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    M. Dwi Yan Putra 01012681822053 MM 47

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    Dwi Yan Putra
    The document contains the answers to questions about forecasting methods for Wallace Garden Supply. It provides: 1) The 3-year moving average forecast and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 2.5417. 2) The 3-year weighted moving average forecast and its MAD of 2.3125. 3) Based on the lower MAD, the document concludes the 3-year weighted moving average method is slightly better for forecasting Wallace Garden Supply.

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    M. Dwi Yan Putra 01012681822053 MM 47

    Uploaded by

    Dwi Yan Putra
    100 views3 pages
    The document contains the answers to questions about forecasting methods for Wallace Garden Supply. It provides: 1) The 3-year moving average forecast and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 2.5417. 2) The 3-year weighted moving average forecast and its MAD of 2.3125. 3) Based on the lower MAD, the document concludes the 3-year weighted moving average method is slightly better for forecasting Wallace Garden Supply.

    Original Description:

    Analisis Kuantitatif

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    The document contains the answers to questions about forecasting methods for Wallace Garden Supply. It provides: 1) The 3-year moving average forecast and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 2.5417. 2) The 3-year weighted moving average forecast and its MAD of 2.3125. 3) Based on the lower MAD, the document concludes the 3-year weighted moving average method is slightly better for forecasting Wallace Garden Supply.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    100 views3 pages

    M. Dwi Yan Putra 01012681822053 MM 47

    Uploaded by

    Dwi Yan Putra
    The document contains the answers to questions about forecasting methods for Wallace Garden Supply. It provides: 1) The 3-year moving average forecast and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 2.5417. 2) The 3-year weighted moving average forecast and its MAD of 2.3125. 3) Based on the lower MAD, the document concludes the 3-year weighted moving average method is slightly better for forecasting Wallace Garden Supply.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    NAMA : M.

    Dwi Yan Putra


    KELAS : 47 B/ Reguler / ANALISIS KUANTITATIF
    NIM : 01012681822053
    DOSEN : Prof. Dr. H. Didik Susetyo , M.Si.

    1. Question 1: What is the three-year moving average forecast for Wallace Garden Supply?
    Question 2: What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the above moving average
    forecast?
    Question 3: What is the three-year weighted moving average forecast for Wallace Garden
    Supply?
    Question 4: What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the above weighted moving
    average forecast?
    Question 5: Based on your previous calculation, which method do you think is the best?

    Answer to Question 1:

    The three-year moving average forecast for a year = average of the actual demands in the past
    three years

    For example, the 3-year moving average forecast for year 4 = (4 + 6 + 4) / 3 ≈ 4.6667

    Year Actual demand Forecast


    1 4
    2 6
    3 4
    4 5 4.6667
    5 10 5
    6 8 6.3333
    7 7 7.6667
    8 9 8.3333
    9 12 8
    10 14 9.3333
    11 15 11.6667

    Answer to Question 2:

    Mean Absolute Deviation is equal to the average of the absolute forecast errors. For each
    year, the forecast error = actual demand in the year - forecast for the year.

    For example, the forecast error in year 4 = 5 - 4.6667 = 0.3333

    Year Actual demand Forecast Forecast error


    1 4
    2 6
    3 4
    4 5 4.6667 0.3333
    5 10 5 5
    6 8 6.3333 1.6667
    7 7 7.6667 -0.6667
    8 9 8.3333 0.6667
    9 12 8 4
    10 14 9.3333 4.6667
    11 15 11.6667 3.3333

    MAD = (0.3333 + 5 + 1.6667 + 0.6667 + 0.6667 + 4 + 4.6667 + 3.3333) / 8 ≈

    2.5417

    Answer to Question 3:

    The weight ratio for the sales in the most recent year = 2 / (2 + 1 + 1) = 0.5

    The weight ratio for the sales in the other 2 years = 1 / (2 + 1 + 1) = 0.25

    The weighted 3-year moving average forecast for year t = 0.5 * actual demand in year (t-1) +
    0.25 * actual demand in year (t-2) + 0.25 * actual demand in year (t-3)

    For example, the weighted 3-year moving average forecast for year 4 = 0.5 * 4 + 0.25 * 6 +
    0.25 * 4 = 4.5

    Year Actual demand Forecast


    1 4
    2 6
    3 4
    4 5 4.5
    5 10 5
    6 8 7.25
    7 7 7.75
    8 9 8
    9 12 8.25
    10 14 10
    11 15 12.25
    Answer to Question 4:

    Year Actual demand Forecast Forecast error


    1 4
    2 6
    3 4
    4 5 4.5 0.5
    5 10 5 5
    6 8 7.25 0.75
    7 7 7.75 -0.75
    8 9 8 1
    9 12 8.25 3.75
    10 14 10 4
    11 15 12.25 2.75

    The MAD of the weighted moving average method = (0.5 + 5 + 0.75 + 0.75 + 1 + 3.75 + 4 +
    2.75) / 8 = 2.3125

    Answer to Question 5:

    B. The 3-year weighted? moving average is slightly better since it has a lower MAD value.

    2. Using Computer Software Ms. Excel


    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.906914
    R Square 0.822494
    Adjusted R Square
    0.802771
    Standard Error1.472929
    Observations 11

    ANOVA
    df SS MS F Significance F
    Regression 1 90.474328 90.47433 41.70248 0.00012
    Residual 9 19.525672 2.169519
    Total 10 110

    Coefficients
    Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
    Upper 95.0%
    Intercept -0.66504 1.1236 -0.59188 0.568496 -3.2067780 1.876705 -3.20678 1.876705
    X Variable 1 0.779951 0.1208 6.457746 0.000117 0.5067332 1.053169 0.50673 1.053169

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