: (1) borrowers‟ net
worth channel; and (2) banks‟ lending channel.
According to borrowers‟ net worth channel, the increase in interest rates raises the financial expenses of the borrowers and
thus reduces their net worth. This depresses the value of collateral and increases the credit risk of the borrower. Banks‟
lending channel mainly reflects the Central Banks‟ liquidity absorptions from the banking system through OMOs or reserve
requirements, for instance, that restricts the availability of loan-able funds with the banks.
Since the tight monetary posture in last two years did not adversely impact the growth momentum of the economy while
curbing the inflationary pressures, the corporate sector has continued to perform impressively. The net sales and profitability
have remained intact despite a rise in financial expenses and energy costs. As such, the net worth of the corporate sector
increased further, well depicted in an impressive showing of corporate stocks.
Bank lending channel also does not seem to be working despite heavy absorptions by the SBP through OMOs as well as
reserve requirements. The huge foreign exchange influx in both the public as well as private sector and the fiscal expansion
have avoided any significant drain of liquidity in the inter-bank market. In addition, the increase in banks‟ paid up capital to
meet the new minimum capital requirements as well as increased profitability of banks have further added liquidity in the
banking system. This is evident in a decline in credit to deposit ratio and a rather sharp decline in credit to deposits plus
capital ratio of the banking system in H2-FY07.
Therefore, it is the interest rate channel that appeared to have slowed down the private sector credit. This is also evident
from Figure 5.7.1 which shows that in most of the sectors, corporates usually substitute bank debt through retaining profits
in businesses when the interest rate increases. As a result there exists a negative relationship between debt to equity ratio
and weighted average lending rates in the economy in most of the sectors. The same phenomenon does not hold true in the
case of cotton textile, however. This is because, being the export oriented sector, this sector is provided with the subsidy in
the form of export finance scheme. Therefore, when the interest rates rise in the economy, the level of subsidy is also
increased, providing them more incentive to borrow from banks. Since the cotton textile constitutes the bulk of business
sector in Pakistan, the very same relationship is reflected in the overall borrowing pattern.
71
Figure 5.7.1: Relationship b/w Corporate Leverage & WALR (1988-2005)

500
Overall Cotton Textile Other Textile
350
200
debt to equity ratios
50
6 9 12 15 18 6 9 12 15 18 6 9 12 15 18
500
Sugar Cement Engineering
350
200
50
6 9 12 15 18 6 9 12 15 18 6 9 12 15 18
Weighted average lending rates
Credit supply and bank concentration

Although the SBP kept the liquidity conditions Figure 5.20: Dynamics of Credit Expansion
tight in the inter-bank market throughout Volume Growth
FY06 FY07 FY06 FY07
FY07, the impact on banks‟ ability to lend was 200
weaker by a number of factors such as increase 100
150 80
in banks‟ paid up capital, more than required
billion Rs
60
percent
100
capital adequacy of banks, increase in cash
40
recoveries of NPLs and the internal cash 50
20
generation through increased profitability (see 0
0
Box 5.8). -50 -20
Islamic
Private
Privatized
Specialized
Public Sector
Merged
Foreign
Public Sector
Islamic
Foreign
Merged
Specialized
Privatized
Private
However, the continued process of mergers
and acquisitions, up-gradation of the risk
management systems in a few banks and a
slight deterioration in credit quality have
Banks' Contribution Herfindahl Index of Credit
prevented a few banks from aggressive Concentration Across Banks
lending. The banks that registered most of the FY06 FY07
slowdown in credit supply included those 50 0.070

40 0.069
banks which traditionally have the largest
30 0.067
share in aggregate credit supply. Therefore,
H-Index
percent
20 0.066
along-with the decreasing credit concentration
10 0.064
in various sectors of the economy, bank-wise
0 0.063
credit concentration has also declined during -10 0.062
FY07 (see Figure 5.20).
Public Sector
Islamic
Merged
Foreign
Specialized
Privatized
Private
0.060
FY05
FY06
FY07
In particular, the decline in concentration has

mainly stemmed from a slowdown in credit
growth of large privatized banks. Most of
these banks were involved in upgrading the risk management processes within their institution,
especially improving the credit assessment and monitoring systems during FY07.
In addition to the privatized banks, the banks that merged during FY07 also slowed down their
lending activities. Moreover, the lending activities of foreign banks though decelerated but remained
72
Money and Banking
high at 19.3 percent during FY07. The slowdown visible in foreign banks‟ lending activities was
caused mainly by the decline in demand for consumer loans, since a large part of the loan portfolio of
foreign banks is comprised of consumer loan products.
The remaining banking groups including private sector banks, public sector banks, Islamic banks and
specialized banks have increased their lending activities during FY07. In specific terms, the credit
growth exhibited by the public sector banks was impressive at 23.3 percent over an already high FY06
growth of 21.6 percent. Finally, the Islamic banks also doubled their private sector lending following
the opening up of new banks in the group during FY06 and FY07.
Box 5.8: The Capital Channel: A Relatively New Channel in Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
The role of bank capital has been largely ignored in the monetary policy as Friedman (1991) suggested that „most
economists have regarded the fact that banks hold capital as at best a macroeconomic irrelevance and at worst a pedagogical
inconvenience.” However, following the adoption of Basle Accord in 1988 by the G-7 countries, bank capital has become
extremely important from banks‟ operational and regulatory perspectives. Capital adequacy requirements, in particular, have
gained sufficient significance in explaining the banks‟ lending behaviors.
When the bank equity is at or below the regulatory requirements for most of the banks in the system, the banks can not
expand lending without raising additional capital. Since issuing the equity is a costlier task, the monetary policy will not
have major effect on credit expansion. In specific terms, with binding capital requirements, any increase in availability of
reserves will not increase private sector credit rather the additional liquidity will be placed in assets that do not carry capital
requirements, for instance, government securities. As such, the bank lending channel is weakened with binding capital
requirements. In addition, even when the current capital requirements are not binding, low-capital bank may optimally
forego the profitable private sector lending in order to lower the risk of future capital inadequacies.
For instance, the capital adequacy requirements, among other factors, are often cited as responsible for the credit crunch in
US during early 1990s. Bernanke and Lown (1991) showed that the shortage of equity capital limited banks‟ ability to
extend loans and therefore used the term „capital crunch‟ to refer the resulting recession. Similarly, Udell and Berger (1994)
termed the capital adequacy requirements as regulatory tax on banks‟ lending activities since capital is more expensive to
raise compared to bank deposits. They suggested that the aggregate credit reallocation or the credit crunch is expected to be
stronger when (1) banks below the risk based standards are large in number; and (2) greater proportion of assets are held by
credit deficient banks.
Nishiyama and Okada (2006) empirically examined whether the decline in bank loans in Japan in the late 1990s was caused
by the banks‟ downward adjustments of loan supply (a “credit crunch”) in response to capital losses. Estimating the new
lending supply as a non-linear function of the capital-to-asset ratio, they found that the forward-looking banks avoid failing
to meet regulatory capital requirements in the future that causes “credit crunch”.
Nag and Das (2002) assessed the impact of capital requirements on flow of credit to business sector by the Indian public
sector banks. Their model based analysis of credit growth and simple decomposition analysis of growth in asset portfolio
corroborated that in the post reform period, the Indian public sector banks shifted their assets in a way to reduce capital
requirements that had a dampening effect on credit supply.
Barrell and Gottschalk (2006) showed that the changes in capital adequacy ratio in Brazil and Mexico may have negative
effect in households, firms and governments by raising lending rates and decreasing bank loans. They found that in Brazil,
public sector finance may expand following the increase in CAR in detriment to private sector lending.
Source:
1. Barrell, R and Gottschalk.S. (2006). “Impacts of capital adequacy requirement on emerging market”, National Institute
of Economic and Social Research.
2. Berger, A.N and G.F.Udell. (1994). “Did risk-based capital allocate bank credit and cause a „credit crunch‟ in the
United States?” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 26(03):585-625.
3. Bernanke, B.S and C.S. Lown. (1991). “The Credit Crunch.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No.2:205-239.
4. Nag.K.A and A.Das. (2002). “Credit growth and response to capital requirements: evidence from Indian public sector
banks”, Economic and Political Weekly pp. 3661-3668.
Trend in Various Loan Products

The slowdown in private sector loans was contributed by both the business sector as well as personal
sector loans, but the slowdown in personal sector loans was much sharper.
73
Business sector loans

Business sector loans during FY07 decelerated moderately from 19.7 percent in FY06 to 15.4 percent
in FY07 (see Table 5.4). The slowdown was visible in working capital loans and trade related loans,
as the fixed investment loans registered higher growth during FY07 (see Figure 5.21).
Table 5.4: Growth in Business Sector Loans

percent
Trade finance Working capital Fixed investment
FY06 FY07 FY06 FY07 FY06 FY07
I. Private Sector (Business) 14.3 8.4 22.5 12.2 18.5 25.6
A. Agriculture, hunting and forestry 846.2 -92.3 8.3 18.3 -9.3 -0.6
B. Manufacturing 12.8 11.2 19.2 10.6 23.4 13.1
3) Manufacture of textiles 16.8 3.9 22.6 -5.6 6.9 6.0
Manufacturing less textiles 7.1 22.5 16.6 23.9 41.5 19.1
a. Spinning of fibres 9.0 10.8 18.5 -15.4 -8.0 7.2
C. Electricity, gas and water supply 125.5 -67.8 30.4 159.5 14.9 100.8
D. Construction 475.5 -38.9 33.2 11.5 23.5 88.3
E. Commerce and trade 13 6.1 35.9 2.8 63.1 78.7
F. Transport and communications -37.7 198.5 50.8 39.6 23.6 25.2
1. Fixed Investment Figure 5.21: Composition of Growth in Business Sector Loans

The aggregate fixed investment loans to the Trade finance Fixed investments Working capital
business sector registered a remarkably high 35
growth of 25.6 percent compared to a growth
30
of 18.5 percent during FY06. Major increases
in the fixed investment loans were visible in 25
percentage points
power sector, telecommunication sector and

20
the sugar industry. Fixed investment in the
telecommunication sector increased 15
substantially by 41.8 percent during FY07
10
compared to a growth of 26.7 percent in FY06.
The major factors responsible for such a high 5
growth in fixed investment in the 0
telecommunication sector include: (1)
FY05 FY06 FY07
Expansion in the network of the existing
cellular companies in Pakistan; and (2)
increased investments in the sector as licenses Figure 5.22: Import of Textile Machinery
issued to new television and radio channels.
1000
Similarly, the high growth in fixed investment
loans to power sector reflects the expansion in
800
power generating and distributing companies.
million US$
The slowdown in fixed investment loans in the 600

textiles industry was caused principally by the
capacity enhancement in the sector in recent 400
years, especially under Textile Vision 2005, as
also evident in increase in import of textile 200
machinery in recent years (see Figure 5.22).
In addition, Textile manufacturers also did not 0
make substantial investments during FY07 in FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
the expectations of relief package in the textile
policy of the government.
74
Money and Banking
2. Working Capital Loans

Growth in working capital finance during Figure 5.23: Contribution in Growth of Working Capital Loans
FY07 slowed down to 12.2 percent compared Agriculture Power
to a growth of 22.5 percent during the Construction Telecommunications
preceding year. Most of the slowdown was Manufacturing Commerce
visible in manufacturing sector and commerce Others
& trade sector (see Figure 5.23). While the

slowdown in commerce & trade sector was FY07
caused mainly by lower growth in imports and
relatively depressed activities in the sale of
automobiles & motorcycles, the slowdown in
the manufacturing sector was concentrated in FY06
the textile sector. The latter point is evident
from a robust growth of 23.9 percent in
0 5 10 15 20 25
working capital loans to manufacturing sector
excluding textiles during FY07 compared with percentage points
the growth of 16.6 percent in the preceding
year.
Within textile sector, most of the slowdown was visible in the spinning sector which does not have
access to the concessional finance. This slowdown was caused mainly by a sharp deceleration in
export growth, relatively low growth in cotton prices in FY07 and the increase in interest rates.
Working capital loans to rest of the manufacturing sector showed mixed trend. Almost 14 industries
experienced a credit growth between 20 to 80 percent compared to 9 industries during FY06. While
the increase in interest rates played its role in restricting overall credit demand, the increase in raw
material prices has caused an increase in financing requirements in few industries. For instance,
higher growth in working capital loans to fertilizer, rice processing and basic iron and steel industries
was caused in principal by increase in prices of raw material related with these industries.16 The high
raw material prices in turn reflect, in addition to the pass through of international prices, the
persistence of aggregate demand pressures in the economy.
Such pressures may also be found in the cement sector where the working capital growth exhibited a
strong growth of 55.8 percent during FY07 over an already high growth of 50.3 percent during FY06.
This consistent performance is explained mainly by: (1) the strong cement demand for the
reconstruction activities in the earthquake affected areas; (2) growing construction sector demands of
the domestic economy;17 and (3) increase in exports to Gulf countries, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Finally, the growth in working capital loans in the agriculture sector remained very strong during
FY07 because of the sector‟s overall high growth performance and a sharp rise in fertilizer prices,
despite subsidy on DAP. It is expected that the growth in agriculture credit will accelerate further
going forward as the SBP is taking significant measures to remove credit supply constraints in
agriculture as well as number of other sectors (see Box 5.9).
Box 5.9: The Restructuring of NCCC: Increased Focus on Removing the Credit Constraints from the Economy
The annual assessment of the credit requirements of government and private sector used to be done by the National Credit
Consultative Council (NCCC), since its institutionalization in September 1972. Until the financial sector reforms of 1990s,
16
The pig iron prices in the domestic market registered a growth of 48.5 percent (YoY) during FY07 compared to a growth
of 2.6 during FY06. Seed distribution during FY07 registered a growth of 45.6 percent during FY06 compared to a growth of
19.6 percent during FY05.
17
Value addition in the construction sector registered a strong growth of 17.2 percent during FY07 compared to a growth of
5.7 percent during FY06.
75
the NCCC was responsible to draw up the annual credit plan while keeping the annual monetary expansion in accordance
with the targets of real GDP and inflation set by the Government. However, after the abolition of credit ceilings and other
credit controls in the aftermath of financial sector reforms, the regulatory role of NCCC was changed to a consultative body.
Being represented by the all stakeholders of the economy including the SBP, federal/provincial governments, commercial
banks, representative of chambers of commerce, industry, and agriculture, the NCCC used to prepare and revise the credit
plan after incorporating suggestions/recommendations of all the stakeholders.
It is important to mention here that the role of NCCC in both the pre and post reform period has been limited to prescribing
the volume of credit expansion in the economy. For instance, in the period of credit controls, the NCCC used to work out
the credit allocations to the private sector on the basis of investment and production targets for different sectors specified in
the annual development plan. Similarly, in the post-reform period, especially after the phasing out of IMF PRGF program,
the credit plan exercise was limited to aligning the credit targets with broad macroeconomic targets. In specific terms,
government budgetary requirements and the increase in net foreign assets were both treated as exogenous variable. Hence
the burden of accommodating the overall money supply as per the targeted GDP and inflation falls on the private sector
credit.
In this perspective, there was an emerging need to improve the credit demand and supply conditions in the economy by
removing impediments in credit availability and widening the access to credit for private sector. This was important because
the dynamics of financial infrastructure has changed drastically, especially following the growing emphasis on non-
conventional financing tools including the infrastructure & housing finance, Islamic finance, etc.
With this background, the NCCC was restructured as the Private Sector Credit Advisory Council (PSCAC). The defined
objective of PSCAC is to suggest ways and means to widen the access to credit for private sector to promote economic
development in Pakistan. The functions of the council include: (1) reviewing the recent developments related to credit
availability to private sector; (2) identifying impediments in credit availability and disbursement for various purposes
including project finance, working capital finance, infrastructure and housing finance, consumer finance, SME finance,
microfinance, trade finance, Islamic finance and other sectors; as well as (3) reviewing the discussion/proposal of agriculture
credit advisory committee (ACAC) related to agriculture credit.
The schedule of PSCAC‟s meetings has been designed in accordance with the private sector credit cycle. The agenda of the
PSCAC‟s meetings is to focus on the issues pertaining to private sector credit requirements. While the private sector
representative will bring to light the credit demand related issues, banks‟ representatives will come up with credit
disbursement related issues. In addition, various specialized departments in SBP including the Agriculture Credit
Department (ACD), SME Department (SMED), Micro Finance Department (MFD), Islamic Banking Department (IBD,
Infrastructure & Housing Finance Department (IHFD), etc will be involved in formulating the strategy papers on credit
supply issues. These papers would constitute not only the issues related to demand and supply of credit and the gap analysis;
but will also be suggesting the strategies to be adopted by the SBP and the coordinating activities of the stakeholders. These
papers would then be discussed in PSCAC meetings for further consultation from the stakeholders.
3. Trade Finance
In line with the decelerating trade volume, the Figure 5.24: Growth in Trade Finance
growth in trade-related loans continued to Trade finance Trade volume
40
slowdown to 8.4 percent during FY07
compared to a growth of 14.3 percent during
FY06 (see Figure 5.24). Most of the 30
slowdown was visible in the export finance.18
percent growth
Within the export finance schemes, although,

the loans under EFS registered a robust growth 20
of 14.4 percent in FY07 compared with 10.6
percent in FY06, the FE-25 loans (exporters 10
only) registered substantial net retirements that
more than offset the higher growth in loans
under EFS (see Figure 5.25). This suggests 0
that the exporters only substituted their stock of FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
oustanding debt under FE-25 scheme with that
of EFS.
18
Of the total decline of 5.9 percentage points in trade finance, deceleration in import finance contributed only 1.3
percentage points.
76
Money and Banking
Nevertheless, the deceleration in trade finance during FY07 is significantly lower than that in FY06.
In specific terms, during FY06, the rise in interest rates on EFS lending had caused a sharp slowdown
in EFS loans whereas the upward pressures on exchange rate had caused a sharp slowdown in FE-25
loans. Therefore, the exporters mainly financed working capital requirements through internal cash
generation. In FY07, however, the sharp increase in subsidy provided under the EFS scheme did
provide some incentive to exporters to borrow from the banking system.19
Figure 5.25: Composition of Trade Finance
What is evident from the trend in borrowings
EFS Other than EFS Import finance
under EFS in the preceding two years is the
fact that the exporters‟ reliance on EFS
FY07
depends only upon the magnitude of subsidy
provided. As such, while the possibility of
mis-allocation of these loans due to the FY06
distortions in interest rate structure can not be
ruled out, the said scheme further complicates
FY05
the monetary policy conduct by inflating the
reserve money growth and increasing the
quasi-fiscal cost. In addition, empirical studies FY04
also suggest that the EFS scheme did not play
its expected role in the promotion of export -10 0 10 20 30 40
growth in the economy (see Box 5.10). percentage points
Box 5.10: The Adverse Implications of Export Finance Scheme

The export finance scheme has a number of adverse implications for the economy. Foremost is its significant contribution in
reserve money growth, which translates into overall monetary expansion. Thus, given that the SBP is currently pursuing
contractionary monetary policy, the provision of incentive is posing difficulties for effective monetary management and has
a potential to dilute the impact of monetary tightening. It is important to stress that this high reserve money growth in FY07
is expected to spur broad money growth and thus inflation in coming years. This implies that monetary policy will have to
be kept tight longer than if EFS was not present.
Secondly, the availability of refinance by SBP provides commercial banks sufficient Rupee liquidity thereby relieving banks
from the need to mobilize more Rupee deposits. This in turn translates into lower return on deposits. In fact, the lower
deposit rates benefit commercial banks as this means higher spread for the banking system. However, in the longer term,
lower return on deposits could potentially lead to disintermediation of financial resources from the banking system and lower
saving rates in the economy.
Thirdly, it can be argued that these incentive schemes have distorted the overall interest rate structure in the economy and
therefore impeded the market-based resource allocation. In fact, as incentive schemes are open to rent seeking, these have
resulted in significant financial loss to the country. The empirical evidence to this argument is provided in a study by Bilal
Zia that analyzes the impact and allocation of financial incentives such as subsidized credit to exporting firms by using loan
level data from the export sector in Pakistan.20 According to the findings of the study, the exports of publicly listed and
corporate group firms remain unaffected following the removal of subsidized credit. In fact, publicly listed firms make no
significant adjustments to their balance sheets, and only their profits are reduced. This indicates that publicly listed and
corporate group firms are not financially constrained. However, according to the study, nearly half of all subsidized loans
are assigned to such firms, implying a substantial misallocation of credit.
Finally, the impact of these incentive schemes on export performance is also debatable. The study by Nadeem-ul-Haque and
Ali Kemal analyzes the impact of export finance scheme on export growth.21 According to their findings, after controlling
for the impact of foreign currency financing available to exporters, the export financing scheme had a negative effect on
exports over the long run. Thus, subsidy scheme has not been effective in achieving its objective of increasing exports.
19
The slowdown in FE-25 loans despite a stable exchange rate reflects the widened spread between effective cost of loans
under EFS and FE-25 loans.
20
Bilal Zia, „Export Incentives, Financial Constraints, and the (Mis) Allocation of Credit: Micro-Level Evidence from
Subsidized Export Loans‟, Forthcoming, Journal of Financial Economics.
21
Nadeem-ul-Haq and Ali Kemal (2007), „Impact of Export Subsidies on Pakistan‟s Exports‟, Working Paper no. 26 of the
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, 2007.
77
Going forward, the increase in interest rates in August 2007 is not expected to put significant upward
pressures on interest rates due to an expected weak transmission of discount rate on kibor (see Box
5.11). In addition, the SBP measures to remove the constraints in credit supply to the economy, the
high international commodity prices and expected initiation of major power projects during FY08 are
likely to strengthen the credit demand from the economy. However, the limited liquidity available
through SBP interventions as well as reduced participation of SBP in providing liquidity to the export
sector may keep tightened the credit supply conditions. On balance, therefore, the SBP will continue
to drain excess liquidity in the interbank while ensuring that the sufficient liquidity is available to
avoid significant derailing of the growth momentum.
Box 5.11: Pass-through of Discount Rate on Corporate Lending Rates

The policy rates transmit to the corporate lending rates through two channels: (1) interbank lending rate; and (2) Karachi
inter-bank offered rate (KIBOR).
1. Through interbank lending rates

The inter-bank lending rate depends on two factors; (1) liquidity in the inter-bank market that includes both the liquid
loanable funds as well as other temporary liquidity; and (2) nature of transactions (call or repo). While liquidity in the inter-
bank market is mostly managed by the SBP, the nature of the transaction depends upon the availability of tradable securities
in the inter-bank market. The higher the volume of tradeable securities in the inter-bank market, larger will be the
concentration of repo transactions, and lower will be the aggregate inter-bank lending rates. Thus, despite an increase in
discount rate (that would provide room for inter-bank lending rates to move up and increase the borrowing costs for the
banks), the dominance of repo transactions among the aggregate inter-bank transactions (amid ample availability of
government securities in the inter-bank market) might disallow significant upward pressures on weighted average lending
rates.
2. Through KIBOR
Corporate lending rate is benchmarked by kibor (of relevant tenor) which in turn depends upon inter-bank lending rates as
well as expectations of liquidity in the inter-bank market.
That is why the relationship between kibor and policy rates does not show a consistent pattern. For instance, throughout
FY06, while the discount rate was kept unchanged, the 6 month kibor continued trending upwards. This was mainly due to
increase in advances to deposit ratio (ADR), a decline in share of repo transactions in aggregate inter-bank transactions and
the expectations of liquidity constraints in the inter-bank market.
The increase in discount rate of 50 basis points during Figure 5.11.1: Impact of Discount Rate on KIBOR
July 2006 led to an exaggerated increase of over a 100 6M KIBOR Discount rate
basis points in 6 month kibor (see Figure 5.11.1). This 11.0
was mainly because the increase in discount rate came
along with the increase in CRR and SLR requirements. 10.5
As a result, the inter-bank was uncertain of the actual
impact on liquidity. However, soon after the increase, the 10.0
percent
kibor started its downtrend and continued to decline till

end of FY07. It is interesting to note that by end-July 9.5
2007, the 6 month kibor had reached to end-July 2006
level when the discount rate was increased. It must be 9.0
noticed that the downtrend in kibor steepened in H2-
FY07 further when the ADR reached to all time low. In 8.5
addition, the significant increase in NFA and the
18-Oct-05
19-Oct-06
31-May-06
1-Jun-07
18-Mar-06
22-Mar-07
12-Sep-05
11-Feb-06
14-Sep-06
15-Feb-07
25-Apr-06
27-Apr-07
9-Jan-07
6-Aug-05
9-Aug-06
2-Jul-05
5-Jul-06
7-Jul-07
31-Dec-05
26-Nov-05
30-Nov-06
11-Aug-07
expectations that the inflows would continue to grease the

inter-bank market, further brought in a downtrend in
kibor.
The continuation of these expectations in FY08, therefore, is likely to prevent significant increases in the kibor. This
phenomenon is already evident from the fact that though SBP raised the discount rate in August 2007 further to 10 percent,
the market expectations were maintained for the interest rates peaking out. This is evident in a relatively weak response of
kibor to the 50 basis points increase in discount rate.
Box 5.12: The Extent of the Relationship between Kibor and WALR
The movements in kibor are considered to be the harbinger of the movements in WALR. This is simply because the kibor is
used as a benchmark for determining the corporate lending rates. Since corporate sector lending constitutes the bulk of
aggregate bank lending in Pakistan, the WALR follows closely the trend in kibor. Having said this, the relationship between
78
Money and Banking
changes in kibor and changes in WALR showed that the relationship between these two variables appears to be non-linear.
In simple terms, changes of very high magnitude in kibor
Table 5.12.1: Impact of Changes in Kibor on Changes in WALR
disturb the linear relationship between kibor and WALR.
Dependent Variable: Change in WALR
The reason is straightforward. The exorbitant movements
in kibor usually result in widening spread between kibor Method: Least Squares
and repo which is typically viewed as a crude proxy of Included observations: 40 after adjustments (Feb 04 - Jun-07)
spread between risk based return and the risk free return. Eq 01 Eq 02
In the absence of major changes in credit risk in the Variable Coeff t-stats Coeff t-stats
economy, this widened spread suggests that such changes D(WALRI(-1)) 0.46 3.55
in kibor are not based on macroeconomic fundamentals of D(WALRI(-2)) 0.26 2.08 0.58 7.33
the economy and could probably appear due to
D(KIBOR) 0.09 2.92 0.07 2.12
uncertainties in liquidity flows in the inter-bank market.
In this perspective, wild movements in kibor are usually D(KIBOR(-1) 0.09 2.74
considered as temporary and therefore are not typically D(KIBOR(-2)) 0.09 2.83 0.15 3.43
translated in WALR. D(KIBOR(-2)*dummy -0.11 -1.70
R-square 0.74 0.72
As shown in the Figure 5.12.1, the spread between kibor Durbin-Watson stat 1.88 1.67
and repo rates hovers around 0.85 percentage points.
Although there appear some wild movements in the
spread but eventually the spread comes back to the Figure
Figure5.12.1:
5.11.2: Spread b/w
average. Interestingly, in the very same periods, the Relationship with Spread b/w
6m kibor & 6m Repo WALR & 6m Kibor
relationship between kibor and lending rates appears Spread
weak. As such, there exists a negative relationship Average spread
4
between the spread between kibor and repo and the spread 2.0
spread b/w WALR & Kibor

between kibor and WALR. This suggested that the 3
average spread between kibor and repo plays an important 1.6
percentage points
role in developing the relationship between kibor and 2

WALR. 1.2
1
Table 5.12.1 provides empirical evidence to this notion 0.8
0
wherein changes in WALR are determined by the past
movements in WALR, present and past changes in kibor. 0.4
-1
The equation was further augmented by introducing a
dummy variable that takes the value of 1 when the 0.0 -2
deviation from mean of the spread between kibor and repo
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

goes above the average, and the value of 0 when it Spread b/w kibor & repo
remains below the average. The said dummy variable
was then interacted with the changes in kibor. As
expected, the sign of interacting dummy appeared negative suggesting that if the changes in kibor exceed the average spread
between kibor and repo rates, the impact of kibor on WALR declines.
Consumer Loans
The growth in the consumer loans slowed
Figure 5.26: Consumer Loans
down to 19.5 percent during FY07 compared
to a growth of 43.8 percent in FY06; the Volume As percent of private loans (RHS)
lowest growth during the preceding four years. 120 17

Nevertheless, the share of consumer loan in
100
the overall loans to private sector increased 15
slightly to reach 15.8 percent during FY07 80
billion Rupees
compared to 15.5 percent during FY06 (see 12

percent
Figure 5.26). 60
9
The major factors responsible for a slower 40
growth in consumer loans included: (1) 7
20
increase in lending rates; (2) high credit
standards following the increase in NPLs to 0 4
advances ratio within the consumer loans FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
category (see Figure 5.27); (3) restrained
lending by a few commercial banks in order to streamline their risk management systems as per the
79
international best practices; and (4) mandatory use of credit profile of the borrowers through the use
of credit information bureau (CIB) of the SBP.
Therefore, the weakness in consumer loans Figure 5.27: NPLs to Loan Ratio in Consume r Finance
during FY07 was broad-based as all the major FY05 FY06 FY07
categories exhibited a slowdown. However, 8
the largest deceleration was visible in car
financing, the growth of which slowed down
6
to 7.8 percent during FY07 from its
phenomenal growth of 48.5 percent during
percent
FY06 (see Figure 5.28). 4
In addition to the supply side factors, a

2
relatively saturated automobiles market also
resulted in overall slowdown in automobile
sales in the country during FY07. Moreover, 0
the mandatory requirement of installation of Credit cards Auto loans Mortgage Personal
tracking devices for car financing by certain loans loans
car insurance companies has increased the
effective cost of automobile loans, thus further
Figure 5.28: Composition of Consumer Finance
restraining the credit demand.22
Mortgage loans Auto finance Credit cards
Consumer durables Personal loans
As far as the housing loans are concerned,
banks have been very cautious in their lending
FY07
strategy in housing sector. This is evident
from the fact that out of 39 commercial banks
in the country, only 14 banks have an exposure FY06
of (over) Rs 1.0 billion in the housing sector.
As such, at present, the banks‟ housing finance FY05

portfolio is far below the limit prescribed by
the Central Bank. In specific terms, while the
SBP has allowed banks to limit their exposure -10 30 70 110
billion Rupees
in housing finance to 10 percent of the net
loans, most of the banks did not exhaust even
half of the limit (see Figure 5.29). Figure 5.29: Banks' Exposure in Housing Finance
Actual Limit prescribed by SBP
12
This limited exposure of the banks in housing
finance is caused mainly by: 10
1. Lack of expertise and resources in
8
domestic banks to exploit the business
percent
potential in this area. 6

2. Due to the average short term maturity
of bank deposits, banks can not sustain 4
leveraging their deposit base in the 2
long run. This is also evident in
average maturity of housing loans of 0
10 to 15 years, despite the maximum
BAF
NBP
BOP
ABN
MCB
ACBL
SCB
MBL
Citi
UBL
HBL
FBL
PBL
Union
22
To remove this restraint, a few commercial banks have started providing installation of car tracking devices to their
customers free of cost.
80
Money and Banking
allowable maturity of 25 years by the SBP.

3. The construction loans are more difficult to finance due to the absence of verifiable collateral.
This is evident from the composition of total housing loans where construction loans
constitute only 19.8 percent.
5.3 Financial Soundness Indicators

While the overall monetary indicators raised a few concerns from inflationary perspectives, financial
soundness continued to exhibit improvement. More importantly, though the rise in interest rates did
create some impact on the quality of loans, the stringent provisioning requirements as well as
increased capital requirements did not allow the impact of loan quality on financial stability of the
banking institutions. Not only, did banks remain adequately capitalized but the overall asset quality
measured in terms of NPLs to loan ratio (net of provisioning) continued to decline. As such, the
performance of the domestic banking industry continued to exhibit improvements and especially
remained at par with the peer countries in the South Asian region (see Box 5.13).
Box 5.13: Performance of Pakistan Banking Industry Compared with Other Asian Countries
The landscape of Pakistan‟s banking industry has changed altogether since the financial sector reforms 1991 onwards. At
present, the financial soundness of the banking industry, as measured by the capital adequacy and asset quality indicators, is
almost at par with the peer countries. Table 5.13.1: Financial Soundness Indicators
in percent
Capital to risk weighted assets ratio which was amongst the
lowest in the region during 2001, has increased sharply and 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
the current ratio of 12.7 percent exhibits that the domestic Capital to risk weighted assets
banking institutions are adequately capitalized. More Bangladesh1 6.7 7.5 8.4 8.8 7.3 8.0
importantly, the increase in CAR during the last five years
India 2 11.4 11.9 12.9 13.4 12.8 12.4
came along with a robust credit growth. Specifically, the
banks achieved a higher CAR by raising capital instead of Malaysia 3 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.3 13.7 12.7
reducing risk weighted assets. Among all the Asia Pakistan 2
8.8 8.8 8.5 10.5 11.3 12.7
countries reported in Table 5.13.1, India, Malaysia and Korea 2 11.7 11.2 11.1 12.1 13 13.3
Indonesia were the only countries that observed a slight
Thailand 3 13.3 13 13.4 12.4 13.2 14.3
decline in CAR during 2006. While the sharp credit growth
during the year was responsible for decline in CAR in these Indonesia 2 18.2 20.1 22.3 19.4 19.3 19.2
the countries, the decline in CAR in India was also NPL to advances
contributed by other structural factors. These included the Bangladesh4 31.5 28.1 22.1 17.6 13.6 13.2
application of capital charge for market risk March 2006
India 5 11.4 10.4 8.8 7.2 5.2 3.3
onwards and the increase in risk weights for personal loans,
real estate and capital market exposures. The decline in Malaysia 3 17.8 15.9 13.9 11.7 9.6 8.7
CAR in Malaysia stemmed mainly from sharp fluctuations Pakistan 2 23.4 21.8 17 11.6 8.3 7.7
in the net open foreign currency position (NOP) (following Korea 2
3.4 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.9
from the adoption of flexible exchange rate regime in
Thailand 2 11.5 16.5 13.5 11.9 9.1 8.9
2005).
Indonesia 2 31.9 24 19.4 14.2 15.6 16
Non-performing loans to advances ratio in Pakistan has also Provisioning to NPL
improved substantially in recent years but is still higher Bangladesh1 -- -- 18.3 18.9 25.3 26.3
than India and Korea. However, this high ratio does not
India 5 -- -- 46.4 56.6 60.3 58.9
indicate a concern for financial soundness since most of the
NPLs have been adequately provided for. As shown in the Malaysia 3 37.6 38.1 38.9 41 45.4 50.1
Table 5.13.1, provisioning has already been done for 77.8 Pakistan 2 54.7 60.6 63.9 70.4 76.7 77.8
percent of the total NPLs which is indeed quite significant Korea -- -- -- -- -- --
when compared to other economies in Asia. As such, the Thailand 2 47.1 62.9 72.8 79.8 83.7 79.4
net NPLs to net loan ratio in Pakistan at 1.6 percent is very
much compatible to 1.2 percent in India at end 2006. Indonesia4 -- 130 137.5 138.1 60.1 --
Note: Superscripts show the data for the following months.
1
June, 2Sep, 3Nov, 4Dec, 5 Mar
The decline in NPLs to advance ratio in India during the
year 2006 was caused mainly by increased recovery and decline in fresh slippages. An important aspect of higher recoveries
in India is the establishment of Asset reconstruction Company (India) limited in 2003 with the objective of „focused
management‟ and „maximization of NPLs‟ recovery‟ which has provided a major boost to the efforts of NPLs‟ recovery. In
Malaysia also, the higher interest rates and inflationary pressures in the economy did not appear to have weakened the debt
servicing capacity of both the households and businesses mainly on the back of sustained encouraging economic
environment, amidst progressive strengthening of risk management practices and infrastructure by banking institutions.
81
Source:
Global Financial Stability Report April 2007, International Monetary Fund.
Reports of trend and progress in India 2005-2006, Reserve Bank of India.
Financial Stability Report Bank Indonesia, March 2007, Bank Negara Malaysia.
1. Financial Allocative Efficiency

It is generally believed that the utilization Figure 5.30: Indicators of Financial Efficiency
efficiency for a given amount of credit is
PSC/ GDP-RHS PSC/M2 PSC / NDA
higher for the private sector compared to the
85 30
government. On the basis of this, private
sector credit (PSC) to M2 ratio is widely used
as an indicator of financial allocative 75 25
efficiency. It appears that during FY07,
financial efficiency has deteriorated slightly as
percent
percent
65 20
evident from declining PSC to M2 ratio (see
Figure 5.30). However, this decline was
caused entirely by a sharp increase in share of 55 15
NFA of the banking sector in M2. Thus, it will
be appropriate to use PSC to NDA ratio to
compare the relative allocation of banks‟ 45 10
financial sources in private sector and FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
government credit. The PSC to NDA ratio has
continued its uptrend during FY07 suggesting that the financial efficiency has increased further during
FY07.
Another widely used indicator of financial Table 5.5: Credit to GDP Ratio
efficiency is PSC to GDP ratio that measures 1996 2000 2005
the extent of economic activities that are South Asia
Pakistan 24.7 22.5 28.3
financed through the banking system. The
India 23.9 28.8 41.2
increase in PSC to GDP ratio confirms further Sri Lanka 29.9 28.8 32.8
the growing level of financial intermediation in BD 21.6 24.7 31.7
the economy. However, it must be noticed that South East Asia
the PSC to GDP ratio, though increased, is still Indonesia 55.5 19.9 24.6*
lower than most of the economies in the Asian Korea 57.1 81.0 93.5
region (see Table 5.5). In literature we can Philippines 49.0 39.0 25.2*
find a number of reasons for variations in Malaysia 142.0 140.0 113.2*
Credit to GDP ratio across countries. Most of *2006
the variations emerge from difference in legal Source: International Financial Statistics
infrastructure, set up of information sharing institutions, financial sector development, banking
penetration, availability of credit rating agencies, recovery rates and market expansion.
2. Banking Spread
The banking spread, as measured by the difference between weighted average lending (WALR) and
deposit rates (WADR), declined slightly by 14 basis points during FY07 after following a rising trend
in the preceding three years (see Figure 5.31). More importantly, if the impact of non-remunerative
deposits is excluded from the WADR, the decline in banking spread appears more pronounced (at 50
basis points) during FY07.23
23
Although, the personal deposits continued to constitute the bulk of increase in bank deposits during FY07, the increase in
business sector deposits outpaced the increase in personal deposits. Since most of the business sector deposits are placed in
non-remunerative current account for the purpose of meeting day to day transactions, these deposits yield low returns.
82
Money and Banking
The decline in spread was caused by a sharp Figure 5.31: Banking Spread
slowdown in personal loans (that generally Excl non-remunerative deposits Aggregate spread
yield higher returns) and increase in the share 8.0
of concessionary credit during FY07 (that kept
7.5
WALR from increasing sharply). In addition,
the pass through of previous increases in policy 7.0
rate on WADR, the increase in share of fixed
percent
6.5
deposits in total bank deposits and the moral
suasion by the SBP to raise WADR had caused 6.0
an increase in deposit rates by almost all the 5.5
major banks.
5.0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-06
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
The latter is also evident in the increasing share
of high yielding deposits in aggregate bank
deposits during FY07 (see Figure 5.32). As
shown, the share of deposits mobilized at over
8 percent return in the incremental deposits has Figure 5.32: Share of Deposits Mobilized at 8.0 Percent
remained 32.0 percent on average which took (or above) Rate of Return in Total Deposits
Incremental Outstanding
the share of these deposits in outstanding
40
deposits to 23.5 percent in June 2007
compared with 11.9 percent at end-June 2006.
30
However, it must be noticed that the increase

percent
20
in policy rate during August 2007 can render
the welcome decline in banking spread during
FY07 short-lived. This concern stems from 10
asymmetric impact of policy rate on WALR
and WADR. Specifically, the delays in 0
Mar-07
Aug-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Jun-06
Jun-07
Dec-06
transmission of policy rate on WADR

Oct-06
May-07
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
(especially in times of monetary tightening)

compared with WALR widens the spread in
times of monetary tightening. This said, the
tight liquidity conditions in the inter-bank Figure 5.33: Cumulative Currency to Deposit Ratio
Deposit Growth
market August 2007 onwards, attractive returns FY06 FY07
FY06 FY07
offered by mutual funds and NSS instruments 0.34
25
and the lower CRR requirements on longer
tenor deposits will force banks to offer 20 0.33
reasonable real returns to their depositors. As 15 0.31
such, the relationship between policy rate and
percent
banking spread may not necessarily be 10 0.30

significant. 5 0.28
0 0.27
3. Liquidity with the banks
The liquidity in the banking system is gauged -5 0.25
principally by (1) the extent of deposit
Nov
Jul
Mar
May
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
Jul
May
Sep
Jan
mobilization during the period, and (2) credit

expansion relative to the deposit mobilization.
Deposit base of the banking industry increased by 20.9 percent during FY07 compared to a growth of
16.2 percent during FY06 (see Figure 5.33). Strong growth in banking sector deposits is attributable
to a number of factors including high GDP growth, high workers‟ remittances growth, more
aggressive marketing of deposit products by the banks, increases in weighted average deposit rates as
83
well as the expansion in network and usage of automatic tellers machines (that lower the need for
precautionary cash holdings).
Figure 5.34: Credit to Deposit Ratio
Advances to deposit Total credit to deposit
More importantly, the longer tenor deposits 80
registered substantial increases though most of
the increases in the deposits were visible under 76
current and savings account categories.
Indeed, the sharp growth in longer tenor 72
deposits bid well for the banking sector
percent
liquidity. The increase in fixed-longer tenor 68
deposits during FY07 was caused by the
relaxation in CRR requirements provided by
64
the SBP on longer tenor deposits which
induced banks to raise returns on these
60
accounts and increase marketing campaigns to
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
mobilize longer tenor deposits.
Credit to deposit ratio is another indicator that Figure 5.35: Dollarization in the Economy
reflects the liquidity comfort of the banking FC deposits/Total
deposits NFA to M2 ratio
system. As shown in Figure 5.34, both the FC deposits/M2
credit24 and advances to deposit ratio have
declined significantly during FY07. This 9 30
decline is mainly a result of slowdown in
8 26
overall private sector credit due to tight
percent
monetary policy stance of SBP. Furthermore, 7 22
percent
the gap between advances to deposit ratio and
6 18
the credit to deposit ratio has widened during
FY07 mainly because of increase in investment 5 14
component of the total credit.
4 10
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
4. Dollarization in the Economy
The dollarization in the economy, as measured
by the share of foreign currency deposits in
total bank deposits as well as in M2, has Figure 5.36: Earnings of Composition of Non-
declined substantially during FY07. The the Banking Sector interest Income (NII)
Other income
expectations of Rupee appreciation against the Return on assets Dividend income
US Dollar following the substantial foreign Net interest margin Fee, brokerage & forex
NII/Total income-RHS
exchange inflows and relatively higher returns 6 80 60
on Rupee deposits are the key reasons for the
declining level of dollarization in the economy 60 45
billion Rupees
4
(see Figure 5.35).
percent
percent
40 30
2
5. Profitability
20 15
Earnings of the banking industry improved
further during CY06 as evident in a continuous 0
0 0
uptrend in return on assets (ROA) (see Figure
CY02
CY03
CY04
CY05
CY06
CY04
CY02
CY03
CY05
CY06
5.36). However, the composition of banks‟

earnings was slightly different in CY06
compared with the preceding year. In specific
terms, the share of non-interest income in total income has increased slightly during CY06. This was
24
The credit includes advances, bills and investments in the private sector stocks (including shares, TFCs, etc).
84
Money and Banking
mainly on the back of (1) a sharp increase in dividend income of banks during CY06; and (2) a sharp
deceleration in net-interest income.
While the increase in dividend income of banks reflects improved earnings of the corporate sector, the
deceleration in net interest income was caused by; (1) deceleration in high yielding loans (e.g.,
personal loans) during CY06; and (2) increase in the share of fixed deposits in total bank deposits. In
addition, the delayed transmission of the previous increases in policy rate on deposit rates also
appeared to have caused an increase in interest expenses of the banking sector during CY06 (see Box
5.16).
This point can further be explained from the fact that during CY05, the increase in actual interest
expensed on deposits was caused primarily by the increase in volume of deposits. However, in CY06,
81 percent of the increase in interest expensed on deposits came from the increase in deposit rates
while the remaining 19 percent came from the increase in volume of deposits. The analysis of interest
income, however, shows that the rise in interest income during CY06 came equally from both, the
increase in volume as well as increase in interest rates.
Finally, the increase in the share of concessionary trade finance amid decelerating aggregate loans
during FY07 has further dragged down banks‟ profitability. This is evident from a decline of 10 basis
points in net interest margin during Jan-Jun 2007 compared with the corresponding period of the
preceding year (see Box 5.17).
Box 5.14: Asymmetric Impact of Changes in Policy Rate on Deposit Rates
The recent research suggests that the changes in 6-months
T-bill rates takes about 5 months to complete the pass Table 5.14.1: Impact of Benchmark Rate on WADR
through to the WALR and almost 10.1 months to complete Dependent Variable: Changes in weighted average deposit rates
the transmission to weighted average deposit rates25 In Method: Least Squares
addition, both the instantaneous and long term coefficient
Sample: 2002M10 2007M04 Included observations: 55
of WADR is considerably lower than that of WALR.
Therefore, it can be argued that the relatively weaker Coefficient Prob.
transmission of policy rate on weighted average deposit C(1) 0.94 0.00
rates has been a key factor in increasing the banking C(2) 0.06 0.16
spread in last two years.
C(3) 0.27 0.01
However, this must be noted that while the decline in C(4) 0.23 0.00
spread during monetary policy loosening was gradual, the R-square 0.63
increase in spread during tight monetary policy was rather Durbin-Watson stat 1.87
sharp. This phenomenon is explained mainly by the
asymmetric impact of changes in policy rate on deposit
rates. In simple terms, the transmission of policy rates on Table 5.14.2: Impact of Benchmark Rate on Variance of WADR
deposit rates is low in times of monetary tightening and Dependent Variable: Changes in weighted average deposit rates
high in times of monetary easing. Method: ML - ARCH
Sample: 2002M10 2007M04 Included observations: 55
These differing responses of deposit rates on policy
Coefficient Prob.
changes can be explained by a number of factors including
the structure of banking industry, transaction costs and DWADR(-1) 0.21 0.02
depositors‟ behavior. In specific terms, a high level of DWADR(-2) 0.22 0.00
concentration in the DWADR(-3) 0.15 0.00
banking industry allows banks to raise the deposit rates D(TBILL(-2)) 0.08 0.01
slowly in response to changes in policy rates and vice Variance Equation
versa. Similarly, high transaction costs discourage C 0.00 0.00
customers to switch deposits from one bank to another
RESID(-1)^2 -0.13 0.00
even if they wish to earn higher returns.
RESID(-1)^2*(RESID(-1)<0) 0.02 0.04
To capture this asymmetry in Pakistan, a simple equation GARCH(-1) 1.08 0.00
R-square 0.62
DW stat 1.89
25
See Financial Sector Assessment Report 2005 Chapter 3 for details.
85
was estimated of the form
ΔWADR= (C(1)* Δ WADR(-2)+C(2)*( Δ(TBILL(-1)))*( Δ TBILL(-1)>0)+(C(3)* Δ(WADR(-2) +C(4)* (Δ TBILL(-1)))*(

Δ TBILL(-1)<=0)
Suggesting that when C(2) is not equal to C(4), there exist asymmetries. The results are presented in Table 5.14.1. The data
on weighted average deposit rates from July 2002 to June 2007 confirms the asymmetry in the impact of changes in
benchmark rate on deposit rates in time of expansionary and contractionary monetary policy. Specifically, the impact on
deposit rates appeared stronger when the benchmark rates declines and weaker when the benchmark rates increases.26
Further, a threshold generalized autoregressive conditional hetroskedastic (TARCH) model was used to capture the
asymmetric impact of policy changes on variance of deposit rates. The results were similar to those obtained earlier. As
shown in the Table 5.14.2, the variance of changes in deposit rates increases when the policy stimulus is downward.
Box 5.15: Impact of EFS on Net Interest Margin (NIM)

While announcing the level of refinancing rate for EFS scheme, the SBP also puts a ceiling on the margin that the banks can
earn when they lend to the export sector. This margin
was constant at 1.5 percent throughout FY02 to FY06 after which the SBP lowered the margin to 1 percent during July 2006
with an objective of further subsidizing the credit for exporters.
The margin of 1 percent indeed is quite low compared Table 5.15.1: Impact of EFS on NIM of Banks
with an average net interest margin of 4.2 percent in the Panel Least Squares
last five years. Therefore, it seems possible that when the Variable Coefficient t-Statistic
share of EFS increases in total banks‟ earning assets, the
Constant -0.07 -0.09
net interest margin squeezes.
Net interest margin (-1) 0.42 8.61
To check this hypothesis, cross section data was used for Share of EFS loans in total assets(-1) -0.04 -2.23
32 banks in Pakistan for the period of 10 years, i.e., 1996 Real GDP growth 0.18 2.62
to 2006. A few macroeconomic and bank specific factors Average cost of deposits & borrowings -0.24 -4.20
were used to explain the changes in NIM (calculated as the Weighted average lending rates 0.27 4.40
net interest income divided by average earning assets). Non-interest income to total assets -0.15 -2.59
While the impact of macroeconomic performance was Cross-sections included: 32 Adj R-sq 0.31
captured through the growth in real GDP, the weighted
Total panel (unbalanced) obs: 314 DW stat 1.81
average lending rates were used to capture the trends in
Prob (F-stat) 0.00
interest rates. Four bank specific factors were used
including; (1) the NIM in the previous year; (2) average cost of deposits and borrowings: (3) share of export finance in total
assets (EFSA); and (4) non-interest income to total assets. The results are shown in Table 5.15.1.
As expected, the sign of EFSA was negative suggesting that higher the share of export finance in banks‟ portfolio, lower will
be their net interest margins. The results further suggest that increase in non-interest income allows banks to squeeze the
interest margins. In contrast, higher GDP growth and increasing lending rates in the economy increase the NIM.
6. Asset Quality Figure 5.37: Asse t Q uality of Banks

The asset quality of the banking industry NP Ls to Advances ratio Net NP Ls to Net Advances ratio
improved further in FY07 as both the net NPLs 16
to net advances ratio and gross NPLs to
advances ratio showed a consistent decline (see
Figure 5.37). The declining NPLs ratio 12
coupled with the increase in capital base of the
percent
banking sector has resulted in a decline in 8

vulnerability of banks‟ financial soundness to
the asset quality.
4
Having said this, the increase in interest rates

and aggressive loan growth in recent years 0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
26
It is important to mention here that the results obtained did not produce residuals that pass the normality test mainly due to
the inclusion of overnight rates into deposit rates until July 2003. When the similar exercise was repeated using the data
from 2003 onwards, the results remained more or less the same but residuals passed the normality tests.
86
Money and Banking
have caused a slight deterioration in the quality of loans as the gross NPLs witnessed a growth of 3.9
percent during FY07 compared with a decline of 8.7 percent in the preceding year. 27 Although the
additions in NPLs during FY07 were slightly higher than the reductions in NPLs during FY07 (see
Figure 5.38), the composition of the latter during FY07 showed improvement over the preceding
year. Specifically, the reductions in NPLs constituted mainly of cash recoveries and upgraded NPLs
during FY07 compared with FY06 when the write-offs constituted most of the reductions. More
importantly, the cash recoveries grew by 11.2 percent in FY07 after having declined in the preceding
year.
The disaggregated data of NPLs by sectors

Figure 5.38: Move me nts in NPLs and Tre nd in Gross
shows that while the corporate sector had the NPLs
largest contribution in the gross NPLs‟ growth Cash recovery Restructured amount
during FY07, the quality of consumer loans Write-offs Upgraded NPLs
Others Gross NPLs-RHS
appears to have deteriorated most. In specific Additions
90 204
terms, the gross NPLs in consumer loan
category at end-FY07 were more than double 72
billion Rupees
the same at end-FY06. Moreover, consumer 193
billion Rupees
loan was the only category where the NPLs to 54
loan ratio has actually increased by 1.7 182
percentage points during FY07. Although this 36
increase was explained largely by the 18
171
aggressive lending activities of banks in recent
years as well as increase in interest rates, a part 0 160
of the deteriorating asset quality was caused by FY05 FY06 FY07
restructuring of the banking sector.
Specifically, the sharp increase in NPLs of consumer loans was visible mainly in one formerly foreign
bank that acquired a domestic private bank during FY07. Since the acquiring bank follows a more
conservative approach in classifying loans under NPLs, such loans were also classified under NPLs
which were reported as performing loans by the acquired bank earlier. This is evident from the fact
that adjusting for these banks, the increase in NPLs to loan ratio during FY07 narrows to 0.9
percentage points.
5.4 Money Market

In line with SBP‟s monetary policy stance to curb the inflationary pressures by reducing excess
demand from the economy, SBP kept tight liquidity conditions in money market throughout FY07.
The focus of SBP‟s monetary management was to improve the transmission of policy rates on the
retail rates by draining excess liquidity from the money market and keeping the overnight rates close
to the discount rate.
Developments in the Debt and Money Market

The developments in the money market during FY07 can be categorized into two phases because of
change in market behavior based upon expectations regarding interest rate scenarios and the liquidity
conditions.
First phase
The first phase that constitutes the first half of FY07 is categorized by (1) lower Rupee liquidity as
reflected in higher credit to deposit ratio, and (2) uncertainty regarding response of market rates to
increase in the policy rate and the reserve requirements.
27
NPLs from domestic operations registered a growth of 3.9 percent during FY07 whereas NPLs from total operations (both
domestic and overseas) registered a growth of 1.9 percent during FY07.
87
This uncertainty in the interest rate movements was also evident in very low participation by
commercial banks in the T-bill auctions. In fact throughout H1-FY07, SBP set the T-bill auction
target in such a way that not only all the maturities are rolled over but some additional liquidity may
also be drained out of the money market. But due to credit off-take season and a rising differential
between repo rates and Kibor, market players did not find it attractive to invest in government papers.
Consequently, SBP was not able to even roll over all the T-bill maturities (Table 5.6).
In addition to these maturities, the one-time Table 5.6: Auction Statistics FY07
billion Rupees
swap facility offered to the textiles sector for
Target Offered Accepted
their outstanding loans under LTF-EOP scheme H1 512.0 524.7 411.9
injected substantial liquidity into the money H2 246.0 553.1 486.9
market. To mop up these inflows, the SBP Net off maturities
increased the frequency of OMOs. H1 62.4 75.0 -38.0
Furthermore, the reintroduction of outright H2 50.02 357.1 290.9
OMOs in September 2006 helped SBP in mopping-up excess liquidity from the money market for
relatively longer periods of time.
As a result, not only the overnight rates remained very close to the discount rates but the volatility in
the rates also declined. The impact of SBP‟s liquidity management is also evident in upward
movement in the weighted average lending rates.
Figure 5.39: Open Market Operations
Second phase Injection Absorption Frequency (RHS)
During second half of FY07, inter-bank money
160 16
market witnessed relatively more liquidity
inflows (on account of high deposit growth in FY06 FY07
the banking sector, increased foreign exchange 120 12
inflows and a slowdown in credit to private
billions Rupees
number
sector). Due to lack of alternative investment 80 8
avenues, commercial banks started to
aggressively invest in the government 40 4
securities. In the meantime, huge absorption
through OMOs had caused a sharp increase in 0 -
repo rates that ultimately reached close to 12-
Nov-05
Nov-06
May-06
May-07
Mar-06
Mar-07
Sep-06
Sep-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jul-06
month auction cut off rate during March FY07.

This necessitated an upward revision in auction
cut off rates (see Figure 5.39), thereby further
igniting commercial banks‟ interest in
Figure 5.40: Auction Cut-off Rates
government papers. 3-month 6-month 12-month
11
Since commercial banks were of the view that
9
the interest rates in the economy have peaked
out, they started investing heavily in 12-month 8
government paper. This enabled SBP to 6
percent
mobilize more than Rs 290 billion net off

5
maturity for the government (for reasons, see
Box 5.16). In the wake of high participation of 3
banks in auctions, there was a visible 2
slowdown in the number of OMOs conducted
13-Apr-05
25-Apr-07
3-Feb-05
5-Jan-06
2-Aug-06
27-Oct-05
9-Jun-05
25-May-06
16-Mar-06
7-Dec-06
16-Sep-04
28-Sep-06
14-Feb-07
19-Aug-05
25-Nov-04
8-Jul-04
during H2-FY07 (see Figure 5.40). However,

SBP remained very vigilant to unanticipated
liquidity injections in the money market and
conducted even 2-day OMOs to pick up the
88
Money and Banking
intra day liquidity. Money market‟s tight liquidity conditions can also be gauged from the fact that
the commercial banks availed a large amount of Rs 393 billion from the discount window of SBP
during H2-FY07 compared to Rs 285.2 billion during H1-FY07.
Ironically, December 2006 onwards, the tight liquidity conditions coincided with a softening of Kibor.
Many market players were of the view that the softening in Kibor reflects the laxed liquidity
management but the analysis suggests that although the recent softening is partially explained by a
low advances to deposit ratio, the level of kibor appears to be converging to its long term trend.
Figure 5.16.1: Monthly Offers in T-bills of Different Tenors
Box 5.16: Why Commercial Banks are investing in 12-
Months T-bills 12-Month 6-Month 3-Month
From October FY07 onwards, commercial banks are
placing most of their offers in 12- months‟ paper in the T- 1.0
bills auctions (see Figure 5.16.1). Following are some of
the reasons for this behavior of commercial banks: 0.8
1- The market was expecting that the overall 0.6
share
interest rates in the economy have peaked out
and there will be no further interest rate hike in 0.4
the economy.
2- The 12-month T-bills were providing the 0.2
highest interest earnings with zero risk in the
short run. 0.0
3- Another reason for the commercial banks to
Apr
Oct
Aug
Nov
Dec
Jun
Jul
Mar
May
Sep
Feb
Jan
invest in 12-month T-bills relates to the
movements in the yield curve in repo market.
During Dec-05, when the yield curve was steep,
the commercial banks borrowed aggressively in
Figure
Figure5.16.2:
5.18.1: Re po Marke t Yie ld Curve
the short term and invested in the long term.
During March FY07, average one week repo Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06
Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07
rate was higher even the 3-months repo rate.28
This borrowing pattern in the money market by 9.5
the commercial banks is also visible in the
relative flattening of the repo market yield curve 9.0
in June FY07 (see Figure 5.16.2).
8.5
percent
Pakistan Investment Bonds

During FY07, government issued its 30-year 8.0
long term bond; a major breakthrough for
extending yield curve and for developing a 7.5
benchmark for housing/mortgage/infrastructure
instruments market in Pakistan. The delays in 7.0
issuance of PIBs from 2004 onwards not only 1 wk 2 wk 1 mth 3m 6m 12m
posed problems for financial institutions in
managing gap between their long term assets and liabilities but also hampered the secondary market
trading. Government of Pakistan successfully conducted five PIB auctions during FY07 by re-
opening previous issues along with making new issues including 30-year PIBs. Bids of Rs 87.9
billion were accepted in different tenors against the target of Rs 80.0 billion (including Rs 48.7 billion
as fresh loans and Rs 39.2 billion of FIB/PIB roll over – see Table 5.7).
Aggressive participation of different institutions in the PIB auctions not only helped government in
achieving its target but has also helped in developing conditions for a vibrant secondary PIB market.
28
This increase in one week and two week repo rates in the money market was also one of the reasons for SBP to increase open market
operations cut off rates and further the T-bills cut off rates.
89
Table 5.7: PIB Auction Profile

billion Rupees
3-years 5-years 10-years 15-years 20-years 30-years Total
Matured 9.651 5.317 - - - - 14.968
FY06 Accepted 3.205 4.608 3.424 - - - 11.237
Excess/deficit 6.445 0.709 3.424 - - - -3.731
Matured 14.533 24.982 - - - - 39.212
FY07 Accepted 10.882 10.174 30.211 9.25 11.25 16.1 87.867
Excess/deficit 3.651 14.509 30.211 9.25 11.25 16.1 48.652
5.5 Capital Markets

The salient feature of Pakistan‟s capital
markets in FY07 was the significantly large Figure 5.41: Pe rformance of KSE
inflows of portfolio investment as measured by Percent Index (RHS)
SCRA.30 This rising foreign interest in the 100
equity market helped the Karachi Stock 14,000
Exchange (KSE) to maintain its upward trend 80 12,000
index, particularly during H2-FY07. In overall
KSE 100 index

terms, the benchmark KSE-100 index grew by 60 10,000
percent
37.9 percent in FY07 (see Figure 5.41) despite

8,000
facing two severe market corrections in H1- 40
FY07. 6,000
20
4,000
Another significant development in FY07 was
the introduction of a free-float31 index which 0 2,000
incorporated 30 leading companies. The index FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
was introduced in September 2006, with a base
period of 30th June 2005 and the base value of
Figure 5.42: KSE-100 Inde x and Re ady Volume s
10,000. KSE-30 index is more representative
Ready volume (RHS) KSE-100
of market performance and it can be adjusted
600 15,000
for dividends and rights shares announced by
500 14,000
various companies. Other benchmarks for
million shares
13,000
assessing KSE performance, i.e., the KSE-100
index
400
and KSE-All Shares Index do not account for 12,000
300
these adjustments. 11,000
200
10,000
The large corrections observed in the KSE-100 100 9,000
index in August FY07 and November- - 8,000
December FY07,32 as shown in Figure 5.42,
2-Aug-06
27-Aug-07
28-Jun-07
3-Jul-06
1-Sep-06
28-Jul-07
28-Feb-07
30-Nov-06
29-Jan-07
29-Apr-07
29-May-07
30-Dec-06
30-Mar-07
1-Oct-06
31-Oct-06
were the outcome of several events. These

include: (1) rumors of phasing out the limit on
CFS; (2) the news of delay of issuance of
OGDCs GDR and; (3) disappointing quarterly
results (Q2-FY07) as the auto, cement, and textile sector did not perform well. Furthermore, large
price corrections in shares of various listed banks also hampered the growth of the index. Moreover,
the findings of the forensic report33 on the March FY05 crisis also unsettled the market. However, the
30
Special Convertible Rupee Accounts
31
The free-float is the number of shares available to investors for trading purposes.
32
The November-December FY07 price correction was more severe as the index lost 13.9 percent in just 37 trading days.
33
Diligence USA‟s Report
90
Money and Banking
news of increasing the CFS limit from Rs 25 billion to Rs 55 billion,34 and linking the weighted
average CFS rate with the 1-month Kibor served to improve the market sentiment.
Table 5.8: Overview of Capital Market
Equities (KSE) FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08
Listed companies numbers 701 666 659 658 656 656
Listed capital billion Rs. 313 377 439 496 631 635
Market capitalization billion Rs. 755.77 1,422 2,068 2,801 4,019 3,492
Market capitalization as % of GDP percent 19.7 25.2 31.4 36.3 44.23 34.4
New listed companies numbers 6 14 18 4 18 01
New listed capital billion Rs. 4.6 55.6 32.3 7.8 7.98 12.1
Debt instruments (all listed)
New debt instruments listed numbers 15 6 12 7 8 Nil
Amount billion Rs. 10.7 3.32 15.6 7 11.2 Nil
KSE-100 index
High 4,606 5,620.7 10,303.1 12,273.8 9,504.4 14,202.4
Low 2,356.5 3,430.8 4,890.2 6,970.6 13,772.4 11,955.3
Turnover (KSE)
Average volume per day (shares) billion 0.31 0.39 0.35 0.32 0.21 0.28
Total value billion Rs. 3,841 4,862 7,167.58 8,707.46 5,452.76 871.8
Turnover ratio 4 3.42 3.47 3.11 1.35 0.25
Lahore stock exchange
LSE-25 index 2,034.6 2,828.3 3,762.3 4,379.3 4,849.88 4,247.22
LSE market capitalization billion Rs. 751.2 1,406.2 1,995.3 2,693.3 3,185.41 2,001.97
Market capitalization as % of GDP 15.6 24.9 30.3 34.9 35.1 22.0
Islamabad stock exchange
ISE-25 index 8,210.1 11,894.3 11,571.4 11,528.2 2,716.0* 2,736.58*
ISE market capitalization billion Rs. 5,41.3 1,106.2 997.6 2,101.6 3,060.6 2,740.66
Market capitalization as % of GDP 11.2 19.6 15.2 27.2 33.6 30.1
SCRA investment (net Flows) million US$ 354 980 (161.2)
Source: Stock exchanges. FY08 figures up to 31August.* ISE-10 Index
5.5.1 Market Developments Figure 5.43: Re gional Equity Marke ts Indice s

Besides the increase in the CFS cap, the 3 July 2006 =100
exemption from capital gains tax until June KSE BSE KLCI J CI SSE
2008 also augmented the market momentum in 280
January 2007. Moreover, the increase in net
240
SCRA flows (US $104 million in January
SSE-China
FY07) further amplified the positive market 200
indices
sentiment. However, this momentum was

short-lived as the corporate results were lower 160
than investors‟ expectations. Moreover, the
120
judicial crisis starting from March 2007, had
some impact on the growth of the index. 80 KSE
However, despite the prevailing political
Aug-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Jul-06
Nov-06
May-07
Dec-06
Mar-07
Oct-06
scenario in the country, the KSE-100 index

gained on account of attractive prices
particularly in banking, insurance and oil marketing scrips. Furthermore, with rising SCRA inflows,
the index reached a new peak of 13,772 points on June 29, 2007.
Foreign investment has been a major growth driver during FY07. On one hand, equity markets in
Pakistan offered an attractive P/E value (12.8x), 35 on the other hand the market traded at a discount in
34
In November 2006
35
FY07 EPS Source : Capital One Securities
91
comparison with regional markets (Average 15.1 times). As a result, SCRA investment flows have
seen a sharp rise from US$ 354 million in FY06 to US$ 980 in FY07 as shown in Table 5.8.
However, the KSE-100 index still lags behind all major stock exchanges in Asia (see Figure 5.43).
5.5.2 CFS and Futures in KSE Figure 5.44: CFS and Futures Volumes in KSE
One of the reasons for the robust growth in the (million shares)
KSE-100 index in H2-FY07 has been the CFS Volume Future Volume KSE-100-LHS
increase in the CFS limit. With rising CFS 15,000
600
investment, CFS volumes also rose very 14,000
500
sharply indicating the investors‟ interest in CFS
million shares
13,000
400
(see Figure 5.44). In case of futures, the 12,000
index
11,000 300
average turnover has been very low (59 million
10,000 200
shares) as the futures option is available in a
9,000 100
few leading scrips. Although CFS was also
8,000 0
available in a few scrips until recently, its
31-Oct-06
29-May-07
30-Mar-07
28-Feb-07
28-Jul-07
29-Apr-07
1-Sep-06
28-Jun-07
2-Aug-06
3-Jul-06
30-Dec-06
1-Oct-06
29-Jan-07
30-Nov-06
27-Aug-07
volume is higher as the investors generally roll-
over their commitments in a few days. This
type of roll-over is not applicable in futures
trading, which are usually traded for 28 to 30
days. Figure 5.45: CFS Investment and KSE
CFS Investment KSE-100 (RHS)
Figure 5.45 shows the trend of rising CFS 60 15,000
investment strongly complementing the KSE- 50 14,000
100 index growth. Furthermore, CFS 13,000
billion Rupees
investment has been very close to its maximum 40

12,000
allowable limit of Rs 55 billion in the last few
index
30
months of FY07. This may have also been on 11,000
20
account of decreasing CFS rate. 10,000
10 9,000
5.5.3 Listings in KSE - 8,000
FY07 is also significant in a way in that it
3-Mar-07
3-Sep-06
3-Jan-07
3-Nov-06
3-May-07
3-Jul-06
3-Jul-07
witnessed the largest number of IPOs and

floatation as also seen in FY05. There were 14
IPOs amounting to Rs 11.7 billion in FY06
which increased to 18 IPOs and floatation Figure 5.46: IPOs and Floatations in KSE
amounting to Rs 11.2 billion (see Figure 5.46). Floatations IPO Numbers (RHS)
60 21
5.5.4 Sector Wise performance in KSE
The KSE was once dominated by oil marketing 50 18
and exploration companies on account of the
number of shares traded and market 40 14
billions Rupees
capitalization. However, due to rising 30 11

numbers
profitability, the commercial banking sector `

has managed to take the lead in the market in 20 7
CY07. Figure 5.47 shows the composition of
turnover of shares traded in KSE at different 10 4
time intervals. Besides the commercial
0 0
banking sector, the technology and
communication sector has also seen increased FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
turnover.
92
Money and Banking
Table 5.9: Sector-Wise Annual Corporate Results for CY05 and CY06 (PAT in million rupees, Dividend in percent)
2005 2006
Cash Stock Total Cash Stock Total
Sectors No. PAT div div div No. PAT div div div
Close end mutual funds 22 7553.3 14.1 4.5 16.1 23.0 8265.6 18.9 1.8 17.2
Modarabas 38 806.0 7.0 0.2 5.8 35.0 814.8 -8.6 -0.9 -7.8
Leasing companies 21 1119.4 4.2 6.9 10.5 20.0 788.1 4.6 4.1 8.3
Investment banks 26 7488.9 19.7 20.7 34.2 24.0 7116.1 14.6 7.9 18.9
Commercial banks 20 47199.4 14.2 20.3 34.5 22.0 60266.9 11.9 12.7 23.5
Insurance 37 4826.2 13.0 16.3 23.8 38.0 13558.1 24.0 27.9 24.0
Textile spinning 112 2231.2 4.9 0.5 4.8 110.0 838.6 3.0 1.1 3.6
Textile weaving 20 -345.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 195.4 2.1 1.7 2.3
Textile composite 57 5789.3 9.0 2.1 9.6 58.0 4146.7 6.6 10.3 13.4
Woolen 5 5.9 5.0 -3.1
Synthetic and rayon 19 472.4 5.3 0.6 5.0 19.0 1820.9 5.7 0.0 4.2
Jute 6 511.1 26.0 26.0 6.0 586.7 21.0 4.0 20.8
Sugar and allied 37 1766.5 10.9 2.4 12.9 37.0 1415.2 7.2 2.5 9.4
Cement 21 7967.7 4.2 4.8 8.9 21.0 11911.4 10.3 2.4 12.7
Tobacco 5 3012.9 45.0 0.0 45.0 4.0 3465.3 42.8 4.0 46.8
Refinery 4 5175.6 43.8 12.5 56.3 4.0 5255.5 41.9 17.5 59.4
Power generation 13 14425.0 12.8 0.0 11.8 13.0 1263.9 10.2 0.0 9.4
Oil and gas marketing 7 12442.0 110.7 8.3 119.0 7.0 16636.9 114.7 5.0 119.7
Oil and gas exploration 4 45715.3 71.4 0.0 71.4 4.0 65683.6 90.2 12.5 102.7
Engineering 13 1141.4 18.3 13.0 24.0 13.0 1245.4 22.2 9.3 24.2
Automobile assembler 13 6996.6 68.3 5.8 68.5 13.0 10513.3 73.7 12.9 79.9
Automobile parts 12 667.1 7.9 8.5 824.7 12.0 612.6 17.0 1.5 15.4
Cable and electrical 9 1209.4 88.6 11.5 87.6 9.0 1349.7 114.2 16.7 98.1
Transport 5 -1405.5 6.7 3.3 6.0 5.0 1529.9 2.0 0.0 2.0
Technology communication 12 28195.9 5.4 2.1 7.5 9.0 22527.0 15.0 9.1 21.4
Fertilizer 4 12533.5 85.0 13.8 98.8 4.0 11682.5 73.8 0.0 73.8
Pharmaceuticals 8 3597.9 50.9 12.5 63.4 8.0 3522.2 46.2 10.7 49.8
Chemical 23 4598.5 29.1 5.2 32.8 23.0 3148.1 31.9 3.1 31.9
Paper and board 12 1737.6 28.9 1.8 30.7 10.0 6763.5 23.3 3.9 27.2
Vanaspati and allied 13 72.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 -91.0 2.5 0.0 1.5
Leather and tyrannies 5 90.9 14.0 0.0 14.0 5.0 107.6 15.0 0.0 12.0
Food and personal care 21 4323.4 84.9 0.5 77.3 21.0 4613.1 92.3 1.6 85.0
Glass and ceramics 10 319.2 7.9 5.0 9.0 10.0 601.8 7.9 7.1 10.5
Miscellaneous 27 489.8 11.6 1.1 10.4 27.0 1412.5 16.3 2.3 15.1
Source: Karachi Stock Exchange
5.5.5 Corporate Profitability Figure 5.47: Turnove r of Major Se ctors

The Corporate profitability (results) has always
J une-06 March-07 J une-07
been a major factor in the movement of the 35
KSE-100 index. Generally, corporate with
higher profitability are assumed to share 28
dividends with its stakeholders in the form of 21
cash dividends and/or bonus and rights shares.
percent
14
The profit after tax (PAT) of companies listed
7
in KSE increased by 17.5 percent in CY06 as
compared to CY05, (see Table 5.9). This has 0
Commercial
been due to the favorable investment climate.

Cement
Exploration
Oil & Gas
Communication
Oil & Gas
Technology &
Marketing
banks
The insurance and banking sector has displayed

strong growth in its earnings during CY06 on
93
account of higher investment returns.

Figure 5.48: Floatations of TFCs
Moreover, the insurance sector has witnessed Amo unt Numbers (RHS)
an increased business in the form of higher net
20 25
premiums. Similarly, the cement and
automobile assembler sector produced better
16 20
results in CY06 on account of the ongoing
construction boom and demand for
billion Rupees
12 15
automobiles. However, with a rise in the rates
numbers
of car financing, the sales of major automobile
8 10
assemblers have decreased in CY06. The
textile sector on the other hand disappointed
the investors as its profitability declined in 4 5
CY06.
0 0
5.5.6 Corporate Debt Market FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
The corporate debt market has also seen new
floatation in FY07 amounting to Rs 14.2 billion (see Table 5.10). Both, the number of issues and the
amount mobilized during FY07 were higher compared to the preceding year (see Figure 5.48).
Further, most of the floatation during FY07 were related to the financial sector.
Table 5.10 : Listing of Term Finance Certificates in FY07 (KSE)

Coupon Tenor Total amount
Company Issue date rate years million Rs.
First International Inv. Bank 11-Jul-06 6-Month KIBOR+2.25% No Floor, Cap 5 500
Mobilink 2 31-May-06 6-Month KIBOR+2.85%, No Floor & Cap 7 3,000
JS & Co. 3 21-Nov-06 6-Month KIBOR+2.50%, 6.00% Floor & 16.00% Cap 5 1,000
UBL 3 9-Aug-06 12.11% (KIBOR + 1.7%) 5 2,000
Allied Bank 12-Jun-06 12.46% (KIBOR + 1.9%) 8 2,500
JS ABAMCO (A& B) 17-Jan-07 6-Month KIBOR+2.00%, 6.00% Floor & 16.00% Cap 7 700
Bank Al-Habib Limited (II) 7-Feb-07 12.61% (KIBOR + 1.95%) 8 1,500
Escort Investment Bank 15-Mar-07 6-Month KIBOR+2.50%, 8.00% Floor & 17.00% Cap 5 500
Orix Leasing Pakistan 25-May-07 6-Month KIBOR+1.50% 5 2,500
Total 14,200
94

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5 Money and Banking

5.1 Monetary Policy

In order to achieve its target, SBP first raised

substantially reduced the cost of fixed

The refinance facility by the SBP posed

SBP monetary policy proved effective in 1.0

Tight liquidity conditions in the inter-bank

Unfortunately, the impact of the slowdown in Figure 5.4: Trend in Inflation

translate into a desirable decline in overall Core inflation (trimmed)

CPI inflation during FY07 (see Figure 5.4). 10

deceleration in non-food inflation were 7

observed in FY06 (i.e., 6.9 percent), CPI

Box 5.1: What is the Second Round Impact of Food Inflation?

However, the monetary policy thus far has

problems in monetary policy conduct. 20

The first problem for monetary policy during

partly diluted the impact of tight monetary 10

central bank‟s credibility in meeting the Contribution in M2 FY07 Slippage from

growth during FY07 will be a challenge to NFA-Govt. 5.0 5.9 0.8 - - -

food supply and other administrative

Key measures in monetary policy framework for FY08

Box 5.3: Rationale Behind the Abandonment of Credit Plan

5.2 Monetary Survey Table 5.3: Monetary Survey

surplus in financial account, especially in the

second half of FY07 (see Figure 5.9). 200

Furthermore, most of the H2-FY07 increase 100

increase in FDI, persistent rise in portfolio

Further strength in scheduled banks‟ NFA came

This sharp increase in commercial banks‟ NFA,

floatation of GDRs. 100

trigger further foreign exchange inflows in the

Box 5.4: The sterilization Experience of Asian Economies

1. Central Bank securities

2. Government/public sector deposits with Central Bank

3. Market stabilization bonds by the central government

4. Interest bearing deposits by scheduled banks

5.2.2 Net Domestic Assets

FY06. This was mainly because of sluggish 20

Government Borrowings for Budgetary

also make the government debt less

1. The growth in aggregate budgetary finance 40

2. Since the increase in aggregate budgetary Jun

In specific terms, up to December 2006, Figure 5.17: Composition of Budgetary Borrowings

Firstly, the resultant rise in the reserve money

Box 5.5: Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation: Review of Empirical Literature

Box 5.6: Crowding out of Private Sector: A Phenomenon Absent by Now

Theoretical base of Crowding-out

(1991) supported the hypothesis that the government

Private Sector Credit

the preceding five years (see Figure 5.18). 300

the convergence of private sector credit growth

Credit demand and sector concentration

Interestingly, the sectors where the credit

Figure 5.7.1: Relationship b/w Corporate Leverage & WALR (1988-2005)

Credit supply and bank concentration

slowdown in credit supply included those 50 0.070

In particular, the decline in concentration has

Trend in Various Loan Products

ΔWADR= (C(1)* Δ WADR(-2)+C(2)( Δ(TBILL(-1)))( Δ TBILL(-1)>0)+(C(3)* Δ(WADR(-2) +C(4)* (Δ TBILL(-1)))*(