14 Thailand: Siri Ganjarerndee
14 Thailand: Siri Ganjarerndee
14 Thailand: Siri Ganjarerndee
14
Thailand
Siri Ganjarerndee
Executive Summary
the rst Thai bond in Europe as early as 1905, and the rst domestic
bonds in 1933.
However, the bond market did not really take o¬. Bonds issued to
fund successive budgetary decits during the period of the 1961 Na-
tional Economic and Social Development Plan, for example, were absorbed
by a captive market, preventing the development of a secondary market,
as institutions preferred to hold on to bonds until maturity.
Despite recent developments, infrastructure such as the tax envi-
ronment and clearing and settlement system remains insu¹cient. In the
primary market, investors or nancial institutions are often unable to
e¹ciently plan their investment portfolio due to irregular auction sched-
ules. Moreover, they may not be able to purchase required amounts of
bonds due to insu¹cient supply in the market.
In the secondary market, illiquidity remains a problem in both the
public and private bond market, due to the lack of a market-making
system, electronic trading system, and e¹cient price discovery. Disclo-
sure of both pricing and fundamental information is not fully transparent,
and some investors still face investment constraints due to the ine¹cient
regulatory framework. There is also a lack of common understanding of
the pricing convention. These problems, in both markets, arise partly
from the ine¹ciency of the supporting infrastructure.
It is clear, however, that the growing nancial needs of Thailands
economy can no longer be met by the banking sector alone, and its
overregulated environment will soon have to give way to a more mar-
ket-oriented, private sector-driven one that is more conducive to the
development of new instruments and institutions.
The bond market today is dominated by government securities. In
1991, their share of the market was 90 percent, compared with less than
2 percent for corporate bonds. This was because, before 1992, the issu-
ance of corporate bonds was limited to public companies and companies
listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). As a result, private
companies relied heavily on bank loans and equity as funding sources.
This meant the proportion of outstanding value of corporate bonds was
minimal compared to that of government and state enterprise bonds.
This all changed with the crisis, however, which brought massive
problems of nonperforming loans and low condence, resulting in a sharp
decline in bank lending to the private sectoreven to top-rated compa-
nies. The Government had to step in to support the distressed nancial
sector with B500 billion in government bonds issued through the Finan-
cial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) to recapitalize the system,
and state enterprises and corporations had to issue debt to restructure
their debts and fund new projects.
644 Government Bond Market Development in Asia
Thailand was severely a¬ected by the Asian crisis, with GDP growth
falling by 10.2 percent in 1998 and more than 50 percent of bank assets
estimated to be nonperforming.
Since the beginning of the IMF recovery program in August 1997,
the macroeconomic policy framework has concentrated on stabilizing
the value of the baht, fostering economic recovery, and reforming the
nancial sector.1 The two last objectives have given rise to an increas-
ing budget decit as a percentage of GDP, from 0.7 percent in scal year
(FY) 1997 to 2.5 percent in FY2 1998 and 5 percent in FY 1999.
With a sequence of budget decits reecting the Governments at-
tempt to mitigate the e¬ects of the nancial crisis, the scal position
has become weaker. The accumulation of past scal surpluses, of some
B400 billion in 1996, for example, has been run down to a mere B90
billion. Meanwhile, smaller than predicted revenues have forced the
Government to rely more on decit nancing, raising the ratio of gov-
ernment debt to GDP from 16 percent of GDP in 1996 to 36.8 percent of
GDP in 1999.
Of this amount, 55 percent was domestic and 45 percent foreign
debt, while 51 percent was from the Governments direct borrowings and
49 percent by state enterprises. Based on the current scal policy stance,
total government debt is projected to rise further to B2.37 trillion in
2000, or approximately 44 percent of GDP, peaking at around B2.8 tril-
lion, or 49 percent of GDP, in 2001.
TABLE 1
Government Debt Projection, 20002003
(B billion)
billion over ve years. As the economy recovers, however, revenue will
also pick up, leading to a lower level of budget decit, declining from
B110 billion in 2000 to just B26 billion in 2003.
Playing the roles of both lender of last resort and deposit insur-
ance, the FIDF has incurred a total gross outlay of some B1.9 trillion.
From these transactions, however, it expects to receive a certain amount
of money in return from recovery of NPLs by the AMCs, proceeds from
sales of intervened banks and Financial Sector Restructuring Authoritys
(FRA) assets, as well as scal compensation, totaling some B1.3 trillion.
The FIDF will thus incur a net loss of some B560 billion, with the
Government taking up around a B1.1 trillion scal burden (around 20
percent of GDP) from the whole process.
TABLE 2
Net Fiscal Burden of the FIDFs Financial Restructuring E¬orts
(B billion)
Item Amount
Losses of the FIDF (Items) 554.4
Expenditures 1,905.4
Loans to 56 FCs Closed Down 410.5
Deposit Insurance for 56 FCs 291.2
Losses from BBCs Capital Reduction 26.0
Losses from FIDFs Renancing of BBCs Loans 56.0
Capital Increases to Intervened Banks 451.6
FIDFs Share of Bad Debt Provisioning Burden 370.0
Interest Costs (19992004) 300.0
Revenue and Compensation 1,350.0
Proceeds from Sales of Intervened Banks 130.0
40 percent of NPL Recovered by AMCs 550.0
First Fiscal Compensation for FIDFs Losses (1998) 500.0
FRAs Auctioning Proceeds 170.0
Total Government Compensation 1,055.4
FCs = Finance Companies.
Source: Trust Fund Bureau Research Centers estimates.
648 Government Bond Market Development in Asia
BOT will have to take responsibility for the B555 billion remain-
ing losses of the FIDF, as well as the burden of servicing IMF loans.
This represents the rst step in coordination between monetary and s-
cal policies. Given the magnitude of the debt instruments to be oated
on the domestic nancial market in particular, further close cooperation
will be required to avoid disruption of domestic stability, and also to
foster longer-term development of an e¹cient bond market and ensure
competitive costs of decit nancing. This is being proposed within the
framework of ination-targeting, whereby the monetary policy stance
will be set under a projected set of macroeconomic variables, including
scal decit and nancing needs two years ahead.
A. Secondary Trading
FIGURE 1
Thai Bond Dealers Club Trading Movement
(B billion)
200
180 Corporate Bonds
160
140
120
B billion
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Thailand 651
FIGURE 2
Thai Bond Dealers Club Turnover Ratio
16
14
12
10
Percent
8
6
4
2
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
FIGURE 3
Thai Bond Dealers Club Trading Value 1999
Gov. Bonds
80%
E¬orts to deepen and broaden the market are thus more urgent
than ever to prevent the possibility of debt indigestion over the me-
dium term. Barring this problem, the bond market in Thailand is predicted
to reach its deepest point in 2001 (at around 64 percent of GDP), after
which this depth is projected to decline gradually.
652 Government Bond Market Development in Asia
B. Historical Overview
While the Thai Government issued the rst Thai bond in Europe as
early as 1905, and the rst domestic bonds in 1933, the Thai bond market
did not really take o¬. The Government issued bonds to fund successive
budgetary decits as it tried to achieve the objectives of its 1961 Na-
tional Economic and Social Development Plan. These were absorbed by
a captive market (commercial banks, which were required to hold gov-
ernment debt securities or state enterprise bonds as part of the requirements
for bank branchinga regulation that was gradually relaxed and nally
removed in May 1993). A secondary market therefore failed to develop
as institutions preferred to hold on to bonds until maturity.
In an attempt to solve the liquidity problem, BOT o¬ered to buy
back certain types of bonds from individual investors at xed buyback
prices announced in advance. This failed, however, as interest rates rose
and bond market prices fell below these xed prices.
Several developments primed the secondary market between 1983
and 1986, among them the increased role of commercial banks in trad-
ing government bonds. In addition, exchange bonds were ineligible for
reserve requirements and had to be sold in the secondary market. Also,
some types of bonds were not eligible for BOT buyback, and had to be
sold in the secondary market, and declining interest rates in the market
raised bond prices to levels higher than BOT buyback prices. Trading of
other bonds, such as the Telephone Organization of Thailand and the
Government Housing Bank, also became eligible for secondary trading.
However, the secondary market still remained moribundespecially from
1987 to 1989, when interest rates declined again and BOT buyback
became attractive once more. Tax policies (on interest income and with-
holding tax on capital gains) were not favorable either, and an improved
budget decit resulted in fewer issues of new bonds, especially during
Thailands high growth period from 1990 to 1996.
New attempts to strengthen the bond market were made in the
latter half of the 1990s. BOT started issuing short-term bonds (of one-
three- and six-month maturities), with the aim of using these for open-
market operations (OMO), establishing benchmark interest rates, and
accommodating excess demand for government bonds for the reserve
requirement purposes of nancial institutions. The FIDF also issued one-
three- and six-month bonds, which were later expanded to one- and two-
year bonds. The Government encouraged state enterprises to issue bonds
to fund their infrastructure projects. It also lifted interest rate ceilings in
June 1992 and removed tax disincentives (capital gains tax for individuals
who were not initial holders and stamp duty on bond transactions). Foreign
Thailand 653
C. Corporate Market
FIGURE 4
Issuance of Domestic Corporate Bonds
300
250
200
B billion
150
100
50
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Note: The gures of corporate bonds included bonds issued under SLIPS/CAPS
program, which amounted to B138 billion in 1999.
Corporate Debt
Securities
Domestic
Secured 2.00 7.07 8.55 17.62
Unsecured 13.12 23.63 10.42 33.45 67.50
Subordinated 17.28 70.62 63.53 2.91 137.06
Convertible 6.00 0.20 3.36 3.57
Short-term 0.66
Subtotal 37.06 96.45 84.38 44.91 225.75
O¬shore
Secured
Unsecured
Subordinated 26.52 26.52
Convertible
Subtotal 26.52 26.52
Note: The gures of corporate debt securities included bonds and subordinated bonds
attached to preferred shares under SLIPS/CAPS.
a
Preliminary.
Sources: Bank of Ayudhya Public Co. Ltd., Bangkok Public Co. Ltd., Bangkok First In-
vestment and Trust Public Co. Ltd., Trust Fund Bureau, Thailand Securities Depository
Co. Ltd., etc.
FIGURE 5
Outstanding Value of Bond by Sector
(as of 30 December 1999)
Energy
9%
Holding
7%
Food
7% Build. & Furnis.
Others
1% Transportation Commun 12%
2% 6%
Chem.
4%
D. Types of Securities
FIGURE 6
Outstanding Value of Corporate Bonds by Issue
(as of 30 December 1999)
140,000
120,000
100,000
B Million
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Straight issues Convertible issues Amortized issues
FIGURE 7
Outstanding Value of Corporate Bond by Maturity
(as of 30 December 1999)
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
B Million
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Lack of Diversity
E. Investor Base
investors should be relaxed to broaden the investor base for both the
primary and secondary markets.
Thailands low per capita income, compounded by limited market
understanding among individual investors, has hindered participation by
retail investors.
1. Government Bonds
2. Corporate Bonds
be traded via BondNet, and only dealers who were BDC members were
allowed to use the system. From 1995 to July 1997, the system worked
quite well, resulting in improved liquidity in the market. However, due
to the crisis, half of BDCs members stopped operating, and condence
in the corporate bond market diminished, along with the popularity of
BondNet. In May 1999, Thai BDC decided to stop operating the BondNet
system.
The lack of bias in an electronic trading system can contribute to
market liquidity even in a market where securities are traded OTC. It can
serve as real-time advertising page, where market makers or dealers can
quote their bid and o¬er prices for particular bonds. The system should
be able to facilitate the dealing process, where interested parties can
communicate with each other and execute the transaction.
With declining interest levels making the bond market popular
again, an electronic trading system would therefore be a useful tool for
market participants. The system should be expanded to o¬er real-time
bid-o¬er pages to dealers and investors, and the trading, clearing, and
settlement processes should be integrated.
F. Repo Market
G. Other Aspects
3. The Thai Bond Dealing Center is working with Internet Statistics and
Metrics Analysis (ISMA) in nding an acceptable annex to add to the Global
Master Repurchase Agreement, making it applicable in the Thai market.
664 Government Bond Market Development in Asia
2. Tax Treatment
3. Credit Rating
TRIS was established in 1993 with the support of BOT and technical
support of Standard and Poors. It is owned by about 70 shareholders
made up of public, private, and international nancial institutions. It o¬ers
two kinds of ratings: (i) company assessment, which rates the companys
overall creditworthiness; and (ii) issue rating, which assesses the issuers
ability to service the interest and principal of a particular debt issue.
TRIS largely rates corporate debt, while Standard & Poors and
Moodys rate government, some nancial institutions, and corporate debt.
A second local rating agency is expected to be established soon.
4. Transparency of Information
other words, no investor need worry that someone else has access to
more information about the product. Asymmetric information can cause
moral hazard and lead to higher premia, reluctance to trade, and higher
costs of fund to issuers. Finally, the lack or nontransparency of informa-
tion can lead to an illiquid and higher-cost market.
Presently, attempts are ongoing to improve bond market informa-
tion disclosure. Technological innovations, such as the Internet, have
greatly contributed to lower-cost information dissemination.
BOT continuously disseminates not only information on the gov-
ernment bond market, but also other useful economic indicators, via the
Internet without any charge to interested investors. However, information
regarding the bond market covers only government bonds. In addition,
the data collected by BOT are based on settlement dates, not trade dates.
Information on bids and o¬ers is not yet available to investors either.
To enhance market transparency for bond trading, Thai BDC has
developed a bond information system called the Thai BDC System, avail-
able to market participants via the Internet. It contains a broad range of
bond market information, such as trading data and statistics, information
on registered bonds, and a brief rundown on bond issuers and market
news and development. Trading data are directly reported by Thai BDC
dealer-members. The information is available in many forms, such as
real-time, end of day and historical trade, and covers government bonds,
state enterprise bonds, BOT/FIDF/PLMO bonds and corporate bonds.
There are still some points of concern, however. For example, in-
formation provided through Thai BDC system does not cover nonregistered
bonds, and there is still no real-time bid/o¬er facility. In addition, the
Thai BDC system depends on trading data reported by its dealer-mem-
bers, so care should be taken to ensure the accuracy and reliability of
the information.
A. Short-Term Strategy
Corporate Bonds
Longer-Term Bond. This would match cash ows for long-term projects
better than rolling over short-term bonds. Investors with an appetite for
higher yield will nd a place to put their money.
B. Long-Term Strategy
Promotion of Primary Dealers and Market Makers. For the OTC market,
the roles of PDs and interdealer brokers may be enhanced to improve
market depth and liquidity. This could involve granting bidding privi-
leges for them in primary markets. Where such an arrangement is not
available, encouraging an active interbank market, or active trading among
institutional investors, may be a good start. The experiences of more
developed markets have shown that it is essential that any privileges be
based on performance-linked criteria, such as trading volume, contribu-
tions in terms of bringing in new market players, and market stability
enhancement; these criteria should be subject to annual or semiannual
reviews.
Excessive privileges open opportunities for dealers to corner the
market, which has led some OECD countries to revise their policies. The
relative costs and benets of this policy should therefore be regularly
reviewed.
References
Alesina, A., A. Prati and G. Tabellini. 1990. Public Condence and Debt Man-
agement: A Model and a Case Study of Italy. In Public Debt Management:
Theory and History. Edited by R. Dornbusch and M. Draghi. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Alexander, W.E. et al. 1995. The Adoption of Indirect Instruments of Monetary
Policy. IMF Occasional Paper 126. International Monetary Fund.
Barro, R., Optimal Debt Management, NBER Working Paper 5327, October 1995.
Barro, R., and D. Gordon. 1983. Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of
Monetary Policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 12.
Bank of International Settlements. 1995. Annual Report, June 1995.
Bohn, H. 1990a. A Positive Theory of Foreign Currency Debt. Journal of Inter-
national Economics 29.
Bohn, H. 1990b. Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments. American Economic
Review 80: 5, December.
Boothe, P., and R. Bradford. 1992. Debt Management Objectives for a Small
Open Economy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 24: 1. February.
Broker, G. 1993. Government Securities and Debt Management in the 1990s,
Paris: OECD.
Calvo, G. 1988. Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations. American
Economic Review 78: 4 September.
Dattels, P. 1995. The Microstructure of Government Securities Markets. IMF
Working Paper 117, November.
De Broeck, M. 1992. The Financial Structure of Government Debt in OECD-
Countries. An Examination of the Time-Consistency Issue. Financial Economics
Research Paper 12. CES, Catholic University of Leuven.
Thailand 677
De Broeck, M., M.D. Guillaume, and E. Van der Stichele. 1997. Theoretical and
Empirical Analysis of the Structure and Functioning of the Primary and
Secondary Markets for Government Debt in the OECD Countries. Unpub-
lished Working Paper, Catholic University of Leuven.
de Fontenay, P., G.M. Milesi-Ferretti and H. Pill. 1995. The Role of Foreign
Currency Debt in Public Debt Management. IMF working paper. February.
Fry, M.J. 1996. Developing Voluntary Domestic Markets for Government Debt.
International Finance Group Working Paper 9607. University of Birmingham.
Horgan, M. 1994. Systems of Government Bond Auctions in OECD Countries.
Financial Markets Trends 59. October.
International Monetary Fund. 1995. International Capital Markets, Developments,
Prospects and Key Policy Issues. IMF. September.
International Monetary Fund. 1996. International Capital Markets, Developments,
Prospects and Key Policy Issues. IMF. September.
Kesselman, J.R. 1992. Innovation in Public Debt Management to Reduce the
Federal Decit. Canadian Public Policy 18. September.
Lauren, B., and E.G. de la Piedra. 1998. Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal
Policies. IMF Working Paper WP/98/25. March.
Lucas, R., and N. Stokey. 1983. Optimal Fiscal and Monetary in an Economy
Without Capital. Journal of Monetary Economics 12.
Persson, M., T. Persson, and L. Svensson. 1987. Time Consistency of Fiscal and
Monetary Policy. Econometrica 56:6. November.
Sheng, A. 1994. Development of the HL Dollar Debt Market. In The Practice of
Central Banking in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Monetary Authority. May.
Siller, K.D. 1994. Managing the Public Debt. Business Review, July/August. Fed-
eral Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Stebbing, P.W. 1994. Developing Secondary Markets. Paper presented at the South
Pacic Central Bankers Seminar on Debt Instruments Market Development
in Small Open Developing Economies. October.
Willer, D. 1996. Financial Aspects of Debt Management in Transition Economies.
August.
World Bank. 1995. The Emerging Asian Bond Market. June.
678 Government Bond Market Development in Asia
Appendix 1
TABLE A.1.1
Composition of Thai Bond Market
(B billion)
Type of Bond 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Government 213.1 201.4 195.2 150.8 133.9 100.7 62.5 52.5 58.5 64.4 411.9 630.2
Guaranteed
State Enterprise 7.4 10.4 16.6 49.4 62.9 109.7 159.8 208.7 239.7 247.3 255.7 309.1
Nonguaranteed
State Enterprise 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 13.2 25.3 30.6 29.6 38.7 46.5 44.9 47.3
Corporate 5.1 26.3 86.1 133.6 182.4 187.7 177.6 403.8
Total 222.1 213.4 213.4 201.5 215.1 262.0 339.0 424.4 519.3 545.9 890.1 1,390.4
TABLE A.1.2
Breakdown of Debt Securities in Thai BDC as at 30 December 1999
(B million)
TABLE A.1.3
Outstanding Value of Corporate Bond Classied by Sector in Thai BDC
(as of 30 December 1999)
(B million)
TABLE A.1.4
Thai BDC Trading Movement 19951999
(B billion)
Appendix 2
TABLE A.2.2
Thai BDC Government Bond Yield Curve
TABLE A.2.3
Thai BDC Government Bond Index, 1999
TABLE A.2.3
(continued)
TABLE A.2.3
(continued)