Chapter 2

POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2.1 Demographic Transition

70 TOTAL POPULATION IN THAILAND

1998-2017
68

66

64

62

60

58

56
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: http://tiny.cc/wqcsdz

YEAR URBAN RURAL TOTAL POPULATION

1998 18.9689 M 42.6284 M 61.5973 M
1999 19.2957 M 43.0109 M 62.3067 M
2000 19.7632 M 43.1949 M 62.958 M
2001 20.6973 M 42.846 M 63.5433 M
2002 21.6433 M 42.4299 M 64.0732 M
2003 22.5981 M 41.9568 M 64.555 M
2004 23.5672 M 41.435 M 65.0022 M
2005 24.5476 M 40.8778 M 65.4255 M
2006 25.5424 M 40.2818 M 65.8242 M
2007 26.5471 M 39.6485 M 66.1956 M
2008 27.5626 M 38.9832 M 55.5458 M
2009 28.588 M 38.2939 M 66.8819 M
2010 29.6256 M 37.5832 M 67.2088 M
2011 30.6546 M 36.8755 M 67.5301 M
2012 31.6709 M 36.1731 M 67.844 M
2013 32.6698 M 35.4732 M 68.1431 M
2014 33.6433 M 34.7735 M 68.4168 M
2015 34.5856 M 34.072 M 98.6576 M
2016 35.4923 M 33.3713 M 68.8635 M
 According to World Population Review (2019), the Thai Ministry of Foreign suggest that
with unregistered individuals added to the final total, the Thailand population in 2014 was actually
closer to 70 million, an increase that could also affect future estimates as well. As countries become
more developed, it is natural to see a decline in fertility rates and an increase in its aging population
over time. Thailand has gone through this transition faster than most countries, with the average
number of children born to the typical woman dropping from 6 to 2 in less than twenty years
between 1970 and 1990.

Fertility rates in Thailand are now 30% below replacement level, although this doesn’t
mean that Thailand isn’t growing. Something known as population momentum, which results from
a fairly high concentration of people of childbearing age, should result in slow natural increases
for the next decade (World Population Review, 2019)..

There is a diverse range of ethnic groups within the country but for the purposes of the
overall Thailand population, these have only really been separated into three main groups.
Estimates claim that of the total population, 75% were Ethnic Thai, 14% were Thai Chinese, and
3% were ethnically Malay. The remainder of the population falls into small minority groups
including hill tribes, Khmers and Mons (World Population Review, 2019).

Declining fertility rates have led to a declining number of births, and to a changing
population structure as these smaller birth cohorts move up the population pyramid. The proportion
of children has been declining for decades. Even the United Nations’ low projection, which
appears more likely to track emerging fertility trends than the United Nations medium projection,
overestimates the annual number of births in 2010, as the actual number recorded was around
800,000 rather than 970,000 as in the low projection (United Nations Population Fund, 2011).

2.2 Age Structure

 AGE S T RUCT URE (B O T H S E XE S )
1911 -2017
0-14 years 15-64 years 65 years and older

71.77

71.73

71.56
71.41

71.31
56.6

56.2
54.3

53.5
52.6

52.2

50
45.1
43.2
42.5

42.3
39.1
38.4
40

40

31.9

25.2

20.39

19.58

18.78

18.26

17.32
11.37
10.18
9.49
8.65
8.2
8.7
6.7
5.7

5.4
4.9

4.9

4.9
4.7

4.6

4.3
4.2

5.8
1911 1919 1929 1937 1947 1960 1970 3.5
1980 1990 2000 2007 2009 2012 2014 2017

Sources: https://bit.ly/2pkliPj (1911-1970)

https://bit.ly/2nMQ6Yw (1980-1990)
https://bit.ly/2pfkDOY (2007-2017)

As Thailand’s population growth is predicted to decline further in the near future, it is the
changing population structure that is emerging as an issue of critical importance – changes in age
structure, educational and skill structure, state of health and geographical distribution (United
Nations Population Fund, 2011). In 2017, about 17.32 percent of Thailand's total population were
aged 0 to 14 years (Plecher, 2019).

Population ageing in Thailand is occurring faster than it did in the past in more developed
countries in the West. The rapid growth in the numbers of older persons and the increasing share
that they represent of the total population is attributable mainly to the rapid decline in fertility.
Improved life expectancy is also contributing to the ageing of Thailand’s population ((United
Nations Population Fund, 2011).

2.3 Dependency Burdens

 AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO
1911-2016

100
89.7 86.9 91.6 89.02 90.45 85.24
90 84.1
80 76.3 77.9 76
70 63.41
60 53.21
50 43.93
40.04 40.07
40
30
20
10
0
1911 1919 1929 1937 1947 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 2007 2016

Sources: https://bit.ly/2pkliPj (1911-1970)

https://bit.ly/2pcLtHt (1975-2016)

The dependency ratio is a numerical measure of the economic burden imposed on the
working population who must ultimately support people who are not in the labour force. The old
age dependency ratio is an indicator roughly quantifies the demographic weight of burden that the
current working age population has to bear in order to support the older persons. Changes in age
structure that are taking place in Thailand translate into changes in dependency ratios defined in
terms of age groups.

The Age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents--people younger than 15 or older than
64--to the working-age population--those ages 15-64. The latest value for Age dependency ratio
(% of working-age population) in Thailand was 40.07 as of 2016. Over the past 56 years, the value
for this indicator has fluctuated between 90.72 in 1969 and 39.09 in 2010 (index mundi, 2017).

The total dependency ratio combines the child and aged dependency ratios. It is an
important measure of relationship between the size of working-age population (aged 15-59 years)
and the dependent populations of children (under age 15 years) and the elderly (aged 60 and over).
The ratio highlights the burden on the working-age population to simultaneously support both
children and elderly. In 1960, the total dependency ratio was 91.60 %, of which almost all of the
dependent population were children. As birth rates fall, child dependency ratio declines and,
thereby contributes to an reduction of the total dependency ratio. During the process of populations
ageing aged dependency ratio increase. This combination of the trends contributes to an initial
reduction and thereafter, a dramatic increase in the total dependency ratio which is projected to
occur in 2010. In the twenty –first century the aged dependency ratio will be inevitably higher than
the child dependency ratio.

2.4 Policy Implemented

 Population and Community Development Association

According to Casburn (2014), in 2000, the number of people aged 0-4 were
approximately 2.25 million, the policy is predicted to decrease this to 1.0 by 2020. The
population pyramid for 2000 the number of people over 65 was a small proportion of the
population, however by 2020 it is significantly increased showing the population is ageing.
The main concepts of the policy were: free contraception, trained family-planning
specialists, economic-fueled appeal and government campaigns encouraging gender
equality - especially among rural communities.

By 1974 an estimated 25 percent of all married couples of childbearing age were

using modern contraceptives, one of the highest percentages for developing countries. The
population growth rate, 3.4 percent per annum in the 1960s, had been reduced to 1.9 percent
per annum by 1986. The goal for the late 1980s was a growth rate of 1.5 percent. By 1999,
contraceptives were being used by 72% of people, a huge increase from just 15% in 1970.
On top of this, women averaged 1.7 children and population growth was only 0.8% a year.
Relationships between men and women in Thailand are more egalitarian than in most of
the developing world. Thai spouses share equally in decisions regarding children, family
life, and contraception (Casburn, 2014).

Moreover, Thailand was amongst the first countries to use the intravenous
contraceptive DMPA (Medroxyprogesterone Acetate) and still remains one of its largest
users. The contraceptive services were extended to even remote rural areas. Due to the
consequences of increasing-overpopulation of Thailand, the central government, with
support from international agencies, concerted effort to limit population growth. In 1968
 the cabinet sanctioned a family-planning service, and by March 1970 a national population
policy was announced. The official slogan "Many Children Make You Poor" and the
economic arguments for keeping the number of children at two per family found
acceptance among both city and rural populations (Casburn, 2014).


 The 1st National Plan for Older Persons
The 1st National Plan for Older Persons : 1982 – 2001, is the first long-term Plan of
Thailand for 20 years’ period issued in order to determine the significant guidance and
scope to develop the Thai elderly in the following arenas:
- Health;
- Education;
- Social and income stability;
- Social and cultural integration; and
- Social welfare provision.
The establishment of such long-term 1st National Plan for Older Persons can explicitly reveal
Thailand’s intention to initiate its precise policies and plans on the elderly, aiming this National
Plan to serve as the instrument to promote, support and develop guidelines on the entire
implementation of work on the elderly.

The Declaration on Thailand’s Older Persons

In 1999, Thailand made its Declaration on Older Persons which is the same year
when the United Nations proclaimed as the International Year of Older Persons. That
Declaration made by the Thai government can be deemed as its intent and recognition of
promotion, development and provision of chance to older persons in all contexts through
collaboration and interaction of all parts and sectors, either the government, the private or the
public including the organizations with objectives of public interests. This to implement more
explicit and efficient tasks. Under the Declaration on Thailand’s Older Persons, it is
clearly mentioned, in particular, protection of older persons in health care, living their life
with value and dignity, happy family life, receiving of care, protection from abandonment,
educational and learning chance, as well as social integration.